By the numbers: Average Defense, Below Avg offense, easy schedule = 6-2 on way to 10-6

[PlayoffsPlease]

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

Edited November 4, 2019 by PlayoffsPlease

[H2o]

Said 11-5 before the season started and we get a playoff win this year. Sticking to it, numbers or no numbers. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

 

This doesn't pass the smell test.  I agree with your point on the offense, but the defense, even including the last two games is better than slightly above average.  Coming into the game they were ranked 3rd overall.  That's better than slightly above.  I think you're undervaluing 10% better.

 

I'm not a statisticians major, but I believe what you need to do would be determine the standard deviation of both the offensives and defensive stats.  While 10% doesn't sound like alot, I wouldn't be surprised if that is better than most.

[John from Riverside]

Our d is not average

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

[PlayoffsPlease]

4 minutes ago, H2o said:

Said 11-5 before the season started and we get a playoff win this year. Sticking to it, numbers or no numbers. 

11-5 is possible.  Its possible that we can go 11-5 without ever beating a team with a winning record.  I am pretty sure we need to beat a team with a winning record to win a playoff game though. 

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

This doesn't pass the smell test.  I agree with your point on the offense, but the defense, even including the last two games is better than slightly above average.  Coming into the game they were ranked 3rd overall.  That's better than slightly above.  I think you're undervaluing 10% better.

 

I'm not a statisticians major, but I believe what you need to do would be determine the standard deviation of both the offensives and defensive stats.  While 10% doesn't sound like alot, I wouldn't be surprised if that is better than most.

 

I stand by my process

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Our d is not average

Well, it had one very above average game compared to other teams against that opponent, the new england game.   It had one horrible below average game against the Eagles.  Against all the other opponents, we allowed a fairly similar amount of points as the rest of the league.  When you perform at the same level as the league average, that seems like an average performance to me. Of course I am only  going on actual results, not eye tests or my imagination. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

11-5 is possible.  Its possible that we can go 11-5 without ever beating a team with a winning record.  I am pretty sure we need to beat a team with a winning record to win a playoff game though. 

 

I stand by my process

 

Fine, just make sure you're standing in the back of the math class.

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Slightly above average. Good secondary, average front 7 who struggle against the run and don't pressure the QB.

I am Gumby Dammit,  just say elite.

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Phins are a gimme? They were a yard away from being up 21-9 on us at home midway through the 3rd quarter. They are playing well as of late. We could easily lose that game.

Like I said...8-8, we drop a stinker to the Phins or Jets.  I say "gimmies" because that will be the rose colored general consensus from the board...But I;'m right there with ya on the Phins

[PlayoffsPlease]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Fine, just make sure you're standing in the back of the math class.

My process is simple arithmetic. It  claims no statistical correlation.  The arithmetic is correct.  And it reaches a logical conclusion.  The Bills have more or less performed against our opponents, the same as the rest of the league has. 

[billsfan1959]

31 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents.

 

Why? It is a fools errand. You cannot compare two things with completely different variables and reach any sort of meaningful conclusions. Differrent players, coaches, gameplans, conditions, play to play scenarios and situations, etc., etc. etc....

 

We beat the Jets, who beat the Cowboys, who beat the Eagles, who beat us. What exactly does that say, other than on any given Sunday (Monday and Thursday)...?

[RiotAct]

26 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

lol, Ravens and Cowboys are absolutely not “definate losses”.

[26TrapDraw]

25 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Our d is not average

Our Run D is garbage. It's the recipe to beat the Bills and with the offense getting 20 yards a game we are lucky we are playing garbage teams. Facts are facts and the Fact is Allen and the offense have to produce and we have to shore up the run D. I love that we are stacking up wins against the putrid teams in the NFL . I will say our pass Defense is Terrific.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Did you feel like yesterday’s game was a gimme in the third quarter? 

[Virgil]

43 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

Edited November 4, 2019 by Virgil

[Billsfan1972]

35 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Our d is not average

What is it then?  

 

The Bills D did play very well vs. NE, quite well vs. Tennessee (who also happened to miss 4 fgs!!!).

 

Otherwise the D has been AVERAGE and has played only one team with an above average Offense (Philly).

 

Rose coloured glasses?

[Jrb1979]

Why is it when any one posts anything that has anything negative to say about some issues with the Bills its always blown off. Too many homers here that just think 6-2 ,6-2,6-2 

[Mrbojanglezs]

This is a growth year team, not a super bowl contender team, don't we all understand this?

 

I will take 10+ wins on a growth year on an easy schedule any day over another 7, 8, 9 win team against a tougher schedule.

 

This team has not had more than 9 wins in what 2 decades? my god just enjoy it.

