Deep dive into Bills offense

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Old Coot]

Well done, son.  Excellent analysis.

[eball]

What a great read.  To be able to flip a switch like that four games in…wow.  And it certainly bodes well for the Bills being able to adjust in-game as well.

[Motor26]

I love that mindset. Our players are better than yours and we’re just going to dare you to stop us. 

[Scott7975]

Great freaking article.  Thanks for the share.

[Don Otreply]

It’s kinda like this for defenses; “‘oh Christ, is he gonna drop back or is he gonna run it, damn, he handed it off to Moss…, Next play, Knox, no Sanders, no Beasley, damn it it’s Diggs again…, ya just gotta love it! 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Big Turk]

A very lengthy read but exceptionally detailed...

 

One writer says the NFL should be afraid if the Bills offense after taking a deep look.

 

One writer says the league should be afraid of the Bills defense after taking a deep look.

 

Basically the league just needs to be afraid. We are coming for all of them.

[boater]

I have repeated visions of Josh Allen rushing into the end zone and spinning the ball into the turf in celebration. Anyone have a link?

[Shaw66]

Great article.  Thanks.  How about this:

 

Quote

It was hard not to come away from Sunday night believing two things: A) Everyone in the AFC should be terribly, terribly afraid; B) There’s so much more to come.

 

[TPS]

Not only was it great on the intricacies, but well-written.  Nice.

While he doesn't show up on the stat sheet, the under-appreciated Reggie Gilliam is becoming a nice little chess piece for Daboll. 

[Might Rather]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It was hard not to come away from Sunday night believing two things: A) Everyone in the AFC should be terribly, terribly afraid; B) There’s so much more to come.

I like both A and B but the latter seems like so much fun to look forward to

[Logic]

What an incredible read. Thanks so much for sharing it.

Exactly what I hoped would happened, happened:

The Bills DID spend all offseason trying to figure out a unique way to beat the Chiefs this year. They DID create a one of a kind, unicorn offensive gameplan. They DID stay pretty simple and true to form through the first four weeks, only to roll out the special stuff against KC. 

I knew from watching the game that Allen deserved an A+. I did not, however, realize quite the extent to which Daboll deserved an A+, too. What an excellent gameplan. What excellent execution.

Between the way the Bills out-schemed and out-physicaled the Chiefs on defense and the way they out-schemed and out-executed the Chiefs on offense, that win was about as thorough and awesome and stylistically excellent as you could hope for. Mahomes had his second worst game ever, Allen shined on a national stage, and the Bills took the reins of the AFC firmly into their hands. 

p.s. The Bills scheme change-up on offense is so interesting, and Collinsworth/Michaels didn't say a peep about it as it was happening. Would it kill the NFL to employ some analysts intelligent and well researched enough to recognize this stuff and relay it to the home audience as it's happening?!

Edited October 12, 2021 by Logic

[Coach Tuesday]

The best part of this was his conclusion that Daboll kept most of the game plan under wraps for the first month of the season - they had the Chiefs game circled on the calendar.  Coaches thinking Big Picture, and it’s what the Chiefs did to us in 2020.

 

This team is arriving.

[Rhode Island Red]

Logic and Coach, great posts.  Haven’t read the piece yet and already salivating…

[DallasBillsFan1]

Now let's do it again against the Titans.  Will be curious to see how we play Derrick Henry.  I wonder if TN will try the "ball control" method with time of possession.

[hondo in seattle]

Good article.  

 

I was  at the game and noticed the Bills were doing something different on offense.  But with my eyes mostly following the ball, I didn't completely understand what I was seeing.  This article explained a lot.  

[Kelly the Dog]

That is one well-researched, well-thought out, well-written article. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

That is one well-researched, well-thought out, well-written article. 

I don’t think I’ve seen it postulated anywhere else that perhaps Allen didn’t suck in college, it was the plays he was being asked to run that sucked (for him at least), fascinating.

[wjag]

My take aways from this article.  It explained a lot what my mind did not catch and I even slowed down every play of the game for both sides to watch the plays unfold.

 

1.)  I was wondering what happened to Beasley in this game.  The idea that he provides a free release for Sanders was great analysis.  So he was a decoy.

2.) I commented on this board the last two weeks that they were setting the stage for KC.  But I incorrectly assumed it was to run the ball. So they were tuning up the running game in my mind.  The offense just seemed so plain and Allen so not-Allen like (from last year).    When in fact, they ran an almost boring offense that got disguised by the big points they were scoring.  Nothing on tape for KC to see.

