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Update: Free Agent RB's Hitting the Market


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Just now, FireChans said:

Disagree. With how top heavy our roster is and will be going forward with Josh and co’s big contracts, getting hidden gems like a Christian Benford or a Dane Jackson who are spot starters at worst is infinitely more valuable than an even league average running back in the 6th or 7th round. 
 

Christian Benford, currently, probably has a higher trade value than most RB’s in the league. Easily. 
 

And sure, you aren’t likely to always find those guys, but a league average starter at an important position will always be more important than a league average starter at RB.

 

RB’s are not just dime a dozen because you can find them all over the draft. They are a dime a dozen because there’s about 15 guys available who can produce every year and will work for pennies on the dollar. How many CB’s or DE’s get picked up off the street and randomly produce at a high level? Not many. How many running backs have a production explosion? All the time. 
 

Like I said, Damien had 15 TD’s and got $1.7M. If Benford got cut tomorrow, he’s probably get $8M+ a season. I know what position I’d invest in when drafting. 

 

That's great if you can find Christian Benford with every 6th Round Pick. 

 

But for every Christian Benford there's a Marquez Stevenson, Luke Tenuta, Rachad Wildgoose, Jaquan Johnson, or Tanner Vallejo.

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1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

That's great if you can find Christian Benford with every 6th Round Pick. 

 

But for every Christian Benford there's a Marquez Stevenson, Luke Tenuta, Rachad Wildgoose, Jaquan Johnson, or Tanner Vallejo.

I addressed that. Third paragraph. 
 

For every Isaiah Pacheco, there’s a Kevin Harris, Tyler Badie, Keontay Ingram, Trestan Ebner, Brittaij Brown, or Zander Hovarth. 
 

Hell, this Ty Johnson cat everyone seems to love all of the sudden was a 6th rounder for the Lions. Was he a good pick for them? Was the value there? On his third team in 4 years and has never had more than ~60 carries. 
 

Of course not.

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Gus Edwards ran 4.52 at 238 lbs...

that's impressive speed for a guy that size. I imagine he would not be very expensive with all those backs available. I don't know too much about him or his fit with the Bills, but if they need a big battering ram who could be a breakaway threat in the 2nd level..... 

He's not quite as big as Henry, ~10lbs lighter, but is a little faster and probably a lot cheaper. I don't think Henry will be nearly as cheap as some seem to think.

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7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I addressed that. Third paragraph. 
 

For every Isaiah Pacheco, there’s a Kevin Harris, Tyler Badie, Keontay Ingram, Trestan Ebner, Brittaij Brown, or Zander Hovarth. 
 

Hell, this Ty Johnson cat everyone seems to love all of the sudden was a 6th rounder for the Lions. Was he a good pick for them? Was the value there? On his third team in 4 years and has never had more than ~60 carries. 
 

Of course not.

At positions like running back and wide receiver there are plenty of people who could develop into serviceable NFL players in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted free agents

 

It's a matter of numbers

 

30 years ago.. there were 28 draft eligible wide receivers in a draft

 

Now in 2023..  there are 50 draftable wide receivers with grades

 

And all 50 are not getting drafted..  that means you're getting an NFL draftable player at wide receiver undrafted

 

Same goes for running back... The position is so devalued that talent gets pushed down the board

 

And you wind up with NFL running backs in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted all the time

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11 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Gus Edwards ran 4.52 at 238 lbs...

that's impressive speed for a guy that size. I imagine he would not be very expensive with all those backs available. I don't know too much about him or his fit with the Bills, but if they need a big battering ram who could be a breakaway threat in the 2nd level..... 

He's not quite as big as Henry, ~10lbs lighter, but is a little faster and probably a lot cheaper. I don't think Henry will be nearly as cheap as some seem to think.

 

He will not.

 

Yes, there will be some at the bottom of the list that will come cheap once the musical chairs stop and they are left still looking for a job.

 

But the guys at the top of the list - Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard - those guys are going to get paid to be Starters on other teams. Will it be the money RB's made 5-10 years ago? No. But it won't be "cheap" either.

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27 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

At positions like running back and wide receiver there are plenty of people who could develop into serviceable NFL players in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted free agents

 

It's a matter of numbers

 

30 years ago.. there were 28 draft eligible wide receivers in a draft

 

Now in 2023..  there are 50 draftable wide receivers with grades

 

And all 50 are not getting drafted..  that means you're getting an NFL draftable player at wide receiver undrafted

 

Same goes for running back... The position is so devalued that talent gets pushed down the board

 

And you wind up with NFL running backs in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted all the time

And those guys aren’t getting paid. That’s the whole point.


