NFL draft rumors 2023

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Honestly, in a draft like this, grabbing those former 5 star recruits isn't the worst way to do business. Play the risk reward game. Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders, Gervon Dexter, Trenton Simpson, Wanya Morris, Zach Harrison, Justin Shorter...

 

Anyway here is an article with all the 5 star guys in this draft: 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-former-five-star-recruits-bryce-young-jalen-carter-will-anderson-jr

Stefon Diggs was a five-star recruit! He went in the fifth round (bad qb at Maryland, some injuries). Just sayin'. 

[MrEpsYtown]

39 minutes ago, finn said:

Or Fred Rouse, Willie Williams, Ryan Perrilloux, Ben Olson, James Banks, Darrell Scott, Mitch Mustain, Kyle Wright.....

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/699015-college-football-recruiting-the-20-worst-5-star-recruiting-busts-of-the-2000s

Yeah I get it…The original point was that some of these big time recruits suffered in their development because of covid, and my point was that in a very weak draft, it makes sense to play that upside.
 

Mitch Mustain didn’t have to deal with covid, so the comparisons here are moot. Ofcourse there are misses every class.  

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Yeah I get it…The original point was that some of these big time recruits suffered in their development because of covid, and my point was that in a very weak draft, it makes sense to play that upside.
 

Mitch Mustain didn’t have to deal with covid, so the comparisons here are moot. Ofcourse there are misses every class.  

 

Just randomly chucking out Mitch Mustain as the example I loved it and laughed. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Honestly, in a draft like this, grabbing those former 5 star recruits isn't the worst way to do business. Play the risk reward game. Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders, Gervon Dexter, Trenton Simpson, Wanya Morris, Zach Harrison, Justin Shorter...

 

Anyway here is an article with all the 5 star guys in this draft: 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-former-five-star-recruits-bryce-young-jalen-carter-will-anderson-jr

 

 

So 35 of the players eligible for this draft are former 5 star recruits.

 

To put that in perspective for non-followers of college football/recruiting.........there are typically less than 30 in a recruiting class.

 

So to be honest,   I think it's been something of a surprise that this draft has ended up being viewed so poorly given the potential a lot of these players showed as recruits and even early in their careers.

 

Last year at this time there was a lot of "yeah but wait til' next year.......Jalen Carter is the best defender on the Georgia team and Will Anderson probably would have been the #1 pick if he declared" etc...

 

Addison, Njigba, Tillman, Hutchinson.........those were all guys who probably would have had 1st and 2nd round grades in a much better WR class if they came out.

 

2022 just really wasn't a great year for development of players from those 2019-2020 recruiting classes.

 

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Stefon Diggs was a five-star recruit! He went in the fifth round (bad qb at Maryland, some injuries). Just sayin'. 

It’s probably a lazy comparison by me, but I see some Diggs in Rakim Jarrett. Similar size, speed and profile and former 5 star guy. 

[Warriorspikes51]

 

[MrEpsYtown]

He probably likes ranch too. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

It’s probably a lazy comparison by me, but I see some Diggs in Rakim Jarrett. Similar size, speed and profile and former 5 star guy. 

 

 

Yeah and just maybe this draft will turn out to be an opportunity to steal some talent like Jarrett because some GM's are writing it off as a bad year.

 

I wouldn't throw my process out the window for any draft.

 

 A couple years ago this class looked like it might have both a high floor and ceiling.   There were A BUNCH of guys who one could envision as #1 overall picks.

 

There are no guarantees that next year or the year after will be better overall groups.    I think, as football fans,  we all wonder about the impact of lower participation in youth football on the NFL pipeline at positions other than QB.

 

I really would not be surprised to see the lesser roster with the better QB win most of the SB's in this decade(like we just saw).......and that colors my idea on team building if I am a GM.

[BADOLBILZ]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Stefon Diggs was a five-star recruit! He went in the fifth round (bad qb at Maryland, some injuries). Just sayin'. 

 

Yep you can always find 5 stars scattered around the board but when you have draft evaluators with close to HALF as many 1st rounders in a given draft than normal.......and that draft also has more 5 stars than average........that's a bit of an unusual combination.  

