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Brady Quinn (CBS Sports) now projecting we trade up to take Josh Allen?!


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1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

http://cbsprt.co/2HCCmDV

 

The video has Brady Quinn's mock with the Bills moving up to take Allen 2nd overall...

I've been under the impression that Allen was a mid-round talent that could drop even further since he's so raw, and basically just has the prototypical QB "look," without the accolades & accomplishments to go with it.

Why would anyone TRADE UP to grab him? Maybe trade down, but into the top 3 and #2 overall?! The old Bills regimes were known for a few reaches, but this would be an even riskier one. Is there any talk of us having our sights set on him?

Granted it's just one mock, but we've seen this show before. A QB who's average-above average but with the look and size moves up not based on his on-field play, but his measurements/combine/pro-day/etc. as the draft gets closer. Really hoping there isn't a bigger thing going on behind the scenes here where people from OBD are lapping up Allen's "ceiling" & media members are catching wind of this.


Thankfully, this mock also by CBS Sports has us moving up to #3 & grabbing Darnold (who's actually the highest rated by NFL.com draft profile of any QB the past several years) - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-mock-draft-bills-trade-up-into-top-five-for-qb-saquon-barkley-drops/  and looks more realistic. Oddly, it also has Allen ranked high, this time at #1 overall.

According to NFL.com, Allen is rated a 6.01, Mayfield a 6.03,  Rosen a 6.19,  and Darnold a 7.0.

 

Why are teams so enamored with Allen?

 

You do realize these guys are just speculating like all of us.  It's just a guess.  He has no inside info

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One thing that makes me think all the talking heads link Allen to Buffalo is the "common knowledge"  that (1) you need a cannon arm to play in the frozen tundra of Buffalo, (2) you can't be from California to play in the frozen tundra of Buffalo, and (3) Buffalo's 'blue collar' fan base wants a big, strong, white, WASP, small town kid to play QB in the frozen tundra--AKA, Jim Kelley, Jr.    That profile fits Allen, and so it must be true.

 

I hate talking heads...

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If Rosen , Darnold and Mayfield are gone when the Bills draft,  hope McCarron can be a viable starter till Allen takes 2 years to develop.  The other option is Lamar or Rudolph. White in rd 2 another option. All depends if a trade with Giants , or Indy is possible. 

 

The Bills have to find the best QB coach like a Pat Shurmur. 

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Things will start sorting themselves out closer to draft day.  At this point, the combine/workouts are still fresh in people's minds.  Many of those in the media haven't done extensive film review yet.  Teams are throwing out smokescreens left and right.  It's hard to tell whether all the sudden Josh Allen hype is for real.

 

One thing to keep in mind though.  Scouts and GMs seem to place more emphasis on physical abilities than most of the general football-watching public.  Regular fans put more emphasis on stats and "how good" a player was in college. 

 

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Allen hype is real.  Although I personally would have REALLY have a tough time trading all these picks and moving up - just so we could take a massive boom/bust type prospect.  It's going to be an especially tough pill for Bills fans to swallow, because Allen's scouting report reads so close to EJ Manuel.  That's the main reason people are panicking over all the recent Josh Allen reports.

 

 

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1 hour ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

I guarantee Allen is this year's media hyped prospect. ESPN will have cameras on him all night as he sits there waiting to be called. Most NFL teams are not stupid enough to take such a raw prospect on measurables alone.

 

Totally agree 

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44 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Sounds like you're describing EJ Manuel. That was Chris Trepasso's list.

 

Skycap is onto me.  I paraphrased "prototype frame for pocket passer" into  "looks the way you want your QB to look" but the rest I've read pretty much verbatim.  And yes, I had EJ Manuel in mind when I wrote that list.

 

Here's the thing about project QB: it's great to take a later round shot on one, especially if you're a team with a QB and you're looking for someone with a high ceiling who might develop into The Man, as we did with Cardale Jones, kinda.  The higher you draft one and the stronger your need for a QB RIGHT NOW, the greater the looming disaster.

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan
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14 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Things will start sorting themselves out closer to draft day.  At this point, the combine/workouts are still fresh in people's minds.  Many of those in the media haven't done extensive film review yet.  Teams are throwing out smokescreens left and right.  It's hard to tell whether all the sudden Josh Allen hype is for real.

 

One thing to keep in mind though.  Scouts and GMs seem to place more emphasis on physical abilities than most of the general football-watching public.  Regular fans put more emphasis on stats and "how good" a player was in college. 