Why draft an RB in the 6th round who MIGHT be modestly productive (and more likely not be NFL caliber), when you can sign a PRODUCTIVE 5th year RB who gets paid very little and has proven to be NFL quality?


What you guys seem to not be grasping is that it used to be “don’t draft an RB high, they aren’t worth that.” That was the right line of thinking but it didn’t go far enough.

 

The reality is, “why draft them at all when I can pay a dude who put up 15 rushing TD’s $1.7M and use the draft pick on a more valuable position?”

 

Like I said, everyone seems to like this Ty Johnson dude. He’s gonna cost us what? $1Mish? He’s gonna probably have a better career than 90% of the RB’s drafted after round 5, right? Why would we waste a draft pick there at all?

 

WR’s may need some grooming before being ready, like a Shakir. Buts that a position worth investing that time in. You should literally only draft an RB if you don’t have one on the roster. We don’t need to draft a James Cook replacement until he walks in FA. Find the next Latty Murray and Ty Johnson and Damien Williams and pay them no money.

Edited by FireChans
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5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I think we are all set. But amazing to think a guy like Ekeler could be had on a cheap 1-year deal! He would be so good for us.

Ekeler is washed that dude ran completely out of gas last season

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11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

And those guys aren’t getting paid. That’s the whole point.


Why draft an RB in the 6th round who MIGHT be modestly productive (and more likely not be NFL caliber), when you can sign a PRODUCTIVE 5th year RB who gets paid very little and has proven to be NFL quality?


What you guys seem to not be grasping is that it used to be “don’t draft an RB high, they aren’t worth that.” That was the right line of thinking but it didn’t go far enough.

 

The reality is, “why draft them at all when I can pay a dude who put up 15 rushing TD’s $1.7M and use the draft pick on a more valuable position?”

 

Like I said, everyone seems to like this Ty Johnson dude. He’s gonna cost us what? $1Mish? He’s gonna probably have a better career than 90% of the RB’s drafted after round 5, right? Why would we waste a draft pick there at all?

 

WR’s may need some grooming before being ready, like a Shakir. Buts that a position worth investing that time in. You should literally only draft an RB if you don’t have one on the roster. We don’t need to draft a James Cook replacement until he walks in FA. Find the next Latty Murray and Ty Johnson and Damien Williams and pay them no money.

You could never find me saying once that we need to draft a running back in the first round or pay one lots of money

 

Never not once

 

And I do think ty Johnson is a very quality NFL change of pace back... The problem with him.. is that he runs too hard for his size

 

Like Ryan Matthews the running back from Fresno State who went top 15 ... 15 years ago

 

The dude had all the talent in the world.. but at 5'11 220.. he ran like he was 6'2 240

 

Very productive every time he played but couldn't stay healthy

 

I played running back in college so I have a good knack for them and I really do enjoy the position... I actually like ty Johnson a good amount.. I liked it when we signed him and I liked how he fit into what we do

 

But man.. he probably only has 2 years left the way he runs even as a backup... He's way too small to run as hard as he does

 

Which is why he shook himself up trying to deliver a blow

 

I certainly would resign him for one year.. but we need to find a red shirt Junior who came out with very few touches and he's 225 and has gas

 

And you can only run him hard for three or four years... 

 

There's a lot of talent at the running back position in the NFL.. a lot of guys can get you a thousand yards if they got the touches

 

Very few will give you 10 years like Adrian Peterson or gore ... Guys like ty Johnson and Pancheco on the chiefs... They are talented but I can tell they'll be ran into the ground after a contract

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

but we need to find a red shirt Junior who came out with very few touches and he's 225 and has gas

Why?

 

I feel like you’re not understanding what I’m saying. 
 

Why would you draft an RB in the sixth round who will likely suck, and probably has a 10-20% chance to be a JAG at the NFL level over signing an Antonio Gibson-level FA who has rushed for 1k yards in the NFL at one point on a 1 year $1.5M deal? What is the benefit?

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26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why?

 

I feel like you’re not understanding what I’m saying. 
 

Why would you draft an RB in the sixth round who will likely suck, and probably has a 10-20% chance to be a JAG at the NFL level over signing an Antonio Gibson-level FA who has rushed for 1k yards in the NFL at one point on a 1 year $1.5M deal? What is the benefit?