 

If we can't blame covid for disrupting critical, early career development.......then it may also more broadly indicate that the pipeline in general is not healthy.   Which is even less encouraging to consider.

[thenorthremembers]

11 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

He probably likes ranch too. 

I heard none of his college teammates were at his birthday party...just sayin.

[LabattBlue]

1st round grade, 2nd round grade? What is the difference?   What is the numerical grade they get?   If a 1st rounder is anything above a 7.0(just for example purposes), a guy graded 6.9 is terrible because he is considered a 2nd round grade?

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Joe B seems to think a Trade Up for a WR is likely

 

6) Who fits the profile this year?
 

Luckily for the Bills, that specific type of receiver makes up most of the top prospects. And in the first round, it boils down to four who should be a legitimate option at No. 27.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State – He mainly played slot receiver at Ohio State, but possesses the skills to move outside. He’s an outstanding, nuanced route runner with the shiftiness and agility to punish interior coverage defenders. At nearly 6-foot-1 and 196 pounds, the biggest of these four.

 

Zay Flowers, Boston College – Has experience playing both the perimeter and inside at slot, but at 5-foot-9, he’s the shortest prospect of these four. Flowers was an outstanding downfield target who’s a lot of fun to watch his speed of getting in and out of his breakdown. He is excellent at gaining yards after the catch, too.

 

Jordan Addison, USC – Addison mostly played the perimeter last year but mainly played as a slot receiver in 2021 at Pitt, so the versatility is there. He is right there with Smith-Njigba as a route runner and gains instant separation. Stylistically, Addison runs his routes similarly to Diggs. The troubling factor is that he weighed 173 pounds at his Pro Day.

 

Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee – The biggest projection of the four but with a legitimately high ceiling. Hyatt mostly played slot receiver and needs to develop his full route tree, but he comes from the same offense that yielded Davis, which could concern the Bills less than others. Like Addison, Hyatt is smaller at 176 pounds but has better deep-field speed.

If I had to rank them from a Bills’ perspective, I would probably put Smith-Njigba as the top prospect because he’d be an instant impact as their primary slot receiver. Flowers and Addison would rank 2A and 2B, as both could be excellent contributors in 2023. Either one would be worthy of a move up the board. Hyatt comes in fourth only because he’s more of a projection, though not far behind. But the Bills may have Hyatt a closer to the other two based on their comfortability with the college offense. If the Bills stayed at No. 27 and those first three are off the board, I would not be surprised if Hyatt is the selection.

 

7) What about TCU’s Quentin Johnston?

You may notice he’s missing among the above fits, but it’s because he doesn’t fit that versatile role we laid out as cleanly. Johnston isn’t as shifty as the others and, because of some tightness, doesn’t seem as suited to playing slot receiver as easily as the others. His best fit in the Bills’ offense likely would be in the Davis perimeter role, and the Bills may want to keep Davis for the long term. But if they were trying to find a replacement for Davis past 2023, Johnston would be in the equation.
 

😎 Why the Bills may need to get aggressive once the WR run starts

Even though the top receivers may lack a high-end prospect, that doesn’t reduce the receiver need of teams ahead of the Bills. Early in the pre-draft process, Smith-Njigba was going off the board as early as No. 11 to the Titans, but that has slowly been pushed down with some of the really plugged-in draft pundits. The thought-provoking Peter Schrager of NFL.com had Smith-Njigba off the board at No. 15. In his most recent mock, The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler had Smith-Njigba being the first receiver selected at No. 20. The Bills will obviously be in a much better spot if the run starts at Brugler’s projection. But the one thing they have in common is picks 20 through 26 being a hot spot for receivers getting selected. So if the Bills want one, they might need to be proactive — and we all know Beane tends to get antsy in the first round.

 

11) So then what are the ideal trade-up spots that meet cost and logic?

This is a layered answer, because it all depends on who is available. If Smith-Njigba is still on the board at No. 20, that would be a potential spot to target because the Seahawks may want him, and the Ravens could be interested. Seattle has a long history of trading down on draft day, too.
 

