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RD 3, Pick #69: WR TJ Graham - NC State


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ill take the 'hopeful, but question the pick until graham shows me something' approach. which by the way may not be this year as nix/gailey don't tend to play offensive rookies much - look at spiller who was picked #9. i won't fall in love with the pick just to avoid being called a troll.

 

to all those posters who reflexive have blind trust in gailey/nix/bills management and automatically criticize posters who question this pick - there are veteran posters on this board who have correctly disagreed with bills management on past picks (see maybin, mckelvin, mccargo) - so i wouldn't throw the 'troll' label around too loosely

 

and lastly, no has brought up that perhaps nix was suckered into trading up for this guy. there are rumors that someone was interested in taking graham before the bills 3rd rounder, forcing nix to trade a 7th. but just as nix spread the rumor that glenn wasn't a LOT to cause him the drop, some other team out there may be laughing how they got the bills to trade away a pick by dropping misinformation.

Suckered in to giving up one of the two 7th round picks we have? Really?

Edited by nucci
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Looking at the interview on BB.com with Buddy and Chan, it seems like TJ was really "Chan's guy." Also hilarious when they ask Buddy if he considered trading up in the 2nd, and he goes something like "Well we did it in the third, gave up a 7th rounder...we're riverboat gamblers!"

Edited by Jack Straw
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I just think that a missing element to our passing game was not a tall possession-type receiver (we have a few of those), but rather the Evans factor of being able to stretch the field with speed.

 

From all accounts this was the fastest receiver with hands, a bit raw but Gailey knows that safeties were sitting on our routes because we did not have a true deep threat to stretch the field in the vertical. Do I think he panicked a bit to grab him....maybe, but it was a key element missing from his offense and with Chan taking the backseat to a lot of defensive personnel upgrades the last 2 years, Buddy just made sure he got his man. I am sure they received good intel that another team was going to "reach" for the kid later in that round before they got to the fourth. I am alright with this pick.

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I just think that a missing element to our passing game was not a tall possession-type receiver (we have a few of those), but rather the Evans factor of being able to stretch the field with speed.

 

From all accounts this was the fastest receiver with hands, a bit raw but Gailey knows that safeties were sitting on our routes because we did not have a true deep threat to stretch the field in the vertical. Do I think he panicked a bit to grab him....maybe, but it was a key element missing from his offense and with Chan taking the backseat to a lot of defensive personnel upgrades the last 2 years, Buddy just made sure he got his man. I am sure they received good intel that another team was going to "reach" for the kid later in that round before they got to the fourth. I am alright with this pick.

 

 

I agree with your points. The Bills need a sped receiver and one that Chan is comfortable with. Lee Evans was never "that guy" for Chan. I also give Gailey a lot of credit. He has taken a bunch of no-name receivers and has made them very effective. The Bills can move the ball and score points. If the D plays up to its potential this team will take a major step forward.

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I just think that a missing element to our passing game was not a tall possession-type receiver (we have a few of those), but rather the Evans factor of being able to stretch the field with speed.

 

From all accounts this was the fastest receiver with hands, a bit raw but Gailey knows that safeties were sitting on our routes because we did not have a true deep threat to stretch the field in the vertical. Do I think he panicked a bit to grab him....maybe, but it was a key element missing from his offense and with Chan taking the backseat to a lot of defensive personnel upgrades the last 2 years, Buddy just made sure he got his man. I am sure they received good intel that another team was going to "reach" for the kid later in that round before they got to the fourth. I am alright with this pick.

Exactly. Not knowing anything about him before we drafted him, I just assumed he would be the Roscoe guy, but now it is pretty clear he will be the Evans guy. I have been saying all along that all we need out of our #2 is to be a THREAT. He doesn't have to dominate. He just has to keep defenses honest and stretch the field. That is what Meachem was going to do which is why they went after him so hard. I would have loved Blackmon or Floyd, but that's because those two could be stars. But if you're not going for that level player, all the #2 needs to do is be a viable option out of 5 possible options on any given play, stretch the field, and make teams pay if they forget about him.

 

Another funny thing to me is that people are all calling Graham a little guy and a smurf and Roscoe, etc. Graham is 5'11" and change and 188 pounds. Stephon Gilmore, whom everyone calls "a big corner", and exactly the guy who would be playing against Graham, is 6'0" 190.

