Frazier: The hard FACTS on why many of us want a change.

[Alphadawg7]

I know Frazier is being talked about in different threads across the board.  But where I am taken back is the number of people making excuses for Frazier or absolving him of any responsibility or blame...or even mocking those who think a change is needed.

 

There is this one big thing that is commonly getting overlooked, and it's IMHO undeniable evidence that there is fundamental flaw in Frazier's defense vs the teams who have been in our way to get to the SB.

 

The past 3 years, our defense was dominated in the 3 playoff losses...but also, In all 3 seasons, those very same offenses that dominated our defense were held in check or shut down literally the following week by their next opponent who mostly had much lower ranked defenses than us, and ALL 3 lost their next game.  

 

The big difference was clearly game plan and play calling.  Bills in 2 of those years had by far the better defense during the season, yet fared terrible in comparison.

 

Bills defensive rankings last 3 years:

• 2020 - 15th (lost to Chiefs)
• 2021 - 1st (lost to Chiefs)
• 2022 - 2nd (lost to Bengals)
• COMBINED:  107 points, 1403 yards those offenses scored on us.

 

Defensive rankings of the teams that beat the team that beat us the very next week:

• 2020 - Bucs 8th (beat Chiefs)
• 2021 - Bengals 16th (beat Chiefs)
• 2022 - Cheifs 17th (beat Bengals)
• COMBINED:  53 points, 1034 yards those same offenses scored in their very next game (all losses) after beating us.

 

So our defense combined to give up twice as many points and almost 40% more yards than what those same offenses managed to do against their next opponent the very next week (in which they lost all 3 times).  And mostly against statistically inferior defenses to our own. 

 

All 3 seasons, our defense was dominated by the offenses we faced in our postseason loss:  Chiefs, Chiefs, and Bengals.  All 3 would go on to lose the very NEXT week with their offenses being shutdown or held in check: 

 

• 2020 - AFC Championship Game - Bills @ KC:  Our defense is helpless against the Chiefs who have their way offensively against us.  Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.  Chiefs win the game with ease because our offense also showed poorly.
  • Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.
• 2021 - AFC Divisional Round - Bills @ KC:  Our #1 ranked defense gives up 42 points, including 17 points in the final 2 min of the game and OT that included the 13 second debacle before completely laying down in OT.  Chiefs win the game.
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  
• 2022 - AFC Divisional Round - Cincy @ Bills:  Finally a home game, and despite bad weather (allegedly some sort of "competitive advantage" for the BIlls) and Cincy missing THREE starters on the OL (their weakest unit the past seasons even when healthy), our #2 ranked defense let the Cincy offense dominate the LOS and the Bengals got very little resistance from the Bills defense.  Bengals win.  
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  In a rematch of the previous season, Chiefs 17th ranked defense holds the Bengals offense in check and win a close game giving up only 20 points.

 

That is pretty astounding to look at and a strong indicator of just how poor our game-plan and play calling was in those games.  Especially the last 2 years when we had the #1 and #2 Defense entering the postseason respectively.  Even with the 15th ranked D in 2020, that is NO EXCUSE when you see defenses ranked 16th and 17th still perform well in 2021 and 2022 against similar potent offenses.  

 

And forget the stats, just watch all 6 of these games...the evidence and countless examples were right there on the screen, and it's clear as day why those other defenses had more success than our own.  

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  I just don't know how anyone can overlook how defenses that were mediocre all season fare so much better against the same offenses that Fraziers #1 and #2 ranked defenses perform so badly against.  

 

Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT lay-down last year where we gave up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of that game and OT.  I mean Kelce utterly schooled Frazier on national TV in those 13 seconds mocking his defense while mic'd up and said hit me in the seem if they are just gonna play it like that...which they did, and which Mahomes and Kelce did with ease like it was 7 on 7 out there.

 

THIS is why many of us want a change.  Not a hot take, not social media influence, not anything other than his continued postseason flops.  

 

 

[US Egg]

Not winning when it was expected to be a given always hurts a little more.

