Ryan "Rick" Bates Watch Thread

[RocCityRoller]

8 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

It would have been silly to do it.  Whatever Minny offers, he doesn't just leave so why would you lock yourself into giving him more money when it's not likely he'll leave?

 

Would you accept a 2nd round pick for him straight up right now?

 

I sure would. Better than nothing. $3.9 million is not breaking the bank. They spent that on a washed up TE#2.

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

I sure would. Better than nothing. $3.9 million is not breaking the bank. They spent that on a washed up TE#2.

I predict that washed up TE number 2 is going to explode this season

[Buddo]

1 minute ago, Malazan said:

 

It would have been silly to do it.  Whatever Minny offers, he doesn't just leave so why would you lock yourself into giving him more money when it's not likely he'll leave?

 

Would you accept a 2nd round pick for him straight up right now?

 

It would be a lot easier to find a replacement with a 2nd round pick.

 

It's also a lot less likely that someone would make him an offer, if they have to give up a pick to do it, if successful.

 

The other reality is that if he continues his development, he would command more than the measley $3.9m it was going to cost to keep him here, especially bearing in mind we were on the hook for $2.4m anyway - just by tendering him.

[Malazan]

13 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

I sure would. Better than nothing. $3.9 million is not breaking the bank. They spent that on a washed up TE#2.

 

4 minutes ago, Buddo said:

 

It would be a lot easier to find a replacement with a 2nd round pick.

 

It's also a lot less likely that someone would make him an offer, if they have to give up a pick to do it, if successful.

 

The other reality is that if he continues his development, he would command more than the measley $3.9m it was going to cost to keep him here, especially bearing in mind we were on the hook for $2.4m anyway - just by tendering him.

 

Ya'll seem very confused. He doesn't just leave if Minnesota makes him an offer. The Bills can choose to match whatever they offer. 

 

You're literally saying they should have tied up 1.5 million of cap space on the slim possibility that cap strapped Minnesota makes him an offer the Bills are unwilling to match. 

 

You both just indicated he "unlikely" to be replaced by a 2nd round pick... so again, why definitely tie up 1.5 million in cap space on the low risk someone makes him an offer you're unwilling to match? 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Malazan

[RocCityRoller]

5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I predict that washed up TE number 2 is going to explode this season

 

Howard's best season was very Charles Clay like 34-565-5. That was his 2nd season and before injury.

 

As good as medical advancements have been on ACL/ MCL/ PCL (Knee injuries) the recovery rate in the NFL is abysmal for Achilles tears.

 

It seems that we disagree that 1) Ryan Bates is a starting level OG worth $3.9 million, and that 2) OJ Howard is washed up ($3.5 million)

[Warcodered]

5 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

Ya'll seem very confused. He doesn't just leave if Minnesota makes him an offer. The Bills can choose to match whatever they offer. 

 

You're literally saying they should have tied up 1.5 million of cap space on the slim possibility that cap strapped Minnesota makes him an offer the Bills are unwilling to match. 

 

You both just indicated he "unlikely" to be replaced by a 2nd round pick... so again, why definitely tie up 1.5 million in cap space on the low risk someone makes him an offer you're unwilling to match? 

Right so to me it seems like it'd be weider if he didn't go out and look for offers, otherwise he's just accepting whatever the Bills are willing to give him at minimum.

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Howard's best season was very Charles Clay like 34-565-5. That was his 2nd season and before injury.

 

As good as medical advancements have been on ACL/ MCL/ PCL (Knee injuries) the recovery rate in the NFL is abysmal for Achilles tears.

 

It seems that we disagree that 1) Ryan Bates is a starting level OG worth $3.9 million, and that 2) OJ Howard is washed up ($3.5 million)

Ryan Bates is worth more then that

[Malazan]

3 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Howard's best season was very Charles Clay like 34-565-5. That was his 2nd season and before injury.

 

As good as medical advancements have been on ACL/ MCL/ PCL (Knee injuries) the recovery rate in the NFL is abysmal for Achilles tears.

 

It seems that we disagree that 1) Ryan Bates is a starting level OG worth $3.9 million, and that 2) OJ Howard is washed up ($3.5 million)

 

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Ryan Bates is worth more then that

 

What the heck do you two not understand that the Bills might agree with you, but they had NO REASON to give it to him unless they have to?

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

Ya'll seem very confused. He doesn't just leave if Minnesota makes him an offer. The Bills can choose to match whatever they offer. 

