The Bills rebuild with a trade-down after an early run on QB

[Bray Wyatt]

7 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 what is the depth if a starter goes down?  ZIP.

You dont spend a day two pick on depth

[McBean]

Yeah forget about QB and use the picks else where! Let’s ignore the QB position because it’s not that important anyway. I mean look at how well it’s worked out for us since Jimbo left by drafting CB’s and lineman in the top rounds!

 

Denzel Ward or bust!!!!

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

We need to draft a QB, but we are not trading away our draft board to do it. Too many needs.

 

There is no greater need.  It is the most important position and we have nothing there.  Beane is trying to trade up. There is zero doubt about it.  Whether they accomplish it is another question.... but they want to go up and will give up their 2019 #1 if needs be.  He said it himself last week.  

[Bray Wyatt]

7 minutes ago, napmaster said:

 

Yes, he did.  He got $10M off the books for 2019 and also got 400 points draft capital.  So effectively a mid 2nd rounder value.

 

If he packages just picks to move up, then I would agree with you and he would never move down from that position.  At this point though, a trade down from 12 is not off the table. 

 

So we went up from 21 to 12 yes? thats trading up. We used an asset to move up in the draft. He could have traded Glenn for something else, but he didnt. He wanted to move up.

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

so you thing AJ is good enough to win a super bowl? Which Qb are you drafting if you build up every other position in the earlier rounds?

   Probably not.  A number of average QB's have won superbowls, but it is unlikely. If one of the top 4 (5?) doesn't drop to #12, we may be a year or two away from finding the guy.  One thing I will challenge you with:   Please show how the present roster (those other 21 guys on the field) is going to be able to be carried along by a God-like QB.  We would be playing with backups from  a 8-8 / 9-7 lucky team and free agents that were released from other teams.  That is NOT going to go very far.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

You've become the chairman and CEO of the "avoid a QB" TSW cottage industry.

 

Congratulations on your promotion.

 

[Captain Hindsight]

2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

We were in cap hell and needed to rebuild the roster. We don't have the nucleus to trade away all of our draft picks.

The playoff team last season, whose biggest issue was QB, doesnt have the nucleus to plug in a QB and win?

 

Our best receiver last season was....... Thompson? A guy we picked up of the street in week 4

 

Still have Shady

Still have a decent O-line

Still have a good D line

Still have a great secondary

 

They traded all those guys to get a QB. If they don't think they can get a QB in the draft they wouldnt have traded Tyrod

[Putin]

1 minute ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

   Heh?    Remember that EJ guy they drafted in the first round?  Wasn't he a long snapper or backup punter?  ..... By the way, you want to trade EVERY pick?  Who is going to play linebacker?   (Oh, the new QB is going to go both ways.  Didn't think of that. Sorry.)

Did you watch the SB this year ? or you were busy scouting the LB’s in this years draft ? Isn’t it sad that some teams have better backups ( QB ) then our starters in the past 10 years ?  

[Sky Diver]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is no greater need.  It is the most important position and we have nothing there.  Beane is trying to trade up. There is zero doubt about it.  Whether they accomplish it is another question.... but they want to go up and will give up their 2019 #1 if needs be.  He said it himself last week.  

 

I could potentially see them moving to #6.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Sky Diver said:

 

I could potentially see them moving to #6.

 

#2, #4, #6, #7  are all in play.  #5 might be too..... really can't get a handle on what Denver wants to do.  

[SoCal Deek]

The interesting part of this scenario is that Bills fans probably won’t know if it was a decent move until over a year from now. If I’m reading everyone correctly McCarron is going to be the starter in 2018. So the big question is how they’ll do with a re-fortified set of young players around him. This dream rookie is going to be holding a clipboard.

[BillsVet]

No team has completely rebuilt unless they have a QB who can make plays and win games for them.

 

The fastest way to rebuild a team is to get the QB.

 

Buddy Nix proved that trying to improve everything but the QB does not work, or at the least (with Whaley) it doesn't work very long.

 

Get the QB.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BillsVet said:

No team has completely rebuilt unless they have a QB who can make plays and win games for them.

