Drought will end: Taylor is here to stay.......for now

[BigPappy]

Same thing that was said last year was it not???? And what did he do???

 

Sorry he is not worth an 18M cap hit.

 

Now i know you have been around long enough to know that what a QB's worth has nothing to do with how much he gets paid. Elite QB's are making 25 Million + a year and your so - so to pretty good QB's are making around 14 - 20 million a year. Are they worth that much, I don't think so, but they are just good enough to manage games and not screw up to big so that's what there getting paid.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

Could have been anybody. After all - it is pure luck that he did that.

 

It wasn't pure luck that he did it.

 

However, to expect that same play to happen again the next game and on and on is foolishness.

 

If just over half of the turnover differential is luck - then what is responsible for the other "just under half" -

 

The point is that sustaining anything that requires over 50% luck is impossible on a long-term (beyond a few games) basis.

Edited October 24, 2017 by Wayne Arnold

[PolishDave]

 

It wasn't pure luck that he did it.

 

Wayne's world! Party time! Excellent!

[zow2]

Tyrod looked like Steve Young this weekend when compared to some of the awful QB play around the league this past Sunday.. We are fortunate to have him.

[yungmack]

He will stay until the offseason and only come back if he redoes his contract yet again.

If Beane tries that, TT's gone. There are at least 6 teams by my count that will eagerly pursue him, including one that may be a big surprise. Just look around the league and the collection of QBs starting for at least a third of the teams.

[Wayne Arnold]

What does that have to do with my point though? They are saying it is lucky from reading the conclusion on a year to year basis.

 

Does it mention that teams that make the playoffs and go to the super bowl generally have a good turnover differential?

 

Year to year. Or game to game. Or quarter to quarter. Etc. It's all dependent on over 50% luck.

 

Yes, teams that have good turnover differential win more. Obviously. That's not the point.

[Manther]

Maybe you forgot about that incredible Rex & Rob Ryan defense last year. I think they called it "bend but don't split your pants."

Hahaha

id imagine they would and could franchise tag Tyrod for one more season and he would take the opportunity to showcase himself. Much like Alex Smith this season

He is under contract next year...we can not opt out and then franchise him.

[billsfan60]

I haven't seen the all 22, but Tyrod still missed some wide open recievers. One in particular was a deep pass to Thompson. While he completed the pass, their was a reciever (Holmes maybe?) that had his man beaten and would've probably been a td. I'm good with Tyrod for now, but again he's missing big plays

The way I understand it, Tyrod has a history with Thompson and just maybe he had more confidence in completing the pass to him than Holmes.

[John from Riverside]

Pump the breaks chief. We were 4-2 last year as well then Taylor turned into guano.

Game.....why do you feel the need to crap in every thread...why?

[BillsFan130]

 

Year to year. Or game to game. Or quarter to quarter. Etc. It's all dependent on over 50% luck.

 

Yes, teams that have good turnover differential win more. Obviously. That's not the point.

I personally don't think it's all luck. Is there some? For sure.

 

But there is no fluke that good and great QBs like Brady or a rod or even Alex Smith don't turn the ball over consistently compared to QBs like Cutler or Bortles.

 

The common correlation there? Teams with good QBs who don't turn the ball over alot make the playoffs every year and teams with QBs who turn the ball over consistently don't make the playoffs

Edited October 24, 2017 by billsfan11

[BuffaloHokie13]

The way I understand it, Tyrod has a history with Thompson and just maybe he had more confidence in completing the pass to him than Holmes.

Thompson has practiced enough with Tyrod that he understands what Tyrod wants to do as plays develop. This allows him to make himself available more effectively as plays break down. I suspect the others will get better with this as time goes on, but it's already there with DT.

[John from Riverside]

Ahh yes the great passer who received a 10 million dollar reduction in salary.

Where in any of the above posts does it say that Tyrod is even a great passer?

