Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills: 4 advanced stats that could tell the story

[HOUSE]

NFL NextGen Stats provided the numbers

that show the Ravens rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams when it comes to stopping runners outside of the tackles. When opponents avoid Baltimore’s big run-stuffers like Brandon Williams and Michel Pierce, they often find success testing the Ravens’ thin group of outside linebackers.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-ravens/2019/12/baltimore-ravens-vs-buffalo-bills-4-advanced-stats-that-could-tell-the-story.html

[TroutDog]

Singletary, McKenzie and Foster off the edge... ? 

[Juice_32]

3 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Singletary, McKenzie and Foster off the edge... ? 

Bingo! I’d imagine the run game will look similar to the second half plan they had against the jests in the opener.

[aristocrat]

Slow down their run game and take away the pass and we can win this game 

[BehindTheWoodshed]

Man, I just want Sunday to be here already.

[HOUSE]

1 hour ago, BehindTheWoodshed said:

Man, I just want Sunday to be here already.

Welcome to the board, we are giving out special awards today.

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by HOUSE

[BehindTheWoodshed]

1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

Welcome to the board, we are giving out special awards today.

Hopefully not a box of the cinnamon bacon doughnut cereal that John Murphy eats, yuck.

[BuffaloMatt]

If we score more points than them we will win. I agree I need Sunday to be here already. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

47 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

NFL NextGen Stats provided the numbers

that show the Ravens rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams when it comes to stopping runners outside of the tackles. When opponents avoid Baltimore’s big run-stuffers like Brandon Williams and Michel Pierce, they often find success testing the Ravens’ thin group of outside linebackers.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-ravens/2019/12/baltimore-ravens-vs-buffalo-bills-4-advanced-stats-that-could-tell-the-story.html

 

So,  no runs up the middle then ...  If it were only so simple.  

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

11 minutes ago, BehindTheWoodshed said:

Hopefully not a box of the cinnamon bacon doughnut cereal that John Murphy eats, yuck.

What? What kind of cereal is this and how do you know Murph eats it?

Knowing how NFL game plans often go, we'll probably run up the middle exclusively since they'll be expecting us to attack the edge.

[BehindTheWoodshed]

3 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

What? What kind of cereal is this and how do you know Murph eats it?

Knowing how NFL game plans often go, we'll probably run up the middle exclusively since they'll be expecting us to attack the edge.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/221052-wegman’s-re-launching-flutie-flakes-for-ravens-game/page/2/#comments

 

Oh, they are Maple Bacon Doughnuts, my mistake. So they probably taste great.

[Rockinon]

Josh rolling out as well.  Going to be an interesting game. I don't think they can stop our speedy receivers either. The best defense against this team is an efficient offense. Long sustained drives that keep our defense rested, and of course ending in TDs. If our D can get a couple of key stops in this game, the offense can pull ahead. Put the pressure on Lamar's arm. Make him play to our strength....stopping the pass.  They can absolutely be beaten. Have to admit though, this ain't going to be easy. Hope the D did their homework on those run concepts with that extra time.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Rockinon
grammar

[Hapless Bills Fan]

59 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

NFL NextGen Stats provided the numbers

that show the Ravens rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams when it comes to stopping runners outside of the tackles. When opponents avoid Baltimore’s big run-stuffers like Brandon Williams and Michel Pierce, they often find success testing the Ravens’ thin group of outside linebackers.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-ravens/2019/12/baltimore-ravens-vs-buffalo-bills-4-advanced-stats-that-could-tell-the-story.html

 

If I'm reading this right, this stat applies to attempts.  What would be the stat per completions?  Anyone?

That really doesn't pass the eyeball test to what I see as Buffalo's success in the pass game

 

3) Josh Allen averages 9 intended air yards per pass

Many of the toughest opponents the Ravens have faced during their winning streak — like the Steelers, Patriots and 49ers — center their offenses around short passes. The Bills are different.

Buffalo likes to lean on the running game and then let Allen air the ball out deep. His 9 air yards per pass attempt are tied for the sixth most in the NFL, according to NextGen Stats, and it helps that Allen has a target at his disposal like wide receiver John Brown.

The former Raven has averaged 14.5 yards per catch this season and helps the Bills stretch the field.

Baltimore cornerbacks Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey will face a challenge Sunday.

[Gugny]

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If I'm reading this right, this stat applies to attempts.  What would be the stat per completions?  Anyone?

That really doesn't pass the eyeball test to what I see as Buffalo's success in the pass game

 

3) Josh Allen averages 9 intended air yards per pass

Many of the toughest opponents the Ravens have faced during their winning streak — like the Steelers, Patriots and 49ers — center their offenses around short passes. The Bills are different.

