Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

You're responding to someone who felt Winston was going to be the God of QBs and stated he'd trade an entire draft for him so keep that in mind.  I'm afraid you've hit the nail on the head.  There are some who have confirmation bias; they said Allen would not work and will hang onto anything to support that because they would rather brag about being right than see the kid succeed.  Of course you also have the other extreme, and equally invalid.

 

I think any objective appraisal of Allen would say a couple things.  One, he has work to do to become a consistent NFL QB.  Second, he's shown more that many thought he would as a rookie.  Third, he needs more help around him to reach his potential.

 

I think history tells us first round QBs have around a 50% chance of success.  Allen is no exception.

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

Come on bandit.  You know better.  Someone will find something to be upset about.

 

In terms of stats, he's been pretty bad.  In terms of the eye test IMO, he's done more than any other QB in the past few years with less talent around him.  I'll say this, watching EJ, Peterman and Taylor over the past few years, any time there was an offensive penalty it basically felt like they were going 3 and out without question simply because they all went with the easy checkdowns.  Allen doesn't go for completions, he goes for the 1st down.  It's a double edge sword for sure but I like the way he has been competing.

[jrober38]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by jrober38

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

 

The difference between you and I is that I watched every throw from his Wyoming career multiple times--I don't need to read someone else's scouting report and then look for traits that match it.

 

You again are showing that you are married to your preconception--you've made definitive declarations about him and are invested in that outcome. That's a shame, because it probably prevents you from having any objectivity on the issue.

 

I mean, you're here telling me that I've anointed him as the guy, when I've done nothing of the sort. I have, however, called out much of the board for their confirmation biases.

[BananaB]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

Who? 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The difference between you and I is that I watched every throw from his Wyoming career multiple times--I don't need to read someone else's scouting report and then look for traits that match it.

 

You again are showing that you are married to your preconception--you've made definitive declarations about him and are invested in that outcome. That's a shame, because it probably prevents you from having any objectivity on the issue.

 

I mean, you're here telling me that I've anointed him as the guy, when I've done nothing of the sort. I have, however, called out much of the board for their confirmation biases.

 

I thought Allen would be bad, and he's been the worst passer in the league among starting QBs.

 

You're acting like he's outperformed what I thought he'd do, but he's been exactly as I expected which is why I'm so hard on him.

 

You guys get so bent out of shape for me not giving the worst QB in the league a pass. It's so weird. 

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

Just FYI: the guy you’re responding to said last page Newton’s completion% this season is due to McCaffrey and not new OC Norv Turner despite the fact that McCaffrey was there last year and that they’re running almost a completely revamped offensive system in Carolina. Wouldn’t bother.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, BananaB said:

 

Who? 

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

Winston too.  The guy who you have traded an entire draft for.  But we should bow down at your wisdom.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I thought Allen would be bad, and he's been the worst passer in the league among starting QBs.

 

You're acting like he's outperformed what I thought he'd do, but he's been exactly as I expected which is why I'm so hard on him.

 

You guys get so bent out of shape for me not giving the worst QB in the league a pass. It's so weird. 

 

Actually, you said he'd be terrible. 

 

You said he'd be the same guy as he was at Wyoming.

 

He's neither of those things.

 

You also call him the worst starting QB in the league as though it's a fact and not an opinion.

 

You're either incapable of discerning opinion from fact, or you truly are so invested in your evaluation that you won't consider the idea that you could be wrong.

 

If Allen were anywhere near as bad as you say, he'd be out of the league by now. Easily.

 

Instead, he's actually outperformed the rookie efforts of guys like Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubiksy. But don't let that get in the way of crowning yourself right.

 

Allen has looked like a rookie--which makes sense. So have Rosen and Darnold and Jackson (and Mayfield at times).

 

So let's see here: Allen is somehow the same guy as he was at Wyoming, but he also performed better as a rookie than guys that were supposedly better than him in college.

 

Those two ideas are not in concert with each other 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Jacksonville did it with an elite defense.

 

Jax last year had #5 offense on points for.  #1 rush yards.  Elite D helped, but was far from the whole story.

I think the point folks are trying to make is there's more to a team's offensive success than passer rating.

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Baltimore is 14th in scoring so I'm not sure what stats you're looking at. 

