Reassessing the Over-Reactions to the Divisional Round

[BernieBill]

The Bills are in major trouble.  Sean McDermott is not the right head coach for Josh Allen and each year McDermott remains coach, that's another wasted year in Josh Allen's career.  The Chiefs and Bengals are way better than the Bills.  You cannot have a home playoff game in the snow in Buffalo and put up the garbage performance the McDermott-led Bills just put up.  McDermott is not in the same class as Andy Reid, Zac Taylor, Nick Sirianni, Kyle Shanahan, etc.  When the Bills were bottom-dwellers, a hire like McDermott seemed reasonable ... but then you hit the lottery and draft Josh Allen and suddenly a defensive-minded little engine that could head coach is completely overmatched.  The Bills defense could not stop elite teams 3 straight years in the playoffs ... and the Bills offense this year ended the season with a disgusting 10-point output.  The Bills need an offensive-minded head coach to maximize the Josh Allen years and the Bills need root and branch change on the defensive side of the ball (new DC, etc.).

[Billsfan1972]

8 minutes ago, boyst said:

The first super bowl is win within 5 yrs. 

 

It was a stat discussed in NFLN. I'm too lazy to look it up... Wait. I'm at work... Meh here goes. 

 

As of 2017

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/amp/

 

To my knowledge still true

So McD & Allen now are toast and Cincy has a 2 year window with Burrow & Taylor. 

 

More importantly has McD done anything to help Allen as a QB?

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Now that the Championship games are over, I'd like to hear opinions on:

1. Are the Bills inside or outside the top tier of the AFC?  (Did the Bills have a bad game against the Bengals or are the Bills clearly inferior to the Bengals & Chiefs?)
2. What's the take on the Eagles?  (Have they been tested yet?  Played the 5th string QB for SF!! (Purdy w/no arm!)  Now they will play the Chiefs - who are so banged up they are thanking God there is 2 weeks until the SB.)

 

My Take:

1. The Bills are in the conversation!  They played their worst game since the Indy game early in 2021.  They were 14-4 this year (not 4-14).  Unfortunately that last game will stay in our mouths until September.
2. The Eagles have had it easy this year and I honestly don't know if they're as good as the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills.  However, much like their season, they will be facing a diminished opponent in their next game (wounded Chiefs).  Maybe a healthier Bengals team would have been a more formidable opponent for them.  Can Mahomes work his magic one more week?

I disagree on the Eagles.  I think their strengths matchup really against Kansas City.  Plus KC is not going to be healthy even with the extra week of rest.
 

Hurts is not as good as Mahomes, Allen, Burrow etc but he really doesn’t have to be in that offense.   If he can hit the deep ball, which he failed to do versus SF, I think he’s a SB champion 

[Gregg]

26 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Hurts looked massively overrated yesterday...basically looked like a very VERY poor man's Josh Allen when healthy without the ability to stiff arm DLinemen to the ground or run over LBs.  Basically like a 70% Josh Allen.

 

The Niners defense can make anyone struggle. They did the best they could to keep SF in the game. After Purdy got hurt, they had no QB and nothing from the passing game. The Niners defense eventually wore down.

[Jrb1979]

1 hour ago, jletha said:

The Bills are not clearly inferior to the Bengals and Chiefs. They played their worst game in 2 years at the worst time. Their lines are clearly inferior, specifically O-line. The D-line, while not great, was missing its two most important pieces in Jones & Miller. So I am willing to chalk it up to that and know that it should be better next year assuming they arent injured again. Evidence that we are not clearly inferior to the Chiefs is that we beat them at full strength this year. OF course its no guarantee we would beat them in January but to say we are *clearly* inferior is wrong. Same with the Bengals.

