Week 12: Bills at Saints on Thanksgiving

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Stevenson 👀

IR players don’t travel to road games. Stevenson Kick returner. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Mat68

[FilthyBeast]

8 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

So the Saints are without Kamara and Ingham so maybe Taysom Hill starts at rb lol?

 

He's the exact type of player that can give a reeling team like the Saints a spark and an equally struggling team like the Bills big problems.

 

I expect to see him on the field quite a bit tomorrow possibly even starting at QB.

[YoloinOhio]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

In DVOA they're 5th, in weighted DVOA (more recent games are weighed more heavily) they're 6th. And they have the exact type of defense that has given us trouble, a defense built around a strong pass rush. Very well coached too. Sean Payton isn't going to rewrite the script. They're going to come out rushing four and dropping everyone else into cover 2. The Bills have to prove they can beat that script. Until they do I'm not assuming anything.

I wasn’t dissing the saints D. I was mentioning the Jags isn’t that bad I guess. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

He's the exact type of player that can give a reeling team like the Saints a spark and an equally struggling team like the Bills big problems.

 

I expect to see him on the field quite a bit tomorrow possibly even starting at QB.

You think Taysom Hill is exactly the kind of player that the Bills defense will struggle against? 

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

You think Taysom Hill is exactly the kind of player that the Bills defense will struggle against? 

Not if they put 8 or 9 in the box and make him throw.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

37 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Hope the number of touches is much higher though. 14 to 7 at minimum. All four of the Bills losses the RB's + Gilliam  have combined for 20 or less total touches. 20, 18, 18 and 15 touches. Those are the four lowest totals on the season. In the six wins they are totaling 27, 28, 31, 21, 22 and 21 touches. 

Should be 15-20 touches for Singletary 5-10 Brieda 0 Moss

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Should be 15-20 touches for Singletary 5-10 Brieda 0 Moss

 

I think I agree with this. Singletary has been much more effective than Moss. And we shouldn't just assume Brieda will be effective with an increased work load. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

30 carries between the two? No thanks…. I understand they need to run the ball more. But forcing the run series after series if it’s not working and taking the ball out of Allen’s hands is not a good plan.

We can either start to play with Balance or we can continue to slide. I understand people won’t agree with it. I’m not going to back down from where I stand. Not using an entire dimension of our offense WILL sink us. And it’s touches. Not carries. Throw the ball to them as well. Our offense has been figured out since the Colts playoff game. It’s long been time to change 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Brianmoorman4jesus

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

We can either start to play with Balance or we can continue to slide. I understand people won’t agree with it. I’m not going to back down from where I stand. Not using an entire dimension of our offense WILL sink us. And it’s touched. Not carries. Throw the ball to them as well. Our offense has been figured out since the Colts playoff game. It’s long been time to change 

I'm also worried about the offense but this is one of the dumbest things i've read on here in awhile... The bills average over 30ppg and had only one game all season under 26pts scored coming into last week. 

 

Dramatic much????

[transplantbillsfan]

21 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Should be 15-20 touches for Singletary 5-10 Brieda 0 Moss

 

 

Just about everyone is coming around to the "Moss sucks" boat. I'm exaggerating of course... he doesn't absolutely suck, but he's not remotely worthy of being a featured back and probably shouldn't be part of any 1-2 punch."

 

https://theathletic.com/2975761/2021/11/24/will-the-bills-make-zack-moss-a-healthy-scratch-5-thoughts-and-a-prediction-for-the-thanksgiving-game/

3. Why a Zack Moss healthy scratch makes sense this week

The Bills saw a significant boost to their rushing game last week when Matt Breida was on the field. His strengths as a runner and the strengths of the offensive line mesh well, and the Bills are at the point of the season where they can’t ignore production. The most important factor is that Breida has done enough to deserve more opportunities on offense. However, something has to give from a game-day roster standpoint. If Breida is taking more snaps on offense, the Bills should lighten his load as a special-teams player, where he played on 77 percent of core-four special-teams units. Those special-teams snaps likely aren’t going to second-year runner Zack Moss, who hasn’t taken a core-four snap the entire season.

 

Considering Moss’ lack of special-teams ability, his current struggles with decisiveness as a rusher and the Saints’ stout run defense between the tackles, making Moss a healthy scratch this week makes a lot of sense. It wouldn’t be completely giving up on Moss, but the Bills are past the point of waiting for production and need to maximize the running game. They’ve found some success with the pin-and-pull blocking that suits Breida and Devin Singletary more than Moss. If Moss is a healthy scratch, he’ll likely get another opportunity in the not-so-distant future.

