Hail Marys

[Yockopondowsk]

How difficult should it be to scheme a Hail Mary pass, even just a little?  We are so used to seeing a group of 4 receivers or so, and defenders the same, engage in NBA-like jump-ball mayhem with a low % of success. How hard would it be to pull everyone to one side of the end zone, and at a preset time have a guy (Diggs or Shakir) sneak out the back door and haul butt to the other side of the end zone. With Allen’s arm?  Russell Wilson was doing this a bit with Seattle a couple of years ago.  He threw to a preset spot.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

From my understanding you have your cluster of WR to ‘bat it’ back to another WR in front of the pile or behind. 
 

Nearly worked with Shakir. 
 

There is definitely some strategy that goes into it. 

[Marcus Aurelius]

Incorporate a trailer receiver like we saw with the Kelce throw back play? 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Incorporate a trailer receiver like we saw with the Kelce throw back play? 

 

I don’t think a throw back would work, all the defenders would still be deep enough to see it. 

 

Who ever the best jumpers are need to be in the pile to knock it to Kincaid for the rebound. 
 

Send Spencer Brown as an eligible receiver down there for the jump ball. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Yockopondowsk]

It seems a crapshoot.  It could be a weapon of note with Allen’s cannon.  

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I don’t think a throw back would work, all the defenders would still be deep enough to see it. 

 

Who ever the best jumpers are need to be in the pile to knock it to Kincaid for the rebound. 
 

Send Spencer Brown as an eligible receiver down there for the jump ball. 

Exactly.

 

A) Highly unlikely the player is uncovered. The offense will have (at most) 5 players in the EZ while the defense will have 8 (plus or minus one).

 

B) Even in the unlikely case that a player does break open, the defense will have time to get there while the ball is in the air. 

[pi2000]

Eventually some OC will figure it out and it will change the game like the "tush push".

 

You can imagine it will involve some type of mis-direction, like OP mentioned...   load up one side of the end-zone and have 1 or 2 WR sprint to the other side as the ball is being thrown..... maybe go with 2 QBs on the field, 1 split out wide for a lateral to alter the throwing angle.     

 

Or intentionally throw it short of the end-zone to draw a PI as receivers are fighting through DBs to get back to the ball.

 

I still don't understand why more QBs don't intentionally throw go routes short to draw PI.   It's impossible for the DB, with his back turned, to stop on a dime and avoid contact while running full speed downfield.... like the Taron Johnson PI against Denver.   

 

IMO there needs to be a rule protecting the DB where it's not PI if the ball is thrown short and his momentum carries him into the WR. 

[DasNootz]

Given the distance of the throw, defenders would likely have enough time to react regardless.  Even Josh has to get air under a throw of that distance.

[DrDawkinstein]

Youre also up against the refs here because they almost NEVER call a DPI penalty on a hail mary, and rightfully so imo.

 

Too easy to defend.

[pi2000]

Just now, DasNootz said:

Given the distance of the throw, defenders would likely have enough time to react regardless.  Even Josh has to get air under a throw of that distance.

 

Josh can throw a 50y frozen rope better than any QB in the league.      

[BarleyNY]

15 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I don’t think a throw back would work, all the defenders would still be deep enough to see it. 

 

Who ever the best jumpers are need to be in the pile to knock it to Kincaid for the rebound. 
 

Send Spencer Brown as an eligible receiver down there for the jump ball. 

 

Agreed. You’d have to disguise it somehow, like loop someone back as soon as everyone started to go after the ball carrier. Still. unlikely. Probably would be better off faking the Hail Mary and letting Allen take it up the sideline and then throw it back to a player coming back out of the EZ. Still low percentage, but maybe better than a HM. 

[mannc]

We executed an excellent Hail Mary on Sunday…it probably would have succeeded if Willie Gay had not made a great play to deflect the deflection. Shakir was in perfect position to make the catch.

[Yockopondowsk]

Sneak someone out the back door. It would work. Especially in a night game where the ball gets lost in the lights.  Thanks for the comments on my first post.  Happy Holidays.. Go Bills.  

[JohnNord]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

We executed an excellent Hail Mary on Sunday…it probably would have succeeded if Willie Gay had not made a great play to deflect the deflection. Shakir was in perfect position to make the catch.

 

1 minute ago, mannc said:

We executed an excellent Hail Mary on Sunday…it probably would have succeeded if Willie Gay had not made a great play to deflect the deflection. Shakir was in perfect position to make the catch.

I was just about to say that.  Josh threw a perfect pass into the scrum and Shakir was right there. Unfortunately KC had players right where they needed to be and the ball was knocked down.  It was a good rep for both sides 

[DasNootz]

8 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

 

Josh can throw a 50y frozen rope better than any QB in the league.      

