Rewatching the Week 3 Dolphins game

[buffblue]

Mostly known for the insane heat the game featured, I decided to take a closer look as the 2023 season fast approaches. There has been much talk about McD taking over the defensive playcalling this year and how he will hopefully improve on Frazier's soft tendencies. I don't know how this will turn out, but the Week 3 game against the Dolphins revealed yet another example of Leslie playing it conservative in crunch time.

 

The situation: Miami faces a 3rd and 22 from around midfield with the Bills leading by 3 early in the 4th. Buffalo had aggressively stuffed the Dolphins to put them in what should have been a hopeless situation to convert. But rather than continuing to bring the heat against a subpar Miami OL (and with an obviously concussed Tua), Frazier elects to run a 3 man rush and our decimated secondary (missing all 4 nominal starters) gives up an easy bomb to Waddle inside the 5 resulting in the Dolphins taking the lead.

 

We all have our complaints as fans, many of them right and plenty wrong. But one thing I am optimistic about going into the 2023 season is the possibility of the Bills becoming an attacking defense. I'm OK with them giving up more yards and even a few more PPG if we can make more impact plays defensively. With Josh in his prime, we should always have an above average scoring offense. The complementary aspect of the game and making a few more critical, game changing plays each Sunday could pay far more dividends than the what the traditional statistical rankings imply.

[mrags]

Really hope you’re right. But it’s hard to argue the fact that Frazier was the DC for years. Even after the .13 debacle they stuck with him. There’s more proof out there that McDermott was not only accepting of it, that it’s his in the first place. We’ve all been over this before though and it won’t go anywhere except multiple people arguing with each other. Fear not, just about every thread right now will be shelved in just 2 days as camp starts. 

[buffblue]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Really hope you’re right. But it’s hard to argue the fact that Frazier was the DC for years. Even after the .13 debacle they stuck with him. There’s more proof out there that McDermott was not only accepting of it, that it’s his in the first place. We’ve all been over this before though and it won’t go anywhere except multiple people arguing with each other. Fear not, just about every thread right now will be shelved in just 2 days as 

Perhaps it's a case of preseason optimism as you allude to. This year will tell the tale one way or the other. I keep hoping (maybe foolishly) that the McD who was mentored by Jim Johnson in Philly will be the guy that at least somewhat shows up now that he's back to calling plays

[GoBills808]

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

[buffblue]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

I acknowledged that in the OP. When your secondary is severely shorthanded and facing a team with arguably the fastest pair of WR's but a weak OL in a 3rd and 22 spot, that situation is screaming to send the house

[Richard Noggin]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

 

But all the MORE REASON TO ATTACK and make their jobs easier/more defined. When you've got elite talent on the field, you can afford to let your guys just beat their guys straight up. But when you're fielding backups and exhausted starters, it makes sense to help them out a little. 

 

It's not about the results as much as it's about the tactics, in a discussion like this.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Richard Noggin

[mrags]

10 minutes ago, buffblue said:

Perhaps it's a case of preseason optimism as you allude to. This year will tell the tale one way or the other. I keep hoping (maybe foolishly) that the McD who was mentored by Jim Johnson in Philly will be the guy that at least somewhat shows up now that he's back to calling plays

Really hope your right. For all Bills fans. If your wrong we’ll finish the season just like the last few and be extremely disappointed . 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, buffblue said:

I acknowledged that in the OP. When your secondary is severely shorthanded and facing a team with arguably the fastest pair of WR's but a weak OL in a 3rd and 22 spot, that situation is screaming to send the house

I don't know if blitzing there is right or not tbh

 

I do know they are terrified of Tyreek Hill and it shows up in bad spots

[buffblue]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if blitzing there is right or not tbh

 

I do know they are terrified of Tyreek Hill and it shows up in bad spots

I am terrified of Tyreek Hill even if I am fielding my entire starting defensive backfield. However, when you are missing every starter on your back end what choice do you have but to be aggressive against a team with piss poor pass blocking?

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if blitzing there is right or not tbh

 

I do know they are terrified of Tyreek Hill and it shows up in bad spots

 

They singled him with White in the RZ later in the season and got burned (guess you could argue the safety should have been there to disrupt the inside leverage Hill chose on that play, but like all things we're just fans who don't really know who to blame or congratulate for any single play). 

[buffblue]

1 minute ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

They singled him with White in the RZ later in the season and got burned (guess you could argue the safety should have been there to disrupt the inside leverage Hill chose on that play, but like all things we're just fans who don't really know who to blame or congratulate for any single play). 

This is correct but I will gladly let Tre go one on one with Hill this season, especially with Hyde/Poyer back in the fold. I don't think White is anywhere near washed. I also think the additions of Ford, Rapp, and Floyd will give the Bills a better ability to keep fresh and match up against different personnel groupings

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, buffblue said:

I am terrified of Tyreek Hill even if I am fielding my entire starting defensive backfield. However, when you are missing every starter on your back end what choice do you have but to be aggressive against a team with piss poor pass blocking?