Because guys like that are stopgaps

 

The NFL has a shortage of lineman.. but you're still better off drafting a 22-year-old kid and developing him into your system with professional coaches

 

Then trying to sign a guy that a team didn't resign in a league with a shortage of lineman... Sure, not getting a contract from your old team can give you a kick in the ass to improve

 

But John feliciano is only improving so much... Darryl Williams is only improving so much

 

Both gave us a year of really good football... Then reverted back to what they always were

 

You're much better drafting O Cyrus Torrence and developing him over three or four years in your system in the Long haul... You're getting more potential and upside

 

The same thing is true with running backs... That sixth round pick has alot of talent... He would probably be a top four round pick 20 years ago... A running back is also never faster than he is out the gate... You only lose speed with miles

 

So you can get four cheap years out of a six round pick who's good... That you scouted to fit your system

 

Compared to always trying to find a guy in the pro personnel department year after year and reloading it

 

Getting a seasoned veteran will give you a slightly higher floor... But you're also going to be replacing him a lot if he's your change of pace back... You're going to be having one year contracts and different running backs all the time

 

Compared to drafting a cat in the sixth round developing him in your scheme... And getting talent and continuity for 4 years

 

I certainly don't want a running back in the first or second round ... But again somebody like ty Johnson who I like has one or two years

 

You can draft that same talent in the fifth round and have him for four.. he just needs to get up to speed which might take half a season

 

We Carry Three running backs... cook, Ty, 6th round rookie... Is a solid backfield for me

 

It has a floor with potential...

 

Any running back who really wants to have playing time is not signing here anyways because we have James Cook

 

A running back going in the fifth round has a lot of talent actually.. way more than a quarterback or a Defensive end at the same point

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1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

The NFL has a shortage of lineman also.. but you're still better off drafting a 22-year-old kid and developing him into your system with professional coaches

Agreed, which is why I'd rather draft a developmental OL prospect over a running back in round 6.

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The same thing is true with running backs... That sixth round pick has alot of talent... He would probably be a top three round pick 20 years ago

 

So you can get four cheap years out of a six round pick who's good... That you scouted to fit your system

Disagree. HARD disagree.

 

A lot of young RB's struggle with things as simple as pass-pro which, more than anything, keeps them off the field. Even still, they are THE MOST PLUG AND PLAY position in modern football.

 

Let's keep this Bills-centric. Why do the Bills need a cheap, cost-controlled back for 4 seasons that we are most certainly not going to pay when their contract is up, even if they are the best RB in football, when we have James Cook for 2 more?  At best, they have a handful of carries a game (that we've established could be equaled by virtually 60+ RB's in the NFL) for the next two years. You're paying them ~900k to ~1M during this time. And they cost you a 6th round pick.

 

The opportunity cost of that alone makes no sense. I'd much rather have some big fat raw 6th round OT riding the pine and seeing spot duty/developing and let an Antonio Gibson eat up those carries for a league average or close YPC. It ain't that hard to learn a system for an RB.

 

If we look at this from another perspective, let's try to assign a numerical value for later round draft picks. Is a 6th round pick worth, say $500k?  Probably worth more than that, I'd say. Is it worth $2M+?  I'd say no, but probably in the $1M+ range. 

 

But the difference in cheap productive NFL vet RB's contract and a 6th round RB contract is going to be ~$500k.

 

The 32nd G in the NFL makes ~$4M. The 32nd RB makes $2.2M

 

The 50th G in the NFL makes $2.3M. The 50th RB makes $1.3M

 

And if we look at OT's, the discrepancy is even worse.

 

The 75th highest paid OT in the NFL makes $1.9M.

 

The math doesn't make sense. It makes infinitely more sense to draft a player at a position that:

 

1. Actually needs to time to develop (of which RB is the opposite)

2. Juice is worth the squeeze from a contract salary standpoint (of which RB is the opposite)

 

If you wanna say bring in UDFA's only, I'm all for it.  But draft picks? Nah

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7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Agreed, which is why I'd rather draft a developmental OL prospect over a running back in round 6.

Disagree. HARD disagree.

 

A lot of young RB's struggle with things as simple as pass-pro which, more than anything, keeps them off the field. Even still, they are THE MOST PLUG AND PLAY position in modern football.

 

Let's keep this Bills-centric. Why do the Bills need a cheap, cost-controlled back for 4 seasons that we are most certainly not going to pay when their contract is up, even if they are the best RB in football, when we have James Cook for 2 more?  At best, they have a handful of carries a game (that we've established could be equaled by virtually 60+ RB's in the NFL) for the next two years. You're paying them ~900k to ~1M during this time. And they cost you a 6th round pick.

