Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[billsfan89]

I would like to see how Allen can improve with another off-season to work on his footwork and watch his own tape. I also want to see how much better he can play with better pass protection and better skill position players. 

[Putin]

2 hours ago, jahnyc said:

Hard to argue with the stats.  Allen will need to improve his accuracy to become a quality starter (or better) for the Bills, which we all had understood would need to happen when he was drafted.  I hope his accuracy when pressured will improve as he gets more comfortable with the offense and improves his ability to recognize defenses/pressures.  This does underscore the importance of making sure that we have the best possible coaches working with Allen to improve his accuracy since he is showing very good intangibles and rare athleticism and arm strength.

You want to improve his accuracy/completion % ? ?? 

How about you start by getting him a REAL nfl quality WR/TE and not bunch of practice squad or rejects from other teams , and maybe an OL that could give him more then 0.09 sec in the pocket on 3rd Downs , especially when it’s 3rd & 8, 9 because our running has been practically none existent , 

Hopefully all this will be addressed in the preseason , so having some experience as a starter this year  and with a full TC and preseason ( next year) under his belt without having to split reps with other QB’s (IMO) will make a huge difference in his all around performance next season!!!

Edited December 27, 2018 by Putin

[Chicken Boo]

Yeah I figured this thread wouldn't have many posts in it.

 

Thanks for the post, Thurman.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Chicken Boo

[mjt328]

Interesting that the original post didn't include this tidbit from the PFF article:

 

Quote

 

As a passer, Allen ranks first among qualified QBs with 20.7 percent of his passes traveling at least 20 yards in the air (only six quarterbacks are better than even 15 percent).

He leads all QBs with an average depth of target of 12.2 yards and his 5.3 big-time throw percentage ranks 11^th best among QBs. Allen clearly has no issues – and isn’t shy – when it comes to chucking the ball downfield. The rate at which he’s made those big-time throws (he’s nearly a full percentage point above the league average) proves that he’s capable of elevating his offense like great QBs do.

 

 

As I've mentioned before, almost every time Allen drops back into the pocket, he's being asked to make downfield throws.  It's the complete opposite of most other NFL offenses, which rely on constant check-downs and quick/easy passes.  This is going to have a major effect on his completion percentage, at every measurable level.

 

I've been watching this team for over 30 years now.  I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys.  I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special.  I feel optimism about Allen.

 

People can throws "statistics" at me all day.  I watch the games.  I see a play-action based offense that can't run the ball.  I see a downfield passing attack with an offensive line that can't hold a block longer than 1-2 seconds.  I see a group of wide receivers who rarely get open, constantly drop passes and never make plays on the ball.  This is a situation that would have most veterans shell-shocked.  But the rookie QB (who was supposed to be a major project and totally unprepared to play in the NFL) came back after the bye week, and is putting the offense on his back.

 

[BananaB]

Get him an Oline and a couple guys who can catch  and we are gonna win a lot of games. That is all that matters. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by BananaB

[SWATeam]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The adjusted stats quoted in the article already account for these.

They attempt to account for it, in a completely subjective manner.

 

These advanced "stats" are fun, but are too often used to advance some preconceived position.

 

Here are some issues I have with these "stats"-

 

• What happens with a miscommunication?  Say a situation where you have a new offensive system, and are trotting out an UDFA and a couple guys picked up mid-season who may not be on the same page with the QB?  What if they zig when Josh was expecting a zag?  Say Josh throws a beautiful back-shoulder throw and Zay just keeps running down the field?  An experienced QB, with experienced WR's, in an established system, is always going to appear more accurate.  
• Completely accounting for pressure is impossible.  Yes, if a free rusher comes, and the QB quickly throws it away- that's easy.  But let's say you have an awful o-line that constantly gives up pressure (know any team like that?).  The QB knows this- his clock is sped up, he's not a comfortable in the pocket and his mechanics could break down.  How do you account for constant pressure on previous plays creating inaccuracy on play where there might not be any perceived pressure?
• How do you define a "throwaway?"  There are many situations where everyone is basically covered, or the protection is breaking down, and the QB doesn't exactly throw it away- but will place it where only his guy has a chance to get it.  Where do you draw the line between inaccurate and a throwaway?