[Bill from NYC]

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

[Freddie's Dead]

*****in' A, Bubba!

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

 

I totally get McD has his influence on the defense, but the reality is Frazier is calling the defense in game.  Tim Graham even reported that McD was screaming before the snap when he saw our DB's playing 10 yards off the LOS on a critical 3rd and 4 against the elite Bengals WR's.  Frazier made that call.  And this was an issue, this play was even mentioned by Beane in his end of the year presser.  

 

And we know McD isn't going anywhere this next season, so make the change where you can make the change.  You don't even have to fire Frazier, his contract is up, just hire someone new.  While McD will still have his influence on the D, maybe a new DC won't make stupid calls like that against potent offenses.

 

Take the 13 seconds debacle for example...Kelce humiliated Frazier on National TV being mic'd up.  He literally told Pat if they are gonna play it like that again (which we did even though it didn't work at all on the first pass that Hill got a bunch of yards on) just to hit him in the seem for an easy catch.  Ball is snapped, Kelce screams at Pat and they make an easy throw to set up the FG attempt.  

 

These are calls being made in game by Frazier.  The Bengals and Chiefs DC didn't make those same blunders when they faced our opponent the very next week and slowed those offenses down and won the games.   

[LABILLBACKER]

I could care less what our defensive ranking or DVOA is in the regular season. Josh playing Superman gets us in the playoffs.  Frazier and his weak predictable zone with zero pass rush gets us booted. Sure we can barely squeak by a weak 1st round opponent with a garbage qb ( Colts, NE, Mia.) because again Josh plays Superman with little offensive support.  But when divisionals roll around its soft zone, no pass rush and adios.  You'd think the McF apologists would've seen this movie before. 

[LittleSammy]

Now don't try and fool us with accurate facts and appropriate and valid support of the points you presented.

[ExiledInIllinois]

Can't compete in the post-season without getting there first. 

[Frostbite]

Frazier doesnt call anything different than his base scheme. He's admitted multiple times his defense will not do anything differently to combat matchup issues. The reason KC handled Cinci is KC adjusted and called a game that would interfere with what Cinci wanted to do. Look at Tomlin against the Ravens late this season - Tomlin stacked the line with 5 linemen/3 LBs and dared Balt/Huntly to throw it. You dont need to be this drastic but have some situational awareness at a minimum and call a game that's not so damn predictable/conservative. 

[Warcodered]

I guess we know this must be true since "FACTS" is in all capital letters?

[LABILLBACKER]

5 minutes ago, Frostbite said:

Frazier doesnt call anything different than his base scheme. He's admitted multiple times his defense will not do anything differently to combat matchup issues. The reason KC handled Cinci is KC adjusted and called a game that would interfere with what Cinci wanted to do. Look at Tomlin against the Ravens late this season - Tomlin stacked the line with 5 linemen/3 LBs and dared Balt/Huntly to throw it. You dont need to be this drastic but have some situational awareness at a minimum and call a game that's not so damn predictable/conservative. 

Exactly....you should have a different situational defensive gameplan for every opponent.  Every single team is different and has different areas to attack.  Leslie just writes up the same lineup card and strategy every single week.  No wonder come playoff time It's incredibly easy for an offense to gameplan against us.

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I guess we know this must be true since "FACTS" is in all capital letters?

 

Or you can read the post and see the information being presented are the facts of the results of these games.  Theres that too...or just keep adding little to the thread with silly unnecessary comments is another approach too, to each their own.

[billieve420]

37 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

 

Hence why McDermott should be on the hot seat next season which won't happen. He needs to take ownership of his defense which has underperformed come playoff time and call the plays on gameday.

[Jim]

14 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Can't compete in the post-season without getting there first. 

So if we lose Loseley Frazier we won’t get into the post season anymore? Uh oh! Better keep him then. Stupid me, this whole time I thought it was Josh Allen and Stef Diggs. Now I find out it’s Loseley, Boogie, AJ and Ed.

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Can't compete in the post-season without getting there first. 

 

Wait..so are you saying another DC couldn't do a good enough job on a defense the past 2 years that ranked first and second in the league for the Bills to make the playoffs?  As if Frazier was the only one capable of helping us make the playoffs?

