Good read on Trent Sherfield

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

The term “improvement” is a reach. Considering neither of them have accomplished what McKenzie has. Again. We’re basing how the WR group will look against last year. 

Isiah McKenzie had 42 catches, 442 yards and 4 TD’s last year.

 

Harty was injured last year so but in 2021, he had 36 catches, 570 yards and 3 TD’s.

 

You’re right.  6 more catches and 130 less receiving yards and 1 more TD is way too lofty expectations to match McKenzie.  
 

McKenzie had Josh Allen throwing to him and Harty had Jameis Winston throwing to him.  Which shouldn’t make a difference because Winston is just as good as Allen.

2 hours ago, BananaB said:

to be honest, I don’t think everyone knows this. Seems to be a good number of people that believe he was the answer we were looking for. Atleast that’s the way it seemed to me right after free agency

Knox, Kincaid, Diggs and Davis will all get thrown to more.  Probably Shakir too.  
 

I think people viewed Harty as the speed guy and not the answer guy.

[akcash]

I feel really confident in this guy to step in if Gabe or Diggs went down.

[PBF81]

45 minutes ago, Einstein said:

He's a low level crappy FA signing. If he plays any better than that, it's a humongous success. While I don't see it happening, it wouldn't shock me if he were cut in training camp. Especially with us likely to run more 2 TE sets this year.

 

If Sherfield makes the team, just think about what that meant for all of the other prospects after Harty and Shorter, many of whom people here are talking about what great pick-ups they were, even if only as 5th/6th WRs.    

 

This time of year people seem to assume that the final roster is for 65.  

 

Three teams in five seasons, below-average statistical performance, his third one-year stint in a row, ... LOL   ... He's averaged 10.8 YPG in his five seasons with a best of 24.5 last season, absolutely horrific performance in the 3rd and 4th Qs last season, and only one decent (4/63/1) game against any passing D ranked higher than 16th. (Cleveland)  

 

BTW, the closest WR behind him at Miami had only 12 catches, Cedric Wilson, and without looking no one in our forum can name another WR on Miami last season.  IOW, he likely got what he got because there was no competition for him as a 3/4 WR.  

 

I have no idea why anyone would argue even slightly in favor of Sherfield.  Even if he makes the team I'd be stunned if he has even 10 catches.  

 

 

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I know you didn't, don't get spun up, but you did make that comment comparing him to Kumerow, which yeah, is about right, LOL.  But when he signed most people here were much bigger on him than I'm reading in this thread.  It's interesting how the subsequent drafting of Kincaid has lowered the rhetoric on Sherfield.  

 

Kumerow's nothing either, he won't be around come fall, he was another nothing signing just like Sherfield.  Is he even still on the roster?  I've never touted him, only others here did last and when we signed him.  Not sure why the comparison there.  As to Kumerow, I have no idea how one even compares a WR that has 7 catches in three seasons.  

 

I also contrasted Sherfield to McKenzie whom no one here thinks is good, and he still falls short of McKenzie as pointed out.  Why not compare him to McK then?  

 

As to the math, it's easy to calculate, 5th grade math,you can't be serious about that.  That's exactly where I got the data, it's my go-to data site although there are others also depending upon categories, some do it better than others.  For raw data nothing beats pfr.  What, you can only evaluate what's spoon-fed you?  You can't possibly be serious there.  But since you mention 3rd-down-conversion rate, let's talk about that, and a few others. 

 

pfr provides all the data needed for anyone to calculate pretty much anything, but  we can use straight splits there and simple math (division of two simple numbers) to draw our comps.  

 

To start, and go look for yourself, but did you notice Sherfield's 2nd-H numbers last season?  ... contrasted with is 1st-Half numbers that is?  If you had, you should have noticed that his 3rd & 4th Q stats plummet into next to worthlessness.  In short, he sucks in the 2nd halves of games.  Why, do you think, that may be?   

 

On 3rd-downs last season all 13 of McKenzie's catches went for 1st-Downs, and 13 of 19 targets, with a 68.4% catch%.

 

In contrast, Sherfield had the same 19 targets, only 9 receptions, and 7 went for 1st-Downs, with a 47.4% catch%.  

 

McKenzie was a subpar WR and wasn't good enough for us.  I fail to see how Sherfield is any better than a WR we just cast off when his performance(s) don't even match McK's.  

 

You can be right, I really don't care, but I simply fail to see how Sherfield makes the team at this point, his contract is nowhere near suggestive that he's beyond getting cut, and since Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, and now Shorter and a few others, not to mention Kincaid whom most seem to believe that he'll more fill a Slot-WR role than that of TE, and Sherfield's fighting with all the others to make it as a 6th WR and/or STs player.  I mean honestly, if someone can't beat out Sherfield ... 

 

Sure, great story, but until we sign players to do Traveler's MOTY documentaries, ... 

 

I'm not quite sure what there is to argue about there, which is essentially all I said earlier.   That's all.  

 

 

I’ve said my peace on all of this.  Replying is a monumental waste of my time and yours if you were to read it.  
 

we’ll just have to wait and see.  I think our passing game is going to be much improved and adding pieces like Harty and Sherfield will help as they are both upgrades over the incumbents that we let loose, Mckenzie and Kumerow.  You disagree.  
 

agree to disagree. 

[Meatloaf63]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If Sherfield makes the team, just think about what that meant for all of the other prospects after Harty and Shorter, many of whom people here are talking about what great pick-ups they were, even if only as 5th/6th WRs.    