 

You're literally saying they should have tied up 1.5 million of cap space on the slim possibility that cap strapped Minnesota makes him an offer the Bills are unwilling to match. 

 

You both just indicated he "unlikely" to be replaced by a 2nd round pick... so again, why definitely tie up 1.5 million in cap space on the low risk someone makes him an offer you're unwilling to match? 

I don't view it as a low risk. I view it as a medium risk. Bates is a good player.

 

But if we lose him, we lose him. We'll survive. But we can expect the guard position to continue to be a problem.

[Malazan]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't view it as a low risk. I view it as a medium risk. Bates is a good player.

 

But if we lose him, we lose him. We'll survive. But we can expect the guard position to continue to be a problem.

 

How many players restricted free agent receive, accept and then leave each year? 

 

TBD should partner up with some online therapy. Embed it into each thread with "I'M HAVING AN EMOTIONAL PANIC BASED ON THINGS THAT HAVEN'T HAPPENED AND ARE UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN" then take 10% and fund this place for the next 10,000 years in a week. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Malazan

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

What the heck do you two not understand that the Bills might agree with you, but they had NO REASON to give it to him unless they have to?

hmmmm I think this got garbled.   Bates may very well set the market for himself by going to the Vikings and then the bills match.

 

I was saying that Bates is def a starting OG on this team....and gives double duty as the backup center.

[MrEpsYtown]

It is an interesting way to get a long term deal signed as well. I would think that the Viking would try to pry him with multiple years. It sets the market and gives Bates and the Bills an idea of what he is worth. 

[RocCityRoller]

6 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

Ya'll seem very confused. He doesn't just leave if Minnesota makes him an offer. The Bills can choose to match whatever they offer. 

 

You're literally saying they should have tied up 1.5 million of cap space on the slim possibility that cap strapped Minnesota makes him an offer the Bills are unwilling to match. 

 

You both just indicated he "unlikely" to be replaced by a 2nd round pick... so again, why definitely tie up 1.5 million in cap space on the low risk someone makes him an offer you're unwilling to match? 

 

Buffalo put a $2,433,000 tender on him for right of refusal. A second round tender this year was only $3,986,000

 

A starting level OG who played like Bates did, pulls like Bates and energized the run game (see the videos I posted) and is the backup C is worth $3.9 million to me. Far more valuable than a busted up TE#2 making $3.5 million, and making a potential roster hole on the OL.

 

If Minnesota offers anything more than $2.43 million in year one of a contract Buffalo can match. If Buffalo does not want to/ can not match in 10 days he goes to Minnesota and Buffalo gets nothing but Cody Ford starting at OG, or another hole to fill in the draft.

 

I guess the difference is whether the Bills FO (or the fans on this board for discourse) think Bates is a starter or not. I do and a handful of others do. Additionally it will depend on what Minnesota thinks. The man more than held his own in the playoffs on an offense that turned in two of the all time great offensive performances.

 

I'd rather spend $3.9 million on the 2nd round tender, and have a full season to evaluate him full time. If Minnesota or another team wants to show him starter money, and Buffalo can not match, at least OBD has Minnesota's 2nd to backfill the position. Putting the 2nd on a guy deters a lot of teams from considering making him an offer in the first place.

 

The second round tender makes other teams consider if a guy is worth the contract and a 2nd rounder.

[SCBills]

If we didn’t have Kromer as OL coach, this would worry me.  
 

I am unbothered. 

[Malazan]

23 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

I guess the difference is whether the Bills FO (or the fans on this board for discourse) think Bates is a starter or not. I do and a handful of others do. Additionally it will depend on what Minnesota thinks. The man more than held his own in the playoffs on an offense that turned in two of the all time great offensive performances.

 

I'd rather spend $3.9 million on the 2nd round tender, and have a full season to evaluate him full time. If Minnesota or another team wants to show him starter money, and Buffalo can not match, at least OBD has Minnesota's 2nd to backfill the position. Putting the 2nd on a guy deters a lot of teams from considering making him an offer in the first place.

 

No one is arguing that he should be a starter. The argument is 100% chance of using 1.5 million cap space vs the calculated risk of him being signed for an amount the Bills won't match. 

 

Minnesota currently has less cap space than the Bills do.. go lookup the rates that RFA get signed to other teams. 

 

You're having a meltdown over a conversation about a possibility from a team that would have to free up cap space to make the offer to do something that's pretty rare. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Malazan

[Paul Costa]

So if Minnesota offers him 4 million we can match and everything is fine. If they offer 5 or 6 or a multi year deal Bills will have a decision to make. We probably need to leave the big boy stuff to Beane. Nice to say what you would have done but none of us really know exactly what’s going on at One Bills Drive .