 

The fastest way to rebuild a team is to get the QB.

 

Buddy Nix proved that trying to improve everything but the QB does not work, or at the least (with Whaley) it doesn't work very long.

 

Get the QB.

 

 

I can't understand how bills fans (of all people) can't understand this simple concept.

 

[Sky Diver]

From 10 - 3 before Rosen, UCLA went to 8 - 5, 4 - 8, and 6 - 7 with Rosen.

 

One guy doesn't make a team.

[BuffaloRush]

47 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick.

 

down to     gets us this overall pick

==============================

#14............100th player  (4th round)

#16.............78th player  (3rd round)

#18............60th player    (2nd round)

#20............55th player

#22.............48th player

#24.............44th player

#26.............40th player

#28.............36th player

#30.............32nd player

#32...............30.5th player (1st round)

.

.

From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea).

30.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30

31.

Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10

32.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17

33.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30

34.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30

35.

Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10

36.

James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9

37.

Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24

38.

Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19

39.

Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20

40.

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10

41.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9

42.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0

43.

Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30

44.

JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11

45.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30

46.

Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14

47.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17

48.

Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30

49.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30

50.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30

51.

R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9

52.

Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9

53.

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9

54.

Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9

55.

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest.

 http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC

 

A good center,  a good linebacker, a good WR or a  good RB.  You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for  your effort.     If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

 

 

 

 

 

If you consider the context of the Bills decisions since the 2017 draft, it’s pretty clear that they didn’t make all those moves only to trade back down in the draft.  While this idea makes sense on paper - there’s a 0% chance of this happening consider they traded up to #12.

[bmur66]

We got two guys to take the beating this year so the fresh rookie QB is ready for next year. Just sayin.

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Conspiracy theories are fun.

 

You use the Pats* as an example of trading away talent to get picks. They also have Tom Brady. Bills have AJ McCarron and Nate "Picked off" Peterman.

 

They are trading up to get a QB. The only question is who and at what pick

What do you mean by "Conspiracy theories"?   Have you mixed up your post with some political blog?    The Pats are famous for trading away guys who have become sort of stars under their system.  When they are a bit over the hill but still have a great reputation, the Pats sell them off at a premium and wind up with high draft picks for a soon-to-be-fading overpaid star.   Last year's trades of the Bills is along the same line. It is called smart.

[Mojo44]

46 minutes ago, Skins Malone said:

I wouldn't trade down for the simple fact that the bills have alot of picks in this draft to begin with.  

 

I am torn about swinging for the fences and trading away said picks...but the bills do need to find an answer at QB.  Its been far to long.  

I agree with this. Besides, the OP is wrong in asserting that Taylor helped out the offense of line with his scrambling. Just the opposite is true. The offense of line actually played pretty fair during 2017. The problem was Taylor’s tendency to panic under pressure and run into a sack.Again, embedded in the initial post is the ridiculous lingering narrative that Taylor was anything but horrible.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

I can't understand how bills fans (of all people) can't understand this simple concept.

 

Joe, I don’t think anyone disagrees. The challenge for all us armchair GMs is figuring out how to move up and get one of the top QBs this year. What, or who, would you be willing to trade?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Joe, I don’t think anyone disagrees. The challenge for all us armchair GMs is figuring out how to move up and get one of the top QBs this year. What, or who, would you be willing to trade?

Everything.

 

I'd trade the whole !@#$ing draft if I had to. It's that important. I'm tired of "run the ball and stop the run we play in cold weather" mindset.

 

Half the league (including New England, Green Bay, Seattle and Schittsburgh) play in cold weather and have excellent passing games.

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by joesixpack

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

You've become the chairman and CEO of the "avoid a QB" TSW cottage industry.

 

Congratulations on your promotion.

 

That is just silly and being a troll.  I am not if favor of trading way up past a few spots to get a QB but would not "avoid a QB" if it got us a very good QB.  So just stop that line of attack.

