Mikie2times Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) So much debate about how good we really are. It's indicative of every hot start we have had since the start of the playoff drought. Expectations rise and crash just as fast. DVOA is disgustingly accurate KPI brought to you by Football Outsiders. It is to the NFL what KenPom is to College Basketball. DVOA has us ranked 25th in the league with wins against, TEN 24th, NYG 26th, NYJ 30th, CIN 31st, and Miami 32nd. DVOA estimates us at 3-4. Which when you review each game and evaluate each teams DVOA against ours seems spot on. That's not to turn this into a negative thread. We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. While I do believe we are accurately pegged on DVOA I also believe the way this team plays is designed to win swing games. Our defense is no bend and snap, ranking 2nd in the league in most third down attempts by offenses, 12th in 3rd down %, 3rd in yards per play Allowed, 5th in first downs per game, 5th in red zone attempts per game. Then dear gawd, 28th in RZ touchdown %. In sum, teams do not drive on us. We make that very difficult. If they do, they generally score touchdowns. Most of the league has below average QB play. So even getting in a position to impact our biggest weakness is not common. On the offensive side I will site one statistic. We rank first in the league in RZ TD scoring % and I put a lot of that on the very tangible impact of Josh Allen in the RZ. His ability to run, extend plays, and make very challenging throws (while seemingly improving his decision making) is all very abnormal in a condensed part of the field. But again, the way he plays, I see him being a Red Zone match up nightmare. He is also one of the few non franchise (current) QB's that seems to be a closer on the final drive. I think we will see the occasional dud on defense as better teams get deeper into the RZ. Just as we will see our offense struggle to ever reach the RZ and take advantage of it's best strength. In a league built with a lot of truly porous defenses and low quality QB play we will beat most the teams within 5-10 rankings of our DVOA that fit that description . End result is a Wild Card team and a chance at potentially winning a road playoff game. Prior to the year that would have been considered a smashing success. Even if we beat Philadelphia it was still far and away the most probable outcome as far as a road wild card team. Enjoy the ride guys. It's usually never as good or bad as it seems. Edited October 31, 2019 by KzooMike 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 DVOA Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 We won 5 games and lost 2. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 30 minutes ago, fansince88 said: We won 5 games and lost 2. Yeah that's it, bury your head in the sand, typical... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwater10 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 War Is Peace Freedom Is Slavery Ignorance Is Strength 5-2 Is 3-4 1984 is 2-12 Then Came Bruce 2019 Is NOT 1984 Football Outsiders are Not Football 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPar_v2 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) I mean, why is DVOA “disgustingly accurate?” Apparently it’s not if it predicts the bills at 3-4 when, in real life, they’re 5-2. I am not anti-analyics. Far from it. But these numbers need to, at some point, be predictive and they dont seem to be. Call it an outlier maybe, but there’s only so many outliers until the model starts breaking down Edited October 31, 2019 by JoPar_v2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 If we had the Browns' schedule, we would probably be 2-5... The same record that has everyone calling them a tire fire. As much as I hate to admit it... It really is the schedule. ? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 So many people claiming to be fans desperate to prove this team, that's 5-2, is bad. Fans. Right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwater10 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 What was the DVOA of the 1990 Buffalo Bills vs that of the NY Giants? How about the 1991 Bills vs Redskins? How many rings do we really have? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) On 10/31/2019 at 6:47 AM, Joe in Winslow said: So many people claiming to be fans desperate to prove this team, that's 5-2, is bad. Fans. Right. Data shows they are not a good team, just like data showed in the late 80's there might be exoplanets. Those scientists were derided for their takes and some of them even kept quiet in fear of losing their careers ultimately missing out on a Nobel prize. The data has been proven out year after year the Bills are not a good team, yet year after year the fight is the same. It's math & science vs. religion season after season it seems. Edited November 1, 2019 by Seven-N-Nine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Data shows they are not a good team, just like data showed in the late 80's there might be exoplanets. Those scientists were derided for their takes and some of them even kept quiet in fear of losing their careers ultimately missing out on a Nobel prize. The data has been proven out year after year the Bills are not a good team, yet year after year the fight is the same. It's match & science vs. religion season after season it seems. Data shows that data can show anything you want. The fancy stat boys treat it like a religion. We're 5-2, deal with it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 21 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Data shows they are not a good team, just like data showed in the late 80's there might be exoplanets. Those scientists were derided for their takes and some of them even kept quiet in fear of losing their careers ultimately missing out on a Nobel prize. The data has been proven out year after year the Bills are not a good team, yet year after year the fight is the same. It's match & science vs. religion season after season it seems. What a buffoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 the day DVOA actually indicates a Win let me know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 hours ago, KzooMike said: DVOA estimates us at 3-4. Which when you review each game and evaluate each teams DVOA against ours seems spot on. No its doesn't. DVOA says 3-4, and we're actually 5-2. I'd think an analytics worshiper would understand that the model isn't accurate at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 14 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: the day DVOA actually indicates a Win let me know. it does not GUARANTEE wins, but