 

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Allen hype is real.  Although I personally would have REALLY have a tough time trading all these picks and moving up - just so we could take a massive boom/bust type prospect.  It's going to be an especially tough pill for Bills fans to swallow, because Allen's scouting report reads so close to EJ Manuel.  That's the main reason people are panicking over all the recent Josh Allen reports.

 

you're a smart man

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Wyoming’s team this year was absolutely horrendous!!! 

 

Allen has a solid 2016 season with Wyoming throwing 3000+ yds and Rushing for over 500 yds. 28 TDs 15 ints.  

 

Yes he he took a step back this year but his entire team took 3 steps back. His Oline has never been good, and if you’ve truly watch a game you’ll see the play calling at times is terrible at best.

 

The kids got crazy potential physically... mentally, nobody on this board knows him so you don’t know how smart he is, how fast he can grasp a concept etc, his leadership abilities etc....

 

If he has the brains, mental ability and leadership qualities teams look for no way he makes it out of the top 5....

 

 

40 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

you're a smart man

Thing is EJ was surrounded by 5 Star talent.... it’s hard to compare them cause Allen didn’t receive the level of coaching and have amazing talent around him... 

 

Id be willing to bet EJ would have been super crappy if he spent 3 years at Wyoming and played with that Oline.

 

Allen got by with talent alone...

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5 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

What happened is NFL GMs know how to play their cards. They have their eyes set on a guy or guys, and a good way to keep that secret is to give the impression that that person is someone else. 

 

Allen is the perfect pawn.

 

 

Mayock has him at #2. Is he smoke-screening for someone?

 

It's pretty much the consensus. 

 

I personally hope we don't take him but I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

 

4 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

No doubt that happens. That kind of thing isn't exclusive to football.

 

But the main issue in this thread shouldn't be the idea that Allen is being overhyped, or why. It should be the idea that the Bills, specifically, are the team that will draft him @ #2 overall.

 

IMO, Beane had eyes on a QB or QBs over a year ago, hence the trades to gain extra draft capital. Once they happened, many of us felt it was all with the intention of adding ammo for a move up in this year's draft for a QB. Now, Taylor is gone, and they moved Glenn to move up already, which all but tips the hand that the Bills want a QB In the draft.  I have a hard time believing that all of this was done for a player that wasn't considered a top 2 QB until 2018, warranted or not.

 

 

Beane and McD are from the Panthers, who chose Newton first overall, a guy who was on absolutely nobody's radar before that final year. Newton threw six passes in two years at Florida then spent a year at that JUCO, and then his terrific year at Auburn.

 

Not that I want Allen.

 

But I don't think there's any way to rule him out. I agree they've been looking at the QBs in this draft for awhile, but I can't imagine they'd close their minds when another guy starts to look draft-worthy. 

Edited by Thurman#1
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45 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Wyoming’s team this year was absolutely horrendous!!! 

Allen has a solid 2016 season with Wyoming throwing 3000+ yds and Rushing for over 500 yds. 28 TDs 15 ints.  

Yes he he took a step back this year but his entire team took 3 steps back. His Oline has never been good, and if you’ve truly watch a game you’ll see the play calling at times is terrible at best.

 

The kids got crazy potential physically... mentally, nobody on this board knows him so you don’t know how smart he is, how fast he can grasp a concept etc, his leadership abilities etc....

 

If he has the brains, mental ability and leadership qualities teams look for no way he makes it out of the top 5....

 

Thing is EJ was surrounded by 5 Star talent.... it’s hard to compare them cause Allen didn’t receive the level of coaching and have amazing talent around him... 

Id be willing to bet EJ would have been super crappy if he spent 3 years at Wyoming and played with that Oline.

Allen got by with talent alone...

 

I'm not 'that guy' who is going to debate witcha about talent on college team A of 5 years ago vs talent of college team B today.

 

It does seem to me the "talent" argument cuts both ways.... who were both of these guys playing against, what level of competition across the ball?

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not 'that guy' who is going to debate witcha about talent on college team A of 5 years ago vs talent of college team B today.

 

It does seem to me the "talent" argument cuts both ways.... who were both of these guys playing against, what level of competition across the ball?

But that’s the point, he’s saying all his highlights were of lesser or equal opponents... of course he’s not gonna have highlights against big schools cause 1, they don’t play them and 2 his team probably got crushed. It’s moot. 

He performed well in his Bowl game, played well in 2016 when he had more seniority around him and showed well during Senior Bowl week... 

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Apparently these experts have only been watching Allen's 2016 tape.

 

Allen certainly is the number one QB if you go by that. But the process contains ALL tape and Bills fans think the 2017 version of Allen is the final draft.

