Bills now no longer have 2 fifths but one fifth and one sixth

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

I had two fifths before the Bengals game…and only one left after..

[2003Contenders]

It's funny. At this time last year many of us were wanting the Bills to trade UP because the roster seemed so deep, and we just needed a couple of impact players at key positions. A year later we see that perhaps we overestimated the roster make-up -- and with the cap situation the Bills are in, there is unlikely to be much help gained from free agency.

 

Whether the team tries to trade up or down, I think they need to try to maximize picks in the first 3 rounds, as that is going to be the best shot at finding players that can contribute right away. If they see great value in the 2nd round, for example, maybe they trade down from the 1st and pick up an extra 3rd. With the offensive line being the greatest liability, you can normally find good players in the 2nd round, especially along the interior.

 

Another possibility, I would like to see the team do what they did a decade ago when they drafted Eric Wood late in the first -- and then combined a 3rd and 4th to move back into the late 2nd to take Levitre. Two solid interior linemen for the Bills. At the same time, they held onto their 2nd round pick and drafted Byrd there to play safety. If we can come away with 2 linemen like that coupled with the BAP in the 2nd round, I would be quite pleased.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Doubly frustrating then on how little and poorly he was used.

Bills would not have won the Wild Card game against Miami without his contributions.

2 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

It's funny. At this time last year many of us were wanting the Bills to trade UP because the roster seemed so deep, and we just needed a couple of impact players at key positions. A year later we see that perhaps we overestimated the roster make-up -- and with the cap situation the Bills are in, there is unlikely to be much help gained from free agency.

 

Whether the team tries to trade up or down, I think they need to try to maximize picks in the first 3 rounds, as that is going to be the best shot at finding players that can contribute right away. If they see great value in the 2nd round, for example, maybe they trade down from the 1st and pick up an extra 3rd. With the offensive line being the greatest liability, you can normally find good players in the 2nd round, especially along the interior.

 

Another possibility, I would like to see the team do what they did a decade ago when they drafted Eric Wood late in the first -- and then combined a 3rd and 4th to move back into the late 2nd to take Levitre. Two solid interior linemen for the Bills. At the same time, they held onto their 2nd round pick and drafted Byrd there to play safety. If we can come away with 2 linemen like that coupled with the BAP in the 2nd round, I would be quite pleased.

 

 

This year’s 3rd and 4th probably won’t even get you to the top of the 3rd.

 https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

 

[Goin Breakdown]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Doubly frustrating then on how little and poorly he was used.

This is a silly question I'd imagine but here I go.... is it wrong to think that maybe this is why they used him so little?  Maybe. Trying to not have to give up a higher pick?  I'm not saying it's the right thing to have done or even the reason they didn't use him. I'm just wondering. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

After reading this thread I feel like I need to drink a fifth

 

[Billl]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Me too. Unless someone drops to #27 that we don't expect slide back, pick up a 3rd or an early 4th. Try and end with 4 picks in the top 100 or so. You probably are not missing out on someone who is significantly better between 27 and 40 tbh. 

This makes no sense to me.  Beane has already established that he can draft all the roster-filler he needs whether it’s in the second round or the sixth.  Wouldn’t it be better for him to move up in the draft and target someone he thinks is going to be elite?  All the cap money has already been pushed in.  Might as well take some huge swings in the draft.  Go get the next superstar WR to pair with Diggs.

 

There’s a really strong chance this team is a tear down in a season or two, especially if Miller and White don’t return to form.  Adding a few more Spencer Browns, Boogie Bashams, and Gabe Davises aren’t going to make the Bills leapfrog the Bengals.  A Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson might, though.

[without a drought]

Don't let his -3 yards rushing fool you, he was active for 9 games.

 

Just remember it took Reggie Bush 12 carries to accomplish what Hines did with only 6.

[SCBills]

6 hours ago, Success said:

 

I wouldn't even say the jury is out on Elam.  That guy can cover receivers.

 

He'll only get better.  It wouldn't surprise me if he was our best corner in '23, though I expect Tre to get back to form.  I think our secondary in general could be one of the top units in the league.

 

But, I do tend to lean homer. So, there's that.

