Gunner's 2022 Mock Draft (v3 and FINAL - p.17!!)

[starrymessenger]

7 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Did they ever say the extent of the ACL injury? Was it a total tear? 

Haven’t seen a partial reported. I assume a total tear. His prognosis is 100% recovery however.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

15 hours ago, Magox said:

For me Jameson Williams would be a dream pick.   I honestly believe to go along with Diggs, Davis, Beasley and Knox would complete the receiving corps.  Jameson would be our X factor and it’s possible he could replace the role that McKenzie played with the Bills.

 

That over the top threat would open up more passing plays as safeties would have to always keep tabs of what Jameson would be doing.   
 

I strongly am pulling for a playmaking WR with the first pick.  I believe there will be some to be had.

 

If Jameson is still available at around the 20-22 pick the Bills should consider trading up a few picks to secure him.   I believe Jameson could end up making the Bills the most potent offense in the league.   
 

And with either the 2nd or 3rd pick the Bills should look to draft a shifty, speedy receiving RB.  Not a cowbell type but a receiving and change of pace specialist.

 

And to complete my offensive wishlist, the Bills should look to get either via FA or draft a decent receiving threat who can block at a high level.   Those aren’t easy to come by but the 12 formation I think could be a really potent one if we can have that 2nd TE at least be a decent threat on the receiving end.

 

Invest in the offense more so than the defense.    

How about we just sign Will Fuller and Rashard Penny in free agency for cheap and then use the draft on defense and Oline?

[The Wiz]

This is a great thread but I'm more interested in the 2922 mock draft. 

 

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 1/30/2022 at 7:54 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

6 – Carolina Panthers – Charles Cross, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Carolina’s biggest need is obviously Quarterback. I suspect they are going to try again for Deshaun Watson depending on his status by March because Rhule needs to win in 2022 and trusting a rookie Quarterback would be scary. But after that it is offensive line. Here is a start for you and for @BillfromNYC in particular…. The Panthers have drafted THREE first round running backs since they last spent a first round pick on the offensive line (2003). That surely has to change because that unit is a liability. Cross is my #1 offensive tackle and I think he is a guy you plug and play for a decade on the blindside.

 

 

First of all, thanks for posting this. Posts are like this are what makes TSW such a good place in the offseason!

 

I found the stat that you posted about Carolina so intriguing that I took a closer look.....

 

Since 2003, they did not have a first round pick in 2 of the seasons. And you are correct, from 2004 until now they did not draft any offensive linemen in round 1. They did draft 3 CBs (not too bad lol).  They also drafted no less than 4 LBs and 3 DTs. They drafted 2 wrs but one of them was Kelvin Benjamin. In other words, their drafts are historically stupid.

 

My only other comment is that I am all but 100% certain that Jax will draft an OT, specifically Evan Neal. Cam Robinson is a nice player (and a bit of a head case) at LT but he is a UFA. I don't know if Jax wants him or if he wants to stay but even if he stays, I think that they will draft an OT to protect Trevor Lawrence, who is going to be great imo.  If I was Lawrence and they drafted a DE with the 1st pick, I would be pissed off and hold it against the franchise in terms of staying there or leaving as a UFA when possible. 

 

Jmo and thanks again!

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[Jim Bob]

If they can get a potential offensive gamechanger late in the 1st, I think they have to take that guy.

 

Getting locked into any one or two positions is not great. While QB is off the board, passing a WR who falls due to an injury for an edge rusher or CB would not be smart.

 

The Bills had two former 1st rounders in the their starting offense this season. Taking an offensive playmaker (or even an OL) would not be a bad idea.

[Jim Bob]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32987864/rb-jerome-ford-leader-example-leaves-cincinnati-football-program-enter-nfl-draft

 

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/jared-bernhardt-football-and-lacrosse-national-champion-he-s-so-extraordinary-/58726

 

And when it comes to adding later round and maybe UDFA offensive weapons, two of my favorite ideas are RB Jerome Ford from Cincinnati and Ferris St QB Jared Bernhardt.

 

Ford started his college career at Alabama before transferring to Cincinnati. He will be one of the fastest RBs in this draft class and could add an element that the Bills don't have.

 

Bernhardt likely won't get drafted until the last couple of rounds, or he could go completely undrafted. He only played one year of college football after being the best player in college lacrosse two years ago. He was an option QB at DII champion Ferris State and he could be a Chris Hogan-esque athlete (Hogan played lacrosse at Penn State before playing football at Monmouth. With Beasley nearing the end and the Bills needing some YAC WRs in the mix, Bernhardt is a guy that will be a late round or UDFA roll of the dice. But, I think he would be a really intriguing option for the Bills.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Jim Bob

[mannc]

God I’d love to see Treylon Burks in a Bills uniform next year, somehow. Huge problem for opposing defenses.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

This is a great thread but I'm more interested in the 2922 mock draft. 

