Jukester Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) The psychology of being down by 3 vs 4 late in a game is so ingrained in football (coaches and players). Down by 3 - you feel like you can 'play it safe' and still kick the field goal to tie. You're less aggressive. Extend the game and take your chances - even thought the other team still can come back and win with a field goal. Down by 4 - full desperation and you're gonna do everything you can to score a TD, including going for it on 4th down. When the Bills were on that last drive, i knew we had to score a TD there. So I had no problem with Josh looking for Shakir in the end zone. Split second sooner before he gets bumped on the throw, and that's a TD. He was thinking TD but coaches were playing not to lose. I had no faith in Bass and even if he made it, Mahomes against our depleted defense at the end or in OT, forget it. It would've been just as heartbreaking. Edited January 22 by Jukester 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanSD Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No, but I agree with you that we should have been thinking TD at the end instead of FG. I would have liked it if they had treated that last set of downs as four-down territory (unless something went wrong and set us up for 4th-and-too-long of course). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 All I will say is if Bass had made that FG, I had zero confidence the D could have held them to zero points on their final drive. Hell, even our defensive coordinator (aka our head coach) said he decided on that Disney BS fake punt with Damar because he couldn’t trust the Defense. This one isn’t on Bass. Though I do think Bass needs to go just because he isn’t good at kicking a football through uprights; apparently a key to his position. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yes. I can't blame McDermott for kicking on a 4th and 9 with a makeable FG, but we all knew it was over the second Bass trotted onto the field. We just didn't realize it would be our kicker ending it. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) If you’re willing to run Damar Hamlin on 4th down 30 yards from the opposing EZ then why are you not willing to go for it on 4th down instead of a missed FG? That’s the logic I’m guessing? I understand and can agree with it. But I don’t think they played for 3… They didn’t convert the set of downs, had 2 TOs, down 3 and may end up getting a quick 3 and out by KC if they play it well enough… Thats exactly what KC would have tried to do. There was a reason Reid called a TO. Factor in the way the defense had played after that touchback fumble, taking the 3 is the right call. Especially as a failed conversion ends up the same as the missed FG… A guaranteed win for KC. Edited January 22 by BBFL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theRalph Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 great question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 My colleagues have been saying wide right all day to me and I could care less. Everybody knows we have no shot at the win unless we score a TD. If Sean truly grew as a HC in the ways we need that entire drive would have been 4 down territory and while the football world might have called him crazy, every fan with a crap of knowledge would have known he made one of the most ballsy and smart decisions in playoff history. KC wins on a FG probably 90% of the time if Bass makes that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 12 minutes ago, SCBills said: I can't blame McDermott for kicking on a 4th and 9 with a makeable FG, but we all knew it was over the second Bass trotted onto the field. This can't be stated enough. Even if Bass hits that kick, what are the chances our defense stops KC from getting a field goal? Considering how the game had went, it has to be close to 0%. Edited January 22 by Einstein 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfanatic8989 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said: No, but I agree with you that we should have been thinking TD at the end instead of FG. I would have liked it if they had treated that last set of downs as four-down territory (unless something went wrong and set us up for 4th-and-too-long of course). I agree on the 4th down mentality. Another possibility was-if he makes the fg, do you go for an onside kick? I wouldn't have held that against McD if he tried it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Einstein said: This can't be stated enough. Even if Bass hits that kick, what are the chances our offense stops KC from getting a field goal? Considering how the game had went, it has to be close to 0%. Agreed. There were better odds of us needing to score AGAIN with like 20 seconds left than our D actually holding them to 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toyo321 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Does anyone wish we had another dude with a better leg vs Bass as our kicker last night. I never liked Bass last year and he finally cost us a game, he has always at least to me, been performing below par compared with other NFL kickers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nklaiste1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Toyo321 said: Does anyone wish we had another dude with a better leg vs Bass as our kicker last night. I never liked Bass last year and he finally cost us a game, he has always at least to me, been performing below par compared with other NFL kickers. He's by far one of the worst kickers in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, Jukester said: The psychology of being down by 3 vs 4 late in a game is so ingrained in football (coaches and players). Down by 3 - you feel like you can 'play it safe' and still kick the field goal to tie. You're less aggressive. Extend the game and take your chances - even thought the other team still can come back and win with a field goal. Down by 4 - full desperation and you're gonna do everything you can to score a TD, including going for it on 4th down. When the Bills were on that last drive, i knew we had to score a TD there. So I had no problem with Josh looking for Shakir in the end zone. Split second sooner before he gets bumped on the throw, and that's a TD. He was thinking TD but coaches were playing not to lose. I had no faith in Bass and even if he made it, Mahomes against our depleted defense at the end or in OT, forget it. It would've been just as heartbreaking. No. Because if we had scored a TD there we would have only been up 3 and we know how that story would have ended. Josh did throw it into the EZ twice. They were going for a TD. They just didn't connect. If you want to sum up the entire game by one play, it was Chris Jones driving Dawkins into Allen to stop that TD. It was a great play by a great player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Firebaugh Kid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I knew we were toast even if Bass made that kick. 1:45 and two timeouts against a defense that was getting destroyed all night. 30-27 KC. I kept telling my girl we have to run off as much clock as possible and score a td. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 In coaching there to win 2nd and 9 I just missed 3rd down I want half -at least !!! go for it on 4th my defense couldn’t stop anything my kicker has minimal confidence right now i know my team A my qb has been incredible all game and can will his way for 9 yards for a fresh set of downs if he wanted to. thats my idea there My biggest peeve with McDermott is he just doesn’t understand his players and pay attention to them I guess 20 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: I knew we were toast even if Bass made that kick. 1:45 and two timeouts against a defense that was getting destroyed all night. 30-27 KC. I kept telling my girl we have to run off as much clock as possible and score a td. Yep was telling the fan around me 2 minutes is too much time if I’m Andy Reid I’m letting them score a td 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jukester Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Just now, Drew21PA said: In coaching there to win 2nd and 9 I just missed 3rd down I want half -at least !!! go for it on 4th my defense couldn’t stop anything my kicker has minimal confidence right now i know my team A my qb has been incredible all game and can will his way for 9 yards for a fresh set of downs if he wanted to. thats my idea there Yes, that’s the mindset needed. Mcd already knew the defense wouldn’t hold based on him faking the punt earlier. But the question is would he have gone for it on 4th and 3 or 4 in this situation when you can kick for the tie. I still think he kicks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Jukester said: Yes, that’s the mindset needed. Mcd already knew the defense wouldn’t hold based on him faking the punt earlier. But the question is would he have gone for it on 4th and 3 or 4 in this situation when you can kick for the tie. I still think he kicks. Oh HE WOULD LOVE to kick it there. Lol ita the wrong call in the divisional round of the playoffs where it’s win or go home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, stevestojan said: All I will say is if Bass had made that FG, I had zero confidence the D could have held them to zero points on their final drive. Hell, even our defensive coordinator (aka our head coach) said he decided on that Disney BS fake punt with Damar because he couldn’t trust the Defense. This one isn’t on Bass. Though I do think Bass needs to go just because he isn’t good at kicking a football through uprights; apparently a key to his position. Well as fast as KC scored on other drives, they could have scored and still left us with a minute on clock LOL Can't figure out how Bass could lose it so fast?? It's not like he's been around 12 years or so and his leg is shot?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chongli Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 An interesting perspective is we should have been in a hurry-up, going for a 2-for-1 in the final minutes, so we would have the final drive: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Kind of a ridiculous question considering we missed the kick, like why wouldn't we have preferred the possibility of Allen making a play than the certainty of the losing reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan2313 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, Drew21PA said: In coaching there to win 2nd and 9 I just missed 3rd down I want half -at least !!! go for it on 4th my defense couldn’t stop anything my kicker has minimal confidence right now i know my team A my qb has been incredible all game and can will his way for 9 yards for a fresh set of downs if he wanted to. thats my idea there My biggest peeve with McDermott is he just doesn’t understand his players and pay attention to them I guess Yep was telling the fan around me 2 minutes is too much time if I’m Andy Reid I’m letting them score a td This 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No, I think their intent was to score a TD, if you get to 4th and 9 its good to have the option to tie even though that is really a last ditch effort thing. If the FG goes through, the Bills are probably still a 75% chance to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I wish we were up by less than 3 in the :13 secs game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I was hoping the plan was to nickel and dime our way down the field and burn the clock, like we did the entire game…..but then Josh decides to take 2 shots in the endzone on 2nd and 3rd. This game ends differently if he throws to Diggs on 2nd and Kincaid on 3rd. Oh well. That’s what Josh likes to do and I can’t blame him. But his decisions on the last set of downs contributed to our loss….regardless of the amazing game he played Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NewEra said: I was hoping the plan was to nickel and dime our way down the field and burn the clock, like we did the entire game…..but then Josh decides to take 2 shots in the endzone on 2nd and 3rd. This game ends differently if he throws to Diggs on 2nd and Kincaid on 3rd. Oh well. That’s what Josh likes to do and I can’t blame him. But his decisions on the last set of downs contributed to our loss….regardless of the amazing game he played The third down play was the killer. He had three options underneath. Hits Shakir at the right time and it's a first down. Kincaid and it's likely 4th and short and we go for it. Protection was good too. Hard to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boco357 