 

Your claim was " You can't expect the Bills to be in the top half of the league in scoring without a team QB Rating above 90... "

14th with an 84 rating fits that criterion

 

I'll give you another:

2012 SB champions Ravens.  Joe Flacco 59.7% completion, passer rating 87.7

[BananaB]

17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

 

I wouldn’t compare any of those guys to Allen. All had a totally different highschool and college background. All have some of same attributes  but none are even close to Allen’s level. 

 

I don’t think you can compare anybody to Allen. Kid is a prospect like no other.  I do believe if we build an offensive line and get a few solid WRs we can win a lot of games with him with him. If he does improve on some of weaknesses along the way I think he can make this team great.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think any objective appraisal of Allen would say a couple things.  One, he has work to do to become a consistent NFL QB.  Second, he's shown more that many thought he would as a rookie.  Third, he needs more help around him to reach his potential.

 

Yes on all counts.  And in addition, I don't think anyone saw the rushing ability.

 

58 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think history tells us first round QBs have around a 50% chance of success.  Allen is no exception.

 

At best.  I've seen several analyses and done one of my own.  All slice and dice different ways and reach about the same conclusion - 50% at best, maybe a bit higher in the first 3 picks, maybe less chance later on.

 

And that's defining success as "a guy who can legit play in the NFL with the right pieces around him", not "the second coming of Big Ben with a dash of Aaron Rodgers on the side"

 

 

[JoPar_v2]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

 

I mean, Allen certainly not great; in fact you can (and do) argue he’s not even good yet. But to say he’s the same exact guy that he was at Wyoming is a bit off-base. By all accounts, Allen’s footwork has improved immensely since he’s got into the league. And that is one of the most identified weaknesses of his coming out of college. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes on all counts.  And in addition, I don't think anyone saw the rushing ability.

 

 

At best.  I've seen several analyses and done one of my own.  All slice and dice different ways and reach about the same conclusion - 50% at best, maybe a bit higher in the first 3 picks, maybe less chance later on.

 

And that's defining success as "a guy who can legit play in the NFL with the right pieces around him", not "the second coming of Big Ben with a dash of Aaron Rodgers on the side"

 

 

Good points.  I don't know if he makes it or not.  What I have a problem with in this and other threads are:  

1.  Reactive belief of stats without a true understanding of what they may or may not mean

2. Folks claiming some Nostradamus-like insight as to the future of this kid without any real idea what they're talking about, confusing their opinion with fact.

 

All rookie QBs go through growth periods, some longer than others.  Some have better teams around them, some not.  The last and maybe only rookie QB I can think of that had "it" from day one was Marino.  All others had ups and downs as they figured things out.

 

Let Allen play, let him learn.  Quit dissecting every single pass as if that definitively makes him great or terrible.  

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

I find all of this over-analysis of a rookie QB By the pundits to be a bit silly., but here are a few thoughts:

 

1. I remember back in the 2005-2010 timeframe when the Bills would scrimmage the Packers in the preseason. Prior to the 2006 season, the two teams went toe-to-toe, and I remember at the time being so happy that the Bills had made the move up in the 2004 draft to get JP Losman rather than wait until 2005 to take Aaron Rodgers. During those 2006 drills and scrimmage, Losman (going into his 3rd season) looked so much more polished than did Rodgers (going into his second year). Doh!

 

2. For whatever reason, Josh Allen was a very polarizing figure headed into this 2018 draft. I am not sure why. Maybe it had something to do with the old guard (arm strength, measureables, prototypical physical traits, etc.) versus the new guard (analytics). The old guard cited Allen as a generational talent; the new guard did not see a great translation to the NFL based on his college stats. Guys like Mel Kiper and Phil Simms thought he should be the #1 overall pick. Other pundits did not even view him as a 1st round pick. The typical book on him was that he was going to be a "Boom or Bust" NFL QB. 

 

3. This polarization has led many of these pundits to remain steadfast (stubborn) in their evaluation. Rookie QBs are going to make rookie mistakes -- and the Allen detractors love clinging to the missteps he has made in each of his games. Of course, the Allen apologists are happy to blame every mistake he makes on the play calling, poor WRs, OL, etc.