 

 

 

 

Still working on that one. But as a spoiler.... the Jets will need a Quarterback.

[Bill from NYC]

25 minutes ago, Jim Bob said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32987864/rb-jerome-ford-leader-example-leaves-cincinnati-football-program-enter-nfl-draft

 

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/jared-bernhardt-football-and-lacrosse-national-champion-he-s-so-extraordinary-/58726

 

And when it comes to adding later round and maybe UDFA offensive weapons, two of my favorite ideas are RB Jerome Ford from Cincinnati and Ferris St QB Jared Bernhardt.

 

Ford started his college career at Alabama before transferring to Cincinnati. He will be one of the fastest RBs in this draft class and could add an element that the Bills don't have.

 

Bernhardt likely won't get drafted until the last couple of rounds, or he could go completely undrafted. He only played one year of college football after being the best player in college lacrosse two years ago. He was an option QB at DII champion Ferris State and he could be a Chris Hogan-esque athlete (Hogan played lacrosse at Penn State before playing football at Monmouth. With Beasley nearing the end and the Bills needing some YAC WRs in the mix, Bernhardt is a guy that will be a late round or UDFA roll of the dice. But, I think he would be a really intriguing option for the Bills.

Careful with Ford. The risk with him is the weak competetion that he faced at Cincinnati. At Alabama he was 4th or 5th string and barely saw any playing time.

 

I am not saying that he isn't somewhat talented. I do not however think that he is worthy of a day 1 pick.

 

Jmo.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Careful with Ford. The risk with him is the weak competetion that he faced at Cincinnati. At Alabama he was 4th or 5th string and barely saw any playing time.

 

I am not saying that he isn't somewhat talented. I do not however think that he is worthy of a day 1 pick.

 

Jmo.

 

 

 

There isn't a back in this class worthy of 1st round consideration IMO. 

[Southern_Bills]

On 1/30/2022 at 7:15 AM, Roy Hobbs said:

What do you think about Pickett to the Falcons @ 8 ? Ryan will be 37 this year and their current backups are not the answer. 

 

If QB talent was better this year they might. 

[Bill from NYC]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There isn't a back in this class worthy of 1st round consideration IMO. 

I completely agree.

 

[Jim Bob]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Careful with Ford. The risk with him is the weak competetion that he faced at Cincinnati. At Alabama he was 4th or 5th string and barely saw any playing time.

 

I am not saying that he isn't somewhat talented. I do not however think that he is worthy of a day 1 pick.

 

Jmo.

 

 

 

He is likely a mid-round guy. I wouldn't take any RB in the 1st or 2nd round for this team.

 

And my post talked about how those two were later round to UDFA guys.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Jim Bob

[Cray51]

@GunnerBill what are your thoughts on David Bell out of Purdue.  Not the sexy first rounder WR that people may want, but he just seems to be so productive, and I think he beats man coverage better than most in the class.  Decent size (6'2) and should run around a 4.48/4.52 at the combine - so not terribly slow.

 

I would love him as a 2nd rounder if we go another route in the 1st, but always appreciate your take on players.

[Reed83HOF]

If we can get him, swing for the fences

[buffaloaggie]

On 1/31/2022 at 6:48 AM, mannc said:

God I’d love to see Treylon Burks in a Bills uniform next year, somehow. Huge problem for opposing defenses.

Burks was dominant in every Arkansas game that I saw. He is a future NFL stud. 10 1/4" hands. I doubt you'll see drops from him 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said:

Burks was dominant in every Arkansas game that I saw. He is a future NFL stud. 10 1/4" hands. I doubt you'll see drops from him 

Unfortunately, I doubt you’ll see him drop to the 25th pick either….

[buffaloaggie]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Unfortunately, I doubt you’ll see him drop to the 25th pick either….

It'd be a shock. I have no use for Williams. He was the best Alabama had, but non-contact injuries scare me, and it's not a need for the Bills. We need to draft a CB, OL, DL or LB in the first. Elam would be a nice player to have fall to 25.

[Jim Bob]

 

That is one large human being.