Josh is probably never going to be a high completion % guy.  He is going to push the ball down the field (which he should because it's his elite weapon), and it's easier to be more accurate with a pitching wedge than with a driver.  When you start with a lower completion %, even when adjusted it is hard to make up ground on people that started with a higher completion %.  That is generally how statistical adjustments work.  I didn't look, but I would bet that the completion % leaders would be pretty similar to the adjusted completion % leaders.

 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think Josh Allen is ever going to be a precision passer. He is not going to be Tom Brady, or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean he can't be an excellent Quarterback. Cam Newton is the often held up example of a guy who wasn't coming out and still isn't a precision passer and that is true and he led his team to a Superbowl berth. But equally Big Ben has never been a precision passer either. He is accurate enough to succeed and to have been borderline elite pretty much his whole career but he is not precise in the way I'd say Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even someone like a Matt Ryan is. Josh has definitely shown some improvement with experience and comfort in running the offense and I am absolutely certain his completion percentage will improve next year if the Bills put a better supporting cast around him. And I expect that improved supporting cast and increased comfort will lead to less natural inaccuracy. But I am not sure he is ever going to eradicate it completely - just like Cam hasn't and just like Ben still has his moments too.

 

This is a great point.

There are many different levels of accuracy in the NFL.  It's not just "accurate" or "inaccurate."

 

I think Josh Allen's game is most comparable to Ben Roethlisberger/Cam Newton.  And like you said, both are guys who have had good to great NFL success without the benefit of fantastic passing accuracy. 

 

Notice that Roethlisberger has always been surrounded by incredible WRs, strong running games and a solid offensive line.  Newton has had good running backs, but some pretty average/below average receivers and questionable blocking help.  Let's hope that our Carolina-based front office builds an offense closer to the Steelers than the Panthers.

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

As to your final line. I do think the changing of the guard is happening..... I expect New England to still be competitive for a division title and playoff berth in 2019 but far from the shoe in they have been in the past and beyond 2019 I think they may slip off the pace. The threat comes from the Jets. Sam Darnold like Allen seems to have returned from his injury a better Quarterback than he was before. His performance against the Packers last week is the best single game performance from any of the rookie QBs this year. Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

 

Agreed.  Sam Darnold was my favorite QB of the draft, and I was upset to see the Jets land him.

Based on what we've seen this year, the future of the AFC East just may be the Jets/Bills.

 

 

[Troll Toll]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The adjusted stats quoted in the article already account for these.

I’m sorry, but I don’t trust the subjectivity involved in such an analysis. As others have pointed out in past weeks, other QBs frequently have receivers make tough catches. I doubt they take those completions from other QBs and account for the fact that the same pass in terms of catch radius would be incomplete to our receivers. 

 

It’s like the Detroit game where they gave Stafford a far better QBR than Allen. Well guess what, Allen was the better QB and the Bills won. Stafford got lucky on a couple 50/50 balls against Tre White.

 

I trust what I see over what I’m told.

[26CornerBlitz]

8 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

They attempt to account for it, in a completely subjective manner.

 

These advanced "stats" are fun, but are too often used to advance some preconceived position.

 

Here are some issues I have with these "stats"-

 

• What happens with a miscommunication?  Say a situation where you have a new offensive system, and are trotting out an UDFA and a couple guys picked up mid-season who may not be on the same page with the QB?  What if they zig when Josh was expecting a zag?  Say Josh throws a beautiful back-shoulder throw and Zay just keeps running down the field?  An experienced QB, with experienced WR's, in an established system, is always going to appear more accurate.  
• Completely accounting for pressure is impossible.  Yes, if a free rusher comes, and the QB quickly throws it away- that's easy.  But let's say you have an awful o-line that constantly gives up pressure (know any team like that?).  The QB knows this- his clock is sped up, he's not a comfortable in the pocket and his mechanics could break down.  How do you account for constant pressure on previous plays creating inaccuracy on play where there might not be any perceived pressure?
• How do you define a "throwaway?"  There are many situations where everyone is basically covered, or the protection is breaking down, and the QB doesn't exactly throw it away- but will place it where only his guy has a chance to get it.  Where do you draw the line between inaccurate and a throwaway?

