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Not Sure We Will Repeat as AFCE Champs


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8 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This makes complete sense to me, actually.  I'm sure Beane did have all his spending meticulously planned out years ahead.  

 

But Covid did happen and we're hamstrung more than some other teams.  

 

Look, while I do think Beane could have done some things better, overall I'm happy with the guy.  But this is less about pointing fingers and more about observing that we need to get better this offseason and we're not.   Building a serviceable OL mostly out of affordable journeymen, signing Beasley, signing Diggs...  Bean's done a lot in previous free agency periods.  Not so much this year when more work needs to be done.

He’s done a lot given the resources available and the circumstances. Of course there is more work to be done... everyone agrees there.

 
With that being said, there is less work for Beane to do this off-season in terms of improving the Buffalo Bills than there was work to be done for Belichick improving the New England Patriots, or Grier improving the Dolphins or Douglas improving the Jets. 
 

Look at it this way... we had less money to spend because we had far less holes to fill. Money was already allocated towards building a competitive roster that ACTUALLY won games last year. The Jets, Patriots and Dolphins had money to spend because they didn’t have as many long term solutions across their roster to contribute to a winning football team. They’re spending money in an attempt to catch us... 
 

If we were like 8-8 last year and came into this year with no money to spend and Beane didn’t do anything to improve... yeah I’d be worried... but comparing what we’ve done this off-season to the other AFCE teams and the moves they HAD to make to TRY and get on level us isn’t really a fair or strong argument for the fact that we wouldn’t win the AFCE. 

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29 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Pats invested $38m a year in 3 offensive weapons (Agholor, Hunter, Jonnu) that combined average 200 less yards a season than what Diggs put up by himself last year alone.

 

So why are people so enamored with the Pats signings?

 

I'm not just ready to discount the Pats.

 

At 7-9 last season, they were average-ish, not awful.

 

They were hurt not just by Brady's departure but by all the Covid opt outs - most in the league.  They get most of those guys back.  

 

Their coach is considered by many to be the GOAT.  

 

And now they spend $200+ million plus in free agency.   Say what you want about their acquisitions, I'm not convinced that Belichick doesn't know what he's doing.  

 

With all that, there's still the QB issue.  Cam was bad last year.  But he's only 31 and the former NFL MVP.  While I can't see him returning to MVP form, he might be capable of playing better than what we saw in 2020.     

 

We're still better than the Pats.  But they narrowed the gap.  

 

 

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16 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

He’s done a lot given the resources available and the circumstances. Of course there is more work to be done... everyone agrees there.

 
With that being said, there is less work for Beane to do this off-season in terms of improving the Buffalo Bills than there was work to be done for Belichick improving the New England Patriots, or Grier improving the Dolphins or Douglas improving the Jets. 
 

Look at it this way... we had less money to spend because we had far less holes to fill. Money was already allocated towards building a competitive roster that ACTUALLY won games last year. The Jets, Patriots and Dolphins had money to spend because they didn’t have as many long term solutions across their roster to contribute to a winning football team. They’re spending money in an attempt to catch us... 
 

If we were like 8-8 last year and came into this year with no money to spend and Beane didn’t do anything to improve... yeah I’d be worried... but comparing what we’ve done this off-season to the other AFCE teams and the moves they HAD to make to TRY and get on level us isn’t really a fair or strong argument for the fact that we wouldn’t win the AFCE. 

 

You're probably making the best counter-arguments here.  

 

I guess I come from that mindset: if you're not getting better you're getting worse.  

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4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Pats.  They didn’t resolve the signal caller issue but Bill’s epic spending spree improved the rest of the roster.

 

Phins.  Tua – who Fitz seems to love – should be better his sophomore year.   To help, they went out and got Will Fuller.

 

Jets.  While they picked up a couple nice free agents defensive linemen, the best thing the Jets did this offseason was change out their entire coaching staff. 

 

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

While there were moments of excellence, no level of our D was consistently good.  And our offensive running attack was putrid.  None of those shortcomings have been addressed so far.

 

Beane did a nice job retaining our offensive linemen.  Sadly, though, they’re just not that good.  They don’t open holes in the running game.  And Daboll has to use TEs and RBs to help with pass pro.  Even with that help, we couldn’t protect Josh in KC. 

 

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

Fingers crossed –free agency isn’t over and we still have the draft. 

Careful! No realism allowed!

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1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

The team was never good at running the ball under daboll.  8th in rushing but 500 of the 2000 total came from the QB.  Most of allens rushing yards come on QB scrambles, so those are in a way pass plays - just like sacks.


Devin Singletary averaged 5.1 ypc and had nearly 800 yards in 12 games.  You really think that’s struggling?