 

4. The completion percentage remains a thing that the detractors refuse to let go. There certainly is some merit to the fact that Allen does not throw with the precision that a Drew Brees, for example, does. He didn't at Wyoming, and he has yet to demonstrate that he will in the NFL. That said, there are some mitigating factors, including a poor supporting cast. The one thing that no one wants to point out is that the types of passes that Allen thrives on are by their very nature high-risk, downfield passes, which naturally leads to a lower completion percentage. Trent Green and Bruce Ariens talked about this in the New England game. Josh's tendency is to always want to make that big play, when sometimes the smaller, more "sure thing" play is available.  Once he starts to better understand this, he will get better AND his completion % will improve. Again, he may never be a high 60's percentage passer, but that does not necessarily mean he cannot be successful.

 

5. Josh Allen really has been thrown to the wolves. I was one of those who believed going into the season that based on his rawness he would be a good candidate to sit the entire rookie season out and watch from the sidelines. I feared that (in addition to his lack of polish) that the less-than-adequate supporting cast would place him in an impossible position to succeed. That has largely been the case. However, rather than having his confidence shot the young QB has done a remarkable job of remaining poised and rising above it all. I like what I see in terms of the body language, confidence and leadership. Since returning from his injury, there has been little to no running game to speak of and with less-than-adequate receivers around him, Allen has had to do a great deal on his own. His future success will depend on finding that middle ground of competing on every play -- but at the same time learning to take what the defense is willing to give him.

 

6. One thing no one talks much about  are the intangibles that I just alluded to. From what I have seen so far, Allen has these in spades. You can sense that his teammates -- even veterans like Zo and Shady -- love his competitive leadership. And it doesn't sound like the "wishful thinking" sound bites we used to get in the days of Losman or EJ. He also seems to be very coachable and able to learn from his mistakes on the fly. (The Cover1 guys did a great job of breaking this down when going over the film from the New England game). The guys that have been busts (Leaf, Russell, etc.) all had fatal mental or character flaws. I don't see that with Allen. The physical goods are obvious, he seems like a smart young man -- and by all accounts he is willing to work to get better. I am not saying that the "Boom" tag will ever apply (although I hope it does) -- I just don't see the dreaded "Bust" tag ever coming into play. That is provided, of course, that Allen can avoid reckless play and protect himself from injury.

 

7. I must admit that I was ambivalent about the Josh Allen pick. I do not pretend to be a master of scouting college QBs and projecting whether or not they will ever evolve into being a quality NFL QB. To those who loved the pick, I say be patient. He is far from a finished product -- and the Bills would do well to set him up for success by improving his supporting cast in the off-season. To those who hated the pick, I say to also be patient and remember that even the most vocal Allen supporters acknowledged that he would have to go through some growing pains before getting better. If he can master the small things (game management stuff), he has so much upside with the big things (downfield threat and mobility) to truly be special.

 

Well said! 

[Jrb1979]

IMO they should stop trying to make him a pocket passer as its something he is not. The best games he has played is the ones he ran the ball a lot with some passes thrown in. 

[WideNine]

2 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

IMO they should stop trying to make him a pocket passer as its something he is not. The best games he has played is the ones he ran the ball a lot with some passes thrown in. 

 

Not sure they are trying to make him a pocket passer as there have been plenty of designed roll-outs and QB option plays called.

 

There are times (the NE game is a perfect example) where a QB is kept in the pocket by the defensive design of your opponent. Belichick loves doing that to rookie QBs because pretty much all rookies have a comfort level of falling back to running the ball when they do not like what they see or get pressured in the pocket. Getting QBs in general and rookie QB's in particular to be "uncomfortable" and out of rhythm is the goal. Also, if I were a betting man and had to bet on Buffalo's receivers catching a deep throw or Allen running wild down the field, the safer bet would be to guard against the latter and trust your DB's and the Bills receivers to not make the catches.

 

It is games like NE that force the need for honing patience and pocket-passing skills. Josh will need to be able to adjust to taking what defenses give him - if it is underneath options from the pocket, so be it. Having some kind of quasi-consistent running game will also help build that patience and the sense that the entire offense is not predicated entirely on his ability to push the ball downfield with throws.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

It's bad enough that when I watch NFL games I see great catch after great catch that I NEVER see for the Bills.  But now as the college Bowl season is heating up I've seen more spectacular catches by the college kids then I see by Bills skill players.  It seems that like the NFL all it takes for these college QB's is to get the ball near their receivers and these play makers do the rest.