3.) I was beginning to think that the Allen to Diggs magic of last year was over.  Thinking back to what Diggs said after the WTF Game (where Beasley was focal) that he would be going off the next week (Texans) you get the distinct impression that teams are never going to know who is the focal point of the game plan anymore.  It could be Knox or Diggs or Davis or Sanders.  Good luck figuring it out.  And you get the sense the players accept this advanced game planning where it's my turn, it's not my turn.

4.) Lastly I was wondering where last year's razzle dazzle was.  Things like fake punts, half back options, OL pass TDs.  I get the feeling the play book will slowly open up and we will see more and more added.

[Kelly the Dog]

6 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t think I’ve seen it postulated anywhere else that perhaps Allen didn’t suck in college, it was the plays he was being asked to run that sucked (for him at least), fascinating.

Methinks it was a combination of several factors but that could well be a big part of it. He didn’t have good coaching. He wasn’t crazy inaccurate he just never checked down or threw easy completions. He was never coached out of hero ball. He didn’t have a lot of good players around him. He hadn’t played against good defenses before. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Who is this guy? Because the quote in his tweet doesn't seem to resemble some of the analysis Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others have done of the Daboll offense.

 

It's said to accompany a huge thick playbook, to have lots of variations on a play depending upon what the defense does (that the receivers and Allen must interpret the same way), and if anything, to be excessively complex - not "boom or bust and pare it down to concepts his QB can boom"

 

I guess I should read the article but...

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Who is this guy? Because the quote in his tweet doesn't seem to resemble some of the analysis Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others have done of the Daboll offense.

 

It's said to accompany a huge thick playbook, to have lots of variations on a play depending upon what the defense does (that the receivers and Allen must interpret the same way), and if anything, to be excessively complex - not "boom or bust and pare it down to concepts his QB can boom"

 

I guess I should read the article but...

Not sure but it’s a good read 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I had trouble accessing the actual article.  Here's a direct link:

 

https://readoptional.substack.com/p/bills-josh-allen-daboll-offense-scheme

 

The author, Ollie Connolly, says he is "Previously: NFL/CFB Scout, recruiting analyst"

[Apocalypse Nuts]

We've got a defensive-mastermind head coach who may be one of the best ever, who hired another defensive-mastermind once-head coach (also a once a key cog in arguably the most feared defensive ever) who also may be one of the best ever, to run that side of things almost entirely on his own.

 

They are utilizing all that defensive genius to create the modern-day Monster of NFL offenses and we, as long-suffering Buffalo Bills fans, are getting to be the beneficiaries of a 'process' that is already starting to produce something very, very special.  F--- YES!

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, eball said:

What a great read.  To be able to flip a switch like that four games in…wow.  And it certainly bodes well for the Bills being able to adjust in-game as well.

It shows the creativity and confidence in this team.  I hope Daboll can call a different game when it comes to playing the Titans,  Ravens, Chargers and Browns down the road

5 minutes ago, Apocalypse Nuts said:

We've got a defensive-mastermind head coach who may be one of the best ever, who hired another defensive-mastermind once-head coach (also a once a key cog in arguably the most feared defensive ever) who also may be one of the best ever, to run that side of things almost entirely on his own.

 

They are utilizing all that defensive genius to create the modern-day Monster of NFL offenses and we, as long-suffering Buffalo Bills fans, are getting to be the beneficiaries of a 'process' that is already starting to produce something very, very special.  F--- YES!

Don't forget Beane's role is in giving him some of the best players in the NFL to play defense.....

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

A very lengthy read but exceptionally detailed...

 

One writer says the NFL should be afraid if the Bills offense after taking a deep look.

 

One writer says the league should be afraid of the Bills defense after taking a deep look.

 

Basically the league just needs to be afraid. We are coming for all of them.

We are becoming the hunted.....

[billybob71]

i kept saying to my son during the game "why aren't they spreading them out?" "why are they so bunched up in this game?" now i get it, pretty brilliant game plan

[YoloinOhio]

55 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t think I’ve seen it postulated anywhere else that perhaps Allen didn’t suck in college, it was the plays he was being asked to run that sucked (for him at least), fascinating.

If you look back at Justin Herbert, for example, that was absolutely the case with him

[Don Otreply]

11 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It shows the creativity and confidence in this team.  I hope Daboll can call a different game when it comes to playing the Titans,  Ravens, Chargers and Browns down the road

Don't forget Beane's role is in giving him some of the best players in the NFL to play defense.....

