Really excited about the impact Conor McGovern signing that's barely talked about will have on the O

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

We could have drafted our center for the Josh Allen era of Bills football.  Morse is not bad as 2nd prize but he's also got more we esr and tear and shelf life is ticking for his career.  Much like Eric Wood had to retire for health concerns.

 

 

Centers are sorta' like RB's.   Use em' up and move on.  But don't draft them early.  

 

For all the talk about Humphrey from some Bills fans.........what they don't talk about is how KC moved on from their previous very good centers in Rodney Hudson and Mitch Morse because they didn't want to pay a center good money.

 

Sure Hudson went on to be a a perennial pro bowler and even an All Pro one season after he left KC.........and Morse could have been a solid center for KC for many years and sured up that spot and they could have used that Humphrey pick elsewhere.

 

But NOT PAYING a center is sound decision making.

 

Centers aren't that hard to find and the position is a bit devalued with the league getting away from defense's that line up big run stuffing NT's directly over the center.   Creed Humphrey is a fine player but the reality is that he spends half his time in pass pro blocking air and deciding which guard to help block.

 

The Bills were a dumpster fire organization who needed 4 new OL when they got to UFA after 2018 and because Mitch Morse was just a center he was about the best OL they could overpay to get.    I didn't like the Basham pick and said so here at the time........but I wouldn't have wanted the Bills to draft Humphrey either.    Humphrey is likely to fall somewhere between $15M-$20M aav after this season or next........I'd want no part of that for the rest of the "Josh Allen era".

Edited August 17, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Doc]

55 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Centers are sorta' like RB's.   Use em' up and move on.  But don't draft them early.  

 

For all the talk about Humphrey from some Bills fans.........what they don't talk about is how KC moved on from their previous very good centers in Rodney Hudson and Mitch Morse because they didn't want to pay a center good money.

 

Sure Hudson went on to be a a perennial pro bowler and even an All Pro one season after he left KC.........and Morse could have been a solid center for KC for many years and sured up that spot and they could have used that Humphrey pick elsewhere.

 

But NOT PAYING a center is sound decision making.

 

Centers aren't that hard to find and the position is a bit devalued with the league getting away from defense's that line up big run stuffing NT's directly over the center.   Creed Humphrey is a fine player but the reality is that he spends half his time in pass pro blocking air and deciding which guard to help block.

 

The Bills were a dumpster fire organization who needed 4 new OL when they got to UFA after 2018 and because Mitch Morse was just a center he was about the best OL they could overpay to get.    I didn't like the Basham pick and said so here at the time........but I wouldn't have wanted the Bills to draft Humphrey either.    Humphrey is likely to fall somewhere between $15M-$20M aav after this season or next........I'd want no part of that for the rest of the "Josh Allen era".

 

And yet the Chefs used a 2nd rounder on Humphrey.  In hindsight taking him over Basham would have been the far better move because it would have allowed them to save $10M/year.  And then they could have let him walk in FA in 2025.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Doc

[BuffaloBillyG]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Centers are sorta' like RB's.   Use em' up and move on.  But don't draft them early.  

 

For all the talk about Humphrey from some Bills fans.........what they don't talk about is how KC moved on from their previous very good centers in Rodney Hudson and Mitch Morse because they didn't want to pay a center good money.

 

Sure Hudson went on to be a a perennial pro bowler and even an All Pro one season after he left KC.........and Morse could have been a solid center for KC for many years and sured up that spot and they could have used that Humphrey pick elsewhere.

 

But NOT PAYING a center is sound decision making.

 

Centers aren't that hard to find and the position is a bit devalued with the league getting away from defense's that line up big run stuffing NT's directly over the center.   Creed Humphrey is a fine player but the reality is that he spends half his time in pass pro blocking air and deciding which guard to help block.

 

The Bills were a dumpster fire organization who needed 4 new OL when they got to UFA after 2018 and because Mitch Morse was just a center he was about the best OL they could overpay to get.    I didn't like the Basham pick and said so here at the time........but I wouldn't have wanted the Bills to draft Humphrey either.    Humphrey is likely to fall somewhere between $15M-$20M aav after this season or next........I'd want no part of that for the rest of the "Josh Allen era".

All very valid points. Some I agree wholeheartedly with and others not.

 

However let me ask this. Are you happier paying Morse right now as opposed to potentially having drafted Creed and had him on a rookie contract for 4 years? Then when his contract is up letting him walk and gain a potential comp pick in return. 

