Texans releasing JJ Watt

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It does seem to me that Alan looks to go to Dawson Knox quite a bit so I think the answer to that is yes

 

He was 6th in targets last year, behind 8 games of John Brown, Gabe Davis playing part time and DEVIN SINGLETARY. 
 

He had 10 more targets than Isaiah McKenzie. Who plays like 20% of offensive snaps.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

[FireChans]

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Ertz the 4th option 😂😂

You think less? I could easily see top 3 targets next year being Diggs/Beasley and then Davis and Ertz fighting for 3.

[Ya Digg?]

25 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

It certainly can’t all be pinned on him but he also didn’t exactly fix it.  That’s a big ask, I get it, but the ask isn’t as big as his ego.  I think he was fine sharing the spotlight with Watson because he is the QB, but Hopkins was a star in the rise and boom, gone.  
 

That was BOB I get it but Watt has been the Sagittarius A* of the Texans galaxy, and everyone knows it.  Maybe BOB knew that they can’t have three sheriffs in town.  No way Watt goes somewhere else and doesn’t get major press before even meeting the guys on his team.  Our team and culture has been built slowly with a strong foundation.  He is the center of the universe IHHO.  I don’t see how that works with him coming in and being the center of everything.

So I’m following what you’re saying, but I do believe we are looking at this COMPLETELY differently. If the Bills have this amazing locker room chemistry that you don’t want to break up, there’s no way Watt would be able to disrupt that. There’s too much leadership on this team for that to happen. From Beane to McDermott, then the players-Allen, Hyde, Diggs, Hughes, Poyer, etc. perhaps you have read/heard/seen things about Watt I haven’t...I have always heard he plays hard for his team, works hard, ex-teammates always talk about how great a teammate he is. Does he have an ego? Sure-but so does every other player in the NFL. He is ring chasing at this point, I don’t think he has plans of coming in and being a disruption. 
 

Again I can see where a fan could possibly be worried about taking on a person who has Watt’s influence, but IMO he is definitely worth the risk

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It does seem to me that Alan looks to go to Dawson Knox quite a bit so I think the answer to that is yes

 

Average of 3.3 targets per game last season, average of 3.6 targets per game this season.

Basically 2 receptions/game each season.

 

 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You think less? I could easily see top 3 targets next year being Diggs/Beasley and then Davis and Ertz fighting for 3.

He’s immediately 1A. Beasley shouldn’t be getting anything over 4 targets/game in this offense.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Zack Ertz and JJ Watt's wives play together. Would be a nice little side story if they ended up playing together somewhere. 

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mike Vrabel was the Texans DC from 2017 to 2018. If Watt liked him as a coach that gives the Titans the edge. I would bet on them right now, followed by the Packers, followed by the Bills. 

I don’t see him signing in division. Too weird.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

They won’t.

 

Even if we acquired Ertz. They will be a 3/4 option at best.

 

Diggs is the engine. Beasley is the caboose. More weapons are nice but no other player is putting up more than 600 yards if those two are healthy all year.

The bolded simply isn't true. Brown easily would've put up over 600 had he not missed 7+ games. Davis had 599 yards this year as a rookie, do you believe his stats won't Increase with additional experience and game time on the field?

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

The bolded simply isn't true. Brown easily would've put up over 600 had he not missed 7+ games. Davis had 599 yards this year as a rookie, do you believe his stats won't Increase with additional experience and game time on the field?

I'm talking about a 4th player. Like if we added Ertz, I wouldn't expect Gabe and Ertz to both have >600 yards if Beasley and Diggs get their targets.

Edited February 14, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan5121]

1 minute ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

The bolded simply isn't true. Brown easily would've put up over 600 had he not missed 7+ games. Davis had 599 yards this year as a rookie, do you believe his stats won't Increase with additional experience and game time on the field?

Yeah, I don’t get that argument. If you want to argue that Ertz isn’t good, go for it. But if you think more weapons won’t help, I don’t know what to say. Look at TB. It’s not as if all their receivers had 1000 yards. But the point of all their weapons is you don’t know who to plan against. Double Godwin, Evans has a big day. Double Evans, Godwin goes off. Try to take away both, Miller or Brown step up.

