Is Josh Allen a Top 6 QB in the AFC?

[elijah]

Between Big Ben being out for the season and seeing someone on the board say that Josh Allen was a top 3 QB in the AFC, it got me thinking where does Josh rank in the AFC?  Being that six teams make the playoffs, being a top six quarterback is what is ringing important to me (in this moment, obviously you’ll want better as his career goes on). After ranking the quarterback’s, I find Josh sitting just outside of the top 6, and that’s even with a little Buffalo bias in ranking them.  

 

TIER ONE - Elite

1. Mahomes, 2. Brady

 

TIER TWO - Franchise Starters

3. Rivers, 4. Baker, 5. Watson

 

TIER THREE - Jury’s Out

6. Lamar, 7. Josh, 8. Dalton, 9. Carr, 10. Mariota, 11. Darnold, 12. Flacco

 

TIER FOUR - ???

13. Brissett, 14. Minshew, 15. Rudolph, 16. Rosen

 

The five in the top two tiers are undeniably better than Josh Allen right now.  As per the year’s end, who knows, a poor year from Baker and Watson and real progression from Josh could slide him ahead of them two.  But to call him a top five quarterback in the AFC isn’t much more than crazy talk right now. 

 

But the real question, is it reasonable to rank Josh above the quarterback’s that I have him above? Would you put him above Lamar Jackson?  There’s arguments to be made to put Derek Carr and Andy Dalton above Josh Allen, but with his first two performances this year Josh is making himself a case. 

 

While he’s not making pin-point, Drew Brees level throws, Josh has taken a major step forward in his passing game and that shouldn’t be debated.  There’s some off-target throws like the deep pass to Brown and the across endzone throw to Zay Jones, but there’s also incredible throws like the two dimes that he made on the run.  He had a rough game against the Jets with his turnovers, but I’ve albeit attributed that too bad ball luck. He was leading drives in those games and he was throwing with much improved short accuracy.  The balls aren’t perfect, but he’s doing a great job of putting them within the receivers catch radius and at the end of the day that’s all you need to do. 

 

It goes much much further than that too.  One thing that he’s had since returning from the injury last year is his composure and control of the game.  He’s been a baller if nothing else. He goes into the game determined to win and often times it seems he’s playing his best ball in the fourth quarter.  Then you’ve got to consider the fact that the athleticism too his game no longer seems to be sporadic. Last year Allen would run too early against the pressure or just look too run before keeping his eyes downfield.  This year it really seems like he’s taken care of his athleticism and is only running when necessary. His pocket movement has been phenomenal, and he has kept his eyes downfield looking to make plays. The checkdowns are a huge improvement from last year.  I find myself murmuring good play under my breath multiple times a game when no one’s open and Josh simply throws it out of bounds or at his receivers feet instead of making a bonehead decision - which he still does by the way, the ill-fated passes are still a part of his game even though he is making progress. 

 

With the upgrade in talent around Allen and his progression, I think by the end of the year you may be able to easily call him a top six quarterback in the AFC, but where do you have him at right now?

[RyanC883]

I'd almost move Watson into Elite (given his weak OL and continued production); and put Baker in Tier 3.  Baker has another bad game tonight, and I'm moving JA and Lamar ahead of him.  

[MR8]

What makes me sick is #1 and #5 on your list are the guys we passed on to get the picks to get Allen the following year... 

[row_33]

what the heck, why not

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, MR8 said:

What makes me sick is #1 and #5 on your list are the guys we passed on to get the picks to get Allen the following year... 

 

What if Allen turns out just as good?

[PetermansRedemption]

2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I'd almost move Watson into Elite (given his weak OL and continued production); and put Baker in Tier 3.  Baker has another bad game tonight, and I'm moving JA and Lamar ahead of him.  

Was going to post exactly this. Baker should be in the same tier as Jackson and Allen. I would also argue that Rivers is close to dropping a tier as well. Really I would leave Watson in tier two alone and bust Rivers and Baker down a tier. I wouldn’t take Rivers over many in that tier right now. 

[Lurker]

I'm not ready to go there yet.    His mental game is certainly growing but not to the level of guys like Dalton, Carr and Flacco who have many more games under their belt.   

