Jump to content

Not Sure We Will Repeat as AFCE Champs


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

Funny I usually find you to be a negative Nancy you where anti Allen for a long time but look they return an entire team that went 13-3 which is pretty much unheard of in modern free agency those other teams all have to play catch-up 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Bills had the 5th toughest strength of schedule in 2020 and went 13-3 with one of those losses being on a fluke Hail Mary. The next closest Playoff team in terms of SOS? The Rams @ #10. We bring back basically everyone except Brown (whose position we upgraded), some journeyman depth OL personnel, a Punter, a KR/PR, and some lack luster guys on the DL. The rest of the NFL has changes due to cap situations. BB's spending spree doesn't scare me for 3 reasons. One, Tom Brady isn't walking through that door. Two, I've watched multiple teams try to buy a championship and I can't recall one time where it actually worked. Three, who even knows how all of these players will fit together in those offensive/defensive systems. It could end up being a resounding thud. The Jets are still the Jets. Who do they have to develop Darnold? Their OL is still suspect outside of Becton. Their defense will surely be improved under Saleh, but nothing about them scares me at the moment when in direct comparison with Buffalo. The Dolphins don't have Fitz to win 8 of their 10 games for them this year. Their is no "relief pitcher" in the bullpen. It's all on Tua and his arm was looking all noodle last year. I think the hip injury has affected him being able to drive the football. I also don't see how they have really improved overall. The draft is still yet to come for all of us so we'll see then. But if we can stay relatively healthy again this year, especially Josh, then I like our chances. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Obviously, I knew I was going to be attacked.  I was actually hoping for strong counter arguments to make me more optimistic.  

 

And the best counter-argument is that the other three teams still lack QBs - unless a rookie phenom changes the picture or one of the incumbent QBs makes a surprise improvement.  

 

Until one of the other teams in our division has a QB playing at a top 10, or even top 16 level, you're not going to convince anyone that the Bills are not a heavy favorite to win the division. To take down a top 5 QB with a top 5 WR corps you either need an absolutely elite roster, or a QB capable of keeping up. No one in our division meets that standard.

 

If you want to make the case that the Bills haven't improved enough to beat the Chiefs, that is a more defensible position. They need to add a player with game breaking speed on offense, ideally a RB, and get their pass rush up to an above average level. A real CB2 would also help so that our safeties could double Kelce instead of shading Wallace's man. The best case I can make for our defense is that Star returning will allow Oliver to play his natural position. If Oliver and Epenesa and Edmunds all take a step this year that would make a huge impact, but I also recognize that that is a projection not a guarantee.

Edited by HappyDays
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Curious premise from OP.  I can't get behind this.  Top to bottom on the roster, the team is good to stacked.  They go into the draft for the first time in my memory looking for BPA.  My gut tells me something like DE/DT, RB, CB, C/G and LB/FS will be the picks.  They're bringing back all coaches, most players and front office.  Probably THE most stable franchise, at the moment, in the NFL.  These be crazy times.  Enjoy the ride.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bills should be favoured to win the Division again. I am intrigued with what Belly is doing in NE. Brady has proven that he can win without Bill. I think Bill will go all out this year to prove that he can win without Tom. Their D should be good again especially with Hightower coming back. Cam has his faults and is not nearly the passer Allen has become but he will have much better receivers and those two premium TEs will help him out a lot. Pats will not be an easy out IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, we can't just assume the division is ours...but I really do think, assuming they have some sort of real training camp, the defense will be better than it was last year.  There is still free-agency signings going on, and we have an NFL draft in front of us.  Have faith.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Is this an opinion piece? Looking for some actual facts to support things being said. 
 

We stood still at best... and those teams who weren’t even close to our level (Over)spent some money... this means we won’t repeat as AFCE champions? 
 

Our biggest competition last year was Miami and they’ve done what... added a deep threat WR who averages 11 games per year over 4 years for a QB that averaged 6 Y/A... I’m shaking in my boots... especially after they got blown out by Matt Barkley for 2 quarters. 

