NFL draft rumors 2023

[BADOLBILZ]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

11 now by my board.

 

 

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents.    There are quite a few of them in this draft.   It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys.   A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

And how many first round grades did you have in a strong draft year, like 2020?  I'm sorry...I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but when I hear guys say there are 11 or 12 prospects with first round grades, my immediate thought is that they need to adjust their grading system, especially if they have less than 25 first round grades even in a strong year...it becomes meaningless.    

 

All this info is searchable on the board. 19 and 5 borderline in 2020. 11 and 5 borderline this year. I am normally between 18 and 21 true 1sts and then 4 to 6 borderline guys. As a rule. The most true 1sts I have given was 23 in 2017. That is the best first round I have evaluated in the time I have been doing it. 2017 and 2018 consecutive were really strong classes.

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents.    There are quite a few of them in this draft.   It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys.   A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

 

That is possible, definitely it is. There are lots and lots of older prospects in this class who used the extra year of covid eligibility and as a result when you are consideeing ceilings you have to factor in that physically at 24 or 25 you are pretty much what you are. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

All this info is searchable on the board. 19 and 5 borderline in 2020. 11 and 5 borderline this year. I am normally between 18 and 21 true 1sts and then 4 to 6 borderline guys. As a rule. The most true 1sts I have given was 23 in 2017. That is the best first round I have evaluated in the time I have been doing it. 2017 and 2018 consecutive were really strong classes.

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

[Dr. Who]

I have a background in literature and philosophical theology. I can speak with some authority on at least some subjects that fall under those categories. Part of discerning intelligence is the capacity to recognize authoritative voices on matters outside one's expertise. There is a kind of corrosive egalitarianism that resists the notion that not all opinions are equal. In any event, everyone here has favorites and folks they always read because they find them worthwhile. When I read someone cavalierly impugning someone with a long reputation of helpful posts, I figure they are new and just don't know or they are dim and never will.

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

NFL GMs do the same thing. Prime example last season that Beane stated that Elam was last guy he had on his board with a 1st Round grade was Elam and why we traded up for him. 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

As my post came right after yours, just to be clear, my post is not aimed at you. 

[mannc]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

NFL GMs do the same thing. Prime example last season that Beane stated that Elam was last guy he had on his board with a 1st Round grade was Elam and why we traded up for him. 

Exactly…the term “first round grade” has become meaningless, at least as used by many mock drafters, scouts and GMs

[MrEpsYtown]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents.    There are quite a few of them in this draft.   It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys.   A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

 

Honestly, in a draft like this, grabbing those former 5 star recruits isn't the worst way to do business. Play the risk reward game. Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders, Gervon Dexter, Trenton Simpson, Wanya Morris, Zach Harrison, Justin Shorter...

 

Anyway here is an article with all the 5 star guys in this draft: 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-former-five-star-recruits-bryce-young-jalen-carter-will-anderson-jr

Edited April 24, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

Yeah.  You never hear there’s so many first round grades this draft you’ll get first round grade players in the 2nd round.  Lol. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

As my post came right after yours, just to be clear, my post is not aimed at you. 

Thanks, because I certainly did not intend to impugn GunnerBill’s opinion.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

 

Again, in a discussion yesterday with @Chaos a similar point was made. attaching "rounds" to it can potentially be confusing for some people. Personally I think it makes it simpler but don't call them rounds if in your mind you equate a round with 32 picks. Call them tiers. Call them clusters. Call them groups. Whatever you want. 

 

I am definitely not the only one. I was listening to the podcast Rick Speilman has been doing this year on my morning commute he said he "rarely" had more than 18 true first round grades in his 10 plus years with the Vikings. It is the way NFL teams work. I designed my grading system after talking to someone who has been in draft rooms. 

 

When Brandon Beane says he would trade back if his first round is cleared out he means the guys in the first tier on his board. Teams grade and then brigade by round which is what I do. But you could easily call it something else.

[mannc]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, in a discussion yesterday with @Chaos a similar point was made. attaching "rounds" to it can potentially be confusing for some people. Personally I think it makes it simpler but don't call them rounds if in your mind you equate a round with 32 picks. Call them tiers. Call them clusters. Call them groups. Whatever you want. 

