5 Games In - Reality Check

[ngbills]

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by ngbills

[NewEra]

Miller went out on thanksgiving not week 6.

 

it’s a different team.

[MPL]

I'd say this team is exactly who we thought they were: the most confounding, impossible-to-judge, best-dvoa-ever-yet-somehow-simultaneously-disappointing collection of lovable rag-tag idiots the NFL has ever seen. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by MPL

[BillzFreak]

10 minutes ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Miller went out week 6, Hyde went out week 2, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

And hey maybe we go 4 and 2 or 1 and 5 that's the thing..the games are played either way. Teams can win and lose, the Dolphins might go undefeated from here or maybe even crap the bed. Maybe travis kelce decides to become the next pop icon along side Taylor Swift. This was far from a reality check post more so let me assume how I feel the season plays out.

Edited October 9, 2023 by BillzFreak

[Success]

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

[ngbills]

Just now, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

How are we better? Feels better? Looks better? What have done that is better than last year? 

[Boatdrinks]

Last year means absolutely zero with regards to this years edition. It’s a new season and a different team. We may have heard how impressive this years numbers were when the team had one loss. We haven’t heard much about them with two losses as it was only yesterday. Going forward , with the injuries sustained I believe the Bills will be fortunate to win one of their 4 most difficult games vs CIN, DAL, KC and PHL. They’d do well to secure a WC playoff berth. This could change if a significant trade for a quality CB or WR is made. 

[Success]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

How are we better? Feels better? Looks better? What have done that is better than last year? 

 

We're better in pretty much every aspect of the game. DVOA was through the roof until yesterday.  Our defense is MUCH better - the line is one of the best in the league.  With McD calling plays, we've been more aggressive, and have a pass rush that is on par w/ basically any other team.  We'll still be a top 5 defense for this season.

 

We have a much better running game this year - and 3 backs who all bring something to the table.  Kincaid will continue to get better. Sherfield and Harty are both better than the guys they replaced.  Davis has been much improved this season. And the O-line is significantly better in both pass protection & run blocking.

 

I think that about covers it.

 

EDIT: and JA is healthy now, too.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Success

[gonzo1105]

It doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 40 and it doesn't matter if you lose by 1 or lose by 40 it all counts as 1 win or 1 loss. The team is 3-2 and that's what they are right now despite whatever stats wanna be thrown out. 

[Billl]

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

[jaybills]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Miller went out on thanksgiving not week 6.

 

it’s a different team.

He never said week 6. Said he was gone 6 games. 

[90sBills]

Bills have a great chance to win the next 3 games to improve to 6-2. Everyone will forget this feeling and the fact that this team struggles in tight games with tough opponents. Then the next tough opponent, Cincy, will bring all the negative feelings back. Just like clockwork. Book it. 

[Big Blitz]

17 minutes ago, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

I think 11-6 barring any more catastrophic injuries.  
 

I think we’ll get to 6-2.  Finish 5-4.  
 

Losses:

 

Bengals

Chiefs 

Chargers 

Eagles 

 

If we pull off a win in one of these I’d be good.  
 

We’re going to beat Dallas at home.  

 

Miami might not need to win week 18.  So I’m currently leaving that TBD.  

10-7 with what could be 6 conference losses might not even make playoffs.  

 

Just get in.  Hope for the best.  Just like I felt after Thanksgiving in 2021.  And Thanksgiving in 2022.  

Edited October 9, 2023 by Big Blitz

[zow2]

The reality check for me is that the Buffalo Bills are not in the same class as:  San Fran, KC and Philly.  I thought they were after the Miami game but they're just not.  The Bills lose too many close games...the running game disappears, coaching gets disjointed and too many weird things happen including serious injuries.

 

I'd put the Bills in there with Dallas, Miami, Cinci, Detroit, Jags.  The problem is Burrow is getting healthy and the Bengals could get on a serious roll and Miami can outscore anyone on a given Sunday plus their RB's are insane. Meanwhile Buffalo is trending a little downwards from major defensive injuries.  It's reality.

[Success]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

I think 11-6 barring any more catastrophic injuries.  
 

I think we’ll get to 6-2.  Finish 5-4.  
 

Losses:

 

Bengals

Chiefs 

Chargers 

Eagles 

 

If we pull off a win in one of these I’d be good.  

