Over 29 years of fanhood Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: The Bills are the most valuable NFL franchise in Buffalo. And New York 18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: The most valuable NFL franchise will always be the one that is up for sale. I belive the worry here is always that one can rapidly increase value by buying it from a small market and moving it to a large one. As long as Pegs doesn’t sell or care about that- non issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, TroutDog said: Yup. In the recent Athletic article, he told the guy who managed the purchase to offer what would definitively be the highest bid. They did it intentionally and their investment is now up $.5b dollars. Not bad. whoop dee doo on how they value it, it's meaningless when you have to sell is all that matters, amazing how recent years were very very lean for ownership trying to sell pro sports franchises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Was not an over buy though. All professional sports franchises sell for a lot more than what they are claimed to be "worth" by articles such as Forbes. The reason is simple, they are a very very rare commodity as they almost never come available. And when they do, there are many interested parties bidding. The Dodgers were in financial shambles before Magic and his investors paid a ton more than anyone expected. The Clippers were considered the least valuable franchise in all of the major sports and still sold for $2B when they were reportedly worth well under a billion. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. And if Bills were on the market today, I bet they would easily sell for north of $2B as well. I don't see the Bills worth much more than the 1.9 billion dollar figure and that seems generous. The Cowboys have Jerry World and prime time exposure to drive their value which the Bills don't currently have. I would quibble with the value for NE. I see their value to the league declining once Bill B and Brady move on. Dallas benefitted from being good during the early days of football when their games would be on near dinner time for many across the US so many would watch while looking over from the dinner table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplebulldog Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 So TP is getting an 18% cash on cash return based on original purchase price and the $250M TV contract alone. Plus a 35% increase in valuation in 5 years. Pretty shrewd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Still out of my price range by about $1.8999B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VW82 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) These valuations are getting a little ridiculous IMO. Bills are worth just shy of 2B but only have EBITA of 82M?? I wonder what their net income looks like after amortizing stadium reno's. The current NBA valuations don't make sense either. Forbes claims there would be numerous bidders for a team like the Giants (@ 3.9B!!!). There are only so many people on Earth who can write a ten figure check AND like football/basketball. Many of them already own NBA/NFL teams. Who's buying these teams in the future if the valuations continue to increase? I get that NFL expects increased revenue from their next TV deal but unless it's an increase by a multiple factor the financials won't come close to justifying it alone. There has to be an actual market of buyers. Currently there are few to none franchises for sale and so that drives up the price but I'll be very interested to see how it goes once the next generation of owners pass and their families can no longer afford the tax bill given the hard-to-believe unrealized capital gains over the last decade. Edited September 18, 2019 by VW82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 minute ago, VW82 said: These valuations are getting a little ridiculous IMO. Bills are worth just shy of 2B but only have EBITA of 82M?? I wonder what their net income looks like after amortizing stadium reno's. The current NBA valuations don't make sense either. Forbes claims there would be numerous bidders for a team like the Giants (@ 3.9B!!!). There are only so many people on Earth who can write a ten figure check AND like football/basketball. Many of them already own NBA/NFL teams. Who's buying these teams in the future if the valuations continue to increase? I get that NFL expects increased revenue from their next TV deal but unless it's an increase by a multiple factor the financials won't come close to justifying it alone. There has to be an actual market of buyers. Currently there are few to none franchises for sale and so that drives up the price but I'll be very interested to see how it goes once the next generation of owners pass and their families can no longer afford the tax bill given the hard-to-believe capital gains over the last decade. Well, it is pent up demand for people who lived and breathed football in their youth. Contacts will drive the appreciation in value and the NFL still allows ownership groups as long as there is one big money individual involved. If the NFL gets too big for its pants and will not allow minor owners and the contracts start shrinking then values will decrease. 