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I don't care for the pick, but as your lawyer I advise you not to judge WR's on just numbers because they're so dependent on the rest of the offense doing its job well.

 

Yeah, you're probably right.

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funny you should mention steve smith; it seems like graham compares to him from a size standpoint.

Yeah. Not quite the same frame, though.

 

Smith was more the fireplug, while Graham looks more Lee Evan-ish. Hopefully he can grow into a Smith-like body...

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Yeah. Not quite the same frame, though.

 

Smith was more the fireplug, while Graham looks more Lee Evan-ish. Hopefully he can grow into a Smith-like body...

 

I'm trying to think back on Steve Smith's development. When he was a pro-bowl returner as a rookie, I feel like he wasn't as built as he later became. A couple of off-seasons in the NFL did the trick.

 

Maybe same for Graham.

 

Regardless, the comparisons to Roscoe are unfounded. Graham looks like he has the body frame to be a legit outside receiver.

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I'm not even going to read through 21 pages because I'm sure 95% of it is the same old schitt -- since Kiper, McShay, and Mayock didn't have him going that high, it must be a reach and horrible pick. Well, I watched a bit of Graham, being a Tar Heel fan and seeing a lot of ACC games, and after four weeks this season it looked like he was going to shatter every record known to man. Graham is NOT a smurf, or a waterbug...he's an absolute speed demon who will stretch the field. I don't know the details as to why his production tapered off later, but he turned it on again in their bowl game.

 

If Chan wanted this guy for the offense, it's a good thing. His presence WILL open up the secondary. He's also not the prototypical "track guy" who can't catch. He has hands.

 

And oh by the way, the nfl.com profile did indicate he "could be selected as high as the 3rd round."

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I've read reports that TJ Graham's 4.41 time reported at the combine is inaccurate. It was Graham's slower time. He ran a 4.41 and a 4.29, which gives him a 4.35 (fastest combine WR time this year was 4.36). These reports jive with Graham's training and prep -- he expected to run a sub 4.3 time. It also makes picking him in the 3rd round much more sensible. The Bills just did their homework on his speed.

 

What's interesting there is not the 0.06 second correction so much as the 4.29 low. That's elite NFL speed, the sort that you need to burn NFL corners. Only a handful of NFL receivers have that sort of speed. Graham's got it, and now the Bills do too.

 

I believe we'll also be one of two teams with multiple players on offense with sub 4.3 speed, the Raiders being the other.

 

We got the fastest WR in the draft folks. :thumbsup:

Edited by Awwufelloff
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Just a joke. I don't know anything about this guy...

For future reference, jokes are usually funnier if they contain some sort of relevance to the subject matter at hand.

 

Just sayin'...

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Figured I would bring this up...not really relevant to TJ's football skills--but TJ's dad is Trevor Graham the Track Coach of BALCO fame. TJ was raised to be a sprinter and has been around athletes like Marion Jones, Tim Montgomery, etc. all his life. Trevor was a world class sprinter from Jamaica. Trevor has done his best to shield TJ from the scandals which have enveloped him.

 

There is really no point here. I know Trevor a bit from a past life -- and while I don't agree at all with his cheating and supplying athletes with PEDs -- Trevor has helped raise a good kid in TJ. TJ has never taken talent for granted even though he was blessed and easily could have accomplished things like a 100M/200m State championship without working hard. TJ works with his dad almost every day now and after having a distant relationship for a while the two now are closer than they have ever been. Dad has been humbled a bit by his experiences the last decade and TJ will work like heck to succeed--that's the biggest thing father gave son.

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I've read reports that TJ Graham's 4.41 time reported at the combine is inaccurate. It was Graham's slower time. He ran a 4.41 and a 4.29, which gives him a 4.35 (fastest combine WR time this year was 4.36). These reports jive with Graham's training and prep -- he expected to run a sub 4.3 time. It also makes picking him in the 3rd round much more sensible. The Bills just did their homework on his speed.

 

What's interesting there is not the 0.06 second correction so much as the 4.29 low. That's elite NFL speed, the sort that you need to burn NFL corners. Only a handful of NFL receivers have that sort of speed. Graham's got it, and now the Bills do too.

 

I believe we'll also be one of two teams with multiple players on offense with sub 4.3 speed, the Raiders being the other.