[Wsam4031]

3 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

   Probably not.  A number of average QB's have won superbowls, but it is unlikely. If one of the top 4 (5?) doesn't drop to #12, we may be a year or two away from finding the guy.  One thing I will challenge you with:   Please show how the present roster (those other 21 guys on the field) is going to be able to be carried along by a God-like QB.  We would be playing with backups from  a 8-8 / 9-7 lucky team and free agents that were released from other teams.  That is NOT going to go very far.

We have pretty much the same roster as last year. D line has been upgraded, pass rush and run stuffing. Lb's we lost Preston. tackle 5 yards downfield, brown. Ok so we are weaker a MLB. Secondary will be the same minus GAines adding Davis. Oline should be the same even losing Wood and replacing with groy. I love Wood but lets face it he was pushed around a lot last year. Wr was bad last year and is bad this year same players. Running game is still stout possibly better this year. We were a playoff team with tyrod. We probably would have won the Jacks game with a competent qb back there. So lets say on the high end we trade our whole draft to get into the top 4. every draft pick to take one of those top 4 qbs we are still in better shape than we were last year with Taylor with any of those 4 guys. We do have a lot of holes that need upgrades I agree but if we don't fill this qb this year we are in trouble unless aj is a diamond in the rough.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

That is just silly and being a troll.  I am not if favor of trading way up past a few spots to get a QB but would not "avoid a QB" if it got us a very good QB.  So just stop that line of attack.

 

Then you're just willfully ignoring the fact that 4 QB will be gone likely in the top 10, and I'll bet upwards of 6 in the first round.

 

So who do you like? Falk?

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

Everything.

 

I'd trade the whole !@#$ing draft if I had to. It's that important. I'm tired of "run the ball and stop the run we play in cold weather" mindset.

 

Half the league (including New England, Green Bay and Seattle) play in cold weather and have excellent passing games.

 

Very good. At least you’re on record. Here’s a thought...would you trade #12 and Shady for the chance to move up? Remember, the trade doesn’t have to be all draft picks.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Very good. At least you’re on record. Here’s a thought...would you trade #12 and Shady for the chance to move up? Remember, the trade doesn’t have to be all draft picks.

 

Absolutely.

 

100%, where do I sign up?

 

[Wsam4031]

11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The interesting part of this scenario is that Bills fans probably won’t know if it was a decent move until over a year from now. If I’m reading everyone correctly McCarron is going to be the starter in 2018. So the big question is how they’ll do with a re-fortified set of young players around him. This dream rookie is going to be holding a clipboard.

If the bills get one of the top 4 qbs in this draft Aj will not be the starter all year unless he shows something nobody has ever seen out of him before and he looks amazing.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If you get to a situation where the Browns go QB at #1, the Giants do at #2, the Jets do at #3.... the Browns refuse to trade out of #4 and then Broncos go QB at #5 I would happily trade back from #12.  I just don't think there is any chance that the scenario plays out.  

 

I don't think the broncos would go QB at 5.  The 4th best QB or a top dog pass rusher?  Or even trading down to try and address both pass rush and pass protection.

[maryland-bills-fan]

6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

From 10 - 3 before Rosen, UCLA went to 8 - 5, 4 - 8, and 6 - 7 with Rosen.

 

One guy doesn't make a team.

Oh yes he does.  Who needs stinking offensive linemen.  Star QB wetdream isn't bothered by blitzers because he throws to a 6th round WR for a 60 yard gain every time he touches the ball.   The other teams running backs don't run past the backup linebackers on the field because they are scared of the star QB and have given up.  Yep, all you need is a QB. .... He does everything and sells beer during TV commercial breaks.   (sic)

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

Absolutely.

 

100%, where do I sign up?

 

Thanks....I’ve been wondering about that sort of thing myself. The Patriots just traded a top WR to move up.

[NewEraBills]

14 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The interesting part of this scenario is that Bills fans probably won’t know if it was a decent move until over a year from now. If I’m reading everyone correctly McCarron is going to be the starter in 2018. So the big question is how they’ll do with a re-fortified set of young players around him. This dream rookie is going to be holding a clipboard.

 

He's only the starter if you don't land Rosen or Mayfield IMO.  If you land one of those two, it will be a very tight competition.

