Week 11: Bills at Dolphins - Spread: Bills -6.5

[Philo]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Everything with Allen comes down to the game slowing down for him.

 

Always has.

 

When folks criticized his accuracy at Wyoming, what they were really seeing is him reacting late and rushing throws, which sent them sailing/diving.

 

He's clearly made strides, as evidenced by his leading the league in comp % under 20 yards through 8 weeks...but he's got a ways to go yet.

 

As for his deep ball, he's got to stop trying so hard to be "touchy"; just rip it in there.

 

QBs develop in different ways. Some guys come into the league "ready" a la Dak and Andrew Luck. That's not Josh. Some guys have a base level and are a "light comes on" kind of guy like Goff or Brees, where they make a meteoric jump early on. That may be Josh, but my guy tells me no.

 

Then there's the guy that develops in "levels". He's got a lot to figure out, so it takes longer. He goes from super raw to survival, from survival to game management, from game management to competent, etc. Some of these guys (like Fitz or Tannehill) never get beyond a certain level. Some, like McNabb and Stafford, progress from competent to franchise QB.

 

We've seen that Allen can hit new levels. Some might say he's a game manager, others might call him competent, and folks like myself will say he's probably in the process of going from game manager to competent. 

 

What's truly exciting about Allen is what he will become if what we're seeing is the development, and if he does in fact have another 1 or two levels left to hit.

 

Great post and breakdown of the growth progression for JA. I agree he is somewhere in that transition between game manager and competent. He needs to make that next step where he can "play fearless" while avoiding the bad hero ball moments. Play loose and comfortable and keep making strides the rest of the season.

 

Next year should be when we expect to see that progression from competent to franchise. 

 

Oh, and get him a true dominant #1 WR too.

[DuckyBoys]

He's getting better  Its not going to be linear.  The stupid ints have dropped off.  So have the panic sacks and immediately fleeing the pocket.  He's had some bad luck on ball security and needs to cover the rock while in traffic.  Terrible on the deep ball but that will come.  McCoach got into his head to not put the defense into a bind with picks.  We desperately need a big physical playmaker on the outside to let Brown slide into the #2 role.  Daboll needs to use more play action and put that back into the flat to give Allen another safety valve. Why is Yeldon even on the team this is what he is known for ?  he should be catching a few dumps each game as should Singeltary   Lot of snaps he doesnt have time to come back to the read on the other side that you see open (kid is still getting hit too much on or just after his release)  O line needs to get better executing screens.  Some of that is on Allen, he needs to sell them better.  Daboll needs to spend majority of his time working in easier hot reads to beat the blitz  We shouldnt have to rely /force the qb and receiver to execute 20 yard fades and down field throws when we need 4 yards for a first down  Brady throws a pass to the flat or hits Edelman on a jerk route when they need 5 or less. 

[Coach Tuesday]

56 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

my wife is always yelling at me for my use of the pause and rewind buttons.  
 

 

It's all about rhythm.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Chris66]

Vegas is pretty confident in the bills this week. Moneyline

Bills -305

Dolphins +245

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Allen has work to do, let me get that out of the way first.

 

Now I'll move on to this: Knox, like pretty much every other skill position player on this team, makes absolutely no aggressive attempt for the football on 100% of his targets. Our guys simply let DBs beat them to the ball...a LOT.

 

Knoc has let it happen multiple times, Brown does it at least once or twice per game. McKenzie too.

 

They just wait for the ball. Attack it. Make a play. Help your QB. It won't fix everything, but it'll certainly make a difference on 2-3 key plays per game.

 

If you become an expert at hitting the pause button, you can show a handful of "this guy is wide open" plays for every QB every game.

 

Of course, you won't know the route combination, progression, or player keys that tell the QB where he "should" go with the ball, so it's kind of silly to over analyze.

This is the most significant difference with our receivers.  We don't have anyone that goes and gets the 50/50 balls. 

[GG]

6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

This is the most significant difference with our receivers.  We don't have anyone that goes and gets the 50/50 balls. 

 

We do, but he's slow and has been inactive for 2 weeks.

[Tatonka68]

16 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Bills 7th best blocking OL played against the 31st Cleveland run defense and ran 14 running plays. But it's not Daboll's fault?? This week Miami allows 146 yards a game and 4.6 a carry. So expect 47 pass attempts. 

[RiotAct]

Just now, Tatonka68 said:

Bills 7th best blocking OL played against the 31st Cleveland run defense and ran 14 running plays. But it's not Daboll's fault?? This week Miami allows 146 yards a game and 4.6 a carry. So expect 47 pass attempts. 

“Obviously”

 

— Douglas Marrone 

[MiltonWaddams]

2 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Bills 7th best blocking OL played against the 31st Cleveland run defense and ran 14 running plays. But it's not Daboll's fault?? This week Miami allows 146 yards a game and 4.6 a carry. So expect 47 pass attempts. 