[Buddo]

37 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

Ya'll seem very confused. He doesn't just leave if Minnesota makes him an offer. The Bills can choose to match whatever they offer. 

 

You're literally saying they should have tied up 1.5 million of cap space on the slim possibility that cap strapped Minnesota makes him an offer the Bills are unwilling to match. 

 

You both just indicated he "unlikely" to be replaced by a 2nd round pick... so again, why definitely tie up 1.5 million in cap space on the low risk someone makes him an offer you're unwilling to match? 

 

The Bills were supposedly cap strapped, yet somehow they have managed to get Von Miller. Maybe the idea of being cap strapped, is somewhat overblown, especially when talking about the odd few million here or there, as opposed to, say $120m.

 

There is no confusion by the way. I'm well aware that the Bills can match the offer. Much of the argument is about why put yourself in that position, just to save $1.5 million, and potentially lose a player whose worth to the team, is very likely to become considerably more than that, given a continued opportunity.

 

Any offer above $3.9million average, means it's going to cost the Bills more to retain him than the 2nd round tender amount.

 

It doesn't make much sense strategically either. We've cut a guard/center, and a guard/tackle, and then risk either losing, or potentially having to overpay, a guy who can cover all of those positions, who was also clearly our best starting guard, when eventually given the chance.

 

The worst case scenaio, atm, is that Bates could go elsewhere, with the Bills unwilling to match. That probably creates 2 holes in the roster, in respect of guard and center (backup).

 

If tendered at the higher level, worst case scenario would be that Bates goes elsewhere, holes are still created, but the Bills have a 2nd round pick to address at least one of those holes. For a mere $1.5 million extra spent.

[Magox]

The Bills rolled the dice and they may end up paying the price.  In my view, he would be a pretty significant loss.  Yes, it is a rather smallish sample size but he did perform well down the stretch.  If the Bills lose out and have to replace him, they very likely may end up downgrading in FA to replace him and hope that one of their draft choices end up being better.  

 

Personally, I would rather have Bates be in the mix for the competition with the inside track.

[BuffaloButt]

Surprised the Giants aren't meeting with him also!

[Malazan]

8 minutes ago, Buddo said:

 

The Bills were supposedly cap strapped, yet somehow they have managed to get Von Miller. Maybe the idea of being cap strapped, is somewhat overblown, especially when talking about the odd few million here or there, as opposed to, say $120m.

 

There is no confusion by the way. I'm well aware that the Bills can match the offer. Much of the argument is about why put yourself in that position, just to save $1.5 million, and potentially lose a player whose worth to the team, is very likely to become considerably more than that, given a continued opportunity.

 

Any offer above $3.9million average, means it's going to cost the Bills more to retain him than the 2nd round tender amount.

 

It doesn't make much sense strategically either. We've cut a guard/center, and a guard/tackle, and then risk either losing, or potentially having to overpay, a guy who can cover all of those positions, who was also clearly our best starting guard, when eventually given the chance.

 

The worst case scenaio, atm, is that Bates could go elsewhere, with the Bills unwilling to match. That probably creates 2 holes in the roster, in respect of guard and center (backup).

 

If tendered at the higher level, worst case scenario would be that Bates goes elsewhere, holes are still created, but the Bills have a 2nd round pick to address at least one of those holes. For a mere $1.5 million extra spent.

 

Clearly, there's confusion. No such offer has been made.

 

This argument of yours is.. I don't even know. You're suggesting to pay him more money so you don't 'risk' having to 'overpay' him. This is the same logic that companies use to sell extended warranties to dumb people. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Malazan

[Donuts and Doritos]

This is a big deal. Need to keep Bates or we end up w/ a huge hole on the O-line. We've let a lot of guys walk this off-season. (Only guys I think we've resigned McKenzie, Neal, Kumerow). Needed to go w/ the higher tender. 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

I sure would. Better than nothing. $3.9 million is not breaking the bank. They spent that on a washed up TE#2.

Only he isn't washed up 

 

He was underutilized on  good teams ... And players zone in when they realize they have limited opportunities left

[MrEpsYtown]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloButt said:

Surprised the Giants aren't meeting with him also!

Bobby Johnson kept him on the bench all these years. So I guess he’s happy with good ole Mongo

[RocCityRoller]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Only he isn't washed up 

 

He was underutilized on  good teams ... And players zone in when they realize they have limited opportunities left

 

He was beat out by a UDFA and a guy who was out of football for a year, because he was mediocre before his injury.