 

We got the fastest WR in the draft folks. :thumbsup:

 

I thought the same thing, they were talking about Graham's speed and while 4.41 is not slow it would not make Graham an outlier. Numbers in the low 4.3s do. I know that doesn't translate directly into football skill but if you are drafting a pure speed-- numbers to the sideline guy-- it is helpful is he is a true burner

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Actually I'm basing my opinion of Graham mostly on his highlights which don't really impress me. Then you throw in the trade up aspect and that dampens it for me a bit more.

 

Im not condemning the pick… just not enthused.

 

Love the Brooks pick though!

 

 

Yup, there was nothing in the highlights that popped out. But who knows, the kid played big in a big bowl game and then had a stellar Senior Bowl week.

 

I moved these quotes from the Brooks thread to stay on topic...

 

That being said, the main thing to focus on when watching tape of Graham is how often he gets by the defense. Even when the Qb doesn't hit him, he is still getting past the 2nd and 3rd levels, and is a guy that runs HARD upfield. Defenses MUST respect this, and the moment they don't, they will pay dearly.

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I still think that Graham was a bad pick, especially after re-watching the Nix/Gailey day 2 press conference. Just about every positive thing they say is a new way of restating, "he's fast," and they openly acknowledge a few question marks. Based on their own description, Graham strikes me as a smaller, weaker Lee Evans with worse hands. If Evans was allegedly a bad fit for Gailey's offense, it's hard for me to imagine how Graham will be a good fit, but then again, Gailey does like the guy. Personally, I think that Nix and especially Gailey fell in love with Graham's speed on tape and talked themselves into overlooking everything else about him. Graham will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong, but he's my pick for most likely to bust out of this draft class.

 

Keep in mind also that if you go back to Nix's off-season quotes about the kinds of players they wanted to acquire, Williams and Anderson very much fit the mold of pass-rushers he was talking about. Cordy Glenn very much fits the mold of the kind of LT he's talked up. Stephon Gilmore fits the profile of the kind of CB he wants. But as for WR, his comments were mostly about getting a guy who's big *and* fast, basically a guy to win jump balls. Graham doesn't come close to filling that bill. Again, his comp is probably closer to Lee Evans than any other receiver we've had under Nix/Gailey, except Evans himself. I definitely get the vibe that Gailey is much more into Graham as a prospect than Nix is.

 

Having said all that, Graham still could easily be an upgrade over Donald Jones or David Clowney or Brad Smith or Derek Hagan or whoever's spot he'd be taking in spread sets, so even if I'm right, it's not necessarily a wasted pick.

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Evans might have been a bad fit for many different reasons besides what seems apparent. I would have you consider that he might have been burned out from being on a losing team with no hope for such a long time. He was no longer thrilled to risk his health for a pass that ended in the loss column. we got a new guy with a new attitude and a wiser coaching staff ( i hope) that realizes a young Lee Evans is not a bad thing at all.

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I moved these quotes from the Brooks thread to stay on topic...

 

That being said, the main thing to focus on when watching tape of Graham is how often he gets by the defense. Even when the Qb doesn't hit him, he is still getting past the 2nd and 3rd levels, and is a guy that runs HARD upfield. Defenses MUST respect this, and the moment they don't, they will pay dearly.

I suspect that Graham's not as bad a pick as everyone might think. I'm just having a hard time getting enthused about the pick, in contrast to my feelings about most of their other selections.

 

Yeah, it should & more than a bit IMO. He's got to fix that especially if he's involved in the PR unit.

FWIW, only 3 of those fumbles were lost. Naturally fumbles lost is based on luck and is less important than the actual number of fumbles.

 

I still think that Graham was a bad pick, especially after re-watching the Nix/Gailey day 2 press conference. Just about every positive thing they say is a new way of restating, "he's fast," and they openly acknowledge a few question marks. Based on their own description, Graham strikes me as a smaller, weaker Lee Evans with worse hands. If Evans was allegedly a bad fit for Gailey's offense, it's hard for me to imagine how Graham will be a good fit, but then again, Gailey does like the guy. Personally, I think that Nix and especially Gailey fell in love with Graham's speed on tape and talked themselves into overlooking everything else about him. Graham will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong, but he's my pick for most likely to bust out of this draft class.

