Chris Simms Game Analysis: Defense not as bad as I thought + illusion of blitzing

[Thurman#1]

 

 

Re: Tannehill's very good play:  "He never leaves yards on the field, that's my thing about him, he maximizes opportunities to the maximum (sic) almost every week. And that's where he's really impressive. And last night, with that game, the stats and numbers aren't going to look like they're amazing, but as you break down the game, first off they were very fortunate to get the short field a few times. That set them up for some scoring.  ... But they were going to have to throw the ball to score some touchdowns and do that. Because Buffalo was selling out to stop the run."

 

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(6:20)  "What you don't really realize is the Bills defense really played a little bit better than I wanted to give them credit for when I turned off the TV last night. And then when I watched the film today, I go, 'There were some things that I really liked about what they did.' "

 

"They were put in some tough spots. They really were, by their offense and the punt return and all those type of things, but what I did like best is that they were not ... running game has been a little bit of an issue for them. They were not gashed in the running game. Now, did it compromise them in the pass game? Definitely. And am I still worried about that with Buffalo? Yes.

 

"I mean Buffalo kind of has kind of corner dysfunction."

 

Paul Burmeister:  "Especially without White."

 

"Right. And he's not there, it's a pretty average group, to where I worry about them. So we always talk about when a team does something elite, so it forces other teams into having to do something. And it forced Buffalo to have to put Josh Norman and Taron Johnson and those guys on islands against AJ Brown, and they're just not going to win those matchups."

 

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(12:10)  "The Titans defensive game plan was awesome, it really was. I can't say enough about it. They played coverage the whole night. They ran exotic zone coverages. Mike Vrabel obviously had a little bead on the offense. Again, this is a New England offense. Mike Vrabel's done pretty damn good against New England so far, he's 2-0 since he's been the coach of the Tennessee Titans. And stymied their offense both times. He stymied Buffalo's offense a little last year when Buffalo went down there and won a close game.

 

"And this is not how the Titans have been playing the first few games of the year. They've been playing a little more in-your-face, man-to-man, we're going to cover you and make you earn it. But I think he realized, "Woh, we're not going to match up with this group. We can't cover this group all over the field, with what they're doing. And not with this big sucker, 17, back there. 'Cause even if we do cover them, he buys time and people pop open and all of that.

 

"So very impressive from that standpoint with dropping people into coverage and the illusion of blitzing."

 

Paul Burmeister: "Which leads to that confusion that you want the quarterback to have for half a second."

 

"Half a second! ... Teams are over-blitzing. ... I'm gonna show you teams that blitz and they get gashed and then teams that play coverage right now are proving to be the better defenses. They are."

 

 

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"Really a very interesting look inside. Around 18:00 he talks about how the fake snap counts aren't just to try to draw guys Offside, but also to get the D to show who's blitzing, so the QB can then get them in the perfect play. He said that Vrabel appeared to have coached his guys that he'd rather see them start half a second late than to flinch early and give the whole defensive plan away. "They look like it's Cover Two and they don't flinch from Cover Two. Until "set hut," and the ball is snapped. And all of a sudden then it becomes Cover Three, or it becomes man-to-man with a robber in the middle, or whatever else. That is the ***** that confuses a quarterback for a split second.

 

"Or then the other thing we were talking about like, creative blitzes where it still ends up only being a four-man rush, where here's a nickel cover corner, where usually the nickel cover corner is told, "You're blitzing here, right?" They can't help it usually. So teh quarterback does the dummy snap count or even gets toward the end of the snap count and [the blitzer] is flinching because they can't wait to blitz. And Vrabel has told them, "Hey, you showing it and just being a split second faster is really ruining it. Don't do that.

 

"We want to surprise them so they're not schematically capable of doing it. And they're great at telling their corners and their blitzers, "Don't even flinch. Just look at your guy, and when the ball is snapped, I don't care if you get off the ball like a split second later than the guy who's told the whole world he's coming. We want to get there because they're not schematically ready for it."

 

"And that's how they got a lot of free runners last night on Josh Allen."