26 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: I am surprised that Jacksonville is not in the bottom 5. I thought they would give Buffalo a run for #32 but they came in at #23. Buffalo's operating income at $82 million is higher than 12 teams and is essentially the same as 2 others (who are at $83 million), so they are middle of the pack. Low operating costs I guess. They also tied for the 2nd highest percentage increase in franchise value (19%). The possibility of them relocating to a city like London has to play into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) 59 minutes ago, RiotAct said: isn’t Green Bay smaller? Or no? GB is like Dallas in that it has a firm national fanbase and is a driver in primetime matchups. If this article was done around 1980 or so GB would be a lot lower in relative value. Edited September 18, 2019 by RochesterRob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 They say you want to own the cheapest house in the best neighborhood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: It will go up more with a new stadium - especially downtown. The stadium deals are why some teams like Dallas are so valuable- it is about more than the team. At best your comparison is apples and oranges. Dallas has huge corporate money that can help fill that stadium. Dallas has an unemotional, oversized cavern like structure to play football in. Personally, I hate it. If you want tot see a real stadium full of real fans go out to Orchard Park. There will need to be something done with the stadium situation in Buffalo. I pray that it is a major overhaul of what they have and not a new downtown venue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boater Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 43 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: 2+ billion dollar franchise fee each for London, Berlin, Madrid, Rome, Tokyo and Beijing someday The college system doesn't make enough good quarterbacks right now. Imagine the dearth of quality QBs if it were a 38 team league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msw2112 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) 55 minutes ago, boater said: Good point. GB itself is tiny. Only about 100,000. But their market value is an odd duck to calculate because they are the only publicly held team in the NFL. While true, it really depends on how you define "market." The Packers' true "market" is the entire state of Wisconsin, including Milwaukee and Madison, which have much larger populations than Green Bay. That said, Rochester and other parts of upstate & Western NY, and arguably Southern Ontario, are parts of the Bills market. Depending on how you run the numbers, the Packers' market is larger than the Bills'. If you include Toronto, the Bills would have the larger market, but if the "Toronto series" is evidence, Toronto is not part of the Bills market. And, as a prior post just mentioned, Green Bay has a national following due to its history and tradition. Plus, players like Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers drive TV ratings, as people want to see marquee players. Let's hope that Josh Allen evolves into that type of player! Edited September 18, 2019 by msw2112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 30 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: I don't see the Bills worth much more than the 1.9 billion dollar figure and that seems generous. The Cowboys have Jerry World and prime time exposure to drive their value which the Bills don't currently have. I would quibble with the value for NE. I see their value to the league declining once Bill B and Brady move on. Dallas benefitted from being good during the early days of football when their games would be on near dinner time for many across the US so many would watch while looking over from the dinner table. Clippers sold for $2B when they were still the Clippers and the Donald Sterling Clippers. They were reportedly the least valuable franchise and sold the highest price in league history. NFL is the most valuable professional sports league, so I bet they go for over $2B if on the open market. When they sold for $1.4B they were said to be worth way less than a billion too. Mute point though, Bills wont be for sale anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Moot point, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Clippers sold for $2B when they were still the Clippers and the Donald Sterling Clippers. They were reportedly the least valuable franchise and sold the highest price in league history. NFL is the most valuable professional sports league, so I bet they go for over $2B if on the open market. When they sold for $1.4B they were said to be worth way less than a billion too. Mute point though, Bills wont be for sale anytime soon. As I understand it the NFL and NBA are like apples and oranges. A NBA team is allowed to privatize more of its revenue versus a NFL team with LA being the second largest market in the US. So in that sense the Clippers were sorely undervalued and lack of performance on the court was a very large factor in that during the Sterling days. When the Bills were sold the Pegula's were a motivated buyer that wanted to keep the team in WNY. Were there no motivated buyer the Bills most likely would