Ben Allbright’s annual mock draft has Bills taking Etienne at 30. He’s been right about where Bills are looking several years running.

[Logic]

Benjamin Allbright only posts one mock draft each year. He posts it the day before the draft.

 

**Edit: He has known which direction the Bills were leaning several years running (not last year, as they had no 1st round pick). He sometimes knows the specific player they like, but usually at least knows the position they most want to pick in round 1. From what I have experienced in the past few years, he seems to have legitimate league sources.

 

This year, he said over a month ago that they were looking running back and has stuck to his guns ever since. Lo and behold, in his mock, he has them taking Etienne even with Newsome and Barmore still on the board.

 

I’m posting this only because Allbright seems to have legit league sources, particularly one with the Bills, and he’s way more accurate/trustworthy than most. 

 

Take from it what you will.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-round-albright/

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Logic

[Special K]

Maybe he can break the curse of the Clemson first round picks for the Bills.

 

Spiller, Watkins = bad mojo!!

 

[Process]

Don't like taking a RB in the first but would get over it very quickly if we did at 30. At the end of the day this offense needs another playmaker and Etienne would give us that.

 

If we trade up for one though I'd be pissed. If it's for say our first and a third, we would have spent three third rounds picks and a first on RBs in three years. 

 

YUCK

[DrDawkinstein]

Much like the Roulette Results board in a casino, past results don't mean much for predicting the current pick.

 

It was far easier to hit on our pick when we were consistently picking in or near the Top 10.

 

I feel like even I accurately predicted our picks, going back to at least Gilmore. And I dont know anything.

 

Now, if he nails this pick, then THAT is something to brag about, and I'll give him a lot of credit going into next year's mocks.

1 minute ago, Special K said:

Maybe he can break the curse of the Clemson first round picks for the Bills.

 

Spiller, Watkins = bad mojo!!

 

 

Shaq did alright, considering.

[Special K]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Shaq did alright, considering.

 

Fair point...forgot about Lawson.

 

I wouldn’t hate the pick at 30, but no trade up please!! 

[Logic]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Much like the Roulette Results board in a casino, past results don't mean much for predicting the current pick.

 

It was far easier to hit on our pick when we were consistently picking in or near the Top 10.

 

I feel like even I accurately predicted our picks, going back to at least Gilmore. And I dont know anything.

 

Now, if he nails this pick, then THAT is something to brag about, and I'll give him a lot of credit going into next year's mocks.

 

Totally fair. Based on Allbright apparently having a source within the Bills (which he has subtly implied), I think what this says is that if ETN is on the board at 30, he’s their guy. With 29 picks happening before the Bills are up, it only takes one team to ruin the Bills’ plan and thus, to make Allbright’s pick wrong.

 

I think it’s reasonable to conclude that ETN might be their preferred player based on who they think will be available. Allbright also previously stated that the Bills will be flexible if a player of high value at a premium position slips. If the board falls as many expect, it might be time to buy a #9 Bills jersey.
 

 

[Process]

Also that run on DEs and WRs he's got from 21-29 would be absolutely brutal for us. If it played out like that , Etienne at 30 wouldn't be that bad. But the best move would be to trade down.

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Ben Albright is not your friend

Where’s the picture, House? You’re slipping.

[LABILLBACKER]

As long as we don't have to trade up to get him I could tolerate the pick. He'll immediately need to learn pass blocking. I do like his RB skills/speed over Najee. It will be hard to see McB pass on a defensive player @ 30.

[MJS]

Easier to predict when the Bills were picking high. Guess we'll find out soon!

[US Egg]

So Allbright is all right?

 

Find out in about 35 hrs.

 

I won't quibble either way.

 

 

[Canadian Bills Fan]

If the board falls like that, I would rather have Newsome

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

Totally fair. Based on Allbright apparently having a source within the Bills (which he has subtly implied), I think what this says is that if ETN is on the board at 30, he’s their guy. With 29 picks happening before the Bills are up, it only takes one team to ruin the Bills’ plan and thus, to make Allbright’s pick wrong.

 

I think it’s reasonable to conclude that ETN might be their preferred player based on who they think will be available. Allbright also previously stated that the Bills will be flexible if a player of high value at a premium position slips. If the board falls as many expect, it might be time to buy a #9 Bills jersey.
 

 

 

Absolutely.

 

And to that same end, if he ISNT correct about our pick, I wont call him a hack. I dont doubt Beane has some interest in ETN, but to guess who will be available at 30 is almost impossible.

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Allbright only posts one mock draft each year. He posts it the day before the draft.

 

He has mocked the correct 1st round player to the Bills several years running (not last year, as they had no 1st round pick).

 

This year, he said over a month ago that they were looking running back and has stuck to his guns ever since. Lo and behold, in his mock, he has them taking Etienne even with Newsome and Barmore still on the board.