[DrDawkinstein]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Or you can read the post and see the information being presented are the facts of the results of these games.  Theres that too...or just keep adding little to the thread with silly unnecessary comments is another approach too, to each their own.

 

There are definitely FACTS presented.

 

But I'm not sure it's a valid logical conclusion to say "The teams the Bills lose to have poor Offensive performances the next week, so therefore <conclusion>"

 

Seems a bit correlation = causation at face value, but I'm still digesting that big first post.

[Bill from NYC]

33 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I totally get McD has his influence on the defense, but the reality is Frazier is calling the defense in game.  Tim Graham even reported that McD was screaming before the snap when he saw our DB's playing 10 yards off the LOS on a critical 3rd and 4 against the elite Bengals WR's.  Frazier made that call.  And this was an issue, this play was even mentioned by Beane in his end of the year presser.  

 

And we know McD isn't going anywhere this next season, so make the change where you can make the change.  You don't even have to fire Frazier, his contract is up, just hire someone new.  While McD will still have his influence on the D, maybe a new DC won't make stupid calls like that against potent offenses.

 

Take the 13 seconds debacle for example...Kelce humiliated Frazier on National TV being mic'd up.  He literally told Pat if they are gonna play it like that again (which we did even though it didn't work at all on the first pass that Hill got a bunch of yards on) just to hit him in the seem for an easy catch.  Ball is snapped, Kelce screams at Pat and they make an easy throw to set up the FG attempt.  

 

These are calls being made in game by Frazier.  The Bengals and Chiefs DC didn't make those same blunders when they faced our opponent the very next week and slowed those offenses down and won the games.   

McDermott is the head coach. He also has more power than Beane due to the fact that he pretty much hired him. Fans can gather around him as they choose, and many do so because they are enthralled by the term "process" which he plagiarized. He has been here long enough to correct deficiencies on defense, as well as the lack of protection and weapons for a great quarterback. I dont understand your ferverent support for McDermott but I respect your opinion and obviously I'm entitled to mine.

 

As always, thanks for the dialogue.

 

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

This is what I’ve been saying all along. This defense works really well during the regular season facing mid-level competition the majority of the time but they’re really good teams seem to completely destroy it.

[balln]

It’s coaching. Even if Von Miller and Micah Hyde playing they’re still losing. Wrong scheme. Wrong game plan. 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is the head coach. He also has more power than Beane due to the fact that he pretty much hired him. Fans can gather around him as they choose, and many do so because they are enthralled by the term "process" which he plagiarized. He has been here long enough to correct deficiencies on defense, as well as the lack of protection and weapons for a great quarterback. I dont understand your ferverent support for McDermott but I respect your opinion and obviously I'm entitled to mine.

 

As always, thanks for the dialogue.

 

 

 

I am not so sure about the bolded. McDermott recommended to the Pegula's they hire Beane. The Pegula's listened. Terry said in an interview back when they were hired that both men will report to him. He said Sean has the final say when it comes to coaching the team, running practices, team meetings etc etc etc. But Brandon has the final say with the draft, FA, and putting the roster together. 

[Dubie54]

The lack of urgency on the part of Beane and McD going all the way back to the Chiefs game last year and through this year's playoff to get rid of Frazier and bring someone in who can elevate this defense is inexcusable. They have a huge blind spot when it comes to Frazier and I just don't get it. Is it because McD wants a symbolic DC he can tell what to do? Available DCs might be attracted to an opportunity in Buffalo but don't want to be a DC in name only.   

[Mr. WEO]

Soooo......resign Edmunds, right?

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

There are definitely FACTS presented.

 

But I'm not sure it's a valid logical conclusion to say "The teams the Bills lose to have poor Offensive performances the next week, so therefore <conclusion>"

 

Seems a bit correlation = causation at face value, but I'm still digesting that big first post.

 

If one is to read my thread title...its states the hard facts on why many of us want a change.  Meaning, we want a change based on these factual results that we are not satisfied with.  Doesn't at all mean our "opinion" of wanting a change is the "hard facts".   