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Mrbojanglezs

[Tenhigh]

32 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Like I said...8-8, we drop a stinker to the Phins or Jets.  I say "gimmies" because that will be the rose colored general consensus from the board...But I;'m right there with ya on the Phins

Hey look, Debbie found a friend. 

[Casey D]

43 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

Given your attitude, do you kick the space puppies? 

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

It was a fair analysis, same as your weekly detailed breakdowns, which one can take it or leave it.

 

The point is that the Bills have had as easy a schedule as possible.  Only three Road games vs. NYJ, NYG & Tenn to boot.  The 4 win Tennessee game is their signature victory.  Other wins vs. teams with 0, 1, 1, 1 & 2.  Washington's only win vs. Miami & Miami's vs. NYJ......

 

[SoCal Deek]

The Bills are playing really good situational football, with the one exception that Josh keeps putting the ball on the ground every single game. The 2019 Bills aren’t going to blow teams off the field but it’s no fluke that they’re 11-2 going back to the end of last season and through preseason. They seem to understand what needs to be done when it needs to be done....and they’re generally doing it. It’s way harder than it looks!

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

This is a growth year team, not a super bowl contender team, don't we all understand this?

 

I will take 10+ wins on a growth year on any easy schedule any day over another 7, 8, 9 win team against a tougher schedule.

 

This team has not had more than 9 wins in what 2 decades, my god just enjoy it.

 

I then don't see growth beating the teams they have beaten, since all 6 wins were within one score into the fourth quarter.

[Mrbojanglezs]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I then don't see growth beating the teams they have beaten, since all 6 wins were within one score into the fourth quarter.

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

Edited November 4, 2019 by Mrbojanglezs

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

19 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

 

I was about to say something about a LAMP...

 

I can't figure this guy out (well I can but ..)  In the Shoutbox on a Sunday ...  you cant not tell which way is up with this fella.  

 

Most of the time it is all gloom and doom.

The Bills are 6 and 2

for the moment 

 

 

 

 

[eanyills]

3 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

The laughingstock years are irrelevant. McD and the players would tell you that. Missing or backsliding into the playoffs this year won’t be growth to them. It will be failure.

[Dablitzkrieg]

24 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honest question:  Why did you take the time to do this?   To prove a point to yourself or others?

It is significantly shorter than your diatribe last evening and much more meaningful imo?

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

Yes they had the longest streak going into 2017 missing the playoffs, but generally they were just bad (not a laughingstock) as they were generally between 6-9 & 9-7.......  

[Rocbillsfan1]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Said 11-5 before the season started and we get a playoff win this year. Sticking to it, numbers or no numbers. 

We aren't beating anybody in the playoffs. We will get smoked by Baltimore, Kansas City, or Houston. Don't be delusional about this record. The Bills are a paper tiger. One of the softest 6-2 teams I've ever seen.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

7 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

 

This is such an underrated point. Sure, we are beating bad teams. But, for how many years did the Bills lose those games, even in years they thought they had a shot at the playoffs?  Beating the teams you are supposed to beat is 75% of the battle.  

[Albany,n.y.]

46 minutes ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

The Jets beat the Cowboys 3 weeks ago & just lost to Miami, so we have to approach individual game predictions with caution,.  Still, there's no way the Bills win only 2 games the rest of the season unless they get a slew of injuries.  

 

Before the season on another board I broke down the reasoning why I thought this was 10 win team.  Here's what I said:  Definite wins 1 of Jets games, both Miami games, NYG, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Baltimore (Anyone who thinks Lamar Jackson is winning in Buffalo has lost their mind), Split among road games at Tennessee & Cleveland 9th win, 1 more win in games against New England (2), Philadelphia, Dallas, & Pittsburgh.  

 

As of now it looks like we're still on schedule to win 10.  So far my opinion of Baltimore & Jackson may need revision as well as my higher opinion of the Jets.  Flip another Jets win & give the Baltimore game a loss & we still win 10 games.  I still think we can win 1 of the games vs NE, Dallas & Pittsburgh, with the most likely win vs Pittsburgh,  There's also a good chance we beat Cleveland this week & exceed my expectations on the Tennessee/Cleveland split.  I still think we beat Denver at home.  

So if we beat Cleveland, we don't even have to win one of the 3 games remaining against the teams that appeared to be the toughest games before the season started to get to 10 wins.  

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Mr. SpacePuppy said:

Based on our current performance, we've got two gimmies left(Jets and Phins,) three toss ups(Browns/Broncos/Steelers) and three definate losses(Cowboys, Ravens, Pats.)

 

We end up 9-7 / 10-6 at best

 

8-8 at worst

 

I'm going with 8-8.  We'll drop a stinker with either the Jets or Phins.

