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Mel Kiper's new Big Board and Position Rankings


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For those with insider access, here's a link:

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22455315/mel-kiper-2018-nfl-draft-big-board-top-25-prospects-ranking-position-position-top-10s

 

Top 10 QBs (top 4 are all in his top 10 overall big board):

1. Josh Allen

2. Sam Darnold

3. Josh Rosen

4. Baker Mayfield

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Mason Rudolph

7. Kyle Lauletta

8. Luke Falk

9. Mike White

10. Chase Litton

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23 minutes ago, Pete said:

4 QB's will be drafted top 10 IMO after some wild trades.  I expect Cleveland and perhaps GMen trade down

 

I will be shocked if Cleveland trades down.  The last thing they want is more picks in money ball fashion with Dorsey and company now in charge.

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1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I will be shocked if Cleveland trades down.  The last thing they want is more picks in money ball fashion with Dorsey and company now in charge.

 

It's to the point now that if they draft well, they're going to end up running out of cap space when it comes time to sign all these guys to new contracts haha. IF they do trade down from 1 or 4, I expect that they'll trade up multiple other times throughout the draft to consolidate picks a little bit and make sure they get all the guys they really want.

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14 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

From all the different in depth review I read on this guy he should be a 4th round pick at best

 

If this was sarcasm, I apologize.  I'm no Allen homer by any means, but 4th round?!?! And I've read a lot about him as well.  Even watched 2 whole games! And I wasn't that impressed in that huge sample size.  But 4th round?!?

 

**My Personal QB Strategy Disclosure:  I just want the Bills to like a guy enough they go up and get him. (that's my first choice of options).  Do I have a top 4 rankings of those guys in my head? Sure.  Do I for one second pretend to know where they SHOULD slot? Nope. But that's not a cool take in this Hot Take world. 

Edited by Nineforty
grammar
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What I don't like about Allen is he seems to bail from the pocket early. At Wyoming this resulted in a ton of big plays as he's good outside the pocket. It just won't work in the NFL. He will get sacked before those plays will develop. Allen has the strongest arm and best build. That will always intrigue scouts. Sometimes it will do so to the extent he goes way higher than he should. I wouldn't be shocked if he is one of the first off the board or if he slides to the 20's. 

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38 minutes ago, D521646 said:

Wow, Allen at 1, seems a bit odd to me.  Is this Clausen all over again? :) arm

 

Tim-

With Allen, it's all about perceived potential based on his physical makeup.  He's big, athletic, and has a cannon arm.  It doesnn't  hurt that he came from a somewhat pro style offense, but the physical traits are the big thing.

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18 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I could certainly see them trading out of 4 if they get their QB. 

I have heard a number of Cleveland reporters say that because Cleveland has accumulated so many picks that their strategy is to get selected stud players rather than add a quantity of good players. 

 

Another factor as to why they would be reluctant to trade down at the expense of not getting an elite player or two is that they have plenty of cap space to fill in the roster. I get the sense that the new GM is focusing on a more immediate result than continue on with this interminable building process. 

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Kiper's QB list seems based off of potential ceiling, as opposed to anything else. From what I've read elsewhere, Allen does have the biggest potential, with the measureables, but there's no hint of the fact he could very easily be bust city. A classic 'boom or bust' type. And these days, the NFL is very quick to label a bust...

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36 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Possible, but IMO they take another highly rated player after grabbing their potential franchise guy at #1 in Darnold. 

If the Bills offered them 21,22 and next year’s 1 for 4 they would be foolish not to take it. Darnold, Guice, Josh Jackson and a 2019 1st > Darnold and Fitzpatrick

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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If the Bills offered them 21,22 and next year’s 1 for 4 they would be foolish not to take it. Darnold, Guice, Josh Jackson and a 2019 1st > Darnold and Fitzpatrick

 

Something to consider, but they are already loaded with picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds courtesy of the Houston Texans.   They also have the Eagles 2nd round pick.

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1 hour ago, Pete said:

4 QB's will be drafted top 10 IMO after some wild trades.  I expect Cleveland and perhaps GMen trade down

 

I used to think this...but I dont think thats as likely anymore in the post Smith trade era.

 

Cle will take a QB.

Someone will sign Cousins, and I think it will be either Denver or Jets.  That would take one of them out of the QB spots.  If AZ signs Cousins, then we are back to 3 definite QB's in the top 10 as both Den and Jets would take one. But I think Denver is the landing spot for Cousins because I think its the best overall situation for both Denver and Cousins.

Giants are not taking a QB IMO and will trade down for whoever wants to leap frog for the QB they want.

 

AZ will take a QB (if they dont sign Cousins) but dont know they will trade up to get one.  Arians when he left said Lamar is special and raved about him and talked about him like he was his favorite QB in the draft.  Odds are Arians did not form that opinion alone and was formed during him and the teams research and scouting of this years QB's knowing Palmers age and possible retirement.  So very possible he is the one they want in the draft and they likely do not have to trade up to get him based on where they pick.

 

So that just leaves 2 teams that will certainly take a QB in the top 10...Cle and whoever doesn't sign Cousins (Jets or Broncos).  Anyone else in the top 10 wouldnt take a QB, so only a QB needy team would trade up.  And there are not a lot of teams that fit that description, and Bills are definitely one of them who could.   

 

While I do think its definitely possible 4 QB's could go in the top 10, I do think its not nearly as likely as it looked before Cousins officially was leaving Wash.