I’m thinking we should load up on carries for Gore. Singletary has shown to be very effective so work away from that strength.

[SydneyBillsFan]

On 11/12/2019 at 2:41 PM, CaptnCoke11 said:

Look out Miami here come to Bills to beat you 10-9

 

What, 5 safeties to 3 field goals??

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

What, 5 safeties to 3 field goals??

Five safeties to three safeties and a field goal

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[GoBills808]

We're going to Myles Garrett those fish on Sunday

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/7-things-to-watch-for-in-bills-at-dolphins-week-11

 

1. WHAT DOES FEARLESS LOOK LIKE?

After losing two of their last three, head coach Sean McDermott has challenged his team to play fearlessly. That’s what quarterback Josh Allen told the media this week.

Veteran Center Mitch Morse says it’s not just the quarterback. He said McDermott is challenging the team to play more freely and instinctively.

“I think there is something to that,” Morse said this week. “We don’t need to change everything just because we lost one game, but I think we need to look at what gets us stuck in certain situations. When you think too much on the football field you don’t play as fast. And that doesn’t mean you don’t think, that means be confident in yourself. Be confident in the group of guys with you.  Maybe sometimes less is more when it comes to communication part. Go out and just play football.”

 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/7-things-to-watch-for-in-bills-at-dolphins-week-11

 

1. WHAT DOES FEARLESS LOOK LIKE?

After losing two of their last three, head coach Sean McDermott has challenged his team to play fearlessly. That’s what quarterback Josh Allen told the media this week.

Veteran Center Mitch Morse says it’s not just the quarterback. He said McDermott is challenging the team to play more freely and instinctively.

“I think there is something to that,” Morse said this week. “We don’t need to change everything just because we lost one game, but I think we need to look at what gets us stuck in certain situations. When you think too much on the football field you don’t play as fast. And that doesn’t mean you don’t think, that means be confident in yourself. Be confident in the group of guys with you.  Maybe sometimes less is more when it comes to communication part. Go out and just play football.”

 

 

The Morse comments are interesting.  Could this be related to Daboll having an overly complex offense?  I can't shake that interview of John Brown I heard on Sirius earlier in the season where he commented that this was by far the most complicated offense he had ever played in.

 

 

[SydneyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Five safeties to three safeties and a field goal

 

Beat the fish and move to 7-3?

 

I'll take it!!

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[GoBills808]

I will be playing BUF-6.5 and the under. Some other plays I think have value-

 

DET+250 and the over

JAGS+2.5

JETS+2.5

CAR-4.5 and under

 

and spreading out some on dogs-

 

CHI+250

HOU+175 (and probably over parlay)

 

 

[Nextmanup]

7 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

I’m thinking we should load up on carries for Gore. Singletary has shown to be very effective so work away from that strength.

This made me literally laugh out loud.

 

Thanks for that!

 

[Nextmanup]

On 11/14/2019 at 4:39 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

 

 

Yep and Allen was half a second late in getting the ball to him.  That's how close we are to substantially elevating this pass game.  And I see no reason that with more experience Allen makes that throw on time.

 

But what the picture doesn't tell you unless you look real close is that Allen is probably already feeling the heat of the Brown's DE who has badly beaten our Tackle on an inside move (I believe that's Garret) so Allen must continue moving to avoid the sack.

 

And what the picture doesn't show you is that on the pass, which was a half second late, Knox doesn't take a step towards the ball which allows the DB to close the gap and bat the ball away.  Had Knox took a step forward, like a lot of pass savvy TE's would do, he either catches the ball by shielding it from the DB or the DB commits PI.

 

Finally, while I appreciate DeMarco's help in pointing out the guy breaking open WHAT THE HELL IS HE DOING DOWNFIELD on the route.  How many times have we hit him with a pass 15 yards field in the middle of the field?  Wouldn't he have been more useful helping our tackle block Garret on that play?  Just saying.

 

 

You basically wrote that you do not think Allen will improve with experience, and that he will not make this throw in the future.

 

I think you meant exactly the opposite.

Which was it, for clarity?

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Bob in STL]

This is a game I should worry about.  Dolphins playing inspired football and would love to win a division game.  The game in Miami. 

 

Normally this would be major choke game number 1.  So it probably won’t be. 

 

McD is telling them to put petal on metal so maybe this week the offense plays great and we win 31-13 like we should. 

[Franco_92]

As bad as I felt about last week's game leading up to it, I feel really good about this one.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I would activate Yeldon and slide Gore to the 3rd rb. More Singletary is what we need every week. I’d give Singletary 25 touches if it was up to me. Sprinkle in some 2 back stuff with some passes to Yeldon out of the backfield. The time to move on from Gore was 2 weeks ago but now will do.

[Albany,n.y.]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I will be playing BUF-6.5 and the under. Some other plays I think have value-

 

DET+250 and the over

JAGS+2.5

JETS+2.5

CAR-4.5 and under

 

and spreading out some on dogs-

 

CHI+250

HOU+175 (and probably over parlay)

 

 

The money has been coming in on the Bills all week since Tuesday.  I got the Bills at -5.5 @ -110 on Tuesday.  I just looked at the casino odds where I bet the game & it's up to -6.5 @ -115.  