The Chargers would be another spot to target either Smith-Njigba or the pick of the second-best wide receiver if the Chargers wanted a tight end above all else. They’d still stay ahead of the Bengals at No. 28, while the Jaguars and Cowboys aren’t as big of threats to take one. Plus, the depth of the tight end class could help. But the higher cost might be prohibitive if the Bills are moving up for the second-best receiver.

The Ravens likely aren’t moving off a pick for another team to take a receiver. The Vikings and Jaguars don’t seem immediate threats to take a receiver, but the Giants are, which makes the Jaguars at No. 24 potentially the ideal trade-up spot to target. It would cost the Bills to drop 30 picks from No. 91, but that’s an entirely doable cost to potentially secure the second or third-best receiver in this year’s class. But if they don’t want to chance it with the Jaguars, the Vikings have only five picks this year, and would likely be very, very willing trade participants, potentially with the Bills getting a better value on a trade than usual.

No. 23 or No. 24 looks like the sweet spot of any Bills draft day trade up.

Good post.  
 

The only thing I’d disagree with is the Vikings aren’t a threat to take a WR.  I expect them to take a WR early.  Trading down would be ideal for them, as you said…. But if they can’t find someone to trade with, they are absolutely a threat to go WR

[dave mcbride]

43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yep you can always find 5 stars scattered around the board but when you have draft evaluators with close to HALF as many 1st rounders in a given draft than normal.......and that draft also has more 5 stars than average........that's a bit of an unusual combination.  

 

If we can't blame covid for disrupting critical, early career development.......then it may also more broadly indicate that the pipeline in general is not healthy.   Which is even less encouraging to consider.

Given what I know is going on in schools and colleges because of covid over the last couple of years, it wouldn't surprise me at all that this group was screwed up by it. One of my best friends is a fifth-grade teacher and has told me that covid has broken kids. And a close friend who is a Vanderbilt prof told me the same thing about college students there.  

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, in a discussion yesterday with @Chaos a similar point was made. attaching "rounds" to it can potentially be confusing for some people. Personally I think it makes it simpler but don't call them rounds if in your mind you equate a round with 32 picks. Call them tiers. Call them clusters. Call them groups. Whatever you want. 

 

I am definitely not the only one. I was listening to the podcast Rick Speilman has been doing this year on my morning commute he said he "rarely" had more than 18 true first round grades in his 10 plus years with the Vikings. It is the way NFL teams work. I designed my grading system after talking to someone who has been in draft rooms. 

 

When Brandon Beane says he would trade back if his first round is cleared out he means the guys in the first tier on his board. Teams grade and then brigade by round which is what I do. But you could easily call it something else.

The NFL system seems the most sophisticated and useful grading system:

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The NFL system seems the most sophisticated and useful grading system:

 

We are all using versions of the same thing. The fact the NFL doesn't apply the "rounds" moniker to it is the only difference. I get some people find that unhelpful. Personally I find it quite useful shorthand for distinguishing between levels.

[Chaos]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We are all using versions of the same thing. The fact the NFL doesn't apply the "rounds" moniker to it is the only difference. I get some people find that unhelpful. Personally I find it quite useful shorthand for distinguishing between levels.

I like that the values make easy to understand statements 8.0= Perennial All-Pro.  for example. Does not mean the evaluator is correct, there is just no dispute about what he mean. What does first round grade translate too in your system? 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We are all using versions of the same thing. The fact the NFL doesn't apply the "rounds" moniker to it is the only difference. I get some people find that unhelpful. Personally I find it quite useful shorthand for distinguishing between levels.

 

 

The fact that they all use the same system for a highly subjective analysis if proof that it's a great system. 

 

I take it all with a grain.   I just stacked players in the order I valued them for that specific draft.

 

The numerical value you apply is of not much value if the overall quality of the group is not the same from year to year........which it's not.

 

And using that number system to compare players of other drafts would have more merit if the whole process wasn't so wildly subjective to begin with.

 

But if I were employing a bunch of gym teachers to evaluate talent for me I would probably use a system just like that too.    It's corporate 101.  Helps keep everyone easily replaceable.

 

You don't want to see what hiring Ivy League minds to create EFFICIENT systems to boil your sport down to an extract does to the entertainment value of the entire process.    

