The Bills rebuild with a trade-down after an early run on QB

[JohnC]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ll play along but in a slightly different way. Keep 12, trade 22 and your 4th for a 2nd this year and 1st next year. Trade a 2nd and 2019 4th for Foles. The next month could look something like this:

 

- Foles

- Roquan Smith 

- Billy Price

- Christian Kirk

- Rashad Penny

- Darius Leonard

- Brian O’Neill

- Avonte Maddox 

- 2019 1st

 

I am not one that believes Foles is the answer but thought this would be a fun exercise. 

 

If Foles is not the answer then why give up a high pick for him? Foles did have a terrific playoff run. But that short term high level of play doesn't represent his usual level of play. So the question becomes is Foles much better than McCarron? I would say not appreciably so. If the Bills can't work a deal to get one of the top tier qbs then it should stay where it is at and use their current picks to add to the roster. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Lets make a bet.  I will bet you $50 that they don’t trade down.  That’s how confident I feel that they aren’t moving down.  Are we on?  

I don't know what they will do. It depends upon too many unknow outside of anybody's control or knowledge.  I think each possibility (trade up a few, stay pat, trade down a few) are all about equally possible.   Its a 1 in 3 chance, not an even chance.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

In what universe does Mayfield slip down to #12?

 

Also, have you noticed that drafting middle to low round QBs HAS FAILED MISERABLY for us over the last 2 decades?!?!!

 

NO. NO MORE. You TRADE UP and get the guy. ENOUGH of this middling BS.

[RochesterRob]

39 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

We were in cap hell and needed to rebuild the roster. We don't have the nucleus to trade away all of our draft picks.

  Further, with the recent moves Spotrac has us at just under 63M for the cap versus being at nearly 100M just a few weeks ago.  That will get eaten up by signing a fair number of players who will just below top shelf in terms of quality.  Who knows?  Maybe a valuable vet QB will be available via trade and we will need nearly half of that for reworking that QB's contract.  The top 4 of the draft are far from the only options.

[Skins Malone]

26 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

I agree with this. Besides, the OP is wrong in asserting that Taylor helped out the offense of line with his scrambling. Just the opposite is true. The offense of line actually played pretty fair during 2017. The problem was Taylor’s tendency to panic under pressure and run into a sack.Again, embedded in the initial post is the ridiculous lingering narrative that Taylor was anything but horrible.

Yeah sometimes i dont think people realize how bad TT played.  Im not knocking the guy but his numbers were embarrassing.  

[Paulmac]

The entire world knows that we're angling to move up in this draft and get a coveted franchise QB.. IMHO it's a foregone conclusion that the only scenario that exists is the Bills utilize what we have in picks to move up to a Top 6 pick..take the 4 QBs..Rosen,Darnold,Allen and Mayfield..throw Barkley and Chubb in the mix for the first few picks..We get 1 of these coveted  QBs w a Top 6 pick...

I just don't see us moving back in this draft given the media leaks and news that the Bills are desperate to get a franchise type of QB..unless this is a well designed bluster and misinformation campaign as to the Bills true intentions..if that is the case we need to hand out Oscars for best supporting actor!

In any event,it's exciting to speculate and know that the Bills moves will make this draft exciting and make watching it a must see event

[Doc]

Not rebuild: retool. 

[Skins Malone]

15 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Agreed, if the top 4 are off the board before the Bills are able to do anything (for whatever reason), that will mean that some good position players drop, and I'd prefer they stay put, grab the best LB or DT (yes, yes, I get it, they are not QBs and we need a QB, but in this scenario, we've accepted that we didn't get one), and gauge whether Lamar Jackson will drop (or even do their best to move up from 22 to 13 or 14, which might not cost much), then grab a WR and RB in the 2nd, or if a CB is dropping (if there's anyplace I truly trust the process with McBeane, it's defensive backs). 

Exactly.  You have to do the best with the hand your dealt.  I understand the frustration people feel about not taking a QB and i think the front office is doing what they can to get one.  But you can only do what you can do.

[Batman1876]

So we are down by 6, 2:30 to go, on the opponents 40 with 4th and 1. Waiting till next year for a QB is like punting. You give up your chance to win now hoping you’ll get a chance later. 

[Luxy312]

15 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I don't know what they will do. It depends upon too many unknow outside of anybody's control or knowledge.  I think each possibility (trade up a few, stay pat, trade down a few) are all about equally possible.   Its a 1 in 3 chance, not an even chance.