 

I’m posting this only because Allbright seems to have legit league sources, particularly one with the Bills, and he’s way more accurate/trustworthy than most. 

 

Take from it what you will.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-round-albright/

 

Which 1st round picks other than Allen has he gotten correct? He didn’t have Oliver in 2019. Did he have the 2017 pick of Tre white?

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

As long as we don't have to trade up to get him I could tolerate the pick. He'll immediately need to learn pass blocking. I do like his RB skills/speed over Najee. It will be hard to see McB pass on a defensive player @ 30.

 

Disagree.

 

He should be out in the flat catching the hot route pass and turning it up field for 15 yards.

 

If we keep him in to block at all, THEN it is a wasted pick.

[Virgil]

16 minutes ago, Special K said:

Maybe he can break the curse of the Clemson first round picks for the Bills.

 

Spiller, Watkins = bad mojo!!

 

Shaq

[ProcessYaDigg]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Much like the Roulette Results board in a casino, past results don't mean much for predicting the current pick.

 

It was far easier to hit on our pick when we were consistently picking in or near the Top 10.

 

I feel like even I accurately predicted our picks, going back to at least Gilmore. And I dont know anything.

 

Now, if he nails this pick, then THAT is something to brag about, and I'll give him a lot of credit going into next year's mocks.

 

This was my first initial thought when i opened this post.  I'd like to see how he's done in the past several years with his mock drafts for teams who've been selecting in the bottom 10 of the draft.

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Much like the Roulette Results board in a casino, past results don't mean much for predicting the current pick.

 

It was far easier to hit on our pick when we were consistently picking in or near the Top 10.

 

I feel like even I accurately predicted our picks, going back to at least Gilmore. And I dont know anything.

 

Now, if he nails this pick, then THAT is something to brag about, and I'll give him a lot of credit going into next year's mocks.

 

Shaq did alright, considering.

Did he really though?  He did ok in his contract year....other than that, he’s one of the least memorable players in recent memory imo. Complete waste of space until it was time to get paid.  I wish he was still on the Dolphins 

[Virgil]

15 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:Shaq did alright, considering.

You mean the guy we didn’t re-sign after an okay season and has since been traded off his new team?  
 

You got some low expectations boss 😋

[Brennan Huff]

8 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

Fair point...forgot about Lawson.

 

I wouldn’t hate the pick at 30, but no trade up please!! 

I wouldn’t consider Shaq’s time in Buffalo a success. I mean he wasn’t terrible but I’d say Spiller and Watkins both had more production. Spiller did have a 1000 yard season, and Sammy averaged 1000 yards a season his first 2 years in Buffalo. But none of the three got a 2nd contract with the team. I’d consider that bad drafting 

[gotme365]

Drafting a RB will definitely help with getting pressure on Mahomes and beating the improved Chiefs o-line

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

If the board falls like that, I would rather have Newsome

 

I'm not that big of a college football fan so I have to ask those who know.

Is Newsome the type of CB that fits into McDermott's schemes?

Is he at least a top of the 2nd round pick?

[Ya Digg?]

2 minutes ago, gotme365 said:

Drafting a RB will definitely help with getting pressure on Mahomes and beating the improved Chiefs o-line

Look at this picks above the Bills pick - so you would rather take a clearly second tier (at best) edge rusher over a player who is clearly a much better player?

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, gotme365 said:

Drafting a RB will definitely help with getting pressure on Mahomes and beating the improved Chiefs o-line

The NFL should consider having more than one round in the draft.

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Which 1st round picks other than Allen has he gotten correct? He didn’t have Oliver in 2019. Did he have the 2017 pick of Tre white?

 

 

I tried to click his 2019 mock to see if he had Oliver being taken before the Bills’ pick, which would make his prediction of Wilkins make more sense, but it seems it’s no longer online.

 

It would have been more accurate of me to say that he always seems to know where the Bills are looking, positionally. He recently claimed to have correctly projected the position they would be drafting in the 1st going back five years.

 

There are times, though, when he does seem to know the specific player within that position group that they like. I’ll never forget 2018 draft season. Guesses on who teams liked at QB were all over the map. Allbright was the one national voice who stated emphatically early on that Allen was the Bills’ guy, no question about it. That they were putting in a ton of work on him specifically. He was mercilessly ripped apart by Bills fans who didn’t want it to be true, but he never backed off.

 

This year saw him insisting that running back is where they’d look in round 1, again to the chagrin of Bills fans. I have not seen him indicate that they have interest in ETN specifically, though, other than mocking him to them today. He only seems insistent that they want a running back.

[gotme365]

3 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Look at this picks above the Bills pick - so you would rather take a clearly second tier (at best) edge rusher over a player who is clearly a much better player?