 

Man I hope Daboll and McDermott agree

 

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I'm also worried about the offense but this is one of the dumbest things i've read on here in awhile... The bills average over 30ppg and had only one game all season under 26pts scored coming into last week. 

 

Dramatic much????

There is a lot to that and if you want me to go through each of the games I’m talking about I can. It’s nowhere near dumb. Thinking our offense isn’t struggling is incredibly short sighted. This team struggled for on offense in at least 2/3 playoff games. Then had issues against Pit, Jacksonville, Indy, Miami in the 2nd game. There are issues here. Those averages get skewed by the destruction of some terrible teams. There is still production but it’s not running as smooth as it was for the majority of last season. There are issues here. Since the bye our offense has struggled. It was strong in the 2nd half of the Jet game and other then that, has been not clicking. This offense is 1 dimensional. Not every team is capable of making us pay for that. The ones that are, can give us fits. The time to adjust is now. While there is still a season to save.

 

And what you said isn’t even true. Week 1 they didn’t score 26. They scored 6 against the jags. And did nothing last week

Edited November 24, 2021 by Brianmoorman4jesus

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

30 carries between the two? No thanks…. I understand they need to run the ball more. But forcing the run series after series if it’s not working and taking the ball out of Allen’s hands is not a good plan.

 

If the Bills are up two scores in the fourth they are going to run the ball more. In their blow out victories early in the year they hit 27, 28 and 31 touches. I think 30 touches means the Bills are up big. Under 20 touches has been a disaster for the offense. They were the offenses three worst games of the year. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Just about everyone is coming around to the "Moss sucks" boat. I'm exaggerating of course... he doesn't absolutely suck, but he's not remotely worthy of being a featured back and probably shouldn't be part of any 1-2 punch."

 

https://theathletic.com/2975761/2021/11/24/will-the-bills-make-zack-moss-a-healthy-scratch-5-thoughts-and-a-prediction-for-the-thanksgiving-game/

3. Why a Zack Moss healthy scratch makes sense this week

The Bills saw a significant boost to their rushing game last week when Matt Breida was on the field. His strengths as a runner and the strengths of the offensive line mesh well, and the Bills are at the point of the season where they can’t ignore production. The most important factor is that Breida has done enough to deserve more opportunities on offense. However, something has to give from a game-day roster standpoint. If Breida is taking more snaps on offense, the Bills should lighten his load as a special-teams player, where he played on 77 percent of core-four special-teams units. Those special-teams snaps likely aren’t going to second-year runner Zack Moss, who hasn’t taken a core-four snap the entire season.

 

Considering Moss’ lack of special-teams ability, his current struggles with decisiveness as a rusher and the Saints’ stout run defense between the tackles, making Moss a healthy scratch this week makes a lot of sense. It wouldn’t be completely giving up on Moss, but the Bills are past the point of waiting for production and need to maximize the running game. They’ve found some success with the pin-and-pull blocking that suits Breida and Devin Singletary more than Moss. If Moss is a healthy scratch, he’ll likely get another opportunity in the not-so-distant future.

 

Man I hope Daboll and McDermott agree

 

 

I was in on Moss and starting to maybe even shift to wanting him to be the 1, but lately he looks super slow and I just have no reason to see him touch the ball again. Singletary was my favorite player in his rookie year and last year he really disappointed me…but he’s the best guy we have. The constant RB rotation is asinine. Stop bringing in a guy that is just killing our momentum. Pick a guy and let him get into the flow of the game. And that guy needs to be 26. If it’s Brieda I could live with it because I don’t know what he will do. But no more Moss. Just no more.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I was in on Moss and starting to maybe even shift to wanting him to be the 1, but lately he looks super slow and I just have no reason to see him touch the ball again. Singletary was my favorite player in his rookie year and last year he really disappointed me…but he’s the best guy we have. The constant RB rotation is asinine. Stop bringing in a guy that is just killing our momentum. Pick a guy and let him get into the flow of the game. And that guy needs to be 26. If it’s Brieda I could live with it because I don’t know what he will do. But no more Moss. Just no more.

I hear you, but he is a legit good pass blocker. That may seem like a secondary task, but having a matador RB in on pass protect can lead to some very bad outcomes. The RB's primary job is to move the ball forward as far as possible when it's in his hands, but with a shaky o-line that last line of defense can become very important (especially for pass heavy teams like the Bills). I don't know how good of a blocker Breida is. He was on the field a lot for a very good pass protect team in 2018 (SF), for what it's worth, but I don't know anything more than that. At the end of the day, though, the dude has 4.38 speed and needs to be on the field. 

