A Few Thoughts about the AFC East Run, in no particular order

[Virgil]

Expectations might just be the worst part about being a sports fan.  With a team that literally stopped punting, expectations couldn't be higher.  Every win was by double digit points and we've been favored to win every single game.  It's honestly crazy if you think about it.  I've argued for years that one of my most enjoyable seasons was when the Bills went 3-13.  There was no doubt the Bills were rebuilding, we expected to lose every game, and the 3 wins felt like playoff wins.  You relish in those wins longer than you do when you are expected to win, and somehow, even after the drought, we can get too comfortable too fast.  I say this as part of my excuse for not writing these as much recently, but that's not entirely it.  I'm also trying to adjust the way I enjoy Bills games.  At first, I thought taking notes throughout the games was diminishing the fun for me, but then I realized I was watching each game way to skeptically.  I wasn't sitting back and enjoying the ride.  I was instead looking for moments that would be interesting to write about, thus making basic plays seem pointless.  I don't know what the future holds for me and these reviews, but it's been a nice little break.

 

1 - The Allen/Miami Effect - Similar to the no punting streak, there's Josh has had Miami's number for the majority of his career.  There was a stat today that's won AFC Player of the Week 10 times, 4 of which were against the Dolphins.  And against the Dolphins last Saturday, he was equally brilliant.  I thought he did a much better job or taking what was given to him, using check downs, but also looking deep when he could.  We may never know how much the elbow injury affected him, but since the Pats game, he's looked much more confident and comfortable throwing the ball.  What I did learn was that the Jets defense is for real, the Dolphins are a very well coached team, and the Pats have become Josh's 7 iron.  That one club in the bag that straightens out your swing.  If I told you on Josh's draft Day that the Pats would become Josh's "easy" games, I think we'd all sign up for that.

 

2 - Hero Ball - I do not consider any of the AFC East QB's to be elite.  I'm sorry, but I'm just not sold on Tua.  With that being said, it's noticeable how much better scripted plays and open routes these other teams are able to generate on the field.  On almost half the offensive plays, it seems like the opposing QB's are able to find their receiver within their first two reads, while Josh is out there making things up on the fly.  Granted, the red zone play calling has gotten much better and we've been playing with a busted offensive line, but Josh seems to be working a lot harder than he should have to.  Is that the skill set of our receivers or the play calling by Dorsey?  I'm more inclined to lean towards Dorsey, as we've seen all of these receivers show enough spark to make a difference.

 

3 - Rushing Attack - The final drive against the Dolphins was impressive not only because of the weather and time used, but because of how efficiently we ran the ball.  I call out that drive because it feels like the only one over three games were we had a respectable rushing attack.  For a team that passes so much that teams play cover two or drop 7 in coverage, how are we not better at running the ball?  I can't believe it's just on our running backs anymore because it feels statistically impossible for them to all suck.  But with 5 lineman, sometimes 7, versus 4 defensive lineman and 2 linebackers, shouldn't the basic numbers mismatch work in our favor?  It sure seems to for other teams against us.  

 

4 - There's some reason why I can't sit still
Every waking moment I feel so unfulfilled
I try to lie down, but I don't know how
Baby, when I'm sleeping, it feels less like I am dreaming

 

5 - Receivers - As referenced before, the struggles of anyone besides Diggs to have a dominant game is another mystery to me, but does seem to be trending in the right direction.  Knox finally played a game that is worthy of his new contract and hopefully affects future game planning against us.  More importantly, Gabe did a great job of finding space on 3rd downs, as well as some nice sideline catches.  Beyond that, I have no idea what's going on.  We will never truly know what happens in practice or what drops someone down the priority chart, but somehow McD believes that Smoke and Beasely are better than McK and Shakir?   I'm not saying that's wrong, but it really makes you wonder what's going on here.  While McK has his share of drops, we also barely use him for jet sweeps or other open field plays to take advantage of his speed.  Shakir, is out on the field quite a bit, but seems to only get 1-2 targets a game.  When you watch the Chiefs, everyone seems to get the ball, but we seem to live or die by Diggs or whoever else gets open while Josh is scrambling to keep plays alive.  Again, maybe Knox will start to open things up, but it's almost impressive how this offense still scores when only Diggs and Allen seem to be a threat.

 

6 - Hamlin - How many games starting for a player until you stop using the "back up" excuse.  I'm calling it now, and I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like Hamlin is going to be the reason we don't win a Super Bowl this year.  Don't worry, our defensive line is a strong second reason.  In every game, there seems to be at least one play where Hamlin takes the wrong angle, doesn't drop back into coverage, or simply is a step behind.  The touchdown to Hill was beyond frustrating because Hamlin was responsible over the top and didn't support Tre.  The only touchdown by the Pats was a bad angle by Hamlin.  I get that we run a defense that's meant to confuse the opposing QB, but Hamlin is beyond the point of making these types of mistakes to me.  With Hyde and Poyer's age and contracts, I wonder if Safety doesn't become a big offseason priority.  

 

7 - Defensive Line - I get it, Von is hurt, but this is also the same defensive line that we've poured numerous draft capitol into.  Groot has been solid overall, and Lawson has shown some nice flashes.  However, the way we are getting gashed in these outside zone runs, and the hit or miss pressure we get, is beyond frustrating.  Frazier's been dialing up more blitzes as of late to compensate, but it's hard to not view the overall unit as a letdown.  Jones has been solid in his play, and there's been numerous injuries at the tackle, but the lack of push up the middle is noticeable.  The lack of closing speed on the edges also is a concern.  It's going to be interesting watch them contain Fields this week and I worry about Mahomes just picking us apart when he has all day to throw.  

 

8 - Linebackers - To his credit, Edmunds has been really picking up his play this season and I am less on the train of letting him walk this offseason.  However, with that being said, I still don't understand how we got gashed against the Dolphins rushing attack.  We got very lucky that the Dolphins got away from the run, or else that game could have ended very differently.  What's worse is, the runs weren't creative.  All of them appeared to be zone runs off inside the tackle, where the back didn't make contact with anyone until 8 yards downfield.  If there was contact, we missed the tackle or got a piggy back ride for 5 additional yards.  Fortunately, the power run teams don't seem to be making the playoffs this year, outside of the Titans.  But still, the tackling and run defense is a big concern.

 

9 - Special Teams - While we took a lot of pride in not having to punt or kick a lot of field goals, it's nice to know that unit can be relied on when needed.  Bass has been fantastic on this run and I have complete faith in him regardless or distance and situation.  For the nightmare that was the the punt god, things worked out well with Martin as both a punter and holder.  And while we don't use him enough overall, I have to say I get a little amped when we return punts with Hines' speed back there.  This is a unit that I feel could actually help us win some big games coming up.

 

10 - McD - The man we are too spoiled to appreciate.  We are playing one of the toughest schedules in the league, dealing with multiple injuries, have a huge target on our backs, and still are in first place in the AFC.  Take the safety out of the equation against Minnesota (not a coaches fault), and we have a full extra game lead on the 1 seed.  Everyone, including myself, wants to armchair quarterback and second guess all decisions, but the Bills have won big games, close games, and games against all other division leaders.  We locked up a playoff spot with 3 games left to play.  Say whatever you want, but results matter and McD has done nothing but get results for this team.  

 

Side note - If Cam Lewis makes one more dumb play, I want to see him cut mid-game.

 

Side note 2 - Anyone have a Groupon for a tackling session?  If so, please send to Frazier 

 

Go Bills!

Edited December 21, 2022 by Virgil

[Stroke 17]

Virgil, quick, come see...here comes Robert E Lee!

 

Welcome Home!  I missed you and your thoughtful insights. GO Bills!

[BearNorth]

In the Dolphins game, our TD's were to Knox, Morris, Hines, and Cook, so that would suggest Josh and Dorsey know they need to diversify the offense.

 

Regarding your point on defending the run, I saw Milano whiff on a couple of tackles, and our CB's are slow to come up in run support [that could be scheme as they are told to stick to Cheetah and Waddle as job #1].  I also notice that instead of trying to stop a runner in his tracks, we tend to try to ride them towards the sideline.

 

As always enjoy your analysis and the poetry is uplifting.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I agree about the safety position. Might be our ultimate downfall. If I could have Hyde or Miller back I’d take Hyde every time. 
 

Will be very interesting if he actually is able to play in the postseason as he has said he has left the door open to that possibility I guess. 

[Fleezoid]

Intro: Agree! The expectations of winning has made watching the games more stressful. Every time I see a TD pass that immediately isn’t a clear catch, I get a knot in my gut and my first impression is, ‘it touched the ground’, or ‘his foot was out’. Despite the expectations, I still get super hyped with big wins. Miami was one of them.

 

2. My thinking, it’s Dorsey. Last year it seemed our receivers were catching most of their passes in open space. For some reason, this year, most of the catches are tightly contested. To me that’s play design/scheme.

 

5. The Brown and Beasley thing has a ring of desperation to it. Hopefully they both have an impact at some point at the end of the season or playoffs. That’ll make it look more like smart acquisitions rather than grasping at straws.

 

10. Completely agree.

 

Last thing for me: Tackling!! For crying out loud, get the guy to the ground!

[Virgil]

6 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

In the Dolphins game, our TD's were to Knox, Morris, Hines, and Cook, so that would suggest Josh and Dorsey know they need to diversify the offense.

 

Regarding your point on defending the run, I saw Milano whiff on a couple of tackles, and our CB's are slow to come up in run support [that could be scheme as they are told to stick to Cheetah and Waddle as job #1].  I also notice that instead of trying to stop a runner in his tracks, we tend to try to ride them towards the sideline.

 

As always enjoy your analysis and the poetry is uplifting.

 

 

Agreed and thought I articulated that improvement when I referenced our redzone success against the Dolphins. 
 

My apologies if unclear 

[BillsFan619]

43 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Expectations might just be the worst part about being a sports fan.  With a team that literally stopped punting, expectations couldn't be higher.  Every win was by double digit points and we've been favored to win every single game.  It's honestly crazy if you think about it.  I've argued for years that one of my most enjoyable seasons was when the Bills went 3-13.  There was no doubt the Bills were rebuilding, we expected to lose every game, and the 3 wins felt like playoff wins.  You relish in those wins longer than you do when you are expected to win, and somehow, even after the drought, we can get too comfortable too fast.  I say this as part of my excuse for not writing these as much recently, but that's not entirely it.  I'm also trying to adjust the way I enjoy Bills games.  At first, I thought taking notes throughout the games was diminishing the fun for me, but then I realized I was watching each game way to skeptically.  I wasn't sitting back and enjoying the ride.  I was instead looking for moments that would be interesting to write about, thus making basic plays seem pointless.  I don't know what the future holds for me and these reviews, but it's been a nice little break.