Yes if it means not drafting a RB in the 1st. Having already drafting 2 3rd RB’s in back to back year it would be a terrible use of assets to draft another in the 1st. The RB out of Iowa St is faster than Etienne. He is predicted as a 7th rounder. Draft him if you want a home run hitter. We also have Brieda. The game is won in the trenches. It’s non debatable 

[ALLEN1QB]

Is he an upgrade if he is I have no problem with it

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Did he really though?  He did ok in his contract year....other than that, he’s one of the least memorable players in recent memory imo. Complete waste of space until it was time to get paid.  I wish he was still on the Dolphins 

 

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

You mean the guy we didn’t re-sign after an okay season and has since been traded off his new team?  
 

You got some low expectations boss 😋

 

Dont make me defend Shaq when I never said anything worth defending.

 

My statement was literally: He did alright... considering...

 

Considering he was taken at #19, not top-10 or even top half of the round.

Considering he was forced upon us/Whaley by Rex who just had to have him for his system.

Considering there wasnt another DE in the 2016 draft that we would have been better off taking, looking at who went in the rest of the 1st and 2nd. You could say Ngakoue who went in the 3rd, but that would have been a reach and not in Rex's system (see above).

Considering he had a bad shoulder and needed surgery.

Etc...

 

Considering all that, he did alright. Not great. Alright. But certainly less of a bust than Watkins and Spiller given their relative draft positions.

 

I also believe that if he had returned to Buffalo instead of going to Miami, he would have had a better season last year.

 

Anyways. On to ETN

[Logic]

 

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, gotme365 said:

Drafting a RB will definitely help with getting pressure on Mahomes and beating the improved Chiefs o-line

Meanwhile we scored 17 and 24 against the chiefs defense.....

 

I’m not saying that drafting a RB is the key to us beating them, but to insinuate that we have to draft defense in order to beat the chiefs is a bad take yo.  A team also has to score a lot of points to beat the chiefs.  17 and 24 isn’t a lot of points. Stopping the chiefs O isn’t the key to beating them.  Scoring more points than them is.

[mjt328]

Skeptical.  Does anyone actually have links to his previous mock drafts?  I can only find a link to 2020, where the Bills didn't have a 1st Round Pick.

Not sure this guy is as accurate as he's touting himself.

 

In 2019, I did about 100 simulation mock drafts in the weeks leading up the draft.  (Love those things by the way...)

I took Ed Oliver almost every time, and I had zero inside information, outside of being a close fan of the team.  

 

In 2018, everyone on the planet knew the Bills were going to pick a QB.  And most had it narrowed down to Josh Rosen or Josh Allen by this point.

I'm sure he didn't call us trading up for Tremaine Edmunds later in the draft.

 

In 2017, many fans were expecting and hoping for a trade down.  I would like to see if he called it being with the Chiefs, or us picking Tre White.  Unlikely.

 

 

[BillsFanSD]

I'll be happy with ETN if that's who we take at 30.  I'd prefer a corner or edge rusher, but if he's the highest-rated guy on our board when our pick rolls around, no problem.  It's fun having an offense like this -- that said, we can only score so many points per game and our defense obviously needs some attention elsewhere in the draft.

[Ya Digg?]

2 minutes ago, gotme365 said:

Yes if it means not drafting a RB in the 1st. Having already drafting 2 3rd RB’s in back to back year it would be a terrible use of assets to draft another in the 1st. The RB out of Iowa St is faster than Etienne. He is predicted as a 7th rounder. Draft him if you want a home run hitter. We also have Brieda. The game is won in the trenches. It’s non debatable 

But again, you are suggesting taking a football player who is not as good as the player they are taking.  It gets talked about all the time - in the first round take the best player available.  Speed isn't the only thing - if it was Brieda wouldn't be on his third team in 3 years and that prospect you mentioned wouldn't be a 7th round talent.  There are several edge rushers taken before the Bills pick in this mock, so you are taking the 5th or 6th best edge rusher in the first round.  That is a terrible use of assets.  I agree that the Bills need an edge rusher, but not an edge rusher at all costs in the first round just to take an edge rusher

[mjt328]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

There are times, though, when he does seem to know the specific player within that position group that they like. I’ll never forget 2018 draft season. Guesses on who teams liked at QB were all over the map. Allbright was the one national voice who stated emphatically early on that Allen was the Bills’ guy, no question about it. That they were putting in a ton of work on him specifically. He was mercilessly ripped apart by Bills fans who didn’t want it to be true, but he never backed off.

 

Baker Mayfield was the clear favorite for #1 by the time we reached the home stretch.

Sam Darnold wasn't expected to last past #2.

Lamar Jackson was considered a late-1st Rounder.

 

I think most (realistic) people had this narrowed down to Josh Rosen and Josh Allen by Draft Day.

 

[Logic]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

Skeptical.  Does anyone actually have links to his previous mock drafts?  I can only find a link to 2020, where the Bills didn't have a 1st Round Pick.