 

I loved Allen going into 2017, very skeptical now.

 

We shall see.

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49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Mayock has him at #2. Is he smoke-screening for someone.

 

It's pretty much the consensus. 

 

I personally hope we don't take him but I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

 

 

 

Beane and McD are from the Panthers, who chose Newton first overall, a guy who was on absolutely nobody's radar before that final year. Newton threw six passes in two years at Florida then spent a year at that JUCO, and then his terrific year at Auburn.

 

Not that I want Allen.

 

But I don't think there's any way to rule him out. I agree they've been looking at the QBs in this draft for awhile, but I can't imagine they'd close their minds when another guy starts to look draft-worthy. 

 

I get what you're saying, but I just don't see Allen being as good as advertised (hyped). He wasn't rated this high in December...

 

I get it; there's a lot to like about the guy. He has the size and good arm. Seems like a good, mature kid. But on the field (what matters most) he wasn't very consistent. If the hype is real, I don't get it, fully. Then again, I'm no scout or GM. 

 

I just don't think he's the guy you trade the farm for to draft in the top 3, especially based on the tape. 

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1 hour ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Wyoming’s team this year was absolutely horrendous!!! 

 

Allen has a solid 2016 season with Wyoming throwing 3000+ yds and Rushing for over 500 yds. 28 TDs 15 ints.  

 

Yes he he took a step back this year but his entire team took 3 steps back. His Oline has never been good, and if you’ve truly watch a game you’ll see the play calling at times is terrible at best.

 

The kids got crazy potential physically... mentally, nobody on this board knows him so you don’t know how smart he is, how fast he can grasp a concept etc, his leadership abilities etc....

 

If he has the brains, mental ability and leadership qualities teams look for no way he makes it out of the top 5....

 

 

Thing is EJ was surrounded by 5 Star talent.... it’s hard to compare them cause Allen didn’t receive the level of coaching and have amazing talent around him... 

 

Id be willing to bet EJ would have been super crappy if he spent 3 years at Wyoming and played with that Oline.

 

Allen got by with talent alone...

 

This right here is how you make an argument for Allen. Perhaps the talent he played with (or lack thereof) is something that GMs and scouts are factoring in more than most of us, and see through that.

 

On the other hand, Wyoming didn't exactly face the toughest, most talented opponents very often either.

Edited by Drunken Pygmy Goat
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1 hour ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

But that’s the point, he’s saying all his highlights were of lesser or equal opponents... of course he’s not gonna have highlights against big schools cause 1, they don’t play them and 2 his team probably got crushed.

 

I was responding to your comparison of EJ and Allen, saying EJ was surrounded by 5 star talent and would have been super-crappy if he spent 3 years at Wyoming.

Maybe.  I'm not equipped to compare the talent level in Florida 2012 and Wyoming 2017.  My point is just as they were surrounded by different levels of talent on their O, they were also facing different levels of talent.  Maybe if Allen were facing tougher D in a different conference, he would have looked super crappy even with more talent around him.  We can't tell, that's why it's kind of a pointless exercise.

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58 minutes ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

I get what you're saying, but I just don't see Allen being as good as advertised (hyped). He wasn't rated this high in December...

 

I get it; there's a lot to like about the guy. He has the size and good arm. Seems like a good, mature kid. But on the field (what matters most) he wasn't very consistent. If the hype is real, I don't get it, fully. Then again, I'm no scout or GM. 

 

I just don't think he's the guy you trade the farm for to draft in the top 3, especially based on the tape. 

 

 

As far as that, you're very reasonable and I actually agree, except for the part about what people were thinking in December means.

 

They've had more time to watch more tape and get a better picture of the guy.

 

But I'm also hoping we're not looking at him.

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Allen must have one hell of a agent, he has many mocking teams to take him way earlier then he should be. The kid is not a top 10 pick, he will have to sit at least a year while Darnold,Rosen and Mayfield could play year 1. Like I said I think his agent is selling hard to his friends to prop him up.

The old Bills staffs would be blind enough to take him at 2 but  I do not think this staff is that crazy to spend a top 5 pick on a QB that might not be able to start the 1st year or 2.

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 In EJ's draft year FSU set a draft record for most players taken in a single draft.... then the next season Winston takes them to the championship.... EJ had insane talent around him, that's why he looked half way decent. Allen has his faults but he sure as hell is a better qb compared to EJ.

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Mayock has him at #2. Is he smoke-screening for someone.

 

It's pretty much the consensus. 