 

What you are saying is somewhat contridicting by saying you wouldn't have wanted the guy on the rookie contract for a 4 year stretch....yet also don't want to pay a center like we pay Morse.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

And yet the Chefs used a 2nd rounder on Humphrey.  In hindsight taking him over Basham would have been the far better move because it would have allowed them to save $10M/year.  And then they could have let him walk in FA in 2025.

 

They also drafted Clyde Edwards Helaire in round 1 the very draft prior and have eschewed paying a RB since all the way back when they had Jamal Charles.

 

There is no doubt Humphrey stood out on the board if you don't consider positional value at all.   It's possible that they were buying into drafting ready-to-play but devalued positions early and using them up for 4-5 seasons and discarding them at the time that they made those draft decisions.   Personally I think the early pick part is an idiotic approach to devalued positions..........but it's apparently a real mindset according to those who talk to GM's.

 

Fwiw Mitch Morse hasn't been a liability for the Bills.........he's probably been their most consistent OL the past 2 seasons...........and I fully expect Bates to be able to step in and be the same quality for a few more years at a bargain price after Morse is done.  

 

Meanwhile,  someone will be paying Humphrey $15M-$20M while the other 4 lineman around him are more important to the success of their offense.   My hope would be that the Bills can focus on the 4 more important OL positions with top dollars and premium assets.    But if you want to dream on early round centers.........do what makes you happy.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

All very valid points. Some I agree wholeheartedly with and others not.

 

However let me ask this. Are you happier paying Morse right now as opposed to potentially having drafted Creed and had him on a rookie contract for 4 years? Then when his contract is up letting him walk and gain a potential comp pick in return. 

 

What you are saying is somewhat contridicting by saying you wouldn't have wanted the guy on the rookie contract for a 4 year stretch....yet also don't want to pay a center like we pay Morse.

 

 

I'd surely rather not pay a center big money but drafting centers or RB's in the first two rounds would just not be part of my process.    The juice isn't worth the squeeze.   Humphrey is an outstanding center but you don't need one of those to win.   The other 4 OL positions are more impactful in the NFL today.

 

And no I'm not contradicting myself saying you neither pay RB's or Centers top money nor draft them early.    You do NEITHER.   You can find good enough versions of players at those positions across the board or cheap in UFA.   If you can't,  you just aren't a good at evaluating personnel as an organization.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Meanwhile,  someone will be paying Humphrey $15M-$20M while the other 4 lineman around him are more important to the success of their offense.   My hope would be that the Bills can focus on the 4 more important OL positions with top dollars and premium assets.    But if you want to dream on early round centers.........do what makes you happy.

He is definitely going to get PAID.  GMs think highly of him and there will be a bidding war.

[Doc]

59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They also drafted Clyde Edwards Helaire in round 1 the very draft prior and have eschewed paying a RB since all the way back when they had Jamal Charles.

 

There is no doubt Humphrey stood out on the board if you don't consider positional value at all.   It's possible that they were buying into drafting ready-to-play but devalued positions early and using them up for 4-5 seasons and discarding them at the time that they made those draft decisions.   Personally I think the early pick part is an idiotic approach to devalued positions..........but it's apparently a real mindset according to those who talk to GM's.

 

Fwiw Mitch Morse hasn't been a liability for the Bills.........he's probably been their most consistent OL the past 2 seasons...........and I fully expect Bates to be able to step in and be the same quality for a few more years at a bargain price after Morse is done.  

 

Meanwhile,  someone will be paying Humphrey $15M-$20M while the other 4 lineman around him are more important to the success of their offense.   My hope would be that the Bills can focus on the 4 more important OL positions with top dollars and premium assets.    But if you want to dream on early round centers.........do what makes you happy.

 

Don't get me wrong, Morse was an important get for a young QB like Josh and has more or less justified his contract with the Bills.  But he had (at the time of the 2021 draft) a concussion history and was getting long in the tooth.  I gladly would have drafted Humphrey and then let him go the following year and used the $10M/year savings elsewhere on the team, like at another OL position, and in 4 years find another center.  Especially in hindsight where Basham hasn't even come close to Humphrey.

 

And again despite being able to use about anyone at C, the Chefs felt strong enough about him to take him that high.  But they'll lose him not because they don't think he's worth it, but because they simply can't afford to keep him.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Doc

[HappyDays]

I feel very good about our interior. McGovern, Morse, Torrence, Bates, Edwards; you could take multiple versions of that group and turn it into at least a solid starting interior. If any one of those players gets injured we can manage.