 

 

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They do a great little breakdown on what happened with the second INT also. Around 21:33. Says Butler duped him, faking a move up to cover Beasley on his break but then backs up. Says he thought Allen didn't read the body language the right way because he didn't put mustard on the throw, he thought that guy wasn't going to be there.

 

Also went nuts about the second TD to Yeldon and what an insane throw that was for Allen

 

And said the Titans weren't respecting Singletary, "Please, run it."

 

 

 

Great stuff.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Thurman#1

[CSBill]

Good analysis of the good analysis, Thurman.

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, CSBill said:

Good analysis of the good analysis, Thurman.

 

 

Hmm, maybe I need to go back and edit in quotation marks.

 

I didn't do any analysis, really. Just typing. But thanks. It took me quite a while to type it all up.

[machine gun kelly]

Thanks Thurmon.

[CSBill]

After watching it, I come away not feeling as bad about the game. It was clear the Bills were geared up on D to stop the run, which left an already depleted, and maybe not as good as we thought, linebacker and secondary groups very vulnerable. Tannehill did a great job of exploiting that.

 

And on offense, it was equally clear the Titans were not going to let the Bills receivers run deep and beat them with long pass plays. Okay, understand that and take the short stuff--which the Bills adjusted to in the 2nd half, but so many other things conspired to not allow that strategy to play out.

 

And as much as we don't want to think it, Simms is right, our running-backs have not been very good this year. I have always felt that Singletary is a better compliment back than featured back. Yeldon was the best Bills back on the field Tuesday. He deserves more snaps. And, yes, go after Bell !!!! Defenses will fear him more than anyone we currently have.

Edited October 15, 2020 by CSBill

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Looks in thread.  Sees no sign of krf139 trashing Simms.  Will check back later. 😁

[GunnerBill]

Was pretty much what I said on Tuesday night. We lost some 1 on 1s on the outside with AJ Brown. There is nothing we can do about that. We have one guy who might be able to cover Brown (and even that is not a given - AJ is already a top 5 or 6 route runner in the league IMO) and he wasn't out there on Tuesday. We did a reasonable job on Henry but we got play actioned to death - which has been a problem for us 4 weeks in a row now. We need Matt Milano healthy and we need Tremaine Edmunds to play better.

 

Oh and we also need not to give up 4 short fields and give up roughing the passer penalties when we have held a team to a FG on 3rd down.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

That's not Ahmed, it's Paul Bermeister. Good stuff thanks for posting!

 

I wonder if Derm and Frazier can learn a bit about disguising from watching Vrabel. I know we already disguise fairly well.

[dave mcbride]

This is awesome. Thanks.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

That's not Ahmed, it's Paul Bermeister. Good stuff thanks for posting!

 

I wonder if Derm and Frazier can learn a bit about disguising from watching Vrabel. I know we already disguise fairly well.

 

 

Doh!!! Thanks for the correction, I'll go back and change the original post.

[dave mcbride]

The stuff Simms says about blitzing strikes me as totally true. The fifth man-only blitzer is functionally useless and only gives the qb a free shot.

I never thought about it, but one of the reasons offenses are so dominant is that the qbs who can’t diagnoses blitzes are being run out of the league. Just about all of them are good at it now, and just about all of them understand tempo and getting lined up quickly to give themselves the time necessary to diagnose who is probably blitzing.

Edited October 15, 2020 by dave mcbride

[thebandit27]

This reinforces my opinion that the difference in the game was the 2nd INT. We score on that drive and it’s 21-17 with the ball on TEN 25 (presumably after a touchback) instead of 21-10 on the BUF 12.

[dave mcbride]

Man is Simms down the Bills’ RBs and running game in general. Indeed, after the game, McDermott basically said it was terrible that they couldn’t run better than they did against a D playing coverage/cover 2 all night. I wonder if we suffer from the illusion of Singletary being good rather than a mere change of pace back who is quick but not fast in space. There are a lot of negative plays with him and he is not fast enough to break really long runs. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Hmm, maybe I need to go back and edit in quotation marks.

 

I didn't do any analysis, really. Just typing. But thanks. It took me quite a while to type it all up.