Here, I’d say we are doing really well as far as weapons go. But we can be better. Maybe it’s a better receiving threat out of the backfield. Maybe it is a TE. Maybe it’s more speed or more speed with size as well.  I don’t have the answers, but adding talent is never a bad thing. 

[FireChans]

Just now, billsfan5121 said:

Yeah, I don’t get that argument. If you want to argue that Ertz isn’t good, go for it. But if you think more weapons won’t help, I don’t know what to say. Look at TB. It’s not as if all their receivers had 1000 yards. But the point of all their weapons is you don’t know who to plan against. Double Godwin, Evans has a big day. Double Evans, Godwin goes off. Try to take away both, Miller or Brown step up.

Here, I’d say we are doing really well as far as weapons go. But we can be better. Maybe it’s a better receiving threat out of the backfield. Maybe it is a TE. Maybe it’s more speed or more speed with size as well.  I don’t have the answers, but adding talent is never a bad thing. 

Incredibly, nobody made this argument.

[JGMcD2]

39 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He’s immediately 1A. Beasley shouldn’t be getting anything over 4 targets/game in this offense.

Huh? 
 

Beasley shouldn’t get more than 4 Tgt/G? Explain? 

[John from Riverside]

51 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He was 6th in targets last year, behind 8 games of John Brown, Gabe Davis playing part time and DEVIN SINGLETARY. 
 

He had 10 more targets than Isaiah McKenzie. Who plays like 20% of offensive snaps.

But he WAS involved......was this a scheme issue or a trust issue.

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He’s immediately 1A. Beasley shouldn’t be getting anything over 4 targets/game in this offense.

You mean 1B or is this the beginning of your "Ertz >>>>> Diggs" hot take?

[FireChans]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

But he WAS involved......was this a scheme issue or a trust issue.

It's a "Dawson Knox isn't as good as everybody else" issue.

[John from Riverside]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Average of 3.3 targets per game last season, average of 3.6 targets per game this season.

Basically 2 receptions/game each season.

 

 

I just dont know if that was a problem with scheme or confidence in Dawson Knox.

 

When I look at these things now I look at what do we do to get past the Chiefs......it is a lot harder to play "sticky defense" on a quality TE

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 minute ago, billsfan5121 said:

Yeah, I don’t get that argument. If you want to argue that Ertz isn’t good, go for it. But if you think more weapons won’t help, I don’t know what to say. Look at TB. It’s not as if all their receivers had 1000 yards. But the point of all their weapons is you don’t know who to plan against. Double Godwin, Evans has a big day. Double Evans, Godwin goes off. Try to take away both, Miller or Brown step up.

Here, I’d say we are doing really well as far as weapons go. But we can be better. Maybe it’s a better receiving threat out of the backfield. Maybe it is a TE. Maybe it’s more speed or more speed with size as well.  I don’t have the answers, but adding talent is never a bad thing. 

Especially when that talent is only 30 and is better than our current player at that position. I don't want to make a trade for him, but if he becomes a FA take a shot at him. He also brings with him Super Bowl winning experience.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

It's a "Dawson Knox isn't as good as everybody else" issue.

I agree with that......so lets get better

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Whoaoa, Confident!  Any basis for this?

 

Beane did say don't expect a "splash" in trades/FA this year

Just to clarify a little, Beane said "I would not anticipate any blockbuster moves of Stef(on) Diggs type". 

 

To me, he's just keeping expectations low.  It doesn't mean he's not going to try.  It's carefully worded GM speak.  If/when he lands someone he will say it was unanticipated.

 

And with JJ there would be no draft compensation involved.  And since Watt was released after Beane's quote, the "unanticipated" clause applies.

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

The bolded simply isn't true. Brown easily would've put up over 600 had he not missed 7+ games. Davis had 599 yards this year as a rookie, do you believe his stats won't Increase with additional experience and game time on the field?

You can’t just create extra targets? The range is somewhere between roughly 950 - 1100 plays on offense. We were at 1034 plays. Let’s say we hit that upper limit and run 1100 plays.
 