 

Tackle is still the big question mark. I weirdly feel more optimistic about Brown than Dawkins right now but hopefully Dawkins has finally gotten himself into shape after a full training camp. More concerning than the starters is the depth. If Brown or Dawkins goes down for more than just a few snaps, which is not a particularly improbable scenario, we are in deep trouble.

 

I don't expect anyone on the OL to set the world on fire, I just want solid starters at each position for the whole season. That would be at least a 40% upgrade on what we had last year.

[julian]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I feel very good about our interior. McGovern, Morse, Torrence, Bates, Edwards; you could take multiple versions of that group and turn it into at least a solid starting interior. If any one of those players gets injured we can manage.

 

Tackle is still the big question mark. I weirdly feel more optimistic about Brown than Dawkins right now but hopefully Dawkins has finally gotten himself into shape after a full training camp. More concerning than the starters is the depth. If Brown or Dawkins goes down for more than just a few snaps, which is not a particularly improbable scenario, we are in deep trouble.

 

I don't expect anyone on the OL to set the world on fire, I just want solid starters at each position for the whole season. That would be at least a 40% upgrade on what we had last year.

I’m guessing most teams are in deep trouble if one of their tackles go down for an extended period of time.

 

 You’re lucky if you have a legitimate starter at both tackle spots let alone another in the wings.

[HIT BY SPIKES]

9 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I am hopeful but reserving judgement for real games  The Bills do not have a track record of identifying guards very well.  The paid Feliciano, Saffold and other that ultimately did not work out well.

 

Truth

[Punching Bag]

If title is going to be changed by a MOD the correct spelling of the player's name should be used even if original poster @JerseyBills misspelled it.

It is spelled with 2 n's.  I guess I am sensitive to it since my name is spelled with 2 n's and my name is frequently misspelled at work despite my name being in signature in email messages.

 

 

[RobbRiddick]

11 hours ago, Airseven said:

McGovern stepped in day 1 because he had literally no one to compete with for the spot.

Would you not want him on your Chiefs? 

[Dunkirk Donski]

 

[GunnerBill]

I agree with @BADOLBILZ on centers with one exception... and it is an exception that applied to the Bills in 2018. When you have a rookie or 2nd / 3rd year QB who is struggling with protections (and Josh was really struggling with protections as a rookie) then it makes sense to pay a vet center who can take some of that responsibility on.  I think in the immediate term in 2019 and 2020 that was a huge part of Mitch Morse's value. But as your young QB reaches his second contract it is the first thing I'd shake loose from. 

 

On McGovern, to get back on topic, I think as ever this thread has descended into people on the extremes of either side. There are those who are already hailing him as the solution because a) he isn't Roger Saffold and b) he has slotted in seamlessly in practice and 1 pre-season game. Equally there are those who say "pah it took him 3 years before he became an undisputed starter in Dallas" and "Beane always screws up the oline" who haven't actually engaged in who McGovern is as a player. 

 

There are real reasons to be optimistic about him. I think he is a very good fit for our offense and is potentially a guy who can give some continuity to a LG position that has been a revolving door for as long as I can remember - certainly since Incognito's second spell. But let's just hold our horses on declaring him the saviour until he has proven it in real games on the field. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree with @BADOLBILZ on centers with one exception... and it is an exception that applied to the Bills in 2018. When you have a rookie or 2nd / 3rd year QB who is struggling with protections (and Josh was really struggling with protections as a rookie) then it makes sense to pay a vet center who can take some of that responsibility on.  I think in the immediate term in 2019 and 2020 that was a huge part of Mitch Morse's value. But as your young QB reaches his second contract it is the first thing I'd shake loose from. 

 

On McGovern, to get back on topic, I think as ever this thread has descended into people on the extremes of either side. There are those who are already hailing him as the solution because a) he isn't Roger Saffold and b) he has slotted in seamlessly in practice and 1 pre-season game. Equally there are those who say "pah it took him 3 years before he became an undisputed starter in Dallas" and "Beane always screws up the oline" who haven't actually engaged in who McGovern is as a player. 

 

There are real reasons to be optimistic about him. I think he is a very good fit for our offense and is potentially a guy who can give some continuity to a LG position that has been a revolving door for as long as I can remember - certainly since Incognito's second spell. But let's just hold our horses on declaring him the saviour until he has proven it in real games on the field. 