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4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

I'm listening....

 

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

The Bills were an interesting team last year.  Despite the 13-3 record and AFC Championship game appearance, our guys only excelled in two areas: special teams and passing the ball.   Unfortunately, our ST unit lost its two best players: Roberts & Bojorquez. 

 

So we "got worse" because we traded a big-legged punter who could kick us out of trouble, but was usually unable to pin the other team deep (lots of touchbacks) for a reliable punter who excelled at pinning the other team inside their own 20, and because we moved on from a great return guy who averaged 27 yds on kickoff returns (vs if it's in the endzone, it comes out to the 25) and who varied between getting us great field position on some returns vs. getting us pinned inside our own 5 yd line on others (see Colts game)?

 

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

While the rest of the AFCE stepped up, we stood still at best and probably stepped back. 

 

You absolutely should not be sure we'll repeat as AFCE champs.   Every year is a new year.  Nothing is given.  Everything is earned.

 

Here's the thing though...when you're 13-3, the other teams have to step up to come even with you.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I'm not just ready to discount the Pats.

 

At 7-9 last season, they were average-ish, not awful.

 

They were hurt not just by Brady's departure but by all the Covid opt outs - most in the league.  They get most of those guys back.  

 

Their coach is considered by many to be the GOAT.  

 

And now they spend $200+ million plus in free agency.   Say what you want about their acquisitions, I'm not convinced that Belichick doesn't know what he's doing.  

 

With all that, there's still the QB issue.  Cam was bad last year.  But he's only 31 and the former NFL MVP.  While I can't see him returning to MVP form, he might be capable of playing better than what we saw in 2020.     

 

We're still better than the Pats.  But they narrowed the gap.  

 

 

 

Cam has exactly 2 good seasons on his resume in 10 years.  His rookie year and MVP year, hes not sniffed that kind of production in any other year.  I think its time for people to accept Cam Newtons MVP season was an anomaly and not close to his normal output.  

 

And his arm looked completely shot last year, not just struggling, like throwing balls in the dirt regularly.

 

And the only thing that comes to mind about the $200M spent in FA is Washington and Dan Snyder spending big bucks regularly to get no where.  

 

Its much scarier to say "$200M spent" then it is to look at who they spent it on.  I mean they are paying Neslon Agholor the same as Diggs.  This guy literally, without joking, would be at best 4th on the depth chart for the Bills and he is being paid to be there #1 WR.  This guy struggles to catch balls from Wentz and Carr, you think hes gonna drop less with inaccurate Cam throwing him the ball?  I mean Nelson is at best a low end #2 across the league, if that.  Now getting paid to be the lead dog for the Pats.  

 

Jonnu has never even reached 500 yards receiving in 4 years in the league, including the last 2 with a very good QB in Tannehill.  Hunter with Rivers his first 3 years and Herbert last year has never once hit 700 yards in a season.  Yet both Jonnu and Hunter are now tied as the 3rd highest paid TE's in the NFL behind only Kelce and Kittle.  Combined, they average literally 900 yards a season.  

 

Lets not forget, one of the key opt outs for that Pats Defense last year was Chung, and now he is again not coming back and retiring.  They over paid a bunch of guys on defense too.  

 

So what they did was spend a lot of money to replace guys with other guys who are now over paid and marginally better than what they had last year.  

 

I am not saying the Pats wont improve some, but I mean maybe 8-8.  This roster is not going to contend for 11+ wins this year, and our division winner will be amass 11+ wins.  Dolphins are clearly the biggest threat.  Jets I am not too worried about this upcoming season.  

 

If the Dolphins get Watson, we will have a dog fight for the division title as I think both us and them (with Watson) finish with 11 to 13 wins next year.  If they don't get Watson, we should decisively win the division again.  

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1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I guess I come from that mindset: if you're not getting better you're getting worse. 

Me too! I don’t disagree with this at all... not one bit. The good news is... our GM and HC have the exact same mindset. There without a doubt is still room for improvement... but improvement doesn’t have to come in the form of free agency. 
 

Would a big FA splash have been one way to improve this team? Absolutely. Is that the only way to improve this team? Absolutely not. 

I totally understand the need and want to see improvement... for it to be tangible. That’s what a feee agent signing is... it is SO much easier for everyone that way...
 

Where we are right now... a lot of the improvement is going to come from player development... and unless you’re lucky enough to be there every day while these guys are training and playing... it’s going to be a little bit of an unknown for fans until they step on the field. 
 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Cam has exactly 2 good seasons on his resume in 10 years.  His rookie year and MVP year, hes not sniffed that kind of production in any other year.  I think its time for people to accept Cam Newtons MVP season was an anomaly and not close to his normal output.  

