HC/QB Combos that win championships, have done it very quickly, this century.

[PlayoffsPlease]

There have been 11 different teams to win the Super Bowl since the 2001 Superbowl.  This table shows the tenure of the head coach, the GM and the QB before winning their first championship.    There are two outliers, Bill Cowher getting 14 years before winning a championship, and Peyton Manning taking 9 years as QB for the colts.  If those two are removed, the average HC tenure and  QB tenure before winning is almost exactly three seasons.  Important note, this is to win the super bowl, not to become "competitive" . The facts strongly suggest that if a team is not even competetive after three years of a head coach/ QB combo, it is not likely that combo is going to ever win a championship. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

about a week and a half...

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 minutes ago, no name said:

about a week and a half...

 

...so we're 3 1/2 weeks overdue then, right?............

[Jasovon]

I think looking at teams around the league like the Eagles, Rams, Bears, maybe vikings; you can build a championship calibre team in 2 seasons. 

 

Season 1: Get QB in draft and then give him some on field experience, clear cap space

Season 2: go hard after FA to surround your young gun and try to make a run.

 

 

[White Linen]

It's not about how long - it's about getting it right.  The average time a QB gets to show he's the franchise QB is in the 3-4 year mark and also the head coach gets that much time.  It's a constant starting over that makes it appear it's taking that much time.  

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, White Linen said:

It's not about how long - it's about getting it right.  The average time a QB gets to show he's the franchise QB is in the 3-4 year mark and also the head coach gets that much time.  It's a constant starting over that makes it appear it's taking that much time.  

I’d argue that it’s not constantly starting over, but starting over and continually failing .The amount of time it’s taking is also real, not just an apparition. 

[TPS]

Wentz was drafted in 2016, if that's who you're using there.

 

McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020.  They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP.  They will address O as much as possible next year.

[COTC]

3 years

 

Year 1: review the roster and make the changes coach and gm seem fit. 

 

Year 2: Aquire key players and clear cap space. 

 

Year 3: bring in skill players through FA and draft and make a run. 

 

 

We are in year two, but a year behind. This is what concerns me about our fo. If they don’t improve on last year, they may not be kept. 

Edited October 20, 2018 by COTC

[PlayoffsPlease]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

Wentz was drafted in 2016, if that's who you're using there.

 

McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020.  They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP.  They will address O as much as possible next year.

Foles was in his first year back with the Eagles and that coach.   He is listed as the QB on the end of year roster, which is what I used.  But Wentz or Foles, the years don't change much. 

35 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...so we're 3 1/2 weeks overdue then, right?............

I saw the tweedle dee response. Then saw this tweedle dum response.  The OP is simply a chart of data.  Not sure why you have such a silly snarky response. 

[TPS]

2 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Foles was in his first year back with the Eagles and that coach.   He is listed as the QB on the end of year roster, which is what I used.  But Wentz or Foles, the years don't change much. 

I saw the tweedle dee response. Then saw this tweedle dum response.  The OP is simply a chart of data.  Not sure why you have such a silly snarky response. 

As you can tell, I wasn't sure. It does matter if you're talking about building from scratch and drafting your own QB, as the Bills are doing.  Appreciate the data though.

[Fadingpain]

It doesn't really take as long as some Bills fans think.

 

And while on the topic, it helps that winning an NFL championship is probably the easiest championship to win in N. American major league sports.

 

A Stanley Cup being by far the hardest.

 

You really don't need to get on much of a roll or have much of a hot streak to suddenly find yourself in the AFC championship game, or the Superbowl, or as the Superbowl champion.  Any of which would be an incredible feat around WNY.

 

 

[offyourocker]

Statistic analysis.  Take away the 30% of the data that does not fit my narrative goal for reason.  Then show the stats clearly back my narrative.

[Doc Brown]

45 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

It doesn't really take as long as some Bills fans think.

 

And while on the topic, it helps that winning an NFL championship is probably the easiest championship to win in N. American major league sports.

 

A Stanley Cup being by far the hardest.

 

You really don't need to get on much of a roll or have much of a hot streak to suddenly find yourself in the AFC championship game, or the Superbowl, or as the Superbowl champion.  Any of which would be an incredible feat around WNY.