 

While he's ahead of those guys physically at this stage of their career, we haven't seen enough of how Josh reacts when playing under duress against a good, playoff-level defense.   The Pats game will be huge for that... 

[PetermansRedemption]

5 minutes ago, MR8 said:

What makes me sick is #1 and #5 on your list are the guys we passed on to get the picks to get Allen the following year... 

Watson was Whaley’s guy, if he stayed and made the pick. Whaley was “in love” with Watson. This is why I think Whaley was simply not allowed to pick a QB in that draft. They obviously knew he was being fired and wanted that decision in the hands of the new front office. Mahomes was never, ever the guy. If you want to play that game then you would need to have replaced the entire front office a year earlier. The real comparison, therefore, is Allen vs Watson. Watson is definitely ahead now. But he is no where near out of reach. I have a suspicion Allen in year 3 could be just as good as Watson in year 3. 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Bills2ref

[aristocrat]

He's certainly trending up but obviously we need to see him keep going. I want to see him win this weekend and then play well against the pats.  

[Nextmanup]

Slightly off-topic, but has it been announced that Big Ben's surgery is "Tommy John Surgery" ???

 

That is a 2 year recovery, which probably means Big Ben has played his last game in the NFL.

 

That is deserving of its own thread.

 

This season is starting to shape up.  Miami and the Jets look like 4 automatic wins this year.  Pittsburgh is usually a strong competitor but that game is now going to be a LOT easier....

 

 

Just now, aristocrat said:

He's certainly trending up but obviously we need to see him keep going. I want to see him win this weekend and then play well against the pats.  

I agree with this.  I think we have just beaten a pair of 5 win teams.  Let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Looks like top 3 to me.

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I'd almost move Watson into Elite (given his weak OL and continued production); and put Baker in Tier 3.  Baker has another bad game tonight, and I'm moving JA and Lamar ahead of him.  

 

I’m on board with Baker and Watson moves. Rivers really is also an elite QB.

 

Mahomes seems elite, but does he need to show it a little longer before he’s ahead of a HoF’er and next to the GOAT. 

 

Flacco looked pretty good too and might work his way back into tier2 as should Carr. 

 

Intereting topic. 

 

Josh May be able to reach elite. 

 

 

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Slightly off-topic, but has it been announced that Big Ben's surgery is "Tommy John Surgery" ???

 

That is a 2 year recovery, which probably means Big Ben has played his last game in the NFL.

 

That is deserving of its own thread.

 

This season is starting to shape up.  Miami and the Jets look like 4 automatic wins this year.  Pittsburgh is usually a strong competitor but that game is now going to be a LOT easier....

 

 

 

have never looked at a visit to Miami as an easy win.

 

ever

 

 

[Nextmanup]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I'm not ready to go there yet.    His mental game is certainly growing but not to the level of guys like Dalton, Carr and Flacco who have many more games under their belt.   

 

While he's ahead of those guys physically at this stage of their career, we haven't seen enough of how Josh reacts when playing under duress against a good, playoff-level defense.   The Pats game will be huge for that... 

The Pats game is going to be just absolutely huge, particularly if we beat the Bengals, which I think we will.

[stinky finger]

Your tiers bring to tears.

[billsfan1959]

Yes.

[Nextmanup]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

have never looked at a visit to Miami as an easy win.

 

ever

 

 

It will be this year.  They're 0 for 2 at home and have been outscored 102-10.

 

They are deliberately tanking and look to be a solid contender to go 0-16.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Nextmanup

[unclepete]

Watson has been more impressive than Baker so far in their careers. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, MR8 said:

What makes me sick is #1 and #5 on your list are the guys we passed on to get the picks to get Allen the following year... 

 

Josh has the potential to be better than Watson. 

 

And regarding Mahomes....well.... Bills missed him but so did a third of the league. 

 

Write off to bad fortune and a lame duck GM.  

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Solomon Grundy]

9 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What if Allen turns out just as good?

We’d all have a Merry Christmas

[Thurman#1]

Not yet.

 

And a guy like Minshew shouldn't be on your list. He's a 2nd stringer. Foles is the Jagz starter, injured or not. Same with Rudolph, Roethlisberger is the Steelers QB, even if the 2nd stringer is playing for the rest of the year.