Josh is probably never going to be a high completion % guy.  He is going to push the ball down the field (which he should because it's his elite weapon), and it's easier to be more accurate with a pitching wedge than with a driver.  When you start with a lower completion %, even when adjusted it is hard to make up ground on people that started with a higher completion %.  That is generally how statistical adjustments work.  I didn't look, but I would bet that the completion % leaders would be pretty similar to the adjusted completion % leaders.

 

Like I figured, the ABB would try to explain this away with excuses.   The text I bolded isn't the way to win in the NFL as the QB needs to be able throw to the open guy and do so accurately to sustain drives that lead to points being scored.  You obviously want explosive plays, but the chains have to keep moving  in order to matriculate the ball down the field ( Thank You Hank Stram). 

 

2 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

I’m sorry, but I don’t trust the subjectivity involved in such an analysis. As others have pointed out in past weeks, other QBs frequently have receivers make tough catches. I doubt they take those completions from other QBs and account for the fact that the same pass in terms of catch radius would be incomplete to our receivers. 

 

It’s like the Detroit game where they gave Stafford a far better QBR than Allen. Well guess what, Allen was the better QB and the Bills won. Stafford got lucky on a couple 50/50 balls against Tre White.

 

I trust what I see over what I’m told.

 

ABB member?

Edited December 27, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Judging solely by what I have seen, not by any metrics or statistical analysis, Allen is a QB that will be fun to watch, as well as one who will occasionally do things no-one else can do, followed by screwing up things everyone else should be able to do.  Brett Favre comes to mind.  I am hoping that this style, when surrounded by a more talented supporting cast, will not only make for a fun offense to watch, but also one that can win enough games to be in the playoff mix for years to come.  He will likely be more of a high risk, high reward player, but that is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Buckle up Bills fans, we are a the beginning of a fun roller coaster ride, with plenty of highs and lows and twists and turns along the way...

 

 

Exactly how I see it.  Worst case we get two years of football with big splash plays mixed in with inconsistency and they move on.  Best case he gets better at the little details and the cast around him improves greatly allowing for him to need to do less.  Right now way too much of the offense is on his back which the article doesn't really touch on.  No exactly like the Bills have any run game or any success moving the football with qb friendly offense

[John from Riverside]

In one of the videos one of the PFF guys was harping about the across the body throws

 

He is throwing the ball away MUCH more in the NFL then he was at Wyoming......but they chose not to mention that.

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, teef said:

i'm with you.  i never though it was completely about allen's accuracy, (although i think we all know it will likely never be elite, and that's ok) but rather the speed of the game and decision making.  he just has to improve.  if next year looks too much like this year, we're all screwed.

I was thinking the same thing...people give him a pass this year because he is a rookie, but I doubt they will be as kind next year...the fan base has a tendency to turn on people very quickly if the don’t produce.

[SWATeam]

8 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Like I figured, the ABB would try to explain this away with excuses.    

 

 

ABB member?

Fantastic insights!

 

For the record, I liked Allen before the draft and before he became a Bill.  My eyeballs tell me he's going to be good.  

[Da webster guy]

I agree with Alphadawg.  The kid passes the eye test. 

 

He has pocket presence, elusiveness, and a knack for making plays.   He isn't Drew Brees (who now has 70% completion percentage but had a 57% completion, 11 TDs and 15 picks in his 3rd season)  but he will get there.

 

The guys to worry about now are Beane, McD and Daboll.   The way they do their jobs in the next 8 months are critical for what happens in the next few years.   

 

Beane has to have an all pro offseason.  We already know Josh will be ready.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Da webster guy

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am quoting the two specific bits of your post I am responding directly to. Firstly, in respect of point 3 - it wasn't Josh Allen's accuracy that was much worse to Kelvin Benjamin - it was his completion percentage. At times the PFF article distinguishes between completion percentage and accuracy and at other times it conflates the two. Josh Allen has still this season suffered from the same issue - that I termed 'natural' inaccuracy' - that he suffered from in college. Throws where there is no obvious technical reason for an inaccurate pass and yet the pass is inaccurate in any event. What has become evident is that it happens less frequently when he is comfortable and in rhythm - which is probably normal for all QBs - but it is not as easy as Josh is accurate in a clean pocket and inaccurate under pressure. It is something less obviously tangible than that.