 

[Bermuda Triangle]

Alpha, to piggyback on your point, look at the Bengals' offensive outputs in the weeks leading up to the Divisional Round Game:

 

vs. Baltimore (WC Game):  17 offensive points, 234 yards

vs. Baltimore (Week 18): 20 offensive points, 257 yards

vs. NE (Week 16):22 offensive points (none after halftime), 442 yards

vs. TB (Week 15): 34 offensive points, 237 yards [TB had 4 turnovers, which resulted in short fields for CIN]

vs. CLE (Week 14): 23 offensive points, 363 yards

 

As we know, CIN was having its way with the Bills defense in Week 16, prior to the Hamlin incident.

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If one is to read my thread title...its states the hard facts on why many of us want a change.  Meaning, we want a change based on these factual results that we are not satisfied with.  Doesn't at all mean our "opinion" of wanting a change is the "hard facts".   

 

Yes but AD, I think that many posters might think that Frazier is the main cause of our problems. The OP  named Frazier as the culprit, no? 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Here is a great in depth analysis by the Cover One guys of our D philosophy, schematics and resulting weaknesses in the playoffs—specifically the amount of checks required to make it run smoothly and how motion run against us (#1 in the NFL in terms of how often we see pre snap motion) can overwhelm the checks system Frazier’s D relies on out of base nickel. Worth a look. 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If one is to read my thread title...its states the hard facts on why many of us want a change.  Meaning, we want a change based on these factual results that we are not satisfied with.  Doesn't at all mean our "opinion" of wanting a change is the "hard facts".   

 

They are facts but all the facts are telling me is we’re not as good as the Chiefs and Bengals.

 

But anyways, offer up the change. Is there a defensive coach out there that has had success vs Mahomes? 

[Nephilim17]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Is there a defensive coach out there that has had success vs Mahomes? 

I think that's exactly what the OP is saying:

 

Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.

 

AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  

[sven233]

The thing is, our defense is very much a player-based defense.  It isn't about the X's and O's.  Without getting into explicit detail as to what our scheme is and how we play defense, I'll try and break it down into an easy way to understand it.

 

It is a very basic defense overall, but talent, particularly on the back end with White, Hyde, and Poyer executing at a high level makes what we do on defense possible.  The idea is to use great athletes to cover a lot of ground in hopes that we can get to the QB with 4 and force the other team into mistakes.  And when we have a pass rush, and are facing average to below average QBs and talent, the system we run can excel.  And during the regular season, we see a lot of teams like that and our defense can put up great numbers more often than not.

 

The problem is, when you get to the playoffs, the players on the other teams we play are just as good, or at least pretty close to us talent wise.  And the QBs we play are, for the most part, very good to elite.  You can't get away with the same stuff against really good teams as you can against those with lesser talent, especially if you can't get the the QB.  In the last few years when we have been in the Playoffs, we can't get to the QB at all.  Not even close.  And, when that's the case, the weapons these other teams have are going to get open against our zone defense that inherently has holes and weak spots in it.  Great players are going to find the soft spots and make plays no matter how good the back end plays because QBs have all the time in the world to sit back and make the right decisions as they already know where the defense will be vulnerable if given enough time. There is no real change in scheme from week to week, and teams know where the weaknesses are in this defense if there is no pressure on the QB.  If there was a consistent pass rush, there is no doubt the system can be effective because it does take away a lot of initial reads and makes it look like the entire field is covered at times, but the longer plays go, the more weak spots appear.  Unfortunately for us, in the biggest games the last few seasons, we have been picked apart by good QBs because they never got touched.  Von was supposed to be the piece of the puzzle to make sure we finally got that consistent pressure, but he was watching from the sideline injured and nobody stepped up to take his place and dominate.

 

So, what do we do?  Hope everyone stays healthy this year and run it back with a simple and potentially solid defense that the players already know like the back of their hands hoping we get that pass rush in the Playoffs next year or do we go in a completely different direction where the scheme changes week to week based on opponent and maybe make a couple of mistakes here and there?

 

I know, personally, I am ready to see something different that doesn't count on the line getting to the QB in 2.5 seconds or less to be successful.  Also, seeing a defense that doesn't play their DBs 15 yards off the LOS when blitzing on 3rd and short would be a nice change of pace as well.  I am ready to start scheming up ways to slow down what offenses like to do rather than just try to be fundamentally sound and perfect using the same defensive scheme week in and week out.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

I think that's exactly what the OP is saying:

 

Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.

