aristocrat Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: He WAS. That was before Sports effectively stopped and people stopped wanting to go with 75K of their favorite strangers in a stadium for 4 hours. So how is ESPN doing financially lately? QBs MIGHT be topping $75 million in 10 years or might be getting a fraction of that. The risk of a 10 year deal is unbelievably risky right now. Nfl is al tv money and with gambling money coming in the franchises will make even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETTOTHE50 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, DCOrange said: I assume this is sarcasm? no it isn’t. No nfl player has ever had a contract that’s a 3rd of a billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: I assume there is a percentage to the cap clause built in or it’s a bad deal for him by like 2022 I would also like to see if he has an out by a certain point in that deal. If I were his agent I would make sure at least by year 4 he has an opt out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: $400M+ is my guess. I’ll take a shot, 10 years $425M, $250M guaranteed If that’s the case, he’s going to be underpaid in year 2. $42.5 million is fair market value for him today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, GETTOTHE50 said: no it isn’t. No nfl player has ever had a contract that’s a 3rd of a billion. If Dak is getting between $35M and $40M a year why would you expect Mahomes to be at $30M or less a year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETTOTHE50 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, Billl said: Easily. Likely north of $500 million. Lol half a billion? Come on man! That’s almost half the worth of any franchise! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, aristocrat said: Nfl is al tv money and with gambling money coming in the franchises will make even more Not all but predominantly. Really, so how are the Sports Networks doing right now? Streaming and changing technologies are doing a number of conventional networks. What if there is no NFL this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rico said: Thank God we didn’t draft him, that’s a lot of jack! Well, it probably would have resulted in the Sabres being sold...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Billl said: If that’s the case, he’s going to be underpaid in year 2. $42.5 million is fair market value for him today. You think that his “fair market value” is $7.5M per year MORE than Russell Wilson’s? No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETTOTHE50 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said: If Dak is getting between $35M and $40M a year why would you expect Mahomes to be at $30M or less a year? True. Didn’t think of it like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefan66 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Got to be in the 400k range, and then incentives. Worth every penny. He didn’t just break the bank...he is the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Right...so why would this be a good deal for Mahomes? Well, the new cba was just signed... Sorry, my tense are all messed up. What I was saying is that those players that wanted short deals were negotiating pre-cba. Mahomes is now post-cba. Edited July 6, 2020 by JoshAllenHasBigHands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: zero reason for him to do this imo Except that he's probably getting a massive guaranteed bonus up front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, Billl said: If that’s the case, he’s going to be underpaid in year 2. $42.5 million is fair market value for him today. I don’t disagree but that’s a strong guarantee number IMO. As crazy as it sounds the longer deal with the higher guarantee swings back to the player IMO. Years 1-4 (advantage player), years 5-8 (advantage team), years 9-10 (advantage player). Football is a violent, violent game and the Chiefs would have to insure against an injury at least at some level I’d think? Mahomes is taking the security in this case vs. straight market value. I also assume that it’s tied to the cap at some level whether officially or unofficially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, dneveu said: Except that he's probably getting a massive guaranteed bonus up front. yeh that was my thought, guaranteed# has to be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: Not all but predominantly. Really, so how are the Sports Networks doing right now? Streaming and changing technologies are doing a number of conventional networks. What if there is no NFL this year? then Mahomes doesn’t get paid. In ten years there will be football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 No knock on Mahomes, but I can’t see this truly ending well. Either they have a bunch of buyouts built in (which is unlikely as why would he sign) or else they are truly stuck with him for 10 years, which is insane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, dneveu said: Except that he's probably getting a massive guaranteed bonus up front. I don't think it will be that massive on a per-year basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Jerry Jones just slashed Prescott's tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rico said: Thank God we didn’t draft him, that’s a lot of jack! The Bengals are really relieved, they took John Ross one spot before him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back2Buff Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 This will benefit Mahomes more than the team. I'm pretty confident any signing bonus can only be spread out over 5 years. This means that the salary cap is going to be