 

Why do you continue to twist **** to fit your agenda

[NickelCity]

I think we have a special team here, but I too look at the schedule and see most as tight games. I'm not sure that's a recipe for more than 50/50 wins/losses, but I think playoffs are at least possible. Finally.

[Manther]

I actually think TT is safer running and sliding than he is in the pocket...seems this dude gets sacked hard a lot more than he gets hit upfield

I agree

[JM2009]

Game.....why do you feel the need to crap in every thread...why?

Could Game be Crusher re-incarnated?

Edited October 24, 2017 by JM2009

[billykaykay]

The way I understand it, Tyrod has a history with Thompson and just maybe he had more confidence in completing the pass to him than Holmes.

I don't want to hijack the thread but had a question & didn't want to start a thread for it. On the 44 yd pass to DT, he was the recipient of an illegal hit. What would be the call if, as a result of the illegal hit, DT then lost control going to the ground. Is it still a catch & a penalty? Or is it an incomplete pass & just the 15 yd penalty?

A similar situation happens when a DE jumps the snap & is zooming in on the QB & the OL holds him to protect the QB. This is called off setting penalties. It seems to me that the hold should be waved off as it was the direct result of the DL leaving early with a bead on the QB.

What do you guys think ?

[section122]

 

Especially when the example he cites is Tyrod missing a better option while completing a pass. Every QB misses those throws. The plays he misses more than anyone else are open receivers while he is running around not throwing it.

 

One of my favourite plays this week was the miss to Taiwan Jones in the endzone where Jones checked his route. That is a play that in previous years Tyrod would have missed while scampering and maybe getting the 1st down. But standing there and throwing was the RIGHT play. That is progress.

 

I agree. It looked like Taiwan slowed down for a split second too on that play. I really liked the designed runs showing up again in this game. I really don't like bootlegs where he rolls left as I don't know if he has completed one yet this year doing it. There is certainly some progress there in throwing to the middle, utilizing tes, going through progressions, etc...

 

I hope people watched the 9 teams in the league that didn't score an offensive td this week to point out all of the missed throws by those qbs. Or perhaps the 7 attempts by Trubisky. I had Tyrod about 20th best qb in the league coming into the year and he is moving up. I would be interested to see you do a mid-season update of your list that you had last season (offseason maybe?). I haven't listed them out yet myself but I think Tyrod is trending in the right direction so far this year.

[Scott7975]

 

 

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

 

Conclusion in case you don't want to spend the time reading it:

 

So after a few hundred words of statistics, we arrive at a whopping conclusion that just over half of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck. Thats huge, especially when you consider that (from earlier) seasonal turnover differential explains over 40% of seasonal winning percentage.

At first glance, this does seem very high to me but evidence for this magnitude is the extraordinary year-to-year variability in turnover differential, which you would expect if luck was a mega factor as my analysis suggests. While starting quarterbacks absolutely play a role in turnover differential (Tom Brady throws fewer picks than Chad Henne) and tend to be fairly constant from year-to-year, nevertheless the correlation between turnover differential last year and this year is only 0.086 which is not significant at the 5% level.

Ultimately in a 16-game season, theres just a whole lot of luck involved with winning football games and for all that commentators will talk about defensive schemes forcing turnovers this season, its just as important to be lucky as to be good.

I guess KC is one lucky team then. They have lead the league the last two years. Oakland won a lot of games last year. They were at the top last year. Who else at the top? Last season Atlanta was in top 5 with KC and Oakland and the Pats. Year before Carolina and the Pats. Year before Seattle and the Pats.

 

See any correlation there?

[section122]

I guess KC is one lucky team then. They have lead the league the last two years. Oakland won a lot of games last year. They were at the top last year. Who else at the top? Last season Atlanta was in top 5 with KC and Oakland and the Pats. Year before Carolina and the Pats. Year before Seattle and the Pats.

 

See any correlation there?