[Stank_Nasty]

18 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There is a lot to that and if you want me to go through each of the games I’m talking about I can. It’s nowhere near dumb. Thinking our offense isn’t struggling is incredibly short sighted. This team struggled for on offense in at least 2/3 playoff games. Then had issues against Pit, Jacksonville, Indy, Miami in the 2nd game. There are issues here. Those averages get skewed by the destruction of some terrible teams. There is still production but it’s not running as smooth as it was for the majority of last season. There are issues here. Since the bye our offense has struggled. It was strong in the 2nd half of the Jet game and other then that, has been not clicking. This offense is 1 dimensional. Not every team is capable of making us pay for that. The ones that are, can give us fits. The time to adjust is now. While there is still a season to save.

 

And what you said isn’t even true. Week 1 they didn’t score 26. They scored 6 against the jags. And did nothing last week

Ah yes. i did forget about the Steeler game. And i said in my initial response to you that i've begun to worry about the offense. Not sure how that equates to me being short sighted but whatever. The bills scored 30+ on the top 2 seeds in the AFC heading into week 11. Lets not just pretend they only moved the ball on scrap heaps.

[HappyDays]

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I hear you, but he is a legit good pass blocker. That may seem like a secondary task, but having a matador RB in on pass protect can lead to some very bad outcomes. The RB's primary job is to move the ball forward as far as possible when it's in his hands, but with a shaky o-line that last line of defense can become very important (especially for pass heavy teams like the Bills). I don't know how good of a blocker Breida is. He was on the field a lot for a very good pass protect team in 2018 (SF), for what it's worth, but I don't know anything more than that. At the end of the day, though, the dude has 4.38 speed and needs to be on the field. 

IMO, Singletary doesn’t scare me anymore in pass protection. I feel like it’s to the point where it’s not enough reason to get Moss on the field. 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

IMO, Singletary doesn’t scare me anymore in pass protection. I feel like it’s to the point where it’s not enough reason to get Moss on the field. 

I'm thinking more of Breida vs. Moss, but point taken.

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Bills really have no excuses for not winning by at least two scores. This is a total mismatch on paper. 

[BillsfaninSB]

I might have missed it but do we know the Bills uni yet?

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm thinking more of Breida vs. Moss, but point taken.

I want to see this team just give the main RB role to Singletary. He’s earned that. Then spell him with Brieda. Nice Brieda around a little, throw it to him. Maybe use them both at the same time in situations. Just stop with the Moss. Go 80/20 26-22.

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, BillsfaninSB said:

I might have missed it but do we know the Bills uni yet?

Blue on blue

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

3 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

I might have missed it but do we know the Bills uni yet?

All blue

[fathersnowman]

this is a all nighter for me game starts at 1.20 am uk time. this as to get better, no more excuses  from allen and team.

early season form easy win, now would take a confidence win , then ready for pats...

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't know how good of a blocker Breida is.

 

Not his best attribute but he appeared capable on Sunday.

 

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I want to see this team just give the main RB role to Singletary. He’s earned that. Then spell him with Brieda. Nice Brieda around a little, throw it to him. Maybe use them both at the same time in situations. Just stop with the Moss. Go 80/20 26-22.

I'd like to see more Breida, honestly - more like 50/50. If you look at their career production through their first three seasons, it's pretty similar. Singletary in 38 games has 1877 yards at 4.8 ypc and 92 receptions for 577 yards (6.3 yards per reception). In his three seasons with the 49ers (42 games), Breida had 1902 yards at 5.0 ypc and 64 receptions for 561 yards (8.4 yards per reception).

 

Point is, he has carried a similar load in the very recent past, and whereas Singletary fumbled it 10 times in that period, Breida fumbled 4 times. And there's of course that speed - 4.38 - which can't be coached. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I jumped on the Colts +7.5 last week too. The thing that makes me nervous betting the Saints is Siemian. I'm not sure he is a competent QB. He might be. But if he isn't, the Bills feast on incompetent QB's and so far this year that has lead to all the Bills victories averaging around a 3 TD margin. 

Great point. Siemian and Hill should be enough to keep the game close. I won't be surprised if the Saints line up Hill and gash the Bills with the run. 

 

Also, the Saints defense has been pretty good not withstanding the Eagles game. They get after the QB and by now we know that's the formula to beat the Bills. I don't see the Bills Oline holding off their pass rush.

 

Factor in home field advantage, Thanksgiving day, Saints coming off a bad loss, Bills won't run the ball, Allen isnt Allen of last year, and both sides of the Bills lines are subpar. 

 

Folks, this Bills team is not elite. Last year was an outliner. I know I will get crucified for that statement. The Bills are above average at best. 

 

Take the points! No way should the Bills be favored by 6. 

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

26 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm thinking more of Breida vs. Moss, but point taken.

The Bills really have no excuses for not winning by at least two scores. This is a total mismatch on paper. 

