It was always play action.

[FireChans]

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

[GoBills808]

Play action improves protection

 

Whenever Allen has reasonable (doesn't even have to be good) pass protection he is the best QB in the league

[Motorin']

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

 

There's a world of difference when the Bills utilize play action from under center when they have a viable run game that the defense has to worry about, versus never lining up under center and half assing play action out of shotgun to a running back the defense doesn't respect. 

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

 

Rex Ryan said as much that whether you can run the ball or not makes no difference in terms of the success of play action because it causes a split second hesitation for the players to locate the ball and then they have to make a decision on what to do.  That hesitation is going to happen no matter what and that is enough time for the offense to create separation or give Allen a little extra time to attack deep.

[Warcodered]

Can playaction be effective without a running game, sure, would it be more effective with a good running game, obviously.

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Rex Ryan said as much that whether you can run the ball or not makes no difference in terms of the success of play action because it causes a split second hesitation for the players to locate the ball and then they have to make a decision on what to do.  That hesitation is going to happen no matter what and that is enough time for the offense to create separation or give Allen a little extra time to attack deep.

Yeah I hate to give credit to the old Blowhard but I heard him and he is right.

 

Josh under center with lay action is hard to beat,

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

There's a world of difference when the Bills utilize play action from under center when they have a viable run game that the defense has to worry about, versus never lining up under center and half assing play action out of shotgun to a running back the defense doesn't respect. 

this is the relationship between EPA/rush and EPA/play action dropback

 

as you can see very little correlation

 

the quality of your run game does not impact the effectiveness of play action passes

[boyst]

josh also needs to be under center.

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Can playaction be effective without a running game, sure, would it be more effective with a good running game, obviously.

What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not.  My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward.  I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this.  3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.  

[co_springs_billsfan]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

this is the relationship between EPA/rush and EPA/play action dropback

 

as you can see very little correlation

 

the quality of your run game does not impact the effectiveness of play action passes

Never been a fan of Jackson Pollock

[SoonerBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

I posted last week he needed to be under center a lot more and got blasted for it.

[LABILLBACKER]

I've always hated the shotgun draw. It completely neutralizes the speed of Cook.  Now with 3 different rbs, we have the luxury to freeze lbs and take a few shots downfield.  We as fans have been screaming for it (along with more motion) and its finally happening.  Hats off to Dorsey & McD recognizing this missing piece.

[Motorin']

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

this is the relationship between EPA/rush and EPA/play action dropback

 

as you can see very little correlation

 

the quality of your run game does not impact the effectiveness of play action passes

 

Oh ok then. So if the Bills line up in shotgun 100% of the time, never run the ball once, the play cation would be just as effective as lining up under center 50% of the time and having a pass / run ratio of 50 / 50?

 

Your scatter plot reminds me of the study Purdue pharma used to insist that less than 1% of patients will become addicted to oxycontin. 

9 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not.  My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward.  I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this.  3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.  

 

Who needs context when you have maths?

Edited October 2, 2023 by Motorin'

[That's No Moon]

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

It's not about the run, it's the threat of the run. Need to keep showing it in early downs, even if it's not working that well.

[McBean]

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

Can you imagine Josh with Kyle Shannahan 

[RobbRiddick]

I get a tingly feeling when I see Josh under center. It could be sexual but I think it's that part of me that loves the old school 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Oh ok then. So if the Bills line up in shotgun 100% of the time, never run the ball once, the play cation would be just as effective as lining up under center 50% of the time and having a pass / run ratio of 50 / 50?

correct

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Oh ok then. So if the Bills line up in shotgun 100% of the time, never run the ball once, the play cation would be just as effective as lining up under center 50% of the time and having a pass / run ratio of 50 / 50?

 

Your scatter plot reminds me of the study Purdue pharma used to insist that less than 1% of patients will become addicted to oxycontin. 

Yep and it is. 

 

Also you can line up under center 100% of the time and NEVER run and play action will still just be as effective. 

 

As proven OVER and OVER and OVER again.  You do not NEED an effective Running Game for Play action to work.  

Edited October 2, 2023 by MAJBobby

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

correct

 

Tell me you don't know how to interpret statistics without telling me you don't know how to interpret statistics. 

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Yep and it is. 

 

Also you can line up under center 100% of the time and NEVER run and play action will still just be as effective. 

 

And there's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow too! 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Motorin'

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

Tell me you don't know how to interpret statistics without telling me you don't know how to interpret statistics. 

 

And there's a pot at the end of the rainbow. 

Sorry you do not. The reality is all the analytics SHOW THAT. 

 

Why?

 

LBers play of KEYS. 

 

G-C-G Triangle (run action they play Run)

Through QB to RB

 

A RUN ACTION the LBers will play RUN.  That is the reality.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Tell me you don't know how to interpret statistics without telling me you don't know how to interpret statistics. 

