How valuable is Hyde really?

[FreddieJizzle22]

He's a lot more valuable than this thread.  Sheesh.

[Mr. WEO]

18 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Scored a TD on every drive of a playoff game against an opponent that ate our lunch for the two decades prior.  That was an instant classic.

 

 

that opponent wasn't on the field.

[Beck Water]

13 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I asked if anyone thought it was possible, yes.

 

I have no doubt he will play next year for someone.

 

I think you should have doubt on that point.

 

Hyde and his camp have put out the narrative "healthy return in 2023", but the data are that roughly 2/3 return to play and 1/3 don't.

33% chance of not returning ain't small bananas

 

Which is why trade interest will be limited.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Beck Water

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

It was for a lot of us. After watching 20 years of frustration being unleashed and dealt out in the playoffs in front of the NFL world it was.

 

All I could think of after the game was Ralphie beating the heck out of Farkus (his bully) in Christmas Story.

I have a lot of non-Bills fans who contacted me after that game and they almost enjoyed seeing the Pats get destroyed as much as we did.

 

 

It wasn't Farkus.  It was more like Randy

[Beck Water]

 

13 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Oh no. This was someone openly questioning whether we should trade Tre because the rookies are playing so well.

 

Really?  I'm aware of the "move Tre to Safety" thread, but I musta missed that and can't find it.

 

Here's the Safety gem:

 

[julian]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

that opponent wasn't on the field.

I guess you could say that about any team not only from season to season but game to game, every roster fluctuates weekly.

[Never NEVER Give-up]

13 hours ago, Big Turk said:

You don't miss them...until you do. Eventually there will be a game where Hyde would have made a play Hamlin doesn't.

 

Arguably UNBEATEN if Hyde &/or Poyer play in Miami (there would have been no 3rd & 22 conversion)!

[teef]

46 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yeah but what if it's not the answer you like.  You can just keep moving goal posts right?

if you need the attention...yes.  

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Damn, I hate this thread so much.  Hyde has been either the 2nd or 3rd (Diggs is in there) most important player in turning this franchise around from its poverty drought phase to its SB contender phase.  
 

How valuable is he, really?  He’s tremendously valuable and if his replacements do a good job then credit to him on that, too.

 

Completely separate question about resigning him or letting him walk.  That’s a valid question when the time comes.  But the very title of this thread is insulting.

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Going off OvertheCap.com (which is not gospel but does provide a sensible baseline IMO) the figured cap relief from potential restructures next year are as follows:

 

White: $5,880,000

Allen: $21,536,000

Diggs: $5,596,000

Morse: $3,287,500

Dawkins: $6,393,750

HYDE: $4,301,250

Miller: $10,864,000

Milano: $6,315,000

 

Grand Total: $64,173,500

 

Granted they will not do all of those restructures. But they have plenty of wiggle room to play with. Notice also that a restructure (or an extension for that matter) with Hyde would actually save a bit more than a trade or cut. Add into that the fact that the salary cap will jump again next year...what's the problem?

 

You also mention Poyer by name as an "at who's expense" example. Well he will be 32 next year, has a growing list of injuries (including a collapsed lung this year) and would cost zero dead money to part ways with next season as he's not under contract. That seems like the obvious move if someone has to be left out. Why give him a contract if, like you said Hamlin costs less than $1 million. And yes Hamiln can play both spots back there.

 

 

 

 

Hamlin can play both spots-  but he can’t play them like Poyer and Hyde.  If Hamlin was replacing Poyer vs Baltimore- we’d have lost 💯 imo

it’s tough to gauge what players are worth on this well oiled machine and I don’t envy Beane 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by NewEra

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, teef said:

if you need the attention...yes.  

 

You two should go to a Blink182 concert.  

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, julian said:

I guess you could say that about any team not only from season to season but game to game, every roster fluctuates weekly.

 

 

That's not the point I was responding to.

[Logic]

I knew who started this thread before I even looked at the name. 

This is an Einstein special right here.
 

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

“Any fool can know, the point is to understand” - Albert Einstein

 

The single worst part of sport discussion forums is groupthink.

 

On this forum, groupthink coincides with an attack on anyone that gives even the slightest criticism of a current starter, coach, owner, or anyone affiliated with the team.

 

There is no room for understanding, predicting, analyzing and speaking truth to potentials departures. All room is taken up by the “knowing” crowd - those that “know” that another poster is wrong, should post less, etc. Your post above, in a nutshell.

 

Prior to the onslaught of “knowers” bashing my thread, several people had agreed with it. One deleted their post (they were one of the first responses), and another edited their post to say something different. This is because they don’t want to go against the crowd. Groupthink.

 

Dude, I believe in another post you objected to the 'ad hominem' - people substituting personal insults for meaningful debate - and rightly so.