I don't know, I think if you get a sack or incompletion there it's great... equally if you leave Damar Hamlin in man w Tyreek Hill it might turn out bad😂😂

[buffblue]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know, I think if you get a sack or incompletion there it's great... equally if you leave Damar Hamlin in man w Tyreek Hill it might turn out bad😂😂

Hey now, too soon 

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

They singled him with White in the RZ later in the season and got burned (guess you could argue the safety should have been there to disrupt the inside leverage Hill chose on that play, but like all things we're just fans who don't really know who to blame or congratulate for any single play). 

What I'm trying to say is I don't think this was necessarily the spot I would expect them to deviate philosophically 

[PBF81]

It's one thing to say "attacking defense," it's another to have the personnel to run it effectively w/o undue risks.  

 

Do we have the pass-rushers to be able to do that w/o having to blitz regularly.  Remains to be seen, but unless we get some consistent pass-rushers, it remains to be seen.  No one should be thinking that Miller will return to what he was at 34 and coming off that injury, and who knows when.  Rousseau was very inconsistent and came out strong in his first four games last season but then disappeared.  Floyd comes in at 31 which should help.  

 

I'm not sure we have the talent to attack as such effectively.  

 

 

[buffblue]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Do we have the pass-rushers to be able to do that w/o having to blitz regularly

I think we might if we employ a versatile rush scheme that doesn't rely on a single guy to put heat on the qb. 

 

Also, one thing not to overlook is the possibility of the MLB pressure. As good as Edmunds could be he was a relatively ineffective blitzer. I think one of the replacements could be utilized in a highly aggressive role

[LABILLBACKER]

53 minutes ago, buffblue said:

I acknowledged that in the OP. When your secondary is severely shorthanded and facing a team with arguably the fastest pair of WR's but a weak OL in a 3rd and 22 spot, that situation is screaming to send the house

Yup....just like with :13 we should've sent the house and man cover the middle.  But we did the complete opposite. 

[QB Bills]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yup....just like with :13 we should've sent the house and man cover the middle.  But we did the complete opposite. 

That is actually the opposite of what they should have done. They shouldn't have rushed anyone. Eleven guys drop back and the game is over. Simple situational football that McDermott totally botched.

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, buffblue said:

Mostly known for the insane heat the game featured, I decided to take a closer look as the 2023 season fast approaches. There has been much talk about McD taking over the defensive playcalling this year and how he will hopefully improve on Frazier's soft tendencies. I don't know how this will turn out, but the Week 3 game against the Dolphins revealed yet another example of Leslie playing it conservative in crunch time.

 

The situation: Miami faces a 3rd and 22 from around midfield with the Bills leading by 3 early in the 4th. Buffalo had aggressively stuffed the Dolphins to put them in what should have been a hopeless situation to convert. But rather than continuing to bring the heat against a subpar Miami OL (and with an obviously concussed Tua), Frazier elects to run a 3 man rush and our decimated secondary (missing all 4 nominal starters) gives up an easy bomb to Waddle inside the 5 resulting in the Dolphins taking the lead.

 

We all have our complaints as fans, many of them right and plenty wrong. But one thing I am optimistic about going into the 2023 season is the possibility of the Bills becoming an attacking defense. I'm OK with them giving up more yards and even a few more PPG if we can make more impact plays defensively. With Josh in his prime, we should always have an above average scoring offense. The complementary aspect of the game and making a few more critical, game changing plays each Sunday could pay far more dividends than the what the traditional statistical rankings imply.

Let me preface this by saying that I actually like aggressive defenses more I love the wide  nine that we ran, and I loved Wade Phillips defenses
 

However

 

Aggressive teams also get gashed if McDermott employees a far more aggressive scheme be prepared for that every once in a while, they’re going to convert

 

And Leslie Frazier’s defense a third and forever is all about playing the percentages so he may not have been wrong there sucks because you want your defense to dominate everyone does

Edited July 24, 2023 by John from Riverside

[GETTOTHE50]

You blitz on third long specifically so those long routes don’t develop. It’s better to try to make tackles on a dump off from pressure than it is to allow a qb to sit back there and take his time to make his reads and calculate his shot. 

[Charles Romes]

Anything to increase the number of stops on Mahomes/Burrow to more than 1 per half. 

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

Yeah.  Most teams won't bring a blitz with Waddle and Hill on 3rd and 22.  Especially when we had that rookie CB practice squad player in who's name escapes me.  Just terrible execution from an inexperienced secondary.  If I remember that play correctly the Dolphins only had three WR's running down the field as their TE chipped Miller and their RB stayed in to pass protect.  Three against eight shouldn't lead to a conversion on 3rd and 22.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

Fraizer's defenses consistently played poorly when the playoffs came around. His defensive scheme just wasn't good for upper tier teams. 