 

 

Yeah the Bills were a total mess at OL heading into 2019 free agency period and the reality is that in most offseasons the best OL players available in UFA are going to be interior OL.  They needed 4 new OL and given that Beane had botched it so badly to that point I totally understood that decision.  They were absolutely desperate.  And the other thing about Morse at the time was that he was a potentially versatile piece as a center in a tackles body(with tackle experience).    One of the knocks I have on Humphrey is that I don't think he would be as nearly as good of a guard as he is a center.   And given that centers are pretty easy to find that's a quandary for me if I am paying him $15M-$20M.  

 

But in general:

 

Draft tackles

Pay guards in UFA

find centers

 

 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah the Bills were a total mess at OL heading into 2019 free agency period and the reality is that in most offseasons the best OL players available in UFA are going to be interior OL.  They needed 4 new OL and given that Beane had botched it so badly to that point I totally understood that decision.  They were absolutely desperate.  And the other thing about Morse at the time was that he was a potentially versatile piece as a center in a tackles body(with tackle experience).    One of the knocks I have on Humphrey is that I don't think he would be as nearly as good of a guard as he is a center.   And given that centers are pretty easy to find that's a quandary for me if I am paying him $15M-$20M.  

 

But in general:

 

Draft tackles

Pay guards in UFA

find centers

 

Yea and in general I agree with that. I do think I'd make an exception for centers where you have a young QB though. Especially this breed of QBs where the pendulum has swung back towards draft the high ceiling physical specimen rather than the "pro ready" cerebral guy. Sometimes paying a vet center in FA for the first 2/3 years to help that young QB with protections makes sense.

 

The Chiefs won't be there with Humphrey though. They have diverted money from wide receiver to offensive line since the Buccs Superbowl defeat. But as Kelce gets older I'm not sure how sustainable that model is. Their wide receiver situation this year looks like a wing and a prayer.... if Kadarius Toney can become a full time player; or if Skyy Moore breaks out; or if Rashee Rice can have in impact as a rookie; or if Justyn Ross can stay healthy and prove himself..... 

[newcam2012]

15 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm with you on this. One of the biggest problems on our offense was the quick pressure right up the middle on passing plays. Enter McGovern, who has a reputation as big very solid in pass blocking. 

Correct but most football experts say McGovern's run blocking is mediocre to poor. He's not elite. 

 

Sure he's an upgrade and I'm happy about the acquisition. However, let's not get carried away here. 

 

I get the optimism but it's kind of crazy that the Bills oline is a work in progress six years into the Beane regime. By now, the oline should be very solid and only minor tweeks should be made. 

 

As for me, the oline is the key to how far the Bills will go. Not one guy on the line is elite. They must play well as a unit. It's a bit concerning that new guys are starting on the line. How will they gel? Torrence has to develop.  Brown and his back? 

 

Is Kromer overrated? What has he really done to develop Bills players? The oline has been an issue for years under Kromer. I'm not saying he sucks but I fail to see the fruits he's produced. I consistently hear how great he is. Am I missing something? 

 

In short, I do believe the oline has been upgraded. Is that enough? 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by newcam2012

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

The Bills OL is better than the Jets and Phins, and that's nearly a quarter of our games so I'm not so down on it.

[John from Riverside]

As long as the position is nailed down, who cares
 

It looks like they really addressed every position except for tackle this off-season

[BuffaloBillyG]

6 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Correct but most football experts say McGovern's run blocking is mediocre to poor. He's not elite. 

 

Sure he's an upgrade and I'm happy about the acquisition. However, let's not get carried away here. 

 

I get the optimism but it's kind of crazy that the Bills oline is a work in progress six years into the Beane regime. By now, the oline should be very solid and only minor tweeks should be made. 

 

As for me, the oline is the key to how far the Bills will go. Not one guy on the line is elite. They must play well as a unit. It's a bit concerning that new guys are starting on the line. How will they gel? Torrence has to develop.  Brown and his back? 

 

Is Kromer overrated? What has he really done to develop Bills players? The oline has been an issue for years under Kromer. I'm not saying he sucks but I fail to see the fruits he's produced. I consistently hear how great he is. Am I missing something? 

 

In short, I do believe the oline has been upgraded. Is that enough? 

 

 

That's what I have heard as well, however I think you are over analyzing this.