Buffalo likes to lean on the running game and then let Allen air the ball out deep. His 9 air yards per pass attempt are tied for the sixth most in the NFL, according to NextGen Stats, and it helps that Allen has a target at his disposal like wide receiver John Brown.

The former Raven has averaged 14.5 yards per catch this season and helps the Bills stretch the field.

Baltimore cornerbacks Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey will face a challenge Sunday.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards

 

Josh's completed air yards are 6.2 (9th).  League leader is Stafford with 8.3.  Jackson = 6.5.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Gugny

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards

 

Josh's completed air yards are 6.2.  League leader is Stafford with 8.3.  Jackson = 6.5.

 

 

I have not sees any Ravens games. but in the highlights I saw a lot of guys open down field IMO because the defenses were too worried about him running leaving guys open so Lamont could lob the ball to them.  

You lob a ball in the direction of White, Hyde or Poyer ... watch out 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

I have not sees any Ravens games. but in the highlights I saw a lot of guys open down field IMO because the defenses were too worried about him running leaving guys open so Lamont could lob the ball to them.  

You lob a ball in the direction of White, Hyde or Poyer ... watch out 

 

From what I've seen, he's not much of a lobber.  He throws accurate darts to his large targets in the middle of the field - but not deep.

[billsfan1959]

There are two stats that matters to me:

 

1. For the year, Jackson is averaging  6.8 YPC and 84 YPG, and over their 8 game winning streak, he is averaging 7.11 YPC and 92 YPG. They need to limit him to under 6 YPC and 50 yards for the game.

 

2. The Ravens are the number one blitzing team in the NFL and it isn't even close. They blitz on 52% of QB dropbacks. While Allen has gotten better over the last three weeks, for the season, he has only completed 57% of his passes when blitzed for 8 TDs and 3 INTs, and 15 of his 27 sacks have come on blitzes. If Daboll and Allen try to dial up longer developing, deeper routes, like they did in the NE game, then it will be a long game. This is a game for the quick, short to intermediate routes and for Allen to use his legs a little more.

 

Edit:

 

3. I will add a couple more stats. The Ravens are number 1 in yards per drive and  points per drive - and when they get inside the opponent's 40 yard line, they score points. They have failed to score points on only 4 drives inside the 40 all year (by contrast, the Bills have failed to score on 30 drives inside the opponent's 40). The Bills defense is going to have to find a way to limit longer, sustained drives by the Ravens.

Edited December 4, 2019 by billsfan1959

[PaattMaann]

50 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

From what I've seen, he's not much of a lobber.  He throws accurate darts to his large targets in the middle of the field - but not deep.

 

This is EXACTLY what I have seen. He throws to the middle of the field really well, and usually guys are wide open. He hasn't shown a lot of deep balls, or most importantly, passes to the outside. Defense needs to scheme up a way to force those outside throws....jam the middle of the field with LBs and move the safeties up inside the hash to take away as many middle field throws as possible. Should be the focus on stopping the passing game. The run game is another issue, but hopefully those ideas go hand in hand. Crowd the box/the middle and dare Lamar to be able to beat you over the top. I don't know that he can. Their offense is plenty dangerous without having to do that though. Gotta force them into trying that if possible 

[TigerJ]

The outside runs stuck out to me in the San Francisco game.  The 49ers hardly even tried to run inside, but attacked the perimeter a lot.  When you look at their interior defensive linemen and their outside linebackers, it's easy to see why.  Frank Gore should have another light week.

[MJS]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Slow down their run game and take away the pass and we can win this game 

So basically stop them on offense, haha.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

From what I've seen, he's not much of a lobber.  He throws accurate darts to his large targets in the middle of the field - but not deep.

I agree with this but i'll add that its absurd how open his targets are. not just on the broken plays either. roman is scheming guys comically open.... I think Jackson has thrown well. I also don't think the degree of difficulty on his throws has been very high. 

 

I guess the challenge is finding a way to limit those wide open players and sifting through all the deception they use to do it. 

[aristocrat]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

So basically stop them on offense, haha.

 

basically what the niners did.  he threw for 105 yards, they only ran for 160 yards i think.  they normally have over 200 yards rushing and 100 more pass yards.  not stop them, slow them down and take away huge runs.  lamar's longest run was 14 yards so they took away the highlight runs.  ingram had like 60 yards.  

[RyanC883]

key will be haivng a spy on Jackson (Edmonds or Milano), and having great CB and safety play.  do that, and we should be able to contain their offense. 