 

So by that assumption, you should be willing to take odds.  $50 bet gets you $150 if they trade down.  You would be giving away money.

[Saratoga Leo]

Many people want to trade down to get one of the four coveted QBs. Coveted by who? Is it possible or even likely the Bills "covet" less than all four QBs? 

• Allen has many issues. Some scouts say he should not even be a first round pick.
• Rosen may be a medical risk
• Mayfield's personality may not mesh

My point is, the trade up many on this board are jumping to do may not be something the Bills are willing to do if the one to four QBs they covet are off the board. This isn't a pick the last of the four QBs because we covet them all as a value at the top of the first round. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  .....

 

 

 

 

You're mistaken right from your first sentence. People don't think that one of the new QBs can perform miracles. And we're aware that trading away all those picks will hurt the team's roster, handicapping us for several years. 

 

But you've spent an awful lot of work here missing the point. By a wide margin.

 

We're aware that we're going to be pretty bad next year after they trade up. (And the news makes it very obvious that if there's any way to do that, Beane will. He's desperately trying to do that.) The point is that Beane's and McDermott's focus is not on next year. It's on the long term ability to put together a team that can consistently be in position to compete for championships. 

 

And a franchise QB will put us in that position. Not next year. Hell, the chances are very good that whatever high-level guy we pick after the tradeup is going to sit next year and learn from McCarron. Whereas filling a bunch of holes but still having no franchise QB will very much NOT put us in that position.

 

There's still one situation where trade-backs become very possible. If we can't get into the top five or six and the top four QBs are gone ... and if they don't like anyone else as much as some on these boards do ... then yeah, we might well see them trading back. Trading this year's #22 for a 1st next year and some change. This year's #56 for a 2nd next year and some change. And so on.

 

Because if they don't get someone this year that they really like at QB, expect them to try to put themselves in the same situation next year putting together a big ole cache of picks so that we can try to trade up next year. 

 

Yeah, those picks could fill some holes. That won't begin to do for the long term prospects of this team what getting a franchise QB here would.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

30 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I don't know what they will do. It depends upon too many unknow outside of anybody's control or knowledge.  I think each possibility (trade up a few, stay pat, trade down a few) are all about equally possible.   Its a 1 in 3 chance, not an even chance.

 

 

"Brandon is trying like hell to get up and get a quarterback," the NFL GM told La Canfora. 'I'm convinced he'll trade up twice more if he has to. It reminds me of (Eagles general manager) Howie (Roseman) a few years ago (when he was moving up to land Carson Wentz).'"

 

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/04/buffalo_bills_gm_brandon_beane_reportedly_trying_like_hell_to_trade_up_for_qb.html

 

 

It's probably a good deal higher than even. Though maybe the Giants and Browns simply don't want to make the trades.

 

If they weren't trading up, they'd have traded Glenn not for a move up but for another draft pick. 

 

Get used to it. This is likely to happen. Practically every draft-related move they've made since Beane got here has been pointed at this.

 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

 

 

 

I'm amused by anyone who watches the NFL and still doesn't understand the importance of a Quarterback.

 

 

And by the way, nobody believes the 2018 Draft has a "can't-miss" QB prospect. 

 

The argument being made (in the trade-up crowd) is that the higher ranked prospects like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield have a much better chance of success than guys farther down the ladder like Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk or Kyle Lauletta.  And since we have the extra draft capitol to make a move... and since we have a monstrous need a QB... and because the 2019 QB Class is considered weak -- THIS would be a fantastic year to go up and grab a top QB prospect.

 

Honestly, it's not a hard concept to grasp.  For instance, if you believe we need a Linebacker - would you be more comfortable filling the spot with one of the top prospects like Roquan Smith or Marcus Davenport?  Or would you like to fill our gaping LB need with somebody slated to go in the 4th-5th Round?  Or maybe a bunch of Undrafted Free Agents?

 

Obviously there are TONS of examples of Linebackers taken late in the draft who have found tremendous success in the NFL.  But if we wait until Day 3 to draft a LB, many of you will be throwing a fit.  Why?  Because no matter how much you fuss about the draft being a "crap shoot" - somewhere inside you know that Top 10/1st Round Prospects have a much higher rate of success.  The same is true with Quarterbacks.