After the fiasco against Indie and the JAX embarrassment, I abondonet thoughts like that.   I would be happy with just a victory and no major injuries.

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

After the fiasco against Indie and the JAX embarrassment, I abondonet thoughts like that.   I would be happy with just a victory and no major injuries.

I hear ya, but I just have a feeling about this one. I think the coaches mailed it in regarding schemes vs. Jax because they didn't want to reveal much in what they expected would be a blowout (note that they stayed with the same pass-happy spread approach all game in a low-scoring dog fight), but it blew up in their faces. I think they're smart enough now to treat every week as a do-or-die situation. They are just a better team than NO and have their backs against the wall. Plus they're pretty healthy and NO definitely isn't.  

Edited November 24, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Logic]

13 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

 

 

Folks, this Bills team is not elite. Last year was an outliner.

 

Welp, there you have it. 

Sterling analysis.

[CSBill]

48 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Bummer 😝

[ytownblofan]

10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Great point. Siemian and Hill should be enough to keep the game close. I won't be surprised if the Saints line up Hill and gash the Bills with the run. 

 

Also, the Saints defense has been pretty good not withstanding the Eagles game. They get after the QB and by now we know that's the formula to beat the Bills. I don't see the Bills Oline holding off their pass rush.

 

Factor in home field advantage, Thanksgiving day, Saints coming off a bad loss, Bills won't run the ball, Allen isnt Allen of last year, and both sides of the Bills lines are subpar. 

 

Folks, this Bills team is not elite. Last year was an outliner. I know I will get crucified for that statement. The Bills are above average at best. 

 

Take the points! No way should the Bills be favored by 6. 

 

 

You mean the same Taysom Hill that has 171 rushing yards on the season? Listen, I get it, the Bills were abysmal against the colts running attack, but lets not kid ourselves into thinking Hill is in the same stratosphere as Jonathan Taylor. The Saints Oline is also extremely banged up compared to the Colts line.

 

You can't factor in the Saints coming off a bad loss without also factoring in that the Bills are also coming off a bad loss. Allen has been more than capable this year. Yes, he hasn't necessarily been the guy we expected, but he also has not been some awful QB. I will give you that the lines leave much to be desired. 

 

The Bills could very well lose this game, but lets not also ignore everything that is going in the Bills favor right now. 

- Saints trotting out Trevor Siemian

- Saints missing potentially both starting RBs and will likely be starting a guy just coming off IR himself

- Saints are missing their TE, their starting DE, and likely at least one OT

- Bills have a clean injury report

- In the games where Buffalo has disappointed this year, each of the following weeks they have covered the spread

 

The Bills have not been elite this year, they have shown flashes of it, but have also shown that when the wheels come loose, it can get ugly - just like several other top teams in the AFC. 

 

Take this all into consideration and it isn't difficult to see why the line is Bills -6. 

[Stank_Nasty]

 

Simms sees a tough one. Florio thinks we roll. More so because of the saints injuries than our own doing though.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I have no clue what to expect from this team anymore but regardless of Saints current condition, I’d be thrilled with a win. There will be no concern on style points or excuses. We need a win terribly. And if we get it, I’m going to be very pleased. The Jets win was what to do about nothing….this is different. Need to stop the bleeding now

[JaCrispy]

We will learn nothing from this game...a victory will bring no satisfaction- same ol’ beating up on a crappy/injured team if we win...meh...

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, JaCrispy said:

We will learn nothing from this game...a victory will bring no satisfaction- same ol’ beating up on a crappy/injured team if we win...meh...

 

We will learn a lot about the offense in this game. Most of the Saints injuries are on their offense. The defense has an easy match up. The offense needs to prove it can make adjustments to put up points on a good defense.

[Jpsredemption]

Saints maul the Bills with a heavy rushing attack and good defense. This will effectively deliver the dagger to the Bills. 6-5 and as mediocre as most of the drought years. 

[jkeerie]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

We will learn nothing from this game...a victory will bring no satisfaction- same ol’ beating up on a crappy/injured team if we win...meh...

We really haven't faced "injured" teams that much.  We faced the Steelers, Titans and Colts at full strength.  Yes, we faced a lot of backup QBs on the weaker teams...but the starting QBs for those teams are no great shakes either.  Whereas other teams in the conference have had the benefit of facing teams that have been injured.  Look at KC last week...they faced the Cowboys down their starting WRs.  NE will get the Titans without Henry.   We really haven't gotten any "breaks" this year, but on the other hand, we've played really poorly in two of the last 3 games, even with our starters out in key positions.  Losing to the Jags was inexcusable.  Using to the Colts wasn't.  It was the way we lost that was.   

[YoloinOhio]