 

 

Harder to make the playoffs though compared to the NBA and NHL.  Also, a hard cap makes it harder to buy a championship team like you often can in baseball and to a lesser extent basketball.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Foles was in his first year back with the Eagles and that coach.   He is listed as the QB on the end of year roster, which is what I used.  But Wentz or Foles, the years don't change much. 

I saw the tweedle dee response. Then saw this tweedle dum response.  The OP is simply a chart of data.  Not sure why you have such a silly snarky response. 

 

...congratulations on STILL being able to comprehend it......quite impressive IMO............

[iinii]

It depends on the process.

[CaptnCoke11]

Soon as you get a good QB

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Not great at math, can someone crunch the numbers for the average if you don’t remove the 2 outliers mentioned? Also, what about personnel variables as in, a franchise type QB versus a Trent Dilfer type? 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, iinii said:

It depends on the process.

 

...OR....2099 whichever wins out first............

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Not a good idea to ask Bills fans that question.

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

There have been 11 different teams to win the Super Bowl since the 2001 Superbowl.  This table shows the tenure of the head coach, the GM and the QB before winning their first championship.    There are two outliers, Bill Cowher getting 14 years before winning a championship, and Peyton Manning taking 9 years as QB for the colts.  If those two are removed, the average HC tenure and  QB tenure before winning is almost exactly three seasons.  Important note, this is to win the super bowl, not to become "competitive" . The facts strongly suggest that if a team is not even competetive after three years of a head coach/ QB combo, it is not likely that combo is going to ever win a championship. 

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this.  It's an interesting concept to examine.

A few things I would like to point out however:

 

1.  Removing the two "outliers" from the list completely defeats the purpose of a statistical analysis.  There are only 11-12 relevant data points to begin with, and you are basically removing 15-20% of the results from that small amount. 

 

2.  The quarterback list is partially misleading, because veteran QBs are listed by their tenure with a team, instead of how many years they are in the NFL.  For example, Trent Dilfer is listed as winning in year 1, even though it was his 8th year in the league.  Same with Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning (with the Broncos) and Nick Foles. 

 

3.  I find it very interesting that most General Managers don't win a championship with the first coach they hire.  The majority needed at least two attempts to get it right (and some even more).  However, coaches and QBs are usually tied close together.

 

 

 

My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild.

The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5.  It's way too early to know anything.

 

The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season.  They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league.  One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

 

 

[vorpma]

3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this.  It's an interesting concept to examine.

A few things I would like to point out however:

 

1.  Removing the two "outliers" from the list completely defeats the purpose of a statistical analysis.  There are only 11-12 relevant data points to begin with, and you are basically removing 15-20% of the results from that small amount. 

 

2.  The quarterback list is partially misleading, because veteran QBs are listed by their tenure with a team, instead of how many years they are in the NFL.  For example, Trent Dilfer is listed as winning in year 1, even though it was his 8th year in the league.  Same with Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning (with the Broncos) and Nick Foles. 

 

3.  I find it very interesting that most General Managers don't win a championship with the first coach they hire.  The majority needed at least two attempts to get it right (and some even more).  However, coaches and QBs are usually tied close together.

 

 

 

My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild.

The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5.  It's way too early to know anything.

 

The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season.  They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league.  One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

 

 

Well thought post, thanks!

[frostbitmic]

27 years .... We're getting closer.

[downunderbill]

2 hours ago, COTC said:

3 years

 

Year 1: review the roster and make the changes coach and gm seem fit. 

 

Year 2: Aquire key players and clear cap space. 

 

Year 3: bring in skill players through FA and draft and make a run. 

 

 

We are in year two, but a year behind. This is what concerns me about our fo. If they don’t improve on last year, they may not be kept. 

 

Year One works if the cap wasn't previously mismanaged. I don't know the Ins and outs of what was left for the new regime but was it at the stage where stopping, taking massive dead cap hit and starting again was the better option?

What I do know there were some big contacts players weren't living up to.

[SoCal Deek]

How long does it take a typical NFL team?  Or how long will it take the Buffalo Bills? I’ll have to get to you on the latter....

[Scott7975]

Good info.  I will say though that even though the average is 3 years... Half of them are 1-2 years while the other half are 4-5 years.

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020.  They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP.  They will address O as much as possible next year.