 

His best year was 34-565-5, his very best year in his 2nd year as an uncontested 1st round pick. That is Charles Clay like production before an Achilles tear.

Most NFL players with an Achilles never rebound. It is a career killer injury in the NFL (feel sorry for Ike Boettger).

 

It's not a matter of zoning in or working harder. It's a loss of power, quickness and speed. As it was OJ Howard had difficulty separating, and had questionable hands. He has never been the inline blocker Gronk is, much less his hands. Even Cameron Brate, a UDFA has surpassed him in both regards.

 

I would have rather spent the money on a 'poison pill' 2nd round tender on Bates,and take a swing on a mid round TE like Charlie Kolar in the draft.

 

That is just my opinion. I hope Minnesota messes up and doesn't create a contract that is difficult to match. We did this with Clay.....

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

 

How many players restricted free agent receive, accept and then leave each year? 

 

TBD should partner up with some online therapy. Embed it into each thread with "I'M HAVING AN EMOTIONAL PANIC BASED ON THINGS THAT HAVEN'T HAPPENED AND ARE UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN" then take 10% and fund this place for the next 10,000 years in a week. 

You are quite passionate about this.

[Buddo]

10 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

Clearly, there's confusion. No such offer has been made.

 

This argument of yours is.. I don't even know. You're suggesting to pay him more money so you don't 'risk' having to 'overpay' him. This is the same logic that companies use to sell extended warranties to dumb people. 

 

Clearly, you have reading comprehension difficulties, of the type that means you don't read the whole thing.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I'm just glad signings and cuts aren't made by vote of posters on TBD or we'd be so far over the cap in no time. Posters here want to give money out like it's candy and panic over everything.

 

Yes Bates did well and the team played better once he was in the lineup.   But he wasn't exactly in pro bowl discussion.  Maybe the reason the team improved was more due to how bad Feleciano was once he lost the weight. Mid year they switched Williams from tackle to guard, they survived that OK.  The season before mid year they benched then cut Spain and we went to the conference championship game.  Think there's too much over valuation of a player.  Have a hard time seeing him worth $4 mil.

 

Seems not to many RFA get the 2nd round tender as either the player is worth a long term deal and was done or he's marginal talent who is given the lower tender.

 

Assuming Bates would rather play in Buffalo and the Vikings make him an offer.  BEFORE HE ACTUALLY WERE TO SIGN ANYTHING is there anything to prevent him from taking that offer back to Buffalo for them to match.   This would allow Buffalo to match the spirit of the contract, give the same money overall, but structure it in a way that fits the Bills cap situation rather than having to identically the Vikings offer.  Where as once he signs, then the Bills need to match all the terms including any potential poison pen terms.  It may be unethical but is it not allowed?

[Malazan]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I'm just glad signings and cuts aren't made by vote of posters on TBD or we'd be so far over the cap in no time. Posters here want to give money out like it's candy and panic over everything.

 

Yes Bates did well and the team played better once he was in the lineup.   But he wasn't exactly in pro bowl discussion.  Maybe the reason the team improved was more due to how bad Feleciano was once he lost the weight. Mid year they switched Williams from tackle to guard, they survived that OK.  The season before mid year they benched then cut Spain and we went to the conference championship game.  Think there's too much over valuation of a player.  Have a hard time seeing him worth $4 mil.

 

Seems not to many RFA get the 2nd round tender as either the player is worth a long term deal and was done or he's marginal talent who is given the lower tender.

 

Assuming Bates would rather play in Buffalo and the Vikings make him an offer.  BEFORE HE ACTUALLY WERE TO SIGN ANYTHING is there anything to prevent him from taking that offer back to Buffalo for them to match.   This would allow Buffalo to match the spirit of the contract, give the same money overall, but structure it in a way that fits the Bills cap situation rather than having to identically the Vikings offer.  Where as once he signs, then the Bills need to match all the terms including any potential poison pen terms.  It may be unethical but is it not allowed?

 

We'd be over the cap and not have 22 players signed to actually play. 

 

The 2nd, it's not even his choice. Buffalo gets to choose if they match it which is why all this panic is utterly stupid. 

[Buffalo716]

32 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

He was beat out by a UDFA and a guy who was out of football for a year, because he was mediocre before his injury.

 

His best year was 34-565-5, his very best year in his 2nd year as an uncontested 1st round pick. That is Charles Clay like production before an Achilles tear.

