The Draft is a total crap shoot...

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see

But that’s just silly. What rookie that might be a superstar would you have wanted at our pick?

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see

The difference is Diggs is a proven commodity. If any of the other 3 get to his level we will call them a success. How long until they get there? The Bills window is right now. Even if one of those guys becomes great it was a good move. The risk and cost was greater than with Diggs. The chances are extremely long that all 3 end up better than Diggs. So it wouldn’t even be about trading up it would be about trading up (which cost more than Diggs) AND finding the guy that’s better. The juice was definitely not worth the squeeze which is why it made so much sense. If I’m wrong I’ll own it but the chances of looking back at this as a “bad deal” for the Bills are extremely slim (to none). 
 

Now if we want to judge any guys picked from 22 and after we are still assuming that we would have picked the right one if one ends up better. As an example, if Michael Pittman becomes a star we shouldn’t regret this trade unless he was going to be the selection not an option. It’s like the year that the Bills didn’t take Michael Thomas. They didn’t take Treadwell or Doctson either who went before Thomas. We can’t just retroactively select the most successful guy and say that’s what we should have done. You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs. 

[Nextmanup]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

Those rules are silly. Mahomes is the best QB in football, he wasn’t can’t miss, the Chiefs moved up and have already won a Super Bowl by doing so.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

That was also my reasoning as to why the trade for Diggs was a no brainer for us.  The hit rate for 1st rounders is about 50%.  The hit rate for finding an elite player with a 1st round pick is about 20%.  There is some good analytics work out there that shows that giving up a first round pick plus a market value contract for an elite player at an important position is virtually always the smart move.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

 

Except the best do. 

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

Have you looked at our drafts w/the new FO versus the Whaley years? That alone should tell you the bolded is wrong.

[Augie]

There is no salary cap for the FO or scouts. You need quality there, and I feel good about what we’re got. Nobody gets them all right, but you have to hit more than you miss. This is a big part of why the Bengals are.......the Bengals. You can’t compete on the cheap. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Have you looked at our drafts w/the new FO versus the Whaley years? That alone should tell you the bolded is wrong.

 

Yep. The best FOs are not always right. But they are less often wrong. 

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The difference is Diggs is a proven commodity. If any of the other 3 get to his level we will call them a success. How long until they get there? The Bills window is right now. Even if one of those guys becomes great it was a good move. The risk and cost was greater than with Diggs. The chances are extremely long that all 3 end up better than Diggs. So it wouldn’t even be about trading up it would be about trading up (which cost more than Diggs) AND finding the guy that’s better. The juice was definitely not worth the squeeze which is why it made so much sense. If I’m wrong I’ll own it but the chances of looking back at this as a “bad deal” for the Bills are extremely slim (to none). 
 

Now if we want to judge any guys picked from 22 and after we are still assuming that we would have picked the right one if one ends up better. As an example, if Michael Pittman becomes a star we shouldn’t regret this trade unless he was going to be the selection not an option. It’s like the year that the Bills didn’t take Michael Thomas. They didn’t take Treadwell or Doctson either who went before Thomas. We can’t just retroactively select the most successful guy and say that’s what we should have done. You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs. 

I agree with you, completely.   I've said all along, getting Diggs said to Allen and Daboll and the o-line that it's now their job to win.   

 

I think McBeane always target 2021 as when the team would be able to compete for Super Bowls.   I think after the 2019 season they realized that they are essentially a year ahead of schedule, but they needed a receiver.    It's not so much that there's a "window."   Usually when people use that phrase they mean that the team has the right collection of players but it will fall apart soon, because some key guys are going to retire or leave in free agency.   That isn't what the Bills are looking at.   They have the key people in place for the next several years.   Some guys will leave, but not the core.   So it isn't a window.   

 

Still, McBeane decided that there was no reason to take the risk that they'd get the right receiver and then wait for the guy to develop.   They were ready for the team to move up now, and the trade gave them exactly what they needed.   

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The best FOs are not always right. But they are less often wrong. 

There you go.  

 

I'd like to know where Beane and McDermott had Dareus on their board in 2011.  There's a reason they kept Jerry Hughes and let Marcel go, and I'd guess it's character issues that McBeane identified when each was coming out of college.  

[Don Otreply]

55 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see

We still would have to give up a lot more draft capital to get one of the top three than we gave up for Diggs, the Watkins trade is not particularly comparable. We gave up much less for Diggs. 

[mjt328]

11 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

There have been multiple studies done on the draft, and what rounds Hall of Fame legends, All-Pros/Pro-Bowlers, Starters and just guys who make the roster are picked.  In every single study, the highest percentage begins in the 1st Round and gradually decreases each round after that point.  Data shows a direct correlation between how early a player is selected and how successful their career will be.  GMs and Scouts absolutely know what they are doing (admittedly some better than others).

 

There are two reasons that fans BELIEVE the draft is just a random crap shoot:

 

#1 -  First Round prospects are WAY over-hyped.  From the moment the Super Bowl finishes, the top guys in each draft class are pumped up to the point that everyone thinks they are getting a Pro-Bowler.  Which just isn't realistic.  The Pro-Bowl doesn't have enough spots to add 32 new guys every year.  For example, look at the "Bills Worst Draft Pick" thread from a few months ago.  The only reason players like Marcel Dareus, Donte Whitner or Shaq Lawson could possibly be on that list, is because expectations are way too high.  Bottom line... most 1st Round guys (outside of maybe Quarterbacks) at least turn into NFL starters.  And most 7th Round guys don't make the active roster.

 

#2 -  Late round success stories are talked about ENDLESSLY.  Every single year, we are reminded at the beginning of the 6th Round that Tom Brady was picked there 20 years ago.  The problem is, he's pretty much the only 6th Round QB in NFL history who has ever done jack squat.  Brady isn't an example of scouts "missing" on a player.  He's an example of a below-average college talent somehow improving every aspect of his game by 500% after hitting the pros - which just simply doesn't happen.

 

 

 

[buffalover4life]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Trubisky and Thomas were overdrafted. Said that at the time. Fournette's issues are as much off field as on. The one I am genuinely really surprised hasn't been a success is Corey Davis. I had a really high grade on him and I have liked him when I have seen him play in the NFL too. Not really sure what the issue has been and he has been nicked up some. He is the kind of player who I would not be surprised to see go somewhere else and suddenly pop. 

 

I loved Corey Davis, But i was shocked on draft day when he was drafted that high. I agree with the idea that he could pop when he leaves the titans, I'd love to kick the tires on his second contract.

[Blank Stare]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Other factors enter into a decision like that, to include the quality of the position group.

 

When Whaley gave away the store for Watkins, we were picking at #9 and there was a lot of talent in that class at wide receiver. We also had no quarterback so it was a dumb move. In 2020, there was even more talent at WR but we had a later pick. It MAY turn out to be a very good move, but it may also not be the best thing for the team. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we could have done better standing pat, or even trading slightly up. Only time will tell.

 

I was skeptical of the trade after watching many years of idiotic draft trades and very dumb selections. Some of them were not that long ago. The good news is that none of them can be attributed to Beane.

This is completely fair and I don’t blame you after the misguided moves made by the previous regime.
 

If we were picking #9 again this year, I would’ve been completely against trading that pick for Diggs. As good as he is, you don’t trade top 10 picks for anything other than QBs. Fortunately, I think the Bills would’ve also been out for that price since we could’ve had our pick of any of the top WRs.

 

It’s crazy what a difference 13 picks makes on how I view a deal. Either 9 or 22, it’s nothing more than lotto tickets. Diggs is still a proven great player, but I wouldn’t trade the #9 pick. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by TheProcess

[Thurman#1]

A crapshoot is something that has an unpredictable outcome, according to Merriam-Webster.

 

The draft as a whole is anything but unpredictable.

 

Every single year in history more first-rounders stick and become good than fourth rounders. It isn't unpredictable by any means. The higher up you go, the better your odds.

 

Is it difficult? Yeah, you bet. But out of the six cited players:

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

... you've got four excellent players, Those are good odds. Yeah, some fifth-year options haven't been exercised, but that's not a draft issue. It's a multi-factorial decision, involving cap space, injuries, motivation of the player, who else you've got at the position, how valuable the position is and a ton more.

 

I wouldn't have made the Diggs trade, myself. I'm clear that Beane is way better at this than I am, but IMO he paid a bit too much in picks, Diggs may (or may not) be a bit of a diva, and while I absolutely love his pay schedule the next few years, my bet is that he either gets paid more and quite a bit more sometime before the 2022 season ... or that he proves unhappy. My guess is there'll be a re-negotiation in the next two years, which will make that trade look worse.

 

Of course, if the Bills win a Super Bowl sometime soon, that result would validate the decisions made to get there. Hope this is what happens. I wouldn't have made that trade, myself, though.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The best FOs are not always right. But they are less often wrong. 

 

 

Yup. Exactly.

 

Another reason why you want to maximize how high your picks are to give them more freedom of who they can pick, and also maximize the number of picks. If you have a lot of picks, you can trade up or you can give the guy who's less often wrong even more chances.

[JetsFan20]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

The NFL is pretty good at this, but not perfect. You are 100 percent correct that they outsmart themselves often. 
 

Josh Allen last year was prime example:

 

 Terrific production as a 4 year starter, top notch athleticism, team captain, played vs SEC competition. He should have absolutely been a top 3-4 pick and somehow falls to 7. Why? Because NFL scouts started nitpicking the way he got the sacks and claimed his pass rush moves weren’t adequate. 
 

DeShaun Watson another great example of this. He fell because teams claimed he was too much of a first read guy and that wouldn’t translate at the next level. 

I think scouts sometimes forget how young these guys are and the fact that the NFL has coaches for a reason. 

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

19 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is essentially the Chiefs strategy.  However, the majority of people who post on this board are certain beyond doubt that the only way to build a team properly is by "building through the draft"

I thought their strategy was to draft pure BPA regardless of ???. Drug use and domestic violence certainly seem like a secondary concern to Reid. Perhaps it’s him trying to “save” guys after what happened with his son. No clue, but they have a lot of talent with off field issues or odd personalities. 

[John from Riverside]

Color me shocked on Corey davis

 

has every tool to be a number one but somehow is not

[John from Riverside]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

So I am going to say we did not do that in all the beane drafts

 

when we took josh Allen and Edmunds we were def taking them on the upside of what they can be

 

in other drafts like with Oliver I felt we went with what the strength of the draft was

 

in this last draft I felt they had every position covered so well that they let the best available decide the player but still came out with three wide receivers counting diggs

[Thurman#1]

45 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

So I am going to say we did not do that in all the beane drafts

 

when we took josh Allen and Edmunds we were def taking them on the upside of what they can be

 

in other drafts like with Oliver I felt we went with what the strength of the draft was

 

in this last draft I felt they had every position covered so well that they let the best available decide the player but still came out with three wide receivers counting diggs

 

 

I disagree on Edmunds. He was very very likely to be excellent. His floor wasn't low.

 

Allen ... yeah, fair enough, probably. You have to take risks with a QB. They don't come around as often as you'd like, and when they do, you have to grab one.

 

Besides, how many QBs DON'T have low floors. Very very few. It's such a huge jump from college to pros that nearly anyone who's not named Luck or P. Manning can fail if they don't pick up skills they've never demonstrated at the college level and speed up their mental processing skills by huge amounts.

 

 

13 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that the Bills were in a position where they needed a number 1 receiver, not “a” receiver. They gave up the equivalent of pick 18 to get a number 1 on a team-friendly deal. The cost to move up for one of those potential #1’s was greater than Diggs. This trade is a no-brainer in the situation that the Bills were in. 

 

 

How long will it be a team-friendly deal? If we don't win a Super Bowl and Diggs gets angry with a lack of production and threatens a holdout, what will happen? We don't know how team-friendly this deal will be. It's friendly as hell now, it's mega-amicable, super-affable, ultra-cordial, hell, it's downright team-intimate and team-matey. But for how long?

 

How much of a diva will Diggs end up being?

 

This wasn't a no-brainer at all. I'm sure they thought pretty hard about it. It could still go either way, IMO.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Bill from NYC]

13 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs. 

You also get a player with more miles and in many cases a shorter contract, or am I dreaming this?

 

Maybe we should trade away our #1 every season, right? I mean look how well it worked in 2017!!! 

[HOUSE]

Who would shoot crap anyway, I am a busy guy...

[Bill from NYC]

13 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

We still would have to give up a lot more draft capital to get one of the top three than we gave up for Diggs, the Watkins trade is not particularly comparable. We gave up much less for Diggs. 

OK then.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

You also get a player with more miles and in many cases a shorter contract, or am I dreaming this?

 

Maybe we should trade away our #1 every season, right? I mean look how well it worked in 2017!!! 

 

You are right Bill but the joy of the Diggs trade is he is only 26. He has four years on his contract at below market rate for a player of his ability and with no dead money at all after 2020. It gives the Bills real flexibility. Sure, he is still more expensive than a rookie would be but the Bills have accepted that they are paying $10m a year more for that known quantity - because they need a number 1 right now, not in 2 years. 

 

I am generally in agreement with you Bill that trading away your 1st rounder for vets is not a sustainable long term strategy but I think this deal was a very specific set of circumstances where it made sense.

[machine gun kelly]

Diggs my guess was worth it.  We now have every weapon we need for a strong offense and the X factor is Allen.  I certainly hope and am cautiously optimistic he’ll deliver this year.  If he does then the trade was completely worth it.  Beane in his wisdom even picked up Diggs for a modest contract comparatively for an elite WR.  $11.5-12 mil. Per year for the next three years.  Even if we renegotiate in a year or two, we saved comparatively to a Julio Jones contract.

 

To the OP’s point on the draft a crap shoot, just consider Diggs was a 5th round pick.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Diggs my guess was worth it.  We now have every weapon we need for a strong offense and the X factor is Allen.  I certainly hope and am cautiously optimistic he’ll deliver this year.  If he does then the trade was completely worth it.  Beane in his wisdom even picked up Diggs for a modest contract comparatively for an elite WR.  $11.5-12 mil. Per year for the next three years.  Even if we renegotiate in a year or two, we saved comparatively to a Julio Jones contract.

 

To the OP’s point on the draft a crap shoot, just consider Diggs was a 5th round pick.

 

Next offseason they will do something with the Diggs contract IMO. He has no guaranteed money after this year. So he will be hankering for a new deal and the Bills will have useful leverage to get away without increasing his cap number too much by simply turning some of that unguaranteed money into guaranteed money. There is sufficient incentive on both sides to come to an arrangement given the way his current deal is constructed. It is why it was such a great trade. You not only get a high end player at a position of need you also get as team friendly a contractual situation as it is possible to inherit.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

How long will it be a team-friendly deal? If we don't win a Super Bowl and Diggs gets angry with a lack of production and threatens a holdout, what will happen? We don't know how team-friendly this deal will be. It's friendly as hell now, it's mega-amicable, super-affable, ultra-cordial, hell, it's downright team-intimate and team-matey. But for how long?

 

How much of a diva will Diggs end up being?

 

This wasn't a no-brainer at all. I'm sure they thought pretty hard about it. It could still go either way, IMO.

The new CBA makes it virtually impossible to hold out. If you are gone for 5 days you lose an accrued season. Players will see substantially bigger fines for holding out and under the new CBA the team cannot waive that fine when the player shows up. So your concern isn’t applicable under the new collective bargaining agreement. They will probably try to extend him in a couple of years but the ball is in the team’s court now.
 

I really don’t think that the Bills spent much time thinking this over. Beane talked about the need for someone to walk in the door ready. He also talked about not being able to get high enough in the draft to get one of those guys. He tried to trade for Diggs during last season and now was able to get him. The Bills love the player. The Bills had a desperate need at the position. The Bills didn’t have the ability to get a comparable player in the draft for the same assets. He’s on an extremely team-friendly deal. I really don’t understand why people think this was difficult? If he had a shot at the top 3 maybe he would have rolled the dice but he knew that he couldn’t get one of them for the cost of the 18th pick.

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

You also get a player with more miles and in many cases a shorter contract, or am I dreaming this?

 

Maybe we should trade away our #1 every season, right? I mean look how well it worked in 2017!!! 

If your only real need is a number 1 wide receiver you should not hesitate to trade away the equivalent of pick 18 for a number 1 receiver. This holds especially true if said receiver is 26 years-old and on one of the best contracts in football for 4 more years. 
 

Each decision is different. KC traded their first round pick last year for a player and won the Super Bowl. They had a need and filled that need with a proven commodity.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The new CBA makes it virtually impossible to hold out. If you are gone for 5 days you lose an accrued season. Players will see substantially bigger fines for holding out and under the new CBA the team cannot waive that fine when the player shows up. So your concern isn’t applicable under the new collective bargaining agreement. They will probably try to extend him in a couple of years but the ball is in the team’s court now.
 

I really don’t think that the Bills spent much time thinking this over. Beane talked about the need for someone to walk in the door ready. He also talked about not being able to get high enough in the draft to get one of those guys. He tried to trade for Diggs during last season and now was able to get him. The Bills love the player. The Bills had a desperate need at the position. The Bills didn’t have the ability to get a comparable player in the draft for the same assets. He’s on an extremely team-friendly deal. I really don’t understand why people think this was difficult? If he had a shot at the top 3 maybe he would have rolled the dice but he knew that he couldn’t get one of them for the cost of the 18th pick.

 

As I said above I think the thing that likely happens next summer is they give him some up front money. Maybe in exchange for him giving them an extra year. They don't need to pay him a lot more. They just need to turn some of that salary into guaranteed signing bonus. After next season there is 3 years and about $38m left on Diggs's deal with $0 guaranteed. If I am the Bills I am willing to say okay we will match that $12.5m average for the next three years for a 4th year, so he is then owed about $50m over 4 years and you give him $15m of that upfront in amortised signing bonus and guarantee his entire 2021 salary. That means instead of a possible $38m Diggs has a guaranteed $27.5m and with another $22.5m possible. You are a brave agent if you tell Stefon Diggs to leave that guaranteed money on the table.

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As I said above I think the thing that likely happens next summer is they give him some up front money. Maybe in exchange for him giving them an extra year. They don't need to pay him a lot more. They just need to turn some of that salary into guaranteed signing bonus. After next season there is 3 years and about $38m left on Diggs's deal with $0 guaranteed. If I am the Bills I am willing to say okay we will match that $12.5m average for the next three years for a 4th year, so he is then owed about $50m over 4 years and you give him $15m of that upfront in amortised signing bonus and guarantee his entire 2021 salary. That means instead of a possible $38m Diggs has a guaranteed $27.5m and with another $22.5m possible. You are a brave agent if you tell Stefon Diggs to leave that guaranteed money on the table.

You are probably right. I didn’t look up The specifics of his contract but that would make sense. It would be a great goodwill gesture even without the extra year (although I’d prefer it). That’s the kind of thing good organizations do.

[NoSaint]

On 5/26/2020 at 6:12 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

that ignores the cap implication. 
 

You could, in theory, sign a good player and take the draft pick still instead of trading for the good player.

 

that said, I’m still not terribly opposed to trading high picks. Just cap is a cost most don’t consider in the equation 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

So I am going to say we did not do that in all the beane drafts

 

when we took josh Allen and Edmunds we were def taking them on the upside of what they can be

 

in other drafts like with Oliver I felt we went with what the strength of the draft was

 

in this last draft I felt they had every position covered so well that they let the best available decide the player but still came out with three wide receivers counting diggs

I don't think you're correct about Allen and Edmunds.   You're looking at it from the typical fan's perspective (and my typical perspective, too).    The conventional wisdom was that Allen had a high ceiling and a low floor, that is, that he had bust potential. 

 

I don't think McBeane saw it that way.   When you listen to them talk about their due diligence on Allen, it became clear that they developed a very high level belief that Allen did not have the big bust potential that the media kept reporting.   They liked him because he's smart, he had a high Wonderlic score, he was intensely competitive, he was a hard worker, and he had demonstrated leadership capabilities.   That's what McBeane look for and, for example, they saw that stuff more in Allen than in Rosen.   They sounded genuinely excited to get Allen; in fact, they sounded like Allen was their first choice of all the QBs in the draft.   They didn't think they were reaching. 

 

And I think they saw the same things in Edmund.   

 

So, yeah, sure, from our perspective, we thought McBeane were going for the fences with those picks, but I don't think they did.   They knew what they wanted and they went for it.   The proof's in the pudding, and so far you have to agree those were solid picks.   The only difference between us and McBeane is that they knew they were solid picks on draft night - for us it took a couple of years.  

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

A crapshoot is something that has an unpredictable outcome, according to Merriam-Webster.

 

The draft as a whole is anything but unpredictable.

 

Every single year in history more first-rounders stick and become good than fourth rounders. It isn't unpredictable by any means. The higher up you go, the better your odds.

 

Is it difficult? Yeah, you bet. But out of the six cited players:

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

... you've got four excellent players, Those are good odds. Yeah, some fifth-year options haven't been exercised, but that's not a draft issue. It's a multi-factorial decision, involving cap space, injuries, motivation of the player, who else you've got at the position, how valuable the position is and a ton more.

 

 

I agree with your take on drafting.   Collectively, the GMs find the right players and draft them high.   Sure, there are exceptions, because it isn't easy, and it isn't possible to get them all right.  

 

Except for QB, I think it's more important not to miss in the first round than it is to get the best player on the board.  Of the guys left on the board, if your GM takes one of the top 5, you're okay.   Sure, he'll miss a JJ Watt occasionally, but that isn't the end of the world.   What hurts is to miss, one of those top 5, to take a guy in the first who busts or turns out only to be a fourth round talent.   Those misses kill you, because the first round is your best opportunity to add good talent.   

 

That's why I think the Diggs trade is fine.   They traded an 18 overall for Diggs.   He's not a fourth-round talent.   He's a very low probability bust.   He's very likely to be a guy you'll be happy to have in you lineup for four or five years.   That means they didn't miss with their first round pick, and that's all I ask. 

[Billl]

12 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I thought their strategy was to draft pure BPA regardless of ???. Drug use and domestic violence certainly seem like a secondary concern to Reid. Perhaps it’s him trying to “save” guys after what happened with his son. No clue, but they have a lot of talent with off field issues or odd personalities. 

Hunt got kicked off the team in the middle of a Super Bowl run for pushing a girl who got in his face.  Tyreek didn’t do any of the stuff he was accused of.  He has full custody of all of his kids.  The woman who accused him (same woman both times) has no custody of them.  She’s a gold digging psychopath.

[Prospector]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I disagree on Edmunds. He was very very likely to be excellent. His floor wasn't low.

 

Allen ... yeah, fair enough, probably. You have to take risks with a QB. They don't come around as often as you'd like, and when they do, you have to grab one.

 

Besides, how many QBs DON'T have low floors. Very very few. It's such a huge jump from college to pros that nearly anyone who's not named Luck or P. Manning can fail if they don't pick up skills they've never demonstrated at the college level and speed up their mental processing skills by huge amounts.

