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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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2 hours ago, Foxx said:

aren't there a required minimum number of days?

 

and/or you know... maybe just do things the old fashioned way and boil your friggin' water if your that worried about foreign bodies in it.. 

There are, 180.  The governor said school districts wouldn't be penalized if they didnt meet the 180 days due to the break.  

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2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

It's odd that the homeless population in LA country has so far not been effected. 

 

High risk population, no cases (that I've seen)... Haven't hear much about the homeless in other areas either (WA, OR, Bay Area)... 

 

No one wants to go near them.

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Just now, Doc said:

 

No one wants to go near them.

 

True, but we don't have much of a choice (at least in my neighborhood).

 

It's just strange (to me, a non epidemiologist) that for years we've heard how everything from the plague to TB is spreading through the homeless population and they'd be the bridge to wider infections within the population ... yet with this bug, no reporting on that at all. 

 

This isn't a "it's a conspiracy" type post, just one driven by my own curiosity.

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Report from the front:

 

Went grocery shopping after the gym (9:30am PST).  While it was a bit busier than usual I was able to get all I needed (except my bananas ?).  As a matter of fact there was no one ahead of me at the checker.  I asked if her check stand was closed and she said "no, why do you ask?"  I said "well because there is no on ahead of me"   See it pays to be be the contrarian one.  

 

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1 hour ago, Koko78 said:

 

Because the expectation was that when the weather warmed up getting towards summer, the instances of the virus would decrease.

 

Of course, still being in the early stages of this histrionic nonsense, who knows if it means anything that it's 97 degrees in SE Asia.

right. with no corollary to contrast it, it is hard to know whether or not they would have had higher numbers in cold weather.

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36 minutes ago, bbb said:

 

Do you work from home?  


work is essential to leave sometimes

 

we are free to work at the office or home the next little while. My online University course is set to set Thursday night 

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https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-survivors-may-suffer-from-reduced-lung-function/

 

Some patients who have recovered from the coronavirus have been left with a reduced lung capacity – and left gasping for air when walking briskly, according to a report.

The Hong Kong Hospital Authority announced the findings after studying the first wave of patients who had fully recovered from COVID-19, the South China Morning Post reported.

Three people have died of the illness in the former British colony, which has so far recorded 131 confirmed cases. Among them, 74 people have been discharged.

Dr. Owen Tsang Tak-yin, medical director of the authority’s Infectious Disease Centre at Princess Margaret Hospital in Kwai Chung, said that of about a dozen discharged patients examined, two or three were unable to function as they had previously.

“They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly,” Tsang told reporters Thursday, according to the news outlet. “Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30 percent in lung function [after recovery].” 

Lung scans of nine infected patients at the hospital suggested they had suffered organ damage.

More to read in link

Edited by Buffalo Bills Fan
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I just returned from a trade show on Thursday night late. 
they cancelled the final day of the show. 
my company still has no COVID policy. 
I went to work on Friday still. 
I can totally work from home but with no corporate policy in place that would mean vacation days (I have been coughing for months - probably caught COVID on some of my previous travels). 

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————-

 

went to five stores as usual for the weekly supply, lineups were the usual 

 

water, toilet paper, soap, most meat, bread were gone

 

ham and bacon and ribs were present 

 

any food with a sales sticker was taken by these locusts posing as humans

 

im usually stocked up anyways so I didn’t mind, I got my usual staples and a few luxuries, the pet food store was fully stocked with cat food as well

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https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/like-drowning-in-air-lung-damage-from-serious-coronavirus-cases-may-take-years-to-heal/news-story/45e58e0725a93870bdc11491786e2f6e

 

Thousands of coronavirus victims who survive serious illness will suffer damage to their lungs, heart and other organs, needing up to 15 years for recovery, say intensive care specialists.

