Interesting Take From QB Guru on Allen

[Da webster guy]

This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on.  Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting. He said keep in mind that completion percentage is very different between certain players when you consider the offenses they played in. For example Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year while Josh Allen's film showed his receivers had very little separation. 

He also said you should add 6 to 10 points on to the completion percentage of a quarterback who runs the type of offense that Allen did when compared to an offense like Mayfield's. 

His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't.  These are easy throws that inflate stats. 

    

He went on to say that despite Josh Allen playing in junior college three years ago, the guy is mature and has a magnetic personality, great teammate and he was very high on him being successful in the NFL.   He compared his personality to Fitzy. 

If we do end up taking the kid, I suggest you go play the clip of the interview on the GR website, it will keep you from walking into the lake. 

[Chuck Wagon]

Palmer has been pumping up Allen the whole process.  He worked with both Darnold and Allen this year extensively.  Teams are a lot higher on Allen than fans.

[Mojo44]

This is pretty much Mayock’s take on Allen which is why he has him so highly rated despite his college stats. 

[HappyDays]

Why do all the Allen supporters talk about completion percentage? They talk about it more than anyone. Do they realize people who don't like Allen have watched a lot of tape on him too?

[PIZ]

....... and just as we start warming up to Josh Allen, someone else will draft him, and we'll end up with Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson.

[Jauronimo]

That Jordan Palmer throws a hell of a spiral.  A lot of people thought he should be the starting QB.  Well, one guy thought he should be our starting QB and that thread was magical.

[jr1]

[Buffalo716]

I have watched and broke down every single  play from Allen’s career at Wyoming 

 

Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage 

 

that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15%

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Why do all the Allen supporters talk about completion percentage? They talk about it more than anyone. Do they realize people who don't like Allen have watched a lot of tape on him too?

I think it's because a lot of folks who bash Allen focus on completion percentage.  

[KDIGGZ]

Palmer is Allen's QB coach. What is he going to say? He sucks? 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I think it's because a lot of folks who bash Allen focus on completion percentage.  

 

I don't think that's true. Every time someone defends Allen as a top choice they say "people who hate him are just stat watchers, they haven't seen the tape." I can assure you we have. It's 2018. His tape is easy to find for anyone who wants to see it. Some people might bring up his completion percentage as a data point but it is not the end all be all of why he doesn't have a lot of fans.

[Beast]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Why do all the Allen supporters talk about completion percentage? They talk about it more than anyone. Do they realize people who don't like Allen have watched a lot of tape on him too?

 

You can watch all the tape in the world but if you don’t know what you’re looking at that doesn’t ammount to squat.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think that's true. Every time someone defends Allen as a top choice they say "people who hate him are just stat watchers, they haven't seen the tape." I can assure you we have. It's 2018. His tape is easy to find for anyone who wants to see it. Some people might bring up his completion percentage as a data point but it is not the end all be all of why he doesn't have a lot of fans.

By using "we" collectively, I think you are giving more credit than is due.  Certainly you don't really mean that all the Allen critics are thoroughly informed . . . in any event, you are welcome to your interpretation.  I believe one can conclude differently regarding Allen's potential without being judged uninformed or foolish.

[boyst]

I prefer the adage that no QB improves their completion percentage in the pros from college 

[sven233]

Everyone knows how I feel about Allen on this board.  I want no part of him.....especially if it requires a trade up.  There are 4 other guys in this draft I want more and I think it would be a failure to come out of this draft with Allen.

 

However, I will say this about Allen and defend him a bit.  I watched all but 1 of his games this year.  We all know he has the physical tools you dream about a QB having.  But one of the reasons a lot of us a terrified of taking him is his accuracy and completion percentage.

 

What Palmer, Mayock, etc. are saying is indeed true.  The offense he played in was a vertical offense that very rarely incorporated routes at less than 10 yards.  Yes, he did miss easy throws, but if you watch the games, you realize a lot of their offense was pushing the ball down the field in chunks.  You didn't see a ton of swing passes, screens, slants, etc.  Most everything was designed to push the ball down the field in chunks.  So yes.....with an offensive scheme designed to do this, it is only natural for the completion percentage to be down a bit.  Coupled with a complete lack of receiving talent, Allen was not put in the best position to succeed.  That said, there is no way his completion percentage should be THAT low playing in that conference.

 

To me, the reason I don't want him is more about other things.  I think he is slow to read the field at times, he very rarely anticipates throws and waits to see guys coming open to throw the ball winch cause him to be late on throws, and he bails out of the pocket way too early far too often.  Add that to the accuracy issues and you have a project QB that I want no part of.  There is such a disparity between how good and bad that Allen could end up being.  If he reaches his MAX potential, he could be Marino.  However, if he doesn't, there is a chance he could be out of the league or relegated to backup status before he ever sees the field.