 

Now what has happened since the injury is he has looked more comfortable and assured as a rule. Maybe that is the old adage about the game slowing down for him and I think that has led to a reduction in the instances of that natural inaccuracy rearing its ugly head. So I think there has been an improvement but again it requires more than an analytical breakdown of completion percentages to certain receivers or completion percentages under pressure to really see it and understand it. Josh Allen more than maybe any other Quarterback around is the poster boy for the phrase "no substitute for watching film." You have to watch him and go back and look at every throw.

 

I don't think Josh Allen is ever going to be a precision passer. He is not going to be Tom Brady, or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean he can't be an excellent Quarterback. Cam Newton is the often held up example of a guy who wasn't coming out and still isn't a precision passer and that is true and he led his team to a Superbowl berth. But equally Big Ben has never been a precision passer either. He is accurate enough to succeed and to have been borderline elite pretty much his whole career but he is not precise in the way I'd say Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even someone like a Matt Ryan is. Josh has definitely shown some improvement with experience and comfort in running the offense and I am absolutely certain his completion percentage will improve next year if the Bills put a better supporting cast around him. And I expect that improved supporting cast and increased comfort will lead to less natural inaccuracy. But I am not sure he is ever going to eradicate it completely - just like Cam hasn't and just like Ben still has his moments too.

 

As to your final line. I do think the changing of the guard is happening..... I expect New England to still be competitive for a division title and playoff berth in 2019 but far from the shoe in they have been in the past and beyond 2019 I think they may slip off the pace. The threat comes from the Jets. Sam Darnold like Allen seems to have returned from his injury a better Quarterback than he was before. His performance against the Packers last week is the best single game performance from any of the rookie QBs this year. Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

To me the answer is pretty simple.....put him in a position for success and see if he can be more successful

 

So many times this year he would have gotten sacked if he didnt bail out of the pocket

So many times receivers drop balls that should be caught.....the really upsetting ones are the touchdowns

So many times having to put the team on his shoulders because we flat cannot run the ball......this has been very frustrating to me as that has been a strength of this team for so many years

 

Fix it.....and see if Josh flourishes in it

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Interesting that the original post didn't include this tidbit from the PFF article:

 

 

As I've mentioned before, almost every time Allen drops back into the pocket, he's being asked to make downfield throws.  It's the complete opposite of most other NFL offenses, which rely on constant check-downs and quick/easy passes.  This is going to have a major effect on his completion percentage, at every measurable level.

 

I've been watching this team for over 30 years now.  I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys.  I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special.  I feel optimism about Allen.

 

People can throws "statistics" at me all day.  I watch the games.  I see a play-action based offense that can't run the ball.  I see a downfield passing attack with an offensive line that can't hold a block longer than 1-2 seconds.  I see a group of wide receivers who rarely get open, constantly drop passes and never make plays on the ball.  This is a situation that would have most veterans shell-shocked.  But the rookie QB (who was supposed to be a major project and totally unprepared to play in the NFL) came back after the bye week, and is putting the offense on his back.

 

Might have something to do with his accuracy issues with short passes. The must unbelievable misses always seem to be on simple dump passes. I also think that he has a knack for looking for the big play instead of the correct play. Even in college he had a tendency to try and push everything instead of making the right throw and moving the ball. I'm not going to put a lot of stock in how far he tries to throw it all the time since that doesn't seem to be a meaningful stat when measured against other winning QBs. 

[Boca BIlls]

We can always draft another QB.

[teef]

43 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I was thinking the same thing...people give him a pass this year because he is a rookie, but I doubt they will be as kind next year...the fan base has a tendency to turn on people very quickly if the don’t produce.

They sure do. I can’t blame anyone for a lack of patience at this point.  The trick is with qbs we have to be extra patient. I certainly don’t expect josh to be a highly polish product next year, but there needs to be visual/measurable improvements. 

[zonabb]

This is now becoming my favorite spectator sport... watching the diehard homers defend Allen, in the OP's case going so far as to imply there is no accuracy issue but using "issue" in quotes so as to discredit anyone before they even respond. Then there's the list of reasons he's inaccurate by another poster, with the top 3 being "not his fault" excuses. 