 

This time of year people seem to assume that the final roster is for 65.  

 

Three teams in five seasons, below-average statistical performance, his third one-year stint in a row, ... LOL   ... He's averaged 10.8 YPG in his five seasons with a best of 24.5 last season, absolutely horrific performance in the 3rd and 4th Qs last season, and only one decent (4/63/1) game against any passing D ranked higher than 16th. (Cleveland)  

 

BTW, the closest WR behind him at Miami had only 12 catches, Cedric Wilson, and without looking no one in our forum can name another WR on Miami last season.  IOW, he likely got what he got because there was no competition for him as a 3/4 WR.  

 

I have no idea why anyone would argue even slightly in favor of Sherfield.  Even if he makes the team I'd be stunned if he has even 10 catches.  

 

 

You write awfully long posts to say very little🤦‍♂️

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Knox, Kincaid, Diggs and Davis will all get thrown to more.  Probably Shakir too.  
 

I think people viewed Harty as the speed guy and not the answer guy.

 

They're really talking Shorter up too.  

 

Shakir I think will be a solid mid-tier WR.  We'll see.  

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

They're really talking Shorter up too.  

 

Shakir I think will be a solid mid-tier WR.  We'll see.  

 

 

Its a Bills message board, a lot of players get talked up after the draft.

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Its a Bills message board, a lot of players get talked up after the draft.

 

Exactly, and to the point where there's x number of roster spots, and including free agents signed well before the draft, but if one believed all of the talking up then you'd think that there were 2x number of roster spots.  

 

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by PBF81

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Here's the thing, if Sherfield is all that, then how come he's averaged barely over 10 yards-per-game?  

 

Kumerow's not much either, but his TD and 1D conversion rates are better than Shefield's.  

 

See my post above.  

 

 

 

Well, if you read those pieces on Sherfield, it's pretty obvious to me why we signed him, and it has less to do with his on-field performance and lot more to do with his life philosophy in relation to McD.  

 

This is a business, and McD's preferences for character with a religious touch is fine as a tiebreaker, but it shouldn't factor in otherwise, but it does.  

 

We're not a church team.  

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure Beane signed Sherfield, not McD.

 

And I doubt if religion is something McD pays close attention to.  McD is the coach of a football team.  His goal is to win on the gridiron.   Not establish a church choir.  

 

Sherfield was signed because he has some talent and we didn't have much depth last year.  

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

The term “improvement” is a reach. Considering neither of them have accomplished what McKenzie has. Again. We’re basing how the WR group will look against last year. 

I don’t think you can compare them the same because they do different things for your team
 

McKenzie was a big play guy at times who was underwhelming most of the time

 

Sherfield is a blocking wide receiver. He’s got good size appears to have good hands is not slow.

 

He played behind two very good wide, receivers in Miami, and was considered their third wide receiver

 

I’m not saying he’s going to have 1000 yards or anything but whenever you see one of our running backs go for a huge run, don’t be surprised if it was a Sherfield it was blocking for it

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm pretty sure Beane signed Sherfield, not McD.

 

And I doubt if religion is something McD pays close attention to.  McD is the coach of a football team.  His goal is to win on the gridiron.   Not establish a church choir.  

 

Sherfield was signed because he has some talent and we didn't have much depth last year.  

 

Why he was signed isn't really germane to my comments. 

 

As to your statement about McD, LOL, OK.  

 

Otherwise, you're suggesting that Beane simply signs players in a vacuum without any input from McD.  OK   I won't argue.  

 

 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

If Sherfield makes the team, just think about what that meant for all of the other prospects after Harty and Shorter, many of whom people here are talking about what great pick-ups they were, even if only as 5th/6th WRs.    

 

This time of year people seem to assume that the final roster is for 65.  

 

Three teams in five seasons, below-average statistical performance, his third one-year stint in a row, ... LOL   ... He's averaged 10.8 YPG in his five seasons with a best of 24.5 last season, absolutely horrific performance in the 3rd and 4th Qs last season, and only one decent (4/63/1) game against any passing D ranked higher than 16th. (Cleveland)  

 

BTW, the closest WR behind him at Miami had only 12 catches, Cedric Wilson, and without looking no one in our forum can name another WR on Miami last season.  IOW, he likely got what he got because there was no competition for him as a 3/4 WR.  

 

I have no idea why anyone would argue even slightly in favor of Sherfield.  Even if he makes the team I'd be stunned if he has even 10 catches.  

 

 

 

Bingo.

[DCofNC]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I have continuously told people this guy is better than people think all off-season.  His story going back to SF is fascinating, and while I am hoping for a Davis bounce back season, Sherfield for me is someone who can push Davis for reps and targets if he doesn't and is more of the same last year.  

 

To be totally honest, if it was a battle for WR2 between Sherfield and last years version of Davis, my view would be that Sherfield is capable of winning that battle.  

 

I am not suggesting Sherfield enters week 1 as WR2 or anything, just saying that he is good insurance IMHO if Davis struggles from last year persist again this season.

If he gets used, I think he could well be the biggest value of this FA period for the Bills.  He was actually very good w Miami.  If Davis can’t step up, he may get pushed out.

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

They're really talking Shorter up too.  

 

Shakir I think will be a solid mid-tier WR.  We'll see.  

 

 

Shorter couldn’t do jack crap in college as an absolute physical freak, to think he’s going to step up the NFL and be anything more than a ST gunner is a joke.