 

Anyone who underestimates the impact of NOT having skill players who can make these kinds of catches is fooling themselves. 

[Zerovoltz]

......I've seen enough of Allen to believe that he offers HOPE still.  You are going to upgrade the roster.  He is going to get an offseason to work on issues.  He DOES have intangibles, can run, leadership etc....  The Broncos Giants drafted Saquon Barkely and the Broncos took Bradley Chubb in the top 5 of the past draft.  BOTH of those guys are very very good football players.  And both the Broncos and the Giants SUCK.  They didn't have a QB, they didn't draft a QB, and now they are facing a 2019 Draft that MIGHT have ONE QB (Haskins) worth going after....if they can even get him.  2020 is a LONG LONG way away.  I would much rather be the Bills heading into 2019 with Allen, the hope that he provides...the idea you are going to load up and try and be great as opposed to the certain dread of facing another season of Case Keenum or Eli Manning...KNOWING there is NO HOPE.  Brady is about done.  You know Tannehill isn't a difference maker....it's the bills and Jets for AFC supremecy for the next 5 years at least.  

 

There is A LOT to look forward to in 2019.  If you hadn't taken Allen in 2018, you'd be sitting here knowing 19 was going to be a waste of time...no QB to get, etc etc....What the Bills have that so many teams do not heading into 2019 is a chance to be something good and special...the Broncos, Giants, Bucs, Dolphins, Lions, Bengals, Jags....they don't have that.  Dread. Misery.  Despiar.....no hope.  Allen = hope.

[Seventeen]

5 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

 

Allen would be 6-4 as a starter had Clay not dropped the pass in Miami or Peterman screwed up the Houston game. Not too shabby for the toolbox he was handed.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Looper

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Again, why are fans sold on Allen being the answer? 

[Dr.Sack]

I’ll look to one statistic to check for Allen’s progression and that is completion percentage. They say the pro game is harder than college and the numbers bear that out, he’s gone from 56.2% in college to 51.7%. I never thought I’d say this about a QB but he needs to hit his checkdown more, while also getting the ball out faster as opposed to always trying to hit the homerun.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, BananaB said:

 

I wouldn’t compare any of those guys to Allen. All had a totally different highschool and college background. All have some of same attributes  but none are even close to Allen’s level. 

 

I don’t think you can compare anybody to Allen. Kid is a prospect like no other.  I do believe if we build an offensive line and get a few solid WRs we can win a lot of games with him with him. If he does improve on some of weaknesses along the way I think he can make this team great.

How is Allen much different than Cardale Jones? 

[Success]

5 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

Not what I’ve seen.  He is hardly all over the place with his throws.  A poor receiving corps has hurt the “stats” - lots of drops, and can you point to even one great catch?

 

I judge how guys play - not scouting reports.  Allen could easily still be the best overall QB to come out of this draft.

12 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Again, why are fans sold on Allen being the answer? 

We haven’t had a QB like Allen for a very long time.  

 

Get the the man just one great receiver.

[BananaB]

37 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

How is Allen much different than Cardale Jones? 

 

Jones was surrounded by talent in highschool and college. Still couldn’t keep his job. Sure they are the same size, both have some mobility and a big arm but Allen has proven under some of the worst situations he can succeed. He did it in college and is now doing it in the NFL.  Jones had a good start in college when two guys ahead of him got hurt. But proved over a short  amount of time he struggled in the best situations.  Probably why he was third on the depth chart to begin with and benched in his final year.

Edited December 30, 2018 by BananaB

[Scott7975]

Are there any QBs in the league that are successful with a receiver core that looks like this?

 

Foster undrafted

Bolden undrafted

Thompson undrafted 

Scott undrafted 

Croom undrafted

Logan Thomas 4th round pick

McKenzie 5th round pick 

McCloud 6th round pick

 

Zay Jones 2nd round pick

 

We literally field a team of practice squad WRs.

 

Most of these guys bounced around the league never having success before coming here.  A couple of them were even cut from our own team before bringing them back during the season.  I don't think many QBs would have much success fielding that team of targets.  Put that together with one of the worst Olines in the league and a running game that outside of Allen was pretty much non existent.

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah... QBs make the receiver.  If that were true then teams like KC and Rams would not have gone out of their ways to surround their QBs with better receivers.  Brady always plays worse without Edelman and Gronk.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2018 by Scott7975

[Ayjent]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just realize this is Weak Sauce around here. 

