LOL have you heard Mel Kiper's mock 2.0?

[BillsVet]

41 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

Im not sure why all of these mocks having us taking a center early. These people must not pay enough attention to the bills to realize they really like Ryan Groy. If we take a center with one of our 2 first picks over LB, DT, CB, QB, WR ill join in killing kittens with puppies

 

At this juncture it's a safe bet to just go with teams addressing need in a mock draft.  That's what Kiper's done here because the national draft guys know Wood retired and Buffalo needs a CB to replace Gaines.

 

I don't see McBeane as the types who'll sit tight and draft for straight need. And of course as others have said, the draft board becomes more clear after the first wave of free agents are signed.

[nuklz2594]

have we drafted more first round cbs than anyone else?  damn...we are always mocked for a cb

[Luxy312]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agreed, but the only FA QB on that list that I think teams will seriously think are long-term answers (ie, no need to draft a QB) is Cousins.  A team signing any of the other FA QBs would still be wise to draft a QB early.  Keenum and McCarron have limited track records of success and have always been thought of as backups - they could blossom, but they could prove to be what most always thought.  Bridgewater has serious health questions (knee) and was promising, but not great before his devastating injury.  Bradford is very good when healthy, but has a long injury history.

 

 

In general, I don't disagree with the point that Cousins is the only clear long term QB.  However, all 6 of what people are calling "first round" QB's have flaws.  Scouting reports that I've read so far vary significantly in terms of who gets picked early and who doesn't.  Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, and Rudolph are all the #1 pick on some boards.  Only Jackson is picked between 3rd and 8th for QB's.  Being that this is not a Wentz/Goff or Luck/Griffin type of draft, I could see teams that think they can compete now looking to free agency to fill the void, even if only a shorter term solution.  The Browns and the Jets do not, of course, meet that description.  The Cardinals, Vikings, and Broncos clearly do.

[nucci]

10 minutes ago, nuklz2594 said:

have we drafted more first round cbs than anyone else?  damn...we are always mocked for a cb

I know it's unpopular but you need 3-4 CBs who can play regularly....most teams line up 3 WRs every play

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, nucci said:

I know it's unpopular but you need 3-4 CBs who can play regularly....most teams line up 3 WRs every play

It's unpopular because we've had good cbs before.  We've spent lots of first round picks on them, often letting them walk after their rookie deal is up and replacing them.  That is our usual M.O.  You need cbs, of course, but you need qb more.  The latter is harder to find, yes, but where has having a good defensive backfield gotten us when the offense is always terminally handicapped by inadequate qb play?  

[Chuck Wagon]

21 minutes ago, nucci said:

I know it's unpopular but you need 3-4 CBs who can play regularly....most teams line up 3 WRs every play

 

 

Which is fine. The frustration I feel (and probably others feel) is repeatedly using early round draft picks on the position then letting the ones who can play walk in FA.  I realize it's different regimes and different defensive styles, but it feels like running on a treadmill to say the position is important enough to draft early repeatedly but never important enough to pay a second contract.

[nucci]

8 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Which is fine. The frustration I feel (and probably others feel) is repeatedly using early round draft picks on the position then letting the ones who can play walk in FA.  I realize it's different regimes and different defensive styles, but it feels like running on a treadmill to say the position is important enough to draft early repeatedly but never important enough to pay a second contract.

I concur

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

It's unpopular because we've had good cbs before.  We've spent lots of first round picks on them, often letting them walk after their rookie deal is up and replacing them.  That is our usual M.O.  You need cbs, of course, but you need qb more.  The latter is harder to find, yes, but where has having a good defensive backfield gotten us when the offense is always terminally handicapped by inadequate qb play?  

1st round playoff game this year? JK, I agree with you

[OldTimer1960]

53 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

 

In general, I don't disagree with the point that Cousins is the only clear long term QB.  However, all 6 of what people are calling "first round" QB's have flaws.  Scouting reports that I've read so far vary significantly in terms of who gets picked early and who doesn't.  Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, and Rudolph are all the #1 pick on some boards.  Only Jackson is picked between 3rd and 8th for QB's.  Being that this is not a Wentz/Goff or Luck/Griffin type of draft, I could see teams that think they can compete now looking to free agency to fill the void, even if only a shorter term solution.  The Browns and the Jets do not, of course, meet that description.  The Cardinals, Vikings, and Broncos clearly do.

Agreed. For sure all of the QBs in the draft have questions that would give me pause before I spent a lot of draft picks to move up to take one. 