 

 

[What a Tuel]

34 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Nope. The Pats are evil magic.  They traded him off for a higher draft pick and have a replacement cast-off from another team who will step right in and be another Hogan  /  Edelman.   Guy who were given up on by other teams and who are now starters for a top-notch team.   Look at the Pat's drafts.  Last year: DE, DE, OT, OT. .......    2016  CB,  OL,  QB, NT...........2015   DT, S, DE/LB, DE..................2014   (DL , 2nd Round – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB,
(OL (RB,  (OT, o (G, (DE,  (DB, WR,   

 

Evil magic is right. Hogan? The guy has put up less than stellar Goodwin like stats with Brady throwing. But sooooo good amiright? 

 

We need to draft a QB, and that is the bottom line. This year we have the capital to do it. Best come to terms with it.

[Captain Hindsight]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

What do you mean by "Conspiracy theories"?   Have you mixed up your post with some political blog?    The Pats are famous for trading away guys who have become sort of stars under their system.  When they are a bit over the hill but still have a great reputation, the Pats sell them off at a premium and wind up with high draft picks for a soon-to-be-fading overpaid star.   Last year's trades of the Bills is along the same line. It is called smart.

You talked about reconnaissance being seen as something different than what is actually there

 

The Bills are trading up for a QB. It is the worst  kept secret in the NFL. Dont over think it

[baskingridgebillsfan]

the offensive line was hindered by Taylor not helped.  

[FearLess Price]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If you get to a situation where the Browns go QB at #1, the Giants do at #2, the Jets do at #3.... the Browns refuse to trade out of #4 and then Broncos go QB at #5 I would happily trade back from #12.  I just don't think there is any chance that the scenario plays out.  

 

That is a nightmare scenario. 

 

It would be so billsy its possible.

 

This scares me.

 

We passed on Watskn and Mahomes for a QB this year. Hope obd doesnt get wet feet.

12 minutes ago, baskingridgebillsfan said:

the offensive line was hindered by Taylor not helped.  

 

They must have been hindered by pick5petermen too right?

 

58 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I don't know what they will do. It depends upon too many unknow outside of anybody's control or knowledge.  I think each possibility (trade up a few, stay pat, trade down a few) are all about equally possible.   Its a 1 in 3 chance, not an even chance.

 

Disagrree with one pointnin ur op.

 

If we draft a top rookie qb we can just let AJ start and take the hits until we shore up our offensive line.

 

sometimes you have to leave the ferrari in the garage.

 

Go out n cop the ferrari but, until the driving conditijns conditions are good, leave that sht in the garage.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Wsam4031 said:

Eagles were already offered a 2nd and said they wouldn't take less than a first. They wanted 2 first but I think that's insane and they go down to 1 if anyone gave them one which nobody will do because Foles isn't that good

You offer them the 2nd and the 4th next year. They either take it or they don’t. They can ask for whatever they want but will get whatever is offered to them. They can choose to take it or hold onto Foles. My guess is that they try to hold on and hope for a preseason injury to a QB of a contender.

[McD]

1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

In what universe does Mayfield slip down to #12?

 

Also, have you noticed that drafting middle to low round QBs HAS FAILED MISERABLY for us over the last 2 decades?!?!!

 

NO. NO MORE. You TRADE UP and get the guy. ENOUGH of this middling BS.

Who is THE guy?  Is there one, or are we just going to be fixated at a position because we just HAVE to take one?  If there's a GUARANTEE that any one of those QB's are the savior, a generational type player, then cool... I'm in.  But, I've not read ANYTHING that says this QB class is that talented.  Starters yes... a few Pro Bowls... perhaps.  But worthy of 3 #1's+?  I'm not sold. 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, McD said:

Who is THE guy?  Is there one, or are we just going to be fixated at a position because we just HAVE to take one?  If there's a GUARANTEE that any one of those QB's are the savior, a generational type player, then cool... I'm in.  But, I've not read ANYTHING that says this QB class is that talented.  Starters yes... a few Pro Bowls... perhaps.  But worthy of 3 #1's+?  I'm not sold. 

Fine, you can wait another 25 years and hope when the perfect qb appears you have the first overall pick, because folks don't trade that player away.  Rare to have a draft with multiple potential franchise qbs and we set ourselves up for it by acquiring draft capital.

[KOKBILLS]

I'm open to a conversation about trading down from #22 IF the Bills don't use it to move up for a QB...

 

#12 is off limits though...That's QB, QB, QB, or used to move up to get a QB...