 

We are a pass first team with a HEAVY slant on the pass game. The positive of having a plus pass blocker in that spot outweighs the negative IMO.

 

To compensate for that, we have a whole nother side to the OL. Spencer Brown for all his issues has been a good run blocker. If Torrence wins the RG job is an excellent run blocker. Mitch Morse is very good in the pin and pull blocking scheme. Any guesses what they were practicing early in camp? Pin and pull. You're going to see a lot of runs to the right side of the offense this year. Lean into strength.

[Magox]

16 hours ago, Airseven said:

McGovern stepped in day 1 because he had literally no one to compete with for the spot.

 

Just out of curiosity, 

 

Is this a troll account?

 

 

[Doc]

21 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Correct but most football experts say McGovern's run blocking is mediocre to poor. He's not elite. 

 

Sure he's an upgrade and I'm happy about the acquisition. However, let's not get carried away here. 

 

I get the optimism but it's kind of crazy that the Bills oline is a work in progress six years into the Beane regime. By now, the oline should be very solid and only minor tweeks should be made. 

 

As for me, the oline is the key to how far the Bills will go. Not one guy on the line is elite. They must play well as a unit. It's a bit concerning that new guys are starting on the line. How will they gel? Torrence has to develop.  Brown and his back? 

 

Is Kromer overrated? What has he really done to develop Bills players? The oline has been an issue for years under Kromer. I'm not saying he sucks but I fail to see the fruits he's produced. I consistently hear how great he is. Am I missing something? 

 

In short, I do believe the oline has been upgraded. Is that enough? 

First off, every team has to constantly address the OL. You can be a victim of your own success and as a result find you can’t pay everyone. The Bills have had stability at LT and C for the past 4 years. Second, Kromer just joined the Bills last year. 

[The Frankish Reich]

Everytime I see the name O'Cyrus I have Cyrus Kouandjio PTSD.  

[HIT BY SPIKES]

20 minutes ago, Doc said:

First off, every team has to constantly address the OL. You can be a victim of your own success and as a result find you can’t pay everyone. The Bills have had stability at LT and C for the past 4 years. Second, Kromer just joined the Bills last year. 

 

It is 5 of the 11 positions on O after all.

[I'm Spartacus]

The Teller story is really getting old, time to move on. Do you really think it was Beane's decision to let him go? No...it was the coaching staff that told Beane to get rid of him.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

That's what I have heard as well, however I think you are over analyzing this.

 

We are a pass first team with a HEAVY slant on the pass game. The positive of having a plus pass blocker in that spot outweighs the negative IMO.

 

To compensate for that, we have a whole nother side to the OL. Spencer Brown for all his issues has been a good run blocker. If Torrence wins the RG job is an excellent run blocker. Mitch Morse is very good in the pin and pull blocking scheme. Any guesses what they were practicing early in camp? Pin and pull. You're going to see a lot of runs to the right side of the offense this year. Lean into strength.

That's fair. However, opposing teams will adapt to the Bills tendencies if they constantly run to the right side. 

 

Agree, that McGovern should help a lot in the pass game. That is pretty big in my eyes. 

 

I like the move but I'm not sold that the Bills oline is really good. Improved yes but there's still a lot that needs to be proved. That does include McGovern on a new team and scheme.

 

Also, it makes me a little uneasy that they may be starting a huge rookie on the line with questionable footwork. He seems to be a liability in the pass game. Opposite of McGovern sort of speak. That could be a big deal in a negative way. 

 

Of course the elephant in the room is Brown. He can't stay healthy and when healthy has he been good? Not sure he has. Sure there's potential but it sure seems like a risky move or at the very least an uncomfortable question mark. 

 

It shouldn't take us long to know how good the oline is. The Monday night opener vs the Jets is a very nice test. 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

First off, every team has to constantly address the OL. You can be a victim of your own success and as a result find you can’t pay everyone. The Bills have had stability at LT and C for the past 4 years. Second, Kromer just joined the Bills last year. 

I was including the first stint he did with the Bills in 2015-2016 I believe. 

 

I get what your are saying. It's valid for sure. 

 

I just think the regime has failed to really solidify the oline over the years. I think Beane has had enough time to improve the oline. I think it's fair to say the oline has been problematic for several years now. 

 

This year is a new year and hopefully with better results. I am more encouraged that the oline will be be better than last years. I'm not so sure it's solid enough to beat elite teams in the playoffs. That's a long way away. We will see...