Most NFL players with an Achilles never rebound. It is a career killer injury in the NFL (feel sorry for Ike Boettger).

 

It's not a matter of zoning in or working harder. It's a loss of power, quickness and speed. As it was OJ Howard had difficulty separating, and had questionable hands. He has never been the inline blocker Gronk is, much less his hands. Even Cameron Brate, a UDFA has surpassed him in both regards.

 

I would have rather spent the money on a 'poison pill' 2nd round tender on Bates,and take a swing on a mid round TE like Charlie Kolar in the draft.

 

That is just my opinion. I hope Minnesota messes up and doesn't create a contract that is difficult to match. We did this with Clay.....

A Charles clay player isn't a scrub

 

Even if we overpaid for clay he led our team in catches and was a top 32 TE in the league..  not to mention the best statistical tight end we've had here in a decade Plus 

 

Howard is a backup not a starter.. and was considered one of the best players in his draft 

 

An athletic freak with big play capability who are not paying much

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

He was beat out by a UDFA and a guy who was out of football for a year, because he was mediocre before his injury.

 

His best year was 34-565-5, his very best year in his 2nd year as an uncontested 1st round pick. That is Charles Clay like production before an Achilles tear.

Most NFL players with an Achilles never rebound. It is a career killer injury in the NFL (feel sorry for Ike Boettger).

 

It's not a matter of zoning in or working harder. It's a loss of power, quickness and speed. As it was OJ Howard had difficulty separating, and had questionable hands. He has never been the inline blocker Gronk is, much less his hands. Even Cameron Brate, a UDFA has surpassed him in both regards.

 

I would have rather spent the money on a 'poison pill' 2nd round tender on Bates,and take a swing on a mid round TE like Charlie Kolar in the draft.

 

That is just my opinion. I hope Minnesota messes up and doesn't create a contract that is difficult to match. We did this with Clay.....

 

I think the bolded is an outdated take.  Here's an article which references a bunch of studies (quote below is from one of the referenced studies):

 

Quote

“We found that 61.3% of NFL players were able to successfully (Return to Play) at a mean 11.90 months following a primary (Achilles tendon) tear... Players who returned displayed a significant decrease in the number of games played in the return season when compared with seasons preceding injury. However, when we examined >1 season following return, (Achilles tendon) tears appeared to not affect ability, as there was no significant difference in pre- and post-injury number of games played or started. Our findings suggest that players may return to preinjury performance levels if given the opportunity.”

 

Article also points out:

Quote

In fact, in recent years there have been several cases among NFL players where they have returned to the field with relatively no setbacks, including Demaryius Thomas, Jason Peters, Terrell Suggs, Vince Wilfork, as well as former Lion Kerry Hyder and current Lion Jashon Cornell.

 

There's also the case of Eric Fischer, the Chiefs long time LT, who tore his Achilles in the AFCCG.  The Chiefs cut him and traded for Orlando Brown.

Fischer signed with the Colts and was back in just under 8 months, starting for the Colts - although he acknowledged he wasn't fully himself yet:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/01/eric-fisher-has-returned-to-play-but-acknowledged-hes-not-100-percent-yet/

(He pretty clearly got better as the season moved on).

 

In any event, he's now >1 season past the injury, so return to pre-injury performance is possible.

 

Prior to the injury, he had Jameis Winston throwing to him.  Don't know how that affects things, but the Bucs kept him on the field for 48% of the snaps in 2020 and 31% in 2021, which is a lot of field-time for a guy who apparently can neither block nor catch when he's on said field and with two quality TE available.

 

The cap is fluid, but Minnesota currently has <$2M of cap space.  Question: do you believe Bates is the type of player you rearrange your cap and kick the can down the road for, to create a "poison pill" contract?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

I sure would. Better than nothing. $3.9 million is not breaking the bank. They spent that on a washed up TE#2.

 

$3.9M would currently slot Bates in at #14 on the Bills cap list, with Phillips Lawson Jones and Saffold unknown, Bates said by Schefter to be lower, and Miller assumed to be higher.

 

Is Bates a top-20 player on the Bills roster?

 

Neither Wallace nor Harrison Phillips would have broken our bank to sign, as it happens.  But Beane had a value on them, and he wasn't going to exceed it.

Beane evidently does not consider Bates a $3.9M value.

 

Now, maybe he's wrong - if there's one position where this regime seems to struggle with talent identification, OL seems to be it.  But maybe he's not.

