How long to close the competitive gap?

[row_33]

If Brady returns it’s practically an automatic 0-2 off the bat and the only hope is for a wild card that sometimes requires a better record than division winners

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by row_33

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

The Mario Williams signing didn't hurt the teams long term success at all.

 

That guy was worth the contact they gave him and flammed out as soon as Rex came here. He still performed to the level of his contract. 

 

You know a splashy signing can make long term sense right? 

Mario Williams deserves his entire own thread in this discussion, but I’d be curious what the consensus is concerning his production versus contract value over time. I don’t recall being impressed, sorry ? 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The Mario Williams signing didn't hurt the teams long term success at all.

 

That guy was worth the contract they gave him and flammed out as soon as Rex came here. He still performed to the level of his contract. 

 

You know a splashy signing can make long term sense right? 

 

It didn’t HELP it. We needed help across the board, not at one position. I prefer the big picture.

 

Look, once again, you lean toward the negative (in a hard way), and I currently lean toward the positive (that was NOT the case when Rexy was around). Nothing to be gained here. Have a nice night (if you allow that). 

[SinceThe70s]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Mario Williams type signings do not make for sustained winning. We were NOT one player away. Poyer and Hyde I liked much more. I’m not for selling out for instant gratification unless it makes long term sense. 

 

Look, we have a couple different camps here. I prefer to be hopeful and realize every move won’t be perfect. I want to win and win now. I realize that’s not easy to do. I know others are frustrated and want immediate success. Everybody is frustrated, but anyone who wants “playoffs or bust” type of regime changes is just asking for more frustration. New FO, new coaches, new schemes, different fit of players needed, etc. Starting over every 2-3 years is how we got where we are. I give these guys a chance until I’m POSITIVE they can’t do it. You can feel any way you like. 

 

Nobody is going to change anyone else’s opinion here, so I’ll back off. 

 

I tend more towards yours and Teefs way of thinking, but I disagree with the bolded above. Is there a regime since 2000 that you think would have succeeded had they been given more time? I'm all for continuity but it has to be positive continuity.  

[Mat68]

Allen and Edmunds look like franchise pillars.  The defense with a player added here or could easily be tops in the league.  The offense is clearly needed of an infusion of talent.  The caliber of Beanes pro scouting will be put on full display. 

 

The offense needs major improvements in every position.  Who Buffalo targets first will be intersting.  Beane has showed agression in the past will he do that again?  Their are some interesting guys to explore on the offensive side.  Will they get in a bidding war over Bell? Will they investigate his past and consider Hunt? Would they bring in ultra diva Antonio Brown? I would not be surprised by any of those moved but I also would not expect them.

 

  Rb based off current trends can be easily upgraded on the third day of the draft.  Oline, Wr, and Te is not as easy.  Alot is scheme and offense dependent.  How in sync is the coaching staff and Beane?  What kind of run game should they utilize? Imo power fits Dawkins and Teller better so that should be where they go.  Are the available FA suitable with that style?  

 

Foster and McKenzie are pleasant surprises.  Jones is Jones.  A guy who can high point the ball and make contested catches is desperately needed.  Zay is not that guy.  Williams has those traits but is a complete longshot.  A guy with #1 potential is needed.  A guy you can use to dictate coverage.  Does the draft have that guy? Idk.  I'm also confident the draft sites and gurus do not know neither.  The spread offenses has made it hard to accurately evaluate Wr from college to pro.  Similar to Oline.  

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, H2o said:

I think with a good offseason we will be back in the playoffs next year and a legit contender in the AFC by 2020. 

 

 

Not soon enough. Fire everyone!!!    ?

[LSHMEAB]

10 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I’m guessing untenable long term cap squeezes, a la Doug Whaley management style? 

There's really nothing wrong with splashy signings if they play well. The problem with Whaley was the same problem we've had for 20 years. No franchise quarterback. Now we've got the guy who's supposed to be the answer and there's built in excuses for his performance because we don't have enough talent. That's what makes this offseason make or break. They either make the necessary moves to field a competitive team and the QB performs well with the improved talent or it should be time to move on.