[DCofNC]

4 hours ago, mrags said:

The term “improvement” is a reach. Considering neither of them have accomplished what McKenzie has. Again. We’re basing how the WR group will look against last year. 

Before playing w Allen, McKenzie was cut because he couldn’t handle a punt and wasn’t even viewed as worth keeping as a gadget player for the O with all that speed and shiftiness.  So is it that McKenzie is the better player or he got more targets , with a far superior QB in a pass-centric offense, where he was the 3rd WR (4th option) by default?

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, mrags said:

Let’s not kid ourselves. The guy, just like Harry still hasn’t had a season as good as McKenzie has in this league. And I think we all agree that McKenzie kind of sucked. 
 

I have no issue with the signing or hoping he will be something more than what we had last year. I’m just tired of the arguments that we’ve upgraded at the WR position when neither  Sherfield or Harty have had as good as a season as McKenzie has. And he had a career year last season. Let’s just call it what it is, a guy that’s likely our 5th or 6h receiving option. Someone that will likely see more time chasing down punts than he will on offense. Once we all get rid of the lofty expectations we can have legitimate discussions about what our WR corp might look like this year. 

 

Last year was his first real opportunity to play offense. He was mostly used as a special teams player prior to that other than his rookie season.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

If Sherfield makes the team, just think about what that meant for all of the other prospects after Harty and Shorter, many of whom people here are talking about what great pick-ups they were, even if only as 5th/6th WRs.    

 

This time of year people seem to assume that the final roster is for 65.  

 

Three teams in five seasons, below-average statistical performance, his third one-year stint in a row, ... LOL   ... He's averaged 10.8 YPG in his five seasons with a best of 24.5 last season, absolutely horrific performance in the 3rd and 4th Qs last season, and only one decent (4/63/1) game against any passing D ranked higher than 16th. (Cleveland)  

 

BTW, the closest WR behind him at Miami had only 12 catches, Cedric Wilson, and without looking no one in our forum can name another WR on Miami last season.  IOW, he likely got what he got because there was no competition for him as a 3/4 WR.  

 

I have no idea why anyone would argue even slightly in favor of Sherfield.  Even if he makes the team I'd be stunned if he has even 10 catches.  

 

 

 

No disrespect, but your posts and comments like the bolded sure make it seem like you don't really know anything about his story, circumstances, skill set, etc and have not really seen him play, if at all.  You are coming across to me as a "never heard of the guy, so let me look at a stat sheet to see if he is any good" poster here in this thread.  Maybe I am wrong, but that is how you sound in your posts.  And while stat sheets can be useful, they can also be unreliable because they also do not always tell the whole story and lack contect.  

 

So I won't spend the time trying to argue or convince you there is more here than what you see on a stat sheet, but I will say I look forward to seeing your updated opinion of him after you see him in this offense on the field.  I am pretty confident this kid is better than you think, and I have a pretty stellar track record around here regarding WR's.  No one is saying he is the next Stefon Diggs, but this kid can play and he is certainly an upgrade to Kumerow backing up Diggs/Davis on the outside.

 

JUST FOR FUN:  Since you basically suggested the over/under on total receptions is at 10 catches by saying you will be stunned if he even gets 10...I will make you a friendly wager (you can pick the amount we bet) on the over/under bet of 10 catches...under 10 you win...10 we push, over 10 I win.  Let me know if you are interested, would be a fun bet.  

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

Crap. 

 

Sherfield got the Dunne kiss-o-death.

 

Every time Dunne has a feature article or relationship with a Bills player, they suck, or underperform.

 

From Efe Obada to isaiah McKenzie to Sammy Watkins to Trey Lance.

 

Nothing says "this player will be nothing special", more than a Tyler Dunne feature article.

 

Trey Lance never played for the Bills.

 

 

[mrags]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Isiah McKenzie had 42 catches, 442 yards and 4 TD’s last year.

 

Harty was injured last year so but in 2021, he had 36 catches, 570 yards and 3 TD’s.

 

You’re right.  6 more catches and 130 less receiving yards and 1 more TD is way too lofty expectations to match McKenzie.  
 

McKenzie had Josh Allen throwing to him and Harty had Jameis Winston throwing to him.  Which shouldn’t make a difference because Winston is just as good as Allen.

Knox, Kincaid, Diggs and Davis will all get thrown to more.  Probably Shakir too.  
 

I think people viewed Harty as the speed guy and not the answer guy.

So what you’re saying is a guy that is often injured (26 games over 4 season) and has never produced as much as our bad slot guy from last year is the answer. And you’re convinced he won’t get injured again, or will out produce what he literally has never done in his career. Got it. 

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I don’t think you can compare them the same because they do different things for your team
 

McKenzie was a big play guy at times who was underwhelming most of the time

 

Sherfield is a blocking wide receiver. He’s got good size appears to have good hands is not slow.

 

He played behind two very good wide, receivers in Miami, and was considered their third wide receiver

 

I’m not saying he’s going to have 1000 yards or anything but whenever you see one of our running backs go for a huge run, don’t be surprised if it was a Sherfield it was blocking for it

So with Hill and Waddle in the field taking up all the defenders looks, and he still couldn’t put produce a bad McKenzie. Got it. 

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Before playing w Allen, McKenzie was cut because he couldn’t handle a punt and wasn’t even viewed as worth keeping as a gadget player for the O with all that speed and shiftiness.  So is it that McKenzie is the better player or he got more targets , with a far superior QB in a pass-centric offense, where he was the 3rd WR (4th option) by default?