 

I was only postulating that I could envision a team's strategy being: "Let's sign McCarron or Bradford or Keenum.  Because we are not sold on those guys being long-term answers (for varied reasons), let's also take one of the highly rated QBs in hopes that he IS the long-term answer". 

Edited February 21, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[P51]

2 hours ago, Buffalo30 said:

I just think Daniels ability to get to the second level is elite.  He is what teams are looking for in terms of athleticism at that position.  Wynn could play all of the positions IMO but he would probably fair the best at guard.

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree on Wynn.  I think Daniels lacks power and I think against big powerful D tackles that can move at speed he has problems as well... you see that level of opponent very rarely in college but pretty regularly in the NFL.  I think he is a solid 2nd round prospect and he'd have a chance to compete for the job day 1 but for me there are enough deficiencies to see him as a reach at 21/22.  

 

RE: Daniels; do either of you see a Cameron Erving like skill set?

[Tatonka68]

Does not take in account Cousins, Keenum, Bradford, McCarran or Bridgewater or any trades which will be plenty.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Wsam4031 said:

Im not sure why all of these mocks having us taking a center early. These people must not pay enough attention to the bills to realize they really like Ryan Groy. If we take a center with one of our 2 first picks over LB, DT, CB, QB, WR ill join in killing kittens with puppies

 

To be fair, the Bills had a revolving door of sucky play at RG last year, which Groy has played in the past, and he still didn't get a shot at all under the new regime. Rex Ryan certainly seemed to like him, but I'm not so sure we can say the same about McDermott. And if the Bills like Groy so much, he could step in at RG; both RG and C appear to be holes on this roster and Groy can only fill one of them.

 

And at least based on Kiper's mock and rankings, there was a pretty sizeable gap in ranking between Daniels and the closest LB (Vander Esch), DT, WR, and QB, and he already had Buffalo taking a CB.

Edited February 21, 2018 by DCOrange

[TheFunPolice]

sign Cousins and draft two 350 lb DTs back to back in the 1st.

 

Then when we are on defense we can all scream THOU SHALT NOT PASS! every time a team tries running it up the middle. It will be fun!

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

 

RE: Daniels; do either of you see a Cameron Erving like skill set?

 

I think the struggle with "big and fast" inside is the same.  Neither liked the powerful, fast, bull rusher DTs.  Erving was a bit a jack of all trades coming out.... but I did actually quite like him I am ashamed to say.  That year of Shelton and Erving for the Browns in the 1st was one of my admitted draft fails in a recent thread.  

[Luxy312]

39 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agreed. For sure all of the QBs in the draft have questions that would give me pause before I spent a lot of draft picks to move up to take one. 

 

I was only postulating that I could envision a team's strategy being: "Let's sign McCarron or Bradford or Keenum.  Because we are sold on those guys being long-term answers (for varied reasons), let's also take one of the highly rated QBs in hopes that he IS the long-term answer". 

 

Just for fun, I went back and looked at the last 20 years of quarterbacks drafted in the top-20.  There were 44 of them.  There were only 6 instances where a team both drafted a quarterback in the top-20 in the draft AND looked to free agency for a starter.  They include:

• Bears in 2017 with Glennon, drafting Trubisky
• Vikings in 2011 with McNabb, drafting Ponder
• Raiders in 2007 with Culpepper drafting Russell
• Giants (via Chargers) in 2004 with Warner drafting Rivers and swapping for Manning
• Eagles in 1999 with Pederson drafting McNabb
• Vikings in 1999 with George drafting Culpepper

Maybe I'm just over simplifying, but if some combination of teams grab Cousins, Bradford, McCarron, or Keenum to be a starter, the likelihood of one team then also drafting a QB in the top-20 of the draft is very small at about 1 in 200.  The odds of all 4 doing it are about 1 in 2,000,000.

By making me do some math here, you've proven to me that free agency is pretty much everything as far as the Bills strategy is with the draft, depending on how high they value the "top-6" and if they truly differentiate between talent and potential of the candidates.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Luxy312

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

When it comes to Mel Kiper, I am a fan of Jim Tobin

LOL this

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

 

Just for fun, I went back and looked at the last 20 years of quarterbacks drafted in the top-20.  There were 44 of them.  There were only 6 instances where a team both drafted a quarterback in the top-20 in the draft AND looked to free agency for a starter.  They include:

• Bears in 2017 with Glennon, drafting Trubisky
• Vikings in 2011 with McNabb, drafting Ponder
• Raiders in 2007 with Culpepper drafting Russell
• Giants (via Chargers) in 2004 with Warner drafting Rivers and swapping for Manning
• Eagles in 1999 with Pederson drafting McNabb
• Vikings in 1999 with George drafting Culpepper

Maybe I'm just over simplifying, but if some combination of teams grab Cousins, Bradford, McCarron, or Keenum to be a starter, the likelihood of one team then also drafting a QB in the top-20 of the draft is very small at about 1 in 200.  The odds of all 4 doing it are about 1 in 2,000,000.

