The Bills rebuild with a trade-down after an early run on QB

[maryland-bills-fan]

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick.

 

down to     gets us this overall pick

==============================

#14............100th player  (4th round)

#16.............78th player  (3rd round)

#18............60th player    (2nd round)

#20............55th player

#22.............48th player

#24.............44th player

#26.............40th player

#28.............36th player

#30.............32nd player

#32...............30.5th player (1st round)

.

.

From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea).

30.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30

31.

Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10

32.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17

33.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30

34.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30

35.

Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10

36.

James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9

37.

Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24

38.

Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19

39.

Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20

40.

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10

41.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9

42.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0

43.

Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30

44.

JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11

45.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30

46.

Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14

47.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17

48.

Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30

49.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30

50.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30

51.

R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9

52.

Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9

53.

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9

54.

Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9

55.

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest.

 http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC

 

A good center,  a good linebacker, a good WR or a  good RB.  You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for  your effort.     If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[GunnerBill]

If you get to a situation where the Browns go QB at #1, the Giants do at #2, the Jets do at #3.... the Browns refuse to trade out of #4 and then Broncos go QB at #5 I would happily trade back from #12.  I just don't think there is any chance that the scenario plays out.  

[Skins Malone]

I wouldn't trade down for the simple fact that the bills have alot of picks in this draft to begin with.  

 

I am torn about swinging for the fences and trading away said picks...but the bills do need to find an answer at QB.  Its been far to long.  

[KDIGGZ]

Yeah not like QB is important. Just get a guy later in the draft. Who cares right?

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If you get to a situation where the Browns go QB at #1, the Giants do at #2, the Jets do at #3.... the Browns refuse to trade out of #4 and then Broncos go QB at #5 I would happily trade back from #12.  I just don't think there is any chance that the scenario plays out.  

Even in that scenario I want to make sure Edmunds or Smith isn't available at 12 before moving.

[Magox]

It all depends on how things unfold, if they think they can get certain players at lower draft slots then sure.  But we do have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds and if we cannot trade up to get one of the elite 4, then drafting 6 different positions via the draft certainly does fill a lot of holes, at least on paper it does.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

I’ll play along but in a slightly different way. Keep 12, trade 22 and your 4th for a 2nd this year and 1st next year. Trade a 2nd and 2019 4th for Foles. The next month could look something like this:

 

- Foles

- Roquan Smith 

- Billy Price

- Christian Kirk

- Rashad Penny

- Darius Leonard

- Brian O’Neill

- Avonte Maddox 

- 2019 1st

 

I am not one that believes Foles is the answer but thought this would be a fun exercise. 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Even in that scenario I want to make sure Edmunds or Smith isn't available at 12 before moving.

 

Yea me too. If 4 QBs go in the first 5 plus say Barkley.... that leaves Fitzpatrick, Nelson, Chubb and Ward (who I am not as high as some on but there are two big CB need teams at #8 and #9) then it would depend who went #10 and #11.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

Question:   Your team is in a passing down.  How many offensive linemen have to miss a block before the QB is out for the year with a concussion or broken leg....................But who needs offensive linemen?

[Bray Wyatt]

We did not trade up to trade back

 

Also we do not need a db in the first 3 rounds

[ddaryl]

LMFAO

 

Another wack-a-doodle scenario...  We will stay at 12 and take a top 10 player that will fall because of the run on QB's if that's the way it plays out

 

What fool would trade back from that..... 

[Sky Diver]

I agree. Rebuld the trenches.

 

No rookie QB will not be successful behind this OL.

[napmaster]

2 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

We did not trade up to trade back

 

Beane traded players to improve the cap situation for 2019 and got draft picks as compensation.  He has not traded up yet.

[Wsam4031]

14 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Yeah not like QB is important. Just get a guy later in the draft. Who cares right?

right! same ol sh@t new day

Just now, Sky Diver said:

I agree. Rebuld the trenches.

 

No rookie QB will not be successful behind this OL.

so then what do you do at qb if you build the trenches this year?

[Bray Wyatt]

Just now, napmaster said:

 

Beane traded players to improve the cap situation for 2019 and got draft picks as compensation.  He has not traded up yet.

 

Oh? Did we not give up pick 21 with Cordy Glenn?

[hemma]

I want that #12.

Odell Beckham, Fletcher Cox, Warren Sapp, Clay Matthews

 

You can get a stud at that spot and we need a few.

 

 

[Wsam4031]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ll play along but in a slightly different way. Keep 12, trade 22 and your 4th for a 2nd this year and 1st next year. Trade a 2nd and 2019 4th for Foles. The next month could look something like this:

 

- Foles

- Roquan Smith 

- Billy Price

- Christian Kirk

- Rashad Penny

- Darius Leonard

- Brian O’Neill

- Avonte Maddox 

- 2019 1st

 

I am not one that believes Foles is the answer but thought this would be a fun exercise. 