McKenzie was bad. Has always been pretty bad. I’m using him as a comparison to the 2 WRs we picked up that people seem to think will be better than what we had last year. But have never even produced as much as a bad McKenzie. 

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Last year was his first real opportunity to play offense. He was mostly used as a special teams player prior to that other than his rookie season.

Just stop 

[SectionC3]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I have continuously told people this guy is better than people think all off-season.  His story going back to SF is fascinating, and while I am hoping for a Davis bounce back season, Sherfield for me is someone who can push Davis for reps and targets if he doesn't and is more of the same last year.  

 

To be totally honest, if it was a battle for WR2 between Sherfield and last years version of Davis, my view would be that Sherfield is capable of winning that battle.  

 

I am not suggesting Sherfield enters week 1 as WR2 or anything, just saying that he is good insurance IMHO if Davis struggles from last year persist again this season.

I recall watching the first and playoff games against MIA last year and thinking who the eff is this guy.  He was a bit of a menace.  I appreciate him getting the sun in his eyes on the first snap of the playoff game.  But it doesn't change the fact that he was open.  He is a capable receiver.  

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’ve said my peace on all of this.  Replying is a monumental waste of my time and yours if you were to read it.  
 

we’ll just have to wait and see.  I think our passing game is going to be much improved and adding pieces like Harty and Sherfield will help as they are both upgrades over the incumbents that we let loose, Mckenzie and Kumerow.  You disagree.  
 

agree to disagree. 

Bingo.  I think it's a holistic improvement.  Davis won't have to play a million snaps because we'll have a backup who can block.  We can use Sherfield to put a little speed in the slot (think Daboll 2018 with Foster) to change it up a bit.  Screen game theoretically should be better.  Should help in the run game.  All around solid addition.  Think Kumerow but with more speed and better receiving skills. 

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

I recall watching the first and playoff games against MIA last year and thinking who the eff is this guy.  He was a bit of a menace.  I appreciate him getting the sun in his eyes on the first snap of the playoff game.  But it doesn't change the fact that he was open.  He is a capable receiver.  

Bingo.  I think it's a holistic improvement.  Davis won't have to play a million snaps because we'll have a backup who can block.  We can use Sherfield to put a little speed in the slot (think Daboll 2018 with Foster) to change it up a bit.  Screen game theoretically should be better.  Should help in the run game.  All around solid addition.  Think Kumerow but with more speed and better receiving skills. 

While I like the Sherfield addition, I really like the Harty addition.  It’s a gamble as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but as long as he’s healthy and available for the playoffs, I think he can do some damage. Feels like a 50/50 chance 

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

While I like the Sherfield addition, I really like the Harty addition.  It’s a gamble as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but as long as he’s healthy and available for the playoffs, I think he can do some damage. Feels like a 50/50 chance 

It's a really interesting and diverse WR room. I'm fairly confident the middle of the oline will be improved and it has better depth. That in itself may contribute to better tackle play. We've talked about concern regarding RT especially, but this could be a very dangerous and unpredictable offense that threatens every area of the field.

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Shorter couldn’t do jack crap in college as an absolute physical freak, to think he’s going to step up the NFL and be anything more than a ST gunner is a joke.

 

I won't argue that at all, but he is a fifth round pick and the team is big on him.  Nothing you or I think matters here as to whether he makes the team.  The team's big on him, so any questions the should defer to Beane & McD.  Besides, lots of draft analysts talking him up too, which is why I question much of what they say.  

 

In keeping with the context here though, that's hardly an argument in favor of Sherfield whose in his fifth season on his third different teams in as many seasons, hasn't even averaged 200 yards or one TD per game.  His best season last year was 30/417/1 with one notable play the entire season.  He also did that with zero competition at the spot.  It's anything but impressive, even for a backup.  

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, mrags said:

The term “improvement” is a reach. Considering neither of them have accomplished what McKenzie has. Again. We’re basing how the WR group will look against last year. 

 

I'll tell you where I see improvement..... it's in the depth outside. Harty and Sherfield DO have inside/outside flex. Last year outside it was Diggs, Davis and then Kumerow. The other three guys were slot only. Davis turned an ankle and was hobbled for at least a third of the season and had to play through it and Kumerow got hurt and was lost for the year too. I think both Harty and Sherfield give you more than Kumerow and so our outside depth is considerably better. I actually think Justin Shorter will end up playing the WR6 and starting gunner role, Sherfield might play some teams but he is going to play on offense some too. Outside depth is more valuable than slot depth, therefore being stronger outside but a little weaker inside is a win overall for me. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

 

Shorter couldn’t do jack crap in college as an absolute physical freak, to think he’s going to step up the NFL and be anything more than a ST gunner is a joke.

 

It is a long shot, I agree. When I was writing my day 3 debrief for the draft I was trying to come up with a comparison for Shorter as a bigger receiver who was talented but only produced modestly in college yet then broke out when he reached the NFL. I confess I was struggling. I can think of slot guys and smaller route runner guys who were modest producers in college and then turned into elite level guys in the NFL - hell Stef Diggs is one of those - but a "big" receiver who fits that profile is hard to come up with. I think it is because those bigger guys get given EVERY chance in college to do it because people look at the size and the tools. If they don't do it there the light is not likely to come on in the NFL. 

 

I think he is a ST gunner and a back end of the roster receiver. Definitely as a rookie, but that is likely his ceiling for his career. If he develops into more than that it is found money. 