 

And if Cleveland really likes Allen best, I think they take him at #4 and someone else like Barkley at #1.  Giants would be in a prime position to trade down, and I would think we would be very attractive trade partner if Bills wanted to go to #2 since we can offer 2 first rounders to get Eli some help, especially on the OL and RB positions.

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14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If the Bills offered them 21,22 and next year’s 1 for 4 they would be foolish not to take it. Darnold, Guice, Josh Jackson and a 2019 1st > Darnold and Fitzpatrick

 

I think Cleveland would take it. Me? I'd take Darnold and Chubb or Fitzpatrick whichever one is there for me.

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1 hour ago, offyourocker said:

From all the different in depth review I read on this guy he should be a 4th round pick at best

 

Your username is appropriate.

 

I'm not saying Allen is #1 or kiper is right on him by any means, but a "4th round pick at best" is just complete exaggeration or ignorance.

 

He is a first round pick on his physical attributes/arm alone for most.

 

If he makes it out of the top 15 I'd be surprised.

 

You can dislike him, think he's a project, whatever, all you want.

 

Saying he's a 4th rounder at best is complete hogwash though.

Edited by SouthNYfan
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Cleveland would take it. Me? I'd take Darnold and Chubb or Fitzpatrick whichever one is there for me.

I like Chubb a lot but think that he goes 3. The thing about Cleveland (assuming that they took it) could still pretty much get anybody. Say they took that deal and Fitzpatrick is still on the board at 7. They can come back up to get him and preserve the extra 1 in 2019. They would have such an insane amount of capital they can pretty much target a guy and then go get him. 

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41 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

We need to get one of the top 4 guys. If we don't get a guy in the top QB draft in the past 14 years then this administration is a joke and I will no longer trust the process

 

What if we somehow end up with an extra 1st Rounder in 2019, don't take a quarterback in 2018 draft, and roll with Peterman/Vet/undrafted rookie in 2018, resulting in a 5-11 record and our own top 10 pick?  What if the top 4 guys in your opinion (and most analysts) is not their top 4? What if they have 1 guy rated as worthy of trading up for and they can't get there?  What if 2019 is the best QB class in the past 15 years? Why box yourself in with this nonsense?

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6 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

What I don't like about Allen is he seems to bail from the pocket early. At Wyoming this resulted in a ton of big plays as he's good outside the pocket. It just won't work in the NFL. He will get sacked before those plays will develop. Allen has the strongest arm and best build. That will always intrigue scouts. Sometimes it will do so to the extent he goes way higher than he should. I wouldn't be shocked if he is one of the first off the board or if he slides to the 20's. 

 

Ya, this here is something I noticed as well. It didn't help that he didn't have much of an OL in front of him or any real weapons to throw to but even when he has clean pockets he seems to get happy feet.

 

The key word with Allen is potential. Clearly he has the physical assets and seems to have a decent mind for the game. His success is gonna depend heavily on the type of coaches and system he ends up with. A lot of people in the scouting community see him in the same way they saw Wentz. We'll see if those comparisons hold up. 

 

And as you said, it wouldn't be surprising if he went top 5/top 10 or slid down toward the end of the first. Either way, at this point there is just way too much hype for him not to go somewhere in the first. 

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5 minutes ago, Wagon Circler said:

Josh Allen had an awful season. Does that mean he is awful? Maybe, maybe not. But it doesn't make him no.1.

Can't believe my boy Riley Ferguson isn't on the list.

Never heard of no.10.

 

Where's Ferguson out of? And wasn't there some hype on the NC State kid? Ryan Finley or something... or did he choose to go back to school? Admittedly I am a bit out of the draft loop at the moment. 

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17 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Your username is appropriate.

 

I'm not saying Allen is #1 or kiper is right on him by any means, but a "4th round pick at best" is just complete exaggeration or ignorance.

 

He is a first round pick on his physical attributes/arm alone for most.

 

If he makes it out of the top 15 I'd be surprised.

 

You can dislike him, think he's a project, whatever, all you want.

 

Saying he's a 4th rounder at best is complete hogwash though.

Maybe not 4th but he and Ryan Mallett are not to dissimilar.

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1 minute ago, CuddyDark said:

Maybe not 4th but he and Ryan Mallett are not to dissimilar.

 

I don't disagree.

I think he's a boom or bust.

His floor is pretty much Ryan mallet (that's a bad floor) and a few see him with a big Ben ceiling.

That's a pretty lofty comparison to throw at a guy, a Superbowl winning HoF lock QB.

I don't buy that being his ceiling, but you never know.

 

Bottom line is he could be a top10-15 pick, or a 2nd round pick after a big slide.

 

 

I was just saying that a guy calling him a "4th rounder at best" is just plain wrong.

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8 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Where's Ferguson out of? And wasn't there some hype on the NC State kid? Ryan Finley or something... or did he choose to go back to school? Admittedly I am a bit out of the draft loop at the moment. 

Originally signed on with Tennessee, didn't work out. Fell out of football, played D-2, then landed in Memphis and had some prolific seasons. I watched 4 Memphis games this year, I don't see him as an NFL QB. They run so much RPO  it's hard to evaluate him fairly. His arm strength is a ? Which was evident going against the wind in his bowl game against Iowa State. You could see balls tail and dive. Wasn't pretty. If he gets drafted it will be late or he will be a UFA.  

Edited by KzooMike
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