 

 

[Turbo44]

Trust in Beane. If doesn’t re-sign him there’s a reason. Plus who knows if he fits in well with the new Oline coach?? 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

We'd be over the cap and not have 22 players signed to actually play. 

 

The 2nd, it's not even his choice. Buffalo gets to choose if they match it which is why all this panic is utterly stupid. 

 

I understand not his choice if a signed offer is brought to the Bills, they can match or not.  But what if Bates gets an offer from Minn, before he signs anything his agent contacts Beane and says look he really wants to stay in Buffalo, will you match this and they do but in away convenient to the Bills cap situation and not have to worry about matching the Vikings terms.

 

It may be that once you tender a player, the team tendering i.e. Bills can't give him another contract until after April 25th when the tender period ends.  The more I think about it, ta rule like this would make sense to prevent teams from easily doing what I described.

[pennstate10]

Not giving Bates a 2nd round tender was a gamble.

If he ends up signing for >$4.0 million, Bills were wrong.

 

In that situation, if they match, they pay him more than the $3.9 mil a 2nd round tender woudl have cost.

If they dont match, they lose out on an extra 2nd round pick.

 

If Bates offer is <$4.0 million, Bills made the right call.  

 

Given the way Bills OL played last 5 games of the season, I think you want to keep the OL as intact as possible (DW salary was far too high, so he had to go).  Given that caveat, I think Bills should have used the 2nd round tender, which would have scared away all other teams.  Now they need to sweat a bit.

[Rigotz]

I would be worried if the Vikings didn’t have $1.7M in cap space and basically no restructure moves left.

[Paul Costa]

52 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

$3.9M would currently slot Bates in at #14 on the Bills cap list, with Phillips Lawson Jones and Saffold unknown, Bates said by Schefter to be lower, and Miller assumed to be higher.

 

Is Bates a top-20 player on the Bills roster?

 

Neither Wallace nor Harrison Phillips would have broken our bank to sign, as it happens.  But Beane had a value on them, and he wasn't going to exceed it.

Beane evidently does not consider Bates a $3.9M value.

 

Now, maybe he's wrong - if there's one position where this regime seems to struggle with talent identification, OL seems to be it.  But maybe he's not.

 

 

💯

27 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Not giving Bates a 2nd round tender was a gamble.

If he ends up signing for >$4.0 million, Bills were wrong.

 

In that situation, if they match, they pay him more than the $3.9 mil a 2nd round tender woudl have cost.

If they dont match, they lose out on an extra 2nd round pick.

 

If Bates offer is <$4.0 million, Bills made the right call.  

 

Given the way Bills OL played last 5 games of the season, I think you want to keep the OL as intact as possible (DW salary was far too high, so he had to go).  Given that caveat, I think Bills should have used the 2nd round tender, which would have scared away all other teams.  Now they need to sweat a bit.

You need to apply for Beane’s job. Pegula will give you special consideration your White & a Penn State Grad 👍

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Beane evidently does not consider Bates a $3.9M value.

 

 

That's not necessarily true. We don't know what Beane will do if Minny (or some other team) offers him that much.

 

40 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Not giving Bates a 2nd round tender was a gamble.

If he ends up signing for >$4.0 million, Bills were wrong.

 

In that situation, if they match, they pay him more than the $3.9 mil a 2nd round tender woudl have cost.

If they dont match, they lose out on an extra 2nd round pick.

 

If Bates offer is <$4.0 million, Bills made the right call.  

 

 

The Bills still might match if the offer exceeds the 2nd round tender of $3.9 million. Put differently the fact of tendering him at the "original round" level doesn't preclude the Bills from signing him for more than that.

 

Tendering him at the original round level might just be a calculated risk of trying to get him at a lower price point. They might still be willing to pay him more if forced to.

 

Anyways we'll all find out soon enough.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Sierra Foothills

[RocCityRoller]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the bolded is an outdated take.  Here's an article which references a bunch of studies (quote below is from one of the referenced studies):

 

 

Article also points out:

 

There's also the case of Eric Fischer, the Chiefs long time LT, who tore his Achilles in the AFCCG.  The Chiefs cut him and traded for Orlando Brown.

Fischer signed with the Colts and was back in just under 8 months, starting for the Colts - although he acknowledged he wasn't fully himself yet:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/01/eric-fisher-has-returned-to-play-but-acknowledged-hes-not-100-percent-yet/

(He pretty clearly got better as the season moved on).

 

In any event, he's now >1 season past the injury, so return to pre-injury performance is possible.