 

Miami might not need to win week 18.  So I’m currently leaving that TBD.  
 

 

Just get in.  Hope for the best.  Just like I felt after Thanksgiving in 2021.  And Thanksgiving in 2022.  

 

I doubt we lose all of the games we're 'supposed' to lose (basically, the 4 you have listed).  I'd think we can beat any of those teams - we might lose to the Bengals, and beat the Chiefs, or vice versa.  

 

I don't disagree w/ the final record, but if we end up w/ 6 losses, 1 or 2 will probably be L's we don't expect.  We'll beat some of the good teams in that hard stretch.  Just not sure which ones.

 

[Ya Digg?]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

The reverse can also easily be said. Too many on here almost seem to enjoy a Bills loss more than they do a win. Threads just full of I told you so, doin and gloom, (insert name here) needs to be fired/traded 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

So the Bucs, fins, Seahawks, are better than the bills?  The bills are equal to the colts, Steelers, saints and falcons?  
 

I agree margin of victory is overrated.  I disagree that you are what your record says you are.  Would’ve loved to see KC play a home game Vs jax in london after jax had been there for 11 days…. which Jax players openly admitted gave them a huge advantage.  Sometimes you aren’t what your record says you are. 

 

[jkeerie]

The two games that scared me the most when I saw the schedule, was opening day versus the Jets on 9/11 and playing the Jags in London after they had two games in a row there.  I just had bad vibes about those games.  (I especially hate the Jags.)  So...I chalked those games off as probable losses.

 

What is compounding things this year though, this year, is the devastating player losses of late.   Those player losses are to key players.  Injuries can quickly derail seasons.  Hopefully, the Bills can find their way through this and rise above.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

And if we’re say the 6 seed - that’s likely the Jags Chiefs or Dolphins in Round 1.  
 

The AFC North winner has 4 seed written all over them.   

[Negan]

This team will probably be a wild card team at best.  Don't see the Dolphins losing too many games. 

[RyanC883]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The reality check for me is that the Buffalo Bills are not in the same class as:  San Fran, KC and Philly.  I thought they were after the Miami game but they're just not.  The Bills lose too many close games...the running game disappears, coaching gets disjointed and too many weird things happen including serious injuries.

 

I'd put the Bills in there with Dallas, Miami, Cinci, Detroit, Jags.  The problem is Burrow is getting healthy and the Bengals could get on a serious roll and Miami can outscore anyone on a given Sunday plus their RB's are insane. Meanwhile Buffalo is trending a little downwards from major defensive injuries.  It's reality.

 

we need a new HC.  McD is NOT up to the task.  Every season it's something, but the one constant is, as you pointed out, the disjointed nature of it all.  

[major]

31 minutes ago, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

I had us 11-6 going into season. We are right on target and will hit our stride in playoffs 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Someone remind me what our record was in '21 before we went on to give KC all they could handle in the playoffs

 

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And if we’re say the 6 seed - that’s likely the Jags Chiefs or Dolphins in Round 1.  
 

The AFC North winner has 4 seed written all over them.   

Long way off , but you don’t want to be 6 seed if it’s a WC berth. See what happens 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Last seasons Super Bowl Champions were 3-2 after 5 weeks. Lots of ball left to play. Coming up with conclusions after week 5 is an exercise in failure.

[Roundybout]

14 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

we need a new HC.  McD is NOT up to the task.  Every season it's something, but the one constant is, as you pointed out, the disjointed nature of it all.  

 

McD will go when the current core is totally gone. Not a minute sooner. 

[RyanC883]

2 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

McD will go when the current core is totally gone. Not a minute sooner. 

 

and will then leave with 0 SB trophies.  Hope I'm wrong, but he is a subpar HC.  

[Success]

Just now, RyanC883 said:

 

and will then leave with 0 SB trophies.  Hope I'm wrong, but he is a subpar HC.  

 

Honestly, there aren't that many elite coaches out there.  Maybe 3?  McD is in tier-2, and that's good enough to get us a title.  

 

A team could spend decades looking for an elite coach.  

[RyanC883]

Just now, Success said:

 

Honestly, there aren't that many elite coaches out there.  Maybe 3?  McD is in tier-2, and that's good enough to get us a title.  