 

Handing out 10 mil a year to a DT who doesn't make plays is a big signing with little flash. They need to do better than that.

Edited January 14, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Augie]

1 minute ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I tend more towards yours and Teefs way of thinking, but I disagree with the bolded above. Is there a regime since 2000 that you think would have succeeded had they been given more time? I'm all for continuity but it has to be positive continuity.  

 

I’m STRICTLY talking about this group. I’ve had varying opinions in the past, but I feel the best about these guys. (And the worst about Rex!) 

[dabills21]

Improving our record, making the playoffs, or closing the gap on contending teams, all hinges on Allen and his progress.  I think that's a simple fact that most of us can agree on.

 

Putting talent around him is step 1.  Beane and McDermott already have a nice core on defense.  We have the money and draft capital to pull off a similar transition to what the Bears just did....minus the Mack trade perhaps.

 

From there, we can all just hope that Allen takes a big step forward in 2019 and continue his late year progression.

 

I don't think anyone is resting on mediocrity.  I for one am just being realistic that Allen might take a little more time to progress, given he had quite a few tendencies to correct and was very raw coming into the league.  Kid works hard, he'll eventually get there, and we shouldn't be ready to jump ship after his 2nd year...thats what some of us are saying

 

[Bangarang]

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It didn’t HELP it. We needed help across the board, not at one position. I prefer the big picture.

 

Look, once again, you lean toward the negative (in a hard way), and I currently lean toward the positive (that was NOT the case when Rexy was around). Nothing to be gained here. Have a nice night (if you allow that). 

 

What are you talking about he didn’t help? He was part of the best defensive fronts in the league. We were tops on the league in sacks and defense. Our problems were on offense.

[dabills21]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

His 2014 season was defensive MVPish. The guy was a force that year.

 

He was solid in 2012. Very good in 2013. And among the best defensive players in the game in 2014. Enter Rex and he fell off a cliff.  Still worth the contract even with that marginal to bad 2015 season. 

I think most would be lying if they say they didn't want Mario to sign with us several years ago.

 

And yes, he had several really good to great seasons.  Rex coming in didn't help his career, that s for sure.  But he might have been on the decline anyhow, and battling through injuries.

 

The unfortunate part, is that we shelled out a MASSIVE signing bonus and guaranteed money to get him...which then was amortized several seasons out and backloaded his contract.  So by the time he was on the decline, we were stuck with so much dead cap.

 

Smart, rationale contracts and proper cap management are things that I think Beane will do, and has already implemented.  So yeah, we might make a big signing, but i don't think we'll backload contracts as heavy as prior regimes

[SinceThe70s]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I’m STRICTLY talking about this group. I’ve had varying opinions in the past, but I feel the best about these guys. (And the worst about Rex!) 

 

I hear ya. In my mind the jury's out on these two.

 

They get high praise for breaking the drought and the strong defenses.

 

But apart from drafting Allen, the QB situation has been an abomination. I hate picking at scabs, but their reliance on Peterman was mind-numbing and made me question their competence.

 

They are positioned to field a playoff contending team next year. We should expect that and not another 7 win wait-until-next-year season.

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

What are you talking about he didn’t help? He was part of the best defensive fronts in the league. We were tops on the league in sacks and defense. Our problems were on offense.

 

Maybe a bad example, but what we needed was A LOT of help! NOT one guy. That, and it kind of pissed me off when he showed he had no heart, but that’s another topic. 

 

I will wait and see. Unlike so many here, I don’t pretend to have the expertise to do better than the FO. But I’m hopeful for the first time in a long time. 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

People want to talk about expectations.  Let the league/Allen’s contemporaries set the bar on what those expectations will be.

 

The previous FIVE 1st Round QBs have ALL in their SECOND SEASONS guided their teams to DIVISION TITLES.

 

Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson.

 

Thats the realistic bar for the BUFFALO BILLS if they Are serious.  Maybe they really aren’t serious.  Or maybe they will set it lower for fear of being forced to start over again.

 

But that is the bar set.