We are becoming the hunted.....

We are becoming a team to be feared, really, who’s hunting us???  It is the Bills who are doing the hunting. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Richard Noggin]

"You don’t serve Châteauneuf-du-Pape at a family barbeque; you crush margaritas."

 

-This MF spittin' 

[Richard Noggin]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Who is this guy? Because the quote in his tweet doesn't seem to resemble some of the analysis Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others have done of the Daboll offense.

 

It's said to accompany a huge thick playbook, to have lots of variations on a play depending upon what the defense does (that the receivers and Allen must interpret the same way), and if anything, to be excessively complex - not "boom or bust and pare it down to concepts his QB can boom"

 

I guess I should read the article but...

The thing that rings so true in his analysis, even though Connolly never explicitly acknowledges the link, is that: the E-P passing offense Daboll is schooled in relies on running the same route concepts but out of different formations and personnel groupings. This allows for pre-snap motions (which help the QB diagnose coverage) and the illusion of schematic complexity/diversity when in fact the offense is just dressing up the same core route concepts and combinations in different looks. 

 

Take the following example of the first Sanders TD (in which the Bills stick with their preferred route concepts while using a different offensive school's formation):

 

 

[Rhode Island Red]

8 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

The thing that rings so true in his analysis, even though Connolly never explicitly acknowledges the link, is that: the E-P passing offense Daboll is schooled in relies on running the same route concepts but out of different formations and personnel groupings. This allows for pre-snap motions (which help the QB diagnose coverage) and the illusion of schematic complexity/diversity when in fact the offense is just dressing up the same core route concepts and combinations in different looks. 

 

Take the following example of the first Sanders TD (in which the Bills stick with their preferred route concepts while using a different offensive school's formation):

 

 

Thanks, great explanation, so I went back to the article and watched/read multiple times.  This quote is good, imho:

”

On the Sanders touchdown, the Bills paired a vertical hook with an out-and-up to the stacked side. On the backside, Stefon Diggs had a go route. The vertical hook is there to draw the eyes of both safeties towards the high hole/post zone. If either safety bites on the hook, Allen can launch it vertical to that side. If both safeties split out to cover the vertical routes, Allen can fire it to the hook.

At the snap, Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (#38) backed up towards the sideline. The safeties tried to bracket Diggs on the go (the most dangerous player) and the slot (the most dangerous route). Sanders broke out then up, roasting Sneed for the simple touchdown.”

[Big Turk]

57 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It shows the creativity and confidence in this team.  I hope Daboll can call a different game when it comes to playing the Titans,  Ravens, Chargers and Browns down the road

Don't forget Beane's role is in giving him some of the best players in the NFL to play defense.....

We are becoming the hunted.....

 

We got a lot of people shooting back, I'm not afraid.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

What an incredible read. Thanks so much for sharing it.

Exactly what I hoped would happened, happened:

The Bills DID spend all offseason trying to figure out a unique way to beat the Chiefs this year. They DID create a one of a kind, unicorn offensive gameplan. They DID stay pretty simple and true to form through the first four weeks, only to roll out the special stuff against KC. 

I knew from watching the game that Allen deserved an A+. I did not, however, realize quite the extent to which Daboll deserved an A+, too. What an excellent gameplan. What excellent execution.

Between the way the Bills out-schemed and out-physicaled the Chiefs on defense and the way they out-schemed and out-executed the Chiefs on offense, that win was about as thorough and awesome and stylistically excellent as you could hope for. Mahomes had his second worst game ever, Allen shined on a national stage, and the Bills took the reins of the AFC firmly into their hands. 

p.s. The Bills scheme change-up on offense is so interesting, and Collinsworth/Michaels didn't say a peep about it as it was happening. Would it kill the NFL to employ some analysts intelligent and well researched enough to recognize this stuff and relay it to the home audience as it's happening?!

Right about NBC. 

 

But it's not one of a kind, unicorn.  It's on film and every team has to account for it.  The Bills now know how to run and pass out of those formations and run their offense out of them.  Everyone will now have to game plan for that offensive philosophy AND the Bills' base offense.  And the Bills will run this offense here and there to keep people honest. 

 

This is the beauty of the personnel continuity that is so important to McDermott.  This offense is now part of what the Bills can do, and the Bills will pull it out of mothballs next week, or next month, or next year, when they need it.   I heard Brady talk about one time when he and Belichick were watching film of the defense they were playing the next week and they resurrected a play from eight years earlier, because they knew it would work.   Half the team remembered the play, and there was very little difficulty incorporating it into the game plan.   