 

AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  

Neither DC is available.

[ExiledInIllinois]

49 minutes ago, Jim said:

So if we lose Loseley Frazier we won’t get into the post season anymore? Uh oh! Better keep him then. Stupid me, this whole time I thought it was Josh Allen and Stef Diggs. Now I find out it’s Loseley, Boogie, AJ and Ed.

Maybe...

 

Actually, the D was getting them there.

47 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Wait..so are you saying another DC couldn't do a good enough job on a defense the past 2 years that ranked first and second in the league for the Bills to make the playoffs?  As if Frazier was the only one capable of helping us make the playoffs?

Maybe.

 

Disrupting things always seems to work!  /sarcasm...

[GerstAusGosheim]

It's McD's defense and it's time for him to go. Josh is going to be 27 at the start of the next season. With the beating he's taken behind this line, he may only have 5 good years left. We need to stop wasting this talent.

[Alphadawg7]

51 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yes but AD, I think that many posters might think that Frazier is the main cause of our problems. The OP  named Frazier as the culprit, no? 

Fair response, but the answer is no.  Fraziers contract is up, an actual decision has to be made to actually bring him back.  The case I’m presenting is why many of us are against that decision because we have seen other defensive coordinators with less talented defenses have significantly more success against the same offenses that Fraziers defense has played their worst football against.

 

We have other issues as a whole, like OL and another WR.  Dorsey IMO was also a weak spot, but he’s also only got one year under his belt as the OC where Frazier has been here as the DC a long time and the results are not getting any better despite significant investments into the defense, continuity, player growth, etc.  

 

So this thread is specifically about Frazier, essentially the free agent DC whose contract has expired and why many of us do not feel he should be brought back based on his results and lack of improvement on the field.

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

It's McD's defense and it's time for him to go. Josh is going to be 27 at the start of the next season. With the beating he's taken behind this line, he may only have 5 good years left. We need to stop wasting this talent.

 

Which is why building the OL is so important. It's not just protecting Allen while he is in the pocket. They need a strong running game with the RB's doing the running. The less Josh runs the better. Otherwise, he is going down the same road as Cam Newton.

[Success]

Good analysis, OP - very detailed.  There is also the almighty "eye test," which I go by more often than not. And our D fails that, even in the regular season when we're leading in some categories.  But definitely in the playoffs, when it seems like our offense just has to keep scoring for us to have a chance.

 

The old adage "defense wins championships" is not a cliche.  It's a real thing.  There are obviously exceptions, but more often than not, the defense spearheads the big wins in the SB.

 

So what's the scoop?  If they were going to move on from Frazier, would they have done so already?  Or is there still a chance that they'll make a change there?  I would think it would have to be next week at the latest....

 

[BillsFan130]

Great against average to mediocre QBs.

 

Horrible against great QBs.

 

Yep its definitely time to make a change IMO, I wanted him out after the 13 second debacle game

[Bermuda Triangle]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Great against average to mediocre QBs.

 

 

Except for Zach Wilson earlier this season

[Gregg]

4 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Great against average to mediocre QBs.

 

Horrible against great QBs.

 

Yep its definitely time to make a change IMO, I wanted him out after the 13 second debacle game

 

The Vikings game this year was another sign that the D wasn't great. Up 27-10 with a minute left in the 3rd quarter at home and they still lose the game.

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Maybe.

 

Disrupting things always seems to work!  /sarcasm...

 

Ughhh huh?  Ok, let's do it your way...let's bring back Rob Ryan because "disrupting" things when we fired him was clearly a mistake.  While we are at it, let's fix our other mistake and try and lure Rex Ryan out of the booth because disrupting the team and firing him to hire McD was clearly a mistake too.  I mean who needs disruption when you can just stick with what isn't working right?  Because change never works.  

 

*sarcasm* 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The Vikings game this year was another sign that the D wasn't great. Up 27-10 with a minute left in the 3rd quarter at home and they still lose the game.

 

After a special teams blunder, and Josh fumbling a snap, yea.