Very valid point , BUT no other division in football is competing against the most consistent team in NFL history, a team that just made its 8th consecutive AFC title game. 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I hear ya. In my mind the jury's out on these two.

 

They get high praise for breaking the drought and the strong defenses.

 

But apart from drafting Allen, the QB situation has been an abomination. I hate picking at scabs, but their reliance on Peterman was mind-numbing and made me question their competence.

 

They are positioned to field a playoff contending team next year. We should expect that and not another 7 win wait-until-next-year season.

 

IF Allen is the guy, I don’t care. Sure, a miss, but I can live with it IF Allen is the guy. 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they need to make the playoffs in 2019. I think they need to improve... 7 wins they probably stay, 8 or more and progress from Allen they definitely stay. 

 

2020 is the year when I think they HAVE to make the postseason again. By that point this will be their team lock, stock and barrell. 

 

EDIT: That said with the Dolphins apparently about to have a major reset to target a QB in 2020 and the way our schedule shapes up beyond that (playing the AFC North at a good time IMO and Denver and Tennessee as our 3rd place opponents plus the NFC East) I think the Bills could very well be in wildcard contention in 2019 and the Pats are slowly coming back to the pack in the division too. 

A 3rd year plan with no playoffs (accounting for the weird fluke that was last year) is unacceptable. Other new regimes pull it off all of the time by year 3. It’s on them to do it. Barring an extreme injury situation, no excuses.

[Seoulofstone]

It’s funny how quickly things can change. If the Bills make the playoffs this coming season, that will be 2 out of 3 years despite inheriting a weak roster with ageing players and no cap space. There will always be fans who judge their QB against Mahomes and their coach against McVay. I’m seeing reasons to have faith rather than dreaming of upgrades at HC and GM.

[from_dunkirk]

2 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Fix the STs

Fix the Oline in FA

1 WR early in the draft

1 very good TE in the first round of the draft

get a young RB in that can carry the load 

and we are there

 

1. It will be difficult to completely fix the OL in free agency. You need to draft to find a franchise LT. They are rarely available in free agency. It might have been a mistake to trade away Glenn.

2. There is no way we are drafting a TE in the first, not with bigger needs at WR, OL, DT, and CB.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 minutes ago, from_dunkirk said:

 

1. It will be difficult to completely fix the OL in free agency. You need to draft to find a franchise LT. They are rarely available in free agency. It might have been a mistake to trade away Glenn.

2. There is no way we are drafting a TE in the first, not with bigger needs at WR, OL, DT, and CB.

1. We need 2 Olineman. (1T+1G)With 90 mil, totally do-able

2. CB is absolutely not a need and I just said OL can be fixed in FA. Certainly can take a TE round 1

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

1. We need 2 Olineman. (1T+1G)With 90 mil, totally do-able

2. CB is absolutely not a need and I just said OL can be fixed in FA. Certainly can take a TE round 1

 

Is there a TE you would take at #9??? 

 

I totally get the need, I need to see a practical vision. 

[from_dunkirk]

2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

1. We need 2 Olineman. (1T+1G)With 90 mil, totally do-able

2. CB is absolutely not a need and I just said OL can be fixed in FA. Certainly can take a TE round 1

 

If you think Dion is a franchise LT, then ok. And a number of mocks have us taking Greedy Williams at 9. We need a CB more than a TE as long as we have Clay.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

1 minute ago, from_dunkirk said:

 

If you think Dion is a franchise LT, then ok. And a number of mocks have us taking Greedy Williams at 9. We need a CB more than a TE as long as we have Clay.

How about sliding Dion to RT? I think regardless we are 2 lineman out here. I can live with him at either LT or RT but I want almost no lineman in the draft. We have plenty of money in FA and the college game doesn’t develop lineman. Not to mention how terrible the skill position players are in FA. I want the Oline fixed in FA.

[Doc Brown]

33 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I hear ya. In my mind the jury's out on these two.

 

They get high praise for breaking the drought and the strong defenses.

 

But apart from drafting Allen, the QB situation has been an abomination. I hate picking at scabs, but their reliance on Peterman was mind-numbing and made me question their competence.