 

If you want to say "I think Allen is better because I've watched Allen, Darnold, and Rosen and I think Allen looks better", you'll still be asked in what way your eyeballs think Allen looks better.

 

But if you feel he's better in some quantifiable way, you really need to 'stand and deliver' and justify your take - or prepare to be (civilly) mocked and memed.
 

I can and would if it was worth my time...my time is simply worth more than that.  Mocked by people who can’t see the massive waste of effort in trying to cherry pick stats or justify their bias with articles?  I’ve stood behind why I’ve changed my opinion on Josh and I’ll stand behind what I’ve said and seen. Can I look up a bunch of stats or go through play by play to demonstrate where excels compared to Darnold and Rosen? I can and capably.  Do I want to?  Not really.  I’d rather help others with real struggles in life, make music, spend time with family, watch a movie, etc.   

 

For instance, Darnold and Rosen under pressure may have better passing stats but Allen has more big plays if you count ground yards and has extended plays much better when facing pressure - I know that will bear out statistically, but those aren’t easy stats to come about.  

[VW82]

FWIW ESPN Stats & Information claims that Allen's accuracy issues are actually getting worse which is surprising as it feels like he's been improving in that regard. Take it with a grain of salt and add it to the ever increasing pile. 

 

"Allen's rate of off-target throws, as charted by ESPN Stats & Information, has increased from 19.5 percent (seventh-most in the NFL) through Week 6 to 27.3 percent since Week 12, the league's highest rate."

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/32766/teammates-see-progress-in-josh-allen-despite-stagnant-stats

 

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So when Jacksonville finished top 5 in PPG last year with a team passer rating of 84, that was a figment of everyone's imagination?

 

Or how about Baltimore scoring in the top 10 this year with an 84 rating?

 

Nice way of dodging the question by the way 

 

I don't make a habit of helping out Spurs fans in their argument... but to me the response to this is consistency. Can you get to 10, 11 even 12 wins once or twice with a 58% passer with a sub 90 passer rating? 

 

Yes - you can. Can you build a consistent year on year contender that way in the modern NFL? To me the answer is no. Josh needs to make sure that at least one of those numbers is consistently high (60% + or 90+ passer rating) if he is going to have a career where he becomes a true franchise QB. Because over the long term I agree with jrober that those numbers do correlate with ppg and ultimately wins. 

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

So tired of this thread.  some people obviously want to see the #7 Bills pick flame out, just so they ca pat themselves on the back.

 

The eye test has seen significant improvement and cheering that with proper coaching and a competent offence around him we will see a very good qb.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Billsfan1972

[thebandit27]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't make a habit of helping out Spurs fans in their argument... but to me the response to this is consistency. Can you get to 10, 11 even 12 wins once or twice with a 58% passer with a sub 90 passer rating? 

 

Yes - you can. Can you build a consistent year on year contender that way in the modern NFL? To me the answer is no. Josh needs to make sure that at least one of those numbers is consistently high (60% + or 90+ passer rating) if he is going to have a career where he becomes a true franchise QB. Because over the long term I agree with jrober that those numbers do correlate with ppg and ultimately wins. 

 

 

 

If his point were about seeking consistency, then I'd have accepted his argument. It wasn't.

 

It was an arbitrary line drawn in the sand and set as a hit-it-or-he's-a-bust benchmark, which is silly.

 

As you know, I admire folks like yourself that are willing to objectively evaluate Allen despite not liking him as a prospect. Just understand that you're a bit of a white elephant in that regard 

[Billsfan1972]

And by the way watching college football yesterday and the in the two semi-final games saw catches (or adjustments on passes) again by kids who won't make the NFL that no Bill has made this season.

 

Just unbelievable when you think about it.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Billsfan1972

[thebandit27]

13 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Again, why are fans sold on Allen being the answer? 

 

Who is saying that?

 

 The only people that seem to be drawling conclusions are the folks that have declared him a guaranteed bust

[Maine-iac]

12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Are there any QBs in the league that are successful with a receiver core that looks like this?

 

Foster undrafted

Bolden undrafted

Thompson undrafted 

Scott undrafted 

Croom undrafted

Logan Thomas 4th round pick

McKenzie 5th round pick 

McCloud 6th round pick

 

Zay Jones 2nd round pick

 

We literally field a team of practice squad WRs.