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Mojo44 said:

I agree with this. Besides, the OP is wrong in asserting that Taylor helped out the offense of line with his scrambling. Just the opposite is true. The offense of line actually played pretty fair during 2017. The problem was Taylor’s tendency to panic under pressure and run into a sack.Again, embedded in the initial post is the ridiculous lingering narrative that Taylor was anything but horrible.

Let's  look at the stats.  McCoy had 287 attempts and Taylor had 84.    So of those two,  Taylor had 22% of the running plays.    For yardage Taylor had 27% of the running yardage.....................Does that sound like a good recipe for you?

 

 

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
25	LeSean McCoy*	29	RB	16	16	287	1138	6	48	4.0	71.1	17.9	77	59	448	7.6	2	39	3.7	28.0	76.6%	1586	8	3
5	Tyrod Taylor	28	QB	15	14	84	427	4	32	5.1	28.5	5.6										427	4	4

Edited April 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[McD]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Fine, you can wait another 25 years and hope when the perfect qb appears you have the first overall pick, because folks don't trade that player away.  Rare to have a draft with multiple potential franchise qbs and we set ourselves up for it by acquiring draft capital.

25 years, lol... ok.  Hell, you all are SO dead set on us sucking next year with AJ that we're probably gonna be in prime position to draft in the top 10 next year.  At least if we did that we might actually have an OL and WR's for him because we got them all this year. 

[What a Tuel]

1 minute ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Let's  look at the stats.  McCoy had 287 attempts and Taylor had 84.    So of those two,  Taylor had 22% of the running plays.    For yardage Taylor had 25% of the running yardage.....................Does that sound like a good recipe for you?

 

 

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
25	LeSean McCoy*	29	RB	16	16	287	1138	6	48	4.0	71.1	17.9	77	59	448	7.6	2	39	3.7	28.0	76.6%	1586	8	3
5	Tyrod Taylor	28	QB	15	14	84	427	4	32	5.1	28.5	5.6										427	4	4

 

Tyrod ran because he would not throw the ball. He often had tons of time.

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB

 

I am amused by all the people in the "don't trade up" crowd needing to start a thread to tell us it will cost a lot.

 

We know.

[ChanOverChin]

This year is the Bills' BEST chance to draft a true franchise QB, something they haven't had for 17+ years.

 

The bottom line is you win in the NFL with a franchise QB.

 

There have been a few exceptions, but very few indeed.

 

The Bills have the draft ammo this year and if the timing and the deal is right it would be the best move for the Bills to trade up to take the likes of Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield.

 

Get the franchise QB this year.

 

The Bills are expected to have $100M+ in cap space next year.  They can fill in their holes at LB, DL, WR at that point.  But you can bet your sweet patootie that they're not going to be able to sign a vet franchise QB.

 

[CamboBill]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick.

 

down to     gets us this overall pick

==============================

#14............100th player  (4th round)

#16.............78th player  (3rd round)

#18............60th player    (2nd round)

#20............55th player

#22.............48th player

#24.............44th player

#26.............40th player

#28.............36th player

#30.............32nd player

#32...............30.5th player (1st round)

.

.

From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea).

30.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30

31.

Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10

32.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17

33.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30

34.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30

35.

Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10

36.

James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9

37.

Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24

38.

Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19

39.

Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20

40.

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10

41.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9

42.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0

43.

Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30

44.

JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11

45.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30

46.

Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14

47.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17

48.

Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30

49.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30

50.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30

51.

R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9

52.

Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9

53.

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9

54.

Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9

55.

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest.

 http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC

 

A good center,  a good linebacker, a good WR or a  good RB.  You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for  your effort.     If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

 

 

 

 

I agree that QBs on this board are being extremely overhyped and I hope we don't get silly like in trading up with Giants.  That said, given that we gave up Cody Gn to move up from 12, I don't see us trading back town.  either we will draft a QB that we like assuming he falls to us ... or we get BPA. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If you get to a situation where the Browns go QB at #1, the Giants do at #2, the Jets do at #3.... the Browns refuse to trade out of #4 and then Broncos go QB at #5 I would happily trade back from #12.  I just don't think there is any chance that the scenario plays out.  