 

They are positioned to field a playoff contending team next year. We should expect that and not another 7 win wait-until-next-year season.

My concern is the possibility that we can't get any OL, WR, or TE free agents who would be upgrades to sign here despite throwing a lot of money at them.  At best you'll have two to three players from the draft that can significantly upgrade a position in the draft.  We have more holes than that on offense.  If we strike out on free agency, I'll be expecting around a .500 ball club. 

[from_dunkirk]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

How about sliding Dion to RT? I think regardless we are 2 lineman out here. I can live with him at either LT or RT but I want almost no lineman in the draft. We have plenty of money in FA and the college game doesn’t develop lineman. Not to mention how terrible the skill position players are in FA. I want the Oline fixed in FA.

 

I just hope there is someone good out there in FA if Dawkins shifts to RT. I can't see any good TE's to draft at 9. I can see us drafting an OT though in Jonah Williams or Greg Little, or DT or even WR.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

His 2014 season was defensive MVPish. The guy was a force that year.

 

He was solid in 2012. Very good in 2013. And among the best defensive players in the game in 2014. Enter Rex and he fell off a cliff.  Still worth the contract even with that marginal to bad 2015 season. 

Maybe I was reading too much Sully analysis of MW’s lack of mental fortitude back in those days? And you’re right, I’d forgotten his first couple years he put up very solid #s, but how he left with awful effort his last few here, discount against the value of his overall historically high K, and the fact that he didn’t help get us over the drought hump, all combine to make him as forgettable as anybody else we’ve left behind in previous drought regimes, fair or not that may be. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/after-further-review-heres-the-proof-that-mario-williams-quit-on-the-bills/amp/

54 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Maybe a bad example, but what we needed was A LOT of help! NOT one guy. That, and it kind of pissed me off when he showed he had no heart, but that’s another topic. 

 

I will wait and see. Unlike so many here, I don’t pretend to have the expertise to do better than the FO. But I’m hopeful for the first time in a long time. 

Nah Augie, you hold that line! Was not a bad example, imho. 

Edited January 14, 2019 by NoHuddleKelly12

[iinii]

54 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

1. We need 2 Olineman. (1T+1G)With 90 mil, totally do-able

2. CB is absolutely not a need and I just said OL can be fixed in FA. Certainly can take a TE round 1

You can a TE at 9 but...... probably not what is best or will happen. 

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I hear ya. In my mind the jury's out on these two.

 

They get high praise for breaking the drought and the strong defenses.

 

But apart from drafting Allen, the QB situation has been an abomination. I hate picking at scabs, but their reliance on Peterman was mind-numbing and made me question their competence.

 

They are positioned to field a playoff contending team next year. We should expect that and not another 7 win wait-until-next-year season.

I actually have faith in Pegula that McBeane will be gone at end of next year if we have another disappointing season.

 

The key is how you define "disappointing" and different people are going to have different definitions and thresholds for when serious action needs to take place.  6 wins?  These guys are gone.

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

My concern is the possibility that we can't get any OL, WR, or TE free agents who would be upgrades to sign here despite throwing a lot of money at them.  At best you'll have two to three players from the draft that can significantly upgrade a position in the draft.  We have more holes than that on offense.  If we strike out on free agency, I'll be expecting around a .500 ball club. 

A lot of folks here have been talking all season long like next year's cap room and FA signings are some type of guaranteed, magic wand solution for turning a bad team into a good one.  It doesn't work that easily in practice.

 

There really aren't a lot of good OL FAs available for starters.  And then we have to compete with everyone else in the league to get any FA as you point out, and that's a battle we lose to most destinations in the NFL.  

 

My point is that cap room, FA signings, and  bunch of draft picks aren't going to magically create a playoff roster.  McBeane have a huge challenge in front of them and they are going to have make a ton of correct decisions in a single off-season.

 

It should be really interesting to see how this off-season plays out though.

 

 

[par73]

4 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Fix the STs

Fix the Oline in FA

1 WR early in the draft

1 very good TE in the first round of the draft

get a young RB in that can carry the load 

and we are there

Need a good edge rusher, as well.