 

And I find it hard to understand your question about Lamar Jackson. I suspect Allen will in the end be better, but right now there isn't a question that Jackson is better based on how people are playing now, which is all we have to go on for these 2nd year guys taking a step up.

 

Looking at the QBs you list, and putting Roethlisberger and Foles in, as should be done, I'd say Allen's top twelve, with a good possibility of earning a higher place as soon as mid-season as we figure out who guys like Darnold, Brissett, Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Flacco in the new offence, Rosen, Mariota, Carr and for that matter Josh Allen really are. Two games - particularly when teams don't yet have video on most of them in their new offenses or after important offseasons.

Edited September 16, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

The Pats game is going to be just absolutely huge, particularly if we beat the Bengals, which I think we will.

We will need those two missed TD’s to beat the Patriots. I think we should play super aggressive in that game vs the Patriots. Go for 2 point conversions and air it out all game long.

[MR8]

17 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What if Allen turns out just as good?

 

Well obviously that'd be great... but he hasn't shown that yet. 

9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Josh has the potential to be better than Watson, and Mahomes well.... Bills missed him but so did a third of the league. 

 

Write off to bad fortune and a lame duck GM.  

 

 

 

McDermott was running the draft, so no I refuse to blame Whaley....

 

And Mahomes is looking like the next coming of Tom Brady, saying Allen can be better is just silly... Watson has been a better game manager and better QB since day 1 than Allen has shown yet... 

 

And Allen may have the potential to be great, he also has the potential to suck... works both ways brother. 

 

Its funny how quick people come out of the wood work to act like Allen is the best ever. 

14 minutes ago, Bills2ref said:

Watson was Whaley’s guy, if he stayed and made the pick. Whaley was “in love” with Watson. This is why I think Whaley was simply not allowed to pick a QB in that draft. They obviously knew he was being fired and wanted that decision in the hands of the new front office. Mahomes was never, ever the guy. If you want to play that game then you would need to have replaced the entire front office a year earlier. The real comparison, therefore, is Allen vs Watson. Watson is definitely ahead now. But he is no where near out of reach. I have a suspicion Allen in year 3 could be just as good as Watson in year 3. 

 

Where is this coming from?  Please provide sources since I've NEVER heard this before you posted it... 

Edited September 16, 2019 by MR8

[Nextmanup]

Just now, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

We will need those two missed TD’s to beat the Patriots. I think we should play super aggressive in that game vs the Patriots. Go for 2 point conversions and air it out all game long.

You are preaching to the choir my friend.  I pointed out several missed throws and points/big plays left on the field by Allen in yesterday's game, and of course, the usual homer/kool aid types attack me for daring to point these things out.

 

If we are going to do anything big while NE is NE, we will have to be able to beat that team and leaving points on the field will not get the job done.

 

On a positive note, I LOVED the way we were finishing drives with TDs yesterday and not a bunch of FGs.  That is another critical factor if we are going to beat NE.

Won't get 'er done with FGs!
 

I do not believe McDermott will play aggressively and go for 2 points.  In fact, I feel like I know he will not.  Maybe he will surprise me this year. 

 

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, the skycap said:

We’d all have a Merry Christmas

LOL.

 

Ifs and buts are the life blood of this fanbase!
 

 

[elijah]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Looks like top 3 to me.

 

 

You’re already ready to put Josh ahead of Rivers, Baker and Watson?

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, and I really want too do the same, but I just can’t justify it for myself. 

 

What’s your reasoning? 

[4merper4mer]

Why would Brissett be so low?  Baker being rated by his TV commercials?  If so I agree because the one with the circuit breakers is funny.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Just now, elijah said:

You’re already ready to put Josh ahead of Rivers, Baker and Watson?

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, and I really want too do the same, but I just can’t justify it for myself. 

 

What’s your reasoning? 

 

Rivers hasnt looked good, baker is a punk and will implode, and watson has a way of coming up short.

 

 

[PetermansRedemption]

6 minutes ago, MR8 said:

 

Well obviously that'd be great... but he hasn't shown that yet. 

 

McDermott was running the draft, so no I refuse to blame Whaley....

 

And Mahomes is looking like the next coming of Tom Brady, saying Allen can be better is just silly... Watson has been a better game manager and better QB since day 1 than Allen has shown yet... 