 

I don’t think it’s crazy to say this. 
 

I like Elam’s game a lot.  No idea what the problem was with McD & Frazier here. 
 

Judging by ACL timelines, if Tre is going to be that guy again, it will happen this year. 
 

Taron Johnson is a top 5 slot corner. 
 

Micah Hyde back at Safety.  Let’s hope he’s back to 100. 
 

The potential of 4/5th’s of this secondary is honestly a top secondary in the NFL.   We’ll see what they do at the other Safety spot. 

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

After reading this thread I feel like I need to drink a fifth

 

Beat you too it !!

 

 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Success said:

 

I wouldn't even say the jury is out on Elam.  That guy can cover receivers.

 

He'll only get better.  It wouldn't surprise me if he was our best corner in '23, though I expect Tre to get back to form.  I think our secondary in general could be one of the top units in the league.

 

But, I do tend to lean homer. So, there's that.

 

 

Agreed, I thought he was much better this year than the coaches gave him credit for. For a rookie CB coming into a league with more great WRs than ever before I was very impressed with his play. One of just a couple defensive players that made game changing plays this year, with interceptions against KC and Miami in the wildcard game that arguably won us those games. He managed to shut down Tyreek Hill in two games. When's the last time we had a CB that could do that? He appears to have the right attitude too so I'm sure he will only get better.

 

Elam's lack of playing time this season is one of the many reasons I have recently soured on this coaching staff. Some of their decisions just don't make any sense. Scratching him for Xavier Rhodes off the practice squad? I don't get it. Put him on the Chiefs and he probably starts the entire season and we're all talking about how Beane missed out on a promising CB. So frustrating.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

This makes no sense to me.  Beane has already established that he can draft all the roster-filler he needs whether it’s in the second round or the sixth.  Wouldn’t it be better for him to move up in the draft and target someone he thinks is going to be elite?  All the cap money has already been pushed in.  Might as well take some huge swings in the draft.  Go get the next superstar WR to pair with Diggs.

 

There’s a really strong chance this team is a tear down in a season or two, especially if Miller and White don’t return to form.  Adding a few more Spencer Browns, Boogie Bashams, and Gabe Davises aren’t going to make the Bills leapfrog the Bengals.  A Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson might, though.

 

I don't think the Bills are a year or two away from a tear down. A re-set, yes. Trading up for an elite player might make more sense in a better draft. There ain't a Tyreek Hilll or a Justin Jefferson to be had in this class. To get into the territory to get an elite player in this draft (and it is likely a defensive lineman) you need to go far enough up that it means giving up next year's first. And that makes no sense in a relatively pedestrian draft. 

 

EDIT: if last year's receiver crop was in this draft I'd be all about going up for a Williams, Wilson or Olave. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by GunnerBill

[JGMcD2]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Bills drafting 2017-2019 stands up to any team in the league. 2020-2022 so far feels more middle of the road. I think it was @JGMcD2 who had an interesting metric last year. I'd be interested to see those two periods broken down in that way. 

Funny you mention that… I broke that down recently. I’ll update my post some time this week.

 

If I recall correctly, they were #1 from 17-19 and #11 from 20-22. 

[HamSandwhich]

20 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The condition was “If the player returns 2 Kickoffs against a divisional opponent while below freezing, the pick turns into a 5th”

 

Seemed like a great condition originally. 

You forgot the stipulation that it had to be in response to a harrowing event that cancelled the game of the century the week before. 

[JGMcD2]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Bills drafting 2017-2019 stands up to any team in the league. 2020-2022 so far feels more middle of the road. I think it was @JGMcD2 who had an interesting metric last year. I'd be interested to see those two periods broken down in that way. 

 

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the Bills are a year or two away from a tear down. A re-set, yes. Trading up for an elite player might make more sense in a better draft. There ain't a Tyreek Hilll or a Justin Jefferson to be had in this class. To get into the territory to get an elite player in this draft (and it is likely a defensive lineman) you need to go far enough up that it means giving up next year's first. And that makes no sense in a relatively pedestrian draft. 

 

EDIT: if last year's receiver crop was in this draft I'd be all about going up for a Williams, Wilson or Olave. 