 

1 - The Allen/Miami Effect - Similar to the no punting streak, there's Josh has had Miami's number for the majority of his career.  There was a stat today that's won AFC Player of the Week 10 times, 4 of which were against the Dolphins.  And against the Dolphins last Saturday, he was equally brilliant.  I thought he did a much better job or taking what was given to him, using check downs, but also looking deep when he could.  We may never know how much the elbow injury affected him, but since the Pats game, he's looked much more confident and comfortable throwing the ball.  What I did learn was that the Jets defense is for real, the Dolphins are a very well coached team, and the Pats have become Josh's 7 iron.  That one club in the bag that straightens out your swing.  If I told you on Josh's draft Day that the Pats would become Josh's "easy" games, I think we'd all sign up for that.

 

2 - Hero Ball - I do not consider any of the AFC East QB's to be elite.  I'm sorry, but I'm just not sold on Tua.  With that being said, it's noticeable how much better scripted plays and open routes these other teams are able to generate on the field.  On almost half the offensive plays, it seems like the opposing QB's are able to find their receiver within their first two reads, while Josh is out there making things up on the fly.  Granted, the red zone play calling has gotten much better and we've been playing with a busted offensive line, but Josh seems to be working a lot harder than he should have to.  Is that the skill set of our receivers or the play calling by Dorsey?  I'm more inclined to lean towards Dorsey, as we've seen all of these receivers show enough spark to make a difference.

 

3 - Rushing Attack - The final drive against the Dolphins was impressive not only because of the weather and time used, but because of how efficiently we ran the ball.  I call out that drive because it feels like the only one over three games were we had a respectable rushing attack.  For a team that passes so much that teams play cover two or drop 7 in coverage, how are we not better at running the ball?  I can't believe it's just on our running backs anymore because it feels statistically impossible for them to all suck.  But with 5 lineman, sometimes 7, versus 4 defensive lineman and 2 linebackers, shouldn't the basic numbers mismatch work in our favor?  It sure seems to for other teams against us.  

 

4 - There's some reason why I can't sit still
Every waking moment I feel so unfulfilled
I try to lie down, but I don't know how
Baby, when I'm sleeping, it feels less like I am dreaming

 

5 - Receivers - As referenced before, the struggles of anyone besides Diggs to have a dominant game is another mystery to me, but does seem to be trending in the right direction.  Knox finally played a game that is worthy of his new contract and hopefully affects future game planning against us.  More importantly, Gabe did a great job of finding space on 3rd downs, as well as some nice sideline catches.  Beyond that, I have no idea what's going on.  We will never truly know what happens in practice or what drops someone down the priority chart, but somehow McD believes that Smoke and Beasely are better than McK and Shakir?   I'm not saying that's wrong, but it really makes you wonder what's going on here.  While McK has his share of drops, we also barely use him for jet sweeps or other open field plays to take advantage of his speed.  Shakir, is out on the field quite a bit, but seems to only get 1-2 targets a game.  When you watch the Chiefs, everyone seems to get the ball, but we seem to live or die by Diggs or whoever else gets open while Josh is scrambling to keep plays alive.  Again, maybe Knox will start to open things up, but it's almost impressive how this offense still scores when only Diggs and Allen seem to be a threat.

 

6 - Hamlin - How many games starting for a player until you stop using the "back up" excuse.  I'm calling it now, and I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like Hamlin is going to be the reason we don't win a Super Bowl this year.  Don't worry, our defensive line is a strong second reason.  In every game, there seems to be at least one play where Hamlin takes the wrong angle, doesn't drop back into coverage, or simply is a step behind.  The touchdown to Hill was beyond frustrating because Hamlin was responsible over the top and didn't support Tre.  The only touchdown by the Pats was a bad angle by Hamlin.  I get that we run a defense that's meant to confuse the opposing QB, but Hamlin is beyond the point of making these types of mistakes to me.  With Hyde and Poyer's age and contracts, I wonder if Safety doesn't become a big offseason priority.  

 

7 - Defensive Line - I get it, Von is hurt, but this is also the same defensive line that we've poured numerous draft capitol into.  Groot has been solid overall, and Lawson has shown some nice flashes.  However, the way we are getting gashed in these outside zone runs, and the hit or miss pressure we get, is beyond frustrating.  Frazier's been dialing up more blitzes as of late to compensate, but it's hard to not view the overall unit as a letdown.  Jones has been solid in his play, and there's been numerous injuries at the tackle, but the lack of push up the middle is noticeable.  The lack of closing speed on the edges also is a concern.  It's going to be interesting watch them contain Fields this week and I worry about Mahomes just picking us apart when he has all day to throw.  

 

8 - Linebackers - To his credit, Edmunds has been really picking up his play this season and I am less on the train of letting him walk this offseason.  However, with that being said, I still don't understand how we got gashed against the Dolphins rushing attack.  We got very lucky that the Dolphins got away from the run, or else that game could have ended very differently.  What's worse is, the runs weren't creative.  All of them appeared to be zone runs off inside the tackle, where the back didn't make contact with anyone until 8 yards downfield.  If there was contact, we missed the tackle or got a piggy back ride for 5 additional yards.  Fortunately, the power run teams don't seem to be making the playoffs this year, outside of the Titans.  But still, the tackling and run defense is a big concern.

 

9 - Special Teams - While we took a lot of pride in not having to punt or kick a lot of field goals, it's nice to know that unit can be relied on when needed.  Bass has been fantastic on this run and I have complete faith in him regardless or distance and situation.  For the nightmare that was the the punt god, things worked out well with Martin as both a punter and holder.  And while we don't use him enough overall, I have to say I get a little amped when we return punts with Hines' speed back there.  This is a unit that I feel could actually help us win some big games coming up.