The damage done by the virus directly, plus the intensive medical procedures needed to save desperately ill patients, will leave people with lung scarring, nerve damage and psychological trauma, according to warnings from the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine (FICM), the professional body responsible for training intensive care doctors in the UK.

 

The FICM said that some people could regain “apparently normal” lungs after six months, with minimal symptoms such as reduced ability to exercise, but added: “For some, however, it could take as long as 15 years for their lungs to recover.” It also warned of damage to other organs. “Like many other viral conditions, the effects of coronavirus are not just limited to the lungs. The heart can also be affected, ranging from inflammation (myocarditis) to heart failure.”

Nicki Credland, a researcher in critical care at Hull University, who chairs the British Association of Critical Care Nurses, said: “For people who are seriously ill with coronavirus the outlook is very serious.” She warned of “tough choices” to come, with doctors potentially having to select whom they should save - a process known as triage. She said: “If we see the kind of numbers we’ve seen in Italy, then we will have to select those who are most likely to survive, and the rest will be in ordinary beds and have to take their chances.”

 

More info in link

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/like-drowning-in-air-lung-damage-from-serious-coronavirus-cases-may-take-years-to-heal/news-story/45e58e0725a93870bdc11491786e2f6e

 

Thousands of coronavirus victims who survive serious illness will suffer damage to their lungs, heart and other organs, needing up to 15 years for recovery, say intensive care specialists.

The damage done by the virus directly, plus the intensive medical procedures needed to save desperately ill patients, will leave people with lung scarring, nerve damage and psychological trauma, according to warnings from the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine (FICM), the professional body responsible for training intensive care doctors in the UK.

 

The FICM said that some people could regain “apparently normal” lungs after six months, with minimal symptoms such as reduced ability to exercise, but added: “For some, however, it could take as long as 15 years for their lungs to recover.” It also warned of damage to other organs. “Like many other viral conditions, the effects of coronavirus are not just limited to the lungs. The heart can also be affected, ranging from inflammation (myocarditis) to heart failure.”

Nicki Credland, a researcher in critical care at Hull University, who chairs the British Association of Critical Care Nurses, said: “For people who are seriously ill with coronavirus the outlook is very serious.” She warned of “tough choices” to come, with doctors potentially having to select whom they should save - a process known as triage. She said: “If we see the kind of numbers we’ve seen in Italy, then we will have to select those who are most likely to survive, and the rest will be in ordinary beds and have to take their chances.”

 

More info in link

Yet another reason to NOT have government run health care. 

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23 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

It's odd that the homeless population in LA country has so far not been effected. 

 

High risk population, no cases (that I've seen)... Haven't hear much about the homeless in other areas either (WA, OR, Bay Area)... 

Probably no one is testing them.

 

florida cases are rapidly increasing.  If any area will be like Italy, it's FL.

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21 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

True, but we don't have much of a choice (at least in my neighborhood).

 

It's just strange (to me, a non epidemiologist) that for years we've heard how everything from the plague to TB is spreading through the homeless population and they'd be the bridge to wider infections within the population ... yet with this bug, no reporting on that at all. 

 

This isn't a "it's a conspiracy" type post, just one driven by my own curiosity.

 

They need to come in contact with someone who has it.  Those other diseases were already prevalent in the US.  And it could be as TPS said that no one is testing/cares about them.

 

 

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50 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

There are, 180.  The governor said school districts wouldn't be penalized if they didnt meet the 180 days due to the break.  

that's ***** up so we just throw out the curriculum?

 

 

 

wait, what the hell am i talking about our kids are coming out of the 'schooling' so ***** up, they threw it out a long time ago. let's just give them participation trophies and call it even.

 

hell, we will just declare them all edumacated and whala, they are graduated!!

isn't that what we have going now anyways??

 

 

34 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

It's odd that the homeless population in LA country has so far not been effected. 

 

High risk population, no cases (that I've seen)... Haven't hear much about the homeless in other areas either (WA, OR, Bay Area)... 

are you kidding? they won't report these numbers in the Democrat controlled districts. can't have Nancy and Ted looking like the incompetent fools they are.