3 hours ago, mrags said:

Really hope your right. For all Bills fans. If your wrong we’ll finish the season just like the last few and be extremely disappointed . 

Yep and most fans will still think McD walks on water. 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

It's one thing to say "attacking defense," it's another to have the personnel to run it effectively w/o undue risks.  

 

Do we have the pass-rushers to be able to do that w/o having to blitz regularly.  Remains to be seen, but unless we get some consistent pass-rushers, it remains to be seen.  No one should be thinking that Miller will return to what he was at 34 and coming off that injury, and who knows when.  Rousseau was very inconsistent and came out strong in his first four games last season but then disappeared.  Floyd comes in at 31 which should help.  

 

I'm not sure we have the talent to attack as such effectively.  

 

 

Add on the defense looks to be weaker at the LB position with Edmunds gone and a young unproven replacement. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

You blitz on third long specifically so those long routes don’t develop. It’s better to try to make tackles on a dump off from pressure than it is to allow a qb to sit back there and take his time to make his reads and calculate his shot. 

The Ravens tried that the week before that game and got burned multiple times in the 4th quarter.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, buffblue said:

I acknowledged that in the OP. When your secondary is severely shorthanded and facing a team with arguably the fastest pair of WR's but a weak OL in a 3rd and 22 spot, that situation is screaming to send the house

 

See I totally disagree with that. Which is fine, it's just a different way of looking at football and at playcalling. I would not send the house when I have a team down 3rd and 22 and I know I have two vastly inexperienced safeties. I'd try and protect them. Especially when the Bills defense is NOt a good blitzing defense. You go back and think about back breaking plays over the past two seasons and so many of them come when the Bills have tried to blitz. 

 

The playcall didn't work, so it's easy to second guess it, and I'm not saying he got the exact call right, but I am saying I think blitzing there would have been a mistake. 

[PrimeTime101]

5 hours ago, mrags said:

Really hope you’re right. But it’s hard to argue the fact that Frazier was the DC for years. Even after the .13 debacle they stuck with him. There’s more proof out there that McDermott was not only accepting of it, that it’s his in the first place. We’ve all been over this before though and it won’t go anywhere except multiple people arguing with each other. Fear not, just about every thread right now will be shelved in just 2 days as camp starts. 

You can have the best playbook in the freaking game but if you are not using it right... what does it matter? Frazier was not using it right. How much of a hand McD had in the playbook is meaningless compared to play by play calling. There is a reason MCD was well respected on the defensive side of the ball. I trust that.

[mrags]

10 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

You can have the best playbook in the freaking game but if you are not using it right... what does it matter? Frazier was not using it right. How much of a hand McD had in the playbook is meaningless compared to play by play calling. There is a reason MCD was well respected on the defensive side of the ball. I trust that.

Well. I guess you can say he was a terrible delegator then. Because if I was a well respected defensive minded coach and my DC continually screwed up play calling and I didn’t fire him, the failure would be on me would it not? End of the day he held on to Frazier way too long if Frazier was the problem. All fingers point to McDermott being perfectly fine with what Frazier was doing. Screwed up a huge lead in the Texans game. walked all over against the Chiefs in the first playoff loss to them. .13 seconds. Than this debacle against the Bengals.  End of the day it’s McDermotts team. 

[PrimeTime101]

11 minutes ago, mrags said:

Well. I guess you can say he was a terrible delegator then. Because if I was a well respected defensive minded coach and my DC continually screwed up play calling and I didn’t fire him, the failure would be on me would it not? End of the day he held on to Frazier way too long if Frazier was the problem. All fingers point to McDermott being perfectly fine with what Frazier was doing. Screwed up a huge lead in the Texans game. walked all over against the Chiefs in the first playoff loss to them. .13 seconds. Than this debacle against the Bengals.  End of the day it’s McDermotts team. 

Now this narrative i 100% agree with.  HC is accountable for everything. I get that. 

[buffblue]

For those who feel sending an extra rusher would have been unwise due to inexperience, would you at least agree that sending 3 was a poor decision in hindsight and completely futile? 

Edited July 24, 2023 by buffblue

[Bill from NYC]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

I agree 100% with @mrrags. It isn't very tough to blame McDermott.

[boyst]

mcdermott is more aggressive than frazier was and his habits and tendencies are proof. in carolina he never had stellar DL and was effective.

[buffblue]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

mcdermott is more aggressive than frazier was and his habits and tendencies are proof. in carolina he never had stellar DL and was effective.