Not sure this guy is as accurate as he's touting himself.

 

In 2019, I did about 100 simulation mock drafts in the weeks leading up the draft.  (Love those things by the way...)

I took Ed Oliver almost every time, and I had zero inside information, outside of being a close fan of the team.  

 

In 2018, everyone on the planet knew the Bills were going to pick a QB.  And most had it narrowed down to Josh Rosen or Josh Allen by this point.

I'm sure he didn't call us trading up for Tremaine Edmunds later in the draft.

 

In 2017, many fans were expecting and hoping for a trade down.  I would like to see if he called it being with the Chiefs, or us picking Tre White.  Unlikely.

 

 

See my previous reply to YOLO in this thread. 
 

I do believe he has good league sources, including within the bills, and he always seems to know what position they’ll take. And he DOES know specific players they’re enamored with some years.

 

To what degree people want to trust Allbright is up to them. I have found him to be one of the more trustworthy and clued in reporters throughout the years.

 

It is true, though, that my thread title probably overstated his previous accuracy, at least as it relates to specific names. I may change the thread title.

Just now, mjt328 said:

 

Baker Mayfield was the clear favorite for #1 by the time we reached the home stretch.

Sam Darnold wasn't expected to last past #2.

Lamar Jackson was considered a late-1st Rounder.

 

I think most (realistic) people had this narrowed down to Josh Rosen and Josh Allen by Draft Day.

 

Yeah I don’t really want to spend all day defending Allbright. Believe it or don’t. Take it or leave it. I’ll just say that If there was an “NFL reporters who give trustworthy draft intel” draft tomorrow, he’d be my 1st pick.

[RyanC883]

I hate this.  Pats get Fields, and get the 3rd best RB.  Williams is still available and is a better fit than Etienne.   

[Reed83HOF]

30 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

As long as we don't have to trade up to get him I could tolerate the pick. He'll immediately need to learn pass blocking. I do like his RB skills/speed over Najee. It will be hard to see McB pass on a defensive player @ 30.

I expect we will have to move a little to get him. I am more comfortable expecting the pick to be RB or Edge. I do think Beane would like to hold on to his 3rd, he wants his top 3 picks if possible in a very lite draft class

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Dont make me defend Shaq when I never said anything worth defending.

 

My statement was literally: He did alright... considering...

 

Considering he was taken at #19, not top-10 or even top half of the round.

Considering he was forced upon us/Whaley by Rex who just had to have him for his system.

Considering there wasnt another DE in the 2016 draft that we would have been better off taking, looking at who went in the rest of the 1st and 2nd. You could say Ngakoue who went in the 3rd, but that would have been a reach and not in Rex's system (see above).

Considering he had a bad shoulder and needed surgery.

Etc...

 

Considering all that, he did alright. Not great. Alright. But certainly less of a bust than Watkins and Spiller given their relative draft positions.

 

I also believe that if he had returned to Buffalo instead of going to Miami, he would have had a better season last year.

 

Anyways. On to ETN

He was a bust imo.  
 

Are you hoping for Etienne?  
 

since I started scouting this draft class, my thoughts on drafting Etienne has been a roller coaster.  
 

At first, I thought he would be a great pick and wanted him regardless of my thoughts on 1st rd rbs.  I thought picking 30th was like a 2nd rd pick and his skill set is perfect for our needs.  

 

Then I fell in love with Kenneth Gainwell and would rather take him in rd 2-3 and use our 1st on a CB/DE/WR.  Drafting a Rb in rd 1 was again, a no no.

 

now, after watching more and more of his tape, I’m starting to feel like he’d be the perfect compliment to our offense and could be just what the Dr ordered.  Take it to the house.....that’s what he does.  That’s what we need.

He’s not my first choice.....but I’d be very excited if he is our pick.  As fans, that’s all we can ask for.  To be excited. Etienne is that

[gotme365]

5 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

But again, you are suggesting taking a football player who is not as good as the player they are taking.  It gets talked about all the time - in the first round take the best player available.  Speed isn't the only thing - if it was Brieda wouldn't be on his third team in 3 years and that prospect you mentioned wouldn't be a 7th round talent.  There are several edge rushers taken before the Bills pick in this mock, so you are taking the 5th or 6th best edge rusher in the first round.  That is a terrible use of assets.  I agree that the Bills need an edge rusher, but not an edge rusher at all costs in the first round just to take an edge rusher

I should have also stated I’d be ok with a CB in the 1st. It just seems as all of the SuperBowl winning teams have RB’s that weren’t drafted high or they found on the waiver wire. 

[aristocrat]

if we hang tight and get him at 30 im good but like others say if we trade up im gonna be a little pissed.  but if he comes in and puts up 1500-1800 all purpose yards and 13 tds like kamara does we will forget about it pretty quick.