[PBF81]

11 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but your posts and comments like the bolded sure make it seem like you don't really know anything about his story, circumstances, skill set, etc and have not really seen him play, if at all.  You are coming across to me as a "never heard of the guy, so let me look at a stat sheet to see if he is any good" poster here in this thread.  Maybe I am wrong, but that is how you sound in your posts.  And while stat sheets can be useful, they can also be unreliable because they also do not always tell the whole story and lack contect.  

 

So I won't spend the time trying to argue or convince you there is more here than what you see on a stat sheet, but I will say I look forward to seeing your updated opinion of him after you see him in this offense on the field.  I am pretty confident this kid is better than you think, and I have a pretty stellar track record around here regarding WR's.  No one is saying he is the next Stefon Diggs, but this kid can play and he is certainly an upgrade to Kumerow backing up Diggs/Davis on the outside.

 

JUST FOR FUN:  Since you basically suggested the over/under on total receptions is at 10 catches by saying you will be stunned if he even gets 10...I will make you a friendly wager (you can pick the amount we bet) on the over/under bet of 10 catches...under 10 you win...10 we push, over 10 I win.  Let me know if you are interested, would be a fun bet.  

 

No disrespect taken.     Likewise BTW, and I'm enjoying this.  Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts!!  

 

Actually, almost the entire piece read like a fluff piece to me.  To start, anytime people start talking about "combine stats" six years into a career, the aroma of fresh poop is already prominent.  Then it goes into his stats which you imply above are all but irrelevant, then it talks about how great his catching in traffic is, but fails to mention that, apparently then, he drops many of the routine passes since both his career as well as in his only season with a significant number of catches, his catch% was terrible at 56%.  I was left attempting to connect those two dots.  Then it talks about him "earning trust," then fades into the kiss-of-death for receivers, how good his Special Teams play is and how he always shows up early for work.  (Yawn!)  And then, as if the reader looking for some hope for optimism isn't bored into the nines, they talk about a reunion with "the three-amigos" from Arizona.  Major eyeroll there.  

 

Also, that piece was prior to last season, and yet, he's no longer on Miami.  

 

You said this ... 

 

Quote

... but I will say I look forward to seeing your updated opinion of him after you see him in this offense on the field.  I am pretty confident this kid is better than you think, and I have a pretty stellar track record around here regarding WR's. 

 

Here's my updated opinion, and, after having read that piece again.  At best he's a backup to Diggs, so unless Diggs goes down ...  We have no control over that.  And if Diggs goes down, every WR moves up at least a little.  Last season Shakir was Diggs' backup, and as the team's 4th leading WR, Shakir caught 10 passes.  Our 5th leading WR caught 6 passes.  In Miami Sherfield was among 4 WRs on a team with zero significant depth at WR, none, meaning he was forced into the role deserving or not, and which clearly gave him more opportunities than he otherwise would have had, which won't be the case here.  As I pointed out, he was terrible in the 2nd halves of games.  His catch% would have rivaled for DFL here last season, and despite Davis being worse in that regard, Davis makes so many big plays whereas Sherfield makes almost none.  I see Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Hasty all having more receptions than him.  I see Kincaid dipping into the WR's catches.  I'll give him a 60% chance of making the team as the 5th WR.  As to "making the tough catches in traffic," how many times have we heard that about WRs coming through here, or about a WR's speed.  It gets tedious.  

 

Why would I, should I, expect that to change here, or expect him to post more than a handful of catches, this season, in his sixth season in the league?  I don't, which is my updated opinion.  

 

BTW, I'd be curious what your take on Zay Jones upon drafting him was given your statement about WRs.  

 

Quote

JUST FOR FUN:  Since you basically suggested the over/under on total receptions is at 10 catches by saying you will be stunned if he even gets 10...I will make you a friendly wager (you can pick the amount we bet) on the over/under bet of 10 catches...under 10 you win...10 we push, over 10 I win.  Let me know if you are interested, would be a fun bet.  

 

I'm not one of those "see I told you so types," in fact, I couldn't care less about being right, and with that in mind, sure, I'm all over that.  Out of curiosity though, and be honest, what do you seem him doing this season here?  Last season he had 30/417/2.  

 

You said friendly wager but then implied an amount.  But I'll do $50 payable to some Bills related charity, either way, winner's choice, if you want.  But keep in mind, if he were to be cut either before or during the season you'd lose that.  As an injury clause in fairness to you, we can say that if he isn't healthy for at least a dozen games then we can make it a null bet.  Otherwise just a friendly wager.  BTW, I've seen at least one depth chart prediction with him not among the WRs.  

 

And hey, I hope he has 800 yards and 6 TDs, I do.  Not going to happen though.  

 

Out of curiosity, our current depth chart has Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, Shorter, and Sherfield on it, and some more less prominent.  Then Knox and Kincaid, the latter whom again was a 1st-round pick chosen to essentially fill the slot WR role to at least somewhat of an extent.  If Kincaid doesn't put up at least 50 grabs for 500 yards and at least 4/5 TDs, Beane's going to start having an uncomfortable existence here.  Knox, our $52M TE, will have to get some too.  I don't see a lot remaining for 4th and 5th WRs.  The question is, how do you see, numbers wise, the distribution of catches among those 8 candidates, assuming that all make the team?   This is where discussions of this nature get interesting.   