 

Please understand that accusing those who disagree with you of "groupthink" (not wanting to go against the crowd) shows similar bankruptcy of argument skill and data as a debating tactic to the "ad hominem".  (There's probably a catchy latin phrase for it, but I don't know it)

 

This is a message board.  None of us are risking employment, public office, church leadership, or the safety of our families by posting here.   The chances that any of the folks here are "afraid" to express their opinion for fear of peer pressure is low to nil.

 

Moreover, many of us regularly express viewpoints others disagree with and wind up having civil debates about it until we reach an understanding of where we "agree to disagree" because we identify the base point where we see things differently.

 

You made a somewhat controversial post.  When disagreed with, you have yet to bolster much further evidence to your argument, you're turning to a "y'all are just Sheep, brainwashed to follow the herd" variant.  It doesn't make you look like your namesake, it makes you look Weak Sauce as a poster.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Beck Water

[teef]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You two should go to a Blink182 concert.  

i'd use him for the ride, but i'd really prefer out seats not be together.

[MarlinTheMagician]

Hyde is the man, he is very valuable.  Don't like this thread.

[Einstein]

27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

i don't think there's much trade market for a 32 yr old DB coming off neck surgery at $7.2M

 

If that is the case (and i’m not saying you’re wrong), then how valuable is he really?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would not trade even a 7th rounder for him?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would rather draft a guy they will likely cut, than trade for him?

[machine gun kelly]

Men, we’re onto Cincinatti.  Moving on.  Trolls will be trolls.

[Einstein]

38 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I understand the vitriol coming out in this thread, however I think it's relevant in a more broad sense. 

 

These are the types of questions that makes GMs GMs! It's a constant cost/benefit question, can't keep everyone, if you can can keep good performance out of a group with someone cheaper, and thus bring up a weaker group,  you have to consider it.

 

I love Hyde, I feel like I'm in the minority that leans towards him over Poyer.

However, say you can move on from one of the two, in exchange for better guard play.... do you do it? How much better does it buy you from guard position?

 

These are all offseason questions and things Beane will be constantly analyzing.

 

Yep.

Beane is surely thinking about this, even if fans don’t want to.

 

In fact I think he was thinking about it when he gave Hyde only a 2 year extension with an out after the 1st year.

[TH3]

13 hours ago, Einstein said:

Since Hyde has been out, our defense has given up 16 points per game. More impressively, they gave up only 20 to the high powered Chiefs.

 

🥵 I think you can make the argument that the Bills would have beaten the Dolphins with Hyde playing - that 3rd and 22(?) pass to Hill likely doesn’t happen. But then again, it may not have happened with Poyer playing. They were both out that game.

 

👉  I am certainly not saying we are better without Hyde… but I am asking, how much worse are we really? And does extending (or going into a contract year at $11M cap hit) worth not having a slight drop in quality?

 

Could we trade him for a draft asset?

 

💰 We have a potential “out” with his contact this off-season. It would save us about $4 million in cap space ($11M cap savings minus $7M in dead cap).

 

Hamlin & Johnson combined account for 1/5th of Hyde’s cap hit next year.

 

Poyer is 115 days younger than Hyde. If we had to pick one safety to keep, I think I may lean toward Poyer over Hyde.

 

Go Bills.

 

 

 

Hyde on the HOTSEAT

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

If that is the case (and i’m not saying you’re wrong), then how valuable is he really?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would not trade even a 7th rounder for him?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would rather draft a guy they will likely cut, than trade for him?

To other teams he’s a 32 year old safety that would be new to the scheme and locker room with 1 year left on his contract and they would have to give up a rookie contract for.

 

To Buffalo, he’s a team captain that has been a building block all pro, locker room leader that knows this system like the back of his hand who is already under contract and that we won’t have to give up picks for. Cutting him after injury could have a somewhat negative effect within the teams core.  
 

This isn’t madden kid.  There’s more to it

 

 

 

 

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Please understand that accusing those who disagree with you of "groupthink" (not wanting to go against the crowd) shows similar bankruptcy of argument skill and data as a debating tactic to the "ad hominem".  (There's probably a catchy latin phrase for it, but I don't know it)

 

I think you missed the context of the point. They are not just “disagreeing”. They are insulting, questioning fanhood, mocking intelligence and more.

 

Its actually groupthink combined with pack behavior.

[Jauronimo]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

If that is the case (and i’m not saying you’re wrong), then how valuable is he really?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would not trade even a 7th rounder for him?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would rather draft a guy they will likely cut, than trade for him?

He's one half of what is often considered the best safety duo in the league.  Unless he's physically unable to play, he is unlikely to be cut next year despite your compelling arguments.  Sounds valuable to me.