 

Everyone can try and sell this to themselves anyway that makes them feel good or better about Allen. But the fact is, game in and game out, he's wildly inaccurate. Just own it. He has one, let me restate that ONE, game where his completion percentage was above 60. You can't blame every game, inside and out, one everything but Allen. Darnold's been an inconsistent rookie as well, but his highs have far outweighed his lows. He has 6 games with a percentage over 60%. And his last 3 games his percentage is 66.0% with 6 TDs (one less than Allen's season total) and 1 INT. Allen in his last three is 49.5%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

But he's the proof he's not improving his accuracy. He's started 10 games (played in 11). In his first 10 starts, his completion percentage was 55.6%. His second 5 starts, it was 49.7%. So how then is he getting better in this crucial aspect of playing QB in the NFL? 

 

Even with bad receivers and a bad line, you should expect that experience, based on what I read here, should indicate that he can improve in this situation even marginally or maintain some level of consistency. I believe you should getter better even a little, over a season under the same of circumstances. If you don't, that's telling. 

 

I said it when he was drafted and will continue to say it over and over until a QB in this league improves substantially (give me a measure of statistical significance), that inaccuracy is unfixable. What's more, go back and look at the college stats of every Super Bowl winner since 2000. Not sure there is a guy in that group with a sub-60% college career.

 

So in the end, the homer argument is simple. He was a project, we knew that going it, and he'll get better with experience. The data and eye test (inc. All-22) debunk that argument in year 1. He simply hasn't show any improvement. So can a player who showed no improvement improve in his second year? There's a ton of people here who have a ton of flimsy justifications why he will but refuse to come with empirical evidence that would suggest it.

[Roundybout]

21 minutes ago, zonabb said:

This is now becoming my favorite spectator sport... watching the diehard homers defend Allen, in the OP's case going so far as to imply there is no accuracy issue but using "issue" in quotes so as to discredit anyone before they even respond. Then there's the list of reasons he's inaccurate by another poster, with the top 3 being "not his fault" excuses. 

 

Everyone can try and sell this to themselves anyway that makes them feel good or better about Allen. But the fact is, game in and game out, he's wildly inaccurate. Just own it. He has one, let me restate that ONE, game where his completion percentage was above 60. You can't blame every game, inside and out, one everything but Allen. Darnold's been an inconsistent rookie as well, but his highs have far outweighed his lows. He has 6 games with a percentage over 60%. And his last 3 games his percentage is 66.0% with 6 TDs (one less than Allen's season total) and 1 INT. Allen in his last three is 49.5%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

But he's the proof he's not improving his accuracy. He's started 10 games (played in 11). In his first 10 starts, his completion percentage was 55.6%. His second 5 starts, it was 49.7%. So how then is he getting better in this crucial aspect of playing QB in the NFL? 

 

Even with bad receivers and a bad line, you should expect that experience, based on what I read here, should indicate that he can improve in this situation even marginally or maintain some level of consistency. I believe you should getter better even a little, over a season under the same of circumstances. If you don't, that's telling. 

 

I said it when he was drafted and will continue to say it over and over until a QB in this league improves substantially (give me a measure of statistical significance), that inaccuracy is unfixable. What's more, go back and look at the college stats of every Super Bowl winner since 2000. Not sure there is a guy in that group with a sub-60% college career.

 

So in the end, the homer argument is simple. He was a project, we knew that going it, and he'll get better with experience. The data and eye test (inc. All-22) debunk that argument in year 1. He simply hasn't show any improvement. So can a player who showed no improvement improve in his second year? There's a ton of people here who have a ton of flimsy justifications why he will but refuse to come with empirical evidence that would suggest it.

 

Mass destruction for all at OBD then. God help us!

 

Oh and you're absolutely pathetic for making fun of people for being hopeful. Absolutely pathetic. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by BillsEnthusiast

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, zonabb said:

This is now becoming my favorite spectator sport... watching the diehard homers defend Allen, in the OP's case going so far as to imply there is no accuracy issue but using "issue" in quotes so as to discredit anyone before they even respond. Then there's the list of reasons he's inaccurate by another poster, with the top 3 being "not his fault" excuses. 