 

The opportunity cost of that alone makes no sense. I'd much rather have some big fat raw 6th round OT riding the pine and seeing spot duty/developing and let an Antonio Gibson eat up those carries for a league average or close YPC. It ain't that hard to learn a system for an RB.

 

If we look at this from another perspective, let's try to assign a numerical value for later round draft picks. Is a 6th round pick worth, say $500k?  Probably worth more than that, I'd say. Is it worth $2M+?  I'd say no, but probably in the $1M+ range. 

 

But the difference in cheap productive NFL vet RB's contract and a 6th round RB contract is going to be ~$500k.

 

The 32nd G in the NFL makes ~$4M. The 32nd RB makes $2.2M

 

The 50th G in the NFL makes $2.3M. The 50th RB makes $1.3M

 

And if we look at OT's, the discrepancy is even worse.

 

The 75th highest paid OT in the NFL makes $1.9M.

 

The math doesn't make sense. It makes infinitely more sense to draft a player at a position that:

 

1. Actually needs to time to develop (of which RB is the opposite)

2. Juice is worth the squeeze from a contract salary standpoint (of which RB is the opposite)

 

If you wanna say bring in UDFA's only, I'm all for it.  But draft picks? Nah

James cooked sucked as a pass protector his first year

 

And vastly improved Year two

 

Pass protecting is the hardest thing for a professional running back to get... 

 

That's why cook didn't get on the field a lot as a rookie

 

But he learned how to pass protect.. and so can ty Johnson

 

You're not asking a sixth round rookie to come in and be a three down back dude... You're also not asking a running back on a one-year deal to come in and be a three down back

 

That young running back would have a year or two to learn the system and protections because we already have a pro bowl running back in James Cook... The guy who is top five in yardage

 

They're literally only getting guys that will complement him... And you're never fresher than the day you leave college

 

And you have a much higher chance getting a good running back than a good offensive tackle in round six... 

 

We could take a tackle and develop him rounds 1 2 3 4 5... The second we're getting around six and seven... Running back wide receiver and cornerback have the most depth

 

There's a shortage of tackles anybody who they think has talent doesn't last till the 6th round unless he has major other issues... Or they need years of development

 

I'd rather have a karlos Williams for 1 year as a complimentary back... Then develop a project tackle for 3.5 years

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30 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

We love having the oldest active back in the league. Gore, Murray, Tolbert, so which free agent fits that criteria that’s gonna take touches away from Cook? 

To be fair, Gore is a vampire so age is irrelevant 

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1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

James cooked sucked as a pass protector his first year

 

And vastly improved Year two

 

Pass protecting is the hardest thing for a professional running back to get... 

 

That's why cook didn't get on the field a lot as a rookie

 

But he learned how to pass protect.. and so can ty Johnson

 

You're not asking a sixth round rookie to come in and be a three down back dude... You're also not asking a running back on a one-year deal to come in and be a three down back

 

That young running back would have a year or two to learn the system and protections because we already have a pro bowl running back in James Cook... The guy who is top five in yardage

 

They're literally only getting guys that will complement him

So why can't we draft an RB1 in two years, and bring in a vet that has proven to be able to pass-pro to do spot duty at the same time..... like we just did for James Cook?

 

Do you grasp that you are wasting 2 years of a "cost-controlled" contract on the position that, by NFL contract standards, is already the most cost-controlled ever?

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7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So why can't we draft an RB1 in two years, and bring in a vet that has proven to be able to pass-pro to do spot duty at the same time..... like we just did for James Cook?

 

Do you grasp that you are wasting 2 years of a "cost-controlled" contract on the position that, by NFL contract standards, is already the most cost-controlled ever?

Because I'd rather take a shot on somebody who could be karlos Williams for even one year

 

If we got nine touchdowns out of a rookie running back we could be heading to the super bowl

 

A dude who was taking 30 yarders to the house and running away from NFL players like it was nothing

 

You're not getting that on a one-year free agent even if you're getting a good player

 

Yes I know he completely disappeared as a player... But that's the nature and damage of a running back

 

But this team today with rookie karlos Williams could be going to the bowl.. even for one year that is worth it

 

That's the right fifth or sixth round pick away

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Because I'd rather take a shot on somebody who could be karlos Williams for even one year

 

If we got nine touchdowns out of a rookie running back we could be heading to the super bowl

 

A dude who was taking 30 yarders to the house and running away from NFL players like it was nothing

 

You're not getting that on a one-year free agent even if you're getting a good player

 

Yes I know he completely disappeared as a player... But that's the nature and damage of a running back

 

But this team today with rookie karlos Williams could be going to the bowl.. even for one year that is worth it

 

That's the right fifth or sixth round pick away

You know what, fair enough.