 

You did a great summation.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Man is Simms down the Bills’ RBs and running game in general. Indeed, after the game, McDermott basically said it was terrible that they couldn’t run better than they did against a D playing coverage/cover 2 all night. I wonder if we suffer from the illusion of Singletary being good rather than a mere change of pace back who is quick but not fast in space. There are a lot of negative plays with him and he is not fast enough to break really long runs. 

This is the reason why I wanted a speed back in the draft. Need someone to complement Motor with the skill set he doesn’t have.

[FireChans]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

This is the reason why I wanted a speed back in the draft. Need someone to complement Motor with the skill set he doesn’t have.

Poooooooka

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Poooooooka

I actually wanted Darrynton Evans

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

This reinforces my opinion that the difference in the game was the 2nd INT. We score on that drive and it’s 21-17 with the ball on TEN 25 (presumably after a touchback) instead of 21-10 on the BUF 12.

 

I don't think you can say one play was "the difference", though that's the backbreaker.

 

There were about 3 plays in the game that made a huge difference.  The deflection off Roberts for the INT/TD - eh, I wish Roberts hadn't have been there, but stuff happens.

We came right back and scored.  All good.

 

At the end of the first, the Bills D forced a 3 and out.  Offense then went 3 and out with an uncharacteristic drop by Diggs.  But giving up a 40 yd punt return to put the Titans close to scoring position on the Buffalo 30 was killer, and giving up a pass on 3rd and 20 to let them convert was awful.  They were backed up out of FG range.  At that point it's 14 to 7.  We got a FG on the ensuing drive.  Different game I think if we go into the half 14 to 10 or 17 to 10 vs 21-10

 

I don't think the Special Teams mistakes get enough "Love" around here.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

This is the reason why I wanted a speed back in the draft. Need someone to complement Motor with the skill set he doesn’t have.

Completely agree.  They drafted Moss to play the Gore role in the 2018 offense.  Those days are gone.  Speed back is huge priority.

[fergie's ire]

That "illusion of Blitzing" is something the Giants did well in the Super Bowl to prevent the Pats perfect season.  A lot gets made of them being able to bring pressure with 4 and some say that not many teams have the personnel to do that.  While that is partly true, and the Giants had great pass rushers, they also used that illusion of blitzing.  They ran some zone blitzes and just enough blitzes for the offense to look for it, and I remember seeing a lot of Patriot lineman blocking air...waiting for a blitz to come that didn't...while somewhere else along the line a rusher was getting to Brady.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

This reinforces my opinion that the difference in the game was the 2nd INT. We score on that drive and it’s 21-17 with the ball on TEN 25 (presumably after a touchback) instead of 21-10 on the BUF 12.

 

To me the difference was the 3 and out with 4 minutes left.  Gave a team that doesn't really take a lot of shots enough time to get 7.  Also - they had a 90 yard drive... 14 or 17-10 is much better going into half than 21-10.  Failures there by both sides of the ball.

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

To me the difference was the 3 and out with 4 minutes left.  Gave a team that doesn't really take a lot of shots enough time to get 7.  Also - they had a 90 yard drive... 14 or 17-10 is much better going into half than 21-10.  Failures there by both sides of the ball.

And all started with a bad call on first down.  One yard runs put pressure on the next two plays (shadow of goal line).  After the Bills pinned them deep, first play was offside and there was the difference.  1st & 5 vs. 2nd & 9 (as Tennessee was running Henry).

 

Actually the D was bad & has been all season.  Shutting down the Jets is no big deal.

Edited October 15, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And all started with a bad call on first down.  One yard runs put pressure on the next two plays (shadow of goal line).  After the Bills pinned them deep, first paly was offside and there was the difference.  1st & 5 vs. 2nd & 9 (as Tennessee was running Henry).

 

Actually the D was bad & has been all season.  Shutting down the Jets is no big deal.

 

Thats the thing - mistakes all over (drops, presnap penalties, etc) and they lost.  They know they can't do that against KC and have a chance.

 

Hell, they can play really well this week and still get beat.  KC is that good.

[Charles Romes]

There seems to be a consensus that Singletary has gone from emerging superstar to bust.  The tape does not lie.  He has looked easy to handle basically all year.  

[MJS]

Before the game I said here that it's ok if Henry has a big game. Just stop Tannehill. Hit him, intercept him, make him move, and contain him.