By making me do some math here, you've proven to me that free agency is pretty much everything as far as the Bills strategy is with the draft, depending on how high they value the "top-6" and if they truly differentiate between talent and potential of the candidates.

I'm not arguing, but I'm not following your math.  If there were 44 QBs picked in the top 20 in that time period and of those times, there were 6 occurrences of teams that also signed a FA QB, then I think the raw probability is 6/44 or a bit over 13%. 

 

Even with that, I think you have to consider the FA QBs that were available as well as what QBs were picked in the draft and how early/late they were selected.  In the case of a team who was planning to draft a QB in round 1, whether they also signed a FA QB would have depended on what FA QBs were available and what veteran QB(s) that team already had on their roster.  I think each situation has to be considered separately.

 

Denver, for example, currently has Paxton Lynch and Trevor Simeon.  They also currently have an excellent defense and a good amount of talent on offense as well.  I think it may be that Denver says, "we know that Case Keenum is better than what we currently have, but we think Baker Mayfield has much better long-term potential.  We also don't think Mayfield is quite ready to start".  If they think that way, it would make sense for them to sign a vet like Keenum AND draft a QB at 5.  Now, no debate, if Denver signs Cousins to a big contract, they won't likely take a QB early.

 

The Jets, on the other hand, are not so close to being a contender and likely would not see value in signing a veteran AND drafting a QB.  If they were inclined to go that route, they'd just keep McCown as that veteran and draft a young QB.

 

Beyond the Broncos and Jets, Miami (11), Cinci (12), Washington (13) and Arizona (15) could all consider a QB in round 1.  Of those teams, I think only Arizona would consider signing a FA QB because I don't think the FA QBs (other than Cousins) are clear upgrades over Tannehill, Dalton and Alex Smith.  Yet, I don't think any of those teams are so sold on their current QB that they would not strongly consider taking a QB.

[Mat68]

I think if Rosen caught a bit of slide Buffalo would be likely to move up and get him.  

[billspro]

That would be a brutal draft day. Good thing Kiper is the worst in the business.

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think if Rosen caught a bit of slide Buffalo would be likely to move up and get him.  

 

Ya I think if he falls that far you almost have to trade up for him. 

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, joesixpack said:

Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round.

 

I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome.

 

 

 

That would be bad. But put the kitten down please. 

[The Now Moment]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree on Wynn.  I think Daniels lacks power and I think against big powerful D tackles that can move at speed he has problems as well... you see that level of opponent very rarely in college but pretty regularly in the NFL.  I think he is a solid 2nd round prospect and he'd have a chance to compete for the job day 1 but for me there are enough deficiencies to see him as a reach at 21/22.  

Fair enough.

1 hour ago, P51 said:

 

 

RE: Daniels; do either of you see a Cameron Erving like skill set?

I think Daniels needs to get a bit stronger but he is athletically quick in both his feet and hands like Erving.  If he doesn't add a little weight, he could get pushed around too much but we will see what his weight is at the combine and bench press too.  If he shows he's improved...he's a first round guy IMO.  Erving played more on the outside than Daniels.  Daniels has a good amount of experience inside at center whereas Erving was moved around a lot.

[MAJBobby]

zzzzz Isnt Kiper supposed to retire already after his Jimmy Clausen " I will retire if he is not good comment"

[Luxy312]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I'm not arguing, but I'm not following your math.  If there were 44 QBs picked in the top 20 in that time period and of those times, there were 6 occurrences of teams that also signed a FA QB, then I think the raw probability is 6/44 or a bit over 13%. 

 

Even with that, I think you have to consider the FA QBs that were available as well as what QBs were picked in the draft and how early/late they were selected.  In the case of a team who was planning to draft a QB in round 1, whether they also signed a FA QB would have depended on what FA QBs were available and what veteran QB(s) that team already had on their roster.  I think each situation has to be considered separately.