 

Prior to the injury, he had Jameis Winston throwing to him.  Don't know how that affects things, but the Bucs kept him on the field for 48% of the snaps in 2020 and 31% in 2021, which is a lot of field-time for a guy who apparently can neither block nor catch when he's on said field and with two quality TE available.

 

The cap is fluid, but Minnesota currently has <$2M of cap space.  Question: do you believe Bates is the type of player you rearrange your cap and kick the can down the road for, to create a "poison pill" contract?

 

Great info on Achilles injuries. I did note that the last good medical journal I had access to so far ended in 2016. As I stated at least 30% of players are out of the NFL after their second year after an Achilles tear, nothing posted above disproves that.

 

I believe Bates is a top 30-40 OG in the NFL. There are 64, he is in or near the top half IMO.

 

You asked:

"The cap is fluid, but Minnesota currently has <$2M of cap space.  Question: do you believe Bates is the type of player you rearrange your cap and kick the can down the road for, to create a "poison pill" contract?"

 

Let's be honest, you are kind of mixing up Minnesota's cap situation with Buffalo's strategy in that question. I believe signing a proven guard, and backup center for $3.9 million to protect JA is worth it. Maybe you don't. The Guard play I saw from games and reviewed in videos at the end of the season (see videos) from Bates is worth $3.98 million if unmatched. The net difference between the ROFR tender the Bills placed, and a 'poison pill' for a second round tender was only $1.5 million. Penny wise, pound foolish.

 

This was a strategic miss.

 

Let's look at Minnesota offering Bates a 3 yr/$15M contract (not a crazy amount)

 

ROFR (Tendered by Buffalo):

If I am Minnesota, do I make cap arrangements to offer Bates 3yrs/ $15 million and no draft pick penalty for doing so? Heck 2/$8M might do the trick. Yes I do. Easy question. Force Buffalo to make another cut or restructure to keep him. Buffalo already cut/ restructured for Von Miller and others. They even dumped Beasley already. Who would be next?

 

2nd Round Tender: (1.5 million more, the path I would have preferred)

If I am Minnesota, do I make cap arrangements to offer Bates 2ys/$8M or 3yrs/ $15 million and have to give up my second round pick? No I probably do not. The cost of having to give up my 2nd round pick to Buffalo (46th pick in Minnesota's case), on top of the contract will heavily dissuade me from that signing even if the money is right. Minnesota may even want to offer Bates 3yrs/18M or 4yr/20M, but that 46th pick may be worth more than the cap adjustments and risk.

 

That is the poison pill. It is worth $1.5 million IMO.

 

Let's say in this situation, Minnesota does offer 2/$8M, 3/$15M or 4/$20M and the 2nd. Buffalo can not match, but at least they receive Minnesota's pick #46 to offset the loss. One can find some really good IOL around there. Creed Humphrey went later than that. In that case pair a 2nd and 1st and move up for a stud CB and still have a 2nd for a WR or OG/C. The options are endless.

 

As for Buffalo, there is no need to 'rearrange your cap' by having the $3.98M 2nd round tender in place instead of the ROFR. Buffalo already put a $2.43 million tender on Bates. It is a $1.53 million dollar net difference, not 3.98 Million.

 

If Buffalo could find an additional $3.5 million to sign McKissic or Howard on top of the $2.43 million ROFR tender to Bates, how could it not find the $1.5 million to offer a second round tender in the first place? That makes no sense. They found $3.5 million more already. 1.53 < 3.5 and you either keep a starter on OL or get a second rounder.

 

In that case, Buffalo misses out on McKissic or Howard, oh well. I feel like the Howard signing was nothing more than an ego recovery move after McKissic duped OBD and resigned with Washington. Protecting my franchise QB for 480k more is more important to me than protecting my ego. I bet I can name 2 TEs in rounds 3-5 that will match or outproduce Howard next year and the year after. 14-135-1 is not that hard to beat. He will be lucky to get 30-300-2 next year. Bank it.

 

I would rather protect my $250 million QB with a known starting OG (and backup C) than pay a TE2 almost the same money and 'hope' he beats the Achilles odds. Seems worth the 2nd round tender to me. But what do I know?

 

Maybe we roll into 2022 with Ford at RG and Saffold at LG... But hey we got OJ Howard.

[pennstate10]

1 hour ago, Paul Costa said:

💯

You need to apply for Beane’s job. Pegula will give you special consideration your White & a Penn State Grad 👍

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

This is a big deal. Need to keep Bates or we end up w/ a huge hole on the O-line. We've let a lot of guys walk this off-season. (Only guys I think we've resigned McKenzie, Neal, Kumerow). Needed to go w/ the higher tender. 