That defense from the start of this season is not returning. Poyer is all but gone plus likely losing a few others. IMO it won't matter what they do as they have hit their ceiling. I say that cause there defensive scheme doesn't work against elite teams. Case in point, look at how KC's defense played the Bengals compared to how the Bills played them. KC jammed the Bengals recievers and didn't play off the ball which game Burrow no time to throw. 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

That defense from the start of this season is not returning. Poyer is all but gone plus likely losing a few others. IMO it won't matter what they do as they have hit their ceiling. I say that cause there defensive scheme doesn't work against elite teams. Case in point, look at how KC's defense played the Bengals compared to how the Bills played them. KC jammed the Bengals recievers and didn't play off the ball which game Burrow no time to throw. 

 

Works fine in the regular season.  It's not the scheme, it's the passiveness they call it with in the playoffs due to being too scared to give up big plays

[boyst]

14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So McD & Allen now are toast and Cincy has a 2 year window with Burrow & Taylor. 

 

More importantly has McD done anything to help Allen as a QB?

He has helped him achieve moral victories

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

He has helped him achieve moral victories

Don't forget he also installed/instilled "the process" 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Elway was 38 & 39 when he finally won a SB. Josh is 26. 😆 🤣 😂 

8 minutes ago, boyst said:

He has helped him achieve moral victories

And laugh in the face of death!

[Jrb1979]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Works fine in the regular season.  It's not the scheme, it's the passiveness they call it with in the playoffs due to being too scared to give up big plays

Either way til that changes the results will be the same.  What I don't get is why they rarely take what other teams do that works against the teams they are playing and don't use some of them. They clearly saw what the Ravens did against the Bengals and did none of that. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

17 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The Niners defense can make anyone struggle. They did the best they could to keep SF in the game. After Purdy got hurt, they had no QB and nothing from the passing game. The Niners defense eventually wore down.

They gave up 31 points.  The D did the best they could! 😆 🤣  Bills gave up 27 and they were totally physically and psychologically gassed.

 

But the Bills didn't wear down over the last 2 months?

 

Hey... This is an overreaction thread! 😉 

[TheFunPolice]

After watching this weekends' games, I'm inclined to think we just got beat. 

 

Also, I wouldn't mind having McDermott call the plays on D, since it's his D anyway. In the past he has done it for short spurts, and it has almost always been effective. 

 

We have a very good defensive coach, so let's get the full benefit. 

 

 

 

 

[Gregg]

6 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

They gave up 31 points.  The D did the best they could! 😆 🤣  Bills gave up 27 and they were totally physically and psychologically gassed.

 

But the Bills didn't wear down over the last 2 months?

 

Hey... This is an overreaction thread! 😉 

 

SF had no QB and got nothing from the passing game. Even a defense as good as SF was eventually going to wear down. The penalties didn't help either.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, TheFunPolice said:

After watching this weekends' games, I'm inclined to think we just got beat. 

 

Also, I wouldn't mind having McDermott call the plays on D, since it's his D anyway. In the past he has done it for short spurts, and it has almost always been effective. 

 

We have a very good defensive coach, so let's get the full benefit. 

 

 

 

 

He needs to elevate the level of his players on D and not demand the best picks and bulk of free agency support his side of the ball. That's the only compensation for going against the trend that is successful in the current NFL, offensive coaches as HC.

[TheFunPolice]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

 

SF had no QB and got nothing from the passing game. Even a defense as good as SF was eventually going to wear down. The penalties didn't help either.

 

SF didn't really attempt to pass after the first drive when Purdy went down. 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

SF didn't really attempt to pass after the first drive when Purdy went down. 

 

I could understand with Purdy because of the injury but when Johnson was in there they should have thrown more.

[Rocbillsfan1]

The biggest overreaction was how bad the DL was for the Bills. Jones on the Chiefs had the fastest sack for the Chiefs last night at about 4 seconds. When Burrow played us he was getting most of his completions out at about 2.5 seconds. You aren't going to get sacks or presssures when the QB is getting the ball out that fast. And how was he getting the ball out so fast? It was bad coaching decisions on the Bills to play zone coverage and routinely be 5 - 10 yards off their receivers. I get that Mcdermott and Frazier's system works for most of the season against inferior talent and coordinators but they basically did the exact opposite of what they were supposed to do in that game. 