 

Denver, for example, currently has Paxton Lynch and Trevor Simeon.  They also currently have an excellent defense and a good amount of talent on offense as well.  I think it may be that Denver says, "we know that Case Keenum is better than what we currently have, but we think Baker Mayfield has much better long-term potential.  We also don't think Mayfield is quite ready to start".  If they think that way, it would make sense for them to sign a vet like Keenum AND draft a QB at 5.  Now, no debate, if Denver signs Cousins to a big contract, they won't likely take a QB early.

 

The Jets, on the other hand, are not so close to being a contender and likely would not see value in signing a veteran AND drafting a QB.  If they were inclined to go that route, they'd just keep McCown as that veteran and draft a young QB.

 

Beyond the Broncos and Jets, Miami (11), Cinci (12), Washington (13) and Arizona (15) could all consider a QB in round 1.  Of those teams, I think only Arizona would consider signing a FA QB because I don't think the FA QBs (other than Cousins) are clear upgrades over Tannehill, Dalton and Alex Smith.  Yet, I don't think any of those teams are so sold on their current QB that they would not strongly consider taking a QB.

 

You do realize that Washington just gave Alex Smith a huge contract worth over $20m per year and $60m in guarantees right?  They're not drafting a QB in the first round.  I'll guarantee you that right now.  Cinci's contract with Dalton goes through 2020 and is cap friendly.  I would rate that a solid "NO" as well.  The speculation was originally about the possibility of McCarron becoming the starter, and he's now a free agent.  It was also coupled with the speculation of a potential head coaching change, and the team signed Marvin Lewis to a 2-year deal just a month ago.  Actual statistics would also tell you that the free agents out there are not necessarily an upgrade over Dalton, unless you're talking about Cousins.  The TBD's right now in my opinion are Minnesota who, if they don't go after Cousins, will sign at least one or two of the guys on the roster last season.  For the Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals there's no doubt they need a QB.  The Broncos and Jets both also have need of a left tackle.  I guess I just find the notion that all of these teams are going to reach for a QB, when they have other pressing issues is a big reach.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Luxy312 said:

 

You do realize that Washington just gave Alex Smith a huge contract worth over $20m per year and $60m in guarantees right?  They're not drafting a QB in the first round.  I'll guarantee you that right now.  Cinci's contract with Dalton goes through 2020 and is cap friendly.  I would rate that a solid "NO" as well.  The speculation was originally about the possibility of McCarron becoming the starter, and he's now a free agent.  It was also coupled with the speculation of a potential head coaching change, and the team signed Marvin Lewis to a 2-year deal just a month ago.  Actual statistics would also tell you that the free agents out there are not necessarily an upgrade over Dalton, unless you're talking about Cousins.  The TBD's right now in my opinion are Minnesota who, if they don't go after Cousins, will sign at least one or two of the guys on the roster last season.  For the Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals there's no doubt they need a QB.  The Broncos and Jets both also have need of a left tackle.  I guess I just find the notion that all of these teams are going to reach for a QB, when they have other pressing issues is a big reach.

Sorry didn’t read your post closely enough earlier.  If all that holds true,  Miami and Cards could both take QBs before Buffalo picks.  Even if Denver or Jets sign Cousins, I think Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield will all be gone before a pick that the Bills could realistically get to without giving up a King's ransom.

 

My mental picture of those 3 is: Rudolph: highest floor, lowest ceiling but could be decent to good starter, Jackson and Allen: Highest ceilings, but lowest floors - could be great, or never even be a decent starter.

 

I think that Darnold and Rosen will at least be competent starters at the least.  I like Mayfield a lot, but there is some chance that he doesn't make it because of his size.

Edited February 21, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[Jay_Fixit]

4 hours ago, joesixpack said:

Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round.

 

I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome.

 

 

Good thing it’s a mock. By Mel Kiper.

 

Mocks = terrible (no matter who does them)

Mel Kiper = terrible

 

Mock + Mel Kiper = Flat earther

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, joesixpack said:

Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round.

 

I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome.

 

 

 

Honestly, Kiper is utterly terrible at mocking drafts.  His mocks (literally all versions each draft year) he does every year are never anywhere close to what actually happens.  He is about as successful at mocking the picks as that nut job Jim Cramer is at picking winners in the stock market.  Might as well just throw darts at pictures.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Don Beebe]

4 hours ago, H2o said:

I have wondered how Kiper has kept his job for a looooong time. McShay, who also is not the greatest by any means, makes Kiper look stupid over and over. It kind of reminds me of the scouting department version of John Clayton\Sean Salisbury. 