 

That's how I see it, too. 

 

[Mr. SpacePuppy]

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

The Jets beat the Cowboys 3 weeks ago & just lost to Miami, so we have to approach individual game predictions with caution,.  Still, there's no way the Bills win only 2 games the rest of the season unless they get a slew of injuries.  

 

Before the season on another board I broke down the reasoning why I thought this was 10 win team.  Here's what I said:  Definite wins 1 of Jets games, both Miami games, NYG, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Baltimore (Anyone who thinks Lamar Jackson is winning in Buffalo has lost their mind), Split among road games at Tennessee & Cleveland 9th win, 1 more win in games against New England (2), Philadelphia, Dallas, & Pittsburgh.  

 

As of now it looks like we're still on schedule to win 10.  So far my opinion of Baltimore & Jackson may need revision as well as my higher opinion of the Jets.  Flip another Jets win & give the Baltimore game a loss & we still win 10 games.  I still think we can win 1 of the games vs NE, Dallas & Pittsburgh, with the most likely win vs Pittsburgh,  There's also a good chance we beat Cleveland this week & exceed my expectations on the Tennessee/Cleveland split.  I still think we beat Denver at home.  

So if we beat Cleveland, we don't even have to win one of the 3 games remaining against the teams that appeared to be the toughest games before the season started to get to 10 wins.  

 

Your not taking into account the inevitable clunker game they will have against a bad team.  And going by what I saw last night, Baltimore will destroy the Bills.

[Albany,n.y.]

15 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

 

For a someone who calls himself a Billsfan1972, where have you been the last 20 years. Bills teams of the past consistently losing games that they should win over the last two decades.

 

Beating teams you should win, stacking wins and getting to the playoffs is a GROWTH year for a franchise that has been a LAUGHING STOCK

Teams always lose games they should win.  Remember the 1992 Bills?  They lost games to the Colts & Jets they had no business losing & it cost them home field.  I remember the only road AFC championship game in the Super Bowl era was that year in Miami because of the 2 losses vs what at the time were bad teams.    

[Seasons1992]

Did you guys know we won the game yesterday? Just in case you missed it, here's the highlight package. https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019110301/2019/REG9/redskins@bills?icampaign=scoreStrip-globalNav-2019110301

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Teams always lose games they should win.  Remember the 1992 Bills?  They lost games to the Colts & Jets they had no business losing & it cost them home field.  I remember the only road AFC championship game in the Super Bowl era was that year in Miami because of the 2 losses vs what at the time were bad teams.    

This schedule has been beyond a joke in how easy it has been.  They have played 3 teams with more then 2 wins & are 1-2.

 

To put into context Wash beat Miami, NYG (the juggernaut with 2 W's) beat Wash, Miami beat NYJ....  Only NYJ win was against an actual winning team Dallas. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

It is an inarguable truism that you can only play the team on your schedule. And winning is good. 

 

However, I believe we are allowed to compare how the Bills against each of their opponents, to how the rest of the league has done against the same opponents. 

 

The season is 50% over, so its a reasonable statistical sample.  (16 game seasons make large samples impossible) 

 

This table compares each Bills game result, to the average result that the opponents have faced. 

Our offense has scored about 16% ( 3.89) less against our opponents than the rest of the league has.  Our defense has held our opponents to about 10% (1.89) less points than the league has.

To me the 16% qualifies as below average.  The 10% qualifies as average to slightly above average.

If these results hold  up over the next 8 games, we would end up with a 10-6 record, based on the following results:


 

 

Except this league is a match up league. Week in week out it is about how teams match up to each other. Why did the Chargers suddenly hold the Packers to 11 points? The Chargers aren't a great defense.... but they match up very well against the Packers scheme v scheme.

[Billsfan1972]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Except this league is a match up league. Week in week out it is about how teams match up to each other. Why did the Chargers suddenly hold the Packers to 11 points? The Chargers aren't a great defense.... but they match up very well against the Packers scheme v scheme.

And again what does that mean for the Bills?  Chubb is a great back, which is not a good match-up.  Cleveland has had a very hard schedule.

 

 

[H2o]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except this league is a match up league. Week in week out it is about how teams match up to each other. Why did the Chargers suddenly hold the Packers to 11 points? The Chargers aren't a great defense.... but they match up very well against the Packers scheme v scheme.

If Wisenhunt is calling the plays yesterday they lose that game. That new OC saw something on film and had a good gameplan ready against the Packers. Rivers and those guys executed to a T and had sustained drives that resulted in points 6 times. They kept the Packers off the field and that pass rush never allowed Rodgers to get into a rhythm. You can gameplan, but the guys still have to execute. That's what the Chargers did yesterday was execute.