 

Eagles were already offered a 2nd and said they wouldn't take less than a first. They wanted 2 first but I think that's insane and they go down to 1 if anyone gave them one which nobody will do because Foles isn't that good

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, Wsam4031 said:

right! same ol sh@t new day

so then what do you do at qb if you build the trenches this year?

they rebuild the trenches then someone leaves so next year they have to rebuild something else and then it never ends.  there's always going to be holes on a team so i guess we just never get a QB right?  man, there are some really bad posts lately

[vorpma]

I somewhat agree with the point you are making, yes we need a franchise QB but the offensive line is not dominating; if you daft a franchise QB and he gets the hell beat out of him it can he is not going to do you much good!

1 minute ago, kdiggz said:

they rebuild the trenches then someone leaves so next year they have to rebuild something else and then it never ends.  there's always going to be holes on a team so i guess we just never get a QB right?  man, there are some really bad posts lately

This is not a bad post, there is a very legitimate point there!

[Will-GM-for-food]

If the Bills "filled other holes" and only got a late round QB who mysteriously doesn't end up playing like a 1st overall pick, these same people that are calling for a trade down would be complaining and hammering the Bills for picking Peterman 2.0

[NewEraBills]

LOL Baker Mayfield at #32.  Mmmm kay Walter.

[Wsam4031]

1 minute ago, kdiggz said:

they rebuild the trenches then someone leaves so next year they have to rebuild something else and then it never ends.  there's always going to be holes on a team so i guess we just never get a QB right?  man, there are some really bad posts lately

 I know I just don't get some people on this board. We've been ignoring the qb position for years trying to build at every other position. Quite frankly I don't care what we need to do to get a qb this year. Trade every pick if need be I don't care just get a damn QB in this draft! We will never win anything until we have one. so help me god if someone says well trent dilfer won one, im swan diving off the falls

[Sky Diver]

7 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

right! same ol sh@t new day

so then what do you do at qb if you build the trenches this year?

 

Current QBs plus one in the draft.

[Putin]

19 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick.

 

down to     gets us this overall pick

==============================

#14............100th player  (4th round)

#16.............78th player  (3rd round)

#18............60th player    (2nd round)

#20............55th player

#22.............48th player

#24.............44th player

#26.............40th player

#28.............36th player

#30.............32nd player

#32...............30.5th player (1st round)

.

.

From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea).

30.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30

31.

Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10

32.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17

33.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30

34.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30

35.

Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10

36.

James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9

37.

Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24

38.

Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19

39.

Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20

40.

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10

41.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9

42.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0

43.

Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30

44.

JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11

45.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30

46.

Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14

47.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17

48.

Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30

49.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30

50.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30

51.

R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9

52.

Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9

53.

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9

54.

Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9

55.

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest.

 http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC

 

A good center,  a good linebacker, a good WR or a  good RB.  You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for  your effort.     If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

 

 

 

 

If we don’t have a QB we’re not going anywhere ,  I don’t give a F@$@ about a LB or CB , I want a F @&! QB !! Odds are better that we find a LB , OL WR in a 3rd or even 4th rd , 

i don’t understand this line of thinking ? we use our 1st and 2nd round picks on LB , OL and so on , But the most important position and the one that kept us out of the playoffs for almost 2 decades , will just use a late 2nd or maybe 3rd rd to address it , 

i though this is the year we finally say enough is enough , we have the ammunition let’s use it and get our QB !!!!!

[StevieJohnsonGOAT]

It's 2018 and there are still people that haven't realized QB is the only position that matters in football.  Fascinating 

[Wsam4031]

2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Current QBs plus one in the draft.

so you thing AJ is good enough to win a super bowl? Which Qb are you drafting if you build up every other position in the earlier rounds?

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

We did not trade up to trade back

 

Also we do not need a db in the first 3 rounds

Okay,  how do you know this?   A common theme in reconnaissance and in camouflage is that people SEE what they EXPECT to see.   I think you evaluated the trade of Glenn as proving that the Bill's plan was solely to move up and draft a QB.  I think that is tunnel vision......  I think they wanted to dump an expensive salary-cap-and-declining-abilities player while he still had some value.  Did they trade any other near starting players to lose salary and replace with later draft picks who would be maturing at the same, later date?   Explain the trades of Goodwin, Darby, Watkins, Ragland, and Dareus, as well.  (Have you noticed that the Patriots trade away good, older players a year early for high draft picks to restock the team?)........The Bills could do many things with having the higher pick. One would be to trade further up to get a top QB. Another would be to take a stud player at a different position.  Another would be to trade down to get more first three round draft picks.   Avoid tunnel vision. There might be a train coming the other way.