 

10 - McD - The man we are too spoiled to appreciate.  We are playing one of the toughest schedules in the league, dealing with multiple injuries, have a huge target on our backs, and still are in first place in the AFC.  Take the safety out of the equation against Minnesota (not a coaches fault), and we have a full extra game lead on the 1 seed.  Everyone, including myself, wants to armchair quarterback and second guess all decisions, but the Bills have won big games, close games, and games against all other division leaders.  We locked up a playoff spot with 3 games left to play.  Say whatever you want, but results matter and McD has done nothing but get results for this team.  

 

Side note - If Cam Lewis makes one more dumb play, I want to see him cut mid-game.

 

Go Bills!

Welcome back, Virgil. Good to hear from you!
 

One clarifier. When you say you don’t consider any of the AFC East QBs elite are you including JA on that list or were you just talking about the other AFC East QBs?

 

Go Bills!

Edited December 21, 2022 by BillsFan619

[GoBills808]

Higher expectations can definitely be a mixed blessing

 

I am trying to look at it from the 'pressure is a privilege' angle and it makes everything a lot more fun tbh

[DaggersEOD]

2. With that being said, it's noticeable how much better scripted plays and open routes these other teams are able to generate on the field.  On almost half the offensive plays, it seems like the opposing QB's are able to find their receiver within their first two reads, while Josh is out there making things up on the fly.  
 

I think this is a result of the Bills being the #1 team in the AFC. We’re consistently getting their best shots, while we’re trying to save our best stuff for the playoffs. 
 

They empty their shelves, going against tendencies, setting up plays w/formations and motion, all trying to get an edge against one of the best teams in the NFL. 

 

We, on the other hand are trying to establish tendencies to be exploited in the post-season. We’re saving our easy plays for 3rd and 6 in the AFCCG or beyond. 
 

Im HOPING that we’re “saving our powder” and that we’ll see the unleashed Bills O in Jan. 

[st pete gogolak]

44 minutes ago, Stroke 17 said:

Virgil, quick, come see...here comes Robert E Lee!

 

Welcome Home!  I missed you and your thoughtful insights. GO Bills!

Not to nitpick but it's "here comes THE Robert E. Lee", the steamboat, not the general.  In any event, great song from a great band.  

[Virgil]

13 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

Welcome back, Virgil. Good to hear from you!
 

One clarifier. When you say you don’t consider any of the AFC East QBs elite are you including JA on that list or were you just talking about the other AFC East QBs?

 

Go Bills!

Josh Allen is trash 

[PaattMaann]

Regarding the Dolphins running all over us...pretty easy explanation, extremely poor tackling and the LBs were a full 2 yards dropped off the LOS from their normal setup. This was done intentionally to flood the middle of the field and get into passing lanes, which means sacrificing against the run. Couple the alignment with the very poor tackling as usual and its easy to see why they ran all over us. Fine, would rather have that than wide open lanes for Hill/Waddle. 

[Sestak4ever]

I agree with you regarding Tua. Him getting voted to the Pro Bowl is equivalent to Mac Jones getting voted to the top 100 list last year. 

[ExWNYer]

@Virgil

 

 

"Expectations might just be the worst part about being a sports fan.  With a team that literally stopped punting, expectations couldn't be higher.  Every win was by double digit points and we've been favored to win every single game.  It's honestly crazy if you think about it.  I've argued for years that one of my most enjoyable seasons was when the Bills went 3-13.  There was no doubt the Bills were rebuilding, we expected to lose every game, and the 3 wins felt like playoff wins.  You relish in those wins longer than you do when you are expected to win, and somehow, even after the drought, we can get too comfortable too fast.  I say this as part of my excuse for not writing these as much recently, but that's not entirely it.  I'm also trying to adjust the way I enjoy Bills games.  At first, I thought taking notes throughout the games was diminishing the fun for me, but then I realized I was watching each game way to skeptically.  I wasn't sitting back and enjoying the ride.  I was instead looking for moments that would be interesting to write about, thus making basic plays seem pointless.  I don't know what the future holds for me and these reviews, but it's been a nice little break."

 

I completely understand where you're coming from here, Virg. When the Bills are really good, I find myself falling into a 'law of diminishing returns' mentality. While I love watching them and watching them win, I tend to get more angst from a loss than joy from a win. This was especially true during the Super Bowl years a couple of years in to it. The regular season became a necessary evil/exercise and I just wanted to get to the playoffs with everyone healthy and finally grab that elusive brass ring. I try to fight that urge now as I get older and try to soak in and appreciate just how special Josh Allen has become both on and off the field. If (when, hopefully), they finally get over the hump, I think it will be easier for me to just enjoy each game individually for the entity that it is. So many people that I love have passed and cannot witness what we have now, including my mom and, more recently, my dad in 2019. He only got to witness the tip of the JA17 iceberg. I hope I can witness the ultimate victory for all of them and share in it with my kids. I'm enjoying the ride and will take perennial winners over lovable losers every day of the week but I will agree that the lofty expectations of this team make the ride more stressful than anticipated. Some of the absurd comments on this board after a victory are proof of that.

 

Have you ever considered recording the games and watching/enjoying live and then going back and watching again for your analysis/critiques/write-ups? It might be a less stressful and more enjoyable approach. Just a thought. Glad to see you 'back on the horse'.

 

Go Bills!!!

[CSBill]

Virgil is a huge proponent of Chaos Theory. 