 

Our coaching sucks and I think that is generally still an under reaction on this board. Mcdermott needs to go. He is going to come up small just like he has in all 4 of his playoff loses with Josh Allen as his QB. Just inexcusable that you give up 19 second half points to Houston. Give up around 40+ both times to the Chiefs and allow Burrow with no offensive line to come into Buffalo in the winter and carve you up. I'm so sick of his inexcusable failure at this point. 

 

 

[Deadstroke]

2 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals, Chiefs, and Bills can all beat each other on any given Sunday. 

Chiefs beat the Bengals, Bengals beat the Bills, and Bills beat the Chiefs.  Go figger!🤔

[Orlando Tim]

The OL is our Achilles heel right now, the DL was missing Von and DaQuan which is probably our two most important players vs someone like the Bengals. I want to improve the DL but our biggest issue is clearly the OL.

[Awwufelloff]

The Houston Texans almost beat the team going to the superbowl in the AFC. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

55 minutes ago, boyst said:

The first super bowl is win within 5 yrs. 

 

It was a stat discussed in NFLN. I'm too lazy to look it up... Wait. I'm at work... Meh here goes. 

 

As of 2017

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/amp/

 

To my knowledge still true

 

Ok thought you meant they never won after 5 years ever again.  That also is partly true as after 5 years if you haven't won you're often fired.  Add to that in most cases the team never had a QB capable of winning SB to start with.  Reid was probably one of the exceptions in Philly as had McNabb in his prime, lasted 14 years, not all with McNabb, but never won the SB.

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Elway was 38 & 39 when he finally won a SB. Josh is 26. 😆 🤣 😂 

And laugh in the face of death!

Not about Allen.....  McD is the one on the hot seat.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[Billz4ever]

2 hours ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Now that the Championship games are over, I'd like to hear opinions on:

1. Are the Bills inside or outside the top tier of the AFC?  (Did the Bills have a bad game against the Bengals or are the Bills clearly inferior to the Bengals & Chiefs?)
2. What's the take on the Eagles?  (Have they been tested yet?  Played the 5th string QB for SF!! (Purdy w/no arm!)  Now they will play the Chiefs - who are so banged up they are thanking God there is 2 weeks until the SB.)

 

My Take:

1. The Bills are in the conversation!  They played their worst game since the Indy game early in 2021.  They were 14-4 this year (not 4-14).  Unfortunately that last game will stay in our mouths until September.
2. The Eagles have had it easy this year and I honestly don't know if they're as good as the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills.  However, much like their season, they will be facing a diminished opponent in their next game (wounded Chiefs).  Maybe a healthier Bengals team would have been a more formidable opponent for them.  Can Mahomes work his magic one more week?

 

It was clear to me that we weren't beating either of these teams in the playoffs this year.  

 

We got no pressure on Burrow and we wouldn't have on Mahomes either.  We couldn't stop Mixon and we probably don't stop Pacheco either.

 

Cincy got pressure on Josh with a 3-man rush.  That wouldn't have changed against KC and Chris Jones would be all over Allen.

 

We were playing loose coverage against Cincy's receivers.  Kelce and crew would've eaten us up too.

 

It all boils down to the line of scrimmage and both of these teams dominate us there.  We address the O-line, get Josh a true WR2, get a healthy Daquan and Von back, and we can re-visit.  

 

 

[Big Blitz]

How does this season end if Von and Hyde stay healthy?

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

 

It was clear to me that we weren't beating either of these teams in the playoffs this year.  

 

We got no pressure on Burrow and we wouldn't have on Mahomes either.  We couldn't stop Mixon and we probably don't stop Pacheco either.

 

Cincy got pressure on Josh with a 3-man rush.  That wouldn't have changed against KC and Chris Jones would be all over Allen.

 

We were playing loose coverage against Cincy's receivers.  Kelce and crew would've eaten us up too.

 

It all boils down to the line of scrimmage and both of these teams dominate us there.  We address the O-line, get Josh a true WR2, get a healthy Daquan and Von back, and we can re-visit.  