Edited by Foxx
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...how the 'eff this skank even still has a job is beyond me.....

 

De Blasio considering NYC lockdown amid coronavirus surge

New York Post

 

New York City’s coronavirus cases have skyrocketed in less than a week from 25 on Monday to 269 Sunday as Mayor Bill de Blasio considers locking down the Big Apple to contain the outbreak.

“Every option is on the table in a crisis,” de Blasio said Sunday morning on CNN.

“We’ve never seen anything like this,” he said.

 

De Blasio expects the city’s coronavirus tally to rise to 1,000 in the next few days.

 

“It’s changing every hour so we’re going to constantly make new decisions,” de Blasio said about the dynamic public health emergency.

 

He also called on the Trump administration to assume a war-time footing.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/de-blasio-considering-nyc-lockdown-amid-coronavirus-surge

 

 

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The British approach to coronavirus

by  Tyler Cowen March 14, 2020 at 12:15 am

Not sure how aware you are of what’s happening here but the British government is taking a decidedly different approach to most other nations. They are not shutting schools or cancelling large gatherings or recommending self-isolation. They’re taking a longer view and saying if that happens it will be a way off yet. The policy is led by the scientists.

 

It’s a very bold approach, the govt is coming under a lot of pressure to do what other nations are doing, there’s a lot of shouting to DO MORE, but so far they’re ignoring it. It’s kind of fascinating to see it play out. If you have time, today’s press conference is really worth a watch, the chief scientific and health advisers give a pretty detailed explanation of what they’re doing (Johnson introduces and then the scientists start talking at 31.50). They don’t say this explicitly but their bet is that what China and South Korea are doing is not economically or psychologically sustainable and will just lead to another peak. (My friend has drawn a cute visual explanation of the thinking here).

 

In this press conference they also make a pretty persuasive case that cancelling large gatherings is pointless and may be counter-productive.

 

…One more thing – good summary of the arguments the govt scientists made in that press conference, in this Guardian report. eg “closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%. Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms … have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective”

 

That is from an Ian Leslie email.  I am skeptical about this approach (is it politically sustainable?), but we will know more soon.  Here is another good explanation, by another guy named Ian:

 

3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.

4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

 

 

And here is a polemic critique of the British strategy.  Continuing…

 

 

.

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6 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...the infection and mortality rates are similar to the annual flu season......however, there is some "peace of mind" knowing that flu vaccine is available annually even though it is effective for certain strains only....

Experts aren't sure by how much but they're all in agreement the mortality rates are higher and it's more easily transmissible.  If the death rate is 1% which is the lowest estimate I've seen that's 10 times deadlier than the average flu strain (.1% death rate).  So, as it exponentially increases you could be looking at more than 50 million people with the virus.  That's 500,000 deaths which warps the average number of deaths every year from the flu which is usually under 40,000 per year.  That's the reason the world is freaking out.

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Dash's has suspended deliveries :blink: We are now in instacart with Tops. We started the order with a late evening Monday delivery, and as we've filled up the cart it is now into a Tuesday morning delivery.  I wanted Whole Foods, Hubby told me to suck it up and stick with Tops. ?

Good thing this is only for fresh stuff and tortilla chips. We will not starve, but not being able to go out for fresh groceries kinda sucks. It is amazing how spoiled as a population we are... I want fresh foods, and I want 'em now!

 

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3 minutes ago, Foxx said:

the population in Italy, on average is considerably older which could quite possibly explain the rapid increase.

Yes, which is why their death rate is high, but the number of cases accelerating is due To their slow initial response. Their older population is why I said Florida will be like Italy. 

 

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6 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yes, which is why their death rate is high, but the number of cases accelerating is due To their slow initial response. Their older population is why I said Florida will be like Italy. 

 

let's hope not.

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