Edited August 17, 2023 by newcam2012

[BuffaloBillyG]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That's fair. However, opposing teams will adapt to the Bills tendencies if they constantly run to the right side. 

 

Agree, that McGovern should help a lot in the pass game. That is pretty big in my eyes. 

 

I like the move but I'm not sold that the Bills oline is really good. Improved yes but there's still a lot that needs to be proved. That does include McGovern on a new team and scheme.

 

Also, it makes me a little uneasy that they may be starting a huge rookie on the line with questionable footwork. He seems to be a liability in the pass game. Opposite of McGovern sort of speak. That could be a big deal in a negative way. 

 

Of course the elephant in the room is Brown. He can't stay healthy and when healthy has he been good? Not sure he has. Sure there's potential but it sure seems like a risky move or at the very least an uncomfortable question mark. 

 

It shouldn't take us long to know how good the oline is. The Monday night opener vs the Jets is a very nice test. 

Fair points. However, most teams have a side they predominantly run to...and for the most part it's traditionally been right side of offense. Teams can overload that side...just takes one Allen fake right scramble left to keep that honest. Or counter left to Cook who can burn them on that.

 

I do think calling a guy that didn't surrender a sack his entire college career a liability in the pass game is a bit overzealous. Does he have some room to grow and learn? Sure. But he's hardly inept in that spot at pass blocking. Brown is the only potential liability I see in pass pro on the line. 

 

Agree, the Jets will be an excellent test early. I'm actually glad we get them week 1. 

[JerseyBills]

18 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Ya but McGovern got 3 years , usually they'd go with 1 year, so to me that shows they believe in him long term and as I said,  his potential is sky high

True I forgot they were 3 yrs but Feliciano only got 4 mil guaranteed,  Spain got 5 

McGovern got 11 guaranteed.. so sizable difference in commitment 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I was including the first stint he did with the Bills in 2015-2016 I believe. 

 

 

Kromer's first stint here the Bills were a dominant run blocking offensive line. And it wasn't filled with superstar talent. John Miller, Jordan Mills were the right side combo. 

 

They did have some issues in pass pro but that was a well functioning offensive line.

[DC Greg]

Hard to judge much of anything for me until they start playing real football on 9/11. They have a tough test week 1. We'll know a lot more about whether the line has improved then.

[boyst]

19 hours ago, Airseven said:

McGovern stepped in day 1 because he had literally no one to compete with for the spot.

He would have beat mail-it-in back-9 Saffold, though. 

[DJB]

17 hours ago, MJS said:

But they didn't need a center.

 

But we need good players however 

[Billl]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd surely rather not pay a center big money but drafting centers or RB's in the first two rounds would just not be part of my process.    The juice isn't worth the squeeze.   Humphrey is an outstanding center but you don't need one of those to win.   The other 4 OL positions are more impactful in the NFL today.

 

And no I'm not contradicting myself saying you neither pay RB's or Centers top money nor draft them early.    You do NEITHER.   You can find good enough versions of players at those positions across the board or cheap in UFA.   If you can't,  you just aren't a good at evaluating personnel as an organization.

 

Positional value is an important consideration, but we aren't talking about top ten picks here.  Humphrey was taken at pick 63.  Buffalo could have had him at pick 61.  If you can get any starter at that point, it's a win.  If that starter is elite from day 1, it's a home run.  I'm curious who you think would have been a better pick at 61 if you had a redo.

 

Given that Jason Kelce is one of the top paid Centers and Creed was taken in the second round, I'm not sure there is much merit in the idea that allocating resources to the position means your organization can't evaluate talent. 

[Aussie Joe]

7 hours ago, Magox said:

 

Just out of curiosity, 

 

Is this a troll account?

 

 

Airseven is our resident Bengals fan

[klos63]

On 8/16/2023 at 2:26 PM, Doc said:

 

Sure they were, if he weren't any good.

3 year, $22 million contract. He was starting from day 1

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

Positional value is an important consideration, but we aren't talking about top ten picks here.  Humphrey was taken at pick 63.  Buffalo could have had him at pick 61.  If you can get any starter at that point, it's a win.  If that starter is elite from day 1, it's a home run.  I'm curious who you think would have been a better pick at 61 if you had a redo.

 

Given that Jason Kelce is one of the top paid Centers and Creed was taken in the second round, I'm not sure there is much merit in the idea that allocating resources to the position means your organization can't evaluate talent. 