 

And there's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow too! 

it doesn't require an interpretation lol

 

dont stress yourself out over it

[MAJBobby]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

it doesn't require an interpretation lol

 

dont stress yourself out over it

It is just another that will not accept the reality.  That a Running Game has ZERO correlation to the effectiveness of the PA pass.  Cannot get past all the coachisms on this and see the reality based off math.

 

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

it doesn't require an interpretation lol

 

dont stress yourself out over it

 

Byeeee

[HoofHearted]

16 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not.  My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward.  I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this.  3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.  

Under center or not - a mesh action is going to hold any defender keying the mesh a split second.

[Motorin']

Just now, MAJBobby said:

It is just another that will not accept the reality.  That a Running Game has ZERO correlation to the effectiveness of the PA pass.  Cannot get past all the coachisms on this and see the reality based off math.

 

 

OMG, these people who think math is the real world, instead of an approximate of specific circumstances at specific moments.

 

Probably still the people that insist math is broken because Josh Allen was able to complete mor Ethan 50% of his passes. 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

OMG, these people who think math is the real world, instead of an approximate of specific circumstances at specific moments.

 

Probably still the people that insist math is broken because Josh Allen was able to complete mor Ethan 50% of his passes. 

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/18/nfl-analytics-study-running-the-ball-play-action-success-mike-mccarthy-dallas-cowboys/

 

go ahead and learn that your coachism is JUST that 

[HoofHearted]

14 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I've always hated the shotgun draw. It completely neutralizes the speed of Cook.  Now with 3 different rbs, we have the luxury to freeze lbs and take a few shots downfield.  We as fans have been screaming for it (along with more motion) and its finally happening.  Hats off to Dorsey & McD recognizing this missing piece.

"the shotgun draw" 😂

[YattaOkasan]

18 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Under center or not - a mesh action is going to hold any defender keying the mesh a split second.

Sure but I guess which holds the defender longer.  seems a bit harder to find the ball when one player could be running the opposite direction from the RB (versus standing next to them or not running as fast)

[boyst]

fun thread

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I posted last week he needed to be under center a lot more and got blasted for it.

Don’t believe you lol

[HoofHearted]

30 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sure but I guess which holds the defender longer.  seems a bit harder to find the ball when one player could be running the opposite direction from the RB (versus standing next to them or not running as fast)

One player could be running the opposite direction from the RB out of gun too. The length of time it holds defenders depends on the action.

[Johnnycage46]

Orlovsky (love him or hate him) has been beating this drum all season.  He thinks the Bills are the best under-center play-action team in the league.  Based on Allen's numbers in those scenarios, it's hard to argue against it.

[FireChans]

56 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

it doesn't require an interpretation lol

 

dont stress yourself out over it

Folks wonder why NFL coaches don’t play the numbers more when we have people among us who deny reality everyday. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Play action helps the OL. It’s definitely working. Teams will adjust to it though. 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

There's a world of difference when the Bills utilize play action from under center when they have a viable run game that the defense has to worry about, versus never lining up under center and half assing play action out of shotgun to a running back the defense doesn't respect. 

IIRC, Thurman always forced the D to respect his ability to run out of shotgun—maybe we still can get back to that with the current stable as well? 

[strive_for_five_guy]

Play-action makes me think back to the Kelly era days.  When Van Miller started making the call that a play-action was unfolding, it was almost inevitable that Kelly was about to make a big play.  I know “the game has changed”, but clearly this still works and especially for a guy with a rocket arm and wheels.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

It's not but it still causes the linebackers to stay a split second longer before dropping back.  That's why it's effective.

 

[Julio Hopkins]

Play action, pre-snap motion, and misdirection.  The absolute keys the Dolphins offense.  You know who else?  Literally every offense in football.  Defenses by nature are at a supreme disadvantage because they have to react to the offense.  

[BillsVet]

Running game improves when it's not a handoff from shotgun like it seemed to be primarily last couple seasons. 

 

I'd still like to see analytics to back it up, but that's one takeaway from yesterday with Josh under center more.      

 

Have to hope down the road that they'll take a couple more shots downfield.  Even with Diggs and that long score yesterday, top 5 receivers averaging 11.6 yards per completion.  Maybe that's working Kincaid more.  

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Rex Ryan said as much that whether you can run the ball or not makes no difference in terms of the success of play action because it causes a split second hesitation for the players to locate the ball and then they have to make a decision on what to do.  That hesitation is going to happen no matter what and that is enough time for the offense to create separation or give Allen a little extra time to attack deep.

 

Quoting Rex Ruin?

 

Play action is MORE effective if a defense respects your running game and has to account for run defense. That should be a no-brainer.

 

Play action to Derrick Henry made Tannehill look like a great QB because defenses had to respect that running ability and it created a lot of space to hit his receivers.

 

Also, I think we do try some RPO plays, but those have to be strictly rule-based (QB triggers off a read) and clear on timing and execution for whether the QB hands it off or keeps it. Allen is notoriously greedy on those as I think he just feels better about the ball being in his hands to make something out of the play - the defensive reads be damned. So those exchanges result in some exaggerated and awkward handoffs that need to be cleaner.

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by WideNine