 

I personally hope we don't take him but I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

 

 

 

Beane and McD are from the Panthers, who chose Newton first overall, a guy who was on absolutely nobody's radar before that final year. Newton threw six passes in two years at Florida then spent a year at that JUCO, and then his terrific year at Auburn.

 

Not that I want Allen.

 

But I don't think there's any way to rule him out. I agree they've been looking at the QBs in this draft for awhile, but I can't imagine they'd close their minds when another guy starts to look draft-worthy. 

 

 

Hadn't really thought of that. Ugh

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5 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

I love it!

 

Not the Bills selecting Allen, but the consensus that they will. 

 

It's smoky in here...

Almost too obvious...everyone should be asking themselves how do you draft a guy top 5 that has questions about accuracy?

 

if I’m drafting a guy that high, accuracy is the last thing I want to be worried about.

Edited by JaCrispy
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I was listening to a podcast recently that did an interview with a scout, and he had some interesting things to say about the quarterbacks. 

 

Basically, there's often a disparity between the opinions of the fans and the guys who get paid to find NFL talent. His biggest examples were Allen and Lamar Jackson. 

 

He said many fans loved Jackson, and were confused as to why front offices didn't love him so much or even wanted him to change positions. Allen was the opposite. Fans think he's a surefure bust who will only be drafted for his size/arm strength, but it seems he is looked at very differently by the professional scouts. I guess there are things that they see in these prospects that lead them to very different conclusions than us armchair GMs. 

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5 hours ago, BigDingus said:


He's really not though.. He's rated low on every chart.

NFL.com's draft profiles have him as the worst, and this one - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/quarterbacks/ has him ranked the 6th best QB prospect...

Everywhere I search, he's bottom of the barrel in terms of top names, and even when breaking down by skill set, he's ranked dead last in nearly every category except for arm strength & mobility.

 

Just stop. Allen is an excellent QB: Kiper has him ranked as No. 1:

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22134110/nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order

 

This site has him ranked as 3, ahead of Mayfield:

 

http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php

 

McShay has him at 3:

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/21668277/todd-mcshay-updated-top-32-prospects-ranking-2018-nfl-draft-nfl

 

Drafttek has him at 2:

 

https://www.drafttek.com/2018-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-QBs.asp

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5 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

No doubt that happens. That kind of thing isn't exclusive to football.

 

But the main issue in this thread shouldn't be the idea that Allen is being overhyped, or why. It should be the idea that the Bills, specifically, are the team that will draft him @ #2 overall.

 

IMO, Beane had eyes on a QB or QBs over a year ago, hence the trades to gain extra draft capital. Once they happened, many of us felt it was all with the intention of adding ammo for a move up in this year's draft for a QB. Now, Taylor is gone, and they moved Glenn to move up already, which all but tips the hand that the Bills want a QB In the draft.  I have a hard time believing that all of this was done for a player that wasn't considered a top 2 QB until 2018, warranted or not.

 

Totally agree. It's Rosen or Darnold, and Darnold is going #1. We're going to give up a boatload to move to #2 for Rosen imo, and I understand why. Please God let this work out.

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7 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

Pretty simple to figure out actually, and it's not due to what he did on the field.

I just find it strange that he was top 20 and then a good combine boosted him into 10 and know for no reason he is a top 3 pick. I see his name all over the place as the 1st QB off the board now.

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I just hope the browns take him 1. Makes it a lot easier on all of us, I'm not an expert, but I just have no interest in Allen or Rudolph.

 

I don't want them in the 7th round. I just don't have faith in them. I'll probably end up being wrong, like I was with Wentz, but then again, that's why I'm not getting paid to do this.

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4 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I just find it strange that he was top 20 and then a good combine boosted him into 10 and know for no reason he is a top 3 pick. I see his name all over the place as the 1st QB off the board now.

 

It happens all the time. Blaine Gabbert is a good example. Blake Bortles, to a lesser extent. It's the nature of the position. 

 

For the record, Blaine Gabbert was the only QB that I was 100% certain was being severely overhyped and wouldn't be very good. There have been a few QBs that I didn't think would be as good as they ended up being. Granted they weren't being overhyped like guys like Gabbert, but they slightly proved me wrong. Conversely, I was certain Dak and Deshaun would be good pros, while very few others agreed. 

 

I don't think Allen will ever be a Pro Bowl/franchise calibur type QB, but I could be wrong, and have been before. I don't want him to fail, and wish him the best. 

 

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6 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Almost too obvious...everyone should be asking themselves how do you draft a guy top 5 that has questions about accuracy?

 

if I’m drafting a guy that high, accuracy is the last thing I want to be worried about.