 

First of all......you are conflating two concepts with your Jason Kelce point.   My point is you should be able find a SB winning quality center all over the draft or cheap enough in UFA.   If the need arises and you just can't find an answer outside of drafting one in the first two rounds.......then you might not be good at personnel.   If you just voluntarily choose to go that route like, for instance, Philly(Kelce), Cinci(Price), Dallas(Frederick), Indy(Kelly) or KC(Humphrey)........then hey, that's just a choice.  

 

But once you take one in the first two rounds it should be assumed that they will be good because taking non-premium positions early is picking low hanging fruit.

 

So for perspective on my opinion........I've been talking about the need to use early round picks on "premium" positions on TSW for over 20 years.   Since back when a literal majority of NFL fans still thought drafting a RB in round 1 was one of the better uses of a first.  

 

To give a guide to that end......I used a positional grade scale that started with a QB at 10 and then the next number was pass rusher1/LT at 4.  

 

Spoiler alert in case I re-issue it:  centers are very close to a dime-a-dozen on said scale.

 

And while positions like WR and CB have moved around in the hierarchy.......centers have been gradually losing even more ground wrt positional value as the focus of the game has continued to move from the center of the field outward.

 

Because ultimately, aside from QB,  the plays that decide games are usually made by what I call "edge and island" players.   WR/LT/PassRush/CB.

 

For me, if there is going to be an exception to those positions drafted in the first 2 rounds then they have to be a guy who lines up on the LOS and catches passes.

 

If you don't want to have a "process" and want to instead pick and choose when to select RB's, C's, MLB's, Nickel CB's or even safeties in the first 2 rounds........then have at it.  I just think that's a slippery slope.

 

I suspect that in the coming years.........after a few of these wannabe-Dave-Gettleman type GM's get fired for using early picks on non-premo positions because they don't realize that early round picks are also 8 figure value chips.........that personnel people will all be assigning a dollar value to those picks.

 

IMO a 1st round pick should be used on a player who has a $20M-$30M ceiling that the drafting team should have zero hesitation about allocating that $ to if the player meets or exceeds said expected ceiling.

 

 2nd rounder?   $15M+ and rising.

 

The strikes against Humphrey are that:

 

A) He plays the position on offense which has the second most help afforded to it (behind RB).

 

B) It has to be a tough decision for the Chiefs if Humphrey wants open market money or close to it.   They've proven multiple times now how reticent they are to have top dollar invested in a center since Reid arrived there. 

 

And if you think I am picking on Humphrey.........one of the more compelling arguments in favor of what I am saying was the 2009 Bills drafting an pro bowl center in round 1(Eric Wood) and a "highest paid guard in the league"(Andy Levitre) and All Pro safety(Jairus Byrd) in round 2.    When it came time for second contracts........the Bills weren't in any cap bind.........but they couldn't justify paying a guard or safety top money.    I predicted it when they drafted them and I was dead on.   It is what it is with those positions.

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Breakout Squad]

On 8/16/2023 at 5:05 PM, Matt_In_NH said:

I am hopeful but reserving judgement for real games  The Bills do not have a track record of identifying guards very well.  The paid Feliciano, Saffold and other that ultimately did not work out well.

I’m a little hesitant about McGovern because Cowboy fans weren’t upset seeing him leave. The Bills threw him a lot of money… he better be a solid LG

[Billl]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Because ultimately, aside from QB,  the plays that decide games are usually made by what I call "edge and island" players.   WR/LT/PassRush/CB.

 

For me, if there is going to be an exception to those positions drafted in the first 2 rounds then they have to be a guy who lines up on the LOS and catches passes.

So your entire post was great and I’d like to dive into it a bit more just because I like talking football, but I found this part to be funny (and this is tongue in cheek)…

 

You’re saying most big plays that aren’t made by QBs are made by either WRs, Tackles, Pass Rushers, or Corners…except for when they’re made by TEs.  Paging  @Captain Obvious.

Edited August 18, 2023 by Billl

[Ralonzo]

I'd like to see more of 66 but I gotta say, I rewatched the Colts game, focused on the line play and rewatched most plays a time or two to digest what was going on, and the guy I had least notice of, good or bad, was 66. For the two series he was in, he just did his job. He didn't fail to do his job, nor go over the top accomplishing his task. He just got it done, in retrospect. Of the 5 positions on the line, he made me worry the least, from the film. How much does that count for, vs Turnstile Saffold?