Actually I think this scenario might play out. If the top 3 picks are Darnold, Rosen & Allen, all of a sudden the Broncos might panic and take Mayfield? You do not trade up for Lamar, so that leaves Rudolph at 12 or later. I honestly feel if we don't get a fair deal for #2, we're staying put or even might trade down a little. It's up to Gettleman.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, McD said:

25 years, lol... ok.  Hell, you all are SO dead set on us sucking next year with AJ that we're probably gonna be in prime position to draft in the top 10 next year.  At least if we did that we might actually have an OL and WR's for him because we got them all this year. 

Alright, let me rephrase.  The last draft folks talk about as being rich with multiple qbs (and of course only some worked out) was 1983.  That's 35 years ago.  It is rare to have a draft with 4 or more qbs that might be considered for the first round.  A normal draft has 1 or 2 or actually zero.  We have the draft capital this year, not next year, etc.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

You're mistaken right from your first sentence. People don't think that one of the new QBs can perform miracles. And we're aware that trading away all those picks will hurt the team's roster, handicapping us for several years. 

 

But you've spent an awful lot of work here missing the point. By a wide margin.

 

We're aware that we're going to be pretty bad next year after they trade up. (And the news makes it very obvious that if there's any way to do that, Beane will. He's desperately trying to do that.) The point is that Beane's and McDermott's focus is not on next year. It's on the long term ability to put together a team that can consistently be in position to compete for championships. 

 

And a franchise QB will put us in that position. Not next year. Hell, the chances are very good that whatever high-level guy we pick after the tradeup is going to sit next year and learn from McCarron. Whereas filling a bunch of holes but still having no franchise QB will very much NOT put us in that position.

 

There's still one situation where trade-backs become very possible. If we can't get into the top five or six and the top four QBs are gone ... and if they don't like anyone else as much as some on these boards do ... then yeah, we might well see them trading back. Trading this year's #22 for a 1st next year and some change. This year's #56 for a 2nd next year and some change. And so on.

 

Because if they don't get someone this year that they really like at QB, expect them to try to put themselves in the same situation next year putting together a big ole cache of picks so that we can try to trade up next year. 

 

Yeah, those picks could fill some holes. That won't begin to do for the long term prospects of this team what getting a franchise QB here would.

I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB.  If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round.  That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate.   We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster.  Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster.  Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up.  It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive.  (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best).      Sorry, but is that a smart place to be?

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

"Brandon is trying like hell to get up and get a quarterback," the NFL GM told La Canfora. 'I'm convinced he'll trade up twice more if he has to. It reminds me of (Eagles general manager) Howie (Roseman) a few years ago (when he was moving up to land Carson Wentz).'"

 

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/04/buffalo_bills_gm_brandon_beane_reportedly_trying_like_hell_to_trade_up_for_qb.html

 

 

It's probably a good deal higher than even. Though maybe the Giants and Browns simply don't want to make the trades.

 

If they weren't trading up, they'd have traded Glenn not for a move up but for another draft pick. 

 

Get used to it. This is likely to happen. Practically every draft-related move they've made since Beane got here has been pointed at this.

 

The why did they trade their top WR?

Edited April 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB.  If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round.  That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate.   We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster.  Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster.  Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up.  It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive.  (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best).      Sorry, but is that a smart place to be?

 

 

Of all the available options ... YES ... the absolute smartest when your goal is to be consistently competitive for a championship.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Actually I think this scenario might play out. If the top 3 picks are Darnold, Rosen & Allen, all of a sudden the Broncos might panic and take Mayfield? You do not trade up for Lamar, so that leaves Rudolph at 12 or later. I honestly feel if we don't get a fair deal for #2, we're staying put or even might trade down a little. It's up to Gettleman.

 

I really don't think it plays out like that.  

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, kdiggz said:

they rebuild the trenches then someone leaves so next year they have to rebuild something else and then it never ends.  there's always going to be holes on a team so i guess we just never get a QB right?  man, there are some really bad posts lately

I've read something like this regularly so this response isn't t Kdiggz but general.

Why is it that only other position players "leave next year" but QBs never do? In the past it's been because the FO has failed to assess roster talent properly - which reflected an organization that culturally would have valued a strong safety over a DT in the top 5, or a CB over a great OT at 12. 

If you cannot trust the FO to make decisions on contracts and roster building and retaining, then moving up or even drafting a QB at 12 is a completely lost cause. OTOH, drafting Roquan Smith doesn't mean losing him in four years. Can Roquan Smith change your team? Well, I'd say that Clay Matthews has been pretty important in Green Bay. Ray Smith changed the world in Baltimore. 