[ScorpionZero]

25.Chris Olave WR,

diggs clone

 

57. John Metchie III WR,

Replaces Sanders, maybe somebody Josh can't over throw

 

89. Breece Hall RB,

big boy, with some long speed

 

126. Tyrese RobinsonI OL,

grinder in the ditches

 

166. Jack Jones CB,

inside/outside corner

 

184. Isaac Taylor-Stuart CB, 

needs work, but has all the tools

 

202. Chris Owens IOL,

another grinder/developmental center

 

227. Juanyeh Thomas S,

developmental prospect, safety/big nickel/special teams

 

242. Glen Logan IDL,

space eater

 

This is how the draft fell to me, had linderbaum in first I could've picked but went with Olave. More bang for the buck. After that I just looked for balance between rating and talent. The bills are at a place where they're projecting what the player is going to be and develop them as replacements to keep this train rolling along.

 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I think the Pittsburgh Steelers will strongly consider an ILB also. They to have gone to more of a 4-3 lately, they don't have that one big NT anymore to play the 3-4. When they're in the nickel the lb's don't cover well and they're not great against the run. Bush has been a disappointment, Schobert was brought in via trade (they needed someone) then got hurt and Spillane is barely replacement level. If there's a guy that has some size, can play the run ok and cover ok they may pull the trigger on him.

[Golden]

On 1/30/2022 at 9:06 PM, LyndonvilleBill said:

Or he could have been talking about our secondary.🤔

Really good thought 👍

[ScorpionZero]

Fanspeak OTC

 

25: R1 P25 CB Roger McCreary - Auburn. He was there so I grabbed him. Olave and leal were there to

 

57: R2 P25 RB Kenneth Walker III - Michigan State. He's the mix of Zach and Devin

 

89: R3 P25 G Jamaree Salyer - Georgia.

Team needs, he was there.

 

127: R4 P25 CB Cam Taylor-Britt - Nebraska. Good get at 127.

 

167: R5 P25 RB Brian Robinson - Alabama. I know, I know, but he was there.

185: R6 P6 WR Christian Watson - North Dakota State. Has size/developmental

 

203: R6 P24 G Justin Shaffer - Georgia

Big strong boy

 

229: R7 P10 DL Otito Ogbonnia - UCLA

Space eater 1 tech

 

244: R7 P25 P Jake Carmarda - Georgia

You called for a punter, here's his stats

Punts.                AVG.                 TOTAL

43                   42.663                 1,830

61                    46.867                 2,857

36                   46.664                 1,677

47                   46.768                  2,197

 

[Golden]

1 hour ago, ScorpionZero said:

25.Chris Olave WR,

diggs clone

 

57. John Metchie III WR,

Replaces Sanders, maybe somebody Josh can't over throw

 

89. Breece Hall RB,

big boy, with some long speed

 

126. Tyrese RobinsonI OL,

grinder in the ditches

 

166. Jack Jones CB,

inside/outside corner

 

184. Isaac Taylor-Stuart CB, 

needs work, but has all the tools

 

202. Chris Owens IOL,

another grinder/developmental center

 

227. Juanyeh Thomas S,

developmental prospect, safety/big nickel/special teams

 

242. Glen Logan IDL,

space eater

 

This is how the draft fell to me, had linderbaum in first I could've picked but went with Olave. More bang for the buck. After that I just looked for balance between rating and talent. The bills are at a place where they're projecting what the player is going to be and develop them as replacements to keep this train rolling along.

 

Breece Hall; 6 foot 1 inch 220 pounds with 4.39 speed 

[ScorpionZero]

This one from first pick is alright, player ratings are off IMO.

 

Round 1 Pick 26: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College (B+)
Round 2 Pick 26: Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama (A+)
Round 3 Pick 26: Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M (A+)
Round 4 Pick 26: Cam Taylor-Britt, CB, Nebraska (A+)
Round 5 Pick 26: Chris Paul, OG, Tulsa (A+)
Round 6 Pick 6: John Ridgeway, DT, Arkansas (A+)
Round 6 Pick 25: Dareke Young, WR, Lenoir-Rhyne (A+)
Round 7 Pick 10: Ali Gaye, DE/OLB, LSU (A+)
Round 7 Pick 26: Jordan Stout, P, Penn State (A+)
 

[GunnerBill]

On 1/30/2022 at 12:54 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

31 – Detroit Lions – Jaquan Brisker, Safety, Penn State

This is a spot where the Lions could absolutely take a swing at a Quarterback. If they do I’d look for a toolsy developmental guy either Willis or Desmond Ridder to come and sit for a year behind Jared Goff. However, because none of this class really pops to me and because Goff played well down the stretch (70% completion, 11 TDs and 2 INTs in his final 5 games) I have them going in a different direction. Their secondary has been a problem for a number of years under consecutive coaching staffs and their safety play in particular was atrocious in 2021. Jaquan Brisker and Jordan Battle are the second tier of safeties in this class, but I think Brisker is the superior coverage player and so I have gone with him here.

