2024 WR Draft Class

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

This pretty interesting. Betting props for draft position. 
 

Harrison 4.5

Nabers 5.5

Odunze 8.5

Thomas jr 17.5

Mitchell 17.5

Worthy 28.5

McConkey 32.5

Franklin 41.5

Legette 44.5

Coleman 48.5
 

 

 

The over on Mitchell is free money.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

The over on Mitchell is free money.

I’m thinking about it. But Seattle seems to be a team the Bills could trade up to.

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would. I'd go Legette, but would not freak out over Mitchell or Worthy. I think Ladd, Franklin, Coleman would all leave me feeling slightly cold but then you have to look in the context of the board at the time etc. 

It seems to me that McConkey and Worthy have relatively high floors.  McConkey should be a reliable player who is frequently open, even if he isn’t a major deep threat. Worthy seems certain to be at least a dangerous weapon deep, but may not have the bulk or hands to be a consistent chain mover. 
 

Mitchell and Coleman seem to have more bust potential.  Mitchell because of alleged effort issues and Coleman trying to get open in the league.  Franklin just scares me after the combine- he looked a lot smoother and a better route runner in games than at the combine.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I do not see Beane going WR in 1 and 2.  We have too many needs.

They do have too many needs - and I don’t think it is realistic that they will fill them all in this draft.  For all the talk of owning “so many picks”, they only have 2 of the first 127 picks.  My view has changed to finding the best players they can at important positions and just expect to have some unmet needs this year.  If that means the first two picks are WR because they are the best players, so be it.

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Here are your needs:
 

 

 

WR

WR

 

 

 

 

Safety

RB 2 

DL Depth

OL Depth

LB Depth

I would put pass rush up there with WR.  If Miller is no better than he was last year the that important position will be split between Epenesa and Toohill.

[Turk71]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m thinking about it. But Seattle seems to be a team the Bills could trade up to.

Why would the Bills trade up for Mitchell? That would be dumb

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Why would the Bills trade up for Mitchell? That would be dumb

If he’s the guy they want.

[DCOrange]

9 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

 

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.

 

For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

 

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:

• Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
• Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
• Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
• His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
• One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
• Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

 

[gonzo1105]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The over on Mitchell is free money.

If it looks that easy it isn’t. I’ve learned that in Sports gambling. They know something we don’t. Someone speculated Mitchell would go top 20 on here a bit back. 
 

Someone is going to take a chance on his traits earlier than his tape warrants 

[LEBills]

41 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:

• Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
• Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
• Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
• His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
• One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
• Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

 

Thanks for this, interesting how what he sees varies a lot from what the analytic based scouting sees where Franklin grades out pretty well in all these categories. I don’t know the methodologies, but I’m guessing Franklins big plays against all the coverage types may boost his analytics profile and may mask some of the route to route deficiencies Harmon sees. 

[Big Blitz]

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’m taking Nabers off my board.

 

 

[NewEra]

How many of ya’ll think the Dolphins are going to take Worthy with their first pick?  They’d be shrewd trade back and get some picks and still take the guy that they covet most.  If they can’t find a suitable trade partner, I think they pull the trigger at 21. 
 

Felt the same about Achane inevitably being drafted by Miami last year.  

[gonzo1105]

Just now, NewEra said:

How many of ya’ll think the Dolphins are going to take Worthy with their first pick?  They’d be shrewd trade back and get some picks and still take the guy that they covet most.  If they can’t find a suitable trade partner, I think they pull the trigger at 21. 
 

Felt the same about Achane inevitably being drafted by Miami last year.  

I think it’s a real possibility. They have spent a lot of time with him and people see DT as a huge hole because Wilkins left but they re-signed Seiler last year probably knowing full well they were going to let Wilkins go.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Interesting WR ranking.

 

 

[DCOrange]

27 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Interesting WR ranking.

 

 

I don't always agree with Thor, but he is at least willing to go against the grain with some of his takes. Also now the second person in two days to compare Troy Franklin to Marvin Mims.

Edited April 16 by DCOrange

[947]

19 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

It seems to me that McConkey and Worthy have relatively high floors.  McConkey should be a reliable player who is frequently open, even if he isn’t a major deep threat. Worthy seems certain to be at least a dangerous weapon deep, but may not have the bulk or hands to be a consistent chain mover.