it is a good projection of how teams are performing. I use his stats a ton in playing my moneylines, and i must say i am having a great year so far. 2 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said: I mean, why is DVOA “disgustingly accurate?” Apparently it’s not if it predicts the bills at 3-4 when, in real life, they’re 5-2. I am not anti-analyics. Far from it. But these numbers need to, at some point, be predictive and they dont seem to be. Call it an outlier maybe, but there’s only so many outliers until the model starts breaking down i would not say they are disgustingly accurate, but they do help to form a picture. Over time these things start to play out to form. Think of it as flipping a coin..stats say it should come out 50/50...but sometimes it can go 8 straight one way...but over 100 flips will most likely come back to expected results 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeSomeProcess Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 DVOA is a system created by a nerd in Schotz, nothing I dislike more in football are these judge mental rankings. PFF, FO and etc.. do what they want to fit their narrative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwater10 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 59 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Data shows they are not a good team, just like data showed in the lat 80's there might be exoplanets. Those scientists were derided for their takes and some of them even kept quiet in fear of losing their careers. The data has been proven out year after year the Bills are not a good team, yet year after year the fight is the same. It's match & science vs. religion season by season it seems. Are you effing serious right now? Did you just equate data collection and application methods used by astronomers and physicists to the recreational junk science known as Football Outsiders? Queue perspective any time you feel inspired for your next revelation. Data does not show anything. Data DOES inform our interpretation! You have yours. I find it depressing and self flagellating as a fan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrb1979 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Its funny. Last year when DVOA had the Bills defense ranked as one of the best, everyone agreed. This year they rank near the bottom and now most think data like this means little. Those of you upset or disagreeing with the ranking probably come from a time when this stuff didn't exist. So all that mattered was the end score and if they won. Doesn't matter how they got there or if how bad they looked. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Data shows they are not a good team, just like data showed in the late 80's there might be exoplanets. Those scientists were derided for their takes and some of them even kept quiet in fear of losing their careers ultimately missing out on a Nobel prize. The data has been proven out year after year the Bills are not a good team, yet year after year the fight is the same. It's match & science vs. religion season after season it seems. Shut up with your data BS. The team is 5-2! Drop your agenda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said: Its funny. Last year when DVOA had the Bills defense ranked as one of the best, everyone agreed. This year they rank near the bottom and now most think data like this means little. Those of you upset or disagreeing with the ranking probably come from a time when this stuff didn't exist. So all that mattered was the end score and if they won. Doesn't matter how they got there or if how bad they looked. Who is “most”? These numbers have been raised in other threads to relatively little criticism. I also think you’re looking at it incorrectly. Like fielding independent pitching (FIP), which isn’t an accurate indicator of past ERA but a great one for future ERA, DVOA offers you an idea of where the team is headed next. The issue is that the Bills schedule is SO easy — like, historically easy, as in the next 4 games are against bottom tier DVOA teams — that the win loss record won’t show you how mediocre the team really by week 11. If they get blown out by Dallas, Baltimore, and NE while getting to 11-5/10-6, you’ll have a sense of who they really are. Edited October 31, 2019 by dave mcbride 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden*Wheels Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The record is what the record is. Thank goodness. I'd have PAID for 5-2 after 7 games. But, IF you were a fan of one of the 31 other teams, what would your opinion of this team be? Take in the counter view as if you were a Browns fan or a (ugh) Jets fan. AND if I was a fan of one of those 31 other teams, I would say we're a team that can lose to absolutely anybody, and beat almost anybody, but that we are still a big step down from the top tier of the AFC. I'd view us a pretty unbalanced squad (D to O) and if somebody asked me if the QB really scares me....I'd have to say no, he really doesn't. If I was a Baltimore fan looking at a home playoff game vs us on Wildcard Weekend....I'd feel pretty confident. I'd say, we're still a team that is not ready for primetime, so to speak. Still, near the top of the 2nd tier of AFC teams...that's progress, and hopefully that arc keeps bending up. I ain't complaining! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apocalypse Nuts Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 DVOA as in... ? Doo-doo-doo-doo-doo Doo...doo ”When there’s something going on you must whip it... ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: it does not GUARANTEE wins, but it is a good projection of how teams are performing. I use his stats a ton in playing my moneylines, and i must say i am having a great year so far. i would not say they are disgustingly accurate, but they do help to form a picture. Over time these things start to play out to form. Think of it as flipping a coin..stats say it should come out 50/50...but sometimes it can go 8 straight one way...but over 100 flips will most likely come back to expected results similar to this, in a sense: https://community.fangraphs.com/a-brief-analysis-of-predictive-pitching-metrics/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Yeah that's it, bury your head in the sand, typical... Would you not be happy with 7 wins and 9 losses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Would you not be happy with 7 wins and 9 losses? Who would be happy with that finish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: If they get blown out by Dallas, Baltimore, and NE while getting to 11-5/10-6, you’ll have a sense of who they really are. We