 

 

 

 

Good job I didn't give them Battle, just learned he has announced he is staying in school. Apologies for not picking that up sooner!

[No_Matter_What]

On 1/30/2022 at 1:54 PM, GunnerBill said:

29 – Miami Dolphins – Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Stop me if you have heard this before… but Miami needs receivers and offensive linemen, despite a lot of investment in both spots in recent years. Jaylon Waddle was a major hit as a rookie but Will Fuller as a one year rental did not work out, Preston Williams can’t stay healthy and Devante Parker is a possible cap casualty. With Tua as your Quarterback you need YAC guys and so Garrett Wilson out of Ohio State feels like a fit.

 

I'll stop you right there. Dolphins are not picking in the first round this year.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

I'll stop you right there. Dolphins are not picking in the first round this year.

 

They are. The have the 49ers pick. 

[TPS]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are. The have the 49ers pick. 

Maybe he's suggesting repercussions for Ross telling Flores to lose games...?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

Maybe he's suggesting repercussions for Ross telling Flores to lose games...?

 

Ah, got ya. Sorry, I'm a bit slow today. 

[aristocrat]

Gimme some Chris olave and he’s our slot guy for years. 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

Gimme some Chris olave and he’s our slot guy for years. 

 

I think Olave can play the slot, he can play outside. He is to me the closest to a Tyreek Hill type that there is in this class. Hill the past 2 years has been almost exactly 50:50 in the slot and outside. I think you use Olave that same way. Teams want to play off on his because if not Josh can hit him over the top but then he can break what looks like a vertical route off and streak across the field in that intermediate zone. Certainly of the likely early round guys I have watched so far he is the most advanced route runner. I do think the 40 time matters for Olave's draft stock though. A lot of folks think he is going to run a 4.3 and if he does he is a first round lock and probably a top 20 player. If he slips into the 4.4s though I wouldn't be stunned for him to slide to the Bills and even past them into the top of day 2. 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

Maybe he's suggesting repercussions for Ross telling Flores to lose games...?

 

Or trading for Watson.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Olave can play the slot, he can play outside. He is to me the closest to a Tyreek Hill type that there is in this class. Hill the past 2 years has been almost exactly 50:50 in the slot and outside. I think you use Olave that same way. Teams want to play off on his because if not Josh can hit him over the top but then he can break what looks like a vertical route off and streak across the field in that intermediate zone. Certainly of the likely early round guys I have watched so far he is the most advanced route runner. I do think the 40 time matters for Olave's draft stock though. A lot of folks think he is going to run a 4.3 and if he does he is a first round lock and probably a top 20 player. If he slips into the 4.4s though I wouldn't be stunned for him to slide to the Bills and even past them into the top of day 2. 

 

I have to admit I have never understood this logic. Is it something what you'd consider, or you do assume that NFL teams consider it?

 

Anyway, can somebody explain me why does it matter at all if someone runs 4.40 or 4.30? I mean there are years of tape on each prospect, why is it relevant how fast someone runs in specific conditions? Everybody can see on the tape how fast someone runs on the field, if he can outrun defenders, creat separation, catch the ball, etc.

 

I am not saying it has no merits I just don't understand it.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

I have to admit I have never understood this logic. Is it something what you'd consider, or you do assume that NFL teams consider it?

 

Anyway, can somebody explain me why does it matter at all if someone runs 4.40 or 4.30? I mean there are years of tape on each prospect, why is it relevant how fast someone runs in specific conditions? Everybody can see on the tape how fast someone runs on the field, if he can outrun defenders, creat separation, catch the ball, etc.

 

I am not saying it has no merits I just don't understand it.

 

Oh NFL teams absolutely consider it. Some more than others but yes, it matters. The reason I think it matters for receivers (more than most other positions) is because the hardest thing to maintain in the NFL at that spot is your ability to separate. If someone runs in the 4.3s they are going to have the chance to win with speed even if other things they found easy in college are harder in the NFL. It is why my golden rule is if you are not seeing much separation on tape in college that should be a red flag. If you are making your college cash as a contested catch guy that is gonna be a hard living to maintain in the pros. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh NFL teams absolutely consider it. Some more than others but yes, it matters. The reason I think it matters for receivers (more than most other positions) is because the hardest thing to maintain in the NFL at that spot is your ability to separate. If someone runs in the 4.3s they are going to have the chance to win with speed even if other things they found easy in college are harder in the NFL. It is why my golden rule is if you are not seeing much separation on tape in college that should be a red flag. If you are making your college cash as a contested catch guy that is gonna be a hard living to maintain in the pros. 