I didn't bet over/under.  

[njbuff]

Joe Benigno picked the Dolphins and whatever Joe picks, always go with the opposite.

 

?

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

You basically wrote that you do not think Allen will improve with experience, and that he will not make this throw in the future.

 

I think you meant exactly the opposite.

Which was it, for clarity?

 

 

 

My point was that Allen made the right read and got the ball to the TE but was probably a half second slow in doing so.  My 2 main points:

 

1)  As Allen gains experience he will make that throw a split second sooner and it's an easy TD.  That's why I'm encouraged because I think we're very close to having a much better passing game.  Next year with two seasons under his belt Allen will more often then not hit that throw perfectly.

 

2)  As Knox gains experience in the passing game he will make the slight adjustment that would have given him a decent chance to catch that ball or draw a PI even when it's thrown a split second late.

 

Bottom line is that sooner rather then later both Allen & Knox will gain that extra bit of experience that allows them to start routinely hitting on those plays.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/7-things-to-watch-for-in-bills-at-dolphins-week-11

 

1. WHAT DOES FEARLESS LOOK LIKE?

After losing two of their last three, head coach Sean McDermott has challenged his team to play fearlessly. That’s what quarterback Josh Allen told the media this week.

Veteran Center Mitch Morse says it’s not just the quarterback. He said McDermott is challenging the team to play more freely and instinctively.

“I think there is something to that,” Morse said this week. “We don’t need to change everything just because we lost one game, but I think we need to look at what gets us stuck in certain situations. When you think too much on the football field you don’t play as fast. And that doesn’t mean you don’t think, that means be confident in yourself. Be confident in the group of guys with you.  Maybe sometimes less is more when it comes to communication part. Go out and just play football.”

 

 

...interesting.....so it took losing two of the last three to hatch this mantra?.......shouldn't that have been the ONGOING message from day one?.....then perhaps "losing two of the last three" does NOT happen??..........

[Rocket94]

14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...interesting.....so it took losing two of the last three to hatch this mantra?.......shouldn't that have been the ONGOING message from day one?.....then perhaps "losing two of the last three" does NOT happen??..........

Right on...we would think that McDermott had already gone this route from the beginning. Sounds like he is reaching in to his toolbox.

[Locomark]

23 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Agreed. Just really hoping he develops into the QB who hits those throws that good QBs make. He is still in his second year (and not even really that...has had less than a season and a half as a starter) as a RAW prospect coming out of a nothing college program. Gonna take time, IF it happens at all...he gets through next season before I will reach a conclusion as to if he is "the guy" or not. 

We forget he played for WYOMING. He didn’t play for Alabama or Ohio State. He probably is 1 or 2 years behind in his pro development because of it. We won’t know what we have until the end of the 2020 season. I know that sucks but that’s reality.

 

It’s why I have been pushing for AJ Green, if healthy, or some major move for a WR1 because Brown is a WR2. We can still draft a WR also but we need that WR1 next year. It won’t fix Josh but it will improve his confidence and give him a true pro offense. 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Locomark

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Locomark said:

We forget he played for WYOMING. He didn’t play for Alabama or Ohio State. He probably is 1 or 2 years behind in his pro development because of it. We won’t know what we have until the end of the 2020 season. I know that sucks but that’s reality.

 

It’s why I have been pushing for AJ Green, if healthy, or some major move for a WR1 because Brown is a WR2. We can still draft a WR also but we need that WR1 next year. It won’t fix Josh but it will improve his confidence and give him a true pro offense. 

 

...thinking that is a BIG if........besides he wants a long term deal with big money along with the BIG if.......don't see it.........upcoming WR draft class sounds pretty lucrative according to the TBD folks versed in collegiate ball........

Edited November 16, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[YoloinOhio]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

I've been hammering Allen pretty hard this week, but he's still got plenty of time to silence the doubters. 

 

This would be a great time to start.

 

My hope is that Cleveland game is going to shake things up offensively; you can't "fake" aggressive. You can't try to micromanage a QB who's biggest asset going forward will be big plays provided he takes a step forward.

 

Yes, they passed 41 times, but I think it's time for the OC to take a step back and let the kid do what he's gonna do. It's my view that Allen is going to thrive when he's not playing scared. It's sports psychology 101. They've essentially asked him NOT to make mistakes. It's like telling a pitcher to stop throwing balls, etc. It just doesn't work that way. They need to start focusing on what he CAN do and I'm thinking/hoping they realize they need to make some changes. They shouldn't be in this predicament in the first place offensively, but what's done is done. Hope for the rest of the season is that Allen decides it's time to just play QB and let the chips fall where they may if he makes some mistakes.

[RiotAct]

Run the damn ball.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]