 

I am definitely not the only one. I was listening to the podcast Rick Speilman has been doing this year on my morning commute he said he "rarely" had more than 18 true first round grades in his 10 plus years with the Vikings. It is the way NFL teams work. I designed my grading system after talking to someone who has been in draft rooms. 

 

When Brandon Beane says he would trade back if his first round is cleared out he means the guys in the first tier on his board. Teams grade and then brigade by round which is what I do. But you could easily call it something else.

I guess my problem is with the terminology, not the method or the practice itself.  If you're really giving out true "first round grades" then there should be 40 or more in really strong years and some number less than 32 in weak classes.  If you're always giving out far less than 32 "first round grades" then you're just being a curmudgeon😃 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I guess my problem is with the terminology, not the method or the practice itself.  If you're really giving out true "first round grades" then there should be 40 or more in really strong years and some number less than 32 in weak classes.  If you're always giving out far less than 32 "first round grades" then you're just being a curmudgeon😃 

I generally take curmudgeon as a term of approbation. Then again, I prefer cats to people.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Might I ask why not?

 

This was a few weeks ago....may have changed? 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

Does it matter if we’re concerned with his hand size?  

 

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He hasn't met with any teams. No thanks on Downs 

Lol.  That’s why you wouldn’t want him?  Ffs.  People are crazy

[CaptnCoke11]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

3.3% drop rate… so no i don’t think anyone is concerned 

[eball]

19 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

This was a few weeks ago....may have changed? 

 

LOL I was asking why you said "no thanks" on Downs, but apparently it's because he didn't have any "official visits."

 

I watched the kid play at UNC.  He has 1st round WR skills.  He's not a big guy, but he could dominate in the slot.

 

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

This was a few weeks ago....may have changed? 

 

I think its because Downs is a pretty clean prospect. No character questions, no injury history, teams might have a good grasp on who he is so its not necessary to bring him in. 

[HappyDays]

No way this is true... right? If you assume Robinson and Gibbs are both 1st round picks, this would mean only one WR drafted in the 1st.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by HappyDays

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

LOL I was asking why you said "no thanks" on Downs, but apparently it's because he didn't have any "official visits."

 

I watched the kid play at UNC.  He has 1st round WR skills.  He's not a big guy, but he could dominate in the slot.

 

I'd rather not take a slot only at 27, but I do think he's very skilled. One of those fellas I'd prefer to trade back to the top of the second to get. I won't be horribly upset if he's the pick.

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, eball said:

 

LOL I was asking why you said "no thanks" on Downs, but apparently it's because he didn't have any "official visits."

 

I watched the kid play at UNC.  He has 1st round WR skills.  He's not a big guy, but he could dominate in the slot.

 

 

I'll take your word for it then. I'd be open to him at 59. I don't think the value is there at 27 

[finn]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Honestly, in a draft like this, grabbing those former 5 star recruits isn't the worst way to do business. Play the risk reward game. Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders, Gervon Dexter, Trenton Simpson, Wanya Morris, Zach Harrison, Justin Shorter...

Or Fred Rouse, Willie Williams, Ryan Perrilloux, Ben Olson, James Banks, Darrell Scott, Mitch Mustain, Kyle Wright.....

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/699015-college-football-recruiting-the-20-worst-5-star-recruiting-busts-of-the-2000s

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I'd rather not take a slot only at 27, but I do think he's very skilled. One of those fellas I'd prefer to trade back to the top of the second to get. I won't be horribly upset if he's the pick.

Agreed.  He’d be ideal in a trade up in rd 2, but it’s a big risk.  He might be gone.  
 

I absolutely love him.  He’d be one helluva player in this offense.  He’s got it all, minus size, for a slot WR

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

No way this is true... right? If you assume Robinson and Gibbs are both 1st round picks, this would mean only one WR drafted in the 1st.

 

 

 

Slot WRs don’t go particularly high, the top 3 WRs are slot WRs. Bills need slot WR.

 

Bills will have to think about a trade up around 20, that’s when we start to see WRs going. If none are gone by 20 do you stay put? If 1 is gone by 20 it’s going to be decision time.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

No way this is true... right? If you assume Robinson and Gibbs are both 1st round picks, this would mean only one WR drafted in the 1st.

 

 

 

Well the chances of us getting JSN, Flowers, Addison or Hyatt just went up a bit 

Also... why can't anyone decide on Robinson's first name? Is it Bijan or Bijon 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, eball said:

 

LOL I was asking why you said "no thanks" on Downs, but apparently it's because he didn't have any "official visits."

 

I watched the kid play at UNC.  He has 1st round WR skills.  He's not a big guy, but he could dominate in the slot.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

I'll take your word for it then. I'd be open to him at 59. I don't think the value is there at 27 

 

I don't personally think he will be drafted in the first round, but I do think he has some serious upside and has the potential to be the best WR to come out of this draft when we look back in 3-5 years.  

 

Shakir is someone I like a lot and believe has a lot of potential still.  But if we ended up with Downs in the 2nd, it would be hard to not get very excited.  

[HappyDays]

Quote

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles moved up in the first round to select Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis, and if the Eagles could have their way, they would do that again to reunite Davis with his former teammate Jalen Carter. NFL team sources have told WalterFootball.com that Philadelphia has made calls to see what it would take for teams to move down to the 10th-overall pick. Given the cost of trading in the top 10, the Eagles are not looking to move into the top five. Their calls have focused on the teams in the back half of the first round.

Of course for a trade to happen, Carter would have to slip past No. 5 in the 2023 NFL Draft. The only top-five-picking team that looks like a possibility for Carter is the Seahawks with the fifth selection. Detroit, Las Vegas and Atlanta are not going to take Carter because of his poor character and work-ethic issues not meshing well with their team cultures. The Bears could easily take Carter if he got to the No. 9 pick, so the Eagles would want to jump them. Among that trio at No. 6-8, the Raiders and Falcons are probably the most likely trade-down partners. Both Las Vegas and Atlanta could use more draft picks, so a trade is possible. The Seahawks are the key to the situation, and if they pass on Carter, then he has a real shot to join Davis in Philadelphia

 

Sources say that if the Eagles don't land Carter, Iowa defensive end Lukas Van Ness is one of the top candidates for them. They want, and need, more youth on their defensive line, and Van Ness would be a great scheme fit. There has been some hype that Philadelphia might take Texas superstar running back Bijan Robinson, but sources say the franchise are more likely to take a defensive lineman. Everybody around the league loves Robinson, but the value teams place on running backs will cause some teams to take lesser players over Robinson because those players play a more in-demand position. If the Eagles don't take Carter, it sounds like Van Ness is a top target for them.

 

Where Robinson will go in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft is a big mystery. There are many teams that have him as the highest-graded player in the draft, and Robinson is a lock to go as a top-20 pick. However, teams feel he could go higher than expected.

One source said the Houston Texans love Robinson and that he is in the running for the 12th pick of Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Taking running back Dameon Pierce in the fourth round last year is one of the few successes that Texans general manager Nick Caserio can claim, so it would be a surprise if Houston did take a running back given Pierce's excellent rookie season.

However, it is the Texans we are talking about, and they have made a plethora of mistakes over the past five years, with incompetence stemming from owner Cal McNair, former head coach Bill O'Brien, and now Caserio. Robinson would probably be a great player for the Texans, but considering they already have a good running back, it does not make sense to take another when there a lot of other positions starved for talent on their roster. Still, sources say Houston is high on Robinson and if he gets to the 12th pick, he could be too good for the organization to pass up.

 

Late in the draft process, teams get their medical reports, and if players get flunked medically, they can be dropped off draft boards. One high-profile prospect who some teams have flunked medically is Georgia tight end Darnell Washington. Along with the medical, some team sources said there are some minor character concerns. If Washington slides on the second day of the 2023 NFL Draft, the medical and the character will be the reasons why.

 

Another tight end who has been hurt by the medical evaluation is Iowa's Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is a sleeper prospect who a lot of teams really loved. In speaking to sources at multiple teams, they said the medical report was not bad enough to get LaPorta dropped off their board. However, it was not clean ,and it would be the reason if LaPorta slides into the middle or back half of the second round during the 2023 NFL Draft.

 

[eball]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

I'll take your word for it then. I'd be open to him at 59. I don't think the value is there at 27 

 

He won't be around at 59.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Oh wow, what's the injury concern with Washington?  Maybe he'll fall and we can get him in the mid rounds 

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

No way this is true... right? If you assume Robinson and Gibbs are both 1st round picks, this would mean only one WR drafted in the 1st.

 

 

 

 

Personally, I think its unlikely.  I do think 2 RB's are going to go in first with Bijan and Gibbs, but for this to be true only 1 WR would have to go round 1.  And I have a hard time seeing less than 2 WR's go round given the number of teams that need a WR this year, especially in the back half of the draft.    

 

At the same time, it wouldn't be totally shocking either if only 1 WR went given the wide varying degree of how people feel about the WR's.  Kind of reminds me of the year DK Metcalf came out where there were a lot of guys that could be first rounders, then many fell to the 2nd round.  

 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Interesting-  would make sense for Philly to make the move to 2.  Houston could get their guy in bijan.  Philly could likely trade down a spot or 3 and recoup some of the picks it paid to get up to 2.  
 

Can’t wait for Thursday 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

If LaPorta and Washington are dropped or hurt by medicals, the TE depth at the top of this draft is cut in half. Sorry to hear about Washington, if true. OTOH, maybe someone is hoping he drops to them. This is the time when reports like this suddenly seem to become public knowledge.

[gonzo1105]

All I know is once you get past the first 6 or 7 picks in this draft, it is highly volatile and can go in many different directions. Usually you can lock in a top 15-Top 20 but this year beyond 6 or 7 it could be anyone. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

All I know is once you get past the first 6 or 7 picks in this draft, it is highly volatile and can go in many different directions. Usually you can lock in a top 15-Top 20 but this year beyond 6 or 7 it could be anyone. 

Seriously.  All the guys projected to go 20-30 could go 11-20…. Or even 30-40-50.  
 

this is why I don’t hate Downs @27.  That’s certainly not my preference, but I just want to add players that will improve our offense.   If the value isn’t there, so be it.  This draft is crap.  It’s almost as if whoever we draft @ 27 will be drafted higher than they should be drafted.  Add a difference maker.  Can a slot WR be considered a difference maker?  Looking at last years offense, I’d answer yes.

[Einstein's Dog]

9 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Oh wow, what's the injury concern with Washington?  Maybe he'll fall and we can get him in the mid rounds 

Yeah, that's new to me.  Kind of a bummer though, because I was hoping the Bills would be targeting this man-mountain.  He has a lot of physical traits that could make him special.  Plus seems like he would be amenable to starting out with a large blocking role.

 

But failing Medicals?  What happened?  Sounds bad.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Seriously.  All the guys projected to go 20-30 could go 11-20…. Or even 30-40-50.  
 

this is why I don’t hate Downs @27.  That’s certainly not my preference, but I just want to add players that will improve our offense.   If the value isn’t there, so be it.  This draft is crap.  It’s almost as if whoever we draft @ 27 will be drafted higher than they should be drafted.  Add a difference maker.  Can a slot WR be considered a difference maker?  Looking at last years offense, I’d answer yes.

From Albert Breer's column today:
 

'“If you have 15 first-round grades, then the class sucks,” said one general manager Saturday. “And I got less than 15 this year.”'

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/04/24/draft-team-needs-pick-predictions-analysis

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Seriously.  All the guys projected to go 20-30 could go 11-20…. Or even 30-40-50.  
 

this is why I don’t hate Downs @27.  That’s certainly not my preference, but I just want to add players that will improve our offense.   If the value isn’t there, so be it.  This draft is crap.  It’s almost as if whoever we draft @ 27 will be drafted higher than they should be drafted.  Add a difference maker.  Can a slot WR be considered a difference maker?  Looking at last years offense, I’d answer yes.

Stop saying things I agree with. My OCD kicks in and I have to keep giving a green check mark or a beer mug, etc.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yeah, that's new to me.  Kind of a bummer though, because I was hoping the Bills would be targeting this man-mountain.  He has a lot of physical traits that could make him special.  Plus seems like he would be amenable to starting out with a large blocking role.

 

But failing Medicals?  What happened?  Sounds bad.

Good.  Maybe we can snag him in rd 2

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yeah, that's new to me.  Kind of a bummer though, because I was hoping the Bills would be targeting this man-mountain.  He has a lot of physical traits that could make him special.  Plus seems like he would be amenable to starting out with a large blocking role.

 

But failing Medicals?  What happened?  Sounds bad.

I am dubious. The timing on this at least is pretty suspicious. But if it helps us get him at 59, maybe they're true . . . 

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Good.  Maybe we can snag him in rd 2

See what I mean? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I just bought a Jordan Addison Bills jersey.