[Aussie Joe]

So have we come to a TBD consensus yet? 

 

Would have thought a straight forward question like this would have found early common ground..

[Scorp83]

4 hours ago, Ga boy said:

I'm not that impressed with most of the playoff teams I watched the past 2 weeks.  The games were mostly hard to watch.  Pats, Rams, Chiefs, and Saints are the best this year;  however,  Pats and Saints will be falling off soon once the QBs exit.  We're not that far from being competitive with the other 27 teams.  I see us getting there with 4 key players:  2 OL, 1 WR, and a pass rusher.  Also, the playoffs validate once again that QB is key, and we've got ours now.  I look forward to being regular participants in the January games into the 20s.  Go Bills!!  

Is Tom Brady still playing next year or the year after???

 

If so... whenever his retirement is. That's when we'll close this gap

[WideNine]

The Bills will be competitive once they can beat a Brady-led NE team, or he retires. The biggest obstacle to the Bills sniffing the post season over the past 2 decades is NE and we can talk personnel and player changes till we are blue, but if they don't get that monkey off their backs and turn those 2 L's into W's they cannot be competitive.

 

The Bills get the brunt of the jokes from NFL teams that have not had to be in the same division as NE, so they are shocked when the Bills go out and spank a Vikings team or play other out-of-division teams tough. Is what it is, but the tide may be turning...grandpa Brady can't do it forever and we have a dynamic young QB and a chance to build this right McBeane better be burning the midnight oil for this off season to find the right coaches and players to build that foundation.

 

[Ol Dirty B]

5 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I tend to agree, but I read here that some people are giving them only one more year, and that’s it! 

 

 

(No details provided as to the what if......) 

 

Why do they deserve more than 1 year? 

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

It didn’t HELP it. We needed help across the board, not at one position. I prefer the big picture.

 

Look, once again, you lean toward the negative (in a hard way), and I currently lean toward the positive (that was NOT the case when Rexy was around). Nothing to be gained here. Have a nice night (if you allow that). 

 

As i recall, our defense was historically bad under Chan Gailey/Dave Wannstedt.  Within a few years of signing Mario, we were the 4th best Defense in the NFL giving up 18.1 per game.  Then Rex arrived and mesed everything up.

 

I think Mario contributed his fair share in making that happen.  That DLine with Mario, Kyle, Jerry, and Mr. Big Stuff was STOUT.  They could even make Rodgers look silly

 

 

[Ol Dirty B]

2 hours ago, Seoul_panther said:

It’s funny how quickly things can change. If the Bills make the playoffs this coming season, that will be 2 out of 3 years despite inheriting a weak roster with ageing players and no cap space. There will always be fans who judge their QB against Mahomes and their coach against McVay. I’m seeing reasons to have faith rather than dreaming of upgrades at HC and GM.

 

I read this stuff and I wonder if I've watched the same thing as you... They made the team older, traded and created the dead cap space.

 

They created this. The inherit bs is what Beane and McDermott are selling to make that next contract. 

[Doc Brown]

50 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

A lot of folks here have been talking all season long like next year's cap room and FA signings are some type of guaranteed, magic wand solution for turning a bad team into a good one.  It doesn't work that easily in practice.

 

There really aren't a lot of good OL FAs available for starters.  And then we have to compete with everyone else in the league to get any FA as you point out, and that's a battle we lose to most destinations in the NFL.  

 

My point is that cap room, FA signings, and  bunch of draft picks aren't going to magically create a playoff roster.  McBeane have a huge challenge in front of them and they are going to have make a ton of correct decisions in a single off-season.

 

It should be really interesting to see how this off-season plays out though.

 

 

That's a unit we're pry going to have to build through the draft.  Let's not hope we have a repeat of 2007 where we had all that cap room and gave massive contracts to average at best o-lineman (Walker and Dockery) the first day and ignore the postion in the draft.  If they dish out huge contracts to Daryl Williams and/or Trent Brown they better have done their homework to make sure they're worth the risk as Williams is coming off a major injury and Brown has a reputation of being lazy before going to NE. 