With a 59/41 run pass split that’s an extra 39 targets to go around... really not that many spread across an entire offense... but the spread would like look something like the current target share... so guys are picking up around 5-6 extra targets on average. 

 

Stats could very well increase, but it means someone else has their numbers declining. If Brown is healthy for 7 more game, Davis’ numbers are not the same. 

[BillsFan2313]

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Average of 3.3 targets per game last season, average of 3.6 targets per game this season.

Basically 2 receptions/game each season.

 

 

 

It probably because he drops every other pass

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

You mean 1B or is this the beginning of your "Ertz >>>>> Diggs" hot take?

Yes 1B that was a mistype

 

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

Huh? 
 

Beasley shouldn’t get more than 4 Tgt/G? Explain? 

if we have Ertz he is the second best weapon on offense. Assuming a more balanced offense w Allen averaging 32 attempts/game or so, I would give Ertz and Diggs 14-18 targets between the two of them, 10-12 between the rest of the wideouts, and 4 or so to the RBs. That’s where this offense would be operating at efficiency imo.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

You can’t just create extra targets? The range is somewhere between roughly 950 - 1100 plays on offense. We were at 1034 plays. Let’s say we hit that upper limit and run 1100 plays.
 

With a 59/41 run pass split that’s an extra 39 targets to go around... really not that many spread across an entire offense... but the spread would like look something like the current target share... so guys are picking up around 5-6 extra targets on average. 

 

Stats could very well increase, but it means someone else has their numbers declining. If Brown is healthy for 7 more game, Davis’ numbers are not the same. 

For some context, in the 2020 NFL season, of the top 10 passing offenses by yards, only one team had their 4th receiver >600 yards. The Dallas Cowboys.

[klos63]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

It certainly can’t all be pinned on him but he also didn’t exactly fix it.  That’s a big ask, I get it, but the ask isn’t as big as his ego.  I think he was fine sharing the spotlight with Watson because he is the QB, but Hopkins was a star in the rise and boom, gone.  
 

That was BOB I get it but Watt has been the Sagittarius A* of the Texans galaxy, and everyone knows it.  Maybe BOB knew that they can’t have three sheriffs in town.  No way Watt goes somewhere else and doesn’t get major press before even meeting the guys on his team.  Our team and culture has been built slowly with a strong foundation.  He is the center of the universe IHHO.  I don’t see how that works with him coming in and being the center of everything.

what do you think would happen if he signed here? What bad things would come about from him getting a lot of attention?

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

if we have Ertz he is the second best weapon on offense. Assuming a more balanced offense w Allen averaging 32 attempts/game or so, I would give Ertz and Diggs 14-18 targets between the two of them, 10-12 between the rest of the wideouts, and 4 or so to the RBs. That’s where this offense would be operating at efficiency imo.

By what metric is Ertz a better weapon than Beasley? Genuinely asking... like how are you making the determination? 

[klos63]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think another relevant point is whether any tight end is going to hog targets in this offense? 

 

I think the issue in using Ertz over Knox is that when we need our TE, Ertz will be there and not so sure about Knox.  It may only be 2 or 3 targets per game, but they could be significant. If Allen has all day to throw again, Diggs will again get 150 receptions, but if not, the TE may need to bail him out more often. That's the argument for Ertz, I would think.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

12 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

You can’t just create extra targets? The range is somewhere between roughly 950 - 1100 plays on offense. We were at 1034 plays. Let’s say we hit that upper limit and run 1100 plays.
 

With a 59/41 run pass split that’s an extra 39 targets to go around... really not that many spread across an entire offense... but the spread would like look something like the current target share... so guys are picking up around 5-6 extra targets on average. 

 

Stats could very well increase, but it means someone else has their numbers declining. If Brown is healthy for 7 more game, Davis’ numbers are not the same. 

So Davis wouldn't be able to do more with his targets as he gains experience? My guess is he could do more with increased time with Josh and experience on the field with less targets. He also won't see 2 targets or less in 4 of 6 games like he did at the start of the season, he's not a rookie anymore. His targets will go up, not down. If it takes away from others, it may not be such a bad thing. He averaged more yards per catch, by a pretty good margin, than any other starting WR on the team.