already played the Patriots and we didn't get blown out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Seven-N-Nine said: Who would be happy with that finish? Well, Im fansince88 and that is who I am. You're 7n9 so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) FO, 538 and Sagarin will all have them middle of the pack or worse until they beat some team they consider to be good. Of the remaining games on their schedule that's the Ravens, Cowboys and Patriots. Beating the other teams does not move the needle much. The Eagles loss hurt their ranking way more than beating any of the next 4 will help so it won't change much anytime soon. Go ahead and get to 9 and 2 or 8 and 3, let the offense improve and see where this thing goes. I suggest we just enjoy the ride. Bebe Rexha Sings About the Ride Edited October 31, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, HappyDays said: We already played the Patriots and we didn't get blown out. I’ll bet you some money that they get blown out in NE. The odds would definitely be on my side. FO’s doesn’t predict every outcome correctly anyway. Look, I fully expect the Bills to win 10 and maybe 11 games, but they aren’t that good. Don’t get me wrong—I love the fact that they have a bizarrely creampuff schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Well, Im fansince88 and that is who I am. You're 7n9 so...... I've been a fan longer than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The “but we’re 5-2 everything is awesome!!!” responses in this thread look exactly like responses to rationally skeptical posts I saw in 2008 and 2011. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said: I mean, why is DVOA “disgustingly accurate?” Apparently it’s not if it predicts the bills at 3-4 when, in real life, they’re 5-2. I am not anti-analyics. Far from it. But these numbers need to, at some point, be predictive and they dont seem to be. Call it an outlier maybe, but there’s only so many outliers until the model starts breaking down I believe the 3-4 prediction would be if they played league average opponents. It’s just saying what we all know, the Bills have had an easy schedule and still struggle in each win. They are still wins and they can stack many more this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I’ll bet you some money that they get blown out in NE. The odds would definitely be on my side. FO’s doesn’t predict every outcome correctly anyway. I'll be surprised if we get blown out. Since McDermott got here we've always played New England close. The NFL is a matchup league. DVOA does a very good job, probably as good as any statistic can, at measuring the quality of NFL teams. But it doesn't properly account for matchups. I had the Eagles game pegged as a loss because their weakness - pass defense - didn't match up with our team's strength. We couldnt take advantage of their weakness. The Patriots are the opposite. Their strength on defense is pass defense. That doesn't hurt our team as bad as it does other teams. Their strength on offense is passing the ball. Our defense matches up well with that. I expect we will lose that game by a TD or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 10 hours ago, KzooMike said: We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. With all due respect, Babe Ruth had to actually swing the bat in order to deliver on his "called shot", so that may not be the most accurate description for a fan predicting his team will make the play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: I've been a fan longer than you. Great! But I would use the nme 19n0. Seems more optimistic and fan like. Edited October 31, 2019 by fansince88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HereComesTheReignAgain Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said: Its funny. Last year when DVOA had the Bills defense ranked as one of the best, everyone agreed. This year they rank near the bottom and now most think data like this means little. Those of you upset or disagreeing with the ranking probably come from a time when this stuff didn't exist. So all that mattered was the end score and if they won. Doesn't matter how they got there or if how bad they looked. That is still all that matters. Does the NFL award wins or playoff positions for DVOA rankings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Great! But I would use the nme 19n0. Seems more optimistic and fan like. That's cool, however in the end, being optimistic or pessimistic really has no bearing on how your favorite sports team will ultimately play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket94 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Green Lightning said: Data shows that data can show anything you want. The fancy stat boys treat it like a religion. We're 5-2, deal with it. Almost equaled last years win total by near mid season. Its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, HappyDays said: I'll be surprised if we get blown out. Since McDermott got here we've always played New England close. The NFL is a matchup league. DVOA does a very good job, probably as good as any statistic can, at measuring the quality of NFL teams. But it doesn't properly account for matchups. I had the Eagles game pegged as a loss because their weakness - pass defense - didn't match up with our team's strength. We couldnt take advantage of their weakness. The Patriots are the opposite. Their strength on defense is pass defense. That doesn't hurt our team as bad as it does other teams. Their strength on offense is passing the ball. Our defense matches up well with that. I expect we will lose that game by a TD or less. ??? They were absolutely obliterated in NE last year; don't be deceived by the score. The Bills scored a garbage time TD with a minute to go when the outcome wasn't in doubt, and that outcome wasn't in doubt after the first 20 minutes of that game. NE ran it all game, steamrolling the Bills for 273 rushing yards. It was one of the more embarrassing Bills performances in recent years. The year before they lost in NE 37-16. Sure, the Bills led in the 3rd at one point, but they also led 21-0 against the Pats in 2011 before going on to lose 49-21. The last 25 minutes of the game count too, and the Pats ultimately massacred them in that game. Having said that, I do think that DVOA misses a bit on coaching, as I outline here: Edited October 31, 2019 by dave mcbride 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Is there somewhere I can DVOA applied to say the last 20 years and how successful it's predictions are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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