 

And his arm looked completely shot last year, not just struggling, like throwing balls in the dirt regularly.

 

And the only thing that comes to mind about the $200M spent in FA is Washington and Dan Snyder spending big bucks regularly to get no where.  

 

Its much scarier to say "$200M spent" then it is to look at who they spent it on.  I mean they are paying Neslon Agholor the same as Diggs.  This guy literally, without joking, would be at best 4th on the depth chart for the Bills and he is being paid to be there #1 WR.  This guy struggles to catch balls from Wentz and Carr, you think hes gonna drop less with inaccurate Cam throwing him the ball?  I mean Nelson is at best a low end #2 across the league, if that.  Now getting paid to be the lead dog for the Pats.  

 

Jonnu has never even reached 500 yards receiving in 4 years in the league, including the last 2 with a very good QB in Tannehill.  Hunter with Rivers his first 3 years and Herbert last year has never once hit 700 yards in a season.  Yet both Jonnu and Hunter are now tied as the 3rd highest paid TE's in the NFL behind only Kelce and Kittle.  Combined, they average literally 900 yards a season.  

 

Lets not forget, one of the key opt outs for that Pats Defense last year was Chung, and now he is again not coming back and retiring.  They over paid a bunch of guys on defense too.  

 

So what they did was spend a lot of money to replace guys with other guys who are now over paid and marginally better than what they had last year.  

 

I am not saying the Pats wont improve some, but I mean maybe 8-8.  This roster is not going to contend for 11+ wins this year, and our division winner will be amass 11+ wins.  Dolphins are clearly the biggest threat.  Jets I am not too worried about this upcoming season.  

 

If the Dolphins get Watson, we will have a dog fight for the division title as I think both us and them (with Watson) finish with 11 to 13 wins next year.  If they don't get Watson, we should decisively win the division again.  

 

 

QB is the big differentiator right now.  Our D isn't elite.  Our running attack is far from elite.  But Allen is much, much better than any other QB in the AFCE.

 

Fitz says Tua "is going to do great things."  I'm doubtful but maybe he's right.  Or maybe the Fins get Watson and he stays out of jail.

 

And maybe the Pats find a QB.  They're suddenly competitive if they do.  

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Who has the best coaching staff and Qb...  thats your division winners.  Tua no shot.  Darnold no shot.  Cam no shot. 

That’s the way it’s been looking to me 👍🏼

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5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I’m usually not a Negative Nancy but today let me be that guy.

 

The AFCE will be harder this year.  The Pats, Phins, and Jets all got better while the Bills got worse.

 

Or the following:

  • Sanders delivers as expected.
  • The Bills address the run game, and add a real threat at RB.
  • They add a legit pass rusher.
  • Epenesa, or Oliver (or both) have a breakout season.
  • Edmunds, or Milano (or both) stay healthy.

If one of those five things occur, the Bills remain at the top of the AFCE.

If two of those things happen, the Bills are better than last season.

If three of those things happen, the Bills are a lot better than last season.

If four of those things happen, the Bills dominate the AFC.

If all five of those things happen? ...dang!!!

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2 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Careful! No realism allowed!

you started a thread about how you were, "depressed" that this staff wouldn't be able to win playoff games.  

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I stopped reading after the part everyone in the AFCE got better BUT the Bills got worse 

we’re not even done with free agency and we still have the draft,

but I agree with your first sentence 

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3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

IMHO, we're not stacked.

 

Our D was ranked 14th in yards allowed, 16th in points allowed.  Hopefully Star's return helps.  But based on last years performance, I wouldn't say our D is stacked.


All our RBs put together produced  a mere 1301 yards.  Our RB room is not stacked.  

 

Our offensive line often gets TE and RB help - far more than the NFL average - to protect Josh.  This is despite the fact most of our linemen are better at pass pro than run blocking.  Our OL is not stacked.  

 

Knox is our best TE and he often drops balls and often whiffs on blocks.  Our TE room is not stacked.  

 

Our QB and WR rooms, on the other hand, are undeniably stacked.  

 

As Happy Days suggested, maybe I should have said we're not ready yet to compete with the Chiefs.  Until our opponents find QBs, we're still the best team in the AFCE - though it'll be tougher this year.  

 

 

There's a very good chance that our defense last year was a fluke--that we were hit harder by the inability to play together. Star will likely help, but we also have a bunch of players on the ascent, and will likely not have two star linebackers playing with one arm most of the season. In any case, I suspect we'll be closer to the 3rd of 2017 and 2018 than the 16th of 2019, and have many reasons to feel that way.

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