 

When you have continuity, you build year after year, and that makes you even tougher to beat, year after year. 

 

Reading that article is really exciting.  It's about the kind of scheming that you want your offensive coordinator to do.  It's bad enough if the defense has to try to stop a top rated offense.  It's worse if you have to stop an offense that can attack you with multiple styles. 

[Richard Noggin]

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right about NBC. 

 

But it's not one of a kind, unicorn.  It's on film and every team has to account for it.  The Bills now know how to run and pass out of those formations and run their offense out of them.  Everyone will now have to game plan for that offensive philosophy AND the Bills' base offense.  And the Bills will run this offense here and there to keep people honest. 

 

This is the beauty of the personnel continuity that is so important to McDermott.  This offense is now part of what the Bills can do, and the Bills will pull it out of mothballs next week, or next month, or next year, when they need it.   I heard Brady talk about one time when he and Belichick were watching film of the defense they were playing the next week and they resurrected a play from eight years earlier, because they knew it would work.   Half the team remembered the play, and there was very little difficulty incorporating it into the game plan.   

 

When you have continuity, you build year after year, and that makes you even tougher to beat, year after year. 

 

Reading that article is really exciting.  It's about the kind of scheming that you want your offensive coordinator to do.  It's bad enough if the defense has to try to stop a top rated offense.  It's worse if you have to stop an offense that can attack you with multiple styles. 

I just typed almost this exact point in response to someone on FB. (Shared this article with friends, which is something I rarely feel compelled to do with sports writing.) 

 

Not only did Daboll deliberately withhold and then unveil an unexpected set of formations, personnel-groupings, and tendencies in order to defeat a specific opponent...but he also just suddenly gave every future defensive opponent THAT much more to prepare for ahead of time and react to on the field. Potential paradigm shift we're witnessing. A multiplication of play-calling possibilities.

[HappyDays]

This team is so good we ran a vanilla preseason-esque game plan against Houston just to confuse our next opponent and still blew them out 40-0. The 17 point spread should have been reserved for Kansas City.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

OK read it now.

 

I think his assessment of the Chiefs game formations itself is very good.

 

When he starts talking about the Bills in previous years, or what Allen likes to do, or Daboll's "simple" playbook which John Brown called "the most complicated he'd seen", it's shallow as an August stream in Missouri.   And of course, he makes it sound like there was a philosophical transition between 2019 and 2020 due to realizing Allen was a bad QB: "And then they woke up and realized that Allen was a bad college player. So why were they trying so hard to run all that heavy personnel and deep play-action stuff? If he was bad within that setup in college could they really be surprised that he was just as bad in the league? In 2020, Daboll took the hand brake off, and – hey presto – Allen became an MVP candidate."  This is 1) insulting to Allen and Daboll 2) blind to the fact that in 2020, the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs and drafted Gabe Davis, giving them the WR personnel to actually operate with Brown and Beasley out of 4 or 5 WR sets.  In 2019, the Bills really had Brown Beasley and ?who? at WR, and they had a true fullback and a great blocking TE on the roster, and they were tenuous at RT - so it makes sense they would operate out of more heavy sets. 

 

But they also still ran 70% (1,1) with 3 WR.  They didn't change sets because of this fantasy of the authors that "the Bills woke up and realized that Allen was a bad college player".  They changed sets because they parted ways with DiMarco and acquired a great vet WR and a very good rookie (and McKenzie leveled up his route running as well).  And Allen improved because he worked his ass off to improve his passing technique, not because the Bills changed the offense. 

 

For example, he says "Most quarterbacks like crisscrossing routes because they can spring open throws. Not Allen. He likes to bounce one, to two, to three independently. And then he launches."   This just reads like a guy who really isn't very familiar with Daboll or the Bills at all.  Last year and in some games this season, the Bills thrived on crossing routes.  Daboll used them to great effect to ensure someone or another was open.  Beasley feasted.  I haven't forced myself back through the all-22 of the first 3 games yet, but vs WFT where Beasley collected 98 yds, I'm pretty sure I'm going to find crossing routes.

 

Then there's his initial assessment of the Bills offense "Outside of Arizona, no team has embraced the principles of the spread more than the Bills. And we’re not talking about spread-option, hat-counting football here. We’re talking about old-fashioned, spread-to-throw, true Air-Raid stuff. They plant as many wide receivers on the field as possible, chuck them in as much space as possible, and then throw to the open man. Whether that’s 50 yards, 15 yards or 5 yards downfield depends on the defensive alignment and coverage." 