 

 

Stop it!!!! The Bills definitely could beat both teams.  The coaching was putrid and let them down.

 

Sick of this attitude. 

[boyst]

13 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Ok thought you meant they never won after 5 years ever again.  That also is partly true as after 5 years if you haven't won you're often fired.  Add to that in most cases the team never had a QB capable of winning SB to start with.  Reid was probably one of the exceptions in Philly as had McNabb in his prime, lasted 14 years, not all with McNabb, but never won the SB.

Marv with Kelly. Shula with Marino, a few coaches with Elway, Manning, Bledsoe, and more. 

[NewEra]

The bills are in the top tier of AFC teams-

 

This Philly team is LOADED.  Roseman saw he had a good qb on his rookie deal and  went for it.  Looks like he’s going to get it imo. 

 

 

[RunninRebel37]

After watching this weekends games I feel a little BETTER about the Bills for next season, pending their identification of what this team needs - which is a dominant o-line and another top tier WR. As many problems as the d-line’s had, imagine how much more effective they’d be in they weren’t in the field as often? Why can’t the Bills become a more run centric team to take burden off JA, burden off the defense, and establish another way of winning? 
 

If this scheme shifted more towards a McVay-ian balanced attack, I really think we’ll be right back in it to win a SB…thoughts? 

[Billz4ever]

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Stop it!!!! The Bills definitely could beat both teams.  The coaching was putrid and let them down.

 

Sick of this attitude. 

So you're saying the Bills getting dominated by Cincy on both sides of the LOS is simply coaching?  LMAO

 

Our O-Line just plain sucks and the D-line without Daq and Von couldn't do anything.

 

Our DBs playing extremely loose coverage well off the ball certainly didn't help, but when you're getting destroyed in the trenches, the probability is extremely high that you're not winning.

 

I'm no fan of Frazier and think it's time for a change, but to make the claim that we can beat both of them if it weren't for our coaching, is a pretty far-fetched statement.

 

So what coaches are we using then to beat them?

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billz4ever

[Billz4ever]

12 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

How does this season end if Von and Hyde stay healthy?

With this O-line that couldn't stop a 3-man rush?  The same. We scored 10 points.

10 minutes ago, RunninRebel37 said:

After watching this weekends games I feel a little BETTER about the Bills for next season, pending their identification of what this team needs - which is a dominant o-line and another top tier WR. As many problems as the d-line’s had, imagine how much more effective they’d be in they weren’t in the field as often? Why can’t the Bills become a more run centric team to take burden off JA, burden off the defense, and establish another way of winning? 
 

If this scheme shifted more towards a McVay-ian balanced attack, I really think we’ll be right back in it to win a SB…thoughts? 

The draft is going to tell us everything about where this FO and coaching staff's heads are at.  If they don't address the O-line and get Josh some help at WR2, it shows me they just don't get it.  

[zow2]

When the pre-season hype starts in April (draft), the Bills may be lumped in there with the Ravens, Chargers, Jags, and maybe Mia/Jets depending on their QB situations.  Those teams are probably going to be thought of as playoff worthy,, but on Tier 2 to start the season.   I think the Chiefs and Bengals are on Tier 1 by themselves.

I lost some trust in "the process" after this Cincinnati spanking.  McBeane got knocked down a bit.  I'm sure most NFL observers have lost some trust in the Bills as true SB contenders.  So this will be an interesting off season to see how they respond. 

[Billz4ever]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Hurts looked massively overrated yesterday...basically looked like a very VERY poor man's Josh Allen when healthy without the ability to stiff arm DLinemen to the ground or run over LBs.  Basically like a 70% Josh Allen.

That's the thing though...Hurts doesn't have to play like an elite QB in their offense.  He simply has to be efficient, not turn the ball over, and he'll always be a threat to run.  They ran for 150 yards and 4 TDs against a very good Niners D.  They didn't allow Hurts to have a great game through the air, but Philly didn't need him to.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Billz4ever

[harmonkillebrew]

I think at full health we have the talent to make up for our mediocre game day coaching and can beat either KC or Cinci.