 

Look, Josh Allen could very well end up being the best QB in the class when it is said and done.  He has the best physical tools in the draft.  But this is about achieving that potential and I firmly believe Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield all have a better chance to succeed.  I could also make the case that Jackson is a guy I would rather take than Allen.

 

I don't want to draft Allen.  I have been pushing all along to do whatever it takes for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.  WHATEVER IT TAKES.  Let some other team take the chance on Allen.  But as a guy that has watched a ton of Allen, not just the highlights, and just not looking at stats, I wanted to defend him a bit because he deserves a little better than what he has been getting.  That said - DARNOLD, ROSEN, OR MAYFIELD.  FINISH THE JOB.

Edited April 25, 2018 by sven233

[dbflaBill]

Palmer and Allen had/have the same agent. Of course he is going to pump him up. 

[NewEraBills]

My thing with Allen and the talent reason (except the offensive line) is straight up nonsense.  Here's the thing, even without top WR talent it's not like Allen was facing top DBs and secondary's in the MWC.  So he should have lit that up one would think.  But he did not.  Things got worse when he played against power 5 schools.  I don't know what Allen will be and I don't know the improvement, what I do know is this reasoning that he had bad WRs is terrible reasoning.  Maybe they were bad, but the DB's in the MWC are not going to be playing in the NFL either so why when you look on film he's not doing better against these guys?

[Blokestradamus]

There's a fine line between a reason and an excuse. I put this slightly closer to excuse. The main thing that stopped Allen completing passes in that offense was himself.

 

We went through something similar with Connor Cook a couple of years back. 57.5% completion rate in college and, to my charting, the most intermediate throws (11-20 yards) of anyone in his class. Sure, it's always nice when the offense doesn't inflate numbers but the NFL is predicated on those intermediate throws. If you didn't make them in college, why do I have any faith that he'll make them at the highest level?

Edited April 25, 2018 by Blokestradamus

[BillsSbSoon]

There is some truth to this. This narrative being pushed that baker is the most accurate qb in the class is bogus. He is not more accurate than rosen. Baker throws a good ball yeah, but his % was def inflated by a lot of screens and quick flares. From what ive watched of allen thus far i dont think hes as innacurate as hes being made out to be 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

You can watch all the tape in the world but if you don’t know what you’re looking at that doesn’t ammount to squat.

 

 

 

It isn't hard to educate yourself these days. There is a very active scouting community online. Read this whole thread and watch the clips:

 

 

Crist is detailed and specific on the positives and negatives on Allen's tape. And he comes away from it with the same conclusion many of us have. Allen is a raw physical talent with horrible touch, ball placement, and footwork. He also makes poor decisions and has trouble reading the field. His physical talent alone might make him worth a late day 2 pick but he has no business in the top 5, or the 1st round for that matter.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Extra risk with Allen because he did  not play against good opponents.    By the way, does anybody else wonder why after he played 2 years at a community college ONLY TWO 4 YEAR COLLEGES EVEN ANSWERED HIS INQUIRERS FOR A SCHOLARSHIP???   

639 schools turned him down.  One offered a scholarship.  One lost interest when he went on a visit to the other school.

 

Are they all so much dumber than the posters here?

[Radar]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

It isn't hard to educate yourself these days. There is a very active scouting community online. Read this whole thread and watch the clips:

 

 

Crist is detailed and specific on the positives and negatives on Allen's tape. And he comes away from it with the same conclusion many of us have. Allen is a raw physical talent with horrible touch, ball placement, and footwork. He also makes poor decisions and has trouble reading the field. His physical talent alone might make him worth a late day 2 pick but he has no business in the top 5, or the 1st round for that matter.

Of course the anti Allen clan will jump on this as gospel. The others have their own gospel that Allen should be #1. After all the bull has been thrown around we'll know tomorrow night won't we? Oh, that's right. I forgot that's when the bull becomes that's a terrible pick and we got a great pick there. Lucky he was there. Why didn't we trade up fire Beane!!!! Boy our GM is a genius!!!! Love it.

 

 

[nbbillsfan]

While what Palmer says has truth, there are other guys in NFL draft history who had these factors affecting there completion percentage...and yet the good ones still completed passes at a higher clip.

[Buffalo716]

19 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

I prefer the adage that no QB improves their completion percentage in the pros from college 

 

Drew Brees did but I’m not sure about many others 

[ddaryl]

save this article because if we do end up with Allen its the only hope we can hang our hats on till he sees the field

[PaattMaann]

41 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on.  Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting. He said keep in mind that completion percentage is very different between certain players when you consider the offenses they played in. For example Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year while Josh Allen's film showed his receivers had very little separation. 