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

I like that the values make easy to understand statements 8.0= Perennial All-Pro.  for example. Does not mean the evaluator is correct, there is just no dispute about what he mean. What does first round grade translate too in your system? 

 

 

In my system a 7.0 to 7.9 is a first roubd grade and equates to either: 10 year starter at a premium position, or elite potential within 2 years at a non-premium position. 

 

That is where from what I understand I most differ from what a lot of NFL teams do because I build positional value into my grading. What most NFL teams do is grade and then apply positional value when they build their board. But I am not building a team specific board, mine is a conventional big board, so I have to find another way of recognising it and so I build it into my grading scale.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In my system a 7.0 to 7.9 is a first roubd grade and equates to either: 10 year starter at a premium position, or elite potential within 2 years at a non-premium position. 

 

That is where from what I understand I most differ from what a lot of NFL teams do because I build positional value into my grading. What most NFL teams do is grade and then apply positional value when they build their board. But I am not building a team specific board, mine is a conventional big board, so I have to find another way of recognising it and so I build it into my grading scale.

 

Do you have a positional value chart to help with your math?

 

I had a scale where the QB position was worth 10.......a much more sensible top end number to use than the intentionally weird 4-8 grading system.  

 

Pass rusher 1 and LT were worth a 4 and then it gradually slid down by fractions from there.

 

 

[Dan in Owego]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Do you have a positional value chart to help with your math?

 

I had a scale where the QB position was worth 10.......a much more sensible top end number to use than the intentionally weird 4-8 grading system.  

 

Pass rusher 1 and LT were worth a 4 and then it gradually slid down by fractions from there.

 

 

Hey everybody it's someone pushing the metric system 🧐😂

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, Dan in Owego said:

Hey everybody it's someone pushing the metric system 🧐😂

 

I guess the 0 to 3.9 range on the NFL scouting system is to measure how hitter-ish random citizens look.  

[Warriorspikes51]

Starting to really like WR Jayden Reed. He mentioned Diggs as a player he models his game after

[Warriorspikes51]

Chris Simms one and only mock today has JSN to Bills at 27

[Richard Noggin]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Chris Simms one and only mock today has JSN to Bills at 27

 

That's insane. 

[Zerovoltz]

Just a point on the idea there are 15 or less first round grades by a GM.

 

I don't doubt it...I don't think it's a strong overall class...but One GM's list of 12 1st round grades won't be the same as the next.  It's entirely possible that at 27, the Bills could very well be drafting a guy who they had with a 1st round grade.

 

Another point...again, I agree this class is not at all top heavy, but I think it's probably pretty good because it is deep at CB, TE, and RB..and decent Oline in the mid rounds.  Weak at LB.  

 

So just because it's weak at the top doesn't mean a great player can't be had at 27...and it doesn't mean everything after pick 15 is garbage all the way through.  

 

 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That's insane. 

Why?

[mannc]

10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

From Albert Breer's column today:
 

'“If you have 15 first-round grades, then the class sucks,” said one general manager Saturday. “And I got less than 15 this year.”'

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/04/24/draft-team-needs-pick-predictions-analysis

These guys love to bad-mouth draft classes…happens every year.  
 

On the other hand, college football is broken, and that does not bode well for the NFL in the long term.

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Chris Simms one and only mock today has JSN to Bills at 27

 

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That's insane. 

 

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Why?

Chris Simms is pretty much the worst mock drafter. Last year’s was awful.
 

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[CaptnCoke11]

8 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

Chris Simms is pretty much the worst mock drafter. Last year’s was awful.
 

 

Nobody is good at mocks.  Not even the perceived best draft guys out there.  

[MrEpsYtown]

9 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Nobody is good at mocks.  Not even the perceived best draft guys out there.  

Most people get mocks wrong in terms of the exact spots guys go in, but are generally close in vicinity of where guys go.
 

Simms had two third rounders in the top 20. 
 

[4merper4mer]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Most people get mocks wrong in terms of the exact spots guys go in, but are generally close in vicinity of where guys go.
 

Simms had two third rounders in the top 20. 
 