 

Most of these guys bounced around the league never having success before coming here.  A couple of them were even cut from our own team before bringing them back during the season.  I don't think many QBs would have much success fielding that team of targets.  Put that together with one of the worst Olines in the league and a running game that outside of Allen was pretty much non existent.

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah... QBs make the receiver.  If that were true then teams like KC and Rams would not have gone out of their ways to surround their QBs with better receivers.  Brady always plays worse without Edelman and Gronk.

 

 

I'll preface this by saying I really like Allen but that said this is the same group from last year.  Funny how the song has changed from horrible QB to horrible WR's.  Granted I thought it was horrible WR's the whole time but fans love to play to a narrative.

[Philly’sFinest]

It’s pretty simple to me.

 

Josh Allen has demonstrated that he has everything you look for in a franchise QB. He’s a smart kid that’s tough. He works hard, leads by example, motivates teammates, and is dedicated to his craft. Not even mentioning the god given physical talent he has.

 

He has also shown improvement on the field while playing on an offense devoid of talent at receiver, a poor Oline, and zero running game. His short pass and dump off game is his biggest weakness, and his unwillingness to utilize that part of his game effectively hurts. He has shown the ability to hang in the pocket and make big throws, and he has generally seemed pretty poised and accurate when throwing downfield. The kid looks to make plays...whether it’s taking shots downfield, or using his mobility...this is something I love about him. 

 

Please don’t try and coach this out of Allen! Let him figure out that he needs to find the right balance himself. I believe he is smart enough to do so. Also, please get this kid some HELP! I’m talking upgrades at C, G, T, WR, TE, and RB. Every one of these positions needs to be addressed in some fashion. It was inexcusable to field such a poor offense out on the field this season. 

 

Give him this offseason to work on what he needs. Surround him with some guys that can catch and give him some protection and make some lanes for the run game, and then we will really find out exactly what we have.

 

i believe we just may have our guy. Please give the kid some time and some help.

[Maine-iac]

Allen totally reminds me of a less refined Big Ben.  Ben used to run more (not as much as Allen) and the team around him was much better.  The Steelers defense was better than ours, the running game and O-line was better, and the pass catchers were much much better.  Ben was not setting records passing his first few years but he made big throws and big runs and with the team around him was a winner.  Allen is always looking downfield.  As the game slows down and he learns the art of taking some more easy throws his completion rate will increase and his interceptions should drop.  That said he doesn't have to be as efficient as Brees or Peyton to be a great QB.  Great QB's are defined by a few plays at key times and not necessarily having 70 percent complete.

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I'll preface this by saying I really like Allen but that said this is the same group from last year.  Funny how the song has changed from horrible QB to horrible WR's.  Granted I thought it was horrible WR's the whole time but fans love to play to a narrative.

 

It's the same group from last year?  Um, no.  The OL is significantly worse after losing Wood, Incognito and Glenn and most of the WR's are 1st or 2nd year players.  And Josh is a rookie whereas Tyrod was a 7th year veteran. 

17 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Allen totally reminds me of a less refined Big Ben.  Ben used to run more (not as much as Allen) and the team around him was much better.  The Steelers defense was better than ours, the running game and O-line was better, and the pass catchers were much much better.  Ben was not setting records passing his first few years but he made big throws and big runs and with the team around him was a winner.  Allen is always looking downfield.  As the game slows down and he learns the art of taking some more easy throws his completion rate will increase and his interceptions should drop.  That said he doesn't have to be as efficient as Brees or Peyton to be a great QB.  Great QB's are defined by a few plays at key times and not necessarily having 70 percent complete.

 

Yeah I think that Josh is looking for the big play on every down because he realizes he has little help.  IMHO it's easier to learn to take the dumpoffs than it is to look downfield for the big play.

[Maine-iac]

Just now, Doc said:

 

It's the same group from last year?  Um, no.  The OL is significantly worse after losing Wood, Incognito and Glenn and most of the WR's are 1st or 2nd year players.  And Josh is a rookie whereas Tyrod was a 7th year veteran. 

Yup ........... completely what I expected.  I'm not going to argue those points with you.  It will not make a difference.

[nedboy7]

The fan base cares more about QB potential (not even stats) than wins.  Yeah.  Good stuff.