have struggled to break the billion dollar mark. The Pegula's could enhance the value of the Bills in my mind by asserting that Southern Ontario including Toronto is Bills territory which would increase market size considerably. I think that surveys like this only use US metro areas so that leaves teams like Buffalo and Detroit at a disadvantage. Hopefully, the Bills will not be for sale for a long time and that the Pegula's have a long term plan in place for somebody to succeed them when the unfortunate time comes. Edited September 18, 2019 by RochesterRob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, boater said: Smallest market in the league = smallest net worth. No complaints from me. Are we really the smallest market ? I think the way they measure markets is flawed. I could care less.. but at 1.9 billion that seems ridiculous to think we are the least valuable. Are we forming an NFL Franchise market bubble ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) 24 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Are we really the smallest market ? I think the way they measure markets is flawed. I could care less.. but at 1.9 billion that seems ridiculous to think we are the least valuable. Are we forming an NFL Franchise market bubble ? i'd count Southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area in the Bills market for TV and potential ticket buyers 24 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Are we really the smallest market ? I think the way they measure markets is flawed. I could care less.. but at 1.9 billion that seems ridiculous to think we are the least valuable. Are we forming an NFL Franchise market bubble ? in business valuations for a private sale you have the concept of a Special Purchaser who might be insane enough to offer, out of the blue and needlessly, 3 times what the nearest bidder would dare. they are wonderful things to enter your business transactions, the Clippers was another one where the purchase was silly beyond value because the purchaser simply didn't care sometimes a Special Purchaser can't win, Michael Jackson couldn't buy the Elephant Man's Bones, a certain great hockey player from my hometown couldn't get the elderly couple living at the house he wanted to take multiples of the appraisal value.... Edited September 18, 2019 by row_33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, msw2112 said: While true, it really depends on how you define "market." The Packers' true "market" is the entire state of Wisconsin, including Milwaukee and Madison, which have much larger populations than Green Bay. That said, Rochester and other parts of upstate & Western NY, and arguably Southern Ontario, are parts of the Bills market. Depending on how you run the numbers, the Packers' market is larger than the Bills'. If you include Toronto, the Bills would have the larger market, but if the "Toronto series" is evidence, Toronto is not part of the Bills market. And, as a prior post just mentioned, Green Bay has a national following due to its history and tradition. Plus, players like Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers drive TV ratings, as people want to see marquee players. Let's hope that Josh Allen evolves into that type of player! The Packers true market is deceptive. The very SE portion of Wisconsin is Chicago oriented and the Packers have a following in the state of Minnesota as they predate the Vikings by decades. But yes Madison, Milwaukee, etc. are Packer territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: GB is like Dallas in that it has a firm national fanbase and is a driver in primetime matchups. If this article was done around 1980 or so GB would be a lot lower in relative value. true - but I was thinking ‘market’ is defined as the geographic metropolitan area around the stadium (like, the “home broadcast area” more or less). Obviously the Bills and Packers have a ton of ex-pat fans living in areas that are doing better economically. EDIT: what msw said. Edited September 18, 2019 by RiotAct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, row_33 said: i'd count Southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area in the Bills market for TV and potential ticket buyers in business valuations for a private sale you have the concept of a Special Purchaser who might be insane enough to offer, out of the blue and needlessly, 3 times what the nearest bidder would dare. they are wonderful things to enter your business transactions, the Clippers was another one where the purchase was silly beyond value because the purchaser simply didn't care sometimes a Special Purchaser can't win, Michael Jackson couldn't buy the Elephant Man's Bones, a certain great hockey player from my hometown couldn't get the elderly couple living at the house he wanted to take multiples of the appraisal value.... I just don't see the value in the present valuations of NFL franchises. Yes all it takes is 1 person who just wants a status symbol. But at $2 billion the ROI on this is getting tight. The fact that the BIlls have increased 1/2 billion in a short time and still leaves us at the bottom of the list seems to be a franchise cost bubble forming IMO. It will be interesting to watch going forth, but the more franchises are worth the more insanely