Don't forget Miami went backwards in the QB dept - they lost Fitz.  They now have a QB that on the Bills would be fighting it out w Fromm and Davis to make our practice squad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I expect us to repeat as AFCE champs. But to the OP point - it will likely be harder. The teams in our division all appear to have gotten better. That is 6 games that will be tougher wins. On the flipside, as of now many of the other opponents look potentially soft: ATL, CAR, HOU, JAC, NO. Tough games include TB, TEN, KC, PIT, IND. So worse case you go 3-3 in division and 5-5 in the others = 8-8. Better case would be 4-2 in division and 6-4 = 10-6. Best case you go 6-0 again and only lose some tough road games at KC and TB, possibly one other and your at 13-3. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Vegas is probably thinking "The Bills lost their punter and return guy.....that's crippling to a team.  Wild Card at best".

 

 

 

No, that's what PFF is thinking.

*
Now, hondo in seattle, please don't take this the wrong way, but:

 

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Who has the best coaching staff and Qb...  thats your division winners.  Tua no shot.  Darnold no shot.  Cam no shot. 

Best coaching staff?  That's in Foxboro, by a mile.

 

Best QB?  That's in Orchard Park. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The defense struggled out of the gate last year because the NFL suspended OTA's on March 16, 2020 and then cancelled all of the preseason games. Milano got hurt early in the season and missed games. Edmunds injured his shoulder early, but played through it. The defense is going to better this year, returning to their 2019 form.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

I’m a Pats fan and I am 95% sure the Bills repeat and the Pats finish second and Phins third. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I expect us to repeat as AFCE champs. But to the OP point - it will likely be harder. The teams in our division all appear to have gotten better. That is 6 games that will be tougher wins. On the flipside, as of now many of the other opponents look potentially soft: ATL, CAR, HOU, JAC, NO. Tough games include TB, TEN, KC, PIT, IND. So worse case you go 3-3 in division and 5-5 in the others = 8-8. Better case would be 4-2 in division and 6-4 = 10-6. Best case you go 6-0 again and only lose some tough road games at KC and TB, possibly one other and your at 13-3. 

 

My thing is - Miami's defense vastly overperformed last year.  Their offense will get some boost - but I don't fear a defense that is so insanely turnover dependent.  It helped keep their tua offense afloat, but they got absolutely exposed in a must win week 17 game.  Tua will be better, but i think their defense will be worse.  The offenses they held under 20: Rams (their best game), 49ers (Jimmy G hurt mid-game), Jags, Patriots week 15, Bengals (no burrow), and NYJ twice.  15 turnovers across 7 games and they won all 7.  They were 3-6 with wins against LAC, LVR, ARI - with losses to bills x2, kc, seattle, NE, Denver.  

 

NE has added a lot of pieces, but i'm not sure that was necessarily to contend with and beat buffalo.  Their offense will be better with more weapons, and their defense added some front 7 talent.  But they didn't add major impact pieces either. 

 

The Jets were arguably the worst team in the league last year - they are probably starting over at QB.  I'm not considering them an option.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Unless Miami trades for Watson the Bills should be the considerable favorites. They will have by far the best QB situation and a strong overall team. The Pats should be improved but without a QB they have massive limitations. The Fins made very little efforts to improve via free agency but they have a ton of draft picks. Once again tough team but without a QB they are limited.

 

The Jets should be a bit tougher but are just starting a rebuild. Honestly barring a Watson trade I just don’t see any team being able to over come Josh with a solid supporting cast.

Even if they trade for Watson he’s probably not going to play for a bit! I can see 8 game suspension coming his way!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think while the path may have gotten somewhat tougher, in that some of the other teams in the division made bigger gains, I think the odds of the AFCE title are actually greater this year than last.

 

I think that because of the QB position.  I feel the Bills currently have the #1 and #2 ranked QBs in the division.  Last years achilles heal has been addressed.  If J Allen gets dinged for a few games, the Bills will probably still be favored.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...