That's what gives me a bit of hope. I followed the Panthers pretty closely here in Charlotte during McD's tenure and they were never as timid as the defense has been run in Buffalo

[SectionC3]

7 hours ago, mrags said:

Really hope you’re right. But it’s hard to argue the fact that Frazier was the DC for years. Even after the .13 debacle they stuck with him. There’s more proof out there that McDermott was not only accepting of it, that it’s his in the first place. We’ve all been over this before though and it won’t go anywhere except multiple people arguing with each other. Fear not, just about every thread right now will be shelved in just 2 days as camp starts. 

The more I think about it, the more I think McD stuck with Frazier after 13 seconds because he didn't want to have three new coordinators last year.  Daboll left by choice, Farwell more or less had to go, and then there was Frazier. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I totally disagree with that. Which is fine, it's just a different way of looking at football and at playcalling. I would not send the house when I have a team down 3rd and 22 and I know I have two vastly inexperienced safeties. I'd try and protect them. Especially when the Bills defense is NOt a good blitzing defense. You go back and think about back breaking plays over the past two seasons and so many of them come when the Bills have tried to blitz. 

 

The playcall didn't work, so it's easy to second guess it, and I'm not saying he got the exact call right, but I am saying I think blitzing there would have been a mistake. 

I get that train of thought. It certainly is valid. 

 

My thinking is you just shouldn't allow a QB all day to throw in that situation. Pressure the QB and jam the WRs isn't a terrible strategy. However, it's not what the Bills do often or excell at. I suspect this is why teams are more successful on their and long. I remember joking with my brother saying I would have have the Bills D in a third and short vs long. 

 

The real issue is two fold here. As stated the Bills are not an effective blitzing team. Also, they lack a consistent pass rush even in 3rd and long situations. Both weaknesses are not optimal. It's really a compliment to the coaches that statistically they are a top defense with such deficiencies. 

 

I'm certainly hoping McD's D will improve on third and long. 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

JaQuan Johnson got caught flat footed. It’s Waddle, what was he thinking? You can’t run with Waddle Johnson.

 

Sending 4 wouldn’t have made any difference. They played Cover 2. Quarters should’ve been the coverage. Not sure why they played cover 2 there. It’s like they guessed Miami would just throw a short pass for YAC.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I totally disagree with that. Which is fine, it's just a different way of looking at football and at playcalling. I would not send the house when I have a team down 3rd and 22 and I know I have two vastly inexperienced safeties. I'd try and protect them. Especially when the Bills defense is NOt a good blitzing defense. You go back and think about back breaking plays over the past two seasons and so many of them come when the Bills have tried to blitz. 

 

The playcall didn't work, so it's easy to second guess it, and I'm not saying he got the exact call right, but I am saying I think blitzing there would have been a mistake. 

Not to mention the QB has a noodle arm and can't get the ball anywhere the sticks in that scenario fast.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 hours ago, buffblue said:

This is correct but I will gladly let Tre go one on one with Hill this season, especially with Hyde/Poyer back in the fold. I don't think White is anywhere near washed. I also think the additions of Ford, Rapp, and Floyd will give the Bills a better ability to keep fresh and match up against different personnel groupings

Lol. Tre even in his prime could not handle Hill one on one. Not even a knock on Tre. There are so few CBs that can play man coverage at an elite level.  Tre was an elite zone corner. He is not and never was an elite man cover corner. Unfortunately I'm afraid Sauce may be one of those guys and Diggs will have to face him twice a year.

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, buffblue said:

I think we might if we employ a versatile rush scheme that doesn't rely on a single guy to put heat on the qb. 

 

Also, one thing not to overlook is the possibility of the MLB pressure. As good as Edmunds could be he was a relatively ineffective blitzer. I think one of the replacements could be utilized in a highly aggressive role

 

Well yeah, of course, I'm not even sure we have that ability to do it effectively.  

 

And blitzing the MLB, a good OC on the other side, and seasoned QBs of which we play a lot this season, can pick that apart too.  

 

We'll see soon.  

 

LB unit seems so weak, weakest that I can recall.  

 

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by PBF81

[mabden]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

 

That's why you help out your inexperienced and not as talented backfield with a pass rush.

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Add on the defense looks to be weaker at the LB position with Edmunds gone and a young unproven replacement. 

 

MUCH weaker.

 

IMO this is going to be a serious lesson in how the grass isn't always greener ...

 

... and Beane's management aside.  

 

 

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Yeah.  Most teams won't bring a blitz with Waddle and Hill on 3rd and 22.  Especially when we had that rookie CB practice squad player in who's name escapes me.  Just terrible execution from an inexperienced secondary.  If I remember that play correctly the Dolphins only had three WR's running down the field as their TE chipped Miller and their RB stayed in to pass protect.  Three against eight shouldn't lead to a conversion on 3rd and 22.

 

A lot of things shouldn't be happening against a regular season #1 or #2 ranked Defenses in the playoffs.