bad ideas we are going to get from the NFL as they desperately try to find more revenue to justify the valuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, ddaryl said: I just don't see the value in the present valuations of NFL franchises. Yes all it takes is 1 person who just wants a status symbol. But at $2 billion the ROI on this is getting tight. The fact that the BIlls have increased 1/2 billion in a short time and still leaves us at the bottom of the list seems to be a franchise cost bubble forming IMO. It will be interesting to watch going forth, but the more franchises are worth the more insanely bad ideas we are going to get from the NFL as they desperately try to find more revenue to justify the valuations. some people are so liquid rich they don't care what they paid for a franchise, the return is meaningless to them (for now.... that can change...) a group of investors, as Bon Jovi or Trump would have led, would be a lot more insistent on a profit margin, as you wisely state during the last NFL work action, the owners were not allowed to allocate received TV $$$$ as deferred income, so that got almost all back to the table immediately to settle the value of an entity is determined as best as one can at a given time, we have almost made a science of it, i do some work in the field but prefer working in forensic accounting, i prefer reconstructing actual events of the past over hypotheticals like a PRIVATE business value at present, a better estimation of the value of a public entity is always there for you through the stock price but when crunch time comes to sell a lot of factors can change the calculated value considerably, desperation to sell, newly formed war zone, Ralph's kids have no interest in it and want out now.... a lot of NBA teams went for a song not that long ago.... i had a decent little hockey card collection that I couldn't give away to card shops, went to a Country Club shindig and sold it for $1,500 because someone's brat insisted on it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Just now, HOUSE said: Would be worth 2 Billion in Toronto 220 $2 billion Canadian that is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, TroutDog said: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/cowboys-top-2019-list-of-most-valuable-nfl-franchises-almost-worth-more-than-bottom-three-teams-combined/ Still up to $1.9B so don’t cry for the Pegula’s. ? Fake news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Would be worth 2 Billion in Toronto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, HOUSE said: Would be worth 2 Billion in Toronto 220 did he seriously have the backing to make an offer ? we're only 25% on the exchange, right??? haven't cared in awhile... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, teef said: I’m pretty sure the 1.4 b he used to purchase the team was considered an over buy at the time. That’s one fancy toy. Maybe. But seeing a $500M or an almost 36% increase in value after just 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, Doc said: Maybe. But seeing a $500M or an almost 36% increase in value after just 5 years? it's all on paper and it's a private entity, so it's really guesswork Forbes does this all the time and everyone whines about how inaccurate they are... their multiples may not be the best for values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Just now, row_33 said: it's all on paper and it's a private entity, so it's really guesswork Forbes does this all the time and everyone whines about how inaccurate they are... their multiples may not be the best for values Doesn't seem out of whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, Doc said: Doesn't seem out of whack. how do you KNOW this, as a professional opinion for expert witness testimony, or standing by an opinion that will be sued back to the Stone Age if wrong the rules of valuations don't really play with the extremes of the market, definitions and models take a common sense approach those buyers for whom $$ is no object destroy all reality for value Forbes like to send out pure guesswork, gets them in the news, maybe sells some more magazines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Bob Kraft: Terry, that 1.9 Billion will get you a lot of tugs at the local spa. I got a team worth 4.1 Billion, I should know. Terry: I married a hot Asian woman Bob, I get more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, row_33 said: it's all on paper and it's a private entity, so it's really guesswork Forbes does this all the time and everyone whines about how inaccurate they are... their multiples may not be the best for values They extrapolate heavily from the television contracts. Like I said before I can see Dallas' value in terms of what the Cowboys bring to the bidding. The Pats could decline significantly if Brady hits the wall soon or Bill B loses his magic. I could even see the Pats slip below 3B because the other sports normally command the Boston sports dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 3 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: Does it matter? Is there a bright future ahead? Looks that way to me!! who really cares what Jerruh World costs as long as the Bills WIN and make the playoffs ..has to pay for his plastic surgery somehow.......screw him............