 

Keep in mind also that if you go back to Nix's off-season quotes about the kinds of players they wanted to acquire, Williams and Anderson very much fit the mold of pass-rushers he was talking about. Cordy Glenn very much fits the mold of the kind of LT he's talked up. Stephon Gilmore fits the profile of the kind of CB he wants. But as for WR, his comments were mostly about getting a guy who's big *and* fast, basically a guy to win jump balls. Graham doesn't come close to filling that bill. Again, his comp is probably closer to Lee Evans than any other receiver we've had under Nix/Gailey, except Evans himself. I definitely get the vibe that Gailey is much more into Graham as a prospect than Nix is.

 

Having said all that, Graham still could easily be an upgrade over Donald Jones or David Clowney or Brad Smith or Derek Hagan or whoever's spot he'd be taking in spread sets, so even if I'm right, it's not necessarily a wasted pick.

The one main apparent difference between Evans and Graham is that Graham seems to have much better run-after-the-catch ability than Lee.

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We have been over this ad nauseum here and I don't want to revisit the arguments, but I heard from reliable sources that trading Evans was not NIx's or Gailey's original idea. There is no reason to believe he wasnt a fit in the offense. I do believe that Nix and Gailey preferred a big, fast #2 opposite Stevie but fast was far more important than big. They needed to stretch the field and make teams pay for taking away our short passing lanes.

 

I thinks it's almost inarguable once they traded up to get an Evans clone to play outside opposite SJ.

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I suspect that Graham's not as bad a pick as everyone might think. I'm just having a hard time getting enthused about the pick, in contrast to my feelings about most of their other selections.

 

 

FWIW, only 3 of those fumbles were lost. Naturally fumbles lost is based on luck and is less important than the actual number of fumbles.

 

 

The one main apparent difference between Evans and Graham is that Graham seems to have much better run-after-the-catch ability than Lee.

I think the last note is the big difference in why lee was expendable to Chan while tj was a target. Being a bit more physical, willing in traffic etc.... We never saw a ton of that from lee. Never got if it was ability or desire or scheme....

 

He did it some, just not with regularity

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I suspect that Graham's not as bad a pick as everyone might think. I'm just having a hard time getting enthused about the pick, in contrast to my feelings about most of their other selections.

Yeah, I hear you. He seems like the least polished of the top 5 picks (from a route running, WR experience level). Hopefully he'll be easy to coach up and can find ways to get off the line against press coverage. His small hands/fumbling experience are a worry as well.

 

Still, his return skills are something that would be valuable if Chan decides to let him have some reps there. That 103-yard kickoff return video I posted is electric...

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What T.J. Graham brings to the table is options. Options that benefit the offense because he's an instant deep threat and will keep opposing secondaries from cheating up. If you re-watch any of the film from the second half of last year, secondaries had absolutely no respect for us deep and they cheated up like crazy. This left precious little room and it part of the reason that Fitz threw so many picks.

 

The Bills have legitimate threats at RB and they should be an even better running team this year. They certianly have the size necessary to absolutely maul opposing D lines. I'd anticipate you'll see Graham and Stevie in on a fair amount of bubble screens but where he'll make his money is on play action. The slightest hesitation or pause by a DB due to play action and Graham is going to have 5 steps on them.

 

Whether or not Fitz can actually hit him is another story........

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I still think that Graham was a bad pick, especially after re-watching the Nix/Gailey day 2 press conference. Just about every positive thing they say is a new way of restating, "he's fast," and they openly acknowledge a few question marks. Based on their own description, Graham strikes me as a smaller, weaker Lee Evans with worse hands. If Evans was allegedly a bad fit for Gailey's offense, it's hard for me to imagine how Graham will be a good fit, but then again, Gailey does like the guy. Personally, I think that Nix and especially Gailey fell in love with Graham's speed on tape and talked themselves into overlooking everything else about him. Graham will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong, but he's my pick for most likely to bust out of this draft class.

 

Keep in mind also that if you go back to Nix's off-season quotes about the kinds of players they wanted to acquire, Williams and Anderson very much fit the mold of pass-rushers he was talking about. Cordy Glenn very much fits the mold of the kind of LT he's talked up. Stephon Gilmore fits the profile of the kind of CB he wants. But as for WR, his comments were mostly about getting a guy who's big *and* fast, basically a guy to win jump balls. Graham doesn't come close to filling that bill. Again, his comp is probably closer to Lee Evans than any other receiver we've had under Nix/Gailey, except Evans himself. I definitely get the vibe that Gailey is much more into Graham as a prospect than Nix is.