[Virgil]

10 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

@Virgil

 

 

"Expectations might just be the worst part about being a sports fan.  With a team that literally stopped punting, expectations couldn't be higher.  Every win was by double digit points and we've been favored to win every single game.  It's honestly crazy if you think about it.  I've argued for years that one of my most enjoyable seasons was when the Bills went 3-13.  There was no doubt the Bills were rebuilding, we expected to lose every game, and the 3 wins felt like playoff wins.  You relish in those wins longer than you do when you are expected to win, and somehow, even after the drought, we can get too comfortable too fast.  I say this as part of my excuse for not writing these as much recently, but that's not entirely it.  I'm also trying to adjust the way I enjoy Bills games.  At first, I thought taking notes throughout the games was diminishing the fun for me, but then I realized I was watching each game way to skeptically.  I wasn't sitting back and enjoying the ride.  I was instead looking for moments that would be interesting to write about, thus making basic plays seem pointless.  I don't know what the future holds for me and these reviews, but it's been a nice little break."

 

I completely understand where you're coming from here, Virg. When the Bills are really good, I find myself falling into a 'law of diminishing returns' mentality. While I love watching them and watching them win, I tend to get more angst from a loss than joy from a win. This was especially true during the Super Bowl years a couple of years in to it. The regular season became a necessary evil/exercise and I just wanted to get to the playoffs with everyone healthy and finally grab that elusive brass ring. I try to fight that urge now as I get older and try to soak in and appreciate just how special Josh Allen has become both on and off the field. If (when, hopefully), they finally get over the hump, I think it will be easier for me to just enjoy each game individually for the entity that it is. So many people that I love have passed and cannot witness what we have now, including my mom and, more recently, my dad in 2019. He only got to witness the tip of the JA17 iceberg. I hope I can witness the ultimate victory for all of them and share in it with my kids. I'm enjoying the ride and will take perennial winners over lovable losers every day of the week but I will agree that the lofty expectations of this team make the ride more stressful than anticipated. Some of the absurd comments on this board after a victory are proof of that.

 

Have you ever considered recording the games and watching/enjoying live and then going back and watching again for your analysis/critiques/write-ups? It might be a less stressful and more enjoyable approach. Just a thought. Glad to see you 'back on the horse'.

 

Go Bills!!!

I have thought about watching game replays recently.  I stayed away from it before to keep things raw and fresh (title of Gugny’s sex tape), but now I’m more open to it.  
 

It’s hard because they all seem to come off as “We are amazing” or “oh no, we suck again”

[TheBrownBear]

Thanks for sharing.  Good post overall.  Just a couple of nitpicks:

 

On No. 3 (Bills rushing attack) - you mention that being our only effective drive in the past three weeks, but I'd say we ran the ball pretty damn effectively against New England two weeks ago.  The only problem in that game was Dorsey getting away from it for a couple of series to start the second half.

 

On Nos. 7/8 (Bills run D) - as others have said, it was mostly a tackling issue as opposed to the D-line getting blown off the ball.  We were in nickel almost the entire evening to take away the Phins short-to-intermediate passing game (and that generally worked - we got beat over the top more than anything).  Our LBs and safeties really needed to step up with some sure tackling at the second level in the run game and too frequently they just whiffed.

 

And I think the time off must have been well spent, since I thought this was one of your better "thoughts" posts.  

[B-Large]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

Expectations might just be the worst part about being a sports fan.  With a team that literally stopped punting, expectations couldn't be higher.  Every win was by double digit points and we've been favored to win every single game.  It's honestly crazy if you think about it.  I've argued for years that one of my most enjoyable seasons was when the Bills went 3-13.  There was no doubt the Bills were rebuilding, we expected to lose every game, and the 3 wins felt like playoff wins.  You relish in those wins longer than you do when you are expected to win, and somehow, even after the drought, we can get too comfortable too fast.  I say this as part of my excuse for not writing these as much recently, but that's not entirely it.  I'm also trying to adjust the way I enjoy Bills games.  At first, I thought taking notes throughout the games was diminishing the fun for me, but then I realized I was watching each game way to skeptically.  I wasn't sitting back and enjoying the ride.  I was instead looking for moments that would be interesting to write about, thus making basic plays seem pointless.  I don't know what the future holds for me and these reviews, but it's been a nice little break.

 

1 - The Allen/Miami Effect - Similar to the no punting streak, there's Josh has had Miami's number for the majority of his career.  There was a stat today that's won AFC Player of the Week 10 times, 4 of which were against the Dolphins.  And against the Dolphins last Saturday, he was equally brilliant.  I thought he did a much better job or taking what was given to him, using check downs, but also looking deep when he could.  We may never know how much the elbow injury affected him, but since the Pats game, he's looked much more confident and comfortable throwing the ball.  What I did learn was that the Jets defense is for real, the Dolphins are a very well coached team, and the Pats have become Josh's 7 iron.  That one club in the bag that straightens out your swing.  If I told you on Josh's draft Day that the Pats would become Josh's "easy" games, I think we'd all sign up for that.

 

2 - Hero Ball - I do not consider any of the AFC East QB's to be elite.  I'm sorry, but I'm just not sold on Tua.  With that being said, it's noticeable how much better scripted plays and open routes these other teams are able to generate on the field.  On almost half the offensive plays, it seems like the opposing QB's are able to find their receiver within their first two reads, while Josh is out there making things up on the fly.  Granted, the red zone play calling has gotten much better and we've been playing with a busted offensive line, but Josh seems to be working a lot harder than he should have to.  Is that the skill set of our receivers or the play calling by Dorsey?  I'm more inclined to lean towards Dorsey, as we've seen all of these receivers show enough spark to make a difference.

 

3 - Rushing Attack - The final drive against the Dolphins was impressive not only because of the weather and time used, but because of how efficiently we ran the ball.  I call out that drive because it feels like the only one over three games were we had a respectable rushing attack.  For a team that passes so much that teams play cover two or drop 7 in coverage, how are we not better at running the ball?  I can't believe it's just on our running backs anymore because it feels statistically impossible for them to all suck.  But with 5 lineman, sometimes 7, versus 4 defensive lineman and 2 linebackers, shouldn't the basic numbers mismatch work in our favor?  It sure seems to for other teams against us.  