 

Yeah I think the nuance is being missed that although they are lucky to occur according to the study year to year they certainly have much to do with team success. It even acknowledges qb's not throwing ints as a good thing.

[billykaykay]

I haven't seen the all 22, but Tyrod still missed some wide open recievers. One in particular was a deep pass to Thompson. While he completed the pass, their was a reciever (Holmes maybe?) that had his man beaten and would've probably been a td. I'm good with Tyrod for now, but again he's missing big plays

With the 2-3 seconds a QB has, they all miss open receivers more often than we think.

[John from Riverside]

With the 2-3 seconds a QB has, they all miss open receivers more often than we think.

They really do...everybody gets so worked up about errant throws....ALL QBS THROW THEM....we are just so focused in on it because its OUR QB

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

I'm good with Taylor as long as Buffalo' Defense can maintain a 2-3 turnovers a game.

 

I'm not good with Taylor if it's straight up.

[Foreigner]

He is 19-16 as a starter on a non playoff team almost forever. If that is not good enough for some, so be it.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

He is 19-16 as a starter on a non playoff team almost forever. If that is not good enough for some, so be it.

breaking that down - roughly 9-7 doesn't get you in the playoffs 90% of the time

90% of us are starving for the playoffs and want to see a lock solid QB week in and week out.

[JM2009]

He is 19-16 as a starter on a non playoff team almost forever. If that is not good enough for some, so be it.

Sadly it is not for a few, yet ask them who did we have that could have been better, no answer.

[CardinalScotts]

breaking that down - roughly 9-7 doesn't get you in the playoffs 90% of the time

90% of us are starving for the playoffs and want to see a lock solid QB week in and week out.

last year was completely on the pathetic defense.....descent d we win 10. just descent

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

last year was completely on the pathetic defense.....descent d we win 10. just descent

the pathetic defense was all Rex who was here for 2 years.

[ALLEN1QB]

Considering our 2 #1's next year will not be in the top 15 we would have to trade away way to much to move up. I say use the picks we have to build a team and kick that can down the road.

[NickelCity]

Considering our 2 #1's next year will not be in the top 15 we would have to trade away way to much to move up. I say use the picks we have to build a team and kick that can down the road.

 

I don't think we can afford to keep kicking the can. I'm not a Tyrod hater but realistically we're going to have to upgrade the QB position (or try to) at some point. I don't see an issue with a top round QB sitting on our bench.

[BigBuff423]

Im good with Tyrod for now IF hes going to run. The way he played Sunday, is how he needs to play. Forget trying to make him a drop back passer. Let him do what he does. If Tyrod is going to use his legs, Im good. If hes going to try and stay in the pocket and drop back...Im not

 

+1....this is truth. Tyrod needs to be who he is, despite the fact that I do NOT believe him to be a quality NFL QB, he has to stay true to who he is, because what little he can do - is done by his athleticism. So, no matter what I still want the Bills to Draft a QB in 1st or 2nd round and make him the future QB for the Bills, but for this year, unless he falls apart I can understand staying with Tyrod. Not that I don't think Peterman can be a good QB - but keeping Tyrod for the rest of the year at this point - barring the wheels coming off - is understandable and probably helps the team the most.

[John from Riverside]

Considering our 2 #1's next year will not be in the top 15 we would have to trade away way to much to move up. I say use the picks we have to build a team and kick that can down the road.

It quite possibly could take both those ones AND a future high pick to get into the QB territory

 

Even though I am a TT fan....I would consider this because we have a lot of other high picks in the draft to pick up other need spots

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Just a reminder

 

There will be close a lot of teams looking for a QB besides Buffalo.

 

Browns, Giants, Chargers, Jets, SF, AZ, Houston, Steelers.

 

Possible teams also looking Saints (Drew aint gettany younger), Ravens, Skins if Kirk moves on.

A top QB in the draft wont come cheap.

[BillsFan130]

Just a reminder

 

There will be close a lot of teams looking for a QB besides Buffalo.