 

ALSO, WE ARE A KEY.  LETS BE LOUD AT THE GAME.  12TH MAN TIME!!!!

[MJS]

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

key will be haivng a spy on Jackson (Edmonds or Milano), and having great CB and safety play.  do that, and we should be able to contain their offense. 

 

ALSO, WE ARE A KEY.  LETS BE LOUD AT THE GAME.  12TH MAN TIME!!!!

Spying Jackson with a linebacker might not work. I wonder if they could spy with a guy like Taron Johnson.

[fan_in_tx]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

NFL NextGen Stats provided the numbers

that show the Ravens rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams when it comes to stopping runners outside of the tackles. When opponents avoid Baltimore’s big run-stuffers like Brandon Williams and Michel Pierce, they often find success testing the Ravens’ thin group of outside linebackers.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-ravens/2019/12/baltimore-ravens-vs-buffalo-bills-4-advanced-stats-that-could-tell-the-story.html

Jet Sweep - fakes/ reverse etc etc and screen pass if we can ever setup correctly

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 hours ago, Rockinon said:

Josh rolling out as well.  Going to be an interesting game. I don't think they can stop our speedy receivers either. The best defense against this team is an efficient offense. Long sustained drives that keep our defense rested, and of course ending in TDs. If our D can get a couple of key stops in this game, the offense can pull ahead. Put the pressure on Lamar's arm. Make him play to our strength....stopping the pass.  They can absolutely be beaten. Have to admit though, this ain't going to be easy. Hope the D did their homework on those run concepts with that extra time.

 

I think this is it. Their defense looks good because they are hardly on the field- that offense just drains clock. It is so demoralizing, which is part of the reason they look so dominant (that and the ridiculous amount of points they score). 

 

You have to get ahead of them. This is a good game to open the game receiving the kick off. I don't think we can come from behind. If we are behind, the game is over. 

[Mango]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Slow down their run game and take away the pass and we can win this game 

 

I mean...if you can do that to any opponent, you will win much more than you lose regardless of opponent. 

[Bronxbomber21]

We need to stop the run and defend the middle of the field from the 100 slants they run a game we need a huge day from Hyde & Poyer and the LBs

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This is a good game to open the game receiving the kick off.

 

Agreed. I would almost always defer to the 2nd half but I'd make an exception for this one. If they get a lead of more than 7 points they can control the whole game. We can't afford a slow start. The Ravens are not built to come from behind.

[LJs Bodyguard]

The Raven's D caught fire once we traded for Marcus Peters. At the same time, our other starting CB Jimmy Smith came back from injury. The scary thing is Marlon Humphrey is our #1 corner, Jimmy Smith #2, and Marcus Peters #3. We basically have 3 #1 corner's, plus Earl Thomas roaming back there. Also, a major surprise is our 6th round pick safety, Chuck Clark who has been a major upgrade over Tony Jefferson. Having that strong of a secondary is what allows the Ravens the freedom to blitz on over 50% of their defensive snaps. The one weakness the Ravens do have, like the article pointed out, is runs along the edge. Our defensive ends are good at setting the edge, but we struggle against teams that have a good fullback and good blocking tight end, like the 49ers have. Do the bills have a good blocking tight end or fullback?

[Steptide]

I suspect if daboll knows this, we see alot of jet sweeps and play action pass/run 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, LJs Bodyguard said:

The Raven's D caught fire once we traded for Marcus Peters. At the same time, our other starting CB Jimmy Smith came back from injury. The scary thing is Marlon Humphrey is our #1 corner, Jimmy Smith #2, and Marcus Peters #3. We basically have 3 #1 corner's, plus Earl Thomas roaming back there. Also, a major surprise is our 6th round pick safety, Chuck Clark who has been a major upgrade over Tony Jefferson. Having that strong of a secondary is what allows the Ravens the freedom to blitz on over 50% of their defensive snaps. The one weakness the Ravens do have, like the article pointed out, is runs along the edge. Our defensive ends are good at setting the edge, but we struggle against teams that have a good fullback and good blocking tight end, like the 49ers have. Do the bills have a good blocking tight end or fullback?

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=Bills+fullbacks+and+tight+ends

[Stallions]

10 hours ago, TigerJ said:

The outside runs stuck out to me in the San Francisco game.  The 49ers hardly even tried to run inside, but attacked the perimeter a lot.  When you look at their interior defensive linemen and their outside linebackers, it's easy to see why.  Frank Gore should have another light week.

Good observation! 

[CSBill]

So basically, keep them (Jackson) inside and do our own runs outside. Got it.