 

I don't see Worthy as having a high floor at all. His floor is John Ross, which is a complete and utter bust & useless as an NFL player. He's a very risky player.

 

I think McConkey's floor is a decent NFL player, that's the definition of a high floor.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

[DCOrange]

15 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:

• Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
• Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
• Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
• His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
• One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
• Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

 

Profiles for Franklin and Xavier Legette were posted today. Updated rankings:

1. MHJ - #1 out of 63 he's scouted since 2021, Top 10 pick
2. Rome Odunze - #3, Top 10 pick
3. Malik Nabers - #8, Top 10 pick
4. Brian Thomas Jr. - #12, Clear 1st rounder
5. Ricky Pearsall - #17, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
6. Ladd McConkey - #18, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
7. Adonai Mitchell - #20, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
8. Xavier Worthy - #25, Priority Round 2
9. Troy Franklin - #28, Priority Round 2
10. Keon Coleman - #33, Good Day 2 Option
11. Xavier Legette - #34, Good Day 2 Option
12. Roman Wilson - #50, Late 3rd/Early 4th

Franklin

• 58th percentile vs. man
• 72nd percentile vs. zone
• 26th percentile vs. press
• Does a great job stacking DBs when working downfield and also does a great job breaking off his routes to come back to the ball on curls
• His poor results against press coverage point towards potentially being more of a flanker WR rather than an X at the next level
• Doesn't look comfortable working over the middle of the field
• "Difficult evaluation because he has some nuance to his route running and the type of foundation you want to build on, but the lack of play strength and his frame really haunt him".
• "I don't know how you watch Franklin play and not come away concerned that he doesn't trust his hands"
• His relatively good base of fundamentals and route running should make him much more valuable than more limited vertical types (such as Valdes-Scantling). If he can bulk up some without sacrificing his speed and flexibility, he could be really good.

Legette

• 19th percentile vs. man
• 62nd percentile vs. zone
• 19th percentile vs. press
• Fits into the same bucket as Keon Coleman where Harmon believes he best projects as a big slot in the NFL
• Good timing working over the middle, finds windows in zone coverage and displayed the ability to keep those windows open as long as possible
• Transitions to run after the catch very well
• Raw route runner, struggles with isolated routes and "is not at a place in his development where he can win one-on-one
• His plan against press coverage is "wildly underdeveloped"
• "Hard not to be cautious when projecting an older prospect with this lack of seasoning"
• Stellar in contested catch situations and has good hands in general
• "If a coach wants to use Legette outside because of his physical gifts, the ceiling for this kind of guy is an Alshon Jeffery-type; a productive contested catch maven who has big seasons but is likely best as a complementary threat. Possibilities open up if he lands with a more creative coaching staff who has a vision for him beyond the X-receiver downfield combatant"

[section122]

1 hour ago, 947 said:

 

I don't see Worthy as having a high floor at all. His floor is John Ross, which is a complete and utter bust & useless as an NFL player. He's a very risky player.

 

I think McConkey's floor is a decent NFL player, that's the definition of a high floor.

 

How do you land on that?  Because both Ross and Worthy run fast?

 

I like both players before I go into this but here is some comparisons and why I like Worthy more:

 

McConkey had 1 game with 7 catches, 2 games with 6 catches, and 7 games with 5 catches.  In his career!  He had 9 games with 1 catch.

 

Worthy had 5 games with 6 or more catches just last year.  He had 2 games in his career with 1 catch.

 

McConkey's best year was 58 catches 762 yards and 7 tds.

 

Worthy's worst year was 60 catches, 760 yards, and 9 tds. (he did have a year with 5 tds but that came along with 75 catches for 1014 yards)

 

Admittedly McConkey did miss a chunk of time with injury last year which affected his stats but also he missed some time with knee back and ankle injuries through his career.  In my mind that is a strike against him.

 

 

[DJB]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m taking Nabers off my board.

 

 

 

I think Odunze is the target anyways if we are moving up assuming Harrison is gone 

 

He clicks all the boxes especially the character and work ethic ones 

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

 

AD Mitchell continues to be my guy

[Warriorspikes51]

On 4/15/2024 at 2:51 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m thinking about it. But Seattle seems to be a team the Bills could trade up to.

yes, for BTJ. 
 

I’ll say it again…if Seattle wants to go rebuild new regime…

 

We could pull off a huge trade. 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 2nd

 

for 16 & DK Metcalf

 

 

Essentially breaks down:

 

28, 128, 2025 2nd for 16 (BTJ)

 

2025 1st, 2nd for DK Metcalf (extended)

(I think this is what it would take for them to move him and IMO it’s fair)

 

yes, you don’t have a 1st or 2nd next year

 

but you just added 2 huge Beasts on the outside who can also FLY & you kept pick 60 for whatever

 

 

DK Metcalf

Brian Thomas Jr

Samuel (line up anywhere)

Shakir (slot) 

 

+ Kincaid

 

We’re set for years. 
 

 

IMO Beane needs to be thinking along these lines.  The position is begging for a massive move

Edited April 16 by Warriorspikes51

[MiracleAtRich1393]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

yes, for BTJ. 
 

I’ll say it again…if Seattle wants to go rebuild new regime…

 

We could pull off a huge trade. 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 2nd

 

for 16 & DK Metcalf

 

 

Essentially breaks down:

 

28, 128, 2025 2nd for 16 (BTJ)

 

2025 1st, 2nd for DK Metcalf (extended)

(I think this is what it would take for them to move him and IMO it’s fair)

 

yes, you don’t have a 1st or 2nd next year

 

but you just added 2 Beasts on the outside & you kept pick 60 for whatever

 

 

DK Metcalf

Brian Thomas Jr

Samuel (line up anywhere)

Shakir (slot) 

 

+ Kincaid

 

We’re set for years. 

seems like overkill but YOLO!

[Aussie Joe]

21 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

yes, for BTJ. 
 

I’ll say it again…if Seattle wants to go rebuild new regime…

 

We could pull off a huge trade. 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 2nd

 

for 16 & DK Metcalf

 

 

Essentially breaks down:

 

28, 128, 2025 2nd for 16 (BTJ)

 

2025 1st, 2nd for DK Metcalf (extended)

(I think this is what it would take for them to move him and IMO it’s fair)

 

yes, you don’t have a 1st or 2nd next year

 

but you just added 2 huge Beasts on the outside who can also FLY & you kept pick 60 for whatever

 

 

DK Metcalf

Brian Thomas Jr

Samuel (line up anywhere)

Shakir (slot) 

 

+ Kincaid

 

We’re set for years. 
 

 

IMO Beane needs to be thinking along these lines.  The position is begging for a massive move

Throw in 60 and keep 128 and  the Seahawks may even consider this …

 

Not for me personally 

[DCOrange]

27 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

yes, for BTJ. 
 

I’ll say it again…if Seattle wants to go rebuild new regime…

 

We could pull off a huge trade. 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 2nd

 

for 16 & DK Metcalf

 

 

Essentially breaks down:

 

28, 128, 2025 2nd for 16 (BTJ)

 

2025 1st, 2nd for DK Metcalf (extended)

(I think this is what it would take for them to move him and IMO it’s fair)

 

yes, you don’t have a 1st or 2nd next year

 

but you just added 2 huge Beasts on the outside who can also FLY & you kept pick 60 for whatever

 

 

DK Metcalf

Brian Thomas Jr

Samuel (line up anywhere)

Shakir (slot) 

 

+ Kincaid

 

We’re set for years. 
 

 

IMO Beane needs to be thinking along these lines.  The position is begging for a massive move

FWIW, Benjamin Allbright is saying Seattle is basically a lock to take Troy Fautanu at #16.

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

interesting!

[gonzo1105]

7 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

interesting!

 

I see two absolute underthrows where Mitchell had his guy beat, an inaccurate pass at the goaline that is a walk in touchdown if its on target and and overthrow on a wide open WR who was actually busting it.

[Warriorspikes51]

Get him

[NickelCity]

23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Get him

 

He's gonna be a star I think.

[Turbo44]

28 Ladd

60 plus 2025 2nd for 40 - Legette 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

yes, for BTJ. 
 

I’ll say it again…if Seattle wants to go rebuild new regime…

 

We could pull off a huge trade. 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 2nd

 

for 16 & DK Metcalf

 

 

Essentially breaks down:

 

28, 128, 2025 2nd for 16 (BTJ)

 

2025 1st, 2nd for DK Metcalf (extended)

(I think this is what it would take for them to move him and IMO it’s fair)

 

yes, you don’t have a 1st or 2nd next year

 

but you just added 2 huge Beasts on the outside who can also FLY & you kept pick 60 for whatever

 

 

DK Metcalf

Brian Thomas Jr

Samuel (line up anywhere)

Shakir (slot) 

 

+ Kincaid

 

We’re set for years. 
 