I remember when we drafted Thurman Thomas in the 2nd round and Kiper said Thurman was a waste of a pick. I have laughed about Kiper since then.

[Da webster guy]

The second I see a mock with Bills taking a center I ignore the rest of the guy's picks.   We have a solid guy in Groy and a hundred other holes to fill.

 

Mayock was head and shoulders better than anyone in terms of his mock accuracy last year.

[BuffAlone]

Better yet it cbs' latest mock. Bills get Mayfield at 5, and Vea at 22. I'd do backflips if this happened!

[Luxy312]

14 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

Better yet it cbs' latest mock. Bills get Mayfield at 5, and Vea at 22. I'd do backflips if this happened!

 

I would personally lose my mind.  Friday will be a vacation day if that happens.

[buffaloaggie]

As everyone ponders moving up in the draft, here are the draft values of the Bills' picks

 

R1-800

R1-780

R2-370

R2-350

R3-116

R4-60

R5-31.4

R5-28.2

Total is 2535, #2 pick has a 2600 value. 1400 is #8 pick.

[BuffAlone]

1 minute ago, buffaloaggie said:

As everyone ponders moving up in the draft, here are the draft values of the Bills' picks

 

R1-800

R1-780

R2-370

R2-350

R3-116

R4-60

R5-31.4

R5-28.2

Total is 2535, #2 pick has a 2600 value. 1400 is #8 pick.

Cool...let's not forget next year's picks tho. Also, this mock had us trading up to 5, not 2

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said:

As everyone ponders moving up in the draft, here are the draft values of the Bills' picks

 

R1-800

R1-780

R2-370

R2-350

R3-116

R4-60

R5-31.4

R5-28.2

Total is 2535, #2 pick has a 2600 value. 1400 is #8 pick.

That looks like old Jimmy Johnson values. Some may use them, but they're a bit outdated since the wage scale came into play.

[par73]

Worst mock I've seen for the Bills. A center in the 1st and another DB? LOL

[buffaloaggie]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

That looks like old Jimmy Johnson values. Some may use them, but they're a bit outdated since the wage scale came into play.

Agreed. Bills would give up more for not as high a pick.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, buffaloaggie said:

Agreed. Bills would give up more for not as high a pick.

Not really. The new chart values + trade up tax puts our first 2 picks at equal value with pick 5

[buffaloaggie]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Not really. The new chart values + trade up tax puts our first 2 picks at equal value with pick 5

The tax burden is on the Bills, so I'd only see a #7 for our two 1st rounders. Where is the new draft value chart?

[xRUSHx]

5 hours ago, joesixpack said:

Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round.

 

I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome.

 

 

Sadly this could be true, we could end up in the same OBD way of drafting. I wanted to point to Whaley as the QB purgatory enabler but sadly this could be a OBD issue. If they don't move up we will know who to point at when they miss out on a QB again. I agree by far the worse scenario to happen.

[Misterbluesky]

5 hours ago, joesixpack said:

Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round.

 

I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome.

 

 

I could see part of that working..Daniels at RG.But a corner? How does he know if the Beane counter will or will not pay bank to Gaines?

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said:

The tax burden is on the Bills, so I'd only see a #7 for our two 1st rounders. Where is the new draft value chart?

Rich Hill released it last year around draft time. And yes, I know the tax burden is on the team moving up. 21 + 22 is worth ~110% of pick number 5 based on every draft trade made from 2011-2016. In that same time period trading into the top 2 has carried an average tax of 28%, trading into the top 5 has carried an average tax of 9% and trading into the top 10 has had an average tax of 4%.

 

He actually put out 2 and they're different, not sure why. But this one is the only one I've found where if you go back and check any trade since 2011 the values actually make sense in the end. because of that, it is definitely my preferred one.

Edited February 21, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Yard Monkey]

1 hour ago, Don Beebe said:

I remember when we drafted Thurman Thomas in the 2nd round and Kiper said Thurman was a waste of a pick. I have laughed about Kiper since then.

Your post brought back memories of that draft so I looked it up and found this article>

http://articles.latimes.com/1988-04-25/sports/sp-1164_1_nfl-draft 

 

Funny how wrong the writer is about pretty much everything related to the draft! Other than "Mel Kiper, whoever he is, and his 200-word sentences"

Wonder if he would have believed that the draft would turn into a 3+ day event and newspapers would be out of business in 30 years (vs. his prediction that draft are to be covered by newspapers and not TV