[JPP]

This is the draft if your gonna try for a QB this is the one!  Mediocrity has reigned way too long.....get a flippin QB and the ongoing building cycle wont take as long....

[maryland-bills-fan]

19 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

We did not trade up to trade back

 

Also we do not need a db in the first 3 rounds

 what is the depth if a starter goes down?  ZIP.

[Putin]

1 minute ago, StevieJohnsonGOAT said:

It's 2018 and there are still people that haven't realized QB is the only position that matters in football.  Fascinating 

Hellooooo !!!!!!  Everybody look This ^^^^^^^^^^

[napmaster]

3 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Oh? Did we not give up pick 21 with Cordy Glenn?

 

Yes, he did.  He got $10M off the books for 2019 and also got 400 points draft capital.  So effectively a mid 2nd rounder value.

 

If he packages just picks to move up, then I would agree with you and he would never move down from that position.  At this point though, a trade down from 12 is not off the table. 

[Captain Hindsight]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Okay,  how do you know this?   A common theme in reconnaissance and in camouflage is that people SEE what they EXPECT to see.   I think you evaluated the trade of Glenn as proving that the Bill's plan was solely to move up and draft a QB.  I think that is tunnel vision......  I think they wanted to dump an expensive salary-cap-and-declining-abilities player while he still had some value.  Did they trade any other near starting players to lose salary and replace with later draft picks who would be maturing at the same, later date?   Explain the trades of Goodwin, Darby, Watkins, Ragland, and Dareus, as well.  (Have you noticed that the Patriots trade away good, older players a year early for high draft picks to restock the team?)........The Bills could do many things with having the higher pick. One would be to trade further up to get a top QB. Another would be to take a stud player at a different position.  Another would be to trade down to get more first three round draft picks.   Avoid tunnel vision. There might be a train coming the other way.

Conspiracy theories are fun.

 

You use the Pats* as an example of trading away talent to get picks. They also have Tom Brady. Bills have AJ McCarron and Nate "Picked off" Peterman.

 

They are trading up to get a QB. The only question is who and at what pick

[Wsam4031]

Just now, Putin said:

Hellooooo !!!!!!  Everybody look This ^^^^^^^^^^

thank you

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, StevieJohnsonGOAT said:

It's 2018 and there are still people that haven't realized QB is the only position that matters in football.  Fascinating 

 

We were in cap hell and needed to rebuild the roster. We don't have the nucleus to trade away all of our draft picks.

[NewEraBills]

2 minutes ago, StevieJohnsonGOAT said:

It's 2018 and there are still people that haven't realized QB is the only position that matters in football.  Fascinating 

 

Why must people operate in extremes?  I'll never understand it.  

 

 

 

I'm all for getting a QB but I guess we need to draft 22 of them since it is the only position that matters.

 

 

[cage]

If they can't move up for the whoever the guy is they want then I think they'll pick at #12,... little chance of trading back down.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

We were in cap hell and needed to rebuild the roster. We don't have the nucleus to trade away all of our draft picks.

 

We don't have the Quarterback not too.  

 

I know, I know AJ played for 'Bama..... if he is the answer we are asking the wrong question.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

 I know I just don't get some people on this board. We've been ignoring the qb position for years trying to build at every other position. Quite frankly I don't care what we need to do to get a qb this year. Trade every pick if need be I don't care just get a damn QB in this draft! We will never win anything until we have one. so help me god if someone says well trent dilfer won one, im swan diving off the falls

   Heh?    Remember that EJ guy they drafted in the first round?  Wasn't he a long snapper or backup punter?  ..... By the way, you want to trade EVERY pick?  Who is going to play linebacker?   (Oh, the new QB is going to go both ways.  Didn't think of that. Sorry.)

[NewEraBills]

1 minute ago, cage said:

If they can't move up for the whoever the guy is they want then I think they'll pick at #12,... little chance of trading back down.  

 

They might still trade if a guy like Smith, or James falls within range.

[Sky Diver]

1 minute ago, cage said:

If they can't move up for the whoever the guy is they want then I think they'll pick at #12,... little chance of trading back down.  

 

I agree. Grab a LB or a tackle, or a QB if a guy they like is there.

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We don't have the Quarterback not too.  

 

I know, I know AJ played for 'Bama..... if he is the answer we are asking the wrong question.  

 

We need to draft a QB, but we are not trading away our draft board to do it. Too many needs.