I also still think that the slippery weather affected us more than Cinci. It limited our quickness advantage on the Line and at WR/RB.

Add in injuries and bad weather and our thin margin of error due to bad coaching is insurmountable.

 

If we strengthen the Oline and run game and can stay healthy on D, then we have a chance again next year.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, harmonkillebrew said:

I think at full health we have the talent to make up for our mediocre game day coaching and can beat either KC or Cinci.

I also still think that the slippery weather affected us more than Cinci. It limited our quickness advantage on the Line and at WR/RB.

Add in injuries and bad weather and our thin margin of error due to bad coaching is insurmountable.

 

If we strengthen the Oline and run game and can stay healthy on D, then we have a chance again next year.

 

You would think Beane and McDermott would build a team that could handle the elements better. The current stadium and the new one doesn't/won't have a dome. Rain, wind, snow, cold will be a factor every year.

[Billsfan1972]

17 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

So you're saying the Bills getting dominated by Cincy on both sides of the LOS is simply coaching?  LMAO

 

Our O-Line just plain sucks and the D-line without Daq and Von couldn't do anything.

 

Our DBs playing extremely loose coverage well off the ball certainly didn't help, but when you're getting destroyed in the trenches, the probability is extremely high that you're not winning.

 

I'm no fan of Frazier and think it's time for a change, but to make the claim that we can beat both of them if it weren't for our coaching, is a pretty far-fetched statement.

 

So what coaches are we using then to beat them?

 

The Bills went 13-3.  They did not look as sharp down the stretch, but beat Baltimore, KC, Miami and others during the season.

 

I have no idea the # of posts during the season, telling me & others to "shut-up and just worry about the scoreboard when the Bills were winning" 

 

They too were still the betting favourites to win the SB.  

 

As bad as the Bills played vs. Cincy it was 14-7 and the Bills somehow held them to a FG and the Offense had the ball to end the first hafl and start the second half.  

 

Good coaching (and adjustments) and the Bills have it 17-17 or up 21-17 and a new ball game.

 

Yes I blame the coaching.  You're welcome to have your own excuses.  

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

The Bills are in the conversation!  They played their worst game since the Indy game early in 2021.  They were 14-4 this year (not 4-14).  Unfortunately that last game will stay in our mouths until September.

I agree we are in the conversation, but a lot of people are pointing to our regular season record this year as proof that we will be right there next year in the playoffs.

 

I think that's a bit of a fallacy.  Regular season ball against a 6 win team in October is not what playoff football is about.  

 

You really need to ONLY analyze what we have done against playoff competition.  Maybe someone around here will do that; I'm too lazy for that.

 

I will note we BEAT KC, IN KC, earlier in the year.  Not playoff football, but the result still stands! 

 

I think we would have lost, maybe by a lot, to the Bengals on MNF this year had the game continued, and they beat us easily and badly in the our playoff game; they are NOT a good matchup for us and we will have big trouble with them next year too, if it comes to that.

 

We need a small rebuild this off-season, and have a lot to address.  We will still be in the conversation, but don't expect anyone to name us their pre-season Super Bowl favorite.  No way.

 

I think we are do for a slight regression next season, which will only turn the heat on coaching/coordinators more.

 

 

[dakrider]

The biggest overreaction I saw was the board moderators deleting posts and giving warnings to anything that was not 100% in game only in the AFC Champ. game topic.  That is just too much for me.  So good lucks Bills!  Signing off now. 

[DrDawkinstein]

43 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

How does this season end if Von and Hyde stay healthy?

 

Dead serious, Super Bowl.

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Dead serious, Super Bowl.

 

I'd like to believe this, but that 10-point offensive performance vs. CIN gives me doubt.

[Boatdrinks]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Stop it!!!! The Bills definitely could beat both teams.  The coaching was putrid and let them down.

 

Sick of this attitude. 

Thank you. The KC rush hasn’t gotten to Josh the last 3 times. He’s a lot more elusive than Burrow and far more dangerous off script. The coaching in the playoffs was a C and an F.