 

Browns, Giants, Chargers, Jets, SF, AZ, Houston, Steelers.

 

Possible teams also looking Saints (Drew aint gettany younger), Ravens, Skins if Kirk moves on.

A top QB in the draft wont come cheap.

Houston? They have Deshaun Watson though.

 

But ya I get your overall point, there will be a lot of teams that will be looking for a QB next off season

[GunnerBill]

Houston? They have Deshaun Watson though.

 

But ya I get your overall point, there will be a lot of teams that will be looking for a QB next off season

Yea. Houston has their QB.

[nedboy7]

This team has heart. They are 4-2. On to the next game. I am proud of this team. Haters can go on hating whoever they want. It's irrelevant.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Houston? They have Deshaun Watson though.

 

But ya I get your overall point, there will be a lot of teams that will be looking for a QB next off season

 

....despite the FINAL collegiate QB market availability being a LONG way off, may want to evaluate who has similar "6 picks in the first 3 rounds" as Buffalo's draft capital.....would be interesting...........

[Real McClappy]

 

It wasn't pure luck that he did it.

 

However, to expect that same play to happen again the next game and on and on is foolishness.

 

The point is that sustaining anything that requires over 50% luck is impossible on a long-term (beyond a few games) basis.

Charles Tillman 100% disagrees.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

for those keeping a close eye on the QB prospects. who is really standing out where you would say, we have to have that guy? I also agree with those about how many teams will be looking hard to snag one in the first round? could there be a diamond in the rough in later rounds? or will 2019 be the year?

 

 

so many questions with answers that remain to be seen.

 

 

it's really too early to tell, me thinks.

[SoTier]

Im good with Tyrod for now IF hes going to run. The way he played Sunday, is how he needs to play. Forget trying to make him a drop back passer. Let him do what he does. If Tyrod is going to use his legs, Im good. If hes going to try and stay in the pocket and drop back...Im not

 

I liked what Tyrod did on Sunday ... he was looking to pass first, but he didn't look a gift horse in the mouth when TB game him one. I don't think the Bills are ever going to be a team under the current regime where the QB regularly puts up 300 passing yards simply because they aren't likely to throw a lot of passes and they aren't built to stretch the field no matter who their QB is. The fools who use that as a measuring stick need to face reality.

 

To the OP, I think that Tyrod is probably the best the Bills will be able to do at QB for a couple of years at least. Even if they draft a QB in the first round in 2018 -- which I will be surprised if they don't -- it's highly unlikely that he'll be a better QB as a rookie than Taylor is now -- and, as we've seen with Losman and Manuel, he just might be another first round bust.

 

Moreover, I think the chances of the Bills finding an elite QB -- an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees -- in the draft are between slim and none. First, they're rare. Most likely, even if the Bills found a keeper QB, he'd be more like a Flacco,Dalton, Tannehill, Cousins, Rivers than Rodgers, Brady or Brees. Second, the kind of football being played by most colleges today make finding good pro QBs even harder than it used to be ... and it wasn't all that easy given that almost 50% of first round QBs were disappointments or flat out busts.

 

There was a discussion this morning on Good Morning Football (us retirees can get to watch all the good stuff on daytime tv) about should Washington pay Kirk Cousins or should they take a chance on drafting a QB. The consensus was that a good proven QB on your roster tops an unknown quantity ... especially as some of the collegiate QBs projected to go high in the draft have fallen flat on their faces ... which is what happens just about every year.

[Foxx]

 

... There was a discussion this morning on Good Morning Football (us retirees can get to watch all the good stuff on daytime tv) about should Washington pay Kirk Cousins or should they take a chance on drafting a QB. The consensus was that a good proven QB on your roster tops an unknown quantity ... especially as some of the collegiate QBs projected to go high in the draft have fallen flat on their faces ... which is what happens just about every year.

yeah... what is year 3 under the franchise tag for QB's? something like 44mm?

Edited October 24, 2017 by Foxx