 

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by PBF81

[SectionC3]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

While I like the Sherfield addition, I really like the Harty addition.  It’s a gamble as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but as long as he’s healthy and available for the playoffs, I think he can do some damage. Feels like a 50/50 chance 

I'm fine with both.  Harty probably is a 4 and an improved McKenzie.  Perfect role for him.  Maybe he is a part-time 3 if they go with a job share there until Kincaid is ready.  Love the competition we're going to have in that position group. 

[DallasBillsFan1]

I need to take a shower now that I've visited a Dolphins website.  

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a long shot, I agree. When I was writing my day 3 debrief for the draft I was trying to come up with a comparison for Shorter as a bigger receiver who was talented but only produced modestly in college yet then broke out when he reached the NFL. I confess I was struggling. I can think of slot guys and smaller route runner guys who were modest producers in college and then turned into elite level guys in the NFL - hell Stef Diggs is one of those - but a "big" receiver who fits that profile is hard to come up with. I think it is because those bigger guys get given EVERY chance in college to do it because people look at the size and the tools. If they don't do it there the light is not likely to come on in the NFL. 

 

I think he is a ST gunner and a back end of the roster receiver. Definitely as a rookie, but that is likely his ceiling for his career. If he develops into more than that it is found money. 

 

yikes, I was hoping there was someone lime Shorter who turned it on in the NFL.   Perhaps he is the first?

 

That said, would you have preferred AT Perry over him?   Or is the gamble here worth it? 

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, mrags said:

So what you’re saying is a guy that is often injured (26 games over 4 season) and has never produced as much as our bad slot guy from last year is the answer.

 

I didn't say he's the answer.  I clearly stated he's not one of our top options at the position.  I clearly stated he's our speed guy.  Quit putting words in my mouth.

 

McKenzie had 6 more catches and 1 more TD and you're acting that's an insurmountable feat to get lol.  

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

yikes, I was hoping there was someone lime Shorter who turned it on in the NFL.   Perhaps he is the first?

 

That said, would you have preferred AT Perry over him?   Or is the gamble here worth it? 

 

I quite liked Perry around that spot. I haf a late 4th on him but I hadn't really looked at Shorter so not fair to take a strong view and STs definitely plays in when you get to rounds 5-7 so his gunner ability shouldn't be discounted.

[Big Turk]

9 hours ago, mrags said:

So what you’re saying is a guy that is often injured (26 games over 4 season) and has never produced as much as our bad slot guy from last year is the answer. And you’re convinced he won’t get injured again, or will out produce what he literally has never done in his career. Got it. 

So with Hill and Waddle in the field taking up all the defenders looks, and he still couldn’t put produce a bad McKenzie. Got it. 

McKenzie was bad. Has always been pretty bad. I’m using him as a comparison to the 2 WRs we picked up that people seem to think will be better than what we had last year. But have never even produced as much as a bad McKenzie. 

Just stop 

 

I see you already have all the answers. Why bother watching the games?

[Doc]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is a long shot, I agree. When I was writing my day 3 debrief for the draft I was trying to come up with a comparison for Shorter as a bigger receiver who was talented but only produced modestly in college yet then broke out when he reached the NFL. I confess I was struggling. I can think of slot guys and smaller route runner guys who were modest producers in college and then turned into elite level guys in the NFL - hell Stef Diggs is one of those - but a "big" receiver who fits that profile is hard to come up with. I think it is because those bigger guys get given EVERY chance in college to do it because people look at the size and the tools. If they don't do it there the light is not likely to come on in the NFL. 

 

I think he is a ST gunner and a back end of the roster receiver. Definitely as a rookie, but that is likely his ceiling for his career. If he develops into more than that it is found money. 

 

Marques Colston?

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Marques Colston?

 

I know he was a small school guy, would have to go and read up on his college production. Might be a shout. He was certainly a player who fits that bigger receiver type that was drafted late and became a legit NFL #1.

[billybrew1]

I dunno, this guy seems too good to be true… I hope he comes here and wins a Bills’ contract, I really do.

He could be another Fred Jackson for us, sounds like, but a WR…. But Fred did everything right, everything.

Just like it seems this guy does…. I hope is a Fred Jackson and not a Tim Settle (who also came here highly acclaimed from Washington but as of yet, showed nothing to speak of. Which will it be?

[BuffaloBill]

Sounds like an excellent pick up by the Bills. Hard not to root for someone who has come from such challenging circumstances. 

[hondo in seattle]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'll tell you where I see improvement..... it's in the depth outside. Harty and Sherfield DO have inside/outside flex. Last year outside it was Diggs, Davis and then Kumerow. The other three guys were slot only. Davis turned an ankle and was hobbled for at least a third of the season and had to play through it and Kumerow got hurt and was lost for the year too. I think both Harty and Sherfield give you more than Kumerow and so our outside depth is considerably better. I actually think Justin Shorter will end up playing the WR6 and starting gunner role, Sherfield might play some teams but he is going to play on offense some too. Outside depth is more valuable than slot depth, therefore being stronger outside but a little weaker inside is a win overall for me. 

 

Agreed.   When Gabe hurt his ankle, we needed outside depth and didn't have it.   Sherfield and Harty are both more talented, accomplished wideouts than Kumerow.  

 

We also didn't have someone to work the middle of the field.  Beane said that was supposed to be Crowder's role and we know what happened to Crowder.  

 

We also have greater TE depth this year.  Last season, Knox was our only legit TE.  And while he wasn't bad, I wonder if the death of his brother negatively impacted his play.  He seemed to disappear some games.  Kincaid's addition to the TE ranks is exciting.  