 

4 - There's some reason why I can't sit still
Every waking moment I feel so unfulfilled
I try to lie down, but I don't know how
Baby, when I'm sleeping, it feels less like I am dreaming

 

5 - Receivers - As referenced before, the struggles of anyone besides Diggs to have a dominant game is another mystery to me, but does seem to be trending in the right direction.  Knox finally played a game that is worthy of his new contract and hopefully affects future game planning against us.  More importantly, Gabe did a great job of finding space on 3rd downs, as well as some nice sideline catches.  Beyond that, I have no idea what's going on.  We will never truly know what happens in practice or what drops someone down the priority chart, but somehow McD believes that Smoke and Beasely are better than McK and Shakir?   I'm not saying that's wrong, but it really makes you wonder what's going on here.  While McK has his share of drops, we also barely use him for jet sweeps or other open field plays to take advantage of his speed.  Shakir, is out on the field quite a bit, but seems to only get 1-2 targets a game.  When you watch the Chiefs, everyone seems to get the ball, but we seem to live or die by Diggs or whoever else gets open while Josh is scrambling to keep plays alive.  Again, maybe Knox will start to open things up, but it's almost impressive how this offense still scores when only Diggs and Allen seem to be a threat.

 

6 - Hamlin - How many games starting for a player until you stop using the "back up" excuse.  I'm calling it now, and I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like Hamlin is going to be the reason we don't win a Super Bowl this year.  Don't worry, our defensive line is a strong second reason.  In every game, there seems to be at least one play where Hamlin takes the wrong angle, doesn't drop back into coverage, or simply is a step behind.  The touchdown to Hill was beyond frustrating because Hamlin was responsible over the top and didn't support Tre.  The only touchdown by the Pats was a bad angle by Hamlin.  I get that we run a defense that's meant to confuse the opposing QB, but Hamlin is beyond the point of making these types of mistakes to me.  With Hyde and Poyer's age and contracts, I wonder if Safety doesn't become a big offseason priority.  

 

7 - Defensive Line - I get it, Von is hurt, but this is also the same defensive line that we've poured numerous draft capitol into.  Groot has been solid overall, and Lawson has shown some nice flashes.  However, the way we are getting gashed in these outside zone runs, and the hit or miss pressure we get, is beyond frustrating.  Frazier's been dialing up more blitzes as of late to compensate, but it's hard to not view the overall unit as a letdown.  Jones has been solid in his play, and there's been numerous injuries at the tackle, but the lack of push up the middle is noticeable.  The lack of closing speed on the edges also is a concern.  It's going to be interesting watch them contain Fields this week and I worry about Mahomes just picking us apart when he has all day to throw.  

 

8 - Linebackers - To his credit, Edmunds has been really picking up his play this season and I am less on the train of letting him walk this offseason.  However, with that being said, I still don't understand how we got gashed against the Dolphins rushing attack.  We got very lucky that the Dolphins got away from the run, or else that game could have ended very differently.  What's worse is, the runs weren't creative.  All of them appeared to be zone runs off inside the tackle, where the back didn't make contact with anyone until 8 yards downfield.  If there was contact, we missed the tackle or got a piggy back ride for 5 additional yards.  Fortunately, the power run teams don't seem to be making the playoffs this year, outside of the Titans.  But still, the tackling and run defense is a big concern.

 

9 - Special Teams - While we took a lot of pride in not having to punt or kick a lot of field goals, it's nice to know that unit can be relied on when needed.  Bass has been fantastic on this run and I have complete faith in him regardless or distance and situation.  For the nightmare that was the the punt god, things worked out well with Martin as both a punter and holder.  And while we don't use him enough overall, I have to say I get a little amped when we return punts with Hines' speed back there.  This is a unit that I feel could actually help us win some big games coming up.

 

10 - McD - The man we are too spoiled to appreciate.  We are playing one of the toughest schedules in the league, dealing with multiple injuries, have a huge target on our backs, and still are in first place in the AFC.  Take the safety out of the equation against Minnesota (not a coaches fault), and we have a full extra game lead on the 1 seed.  Everyone, including myself, wants to armchair quarterback and second guess all decisions, but the Bills have won big games, close games, and games against all other division leaders.  We locked up a playoff spot with 3 games left to play.  Say whatever you want, but results matter and McD has done nothing but get results for this team.  

 

Side note - If Cam Lewis makes one more dumb play, I want to see him cut mid-game.

 

Side note 2 - Anyone have a Groupon for a tackling session?  If so, please send to Frazier 

 

Go Bills!

 

LOL, what a line..... 

[Virgil]

7 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Thanks for sharing.  Good post overall.  Just a couple of nitpicks:

 

On No. 3 (Bills rushing attack) - you mention that being our only effective drive in the past three weeks, but I'd say we ran the ball pretty damn effectively against New England two weeks ago.  The only problem in that game was Dorsey getting away from it for a couple of series to start the second half.

 

On Nos. 7/8 (Bills run D) - as others have said, it was mostly a tackling issue as opposed to the D-line getting blown off the ball.  We were in nickel almost the entire evening to take away the Phins short-to-intermediate passing game (and that generally worked - we got beat over the top more than anything).  Our LBs and safeties really needed to step up with some sure tackling at the second level in the run game and too frequently they just whiffed.

 

And I think the time off must have been well spent, since I thought this was one of your better "thoughts" posts.  