 

What do you think the trade market looks like for Hamlin?  OR Jaquan?  Or a Jaquan Hamlin package?  Sounds like we should cut the entire secondary and start over by your logic. 

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Einstein said:

Since Hyde has been out, our defense has given up 16 points per game. More impressively, they gave up only 20 to the high powered Chiefs.

 

 

Great point that since he's been out our defense has given up 16 points per game.

 

Weirdly, though, you forgot to include the fact that before he was out, our defense had given up 8.5 points per game. 

 

Meaning scoring against the defense has nearly doubled since Hyde is out. What a bizarre coincidence that you only mentioned the numbers afterwards. Can't think of any reason you might have left out those numbers from when he was playing.

[ColoradoBills]

Micah Hyde had neck surgery and is currently on IR.

His future in the NFL is uncertain at this point.

 

Most likely come March of next year will determine if he is capable of playing in the NFL.

If he isn't this whole thread is moot and Micah will retire.

 

On the other hand, he may be able to play and then it will be 2 options.

1.  He is completely cleared to play, and he is on the roster.

2.  He still is in recovery and will start the season on PUP.

 

Any fan speculation is useless until next spring.  I mean seriously, Micah, his doctors, his agent, Beane and McDermott can't even

consider what will happen with him until then.  These FACTS make this whole thread nothing but a troll job IMO.

[Einstein]

Just now, NewEra said:

To other teams he’s a 32 year old safety that would be new to the scheme and locker room with 1 year left on his contract and they would have to give up a rookie contract for.

 

And we should see him differently?

 

We should be the lone team that gives up a rookie contract for the 32 year old safety with 1 year left on his deal?

 

Im not so sure. I’m trying to see this from both sides and my opinion could certainly change as the season progresses but as of now…

[Einstein]

9 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Men, we’re onto Cincinatti.  Moving on.  Trolls will be trolls.

 

Offer stands 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/243157-how-valuable-is-hyde-really/?do=findComment&comment=7986865

 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

All good posts start with an insult.

 

 

A 2 year extension that doesn’t put him in the top 20 of safeties money-wise is a “big” extension to you? I don’t personally see it that way. I think it was a moderate extension that gives them an out after 2 years.

 

 

$7M in dead cap is not a lot. It is offset by regaining $11M in cap space. They save money by trading or cutting him, despite the dead cap.

 

This is called an “out” clause in the NFL and the Bills obviously structured it that way for a reason.

 

They also only gave him a 2 year deal for a reason.

 

 

I ignored it just like I “ignore” the fact that Hyde’s middle name is Richmond. It’s irrelevant to the discussion for all the reasons I listed above.

 

 

 

 

Nah, very few good posts start with an insult. But some posts are so bad there's not really another reasonable way to start. Yours have been consistently awful.

 

A two-year $19M extension? With $15M of the $19M guaranteed? For a safety? A 30 year-old safety? 

 

Duh! Of course this is a major commitment.

 

"$7M in dead cap is not a lot," you say. Again, just stupid. $7m dead money for a safety ... in the LAST year of his contract ... is really big. Minkah Fitzpatrick's dead money in the last year of his contract is $3.5M. Derwin James, the highest-paid safety in the league by AAV has $7.1M dead money in the last year of his contract, and he'll be 31, younger than Hyde would be in the last year of his. Jamal Adams in his last year has $7.1M and he'll be 30. Harrison Smith is $3.9M. Justin Smith is $3.7M.

 

And those are the five highest-paid safeties in the league. Again, just purely block-headed to argue $7M isn't an awful lot of dead money in the last year of a safety's contract. It absolutely is.

 

And no, it's not called an "'out' clause," as you claim. It's not a clause, Einstein. Yes, it's called an out. And you seem to completely misunderstand it. Every team has an out on every player every year. The question is how punitive it would be for the team to exercise the out. And Hyde's out is really punitive.

 

A player having a dead cap figure more than twice as high as the amount the team would save under the cap is painful. For the team. Yeah, this is an out. But some are more painful than others for the team to swallow. This would be very painful for the Bills. They'd essentially be paying $7M for the privilege of saving $3M.  That's not something a team looks to do.

 

Compare that to how painful it would be for those five players I noted above, arguably the best safeties in the league. It'd be much less painful for their teams to cut them before the last year of the contract.

 

Last year of Derwin James' contract, age 30:  Dead cap $7.1 M, but they'd save $17.5M. Paying $7.1M for the privilege of saving $17.5M.

 

Last year of Minkah Pitzpatrick's contract, age 30:  $3.5M dead cap, but they'd save $17.6M. Paying $3.5M dead cap for the privilege of saving $17.6M.