 

Bates was the key in getting the run game going late last year. Once he entered the starting lineup, the run game started performing much better. 

 

I don't think he is going to get a huge contract from the Vikings but if he does, the Bills will be hard pressed to match it. Hopefully they can retain him.

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Great info on Achilles injuries. I did note that the last good medical journal I had access to so far ended in 2016. As I stated at least 30% of players are out of the NFL after their second year after an Achilles tear, nothing posted above disproves that.

 

I believe Bates is a top 30-40 OG in the NFL. There are 64, he is in or near the top half IMO.

 

You asked:

"The cap is fluid, but Minnesota currently has <$2M of cap space.  Question: do you believe Bates is the type of player you rearrange your cap and kick the can down the road for, to create a "poison pill" contract?"

 

Let's be honest, you are kind of mixing up Minnesota's cap situation with Buffalo's strategy in that question. I believe signing a proven guard, and backup center for $3.9 million to protect JA is worth it. Maybe you don't. The Guard play I saw from games and reviewed in videos at the end of the season (see videos) from Bates is worth $3.98 million if unmatched. The net difference between the ROFR tender the Bills placed, and a 'poison pill' for a second round tender was only $1.5 million. Penny wise, pound foolish.

 

This was a strategic miss.

 

Let's look at Minnesota offering Bates a 3 yr/$15M contract (not a crazy amount)

 

ROFR (Tendered by Buffalo):

If I am Minnesota, do I make cap arrangements to offer Bates 3yrs/ $15 million and no draft pick penalty for doing so? Heck 2/$8M might do the trick. Yes I do. Easy question. Force Buffalo to make another cut or restructure to keep him. Buffalo already cut/ restructured for Von Miller and others. They even dumped Beasley already. Who would be next?

 

2nd Round Tender: (1.5 million more, the path I would have preferred)

If I am Minnesota, do I make cap arrangements to offer Bates 2ys/$8M or 3yrs/ $15 million and have to give up my second round pick? No I probably do not. The cost of having to give up my 2nd round pick to Buffalo (46th pick in Minnesota's case), on top of the contract will heavily dissuade me from that signing even if the money is right. Minnesota may even want to offer Bates 3yrs/18M or 4yr/20M, but that 46th pick may be worth more than the cap adjustments and risk.

 

That is the poison pill. It is worth $1.5 million IMO.

 

Let's say in this situation, Minnesota does offer 2/$8M, 3/$15M or 4/$20M and the 2nd. Buffalo can not match, but at least they receive Minnesota's pick #46 to offset the loss. One can find some really good IOL around there. Creed Humphrey went later than that. In that case pair a 2nd and 1st and move up for a stud CB and still have a 2nd for a WR or OG/C. The options are endless.

 

As for Buffalo, there is no need to 'rearrange your cap' by having the $3.98M 2nd round tender in place instead of the ROFR. Buffalo already put a $2.43 million tender on Bates. It is a $1.53 million dollar net difference, not 3.98 Million.

 

If Buffalo could find an additional $3.5 million to sign McKissic or Howard on top of the $2.43 million ROFR tender to Bates, how could it not find the $1.5 million to offer a second round tender in the first place? That makes no sense. They found $3.5 million more already. 1.53 < 3.5 and you either keep a starter on OL or get a second rounder.

 

In that case, Buffalo misses out on McKissic or Howard, oh well. I feel like the Howard signing was nothing more than an ego recovery move after McKissic duped OBD and resigned with Washington. Protecting my franchise QB for 480k more is more important to me than protecting my ego. I bet I can name 2 TEs in rounds 3-5 that will match or outproduce Howard next year and the year after. 14-135-1 is not that hard to beat. He will be lucky to get 30-300-2 next year. Bank it.

 

I would rather protect my $250 million QB with a known starting OG (and backup C) than pay a TE2 almost the same money and 'hope' he beats the Achilles odds. Seems worth the 2nd round tender to me. But what do I know?

 

Maybe we roll into 2022 with Ford at RG and Saffold at LG... But hey we got OJ Howard.

 

OJ Howard creates mismatches on the field and causes problems for the defense with him and Knox both athletic mismatches for defenses. 

 

This has a trickle down effect for everyone else...he might not put up huge numbers but he will help create space and opportunities for others. 

 

It's hard to really just look at stats with this team since they have a lot of players that are going to get the ball and they spread it around.