Are we sure there’s no Tyreek Hill? Because he was fifth round pick from West Alabama. There always seem to be guys like that who pop out of the woodwork who we have no idea about because for whatever reason they’re playing in nowhere programs (I do realize why Hill was there).

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Are we sure there’s no Tyreek Hill? Because he was fifth round pick from West Alabama. There always seem to be guys like that who pop out of the woodwork who we have no idea about because for whatever reason they’re playing in nowhere programs (I do realize why Hill was there).

 

I was talking in the context of a trade up in round 1. I mean there is no obvious Tyreek Hill who you go "that guy could be a stud, worth giving up picks for."

 

Last year's WR crop was the one to do that with if you were going to do it.

[Mr. WEO]

[Gugny]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was talking in the context of a trade up in round 1. I mean there is no obvious Tyreek Hill who you go "that guy could be a stud, worth giving up picks for."

 

Last year's WR crop was the one to do that with if you were going to do it.

 

Great move waiting until Round 5 to get a WR, eh!?

[NoSaint]

On 2/7/2023 at 7:22 AM, strive_for_five_guy said:

Wonder what level of playing time/production it was conditional upon

Active for the remainder of the season, I assume 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Great move waiting until Round 5 to get a WR, eh!?

 

Well, quite. Although to get one of those 5 would have meant a trade up and indeed the Saints, Lions and Titans did trade up for their guy. 

 

The gamble the Bills could have taken and I was on board with it at the time was Christian Watson. He stated slow (to be expected, he is raw) but from week 10 onwards looked like a proper player.

[cba fan]

On 2/7/2023 at 7:15 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

I still don't see why the fifth round pick has to be from Arizona.  And does that apply to the pick's school, or state of residence? 🤔🤨

*
😁 I know...New England gets a conditional draft pick because I asked...

i believe when you do a trade with conditional picks that depends on player performance or other factor on new team, the conditional pick must be your *original pick.

 

i guess other team might want to try and make the conditional pick a conditional conditional pick. By putting in language in the trade that the conditional pick must be the highest pick in the round in question. But then team with two picks would just trade that higher pick to some other team to get assests to get better value if the player performance or other factor would kick in to claim that higher pick. 

 

It seems every *conditional pick is the team's original pick.

On 2/7/2023 at 7:11 AM, dave mcbride said:

Hines’ playing time/production exacted a fifth round pick rather than a sixth from the Bills. The Bills have six picks in total now - one each in rounds one through six. Definitely not great for an important draft year. The picks are all late-round ones except for the fifth rounder, which is from AZ. I have to think they’ll try desperately to trade out of the late first for more picks unless a player they love at either WR or OL falls to them.

.

 

 

what kinda week ass contract incentive would have Hines so little playing time Q for a higher pick? Stupid to agree to this by Beane.

Edited February 8, 2023 by cba fan

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, cba fan said:

i believe when you do a trade with conditional picks that depends on player performance or other factor on new team, the conditional pick must be your *original pick.

 

i guess other team might want to try and make the conditional pick a conditional conditional pick. By putting in language in the trade that the conditional pick must be the highest pick in the round in question. But then team with two picks would just trade that higher pick to some other team to get assests to get better value if the player performance or other factor would kick in to claim that higher pick. 

 

Wut?! 🤔

*
😁

[Straight Hucklebuck]

And I hear tone deaf discussions on Locked On Bills or Cover 1 where it’s like go ahead and spend some

draft picks on LB, DE, DT, S.

 

Guys, we have 6 picks. You don’t have all this draft capital to keep investing in DLine.

 

Allen needs better players around him. 
 

Drafting a RB is not what we’re talking about here. 
 

Dedicated Special Teams converted Safety may be McDermott’s preference but it’s not going to help the team.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[AuntieEm]

On 2/7/2023 at 8:15 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

I still don't see why the fifth round pick has to be from Arizona.  And does that apply to the pick's school, or state of residence? 🤔🤨

*
😁 I know...New England gets a conditional draft pick because I asked...

 

  Reading comprehension alert....  says the pick going to Colts is the Bills pick.  The one from AZ for Cody Ford is still Bills pick  and it's the better pick of the two order wise.