I think you’re right about our rushing attack against the Pats.  I remember Motor and Cook having decent fantasy numbers.  
 

Good point

[Punching Bag]

Weakness of Bills defense seems to sticking in 4-2-5 defense too much even when the opposition is running frequently.

While like Taron Johnson and had been considering getting a jersey of him before him changing numbers I think that Bills need more mass against teams running against Bills still lighter defense lines.  Against Miami with 2 very fast WRs he was needed but if need be he should be playing #2 CB and Bills need to play with 5 DL or 4 DL and 3 LBs. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

In the Dolphins game, our TD's were to Knox, Morris, Hines, and Cook, so that would suggest Josh and Dorsey know they need to diversify the offense.

 

Regarding your point on defending the run, I saw Milano whiff on a couple of tackles, and our CB's are slow to come up in run support [that could be scheme as they are told to stick to Cheetah and Waddle as job #1].  I also notice that instead of trying to stop a runner in his tracks, we tend to try to ride them towards the sideline.

 

As always enjoy your analysis and the poetry is uplifting.

 

 

Milano had one really bad whiff near the beginning of the game, Dolphin was right in front of him and he somehow missed, allowed the dolphin another easy 15 or so yards.

[Virgil]

7 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Milano had one really bad whiff near the beginning of the game, Dolphin was right in front of him and he somehow missed, allowed the dolphin another easy 15 or so yards.

Yeah, as a big supporter of Milano, that one hurt to watch 

[Rubes]

Couldn’t agree more about Hamlin. Seemed like he started out strong but has really regressed the past few weeks. Really becoming a big concern, and teams are figuring out how to take advantage of him.

 

Hyde better come back or we’re going to have to look at a S in the early rounds.

[BearNorth]

The Bears Offense is a decent test for the Bills defense, which is down 2 key starters in Von & Micah.  Their Defense has been devastated by injuries, and the trade of Roquan, and that should be a mismatch against Buffalo's offense.  If Josh doesn't play due to injury, then this may be a good game to establish the running game for the playoffs.  The weather of course could be the great equalizer.  I trust McDermott & Co. will be focused on the game at hand and not looking ahead to the Bengals.

[Draconator]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I have thought about watching game replays recently.  I stayed away from it before to keep things raw and fresh (title of Gugny’s sex tape), but now I’m more open to it.  
 

It’s hard because they all seem to come off as “We are amazing” or “oh no, we suck again”

Are you sure "Oh no, we suck again" isn't the real name of Gugny's sex tape?

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Draconator said:

Are you sure "Oh no, we suck again" isn't the real name of Gugny's sex tape?

Honestly, his collection is so vast, I can’t keep up 

[Stranded in Boston]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

I've argued for years that one of my most enjoyable seasons was when the Bills went 3-13.   ... You relish in those wins longer than you do when you are expected to win ...

Thanks for another great write-up, Virgil; I look forward to them every week.

And I know what you mean about the power of low expectations: I'll never forget the 1971 Bills team that went 1-13 (I believe their worst record ever). The Bills lone win was against the Pats 27-20 (after starting that year 0-10), sealed by 2 picks by my man Robert James -- and still one of my favorite all-time games, LOL!

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

The Bears Offense is a decent test for the Bills defense, which is down 2 key starters in Von & Micah.  Their Defense has been devastated by injuries, and the trade of Roquan, and that should be a mismatch against Buffalo's offense.  If Josh doesn't play due to injury, then this may be a good game to establish the running game for the playoffs.  The weather of course could be the great equalizer.  I trust McDermott & Co. will be focused on the game at hand and not looking ahead to the Bengals.

Agreed.  Justin Fields and his running what really scares me.  When he is on, he is as hard a running  qb  to tackle as anyone.

[Virgil]

3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Agreed.  Justin Fields and his running what really scares me.  When he is on, he is as hard a running  qb  to tackle as anyone.

This is where I’m glad to have Lawson and Klein back.  Both were great in contain against Lamar

[ExWNYer]

3 minutes ago, Stranded in Boston said:

Thanks for another great write-up, Virgil; I look forward to them every week.

And I know what you mean about the power of low expectations: I'll never forget the 1971 Bills team that went 1-13 (I believe their worst record ever). The Bills lone win was against the Pats 27-20 (after starting that year 0-10), sealed by 2 picks by my man Robert James -- and still one of my favorite all-time games, LOL!

 

I wish some of the younger posters here could have seen good old #20 play. He was phenomenal. It's a shame that today's medical technology was not around for surgically repairing knees back in his day or he may have had a HoF...or at least a much longer...career. He was a special CB and is still one of my all-time favorite Bills.

[Stranded in Boston]

6 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

I wish some of the younger posters here could have seen good old #20 play. He was phenomenal. It's a shame that today's medical technology was not around for surgically repairing knees back in his day or he may have had a HoF...or at least a much longer...career. He was a special CB and is still one of my all-time favorite Bills.

Heck yes, Ex, #20 was special ... Several other really promising Bills players had their careers truncated by knee injuries before arthroscopic surgical techniques came to the fore -- Jerry Butler and Jeff Nixon spring to mind. And the Bills gave up on Ahmad Rashad after his knee injury -- prematurely, as it turned out!