 

I hope Gabe steps up this year.  But even if he doesn't, this is a better receiving corps top-to-bottom than last year.  

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Agreed.   When Gabe hurt his ankle, we needed outside depth and didn't have it.   Sherfield and Harty are both more talented, accomplished wideouts than Kumerow.  

 

We also didn't have someone to work the middle of the field.  Beane said that was supposed to be Crowder's role and we know what happened to Crowder.  

 

We also have greater TE depth this year.  Last season, Knox was our only legit TE.  And while he wasn't bad, I wonder if the death of his brother negatively impacted his play.  He seemed to disappear some games.  Kincaid's addition to the TE ranks is exciting.  

 

I hope Gabe steps up this year.  But even if he doesn't, this is a better receiving corps top-to-bottom than last year.  

 

Knox disappearing was on Josh and moreso Dorsey. It is the one big question with Kincaid. This has been an offense that has ignored tight ends. And while Kincaid is more of a slot he is a bigger guy in the middle of the field - the type that the Bills have struggled to use. This is a huge year for Ken Dorsey IMO. If it goes well he is a Head Coach next year. If it doesn't he might be out of a job.

[dave mcbride]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I know he was a small school guy, would have to go and read up on his college production. Might be a shout. He was certainly a player who fits that bigger receiver type that was drafted late and became a legit NFL #1.

Stevie Johnson and TJ Houshmandzedah (sp?) were both 6'2" -- not giants, of course, but still reasonably tall. They were very productive for decent stretches. Both were 7th rounders. TO was a big, big guy and was drafted late in the 3rd. It's not the fifth, but he way overperformed his draft slot. 

 

Also, Brandon Marshall - 6'4" and drafted in the 4th round. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MarsBr00.htm

Edited May 11, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

No disrespect taken.     Likewise BTW, and I'm enjoying this.  Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts!!  

 

Actually, almost the entire piece read like a fluff piece to me.  To start, anytime people start talking about "combine stats" six years into a career, the aroma of fresh poop is already prominent.  Then it goes into his stats which you imply above are all but irrelevant, then it talks about how great his catching in traffic is, but fails to mention that, apparently then, he drops many of the routine passes since both his career as well as in his only season with a significant number of catches, his catch% was terrible at 56%.  I was left attempting to connect those two dots.  Then it talks about him "earning trust," then fades into the kiss-of-death for receivers, how good his Special Teams play is and how he always shows up early for work.  (Yawn!)  And then, as if the reader looking for some hope for optimism isn't bored into the nines, they talk about a reunion with "the three-amigos" from Arizona.  Major eyeroll there.  

 

Good and fair reply here...lets discuss a few of these points

 

1, what I bolded above is still better than Davis with Davis playing with a much better QB.  Being good on ST is not a kiss of death IMO, that is how you carve out a role and contribute more when you have guys entrenched above him.  In SF, he was stuck behind Deebo and Aiyuk.  In Miami, he was stuck behind Hill and Waddle.  And while he was in SF, he was outplaying everyone in camp and preseason, but he had no shot to play because of the draft capital invested in the guys above him that he was out playing.  So the fact he put the work in to earn more time and a spot through ST is something I look as a positive from him both in work ethic and attitude.   

 

 

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Here's my updated opinion, and, after having read that piece again.  At best he's a backup to Diggs, so unless Diggs goes down ...  We have no control over that.  And if Diggs goes down, every WR moves up at least a little.  Last season Shakir was Diggs' backup, and as the team's 4th leading WR, Shakir caught 10 passes.  Our 5th leading WR caught 6 passes.  In Miami Sherfield was among 4 WRs on a team with zero significant depth at WR, none, meaning he was forced into the role deserving or not, and which clearly gave him more opportunities than he otherwise would have had, which won't be the case here.  As I pointed out, he was terrible in the 2nd halves of games.  His catch% would have rivaled for DFL here last season, and despite Davis being worse in that regard, Davis makes so many big plays whereas Sherfield makes almost none.  I see Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Hasty all having more receptions than him.  I see Kincaid dipping into the WR's catches.  I'll give him a 60% chance of making the team as the 5th WR.  As to "making the tough catches in traffic," how many times have we heard that about WRs coming through here, or about a WR's speed.  It gets tedious.  

 

Why would I, should I, expect that to change here, or expect him to post more than a handful of catches, this season, in his sixth season in the league?  I don't, which is my updated opinion.  

 

Shakir stats last year have no bearing here...and that is because Dorsey just didnt use him, nor did this team even really use Cook for a large portion of the season as rookies.  Shakirs reps were being taken by McKenze and then Beasley.  

 

Sherfield this year will be a #3 WR behind Diggs and Davis, and unlike Kumerow, he was signed here to be a WR where as Kumerow was a backup in terms of technicality, but was mostly entirely here only for ST's play.  Sherfield will get more time on the field as a WR than Kumerow ever did.  

 

The bolded above...this isnt a fair comparison given the nature of Davis role in the 2nd most prolific offense (only 2nd to KC by just 10 points over the past 3 seasons) in the NFL during Davis time here.  Davis also saw injuries to John Brown as a rookie, Sanders in his 2nd year boost his reps and opportunities on the field.  Then he was a full blown #2 WR last year.  BUT...do you know that in 3 seasons, Davis only has a total of 3...just 3...100 yard games, one in each season?  The amount of big games and big plays gets grossly exaggerated around Davis given the opportunity he has had and in the offense he plays in.   Sherfield has never been the opportunity to either play with a QB like Allen nor have a role anywhere near Davis given he was buried behind very good to elite WR's his whole career.  