 

You're right in that it's unrealistic to expect a drastic turnaround on offense after one offseason.  We just have too many holes and not enough FA options/draft picks to fill them.    I think they'll improve, but not to the point where we are serious contenders.  I'd be surprised if we made the playoffs next year.  I think it's going to take at least two offseasons of drafting, making smart free agent acquistions, and developing this offense to the point we can regularly compete for the Division.  Hopefully, we can keep our defense intact and Josh Allen will turn into the franchise QB we've been longing for.

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, from_dunkirk said:

And a number of mocks have us taking Greedy Williams at 9. We need a CB more than a TE as long as we have Clay.

 

if we draft a CB at #9 I'm going to throw a brick through my TV.

 

i would argue that as long as we have Clay we are in DIRE NEED of a TE.

 

we lost a game because he flubbed a catch in the EZ this year and last year, 1/2 of Hotrod's picks bounced off of Clay's hands. One in the EZ.

 

ENOUGH ALREADY.

 

 

[Ol Dirty B]

25 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

As i recall, our defense was historically bad under Chan Gailey/Dave Wannstedt.  Within a few years of signing Mario, we were the 4th best Defense in the NFL giving up 18.1 per game.  Then Rex arrived and mesed everything up.

 

I think Mario contributed his fair share in making that happen.  That DLine with Mario, Kyle, Jerry, and Mr. Big Stuff was STOUT.  They could even make Rodgers look silly

 

 

 

One of my favorite games I've attended. I was sitting in that corner of the endzone Rodgers where Rodgers fumbled late. I thought for sure they were going to the playoffs.

 

 

[reddogblitz]

4 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

One of my favorite games I've attended. I was sitting in that corner of the endzone Rodgers where Rodgers fumbled late. I thought for sure they were going to the playoffs.

 

 

 

if only we could have be at the 3-13 Raiders the following week ...

[Seoulofstone]

1 hour ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

I read this stuff and I wonder if I've watched the same thing as you... They made the team older, traded and created the dead cap space.

 

They created this. The inherit bs is what Beane and McDermott are selling to make that next contract. 

 

 They created dead cap for one year to get the monkey off their back. In a year with a rookie QB when they were never going to contend. What ‘old’ players did they bring in? Vontae maybe, Ivory I guess? Not exactly horrendous albatross contracts though. Some might say recruiting safe veteran depth options with a rookie team is actually quite a smart tactic.

 

You can’t argue that they’ve not successfully drafted some good young players surely? Going into this season the loss of RIchie I and E Wood put them in an extremely tough position considering they knew they wanted centerpieces on O and D at QB and LB. So yes, I guess we are seeing things differently. Only a die hard Bills fan would say that this was a roster which gave McD a chance. Unless you are saying that Sammy Watkins and Dareus would have magically transformed this team into contenders.

 

Starting players who have been in the league 2 years or less:

 

Robert Foster, Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins, Josh Allen, Matt Milano, Ttedavious White, Tremaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, Harrison Phillips Wyatt Teller.

 

  Not bad for 2 off seasons work.

Edited January 14, 2019 by Seoul_panther

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

A 3rd year plan with no playoffs (accounting for the weird fluke that was last year) is unacceptable. Other new regimes pull it off all of the time by year 3. It’s on them to do it. Barring an extreme injury situation, no excuses.

 

But my point is i don't think 2019 is year 3 of a 3 year plan. I think it is year 2 of a three year plan because of the strange way they managed 2017. They would undoubtedly be under more pressure had the way they managed 2017 backfired but it didn't so they have made the playoffs by year 3 - they did it in year 1. Their 2nd year was more akin to year 1 of most new regimes. They will be expected to show progress in year 2 (which is really year 3) and then real signs of being ready to make a run with playoffs as a minimum in year 3 (which is really year 4). 

 

If they go 6-10 or worse in 2019 they should, and I think would, be fired. I can see scenarios where 7 wins would be fireable but suspect they would survive. 8-8 or better and they definitely will, and indeed should, be back in 2020.  

Edited January 14, 2019 by GunnerBill