high for the next 5 years. The remaining years will have lower caps, but if Mahomes is still at the top of his game, it will be restructed anyways. If he stinks or get hurt, he collects anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, dneveu said: Except that he's probably getting a massive guaranteed bonus up front. This. Depending on up front bonus money, he could invest and get the possibly the same or greater return on compounding interest compared to fajita chasing market value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Back2Buff said: This will benefit Mahomes more than the team. I'm pretty confident any signing bonus can only be spread out over 5 years. This means that the salary cap is going to be high for the next 5 years. The remaining years will have lower caps, but if Mahomes is still at the top of his game, it will be restructed anyways. If he stinks or get hurt, he collects anyways. It’s a 10 year extension. He’s already under contract for 2 more seasons. The bonus will likely then be spread out 3-8 seasons from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back2Buff Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, Billl said: It’s a 10 year extension. He’s already under contract for 2 more seasons. The bonus will likely then be spread out 3-8 seasons from now. It can't. Next 5 years according to CBA unless Mahomes if getting zero dollars today to sign that extension, which then why would he sign it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Back2Buff said: This will benefit Mahomes more than the team. I'm pretty confident any signing bonus can only be spread out over 5 years. This means that the salary cap is going to be high for the next 5 years. The remaining years will have lower caps, but if Mahomes is still at the top of his game, it will be restructed anyways. If he stinks or get hurt, he collects anyways. The team is making more than him and will make a lot more if he wins them many titles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: zero reason for him to do this imo you can't think of one reason? there are probably opt outs for both sides after 3-5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 "Now Mahomes is driving the bus!" * Giddy up! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 (edited) 42 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: The deal has to be tied to the salary cap, right? Otherwise this would be insane, for both parties. How do you take into account what the cap is in 10 years? That was my first thought. Maybe his salary is a certain % of the salary cap each year guaranteeing he continues to get fair market value (maybe 18 to 20% of the team's cap). Edited July 6, 2020 by Doc Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, nucci said: you can't think of one reason? there are probably opt outs for both sides after 3-5 years Hope so I just don't see the point unless the guaranteed number is enormous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, Doc Brown said: That was my first thought. Maybe his salary is a certain % of the salary cap each year guaranteeing he continues to get fair market value (maybe 17% or so). Escalators, performance bonuses, opt-outs - lot of ways to build in some flexibility while also getting him a big payday right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Can’t see this being a real contract past the first 5 years. Maybe 5 years, $200m with $120m guaranteed. Anything more than that would be voidable by the player or team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: That's the only way a 10 year extension makes sense. KC better draft well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRT88 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 53 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said: Is it north of 300 million do you think? I’d say WAY north. $350 million minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back2Buff Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, aristocrat said: The team is making more than him and will make a lot more if he wins them many titles. Huh? Not sure that is even a debate that an NFL team brings in more than 40 million a year in revenue. I'm talking about risk vs reward. A team being tied to 10 years is a lot more risky than Mahomes being tied to 10 years. If Mahomes gets really hurt, the team is still liable for the contract. Mahomes risk is maybe losing out on a couple million, but he is setting the market and everyone will need to be below him anyways, so not sure there is even any risk there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 52 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said: Is it north of 300 million do you think? I would expect $450M- $500M. Wlson already makes $35M a year. Inflation ten years from now, with a new TV deal on the way could massively change the cap. If he didn't get at least $450M, it's an awful deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Wow! Good thing the Bills passed on drafting THAT guy! Think of all the money they just saved!! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Back2Buff said: Huh? Not sure that is even a debate that an NFL team brings in more than 40 million a year in revenue. I'm talking about risk vs reward. A team being tied to 10 years is a lot more risky than Mahomes being tied to 10 years. If Mahomes gets really hurt, the team is still liable for the contract. Mahomes risk is maybe losing out on a couple million, but he is setting the market and everyone will need to be below him anyways, so not sure there is even any risk there. contracts are insured for career ending injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts