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Mahomes contract predictions


NoSaint

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All this Dak talk makes me laugh.  The dude is a glorified bus driver.

 

One of the best Offensive lines in the game.

The best RB in the game.

A great WR corp.

 

Their record 8-8.... *wut*

 

IF the Cowboys were smart, IMO, trade Dak and a 4-5 round pick away to Miami for their 2 first round picks and Rosen.

 

Dak at 35Mil a year? :)  Crazy. 

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...now this is quite laughable.........

 

Report: Dak Prescott rejected $33 million per year in new money in September

Posted by Mike Florio on February 7, 2020, 2:13 PM EST

 

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott bet on himself in September, and he’s about to cash in. One way or the other.

 

Clarence E. Hill, Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Cowboys and Prescott “came close to deal in September on a contract that would have paid him roughly $33 million annually.” Talks broke down when Prescott wanted more.

 

Here’s the thing to remember regarding any talks from 2018. Prescott’s paltry salary of $2 million for 2019 would have dragged down the total value at signing of any new contract. If, for example, the Cowboys had offered a five-year extension worth $33 million per year, the average value at signing on the six-year deal would have been $27.8 million per year, halfway between to total value at signing of the contracts signed by Jimmy Garoppolo (five years, $27.5 million per year) and Kirk Cousins (three years, $28 million per year).

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/07/report-dak-prescott-rejected-33-million-per-year-in-new-money-in-september/

 

 

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On 2/2/2020 at 11:09 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Kirk Cousins signed a 3 year, $84M contract fully guaranteed.

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think you can do a half-season contract.  It's either 5 seasons or 6?

That's why it's the over/under your choosing over or under 5.5

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On 2/3/2020 at 5:17 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

My point somehow was lost in your post. I'm not saying Mahomes would be a scrub on the Rams under McVay, but he would be under Dennison/Daboll (Bills), or the Bengals.

 

No he wouldn't. 

20 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...now this is quite laughable.........

 

Report: Dak Prescott rejected $33 million per year in new money in September

Posted by Mike Florio on February 7, 2020, 2:13 PM EST

 

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott bet on himself in September, and he’s about to cash in. One way or the other.

 

Clarence E. Hill, Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Cowboys and Prescott “came close to deal in September on a contract that would have paid him roughly $33 million annually.” Talks broke down when Prescott wanted more.

 

Here’s the thing to remember regarding any talks from 2018. Prescott’s paltry salary of $2 million for 2019 would have dragged down the total value at signing of any new contract. If, for example, the Cowboys had offered a five-year extension worth $33 million per year, the average value at signing on the six-year deal would have been $27.8 million per year, halfway between to total value at signing of the contracts signed by Jimmy Garoppolo (five years, $27.5 million per year) and Kirk Cousins (three years, $28 million per year).

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/07/report-dak-prescott-rejected-33-million-per-year-in-new-money-in-september/

 

 

 

Why is it? If I am Dak Prescott I am not settling for being between Jimmy G and Kirk Cousins. That is what Jacoby Brissett signed for. I am Dak there is no way you can tell me I am equal to Jacoby freaking Brissett. I am seeking to be in the Goff and Wentz range. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No he wouldn't. 

 

Why is it? If I am Dak Prescott I am not settling for being between Jimmy G and Kirk Cousins. That is what Jacoby Brissett signed for. I am Dak there is no way you can tell me I am equal to Jacoby freaking Brissett. I am seeking to be in the Goff and Wentz range. 

 

 

 

You do know Jacoby Brissett makes $15 mil a year year right?  $33 does not equal $15 mil.

Jimmy G is paid $27 mil/yr

Cousins is paid $28 mil a year.

 

QBs get paid based on projection of what other QBs will be paid in the future. Dak is still way too unproven with Cooper at WR as the only way he could even have any success.

 

I'd pay him $25 or let him walk.

 

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54 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

You do know Jacoby Brissett makes $15 mil a year year right?  $33 does not equal $15 mil.

Jimmy G is paid $27 mil/yr

Cousins is paid $28 mil a year.

 

QBs get paid based on projection of what other QBs will be paid in the future. Dak is still way too unproven with Cooper at WR as the only way he could even have any success.

 

I'd pay him $25 or let him walk.

 

 

Sorry I misread Jacoby's full deal as his annual. 

 

But there is no way Dak deserves less than Jimmy G and Cousins. Dak is a franchise QB. Pay the man. 

 

Any QB who a team wants to commit to and re-sign has to go into the top 5 of average salary because every 3 or 4 more get done and that average soon looks outdated. Remember just two summers ago the consternation when Derek Carr was briefly the best paid QB in football? Yea... he is now 11th best paid. Dak should go into that Goff and Wentz market and that is top 5 now but both Mahomes and Watson are going to outstrip that this year and then Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mayfield and Darnold will next year too. Paying Dak $33m per year by the start of 2021 will look a bargain and will be borderline top 10 money. Which is exactly what Dak is.

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On 2/3/2020 at 4:16 AM, BigBillsFan said:

Here's the truth about Mahomes... his scheme makes up for his deficiencies. Reid built that team around athleticism first and playmakers, not precise route-running. Mahomes is not and will never be Brees.

 

It works because the coach made it work. He saw in Mahomes what he could do and knew that was his guy.

 

Mahomes on the Bengals would suck, a "bust" if you will.

 

That's why drafts aren't as important as GMs and coaches with a vision. You can take a 6th round QB and figure him out in NE, or Big Ben and let him ride along a running attack. Montana under Reeves wouldn't have been Montana, etc..

 

GMs and coaches that have a vision are the real keys for success.

Mahomes would have played well wherever he was drafted, as would all ELITE!!!! QB's. To imply otherwise suggests you're not particularly adept at understanding what you're watching. This take discounts a great deal of your Allen critique because it's so far off base.

 

He's in a great system with great talent, but only the BEST of the BEST put up a 50 pass TD season. Alex Smith was a decent QB and he put up 25 with the very same supporting cast.

 

The guy is a stud. Plain and simple.

On 2/3/2020 at 10:17 AM, BigBillsFan said:

 

Ok let's flip the script. He's on our team with Rick Dennison in 2017 or Daboll in 2018. How do you think that would turn out?

 

Now let's take Vick, your example, and he goes from 160 yards a game with the Falcons to 250 yards per game with Reid.

 

He took McNabb to the NFC championship for 3 years in a row. In other words Reid knew how to mold those players to what he wanted with his scheme.

 

My point somehow was lost in your post. I'm not saying Mahomes would be a scrub on the Rams under McVay, but he would be under Dennison/Daboll (Bills), or the Bengals. There is a bit of luck they can mentally adapt to the NFL but the GMs, schemes, and HC make the player more than the player himself when it comes to QBs.

 

The coach and the GM have to have a vision for the QB with players and scheme.

And yet you've set Drew Brees as the benchmark. Sean Payton is a pretty good offensive coach, eh?

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6 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Mahomes would have played well wherever he was drafted, as would all ELITE!!!! QB's. To imply otherwise suggests you're not particularly adept at understanding what you're watching. This take discounts a great deal of your Allen critique because it's so far off base.

 

He's in a great system with great talent, but only the BEST of the BEST put up a 50 pass TD season. Alex Smith was a decent QB and he put up 25 with the very same supporting cast.

 

The guy is a stud. Plain and simple.

And yet you've set Drew Brees as the benchmark. Sean Payton is a pretty good offensive coach, eh?

 

Mahomes would not have flourished under many HCs in the NFL. Being elite isn't the same as having a great coach to hide your weaknesses and push your strengths.

 

If you think he if was drafted under Marvin Lewis's Bengals, or Hue Jackson's Browns he'd throw 50 TDs you wouldn't understand football.

 

KC thought they could grab Cassell of the Pats* and make him awesome. How did that turn out?

 

Brees is not my benchmark for anything related to this team. I may have used him as an analogy and others have. Brees is a different animal than Allen. Allen has a higher upside but a much lower floor.

 

Systems, GMs, and coaching make QBs more than QBs are great by themselves. It's exceptionally rare a QB is so great that he excels the disaster of their team. If you think Teddy Bridgewater would lead many teams to 5-0 this year let me know which teams that would be.

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On 2/8/2020 at 8:50 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

Clarence E. Hill, Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Cowboys and Prescott “came close to deal in September on a contract that would have paid him roughly $33 million annually.” Talks broke down when Prescott wanted more.

 

Here’s the thing to remember regarding any talks from 2018. Prescott’s paltry salary of $2 million for 2019 would have dragged down the total value at signing of any new contract. If, for example, the Cowboys had offered a five-year extension worth $33 million per year, the average value at signing on the six-year deal would have been $27.8 million per year, halfway between to total value at signing of the contracts signed by Jimmy Garoppolo (five years, $27.5 million per year) and Kirk Cousins (three years, $28 million per year).

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/07/report-dak-prescott-rejected-33-million-per-year-in-new-money-in-september/

 

 

Jerry Jones is negotiating through the press and it doesn't surprise me because he's a snake.  Create a persona of a greedy QB and hope he succumbs to public pressure to sign a team friendly deal.  How much of that contract is guaranteed?

 

As far as Mahomes goes, I'm going to guess 44 million a year for five years because he has a top notch agent. Maybe 165 million or so guaranteed.

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On 2/2/2020 at 9:37 PM, NoSaint said:

Let’s hear them. 
 

done this year or next?
 

over/under:

 

39.5m per year 

5.5 years 

59% guaranteed


 

he’s going to be a wealthy young man.

 

To play a game ? man talk about some messed up priority's IMHO !!

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

Boom goes their salary cap.

 

Oh for sure, but after that Cousins deal and the push Dak is Making for $30M all guaranteed... Mahomes is light-years better ... I think he gets an ungodly deal.

 

Not saying it's smart, but I think it'll happen

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5 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Mahomes would not have flourished under many HCs in the NFL. Being elite isn't the same as having a great coach to hide your weaknesses and push your strengths.

 

If you think he if was drafted under Marvin Lewis's Bengals, or Hue Jackson's Browns he'd throw 50 TDs you wouldn't understand football.

 

KC thought they could grab Cassell of the Pats* and make him awesome. How did that turn out?

 

Brees is not my benchmark for anything related to this team. I may have used him as an analogy and others have. Brees is a different animal than Allen. Allen has a higher upside but a much lower floor.

 

Systems, GMs, and coaching make QBs more than QBs are great by themselves. It's exceptionally rare a QB is so great that he excels the disaster of their team. If you think Teddy Bridgewater would lead many teams to 5-0 this year let me know which teams that would be.

 

Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel are not even comparable in terms of talent to Patrick Mahomes. They are not even in the ballpark. Systems and GMs and coaching are really important in in getting the best out of talent. They can make elite talent look all-world which is what KC have done for Mahomes. But he would still be elite without it. They can also make an average QB look better than average - which is what Sean Payton did for Bridgewater for example.

 

I completely reject this theory that has started to creep into the thinking on this board the past year or so that any moderately highly rated draft prospect comes into the league as the same and the ones who get well coached go on to be good and the ones that get badly coached fail. Guys come into the league at very different points and their potential at that point is also different.

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16 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

Boom goes their salary cap.

 

The salary cap goes up every year. Okay, a new CBA is an unknown in that but the cap has consistently gone up $10-12m a year since 2014. You sign your QB to what appears a "massive" deal in any one year and within two years time it never looks that way. Sign Mahomes to $40m a year now..... it looks a huge chunk of your cap. Add $25m per year to the cap over the next two years and it looks more manageable by 2022.

 

Yes, the Chiefs will have to release some talent. That is the way paying a top flight QB works. But you can still win that way.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I completely reject this theory that has started to creep into the thinking on this board the past year or so that any moderately highly rated draft prospect comes into the league as the same and the ones who get well coached go on to be good and the ones that get badly coached fail. Guys come into the league at very different points and their potential at that point is also different.

 

Great point and we should, as a board, call this out and debunk it as much as we can otherwise it just constantly festers in the background until it rears its ugly head again. 

 

A lot has to do with football IQ and their competitive drive to get better, provide they have the natural athletic talent to go with it. NFL history is littered with athletic specimens that don't have a brain in their skull or don't care to hone their craft. The NFL actually has a lot of marginal athletic talent, but high football IQ and a strong fire within playing at good levels. Obviously the players with very poor athleticism washout as well. 

 

The definition of a "deep" draft is my biggest pet peeve right now LOL. 

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13 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Mahomes would not have flourished under many HCs in the NFL. Being elite isn't the same as having a great coach to hide your weaknesses and push your strengths.

 

If you think he if was drafted under Marvin Lewis's Bengals, or Hue Jackson's Browns he'd throw 50 TDs you wouldn't understand football.

 

KC thought they could grab Cassell of the Pats* and make him awesome. How did that turn out?

 

Brees is not my benchmark for anything related to this team. I may have used him as an analogy and others have. Brees is a different animal than Allen. Allen has a higher upside but a much lower floor.

 

Systems, GMs, and coaching make QBs more than QBs are great by themselves. It's exceptionally rare a QB is so great that he excels the disaster of their team. If you think Teddy Bridgewater would lead many teams to 5-0 this year let me know which teams that would be.

You're making SEVERAL strawman arguments here. Of course Bridgewater would be EXTREMELY unlikely to go 5-0 with a bad team. Of course Mahomes wouldn't put up 50!!! TD's if he wasn't in a great system. 

 

None of that discounts the importance of the QB's ability independent the supporting cast. 

 

You're acting like it's an either or proposition when it clearly is not. Yes. The system matters. Alot. So does the QUARTERBACK. Neither of these ideas contradict the other.

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On 2/10/2020 at 12:06 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

The salary cap goes up every year. Okay, a new CBA is an unknown in that but the cap has consistently gone up $10-12m a year since 2014. You sign your QB to what appears a "massive" deal in any one year and within two years time it never looks that way. Sign Mahomes to $40m a year now..... it looks a huge chunk of your cap. Add $25m per year to the cap over the next two years and it looks more manageable by 2022.

 

Yes, the Chiefs will have to release some talent. That is the way paying a top flight QB works. But you can still win that way.

Can you name one team that win the Super Bowl again or went to the Championship game after giving their rookie QB the big contract? 
Can’t say NE, Brady always signed a team friendly deal. 
 

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4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Can you name one team that win the Super Bowl again or went to the Championship game after giving their rookie QB the big contract? 
Can’t say NE, Brady always signed a team friendly deal. 
 

 

What, like the 49ers with Jimmy G? Falcons with Matt Ryan? Denver with Manning? They all went to Superbowls while having a QB in the top 5 or 6 of $ per year. 

 

There have been teams recently - the Chiefs, Rams, Eagles, Seahawks - who have loaded up around a QB on a rookie deal and that is a way to win too. It is why I have advocated the Bills taking a few risks this year to load up around Allen - if he takes another step they have a window to make a run. But it isn't the only way to have success. 

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On 2/9/2020 at 2:15 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

No he wouldn't. 

 

Why is it? If I am Dak Prescott I am not settling for being between Jimmy G and Kirk Cousins. That is what Jacoby Brissett signed for. I am Dak there is no way you can tell me I am equal to Jacoby freaking Brissett. I am seeking to be in the Goff and Wentz range. 

 

 

so everyone suffers cuz brisset is wildly overpaid by a dumranchise? 

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On 2/9/2020 at 4:09 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

You do know Jacoby Brissett makes $15 mil a year year right?  $33 does not equal $15 mil.

Jimmy G is paid $27 mil/yr

Cousins is paid $28 mil a year.

 

QBs get paid based on projection of what other QBs will be paid in the future. Dak is still way too unproven with Cooper at WR as the only way he could even have any success.

 

I'd pay him $25 or let him walk.

 

 

Everybody ripped the Cousins contract, but three years later it doesn’t look that bad.  The same feeling will be had about Dak three years from now IMO.

 

Its easy to rip Prescott, but hes better than any QB the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins have had in nearly 25 years. These guys are really tough to find. 

 

Is getting rid of your QB so you can give Byron Jones and Amari Cooper a bad contract the right decision?  

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On 2/10/2020 at 11:27 AM, Chicken Boo said:

Depends on how competitive Pat would like his teams to be.  I understand wanting to be paid what you're worth, but he's going to have to weigh that with keeping talent on the rest of the roster.

 

I understand your point, but folks forget Mahomes is still a very young player. Think about how much better Russell Wilson got over the years-its scary to think about how good that kid could be. 

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5 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Everybody ripped the Cousins contract, but three years later it doesn’t look that bad.  The same feeling will be had about Dak three years from now IMO.

 

Its easy to rip Prescott, but hes better than any QB the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins have had in nearly 25 years. These guys are really tough to find. 

 

Is getting rid of your QB so you can give Byron Jones and Amari Cooper a bad contract the right decision?  

 

This is 100% correct. Same with Derek Carr. Remember when for about 2 months he was the highest paid player in football there was outrage. He is now the 11th highest paid QB. The point is the market just keeps going up and while revenues are up and the cap is going up that isn't going to change. The new CBA is a bit of an unknown but one shouldn't expect major revisions in the approach. 

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7 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Everybody ripped the Cousins contract, but three years later it doesn’t look that bad.  The same feeling will be had about Dak three years from now IMO.

 

Its easy to rip Prescott, but hes better than any QB the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins have had in nearly 25 years. These guys are really tough to find. 

 

Is getting rid of your QB so you can give Byron Jones and Amari Cooper a bad contract the right decision?  

 

I'm more of the opinion that you take the Matt Moores/Andy Daltons/Trent Edwards (pre-concussion)  of the world who would be 8% of your cap (Moore is a backup, but if he was a starter I think he would be close to Dalton). You at least have a shot of a great defense and decent running game.

 

I really think the best franchise model which is copy potential is the Steelers. Yes Big Ben turned out to be elite, but even if he wasn't they still would have won a lot of games, and won a SB playing as a game manager. Even guys like Duck Hodges can win in their model.

 

The reason why our QB system sucked so long is we didn't invest in QBs in the draft. I'm of the belief you draft a QB in rounds 2-4 (if the talent fits) every 2 years until you get a solid one or roll the dice in the 1st with a great QB out of college. If they turn out to be elite then pay them or find one in the Dalton mold that so you can continue to play elite defense and run the ball.

 

I wanted the Bills to pick up Carr in the 2nd, Watson in the 2nd, Barkley in the 3rd (years back) and a bunch of no-names games that flamed out in the 3rd and 4th round. If one turns out to be elite you pay them and if not you go to next one. If one is a solid mid-tier guy you extend him as a mid-tier (Daltoneque contract) and save money for D & Oline.

 

I think drafting a 1st rounder QB is too risky unless you had a strong pedigree in college. It polarizes fans to root for them even if they suck and it puts too much pressure on the front-office to make him work or look like a clown. A 2nd rounder like Rudolph can get benched for Duck Hodges to try to win and no one cares. Try doing that to a 1st rounder and the fans start to revolt (Losman vs Edwards debates).

 

Bringing in guys like Fitz, Orton, Taylor, old Bledsoe, etc. who are older guys hoping to be serviceable is just silly. Invest in the pick, save the money and put it back it lines.

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KC has the following players under contract THROUGH 2021 (2 more seasons)

 

Hill

Kelce

Mathieu

Clark

Fisher

Schwartz

Hitchens

Hardman

Butker

Okafor

Thornhill

Nhadi

Saunders

D Thompson

....Mahomes.

 

That's most of the core.

 

Starting QB, WR, WR, OT, OT, TE, MLB, S, S, DT, DT, K...and possibly RB.

 

Chris Jones is the one long term guy we don't have done at this time (and maybe they'd like Charvarious Ward to sign long term, but he's under contract through 2020)

 

That's ALOT of star power already accounted for, no matter what they do with Mahomes.

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People are looking at this backwards.  Mahomes having a market setting contract helps the Chiefs more than it hurts them because he's actually worth it.  If Pat gets $40,000,000 someone like Carson Wentz who is only 50% as good is still going to get 90% of that amount.  Would you rather have Mahomes at $40m or Wentz at $36m?  That's an easy win for the teams that have legit stars.  

 

The teams with good but not elite QBs on second and third contracts are the ones who are going to be hurt the most by this.  That's part of the reason this is such a huge year for Josh.  If he has a season in 2020 similar to or slightly better than 2019, what do you do with him?  He's going to command $35,000,000 a year for 5 years.  Do you pay him?

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9 minutes ago, Billl said:

People are looking at this backwards.  Mahomes having a market setting contract helps the Chiefs more than it hurts them because he's actually worth it.  If Pat gets $40,000,000 someone like Carson Wentz who is only 50% as good is still going to get 90% of that amount.  Would you rather have Mahomes at $40m or Wentz at $36m?  That's an easy win for the teams that have legit stars.  

 

The teams with good but not elite QBs on second and third contracts are the ones who are going to be hurt the most by this.  That's part of the reason this is such a huge year for Josh.  If he has a season in 2020 similar to or slightly better than 2019, what do you do with him?  He's going to command $35,000,000 a year for 5 years.  Do you pay him?

 

If he is the same I don't pay him after next year. I take the 5th year option and wait and see what year 4 brings. If he can improve by even half as much as he improved in 2019 I think yes, you pay him.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If he is the same I don't pay him after next year. I take the 5th year option and wait and see what year 4 brings. If he can improve by even half as much as he improved in 2019 I think yes, you pay him.

And this is why it is imperative to swing big this year in giving him the tools, so you have more information on what we need to do with him. I cannot reconcile myself to buy on a WR prospect who will need 1-2 years to develop; I need a guy who can hit the ground running. This is also why I see TE and RT as big needs for us. Give Josh the tools and talent before we have to pony up some serious $$$

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Who cares? He plays in KC and has nothing to do with the Bills. He played like ***** in the Super Bowl and was a joke of a SB MVP. Had Sherman actually covered glass Joe SF would have won the game. 

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10 hours ago, Yav said:

Who cares? He plays in KC and has nothing to do with the Bills. He played like ***** in the Super Bowl and was a joke of a SB MVP. Had Sherman actually covered glass Joe SF would have won the game. 


1) I would assume that football fans care, mainly the football fans discussing it for five pages.

 

2) Buffalo Bills fans may also care considering that we have a young QB whose next contract will be based on the market that Mahomes sets.


3) You also care considering that you spent moments of your free time reading and commenting on it. And guys like you always respond about how much you don’t actually care, so don’t bother.

 

#badtakes

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