Bellichick had one and it was an actual pick, not just a mock.  And he’ll be in the HOF

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

Chris Simms is pretty much the worst mock drafter. Last year’s was awful.
 

 

 

He was the 5th worst of 164 tracked mock drafters from the big outlets in 2022 and he is consistentky 

 

Albert Breer was the best last year, from Charlie Campbell in 2nd. 

 

Simms is in the bottom 10 or 15 most years.

Edited April 25, 2023 by GunnerBill

[mannc]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

Chris Simms is pretty much the worst mock drafter. Last year’s was awful.
 

 

That wasn't my question.  Why is JSN to the Bills “insane”?

[MrEpsYtown]

31 minutes ago, mannc said:

That wasn't my question.  Why is JSN to the Bills “insane”?

I interpreted that as “he won’t be there at 27”

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Chris Simms one and only mock today has JSN to Bills at 27

He got one right last year.  ONE.  Sauce Gardner to the Jets. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He got one right last year.  ONE.  Sauce Gardner to the Jets. 

 

 

In fairness to him he got Neal - Giants too although at the wrong spot. 

[mannc]

48 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I interpreted that as “he won’t be there at 27”

Kinda remains to be seen, no?  I mean, we’re talking about a likely slot receiver in the NFL, with a history of injuries.  Not crazy to think he could slip to 27.  FWIW, Simms loves JSN and has him as his number 2 WR in the draft.

[MrEpsYtown]

49 minutes ago, mannc said:

Kinda remains to be seen, no?  I mean, we’re talking about a likely slot receiver in the NFL, with a history of injuries.  Not crazy to think he could slip to 27.  FWIW, Simms loves JSN and has him as his number 2 WR in the draft.

 

Sure, but I think the consensus is that JSN is the first WR off the board and there is too much need to think that he would slide to 27. Most people have him in the top 10-15. Last year everyone had Chris Olave in the same spot and Simms had him slotted at 22. The last time the first receiver off the board went that late is 2019 with Hollywood Brown at 25. It just seems unlikely based on projections in such a weak draft. Could it happen? Sure. Last year George Karlaftis and Jermaine Johnson experienced an unlikely slide. Simms has Zay Flowers at 21 and JSN at 27 and the other two guys sliding out of the first.

 

Again, that just seems unlikely based on what everyone else is saying. But it looks like Simms gets there because he has ton of OL drafted in the first which pushes those guys down. He has two TEs go before a WR. He also has John Michael Schmitz, DJ Turner, and Hendon Hooker in the first. Some people have Hooker mocked in he first, but I haven't seen those other guys in there too much. It's just kind of unprecedented stuff.   

[mannc]

13 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Sure, but I think the consensus is that JSN is the first WR off the board and there is too much need to think that he would slide to 27. Most people have him in the top 10-15. Last year everyone had Chris Olave in the same spot and Simms had him slotted at 22. The last time the first receiver off the board went that late is 2019 with Hollywood Brown at 25. It just seems unlikely based on projections in such a weak draft. Could it happen? Sure. Last year George Karlaftis and Jermaine Johnson experienced an unlikely slide. Simms has Zay Flowers at 21 and JSN at 27 and the other two guys sliding out of the first.

 

Again, that just seems unlikely based on what everyone else is saying. But it looks like Simms gets there because he has ton of OL drafted in the first which pushes those guys down. He has two TEs go before a WR. He also has John Michael Schmitz, DJ Turner, and Hendon Hooker in the first. Some people have Hooker mocked in he first, but I haven't seen those other guys in there too much. It's just kind of unprecedented stuff.   

I think Simms is wrong about the WRs too; I think at least four go in round one, just because of need, and the fact that it’s a premium position.  But Simms pointed out that JSN has injury concerns and underwhelming measurables, and said a lot of people he’s spoken to in the league think he’s an overrated prospect.  As you point out, his mocks have not been real good, so we’ll see.

[mannc]

18 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Yeah.  You never hear there’s so many first round grades this draft you’ll get first round grade players in the 2nd round.  Lol. 

Scouts and GMs badmouth every draft class…if the class sucks, then they can’t be blamed for coming away with mediocre players.