He also said you should add 6 to 10 points on to the completion percentage of a quarterback who runs the type of offense that Allen did when compared to an offense like Mayfield's. 

His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't.  These are easy throws that inflate stats. 

    

He went on to say that despite Josh Allen playing in junior college three years ago, the guy is mature and has a magnetic personality, great teammate and he was very high on him being successful in the NFL.   He compared his personality to Fitzy. 

If we do end up taking the kid, I suggest you go play the clip of the interview on the GR website, it will keep you from walking into the lake. 

 

There is plenty of tape out there of Josh Allen literally missing screen passes

[Roundybout]

 

 

They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh....

[Heitz]

41 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

This is pretty much Mayock’s take on Allen which is why he has him so highly rated despite his college stats. 

 

Phil Simms and Jim Miller too (per yesterday's Sirius interview) - Allen is the top guy for both of them.  Simms said that ALL he watches is QB's too, fwiw...

[CNY315]

44 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't.  These are easy throws that inflate stats

 

[Lurker]

39 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year

 

This is why I've never gotten comfortable with this kid.   IMO, the Big 12 spread offenses are just not good preparation for the NFL.   It seem's like every receiver is always open, like they're playing against air.   Fast break football is entertaining but the NFL is another animal.

 

That said, the Big Sky is not good breeding ground for the NFL either.   The PAC 12, on the other hand, is the proving ground for NFL QBs...

[K-9]

38 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I have watched and broke down every single  play from Allen’s career at Wyoming 

 

Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage 

 

that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15%

Just curious, what were the percentages for the other top 3 QBs?

[whatdrought]

I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. 

 

 

The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. 

 

(those interceptions were both rough though.) 

[ddaryl]

12 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

 

 

They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh....

 

they are until you become a Buffalonian. Then they are just Wings, but for the rest of the world they need to add the Buffalo, its out biggest claim to fame in the modern age

3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. 

 

 

The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. 

 

(those interceptions were both rough though.) 

 

that is the rub he needs time to learn the game becuase he had little time ot go through all the reads etc..  so he would be best going to the Giants behind Eli IMO. He needs a year or 2 Buffalo does not have that luxury IMO

Edited April 25, 2018 by ddaryl

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

He needs a year or 2 Buffalo does not have that luxury IMO

Why can't he sit behind McCarron for a year?  We're not going to the Super Bowl next year.

[ddaryl]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Why can't he sit behind McCarron for a year?  We're not going to the Super Bowl next year.

 

I dont think Buffalo wants a project QB

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

I dont think Buffalo wants a project QB

Then you only want Rosen or Mayfield.  Everyone else needs time to develop.  I think that's very short-sighted.

[DCOrange]

I like Allen personally, but regarding the idea that you need to add 6-10% to Allen's completion percentage due to how few screens, etc. he threw, if you take Allen's splits and normalize it based on the target distribution that Josh Rosen had (who threw it short more often than anyone else), it only bumps Allen's completion percentage up to 58.3%.

 

Normalizing everyone's numbers based on Rosen's pass distribution, you get (this is based on their career numbers rather than just this past year):

Baker: 70.5%

Darnold: 65.9%

Rosen: 60.9%

Lamar: 58.7%

Allen: 58.3%

 

Unrelated, I looked at the splits between passers when kept clean versus when pressured and then normalized their 2017 numbers as if they were pressured as little as Rudolph was (who was protected better than any of the other top 6 QBs) and doing so gave me these numbers:

Baker: 71.1%

Rudolph: 65.1%

Darnold: 64.2%

Rosen: 63.5%

Lamar: 60.8%

Allen: 60.6%

[ddaryl]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Then you only want Rosen or Mayfield.  Everyone else needs time to develop.  I think that's very short-sighted.

 

Yeah different levels of development I view Allen as a 2 year project and Darnold Mayfield Rosen ready in 1 year or less

 

Rudolph may be ready early, Jackson will need a year or 2

[Lurker]

13 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. 

 

 

The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. 

 

(those interceptions were both rough though.) 

 

Man, that was painful to watch.    I just don't see the "arm talent" I keep hearing about. 

 

I don't see a live arm, just a strong one on a so-so athlete...

[DCOrange]

23 minutes ago, CNY315 said:

 

 

I've seen this posted a few times, but it's very strange because Barnwell posted an article roughly a week ago that laid out all the numbers and found that while Allen did indeed attempt 30.7% of his passes under 5 yards, that was significantly lower than Darnold, Baker, or Rosen, who were all between 38-40%.