 

 

 

 

How long will it be a team-friendly deal? If we don't win a Super Bowl and Diggs gets angry with a lack of production and threatens a holdout, what will happen? We don't know how team-friendly this deal will be. It's friendly as hell now, it's mega-amicable, super-affable, ultra-cordial, hell, it's downright team-intimate and team-matey. But for how long?

 

How much of a diva will Diggs end up being?

 

This wasn't a no-brainer at all. I'm sure they thought pretty hard about it. It could still go either way, IMO.

Geez, get a room with your half empty glass

[Prospector]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

Hunt got kicked off the team in the middle of a Super Bowl run for pushing a girl who got in his face.  Tyreek didn’t do any of the stuff he was accused of.  He has full custody of all of his kids.  The woman who accused him (same woman both times) has no custody of them.  She’s a gold digging psychopath.

Agreed... I heard the horror stories about what happened, then saw the video. Maybe the telephone game isn’t the best way to relay info. And that massive kick, that tapped her butt... was not really what people made it out to be. But, at the height of the ‘me too’ movement, just being a guy was fault enough. Especially a pro athlete. 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Hunt got kicked off the team in the middle of a Super Bowl run for pushing a girl who got in his face.  Tyreek didn’t do any of the stuff he was accused of.  He has full custody of all of his kids.  The woman who accused him (same woman both times) has no custody of them.  She’s a gold digging psychopath.

She may be a “gold digging psychopath”. However, the fact that he kept banging her is indicative of poor decision making, especially when he was looking at NFL money. My comment wasn’t solely based upon Hill and Hunt though. It’s about Reid’s perpetual affinity for playing with fire in the form of reclamation projects going back to the Eagles. As for Reid’s time with the Chiefs.... Frank Clark and Justin Cox had DV incidents in college. There’s also Roy Miller, etc. and that’s not including the non-domestic violence issues like Brashaud Breeland. Since Reid has been HC there the team has had more off field incidents than every team except the Dolphins and the Browns - who have both been woefully dysfunctional. Perhaps it’s just a Chiefs problem though. I mean the year before Reid arrived Belcher killed his girlfriend then drove to the Chiefs practice facility and shot himself in the head in front of Scott Pioli. ?‍♂️. My point though is.... 

 

Keep playing with Fire and eventually you get burned. They take a lot of chances to maximize talent. It works, but there are drawbacks. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Buffalo Junction

[mjt328]

14 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Color me shocked on Corey davis

 

has every tool to be a number one but somehow is not

 

Regardless of how talented a WR is... he is ALWAYS going to under-perform without a good QB throwing him the ball.

 

Marcus Mariota looks like an NFL backup.  And for all the hype Ryan Tannehill got last year, his play was definitely more on the game-manager end of the spectrum.  The Titans did not have an explosive passing offense, and was clearly a Derrick Henry run-first strategy. 

 

As the year progressed, AJ Brown also became the #1 target in the limited attack they did have.

 

[ColoradoBills]

On 5/27/2020 at 5:13 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Next offseason they will do something with the Diggs contract IMO. He has no guaranteed money after this year. So he will be hankering for a new deal and the Bills will have useful leverage to get away without increasing his cap number too much by simply turning some of that unguaranteed money into guaranteed money. There is sufficient incentive on both sides to come to an arrangement given the way his current deal is constructed. It is why it was such a great trade. You not only get a high end player at a position of need you also get as team friendly a contractual situation as it is possible to inherit.

 

I agree that OBD may redo aspects of his contract but just saying Diggs get 3.3 Million guaranteed in 2021 in March.

Your points will get stronger once Diggs has time to see how well he fits.

It seems to me if Diggs and Allen are tearing it up in 2021 then 2022 would be a good time to extend his contract.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I agree that OBD may redo aspects of his contract but just saying Diggs get 3.3 Million guaranteed in 2021 in March.

Your points will get stronger once Diggs has time to see how well he fits.

It seems to me if Diggs and Allen are tearing it up in 2021 then 2022 would be a good time to extend his contract.

 

Yep. Before that the Bills could cut him for $0.