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Should have been, fully expected Chiefs to go for 2 when the Bills were offside on extra point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrivefourfive Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Jukester said: The psychology of being down by 3 vs 4 late in a game is so ingrained in football (coaches and players). Down by 3 - you feel like you can 'play it safe' and still kick the field goal to tie. You're less aggressive. Extend the game and take your chances - even thought the other team still can come back and win with a field goal. Down by 4 - full desperation and you're gonna do everything you can to score a TD, including going for it on 4th down. When the Bills were on that last drive, i knew we had to score a TD there. So I had no problem with Josh looking for Shakir in the end zone. Split second sooner before he gets bumped on the throw, and that's a TD. He was thinking TD but coaches were playing not to lose. I had no faith in Bass and even if he made it, Mahomes against our depleted defense at the end or in OT, forget it. It would've been just as heartbreaking. This is head games and I disagree with it. If you can’t understand the situations for what they're worth, then good luck. This is actually perfect for how dysfunctional the Bills are in crunch time. Get rid of the coaches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Nklaiste1 said: He's by far one of the worst kickers in the league. And as soon as he's gone will be one of the best.😔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLBillsFan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, SCBills said: Yes. I can't blame McDermott for kicking on a 4th and 9 with a makeable FG, but we all knew it was over the second Bass trotted onto the field. We just didn't realize it would be our kicker ending it. I do. You’re giving the ball back to KC with 143 left and 2 TOs. We should have run or short pass on 3rd and go for it on 4th. In fact if they went on 4th and 9 I would have been fine with it. He had 2 guys open just got his throw adjusted. Better off w Allen on 4th and 9 then a tie with tons of time for Patty. Oh and it was clear the kicker was shaky. Play to win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, Jukester said: The psychology of being down by 3 vs 4 late in a game is so ingrained in football (coaches and players). Down by 3 - you feel like you can 'play it safe' and still kick the field goal to tie. You're less aggressive. Extend the game and take your chances - even thought the other team still can come back and win with a field goal. Down by 4 - full desperation and you're gonna do everything you can to score a TD, including going for it on 4th down. When the Bills were on that last drive, i knew we had to score a TD there. So I had no problem with Josh looking for Shakir in the end zone. Split second sooner before he gets bumped on the throw, and that's a TD. He was thinking TD but coaches were playing not to lose. I had no faith in Bass and even if he made it, Mahomes against our depleted defense at the end or in OT, forget it. It would've been just as heartbreaking. I wonder about two plays - if mistakes were made or if the coaches were playing chess: - On the KC XP down 2, did McDermott have a player intentionally encroach? Analytics says take half the distance and go for two. It would be a 2 or 4 point game. If a 2 point, that’s a huge win for the Bills. If 4, then not a big difference since we’d be going fairly hard for a TD down by 3 anyway. If so, Kudos to McD for trying that. And kudos to Reid for not taking the bait. - On the fake punt, did Reid only trot out 10 men to get us to run the fake? IIRC I saw that happen earlier in the season and it worked. If so, Reid successfully baited us and had his team ready for the stop. That’s some high level coaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanfrom83 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, Jukester said: The psychology of being down by 3 vs 4 late in a game is so ingrained in football (coaches and players). Down by 3 - you feel like you can 'play it safe' and still kick the field goal to tie. You're less aggressive. Extend the game and take your chances - even thought the other team still can come back and win with a field goal. Down by 4 - full desperation and you're gonna do everything you can to score a TD, including going for it on 4th down. When the Bills were on that last drive, i knew we had to score a TD there. So I had no problem with Josh looking for Shakir in the end zone. Split second sooner before he gets bumped on the throw, and that's a TD. He was thinking TD but coaches were playing not to lose. I had no faith in Bass and even if he made it, Mahomes against our depleted defense at the end or in OT, forget it. It would've been just as heartbreaking. I trust Allen a hell of a lot more to convert 4th down than bass making that kick Allen was in I will not be denied mode he would've done whatever he had to do to make it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VaMilBill Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, BillsFanSD said: No, but I agree with you that we should have been thinking TD at the end instead of FG. I would have liked it if they had treated that last set of downs as four-down territory (unless something went wrong and set us up for 4th-and-too-long of course). I honestly think we would gone for it on 4th if it was 4th and 4 or less. That’s an issue with getting Josh’s mind right that we have an extra play to get the first. Take what they give you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospector Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, BillsFanSD said: No, but I agree with you that we should have been thinking TD at the end instead of FG. I would have liked it if they had treated that last set of downs as four-down territory (unless something went wrong and set us up for 4th-and-too-long of course). All I can say is... why didn't we replace Bass sooner when the coaches knew he was done the whole year. We passed on multiple 50+ yarders this year to punt or do some other wacky thing. Trade him to a garbage team for their good kicker who can at least attempt a 53yd FG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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