 

Maybe McDermott "had a good blue print" for the 1970s or 1980s but this is 2018, and his philosophy of great defense, strong special teams, and a conservative, run heavy run game with limited passing simply isn't sustainable.  Teams that want to win consistently have to be able to score more than 1 offensive TD a game.

 

As for McDermott's supposedly "Super Bowl caliber" defense, that's hyperbole.  The D is good enough to win against limited offensive teams but not against great ones, shown by the Bills got their clocks cleaned by the three of the four good/great offensive teams they played.

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild.

The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5.  It's way too early to know anything.

 

The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season.  They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league.  One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

 

 

 

Ummm ... the Rams canned the coaching staff that ended up "DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category", and Goff was hardly "the WORST quarterback in the league".  More importantly, the Rams GM Les Snead makes the personnel decisions, including hiring the HC, not the backassward way the Bills do things with the HC answering to the owners and the GM subservient to the HC, so there's not much to compare between the Rams and Bills.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2018 by SoTier

[Buffalo Barbarian]

It really depends on how fast the players can learn. It can't be expected that every team turns it around in a year or two.

 

 

[White Linen]

4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

I’d argue that it’s not constantly starting over, but starting over and continually failing .The amount of time it’s taking is also real, not just an apparition. 

 

Sorry, thought that would be fairly obvious.  You wouldn't constantly start over if it was working. 

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, COTC said:

3 years

 

Year 1: review the roster and make the changes coach and gm seem fit. 

 

Year 2: Aquire key players and clear cap space. 

 

Year 3: bring in skill players through FA and draft and make a run. 

 

 

We are in year two, but a year behind. This is what concerns me about our fo. If they don’t improve on last year, they may not be kept. 

 

 

Unfortnately, your year one should be offseason one. Your year two is then free agency and the draft. Your year 3 is at latest offseason two.

 

our process here has been odd at best and if we manage to only slowly blow it up and then not immediately get it right... well...

[JoPar_v2]

5 hours ago, Jasovon said:

I think looking at teams around the league like the Eagles, Rams, Bears, maybe vikings; you can build a championship calibre team in 2 seasons. 

 

Season 1: Get QB in draft and then give him some on field experience, clear cap space

Season 2: go hard after FA to surround your young gun and try to make a run.

 

 

Also: hire a strong GM and let him build his roster; don’t give roster-building responsibilities to a rookie head coach.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think two recent examples give us insight into this exact question...

 

In 2009, Seattle finished the last of the Mike Holgrem era, 5-11 and out of the Playoffs. 

 

Then John Schneider came in from Green Bay and Pete Carroll took over. In the 2010 draft they added Okung, Earl Thomas, Walter Thurmand, Golden Tate and Kam Chancellor in the Draft, and stole Lynch for a bag of chips from Nix. In 2011 they added KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, signed Doug Baldwin as an UDRFA, and signed Brandon Browner in FA. In 2012 they finished the rebuild off with Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson. 

 

Seattle went from 7-9 (2010), 7-9 (2011) to 11-5 and the best defense in the league for the next four seasons. 

 

Stacked three good drafts in a row together.

 

 

Second example, the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2010, the snag Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins in the same draft, trade for Reggie Nelson. 2011, they get both AJ Green and Andy Dalton, signed Adam Jones. In 2012, they draft Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu, George Iloka and picked up Vontaze Burfict as an UDRFA. 

 

Their record climbed from 4-12 to 10-6 in the span, and they started to make the Playoffs routinely.  Their secondary was built on Leon Hall (1st Rounder), Jones (1st Rounder), Nelson (1st Rounder), Nate Clements (1st Rounder) and Terence Newman (1st Rounder). 

 

 

 

To answer the OP - three seasons. If you can stack three great drafts together and get a few FA's/UDRFAs to pan out you have a young team with stars everywhere. 

 

 

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

2-3 years depending on inherited roster and coaching staff. 

[Boatdrinks]

11 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

2-3 years depending on inherited roster and coaching staff. 

Yes. Also depending on what is done with the inherited roster. A roster purge a la McBeane should add about two years to the timetable. 

[TPS]

On 10/20/2018 at 4:46 PM, SoTier said:

 

As for McDermott's supposedly "Super Bowl caliber" defense, that's hyperbole.  The D is good enough to win against limited offensive teams but not against great ones, shown by the Bills got their clocks cleaned by the three of the four good/great offensive teams they played.

 

You are correct sir.