 

Last year of Jamal Adams' contract, age 30: $7.1M dead cap, but they'd save $17.5M salary and a $3.1M option bonus. See how this works? They cut these guys before the last year of their contract and the team gets a massive benefit. Same for Harrison Smith. Justin Simmons' contract is slightly less so. His dead cap would be $3.7M and the team would only save $14.5M. 

 

Get it?

 

These are the five highest-paid safeties, and it would be much less painful to cut them in their last year than it would be for the Bills to cut Hyde at age 32, older than any of these others.

 

They love the guy. 

 

And yes they gave him a two-year deal for a reason, Einstein. The reason being he's getting older and they didn't want to get too far ahead of themselves for an older guy.

 

As for the last but problably not quite the most pathetic of your paragraphs, you say, "I ignored it just like I “ignore” the fact that Hyde’s middle name is Richmond. It’s irrelevant to the discussion for all the reasons I listed above." Funny how you didn't include any of what I said or what you said, so nobody could judge it's irrelevance. So let me do so, so people can actually look at it and see.

 

You said:   

 

11 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes - 26.5 year old Hyde was targeted as a foundational guy by McDermott half a decade ago.

 

Not soon-to-be 32 year old Hyde, half a decade later.

 

 

I said this:

 

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

They targeted him five years ago by bringing him in. Then they again targeted him before the 2021 season by giving him a big new contract extension through 2023. At age 30, they made it very clear that they wanted him through 2023 in the most obvious and public way, by giving him a contract that even in the last year, 2023, would have cost $7M in dead cap money to get rid of him. 

You ignore this because it doesn't suit your dumb argument.

 

 

That's not irrelevant. Just inconvenient for your dumb argument. 

 

What a maroon!

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Thurman#1

[John from Riverside]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I think you missed the context of the point. They are not just “disagreeing”. They are insulting, questioning fanhood, mocking intelligence and more.

 

Its actually groupthink combined with pack behavior.

Or maybe we just don’t like you

[nedboy7]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

If that is the case (and i’m not saying you’re wrong), then how valuable is he really?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would not trade even a 7th rounder for him?

 

How valuable is a player that 31 NFL teams would rather draft a guy they will likely cut, than trade for him?

 

LOL.  I think you made your point.  You seem irritated you aren't leading this groupthink. 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Nah, very few good posts start with an insult. But some posts are so bad there's not really another reasonable way to start.

 

You go about life thinking that if someone has an opinion that is “so bad” (which is just another way to say that it is different than what you think), then you should insult that person?

 

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

A two-year $19M extension? With $15M of the $19M guaranteed? For a safety? A 30 year-old safety? 

 

Those numbers made him the 22nd paid safety in contract value.

 

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Duh! Of course this is a major commitment.

 

It’s actually not. 

 

Not even for his age. Harrison Smith at 32 y/on has a larger contract. So does Tyrann Matthieu, and Quandre Diggs, and Jimmy Ward, etc.

 

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

"$7M in dead cap is not a lot," you say. Again, just stupid. $7m dead money for a safety ... in the LAST year of his contract ... is really big.

 

No it’s not. On a 2 year deal there is no way to avoid dead money other than making him a post June cut - which perhaps they will do. Then his dead money will reduce to $3.5M and we will save $7.5M.
 

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Minkah Fitzpatrick's dead money in the last year of his contract is $3.5M. Derwin James, the highest-paid safety in the league by AAV has $7.1M dead money in the last year of his contract, and he'll be 31, younger than Hyde would be in the last year of his. Jamal Adams in his last year has $7.1M and he'll be 30. Harrison Smith is $3.9M. Justin Smith is $3.7M.

 

Because none of these players have 2 year deals. Do you understand how the cap works and spreading cap hits over years?

 

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

And Hyde's out is really punitive.

 

A player having a dead cap figure more than twice as high as the amount the team would save under the cap is painful.

 

Something can’t be punitive when it saves you money.

 

It’s not a situation where the dead cap is $7M and they save $2M, so they are in the negative.

 

As it stands, they are POSITIVE $4M.

 

If they make him a post June cut, that positive increases to $7.5M.

[jkeerie]

14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I don't know I like having him around.

 

 

Wallace was beaten badly that play.  Glad the Bills let him walk.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Jay Skurski

@JaySkurski

·

9m

Sean McDermott says Micah Hyde "carries so much influence as a leader on our football team." McDermott jokes that Hyde isn't interested in being a coach, per se, but it's clear he's going to be involved. McDermott doesn't rule out Hyde being on the sideline during games. #Bills

 

[Simon]

5 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Sean McDermott says Micah Hyde "carries so much influence as a leader on our football team." McDermott jokes that Hyde isn't interested in being a coach, per se, but it's clear he's going to be involved. McDermott doesn't rule out Hyde being on the sideline during games. #Bills

 

Seems like a good final word