It still takes time for the ball to travel 50+ yards and there's a limited area that the defender has to be able to cover because of sidelines and endlines.  Defenders would have more than enough time to cover and turn and face the ball - this gives them the same right to the ball as the WR, which largely takes PI out of the equation.

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

 

I was just about to say that.  Josh threw a perfect pass into the scrum and Shakir was right there. Unfortunately KC had players right where they needed to be and the ball was knocked down.  It was a good rep for both sides 

The bolded part of this is something that message board fans have a hard time admitting. For any Bills play that doesn't work, they immediately start looking for the mistake by a player or a coach. The other team never makes a good play.

[Another Fan]

46 minutes ago, Yockopondowsk said:

How difficult should it be to scheme a Hail Mary pass, even just a little?  We are so used to seeing a group of 4 receivers or so, and defenders the same, engage in NBA-like jump-ball mayhem with a low % of success. How hard would it be to pull everyone to one side of the end zone, and at a preset time have a guy (Diggs or Shakir) sneak out the back door and haul butt to the other side of the end zone. With Allen’s arm?  Russell Wilson was doing this a bit with Seattle a couple of years ago.  He threw to a preset spot.  

While I don't ever see this happening I have to admit I am a little surprised no opponent tried it on the Bills a few years back or now.

 

I mean the Arizona game and even that Chargers playoff game seemed to expose a weakness 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

51 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

From my understanding you have your cluster of WR to ‘bat it’ back to another WR in front of the pile or behind. 
 

Nearly worked with Shakir. 
 

There is definitely some strategy that goes into it. 

 

Same reason godwin didn't catch that pass - he was looking for the batted ball.  

[DrDawkinstein]

14 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

The bolded part of this is something that message board fans have a hard time admitting. For any Bills play that doesn't work, they immediately start looking for the mistake by a player or a coach. The other team never makes a good play.

 

Especially when we are playing a team like the Chiefs. The amount of bashing of our OLine and Diggs from that game, as if the Chiefs defense just isnt really good, is ridiculous.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Yockopondowsk said:

How difficult should it be to scheme a Hail Mary pass, even just a little?  We are so used to seeing a group of 4 receivers or so, and defenders the same, engage in NBA-like jump-ball mayhem with a low % of success. How hard would it be to pull everyone to one side of the end zone, and at a preset time have a guy (Diggs or Shakir) sneak out the back door and haul butt to the other side of the end zone. With Allen’s arm?  Russell Wilson was doing this a bit with Seattle a couple of years ago.  He threw to a preset spot.  

 

takes a WHILE for the ball to get there and if you don't fool them you have no play.  

[ElMarko]

I like the idea go having one receiver go to the other side of the field... much more likely to draw a PI call away from the "scrum"

[Buffalo Boy]

Literal question: When was the last time we completed a Hail Mary?

Said it to my son during the game, I have zero recollection of ever doing it.

[boyst]

50 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Youre also up against the refs here because they almost NEVER call a DPI penalty on a hail mary, and rightfully so imo.

 

Too easy to defend.

It's also the timing of the play. If you ran that in the middle of a ball game you sure as ***** best believe they'll call the rightful fouls and tell the team to knock that ***** off. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Literal question: When was the last time we completed a Hail Mary?

Said it to my son during the game, I have zero recollection of ever doing it.

 

1981 ? 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XJNNLuwNMw&ab_channel=NFL

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

37 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

The other team never makes a good play.

The other team's defense made a good play?!

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, boyst said:

It's also the timing of the play. If you ran that in the middle of a ball game you sure as ***** best believe they'll call the rightful fouls and tell the team to knock that ***** off. 

 

Maybe. But if you have a bunch of Receivers and DBs muddling around and all facing the ball and all jockeying for position, it gets tougher to call and you may even end up with OPI.

 

The play is called a Hail Mary for a reason. Not a great play to try to run unless you have nothing else left.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The play is called a Hail Mary for a reason. Not a great play to try to run unless you have nothing else left.

The 'Peterman Gambit' brings a whole new level of uncertainty to the play. 🤔

[pi2000]

59 minutes ago, DasNootz said:

It still takes time for the ball to travel 50+ yards and there's a limited area that the defender has to be able to cover because of sidelines and endlines.  Defenders would have more than enough time to cover and turn and face the ball - this gives them the same right to the ball as the WR, which largely takes PI out of the equation.

 

It would have to be a timing play, the ball is thrown at the exact moment the WR starts his sprint... he'd have at least a step.. mostly likely 2 or 3 on tthe DB.

[peterpan]

I like the idea of running it a down early, before the defense has put in their tallest WR and TE to hang out in the end zone. 
 

then perhaps scheme some kind of pick play where everyone is on the left side of the field, and one wr runs off a pick and to the opposite side of the field 

[transient]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

 

Josh can throw a 50y frozen rope better than any QB in the league.      