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, row_33 said: how do you KNOW this, as a professional opinion for expert witness testimony, or standing by an opinion that will be sued back to the Stone Age if wrong the rules of valuations don't really play with the extremes of the market, definitions and models take a common sense approach those buyers for whom $$ is no object destroy all reality for value Forbes like to send out pure guesswork, gets them in the news, maybe sells some more magazines What makes you think they're wrong? The minimum value is what the Pegulas paid for the team: $1.4B. Teams valuations almost always rise annually thanks to revenue sharing (the Bills will make about $384M this season) while franchise sales, like the Panthers in 2018 (for $2.2B), increase valuations even more over the annual increases. And the Bills sold for well above the Forbes' valuation back in 2014. So at least in the Bills' case, they under-reported their value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Interesting that magazine which used to be worth BILLIONS and is now barely worth paper it is printed on is making these valuations. Oh and a good portion of the rise of the values of the NFL franchises were franchise fees for new franchises and they are not doing that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Boca BIlls said: Win and the value skyrockets. Doubtful. A look at the top ten list shows many teams that aren't all that good. Even the most valuable team has won only 1 playoff game in the last 20 years. 49ers had good run with Hard Ball but pretty much stunk before and after. The Jets? Rex and those back to back AFC games were a looooong time ago. The common theme among these teams (with the exception of the Bears) is they all have fancy new stadiums. If Buffalo continues to muddle areound .500 or less for a few years and then builds a fancy new stadium for billions of dollars, then the value of the Bills will go up too. Until then, it won't much if any regardless of the win/loss record. Do you know of a team that was bad and then got good and their team value sky rocketetted? If so, who? Meanwhile, the Jets and Giants have stunk for years and years yet are 2 of the most valuable teams. Edited September 18, 2019 by reddogblitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Doc said: Maybe. But seeing a $500M or an almost 36% increase in value after just 5 years? ...Chapter 11 time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, Doc said: What makes you think they're wrong? The minimum value is what the Pegulas paid for the team: $1.4B. Teams valuations almost always rise annually thanks to revenue sharing (the Bills will make about $384M this season) while franchise sales, like the Panthers in 2018 (for $2.2B), increase valuations even more over the annual increases. And the Bills sold for well above the Forbes' valuation back in 2014. So at least in the Bills' case, they under-reported their value. they aren't "wrong" because their values don't matter in reality It's almost impossible to gather the information of a private enterprise, let alone all 32 teams to come up with a useful value, zero credibility in this report Forbes does this all the time, they guess at values of teams, they guess at the richest people in the world, it's a fun thing to publish, but if you won't stand by the opinion in reality, it's worthless. okay Doc, if you are working professionally in this field you can have an opinion besides reading the headline and going "WOW WHAT A GENIUS!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Doubtful. A look at the top ten list shows many teams that aren't all that good. Even the most valuable team has won only 1 playoff game in the last 20 years. 49ers had good run with Hard Ball but pretty much stunk before and after. The Jets? Rex and those back to back AFC games were a looooong time ago. The common theme among these teams (with the exception of the Bears) is they all have fancy new stadiums. If Buffalo continues to muddle areound .500 or less for a few years and then builds a fancy new stadium for billions of dollars, then the value of the Bills will go up too. Until then, it won't much if any regardless of the win/loss record. Do you know of a team that was bad and then got good and their team value sky rocketetted? If so, who? Meanwhile, the Jets and Giants have stunk for years and years yet are 2 of the most valuable teams. Start winning and the value skyrockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Boca BIlls said: Start winning and the value skyrockets. Please explain. I laid out why I don't agree. Why do you think it does beyond "Start winning and the value skyrockets. " Is that all you got? Again, give me an example (if you got one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 minute ago, reddogblitz said: Please explain. I laid out why I don't agree. Why do you think it does beyond "Start winning and the value skyrockets. " Is that all you got? Again, give me an example (if you got one). Just look at the winning teams Patriots were never valued that high until they started winning. Just simple facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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