[Low Positive]

Reading this thread reminded me that sports fans fall into some traps because we all care so much about things over which we have no control:

1. When the other team makes a play, we all search for "who's guilty" on our favorite team rather than acknowledging that the other team can and will make plays.  I think that we do this because we want to feel like the "problems" are fixable with better defensive technique and/or personnel. For example, Hill makes a lot of safeties take bad angles due to his olympic sprinter speed. I think that on this particular play Micah Hyde himself would have taken a "bad angle" because once Hill is at full stride there is little that you can do. I'm not saying Hamlin made a good play, but once Hill gets that ball where he did he is taking it to the house 9 times out of 10. This goes across all sports. To baseball fans, every HR hit by the other team is a bad pitch. On SabresSpace, every goal scored by the other team is a missed defensive assignment.  Sometimes the other team makes a play. Imagine being a Fins fan breaking down JA17 40+ yard run. You would blame the DC, the entire DL, LB corp, and the DBs. They all missed tackles and took bad angles.
2. Fans of every NFL team hate the OC. And I mean every team. We do this because it seems to us like a job that we could do. Fans also like the plays that work and hate the ones that don't. Everyone here has conveniently forgotten how much we used to hate Daboll. Go read the post game thread after the Jax debacle for a refresher. Bengals fans HATE Zach Taylor (he calls the plays) with the force of a thousand suns (I know because I live in Cincinnati and hear it all the time). Chiefs fans, after the past two games, want Andy Reid to give up play calling duties (I actually waded into the cesspool that is Chiefs Planet to confirm this). In Dorsey's case, if you look at the All-22 you'll see short and medium options open on every pass play. Dorsey is "scheming" them open but Josh Allen is just refusing to take the layups. It comes with the territory. A QB that takes the easy options doesn't even think to attempt that TD pass to Cook at the end of the 2nd. Nor does he scramble out wide, jump in the air, and throw a TD pass across his body instead of throwing the ball away like JA17 did in the Pats game. 
3. I think that Bills fans need to find a way to watch other NFL games with the same critical eye as they watch Bills games. Most NFL games are close, with a few plays deciding the outcomes. And most blowouts are the result of a strange  circumstances. For example, everyone is pumping up the Bengals right now but they would have lost to the Bucs if the Bucs offense had not TURNED THE BALL OVER ON FOUR STRAIGHT POSSESSIONS. The first one was a good play by a DB but the next three were a complete implosion by the His Royal Tomness. And in their great win over the KC Chiefs, the Mighty Cincinnati Bengals slot receiver and Bills' fan favorite Tyler Boyd had a worse drop than any this season by Davis or Knox. You just don't remember it because the Bengals won the game and it didn't hurt you on an emotion level.

 

[ExWNYer]

Just now, Stranded in Boston said:

Heck yes, Ex, #20 was special ... Several other really promising Bills players had their careers truncated by knee injuries before arthroscopic surgical techniques came to the fore -- Jerry Butler and Jeff Nixon spring to mind. And the Bills gave up on Ahmad Rashad after his knee injury -- prematurely, as it turned out!

 

I was excited when Jeff Nixon was drafted because he played here at the University of Richmond. As an alum of VCU and an avid Ram's basketball fan, I can't stand UR now but that's a story for another day. lol

 

I was a huge fan of all of the guys you mentioned. Jerry Butler's career day against the Jest was a thing of beauty and, when the Bills acquired Diggs, it immediately brought me back to the day when they got Ahmad Rashad from the Vikings.

[Let's Go Buffalo]

Good post as always, Virgil. To take some pressure off Josh, I would also like us to get the ball to our backs a little more on passes out of the backfield, getting them into some open space, and getting some easy yards that way as well. It seemed like we started to do that a little more for part of the Miami game, and with Motor, Hines, and Cook, it's not a bad combination of speed and agility if they're utilized properly. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

29 minutes ago, Virgil said:

This is where I’m glad to have Lawson and Klein back.  Both were great in contain against Lamar

Tremaine Edmunds also needs to really stand, we need his length along with Grot out in the game as well.  No missing tackles.

[Dan Darragh]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

Shakir, is out on the field quite a bit, but seems to only get 1-2 targets a game. 

He's had exactly 2 targets since the Minny game (that's 2 targets over 5 games)

[transient]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

Side note - If Cam Lewis makes one more dumb play, I want to see him cut mid-game.

You're too kind. I don't need another dumb play; I don't believe in three strikes when the mistakes are that egregious. I wanted him cut immediately after the brain fart against Minnesota. I wanted him beaten with a sock full of pennies THEN cut after the roughing the punter.

[WhoTom]

1 hour ago, Draconator said:

Are you sure "Oh no, we suck again" isn't the real name of Gugny's sex tape?

 

I think we can all agree that it's not "We are amazing."

 

[Stranded in Boston]

1 hour ago, ExWNYer said:

I was a huge fan of all of the guys you mentioned. Jerry Butler's career day against the Jest was a thing of beauty and, when the Bills acquired Diggs, it immediately brought me back to the day when they got Ahmad Rashad from the Vikings.

Love to talk old-time Bills stuff, thanks! I remember Jerry Butler's 4-TD explosion like yesterday ... But if I recall correctly, Bills traded for Rashad (previously known as Bobby Moore) from the St. Louis Cardinals. Seattle grabbed him from the Bills in the expansion draft -- and then he went on to a bunch of Pro Bowl seasons with the Vikes. (And poor Bobby Chandler was pretty much the whole Bills receiving game in the mid-70s after Rashad left!)

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

Last year it seemed our receivers were catching most of their passes in open space. For some reason, this year, most of the catches are tightly contested. To me that’s play design/scheme.

 

Not at all, our YAC was terrible last year. Most of the time receivers were catching the ball and then immediately getting tackled. It's a function of the receiving corps we've built. No YAC specialists. I thought Shakir was supposed to be that type but he hasn't been utilized. Same with Cook but despite being fast he gets tackled with very little resistance so that minimizes his ability to break long runs after catches.