Not a great trajectory to throw a Hail Mary… unless you’re hoping it ricochets off of a helmet and someone catches it. 

[peterpan]

Or what about all the WRs sprint down field to the right corner of the end zone, Josh rolls to his right, and you throw it back to Cook who snuck out of the backfield late.  You hit him at the 30 or so, but as soon as our WRs see Josh wind up, they break for the opposite sideline, and block like it’s a punt return.

 

you could do the same thing by hitting your TE shorton the right side with a planned throw back to cook. 

[Repulsif]

1 hour ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Incorporate a trailer receiver like we saw with the Kelce throw back play? 

 

I was going to post this

[KDIGGZ]

Clearly none of our receivers play basketball. Not a single one of them boxed out. If Shakir boxes his guy out it's a TD

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Eventually some OC will figure it out and it will change the game like the "tush push".

 

You can imagine it will involve some type of mis-direction, like OP mentioned...   load up one side of the end-zone and have 1 or 2 WR sprint to the other side as the ball is being thrown..... maybe go with 2 QBs on the field, 1 split out wide for a lateral to alter the throwing angle.     

 

Or intentionally throw it short of the end-zone to draw a PI as receivers are fighting through DBs to get back to the ball.

 

I still don't understand why more QBs don't intentionally throw go routes short to draw PI.   It's impossible for the DB, with his back turned, to stop on a dime and avoid contact while running full speed downfield.... like the Taron Johnson PI against Denver.   

 

IMO there needs to be a rule protecting the DB where it's not PI if the ball is thrown short and his momentum carries him into the WR. 

Agreed, it's probably the worst penalty in the league. It rewards poorly thrown balls. Hate that call.

[strive_for_five_guy]

How about a Hail Mary attempt in the middle of the game, when the other team is not expecting it?  Would our chances of converting be increased from a normal Hail Mary?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Eventually some OC will figure it out and it will change the game like the "tush push".

 

You can imagine it will involve some type of mis-direction, like OP mentioned...   load up one side of the end-zone and have 1 or 2 WR sprint to the other side as the ball is being thrown..... maybe go with 2 QBs on the field, 1 split out wide for a lateral to alter the throwing angle.     

 

Or intentionally throw it short of the end-zone to draw a PI as receivers are fighting through DBs to get back to the ball.

 

I still don't understand why more QBs don't intentionally throw go routes short to draw PI.   It's impossible for the DB, with his back turned, to stop on a dime and avoid contact while running full speed downfield.... like the Taron Johnson PI against Denver.   

 

IMO there needs to be a rule protecting the DB where it's not PI if the ball is thrown short and his momentum carries him into the WR. 

 

You have to turn your head around if you are on under coverage and they give you a lot of leeway with contact at that point.  This play doesn't really work in a hail mary situation as you have probably 3 players down field who are watching the WRs and the QB.  They aren't going to get PI on an underthrown ball because they can see the ball as soon as its thrown.  

[Augie]

4 hours ago, Yockopondowsk said:

How difficult should it be to scheme a Hail Mary pass, even just a little?  We are so used to seeing a group of 4 receivers or so, and defenders the same, engage in NBA-like jump-ball mayhem with a low % of success. How hard would it be to pull everyone to one side of the end zone, and at a preset time have a guy (Diggs or Shakir) sneak out the back door and haul butt to the other side of the end zone. With Allen’s arm?  Russell Wilson was doing this a bit with Seattle a couple of years ago.  He threw to a preset spot.  

 

I think I need to see this drawn in dirt to fully comprehend the plan.  😋

 

I tend to enjoy Hail Mary’s. One of the first three dates with my now wife she bought me a Molson, and we watched the Doug Flutie Hail Mary for BC. That was a while ago, and still a great memory. 

[Bockeye]

I present Tacko Fall. Standing at 7’5”. We bring him in on red zone plays and Hail Marys.  He can almost reach 11’ in the air.  Good chance to draw a PI as well. 

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, Bockeye said:

I present Tacko Fall. Standing at 7’5”. We bring him in on red zone plays and Hail Marys.  He can almost reach 11’ in the air.  Good chance to draw a PI as well. 

 

For one time use only, of course.   😋

[eSJayDee]

If it's a "short" hail mary & you've got a QB w/ a good arm, it might be barely feasible.  Although the defenders are bunched, they're still spread out for maybe 8-10 yds, and they're not on the sideline, but rather more toward the middle of the field.  So even if you set up "in the corner", you've got at most 30 yds before other sideline.  I doubt any QB can throw more than 50 yds in < ~3 seconds.  Once that ball is airborne, a DB can run almost 30 yds in ~3 seconds.  If you can somehow time a receiver receiver surreptitiously break for the other sideline just as the QB is throwing, it might be viable.  But again, I think only for a "short" hail mary.