Since I'm an UGA fan, I'm curious where you think George Pickens is likely to land in terms of draft round. I can never seem to find objectivity when it comes to a fella I liked in college, but I think he can be a solid pro.

[Estro]

Jameson Williams would be a dream to drop into this offense. That said the early chatter @ the Senior Bowl, according to Tony Pauline, is that Williams and Wilson are the early favorites to be the 1st WRs taken in the draft. 

 

I know Williams tore his ACL last month, but I actually dont think it's going to hurt his draft stock that much, with how quick players recover from ACLs.  His speed is intoxicating.

 

I think Williams will be off the board much earlier than Bills fans are wishing.

Edited February 2, 2022 by Estro

[SoMAn]

I haven't gotten past page 2, but that was enough to see there's a lot of support for the projected WR pick.  I don't expect he'd contribute much in 2022, unless maybe towards the end of the season.  Even then, after missing all of training camp and valuable reps, there's no guarantee he'd have any impact or be on the active roster.

 

The Bills should be preparing to compete for a super bowl again in 2022. 

Personally, I'd rather they find a player who can contribute immediately (cornerback?) or on the O-line so they can protect the quarter billion-dollar investment. 

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by SoMAn

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, Estro said:

Jameson Williams would be a dream to drop into this offense. That said the early chatter @ the Senior Bowl, according to Tony Pauline, is that Williams and Wilson are the early favorites to be the 1st WRs taken in the draft. 

 

I know Williams tore his ACL last month, but I actually dont think it's going to hurt his draft stock that much, with how quick players recover from ACLs.  His speed is intoxicating.

 

I think Williams will be off the board much earlier than Bills fans are wishing.

 

I genuinely was not trying to make Williams fall. I think it is hard finding wide receiver teams in the top 20. When you really look at it:

 

1 Jags - yes it is a need but there is not a receiver worthy of the #1 pick

2 Lions - yes it is a need but not as big as edge rusher and there are two staring them in the face

3 Texans - possible need but still not sure there is a guy worth the #3 pick and their defense needs more work

4 & 10 - Jets - major needs at OL and CB

5 & 7 - Giants - major needs at OL and CB... it is possible they could go receiver at #7 but not sure it is likely

6 Panthers - not a need

8 Falcons are a sneaky WR need team. This is the first real possibility but again think they need defense more

9 Broncos - not a need

11 Commanders - possible need if they don't go QB

12 Vikings - not a need

13 Browns - definitely a possible WR team, it is WR or Edge rusher IMO

14 Ravens - not a need

15, 16 & 19 - Eagles surely not going to pick a WR in round 1 for a third year running they need trench help

17 Chargers - not a need unless Williams walks they have 3 good ones

18 Saints - definitely a possible WR team but they have needs everywhere but secondary

20 Patriots - definitely a possible WR team

 

I just don't see the receivers flying off the board early. I have Williams as the 3rd guy off the board with Olave and Burks ahead of him. What order these receivers go is really difficult to predict. However, with the greatest respect to Tony Pauline - I see less than 10% chance that Garret Wilson is the first receiver off the board. People are going to look at Olave's route running, Burks's RAC ability, Williams's speed and London's size and hands and see special. When they look at Wilson what special are they seeing? I know it only takes one team to fall in love but I'd be amazed. 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Since I'm an UGA fan, I'm curious where you think George Pickens is likely to land in terms of draft round. I can never seem to find objectivity when it comes to a fella I liked in college, but I think he can be a solid pro.

 

Personally I think he is a 2nd rounder. I wouldn't be stunned if he crept into the back of round 1. But I'd expect first half of round 2 more likely. One of those teams - Jags, Lions, Texans, Jets, Giants - who need a receiver but for whom the value doesn't make sense in the top 5 given their other needs at corner and tackle and the superior prospects at those spots.... they could be a very interesting landing spots. All the raw physical talent is there. Think you want to see a bit more nuance from him - tidy up his route running, improve his get off, learn to feel the play and when to adjust the route in his head. The Texans where Brandin Cooks would stay as their #1 target and you could ease him in as the #2 as a rookie and develop him would make a lot of sense to me.