 

I'm like C'Mon Man.  The Bills ran a lot of empty set (13%) 5 WR and 1 back 4 WR (29%) against the Steelers, and only 52% (1,1) 3 WR that was their bread-n-butter last year, but in the Miami game and even more the WFT game, their predominant set was last year's predominant set, (1,1).  Against Miami we ran 14% (2,1) 2 WR, 2 back sets and 8% against Washington, with almost no 4 or 5 WR sets against Miami and no 5 WR, 8% 4 WR against WFT.  Then against the Texans, we were 55% (1,1) sets, 7% (1,0) 4 WR set, 0 5 WR set, but 20% (2,1) with 2 WR and 2 backs, and 13% (1,2) with 2 WR, 2 TE. 

 

My point is when the guy talks about formations overall in the first 4 games being 76% (1,1) or (1,0), that's true on average but there was actually a lot of game to game variation.

 

Of course, being a total homer, I love it when he says "But all throws are high percentage throws to Allen", however last season, and so far this season, that simply hasn't been true.  Before this game, Allen was 7 for 20 on throws at or beyond 20 yards. 1 of 8 vs Pitts, 2 of 5 vs Miami, 2 of 5 vs WFT, and 2 of 2 vs Texans.  Hitting 1 or 2 deep throws to an open receiver in the Pittsburgh game may well have swung the game, because Tomlin knew bloody well where Allen is deadly (those 10-20 yd throws in the middle of the field) and he did everything he could to take those away.

 

Anyway, nice analysis of the Chiefs game but take his comments about Allen, the Bills offense, and Daboll in general with a large salt shaker to hand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's bad enough if the defense has to try to stop a top rated offense.  It's worse if you have to stop an offense that can attack you with multiple styles. 

 

I know the offense isn't statistically producing as well as last year but it feels a lot more playoff-ready. Last year our entire offense was Allen throwing the ball to WRs. That was it. It's insane that it went as well as it did and it was never going to be sustainable. In the AFCCG the WRs were banged up, the Chiefs DBs were able to get physical, and predictably our offense sputtered. This year we have Knox and Singletary and Moss getting involved. The run game is not elite but it is serviceable. Having a multidimensional offense led by a freak at QB is the kind of thing we dreamed about for 20 years.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Rhode Island Red said:

Thanks, great explanation, so I went back to the article and watched/read multiple times.  This quote is good, imho:

”

On the Sanders touchdown, the Bills paired a vertical hook with an out-and-up to the stacked side. On the backside, Stefon Diggs had a go route. The vertical hook is there to draw the eyes of both safeties towards the high hole/post zone. If either safety bites on the hook, Allen can launch it vertical to that side. If both safeties split out to cover the vertical routes, Allen can fire it to the hook.

At the snap, Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (#38) backed up towards the sideline. The safeties tried to bracket Diggs on the go (the most dangerous player) and the slot (the most dangerous route). Sanders broke out then up, roasting Sneed for the simple touchdown.”

 

What's really impressive in the chart he shows is where Sanders is in his route when Allen throws.  He's like at the 12 yd line, and the DB is right on his hip.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I know the offense isn't statistically producing as well as last year

 

We're leading the league in points scored.  What kind of statistical production you lookin' for?

 

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

but it feels a lot more playoff-ready. Last year our entire offense was Allen throwing the ball to WRs. That was it. It's insane that it went as well as it did and it was never going to be sustainable.

 

I agree with you completely.  We have a reasonable run game (currently 9th for ypa and 5th for total yards), that teams have to at least consider.  And we have a passing game to the TE who can also stay in to run block decently or to protect decently.  That's also huge in allowing us to operate.

 

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

In the AFCCG the WRs were banged up, the Chiefs DBs were able to get physical, and predictably our offense sputtered. This year we have Knox and Singletary and Moss getting involved. The run game is not elite but it is serviceable. Having a multidimensional offense led by a freak at QB is the kind of thing we dreamed about for 20 years.

 

Agree.  Just crossing my fingers and spinning the 'ol Prayer Wheel that Hard Knox and the "Moss Motor Company" sustain what they're doing (and avert injuries).

 

PS I agree that one wouldn't call our run game "elite", but at present, the Ravens have 744 rushing yds and we have 704.  That's not a typo; we have 40 less rush yards than the Ravens, an amount that could easily have swapped on a couple lovely runs that were neutralized by penalties.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Brian Daboll is a top 10 offensive coordinator.