Edited February 14, 2021 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS
Spelling errors

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

By what metric is Ertz a better weapon than Beasley? Genuinely asking... like how are you making the determination? 

I mean the replacement value is higher. I don't know if Ertz is a better tight end than Beasley a slot, I'm saying the difference in quality that Ertz upgrading Knox at TE1 would make is >>> than the value of WR2/3

[whatdrought]

4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Why wouldn’t you want this...

 

 

I want Watt so bad. He would just open so much up for Eddie... 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Zack Ertz and JJ Watt's wives play together. Would be a nice little side story if they ended up playing together somewhere. 

Think we should be putting the full court press on Ertz too?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

I think the issue in using Ertz over Knox is that when we need our TE, Ertz will be there and not so sure about Knox.  It may only be 2 or 3 targets per game, but they could be significant. If Allen has all day to throw again, Diggs will again get 150 receptions, but if not, the TE may need to bail him out more often. That's the argument for Ertz, I would think.

 

For sure. I wasn't talking about Ertz. Ertz is really a tight end in name only. He is a big slot. He doesn't really block and he is in the slot or outside much more than he is in line. If the Bills were lining up Diggs and Davis wide and Beas in one slot, Ertz in the other that is a pretty awesome 4 wide. But I kind of see Ertz as the alternative to John Brown in that sense (in terms of salary cost). I'm not sure any in line dual threat tight end is gonna hog targets. They would be a complimentary player and red zone guy. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

58 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Think we should be putting the full court press on Ertz too?

I think Ertz ends up in Seattle. I'm actually not that crazy about spending on a TE. I think teams are best developing their own TE. I wouldn't mind spending a low asset on a quality TE. But I want to draft and develop one. I think Beane's comments were more of a message to our young TEs. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[psuscott16]

35 page Watt thread and half is about Dawson Knox and playing time. 🤦‍♂️

[Rc2catch]

5 minutes ago, psuscott16 said:

35 page Watt thread and half is about Dawson Knox and playing time. 🤦‍♂️

Did you know watt has 5 career touchdowns? Same amount as Knox? Watt can rush the passer and sub in for Knox too. Dual threat

[Steptide]

Not sure why some fans want him so bad. We could probably draft a guy that would have the same or better impact and cost less, and probably stay healthier. I'm not totally against getting him, but I'm not dying to get him either 

[3rdand12]

7 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

He won’t be cheaper 

had hoped the injury thing might help
 and you are aware Beanes a Wizard , I hope

JJWatt has earned every bit of his accolades, and then some.
If Bills are able to bring him in ? Sweet. I just expected he might got to Steelers. 
Now it looks more like Packers ??

1 hour ago, psuscott16 said:

35 page Watt thread and half is about Dawson Knox and playing time. 🤦‍♂️

multi tasking

3 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Not sure why some fans want him so bad. We could probably draft a guy that would have the same or better impact and cost less, and probably stay healthier. I'm not totally against getting him, but I'm not dying to get him either 

dude is a for real legend.
No Mario Williams though

[Bronxbomber21]

I kinda want JJ on the Dline its would add a much needed nastiness and help the 4 man pass rush alot and he can probably help Oliver an AJ

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

had hoped the injury thing might help
 and you are aware Beanes a Wizard , I hope

JJWatt has earned every bit of his accolades, and then some.
If Bills are able to bring him in ? Sweet. I just expected he might got to Steelers. 
Now it looks more like Packers ??

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/j-j-watt-to-green-bay-packers-source-reveals-likelihood-of-nfl-homecoming

 

This what you're seeing or you got more?

[3rdand12]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/j-j-watt-to-green-bay-packers-source-reveals-likelihood-of-nfl-homecoming

 

This what you're seeing or you got more?

This is plenty

 Thanks Hap

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

had hoped the injury thing might help
 and you are aware Beanes a Wizard , I hope

JJWatt has earned every bit of his accolades, and then some.
If Bills are able to bring him in ? Sweet. I just expected he might got to Steelers. 
Now it looks more like Packers ??

multi tasking

dude is a for real legend.
No Mario Williams though  lol