 

exactomundo, Maybe you spend the 22nd pick on a guy like Allen, although I view him as a day 2 guy, and only if you are totally blown away with the potential but way way to much draft capital to move up to top 5 and roll the dice on a guy like Allen

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12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Here we go, this page shows all of their picks - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft/

Pete Prisco has the Bills taking Josh Allen at #3

Brady Quinn has the Bills taking Josh Allen at #2

Will Brinson has the Browns taking Josh Allen at #1

Chris Trapasso has the Browns taking Josh Allen at #1

RJ White has the Browns taking Josh Allen at #1

Ryan Wilson has the Giants taking Josh Allen at #1

So wtf happened that shot Josh Allen up to #1? Look at his game log, he's not good against good teams, and has a mid 50% accuracy with ok numbers. 

I keep saying this because it's true: the draft is about PROJECTION. Does past performance matter? Yes. But it's not as if Allen was bad. He took a bona fide low-talent team to a bowl win, and he lit it up at the senior bowl and combine. He is also the most physically gifted qb in this draft by far. What's left? Attitude/brain/mentality, and apparently teams love it. This is not a jeff george or jay cutler that we're talking about. 

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7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I keep saying this because it's true: the draft is about PROJECTION. Does past performance matter? Yes. But it's not as if Allen was bad. He took a bona fide low-talent team to a bowl win, and he lit it up at the senior bowl and combine. He is also the most physically gifted qb in this draft by far. What's left? Attitude/brain/mentality, and apparently teams love it. This is not a jeff george or jay cutler that we're talking about. 

 This sums it up...that fact that 90% of this board hates the idea of drafting josh Allen is leading me to believe he might be the right pick.

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It all depends on how much risk a team is comfortable with and whether or not they think Allen's main issue (his inconsistent accuracy) is fixable or not. If a team feels that Allen's passes are inconsistent due to poor footwork, they'll probably have him rated as their #1 or 2 QB in the draft because they'll just blame that on poor coaching and think that they can fix him, and with his physical tools, turn him into an elite QB. If a team feels that even with good footwork, Allen would still be inaccurate, they won't want him.

 

In terms of the Bills connections to him, Benjamin Allbright (who I generally don't trust) reported that Buffalo was very interested in Nate Peterman the day before they drafted him, and he's saying that his same source has told him that Josh Allen is the guy this year (originally told him way back in like October, but has been consistent in that all year). On the flipside, Matt Miller has said that he's been hearing for like 6 months now that Sam Darnold is the #1 QB on the Bills' board and that no other team like Darnold as much as the Bills do. On top of that, there's been countless rumors at this point that the Bills supposedly love Rosen. And based on his interview with Beane, Joe Buscaglia came away thinking that Beane prioritizes arm strength over accuracy and off the top of my head, I think his belief is that Rosen and Allen are #1 and 2 on their draft board. One of these people is probably correct, but we probably won't know until the pick is made which person it was.

Edited by DCOrange
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13 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It all depends on how much risk a team is comfortable with and whether or not they think Allen's main issue (his inconsistent accuracy) is fixable or not. If a team feels that Allen's passes are inconsistent due to poor footwork, they'll probably have him rated as their #1 or 2 QB in the draft because they'll just blame that on poor coaching and think that they can fix him, and with his physical tools, turn him into an elite QB. If a team feels that even with good footwork, Allen would still be inaccurate, they won't want him.

 

In terms of the Bills connections to him, Benjamin Allbright (who I generally don't trust) reported that Buffalo was very interested in Nate Peterman the day before they drafted him, and he's saying that his same source has told him that Josh Allen is the guy this year (originally told him way back in like October, but has been consistent in that all year). On the flipside, Matt Miller has said that he's been hearing for like 6 months now that Sam Darnold is the #1 QB on the Bills' board and that no other team like Darnold as much as the Bills do. On top of that, there's been countless rumors at this point that the Bills supposedly love Rosen. And based on his interview with Beane, Joe Buscaglia came away thinking that Beane prioritizes arm strength over accuracy and off the top of my head, I think his belief is that Rosen and Allen are #1 and 2 on their draft board. One of these people is probably correct, but we probably won't know until the pick is made which person it was.

The bills’ love for darnold makes all the sense in the world, but i would also point out that i believe the bills think they have no chance at darnold, who is going 1 overall to cleveland. I’d bet a lot of money on that too. 

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15 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The bills’ love for darnold makes all the sense in the world, but i would also point out that i believe the bills think they have no chance at darnold, who is going 1 overall to cleveland. I’d bet a lot of money on that too. 

 

Yeah I agree with all of that too. I think Darnold is going #1.

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