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

If you consider the context of the Bills decisions since the 2017 draft, it’s pretty clear that they didn’t make all those moves only to trade back down in the draft.  While this idea makes sense on paper - there’s a 0% chance of this happening consider they traded up to #12.

They dumped an over the hill redundant offensive tackle and got a better draft pick.  They could do a lot of things with that improvement. Trading further up in the 1st round is just one of them.

[Wsam4031]

1 minute ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Oh yes he does.  Who needs stinking offensive linemen.  Star QB wetdream isn't bothered by blitzers because he throws to a 6th round WR for a 60 yard gain every time he touches the ball.   The other teams running backs don't run past the backup linebackers on the field because they are scared of the star QB and have given up.  Yep, all you need is a QB. .... He does everything and sells beer during TV commercial breaks.   (sic)

on the flip side you could have a top flight offensive line who gives you all day to throw but with 10 seconds in the pocket to find the opewn receiver tyrod has checked down for a 2 yard gain

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

If the bills get one of the top 4 qbs in this draft Aj will not be the starter all year unless he shows something nobody has ever seen out of him before and he looks amazing.  

If the Bills are hovering around they’re typical one game above .500 and are still in the hunt will they sit AJ down?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Oh yes he does.  Who needs stinking offensive linemen.  Star QB wetdream isn't bothered by blitzers because he throws to a 6th round WR for a 60 yard gain every time he touches the ball.   The other teams running backs don't run past the backup linebackers on the field because they are scared of the star QB and have given up.  Yep, all you need is a QB. .... He does everything and sells beer during TV commercial breaks.   (sic)

 

You're acting as if we have no offensive linemen. There was a post here recently that showed that the Bills had one of the more effective OL in the NFL. Sorry man, but your opinion is wrong.

 

[Wsam4031]

1 minute ago, Wsam4031 said:

on the flip side you could have a top flight offensive line who gives you all day to throw but with 10 seconds in the pocket to find the opewn receiver tyrod has checked down for a 2 yard gain

and missed a wide open KB standing with his hands up in the end zoone

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

They dumped an over the hill redundant offensive tackle and got a better draft pick.  They could do a lot of things with that improvement. Trading further up in the 1st round is just one of them.

 

Lets make a bet.  I will bet you $50 that they don’t trade down.  That’s how confident I feel that they aren’t moving down.  Are we on?  

[Wsam4031]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

If the Bills are hovering around they’re typical one game above .500 and are still in the hunt will they sit AJ down?

if they trade into the top 6 and grab one of the top 4 qbs.. Yes hands down

[thurst44]

48 minutes ago, Skins Malone said:

I wouldn't trade down for the simple fact that the bills have alot of picks in this draft to begin with.  

 

I am torn about swinging for the fences and trading away said picks...but the bills do need to find an answer at QB.  Its been far to long.  

Agreed, if the top 4 are off the board before the Bills are able to do anything (for whatever reason), that will mean that some good position players drop, and I'd prefer they stay put, grab the best LB or DT (yes, yes, I get it, they are not QBs and we need a QB, but in this scenario, we've accepted that we didn't get one), and gauge whether Lamar Jackson will drop (or even do their best to move up from 22 to 13 or 14, which might not cost much), then grab a WR and RB in the 2nd, or if a CB is dropping (if there's anyplace I truly trust the process with McBeane, it's defensive backs). 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

if they trade into the top 6 and grab one of the top 4 qbs.. Yes hands down

Well to answer my own question, I guess it’ll all depend on how AJ has looked and who everyone thinks will have been most responsible for the five or so losses at that point.

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks....I’ve been wondering about that sort of thing myself. The Patriots just traded a top WR to move up.

Nope. The Pats are evil magic.  They traded him off for a higher draft pick and have a replacement cast-off from another team who will step right in and be another Hogan  /  Edelman.   Guy who were given up on by other teams and who are now starters for a top-notch team.   Look at the Pat's drafts.  Last year: DE, DE, OT, OT. .......    2016  CB,  OL,  QB, NT...........2015   DT, S, DE/LB, DE..................2014   (DL , 2nd Round – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB,
(OL (RB,  (OT, o (G, (DE,  (DB, WR,