 

IMO Beane needs to be thinking along these lines.  The position is begging for a massive move

 

Except Thomas and Metcalf run the same 3 routes. Having them both together would be a limited offense IMO.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think that I’ve officially gotten to the point in the offseason that I’ve convinced myself that the Bills are trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr. It just makes sense. You rarely get the chance to marry (desperate) need, with a generational talent, at the 2nd most important position, on a rookie deal.

 

 

Edited April 17 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that I’ve officially gotten to the point in the offseason that I’ve convinced myself that the Bills are trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr. It just makes sense. You rarely get the chance to marr (desperate) need, with a generational talent, at the 2nd most important position, on a rookie deal.

 

 

I will say this: the two round mock I did way back in Jan pre-FA and the two exercises we have just done here in the @Virgil mocks has convinced me that I don't want to pick at #60. I think it is a really bad spot for value for a team like Buffalo. I'm thinking more you go up a few spots with it or back a few spots with it into the early 3rd and try and pick up another 4th that allows you to then come up into the late 3rd too by bundling picks.... #28, #69, #94 something like that.... BUT giving away #60 is not a deal breaker for me in making a trade into the top 6 for Harrison, Nabers, Odunze. Okay Harrison, a 4th, two 5ths, two 6ths and a 7th probably means you are not filling many holes in this draft but you'd end up in 2025 with a 2nd, a 3rd, two 4ths and two 6ths plus likely a couple of comp picks. And you'd have an elite difference maker. That is what we have been short of more than anything else IMO. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I will say this: the two round mock I did way back in Jan pre-FA and the two exercises we have just done here in the @Virgil mocks has convinced me that I don't want to pick at #60. I think it is a really bad spot for value for a team like Buffalo. I'm thinking more you go up a few spots with it or back a few spots with it into the early 3rd and try and pick up another 4th that allows you to then come up into the late 3rd too by bundling picks.... #28, #69, #94 something like that.... BUT giving away #60 is not a deal breaker for me in making a trade into the top 6 for Harrison, Nabers, Odunze. Okay Harrison, a 4th, two 5ths, two 6ths and a 7th probably means you are not filling many holes in this draft but you'd end up in 2025 with a 2nd, a 3rd, two 4ths and two 6ths plus likely a couple of comp picks. And you'd have an elite difference maker. That is what we have been short of more than anything else IMO. 

The other part about 2025 is that you’d have lots of cap space to fill whatever needs you had. While you would sacrifice some picks, you could use the space to fill holes. You would have your QB, #1 WR and LT all under contract. Those are the most costly positions on offense. You could overpay if needed on elite talent (especially a pass rusher). 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The other part about 2025 is that you’d have lots of cap space to fill whatever needs you had. While you would sacrifice some picks, you could use the space to fill holes. You would have your QB, #1 WR and LT all under contract. Those are the most costly positions on offense. You could overpay if needed on elite talent (especially a pass rusher). 

 

I don't think they are going to have that much wiggle room cap wise in 2025. They have more than this year, sure, but by the time they have paid this rookie class they will be right on the cap number for next year (if it is around Spotrac's $273-275m estimate.... it may be a little higher than that). You can manufacture them 35-40m in space pretty easily, so they can go and do some business but it is 2026 before I think they become serious FA buyers again. 

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they are going to have that much wiggle room cap wise in 2025. They have more than this year, sure, but by the time they have paid this rookie class they will be right on the cap number for next year (if it is around Spotrac's $273-275m estimate.... it may be a little higher than that). You can manufacture them 35-40m in space pretty easily, so they can go and do some business but it is 2026 before I think they become serious FA buyers again. 

Fair. I guess what I meant earlier with the “anyone they want” comment was more about quality than quantity. If they want to pay Josh Sweat (for example) they can. It isn’t a year where they’re going to add 7 starters in FA but they can play in the top of the market if there is a guy that they need. That’ll hold especially true with no 1st. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

@Kirby Jackson, prepare to be disappointed IMO. Right or wrong to do it, looking at Beane and his history of round 1 suggests otherwise. Even his three largest moves to date (Diggs, Allen, Edmunds) are not even close to the level of this kind of monumental deal. He’s been historically more likely to move slightly in RD1.