 

This league is not about the running game anymore. If you stop the pass there is no way teams can beat you (within reason).

 

I would have much rather seen the Bills take the Titan's approach on defense. Drop into coverage. Don't blitz a lot. Disguise coverages. We were out our top two corners and our best coverage linebacker. Yet we were still blitzing and crowding the box and leaving our depleted secondary on islands.

 

But even if we did that we still probably would have lost given all of the mental errors that happened on special teams and offense.

46 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

There seems to be a consensus that Singletary has gone from emerging superstar to bust.  The tape does not lie.  He has looked easy to handle basically all year.  

Not true. He played really well against the Raiders. Even before that game he had a good yards per carry average.

 

He wasn't used much because the Bills were behind and needed to air it out. Singletary is a good running back.

 

People throw around the term bust WAY too much. The guy has a down game and all the sudden he is a bust?

[Nihilarian]

18 minutes ago, MJS said:

Not true. He played really well against the Raiders. Even before that game he had a good yards per carry average.

 

He wasn't used much because the Bills were behind and needed to air it out. Singletary is a good running back.

 

People throw around the term bust WAY too much. The guy has a down game and all the sudden he is a bust?

I agree.

 

Plus the Bills no longer have a fullback and the Titans were keying on Singletary. Titans game, Bills 22 rushes vs 41 pass attempts.

 

Singletary did have a not so good game against the Raiders, 18 rushes for 58 yards a 3.1 YPC avg. HOWEVER, against that Rams top five defense 13 carries, 71 yards, a 5.5 YPC AVG. 

 

Currently Buffalo is 25th in rushing attempts, 28th in rushing yards. The Bills simply aren't making much of a commitment to the run game in my view. At least not like they are to the passing game. If only the Bills had a run game commitment like the Titans...Singletary had the same YPC AVG last season as Derrick Henry. JMO

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

To me the difference was the 3 and out with 4 minutes left.  Gave a team that doesn't really take a lot of shots enough time to get 7.  Also - they had a 90 yard drive... 14 or 17-10 is much better going into half than 21-10.  Failures there by both sides of the ball.

 

Don't overlook the impact of ST giving up that 40 yd punt return with 2 minutes left in the 1st, forcing the D to defend starting at the Bills 30 and leading to a Titans TD.

 

Prior to that ST miscue, it was a tied game.  After, it was 14-7. 

 

We also had 2 drives starting from our 9 yd line, not a miscue exactly and we need to sustain long drives, but no help from ST either.

 

43 minutes ago, MJS said:

Before the game I said here that it's ok if Henry has a big game. Just stop Tannehill. Hit him, intercept him, make him move, and contain him.

This league is not about the running game anymore. If you stop the pass there is no way teams can beat you (within reason).

 

And yet, if we let Henry grind it out and hang 200 yds on us, everyone would be all "Bills lost because they can't stop the run"

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Don't overlook the impact of ST giving up that 40 yd punt return with 2 minutes left in the 1st, forcing the D to defend starting at the Bills 30 and leading to a Titans TD.

 

Prior to that ST miscue, it was a tied game.  After, it was 14-7. 

 

We also had 2 drives starting from our 9 yd line, not a miscue exactly and we need to sustain long drives, but no help from ST either.

 

 

And yet, if we let Henry grind it out and hang 200 yds on us, everyone would be all "Bills lost because they can't stop the run"

 

 

 

Yeah - they let one go and it was downed at like the 3.  The others were a FC and a loss.  13.7 yard average on the year for roberts too, so he's actually been really solid returning punts.

 

The 40 yard return was a dagger.  

Edited October 15, 2020 by dneveu

[Charles Romes]

48 minutes ago, MJS said:

Before the game I said here that it's ok if Henry has a big game. Just stop Tannehill. Hit him, intercept him, make him move, and contain him.

 

This league is not about the running game anymore. If you stop the pass there is no way teams can beat you (within reason).

 

I would have much rather seen the Bills take the Titan's approach on defense. Drop into coverage. Don't blitz a lot. Disguise coverages. We were out our top two corners and our best coverage linebacker. Yet we were still blitzing and crowding the box and leaving our depleted secondary on islands.