 

Having said all that, Graham still could easily be an upgrade over Donald Jones or David Clowney or Brad Smith or Derek Hagan or whoever's spot he'd be taking in spread sets, so even if I'm right, it's not necessarily a wasted pick.

The deal with a deep threat is that it really has to be a threat. There was a huge difference between Bob Hayes and Dwight Stone "Hands", though both were world class sprinters. Last year's passing attack featured getting the ball out of Fitzpatrick's hand in a heartbeat or less. Given that, even if Graham can catch, how often are they going to 7 step, pat the ball and launch a cruise missile down the hashes anyway?

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The more I read and hear about the pick, the more it seems that Buddy and Chan definitely got "their guy." Some fans are upset because they didn't get "their guy." I remember a lot of clamoring to trade up for Randle (ironic to note that doing so would probably have cost one of the picks that got us Bradham, Brooks, Sanders, and Carder). Anyways, TJ was the guy they were targeting in the 3rd round and they got him.

 

From what I've read/heard, they dig his speed, specifically as it relates to running after the catch. Don't expect this guy to only catch 50 yard throws. Anyways, I will be waiting to judge the pick until I actually see him play in the offense. Time will tell if Buddy or the pundits had the right grade on this guy. But right now, for me its enough that TJ was their man and they got him.

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The more I read and hear about the pick, the more it seems that Buddy and Chan definitely got "their guy." Some fans are upset because they didn't get "their guy." I remember a lot of clamoring to trade up for Randle (ironic to note that doing so would probably have cost one of the picks that got us Bradham, Brooks, Sanders, and Carder). Anyways, TJ was the guy they were targeting in the 3rd round and they got him.

 

From what I've read/heard, they dig his speed, specifically as it relates to running after the catch. Don't expect this guy to only catch 50 yard throws. Anyways, I will be waiting to judge the pick until I actually see him play in the offense. Time will tell if Buddy or the pundits had the right grade on this guy. But right now, for me its enough that TJ was their man and they got him.

To me their "guy" is good kid, great work ethic, hard worker, team guy, captain type, self-starter, etc.

 

The things you mentioned, while I agree they like that and want that, when I heard them mention it it seemed to be more of "he does a little of this and a little of that" and not that he is dynamic after the catch. They did very much like that he immediately turned upfield and went north and south and didnt run out of bounds though.

Edited by Kelly the Dog
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I actually thought his highlights were impressive. He got by his man routinely. Saw 3 pass interence penalties in 3 games where his man had to grab him or he wouldve had a TD. His 85 yard TD against Cincy was Victor Cruz-like against the Jets. He didn't look that strong but also didn't shy away from contact either. Also not as small as I thought he'd be. If he gains a little strength, guy could be a dynamic receiver.

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I know we keep hearing lee or roscoe as the benchmarks but (atleast on field) the comparison to a player in the league is kind of santonio Holmes maybe? Definitely would need a lot of polish, but a little undersized, can play outside, explosive deep but can work underneath. I haven't see a ton of him yet though, so maybe that's a bad broad strokes comparison.

 

Obviously he would need to work hard to fulfill a comparison like that. One big perk being that he isn't an ***.

 

Maybe even a mike Wallace? Both pittsburgh picks that maybe whaley had ties to scouting? Just thinking outloud on the skillset and where it came from (not the big guy you hear nix talk about)

Edited by NoSaint
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I know we keep hearing lee or roscoe as the benchmarks but (atleast on field) the comparison to a player in the league is kind of santonio Holmes maybe? Definitely would need a lot of polish, but a little undersized, can play outside, explosive deep but can work underneath. I haven't see a ton of him yet though, so maybe that's a bad broad strokes comparison.

 

Obviously he would need to work hard to fulfill a comparison like that. One big perk being that he isn't an ***.

 

Maybe even a mike Wallace? Both pittsburgh picks that maybe whaley had ties to scouting? Just thinking outloud on the skillset and where it came from (not the big guy you hear nix talk about)

Was thinking Wallace or Denarious Moore, obviously that's hopeful, but skillset and size seem comparable.

Edited by Carey Bender
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He's not really what I was hoping for in a WR in this draft. I wanted Floyd. I still think we need the big guy that go up in a crowd and come down with the football. But, it looks we aren't going to have that this year.

 

But I hope he turns out to be great!!

 

Go BILLS !!!

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