 

A team could spend decades looking for an elite coach.  

 

this might be correct.  But then we need to hide his decencies by getting a legit OC in here, and by better matching player acquisition to their eventual use (thinking Elam pick and Harty FA acquisition here).  

 

 

[Franco_92]

That was not our easy stretch lol, our next two games are versus the Giants and the Patriots. 

 

Tampa after that, and a mediocre Cinci, and then the Broncos and Rodgers-less Jets. Yes, I know we lost to them once in OT in their building. It doesn't really get easier than that for any six game stretch any NFL team can face. Bills need at least 5 of those and they will get them

14 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Someone remind me what our record was in '21 before we went on to give KC all they could handle in the playoffs

 

That team was 4-2, 5-3, 6-4, and 7-6 at various points! 

If we can get our offense humming in late December and don't have any more season-ending injuries (hopefully a reasonable proposition) I am as excited about this team as ever

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, arcane said:

That team was 4-2, 5-3, 6-4, and 7-6 at various points! 

If we can get our offense humming in late December and don't have any more season-ending injuries (hopefully a reasonable proposition) I am as excited about this team as ever

Exactamente

 

And the complaining was fierce on TSW

 

[Boatdrinks]

18 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Someone remind me what our record was in '21 before we went on to give KC all they could handle in the playoffs

 

They were 4-2 to start. Bills could be 4-2 after Sunday nights game. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

They were 4-2 to start. Bills could be 4-2 after Sunday nights game. 

 

Bingo!

 

[The Red King]

I think losing Milano after Tre was backbreaking for our D, which hurts.

 

Allen did not play hero-ball yesterday, even when I'm sure he was sorely tempted.  Let's not overlook that.

 

Honestly, my only concerns is Davis is a WR3, not a WR2.  They need to add one.

 

The biggest concern, honestly, is Dorsey.  He's just not looking up to task.  When his plan works, it works, but he is strugging at making adjustments.  He is also trying to force players into his scheme instead of molding his scheme for his players.

 

I think Dorsey is holding a potentially elite offense down, and injuries may well do in our defense.  Which is a shame because I believe we're close.

[Unforgiven]

They can beat the 16 or so mediocre teams, and lose to the good ones.

This team has peaked and needs a soft rebuild. they will be bounced as a wild card

at best this season.

[CincyBillsFan]

47 minutes ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

I disagree with your basic assertion that after only 5 games you can make the conclusions you're making:

 

*  Your 1st point about the Bills having their worst 5 game record since 2018 is deeply misleading and implies that we have a problem here.  But to suggest that "3 - 2" is meaningfully worse then "4 - 1" is disingenuous. 

 

*  And what do you think your comparison will look like after next weeks game?  In both 2020 & 2021 we were 4 - 2 after 6 games. Are you thinking we will lose to the Giants on Sunday night keeping us from being 4 - 2?

 

*  Sure at this point last season our big wins over the Rams & Titans looked impressive. But both wins looked a hell of a lot less impressive at the end of the season.

 

The rest of your argument is beneath even the minimum standards of a message board.  The one thing any football fan knows is that if transitive properties don't apply to football games they sure as hell don't apply to comparisons across multiple seasons.

 

 

 

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Allen lost game 1

WRs and injuries cost us game 5

 

Bills can play with anyone and the AFC is not nearly as good as it was supposed to be.

 

If offense can stay healthy they can make a SuperBowl run with Allen.

 

After years of beating up McDermott the biggest liability on this team may be Dorsey. 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Last seasons Super Bowl Champions were 3-2 after 5 weeks. Lots of ball left to play. Coming up with conclusions after week 5 is an exercise in failure.

As were last season's AFC conference championship runner ups.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

I really hate Jacksonville.  Nevermind my icon it has nothing to do with that stupid team

[dpberr]

Similar seasons:

 

Negative:

 

Cocaine Josh can still make surprise appearances.  

The Bills still don't know how to use running backs.  

Make the game harder by using the TE position largely for blocking.

The offensive game plan remains one dimensonal - it is still the Stefon Diggs show, and when that gets shut down by any team with a decent CB1, the Bills have nothing.  

 

Positives:

The defense is nastier and consistent.  It just wore out yesterday. 

The young players who get consistent game time are really, really good.