Cheers,

A

[CamboBill]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Alright, let me rephrase.  The last draft folks talk about as being rich with multiple qbs (and of course only some worked out) was 1983.  That's 35 years ago.  It is rare to have a draft with 4 or more qbs that might be considered for the first round.  A normal draft has 1 or 2 or actually zero.  We have the draft capital this year, not next year, etc.  

The difference in this year's draft is that there is no clear cut #1 choice.  you can take the top 5 and pull a name of out of a hat and make an argument for why should be #1.  You do NOT give the farm away in a trade trade up in this scenario.  This is a good QB draft in that it is DEEP ... but it is NOT top heavy.  There are 5 QB prospects that might have big futures and two or three others that might have a shot at being decent starters some day. There is nobody to trade up for ... There is no Wentz or Goff in this draft.   I think we might need to move into the top 8, but there is no need to overpay for #2.  This is fools Gold.

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick.

 

down to     gets us this overall pick

==============================

#14............100th player  (4th round)

#16.............78th player  (3rd round)

#18............60th player    (2nd round)

#20............55th player

#22.............48th player

#24.............44th player

#26.............40th player

#28.............36th player

#30.............32nd player

#32...............30.5th player (1st round)

.

.

From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea).

30.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30

31.

Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10

32.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17

33.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30

34.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30

35.

Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10

36.

James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9

37.

Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24

38.

Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19

39.

Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20

40.

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10

41.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9

42.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0

43.

Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30

44.

JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11

45.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30

46.

Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14

47.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17

48.

Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30

49.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30

50.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30

51.

R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9

52.

Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9

53.

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9

54.

Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9

55.

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest.

 http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC

 

A good center,  a good linebacker, a good WR or a  good RB.  You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for  your effort.     If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

 

 

 

 

 

MBF, you must be a born contrarian.  Can't just go with the flow, can you?

 

It's actually kind of refreshing to see a completely different take on the draft.   Something other than the Holy Quest for the Savior QB.

Edited April 4, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

1) It's fun to imagine filling the roster spots with 10-12 draft picks.

 

But "the process" is very much about having mature, mentally tough players and then integrating in a manageable amount of young players.

 

Can't afford to have multiple guys like Zay Jones out there that you HAVE to play because you gifted them jobs at great cost to the team.  

 

2) The Bills activity in FA seems to indicate that they aren't planning on gifting starting jobs to a big class of rookies.

 

3) Even if they don't trade up beyond #12 they may trade up at other spots to get specific fits like they did in the 2017 draft.

 

4) Additionally that's a ton of players you have to start making contract decisions on simultaneously after year 3.

 

If they fail at getting a QB early and trade back I hope they get future picks so the next GM/HC can get a crack at the 2021 QB class.

Edited April 4, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[What a Tuel]

10 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB.  If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round.  That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate.   We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster.  Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster.  Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up.  It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive.  (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best).      Sorry, but is that a smart place to be?

 

With your logic right now we have 3 firsts, 3 seconds, 3 thirds to fill your 7 (potentially 8 holes) including the most important position QB. What is that an 89% hit rate for starting players? You conveniently leave the hit rate out of it for the other positions.

 

I don't know why you are so vehemently against using 4 of those 9 picks on a QB and 5 on filling out the roster. Thats 3 freaking extra draft picks to land a QB. After 18 years of "filling out the roster" you should know this.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, CamboBill said:

The difference in this year's draft is that there is no clear cut #1 choice.  you can take the top 5 and pull a name of out of a hat and make an argument for why should be #1.  You do NOT give the farm away in a trade trade up in this scenario.  This is a good QB draft in that it is DEEP ... but it is NOT top heavy.  There are 5 QB prospects that might have big futures and two or three others that might have a shot at being decent starters some day. There is nobody to trade up for ... There is no Wentz or Goff in this draft.   I think we might need to move into the top 8, but there is no need to overpay for #2.  This is fools Gold.

You have five grouped together, but OBD might have separation where one or two are strongly preferred.  If they have five grouped roughly in the same area, obviously, one does not need to trade up to 2.

[NewEra]

The only way I’d trade out of 12 is if the top 5 QBs are gone along with Edmunds and Roquan. I don’t think Jackson is making it to 22.  If we don’t draft one of the top 5 QBs, I’d rather not draft one In the first 2 rounds.  If lauletta or Rudolph (puke) fall to rd 3, grab one then.