 

But even if we did that we still probably would have lost given all of the mental errors that happened on special teams and offense.

Not true. He played really well against the Raiders. Even before that game he had a good yards per carry average.

 

He wasn't used much because the Bills were behind and needed to air it out. Singletary is a good running back.

 

People throw around the term bust WAY too much. The guy has a down game and all the sudden he is a bust?

3.11 ypc versus the Raiders. The zone totally neutralizes Singletary. He can’t beat the second level once run is read. 

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

3.11 ypc versus the Raiders. The zone totally neutralizes Singletary. He can’t beat the second level once run is read. 

Rams, rather. Plus he was a weapon catching the ball out of the backfield versus the raiders and the Rams.

[marky]

The Bills were messed up, half asleep or hung over or something. Review the tape all you want. It means nothing if people are distracted and not ready for the game.

[appoo]

in that 2nd half, Allen was chewing up the Titans zone, except on one particular play of course. 

[Charles Romes]

28 minutes ago, MJS said:

Rams, rather. Plus he was a weapon catching the ball out of the backfield versus the raiders and the Rams.

That makes him a situational/third down back not an every down back which is why they trying to sign Bell. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, beavis said:

The Bills were messed up, half asleep or hung over or something. Review the tape all you want. It means nothing if people are distracted and not ready for the game.

 

They simply acted as though they wanted to be somewhere else, doing something else.

 

They were not "locked in"

 

BTW if you missed it, in his Weds presser McD said flat out "I did not have the team ready to play"

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Completely agree.  They drafted Moss to play the Gore role in the 2018 offense.  Those days are gone.  Speed back is huge priority.

 

Reminds me of their approach to WR in 2017-18 when they sought out the big lumbering type receivers who couldn't separate but had a larger catch radius.   Those were some lean years in the passing game.  I'm not clear why they've been a step behind in prioritizing it, aside from a gadget type player. 

 

My theory is McD's strategy is what Beane adheres to.  And I'm not confident that McD knows enough about offense to know how to fit personnel to build an up-tempo scheme.

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Don't overlook the impact of ST giving up that 40 yd punt return with 2 minutes left in the 1st, forcing the D to defend starting at the Bills 30 and leading to a Titans TD.

 

Prior to that ST miscue, it was a tied game.  After, it was 14-7. 

 

We also had 2 drives starting from our 9 yd line, not a miscue exactly and we need to sustain long drives, but no help from ST either.

 

 

And yet, if we let Henry grind it out and hang 200 yds on us, everyone would be all "Bills lost because they can't stop the run"

 

 

When you consider that the Titans had 4 drive starts inside the Bills 30 yd line...it's no wonder our D looked so bad and our offense couldn't keep up.  ST and turnovers killed us right from the beginning.  The Bills heads weren't in this game.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

When you consider that the Titans had 4 drive starts inside the Bills 30 yd line...it's no wonder our D looked so bad and our offense couldn't keep up.  ST and turnovers killed us right from the beginning.  The Bills heads weren't in this game.

 

Turnovers are always really deflating.  They scored on the 2nd play over norman and you could tell it was just... gonna be a long night for that unit.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Turnovers are always really deflating.  They scored on the 2nd play over norman and you could tell it was just... gonna be a long night for that unit.

 

Except that we went right down and scored on the next drive.

Next series for the D was a 3-and-out

But then after the O went 3-and-out, that was the punt with the 40 yd return, tackle by Bojo and first-and-10 at our 30.

 

That was the point where I said "OK, all 3 phases of our game are AFU, gonna be a long night"

[K-9]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Man is Simms down the Bills’ RBs and running game in general. Indeed, after the game, McDermott basically said it was terrible that they couldn’t run better than they did against a D playing coverage/cover 2 all night. I wonder if we suffer from the illusion of Singletary being good rather than a mere change of pace back who is quick but not fast in space. There are a lot of negative plays with him and he is not fast enough to break really long runs. 

Singletary may be an illusion, but watching our OL get absolutely NO push between the tackles is a reality. We can’t run block worth a damn.

[TheBrownBear]

Good stuff.  Thanks for sharing.