 

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

BTW, I'd be curious what your take on Zay Jones upon drafting him was given your statement about WRs.  

 

I not only wanted, but fully expected, we were drafting JuJu when we traded up for Zay Jones.  I had Zay as 3rd or 4th round WR that year. I talked myself into optimism, I mean he did have all those catches.  But you can check my posting history, I was very critical of Zay from the moment he totally lost us the game against the Panthers as a rookie when he ran a terrible route, almost tripped on his own feet causing him to stumble and drop the perfectly thrown game winning TD by Taylor.  People tried to blame Tyrod and say it wasn't a good throw until you watch the replay and realize it was thrown EXACTLY to where Zay was supposed to be, but Zay ran an awful and sloppy route putting him in a position that made that dropped catch a harder ball to catch.  He would go on to continue to have many struggles throughout the season.  

 

I even posted a "calling it now" thread predicting the end of Zay in Buffalo the year we got rid of him during that offseason.  Didn't love the pick when it happened, and didn't think he was good enough during his time here.  

 

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

I'm not one of those "see I told you so types," in fact, I couldn't care less about being right, and with that in mind, sure, I'm all over that.  Out of curiosity though, and be honest, what do you seem him doing this season here?  Last season he had 30/417/2.  

 

To be honest, that is a realistic stat line here too.  Again, not saying that Sherfield is a future pro bowler here, the facts of the matter there are a lot of mouths to feed on this team, everyones personal stats I expect to go down from last year with the probability we will run a little bit more (Drafting Cook last year, adding Harris, then adding C'Yrus), then upgrading from Kumerow to Sherfield, upgrading from McKenzie to Harty (I do think Harty has more to offer as a WR than McKenzie), having Shakir entering as the primary slot WR, and now having Kincaid to split time in the slot as a Big Slot and also a 2nd TE in 12 personnel packages.  

 

For Anyone other than a primary target to have an impressive stat line, it would take injuries creating opportunities.  But I do think its a lock for Sherfield to get over the 10 catches you mentioned, and I do think during the season we will see Sherfield make some nice plays and have a few exciting moments.  

 

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You said friendly wager but then implied an amount.  But I'll do $50 payable to some Bills related charity, either way, winner's choice, if you want.  But keep in mind, if he were to be cut either before or during the season you'd lose that.  As an injury clause in fairness to you, we can say that if he isn't healthy for at least a dozen games then we can make it a null bet.  Otherwise just a friendly wager.  BTW, I've seen at least one depth chart prediction with him not among the WRs.  

 

And hey, I hope he has 800 yards and 6 TDs, I do.  Not going to happen though.  

 

Out of curiosity, our current depth chart has Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, Shorter, and Sherfield on it, and some more less prominent.  Then Knox and Kincaid, the latter whom again was a 1st-round pick chosen to essentially fill the slot WR role to at least somewhat of an extent.  If Kincaid doesn't put up at least 50 grabs for 500 yards and at least 4/5 TDs, Beane's going to start having an uncomfortable existence here.  Knox, our $52M TE, will have to get some too.  I don't see a lot remaining for 4th and 5th WRs.  The question is, how do you see, numbers wise, the distribution of catches among those 8 candidates, assuming that all make the team?   This is where discussions of this nature get interesting.   

 

 

 

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree that stat line is not going to happen...UNLESS another factor is in play like injuries play a role to create more opportunities or someone like Davis really struggles again and he starts cutting into his targets.

 

I love this wager...this is what I meant by friendly, and love that it goes to a charity.  I agree to all your terms, they are very well thought out and fair.  The one clarity...is if he is cut because he missed time in camp/preseason with an injury it nullifies the bet.  He has no experience on this team, with Allen, or the playbook...so if he falls behind due to injury, like many guys, their spot could be in jeopardy with this loaded roster.  But if he is cut because he didn't earn a spot, absolutely I should lose that bet.   

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Stevie Johnson and TJ Houshmandzedah (sp?) were both 6'2" -- not giants, of course, but still reasonably tall. They were very productive for decent stretches. Both were 7th rounders. TO was a big, big guy and was drafted late in the 3rd. It's not the fifth, but he way overperformed his draft slot. 

 

Also, Brandon Marshall - 6'4" and drafted in the 4th round. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MarsBr00.htm

 

Stevie isn't really the type I am talking about though, he isn't a prototypical, vertical, downfield receiver. He was a crafty, unique, route runner. And he had college production. Okay only one season but his final year at Kentucky he had over 1,000 yards and 13 TDs. 

 

I don't know as much about the college production of the others without looking it up. But I suspect TO and Brandon Marshall didn't have a best season of 550 and 3 toudowns. Of course they out performed their college career in the NFL.

 

It is those bigger, downfield guys that didn't really produce beyond a very modest level in college. I am thinking guys like the kid the Cowboys took two years ago out of Stanford in the 5th or 6th and Jacob Harris out of UCF who the Rams took in the 4th and have already cut. Collin Johnson out of Texas...  I feel like in the last 10 years since I have been really focused on the draft there have been a ton of them. Bigger guys whose best years in college are 5 or 600 yards and teams gamble on the upside and they don't produce... 

 

I am sure there are examples where it has worked out but I am struggling to think of them.