 

I’d be very surprised to see this happen and get to #4. 
 

Pair this with the cards reportedly asking for 3 #1’s….i just don’t see it. 

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

@Kirby Jackson, prepare to be disappointed IMO. Right or wrong to do it, looking at Beane and his history of round 1 suggests otherwise. Even his three largest moves to date (Diggs, Allen, Edmunds) are not even close to the level of this kind of monumental deal. He’s been historically more likely to move slightly in RD1.

 

I’d be very surprised to see this happen and get to #4. 
 

Pair this with the cards reportedly asking for 3 #1’s….i just don’t see it. 

That’s all fair. I think Minnesota goes to 4 and takes McCarthy (😂😂). The Chargers and Giants both become viable trade partners at that point. Think how many offensive guards Harbaugh could draft with 2 firsts, 2 seconds, a fourth and a fifth!! That gives him 6 swings at a LG to replace the one that they drafted at 17 two years ago. 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

@Kirby Jackson, prepare to be disappointed IMO. Right or wrong to do it, looking at Beane and his history of round 1 suggests otherwise. Even his three largest moves to date (Diggs, Allen, Edmunds) are not even close to the level of this kind of monumental deal. He’s been historically more likely to move slightly in RD1.

 

I’d be very surprised to see this happen and get to #4. 
 

Pair this with the cards reportedly asking for 3 #1’s….i just don’t see it. 

 

I don't see a move to #4 because I think New England is picking a QB and then Minnesota is coming up to #4 and picking a QB (and the Cardinals will get their "three 1s" but they will give back their 2025 #2). The issue with #5 is while I think LA would go back, will they go that far? I'm not persuaded. 

 

Having said that, on your first point.... of course Beane's history isn't massive trade ups. No GM has that history. This is a once in a decade type move. Thomas Demitroff was GM of the Falcons for 12 years. The Juilo Jones trade wasn't a sign of a consistent pattern. It was a one off move to get a guy they thought was a star. In fact in his 12 years as GM he traded up 3 times in the first. The other two were moving up 4 or 5 spots within the 20s to get their guy..... that remind you of anyone? I am sceptical it will happen because I'm not sure I see a deal that makes sense. The mock that has it here makes it make sense my not having the Patriots take a QB and therefore Minnesota go to #3. Just not sure I see that myself. But I am not dismissing it because "Beane has never done it before." Of course he hasn't. It is a rare type of a move. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't see a move to #4 because I think New England is picking a QB and then Minnesota is coming up to #4 and picking a QB (and the Cardinals will get their "three 1s" but they will give back their 2025 #2). The issue with #5 is while I think LA would go back, will they go that far? I'm not persuaded. 

 

Having said that, on your first point.... of course Beane's history isn't massive trade ups. No GM has that history. This is a once in a decade type move. Thomas Demitroff was GM of the Falcons for 12 years. The Juilo Jones trade wasn't a sign of a consistent pattern. It was a one off move to get a guy they thought was a star. In fact in his 12 years as GM he traded up 3 times in the first. The other two were moving up 4 or 5 spots within the 20s to get their guy..... that remind you of anyone? I am sceptical it will happen because I'm not sure I see a deal that makes sense. The mock that has it here makes it make sense my not having the Patriots take a QB and therefore Minnesota go to #3. Just not sure I see that myself. But I am not dismissing it because "Beane has never done it before." Of course he hasn't. It is a rare type of a move. 

Great history and info here. You can read into this so many ways. My initial reaction is that this move was a decade ago. The game has changed and WR is now a flooded draft pool. Is there no history in this because it’s not wise? I think those top talents are game changers but how certain are they vs someone at 25 or 28? 
 

I think Beane looks at all the variables and decides the risks are not worth the reward here. Worse case scenario could be devastating to this team in Allen’s next 2-3 seasons, right within his prime. 
 

Can we compare Demitroff’s history to Beane’? I am not convinced that looking at a different GMs patterns would indicate anything as to what our GM will do. The best predictor of the future is past behavior, not your neighbors. Rare moves are the outliers, and I don’t think the state of the roster and with the other factors (talent pool, cost, risk) I would be floored if this happened.