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Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

Ray Stonada

By Ray Stonada
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Ray Stonada RFA

Ray Stonada

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I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

So there you have it.

 

Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

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BillMafia716ix
BillMafia716ix

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

Ray Stonada
Ray Stonada

I agree. But best to be up three scores by the 4th quarter, otherwise we might get McD'ed.

Ray Stonada
Ray Stonada

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator.    If w

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Scott7975 Hall of Famer

Scott7975

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, boyst said:

whats the link for people unable to use google or simply too lazy? (asking for a friend)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#phi-buf-12=loss

 

Personally I prefer to use this though: https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

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Chaos All Pro

Chaos

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9 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

The only scenario I see where they get in is if they win out and Miami loses to both Baltimore and Dallas.  

Bills beating Miami, and Miami losing to any two other teams is the Bills only realistic chance.  You have identiified the most likely two other losses, but we can pray for upsets. 

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Chaos All Pro

Chaos

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1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

I am trying to convince myself that if McD is shockingly let go, and Doc Brady made interim head coach, we could win the Super Bowl. Just based on Brady's innate feel for situations. But... we'd have no defensive coordinator. AAAAHHHH.

Ah, clever job security strategy for the HC. :)

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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1 hour ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

But that’s been the problem with him and the whole team. It’s completely inconsistent every game this year. 
 

this team can beat any team in the nfl. We also can lose to any team as well. It’s so frustrating.

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McBean Veteran

McBean

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Winning out does nothing.

 

why?

 

We will lose first round in the most impossible way and guess what? Sean McDermott will still be employed here.

 

If losing out insures we can McClap, that’s the best outcome for us fans this season and for the future.

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DapperCam Veteran

DapperCam

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This is the result of the Bills winning out, and the likely favorite winning all of the other games. 

image.thumb.png.1608384f8e7d0d735a9e1736d3e83903.png

The Bills will not miss the playoffs if they go 11-6. That is just unnecessarily pessimistic.

 

- I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns don’t win another game.
- Houston is very inconsistent and eeking out wins/losses on final drives.

- The Colts and Steelers are playing over their heads right now. Nobody would be surprised if one of them starts stacking losses even with soft schedules.

 

11-6 will make it no doubt. It doesn’t matter though, because there is no way we win out.

Edited by DapperCam
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Ray Stonada RFA

Ray Stonada

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About our playoff chances:

 

We have 6 losses.

 

The division leaders are Miami, KC, Baltimore, and Jax.

 

There are 3 wildcard spots, and currently there are FIVE other teams with less than 6 losses, most of which have a better conference record.

 

No matter what we do, other than win out, it's gonna be tough.

 

I'm starting to wish we would lose the next two weeks and end the misery.

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boyst Hall of Famer

boyst

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6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I honestly had that thought today. Trade Diggs (save a bunch of money) draft Harrison and Rome O and we are loaded at receiver for great value for st least five years. 

imagine if miller comes alive in the last bit of the season and we could somehow dump him

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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1 minute ago, boyst said:

imagine if miller comes alive in the last bit of the season and we could somehow dump him

Even with his funny Geico commercial, Miller has as much trade value as OJ.

1 minute ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

And one that would likely rip our hearts out again

I’m ready to be hurt again. I’ve taken being in the playoffs for granted now. It would suck not to be in them.

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Chaos All Pro

Chaos

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9 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

The Bills will not miss the playoffs if they go 11-6. That is just unnecessarily pessimistic.

 

- I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns don’t win another game.
- Houston is very inconsistent and eeking out wins/losses on final drives.

- The Colts and Steelers are playing over their heads right now. Nobody would be surprised if one of them starts stacking losses even with soft schedules.

 

11-6 will make it no doubt. It doesn’t matter though, because there is no way we win out.

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

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Thurman#1 Hall of Famer

Thurman#1

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

So there you have it.

 

Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

 

 

The defense is very good, particularly with the injuries they've suffered. Not good enough yesterday, that's for sure. But damn good under the circumstances.

 

It's just nonsense that it all comes down to that D. The offense, though really good the last two games, should absolutely share the blame. The two missed field goals were huge in this game as well.

 

Does the D deserve a very significant share of the blame? Absolutely. 

 

Man, that was a painful loss.

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klumzyfule66 Probation

klumzyfule66

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3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023.htm

 

Pro football reference has an 'Expected W-L' which has Buffalo at 8.1-2.9 for this year.

 

From their glossary: Expected W-L - this is an estimate of what the team's record "should have been," given the team's points scored and allowed. The concept goes back to baseball analyst Bill James' Pythagorean formula.


Which the underlined then links to this wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation?force_isolation=true

 

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Livinginthepast Veteran

Livinginthepast

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1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

 

I agree. But best to be up three scores by the 4th quarter, otherwise we might get McD'ed.

This is the most crazy part of the situation. In any close game, McD not only is useless in helping the Bills win, he actually becomes a factor in helping the Bills to LOSE. His inept coaching decisions on defense and poor clock and game management are the biggest liability. Kneel down with 20 seconds left and one TO? That decision was like he wanted us to lose. I have never seen a coach like him who in the heat of the moment has a knack for making the worst decision possible.

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CodeMonkey All Pro

CodeMonkey

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Negan said:

Chiefs L

Cowboys L

Chargers L

Patriots W

Dolphins L

Time for a higher draft pick, and hopefully McDermott gets fired 

Chargers are currently 4-7 and on a 3 game losing streak. So your L prediction seems a bit pessimistic, no? :)

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Negan RFA

Negan

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4 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

Chargers are currently 4-7 and on a 3 game losing streak. So your L prediction seems a bit pessimistic, no? :)

I'm sure they'll find their way against a McDermott led defense, just hope we take the lead with zero's on the clock

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