 

And Allen may have the potential to be great, he also has the potential to suck... works both ways brother. 

 

Its funny how quick people come out of the wood work to act like Allen is the best ever. 

 

Where is this coming from?  Please provide sources since I've NEVER heard this before you posted it... 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2017/04/buffalo_bills_gm_doug_whaley_in_love_with_clemson_qb_deshaun_watson_report.html%3foutputType=amp

 

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Rivers hasnt looked good, baker is a punk and will implode, and watson has a way of coming up short.

 

 

Call Alabama and tell them about Watson's tendencies.  

[ALLEN1QB]

Why are we having this discussion we are 2 and O let's leave it at that. On to the Bengals

[The Jokeman]

20 minutes ago, Bills2ref said:

Watson was Whaley’s guy, if he stayed and made the pick. Whaley was “in love” with Watson. This is why I think Whaley was simply not allowed to pick a QB in that draft. They obviously knew he was being fired and wanted that decision in the hands of the new front office. Mahomes was never, ever the guy. If you want to play that game then you would need to have replaced the entire front office a year earlier. The real comparison, therefore, is Allen vs Watson. Watson is definitely ahead now. But he is no where near out of reach. I have a suspicion Allen in year 3 could be just as good as Watson in year 3. 

and yet we have Allen, White and Edmunds. To me all three are better than just Watson and/or Mahomes.

[jletha]

24 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Slightly off-topic, but has it been announced that Big Ben's surgery is "Tommy John Surgery" ???

 

That is a 2 year recovery, which probably means Big Ben has played his last game in the NFL.

 

That is deserving of its own thread.

 

This season is starting to shape up.  Miami and the Jets look like 4 automatic wins this year.  Pittsburgh is usually a strong competitor but that game is now going to be a LOT easier....

 

 

I agree with this.  I think we have just beaten a pair of 5 win teams.  Let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

 

 

I have not seen that announced, only speculated. Its not really 2 years, more like 18 months tops. Either way thats true for baseball but that doesnt mean its true for football. Delhomme had the same thing and was fine much sooner than 2 years.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by jletha

[elijah]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Rivers hasnt looked good, baker is a punk and will implode, and watson has a way of coming up short.

 

 

I understand the sentiment but I’m going too have to disagree, I’m not ready to put Josh above them just yet. 

 

Rivers may not look good but he’s looked good for the past 14 years, we can’t win put Josh ahead of him just yet after two weeks. 

 

Baker may be ready to implode, but he hasn’t imploded yet and until he does, he’s unfortunately better than Josh.  This is coming from someone who was vehemently against Baker on draft day. 

 

And Watson finding a way to come up short, while he isn’t winning every game he plays in, he just led an amazing comeback drive in 2 plays that he would’ve won if not for Brees on the other side of the ball, and he’s 12-6 since his rookie season.  Also not a huge Watson guy, but he’s doing better than Josh as of right now. 

[TheBrownBear]

6 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Why would Brissett be so low?  Baker being rated by his TV commercials?  If so I agree because the one with the circuit breakers is funny.

 

Yeah, Brissett is a good young QB that should be in the middle of the AFC pack.  He's put up 5 TD/1 Int and a 107 QB rating through two weeks against two very solid defenses in TN and the Chargers.

[MR8]

15 minutes ago, Bills2ref said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2017/04/buffalo_bills_gm_doug_whaley_in_love_with_clemson_qb_deshaun_watson_report.html%3foutputType=amp

 

 

Interesting... I still say Allen needs to be compared to his class and Watson & Mahomes because Mahomes was TAKEN WITH OUR PICK... But I will concede that based on this link, you're right, it seems there as a high probability we would've leaned Watson not Mahomes had we taken one.... 

 

FTR, I am not saying Allen sucks or something, but we did choose to NOT take two guys who are established franchise QBs and kick the can down the road to get a shot at "A QB" who became Allen.  So in year 2 talking about where Allen fits in, when Mahomes in year 2 was a proven Franchise QB, and Watson in year 1 set the leage on fire and was great in his second year.... Allen is behind them.  He can still catch up, and I hope he does, but it's definitely worth noting that we passed up 2 of the best young QBs in the NFL to wait on a QB.  So if Allen doesn't become what they are, that's a fail.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Josh Allen has really looked sharp so far this season. I hate that the coaches pulled back vs the Giants. That game should have easily been Allen's 1st 300 yard game. I really hated that. 