 

i would argue that that’s a bad long-term strategy, but if you are gonna put your hopes on a lotto ticket, a late round RB is the position I’d bet on. 

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1 minute ago, FireChans said:

You know what, fair enough.

 

i would argue that that’s a bad long-term strategy, but if you are gonna put your hopes on a lotto ticket, a late round RB is the position I’d bet on. 

It's not a great strategy...

 

But when we have a team that's as stacked as we are... I mean we're like 47 out of 52 deep.. maybe 50-52

 

I would be looking for that little thing to get me over the edge

 

I fully understand your strategy and that is probably what 95% of the NFL should do

 

And I do like ty Johnson again... But imagine if you got him an inch bigger and 15 lb more.. with fresh legs

 

And he's capable of taking 6 yards a carry because James Cook and Josh Allen wear down the defense... That would make ty Johnson like Mike gillieslee... Who was going for six yards of carry as a third string back

 

If Josh Allen had that kind of backfield we might be unstoppable

 

I totally understand your points though good conversation

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16 hours ago, FireChans said:

You know what, fair enough.

 

i would argue that that’s a bad long-term strategy, but if you are gonna put your hopes on a lotto ticket, a late round RB is the position I’d bet on. 

 

I mean, this is essentially it.

 

The value of the RB position is such that you're probably going to get a much better RB in the late Rounds than you are any of the other positions. The odds of hitting on one of those are probably better than the 45th CB or WR left on the board.

 

And ultimately, we need probably 2 guys. Even a couple million dollars saved on not bringing in another vet RB can be the difference between one type of FA or another at some of the more important positions that we have holes to fill on.

 

If we can do better than Ty Johnson for the price he costs on the one guy I see us bringing in, that's fine by me. But my mindset is 1 Vet Min FA and 1 Late Round Pick.

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I think any of the guys on that list will be looking for bigger money than the Bills are willing to pay UNLESS they are still sitting later in the new season then like Beane did with Floyd & might be able to get them on a much better/friendlier contract .

 

I do hope that they bring back a bigger back like Murray or Harris maybe no those 2 in particular but the same or better get a bigger back in the draft in the later rounds that can be here for a few years to help keep the running game legit & something other teams have to game plan for .

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19 hours ago, Pete said:

Bills need a pass blocking, short yardage back.  That way Josh is not our battering ram.  Bills need a tough RB who runs angry.  We are lacking and need that.  A 6th or 7th most likely will not yield that.  I want a proven player 


Not sure who the answer is this year for that role but kudos to Latavius Murray who deserves a lot of credit for last year because whenever he came in it was pretty clear what he was doing—blocking, grinding out those hard to get 2 yards the D knew was coming and he also caught some timely passes—just looked up his rushing stats 79 atts/300 yds/4 TDs and he converted 27 first downs on those 79 carries (very good ratio for someone who earned them like he did).  True professional (analysts always seemed to note his value).  Wish him well.  

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4 minutes ago, wppete said:

Hopefully we sign Ty Johnson. Think Cook, Johnson and Nyhiem Hines would be a good trio. We also need Hines to return kicks and punts. 

 

Whether people like it or not, Hines will be in Training Camp on a reduced number and given every opportunity to earn a roster spot as a Reserve Back and Return Man.

 

Outside of that, I'm looking at the best vet minimum will get us at RB and then a 6th or 7th Round Back. If we can get a better RB than Johnson at the same price, I'm open to it. But if it's a penny more, I'm bringing back Johnson.

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On 2/26/2024 at 3:40 PM, BuffaloBillyG said:

And the Bills will be linked to every single one. 

 

IMO, the main one I'm watching is CEH. He's shouldn't command much and may like to reunite with Joe Brady. Would take over the Murray role. Darrynton Evans is under contract again and could be the PS/3rd RB along with a late round rookie.

I would dig havin CEH as a Bill.

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4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I don’t understand why
Being a hero aside, he really didn’t do much for the Chiefs

He wouldn’t be a 1 here, and I do understand your concerns. 2023 was a down year for sure, but the previous 4 years he averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Not the fastest guy - 4.6 fourty time but he has decent power, shifty, and great vision. I wouldn’t mind him in a split role with Ty. Obviously, we have no say in the matter and there is lots of FA backs this year. 

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Dillion.  With his size may be seen as a 2 down back.  Big guy to pair with Cook.  Im looking for a big back plus.  Not just Murray but a combo of Johnson and Murray.  Maybe draft a guy day 3 and pick up a vet before camp. 

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