 

I need to see him have a  big day passing before I put him in the top 6 of the AFC.

Edited September 16, 2019 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

18 minutes ago, MR8 said:

 

Well obviously that'd be great... but he hasn't shown that yet. 

 

McDermott was running the draft, so no I refuse to blame Whaley....

 

And Mahomes is looking like the next coming of Tom Brady, saying Allen can be better is just silly... Watson has been a better game manager and better QB since day 1 than Allen has shown yet... 

 

And Allen may have the potential to be great, he also has the potential to suck... works both ways brother. 

 

Its funny how quick people come out of the wood work to act like Allen is the best ever. 

 

Where is this coming from?  Please provide sources since I've NEVER heard this before you posted it... 

 

Who is suggesting he’s the best ever? He’s looking very promising and continuing to improve. Potential is a word, with meaning. 

 

After seeing the gamut of QBs from Peterman/Tuel to Tyrod/Bledsoe and a lot of meh in between since Jim Kelly, this looks different. 

 

As as far as Mahomes that was a redirect to why the bills missed him not comparing to josh... although I don’t buy that every other nfl head coach not named any Reid has the same outcome with pm. 

 

And on the miss: 

McDermott  was new, all the scouts and the board were set by Whaley. It was not good timing to take a swing on a questionable prospect at 10 even if McDermott knew a single thing about PM which he might not have. He was busy trying to turn around an entire franchise. tough luck there, but it might just turnout ok anyway. 

 

 

 

 

[MR8]

3 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Who is suggesting he’s the best ever? He’s looking very promising and continuing to improve. Potential is a word, with meaning. 

 

After seeing the gamut of QBs from Peterman/Tuel to Tyrod/Bledsoe and a lot of meh in between since Jim Kelly, this looks different. 

 

As as far as Mahomes that was a redirect to why the bills missed him not comparing to josh... although I don’t buy that every other nfl head coach not named any Reid has the same outcome with pm. 

 

And on the miss: 

McDermott  was new, all the scouts and the board were set by Whaley. It was not good timing to take a swing on a questionable prospect at 10 even if McDermott knew a single thing about PM which he might not have. He was busy trying to turn around an entire franchise. tough luck there, but it might just turnout ok anyway. 

 

 

 

 

 

Bills fans keep making this same mistake... stop comparing these Bills or this QB to the Bills and Bills QBs of the past... compare them to the rest of the NFL Today! That's what matters! 

 

Doesn't matter if he is the best we've had since Kelly, that's a VERY low bar.... We want him to be Good because he's good compared to the rest of the CURRENT MODERN NFL.

[Thurman#1]

39 minutes ago, Bills2ref said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2017/04/buffalo_bills_gm_doug_whaley_in_love_with_clemson_qb_deshaun_watson_report.html%3foutputType=amp

 

 

 

Have you got more sources?

 

I'm not unwilling to believe that, but what is in that article is anything but definitive. It's a GM who had heard that Whaley loved him. There are such things as smokescreens and disinformation in drafts. 

 

A GM, "... believes the Bills could be the one team to take a quarterback before the 20s based on what he's heard about Doug Whaley's feelings on Clemson QB Deshaun Watson. Miller added: The wild card, he said, is Buffalo at No. 10 overall if general manager Doug Whaley is "as in love with [Deshaun] Watson as we hear he is."

 

There's a lot of waffle words in there. "If". "based on what he's heard." "believes." "The wild card is." "we hear he is."

And why should the Bills have paid much attention to Whaley's opinion on QBs? He was all in on EJ Manuel.

I believe what McDermott has said on this, that he'd had too much on his plate getting the foundation of the team in place and simply hadn't had the time to put in to make a decision on that class of QBs. And he didn't say it, but I think it's likely that he wanted another voice he respected to back him up on that decision and that with Whaley and not Beane as GM, he didn't have one.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Thurman#1

[ddaryl]

His trajectory says top 6 AFC ranking imminent