 

Everyone can try and sell this to themselves anyway that makes them feel good or better about Allen. But the fact is, game in and game out, he's wildly inaccurate. Just own it. He has one, let me restate that ONE, game where his completion percentage was above 60. You can't blame every game, inside and out, one everything but Allen. Darnold's been an inconsistent rookie as well, but his highs have far outweighed his lows. He has 6 games with a percentage over 60%. And his last 3 games his percentage is 66.0% with 6 TDs (one less than Allen's season total) and 1 INT. Allen in his last three is 49.5%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

But he's the proof he's not improving his accuracy. He's started 10 games (played in 11). In his first 10 starts, his completion percentage was 55.6%. His second 5 starts, it was 49.7%. So how then is he getting better in this crucial aspect of playing QB in the NFL? 

 

Even with bad receivers and a bad line, you should expect that experience, based on what I read here, should indicate that he can improve in this situation even marginally or maintain some level of consistency. I believe you should getter better even a little, over a season under the same of circumstances. If you don't, that's telling. 

 

I said it when he was drafted and will continue to say it over and over until a QB in this league improves substantially (give me a measure of statistical significance), that inaccuracy is unfixable. What's more, go back and look at the college stats of every Super Bowl winner since 2000. Not sure there is a guy in that group with a sub-60% college career.

 

So in the end, the homer argument is simple. He was a project, we knew that going it, and he'll get better with experience. The data and eye test (inc. All-22) debunk that argument in year 1. He simply hasn't show any improvement. So can a player who showed no improvement improve in his second year? There's a ton of people here who have a ton of flimsy justifications why he will but refuse to come with empirical evidence that would suggest it.

 

As soon as you try to buttress that way-too-drawn-out recycled stuff with "he hasn't shown any improvement", you lose whatever traction you had built.

 

 I will never understand why folks simply can't be reasonable about this kid

[jahnyc]

We are in wait and see mode for both of our first round picks last year (Allen and Edmunds).  Need to see significant improvement and development from both in year two.

[DuckyBoys]

Is he inaccurate or does he simply choose to throw the harder to complete passes too much?

[BakersBills]

if you compare pre injury to post injury, numbers would look alot better

[LSHMEAB]

41 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Mass destruction for all at OBD then. God help us!

 

Oh and you're absolutely pathetic for making fun of people for being hopeful. Absolutely pathetic. 

In all fairness, people bash every offensive player not named Josh Allen to shreds. So lets not pretend like he's making fun of people for being "hopeful." If every offensive player sucks, it doesn't bode well for the future of the franchise.

[BillsFan1988]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree and the KB point was just one minimal example of how it’s unfair to look at his season stats to identify growth.  I think everyone could and should agree that Josh is a better QB now than he was before he got hurt, and that goes beyond that stat sheet like you said.

 

And yeah, I agree with you that Jets are a threat, but I think we have a better foundation over all as we have a playoff ready Defense and IMHO a better coaching staff and GM.  Both teams though have the most importance development piece (young promising QB) and a ton of cap room.  So they certainly are a team with lots of upside right now too, but I feel more confident in our ability to turn the corner than I do in theirs.  

Really it aint gonna matter because its basically Darnold vs Allen . So far i hate to say it but Darnold looking like the better passer of the 2 by far.

[BillsFan1988]

1 hour ago, teef said:

They sure do. I can’t blame anyone for a lack of patience at this point.  The trick is with qbs we have to be extra patient. I certainly don’t expect josh to be a highly polish product next year, but there needs to be visual/measurable improvements. 

He needs to at the very least take a Trubisky type leap. Now im not a big fan of Mitch but he did get better in his 2nd season. Im expecting this from Allen. Not a Mahomes type leap or Goff a Trubisky that should be the goal.

[iinii]

The wheels on the bus go round and round.....

[DuckyBoys]

34 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

He needs to at the very least take a Trubisky type leap. Now im not a big fan of Mitch but he did get better in his 2nd season. Im expecting this from Allen. Not a Mahomes type leap or Goff a Trubisky that should be the goal.

talent around Trubisky got a lot better  Go look at what he is asked to do  Its all quick  barely above the los passing  with one or two deep looks per game

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Trogdor said:

Might have something to do with his accuracy issues with short passes. The must unbelievable misses always seem to be on simple dump passes. I also think that he has a knack for looking for the big play instead of the correct play. Even in college he had a tendency to try and push everything instead of making the right throw and moving the ball. I'm not going to put a lot of stock in how far he tries to throw it all the time since that doesn't seem to be a meaningful stat when measured against other winning QBs. 

 

So your theory is: 

Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead?

 

Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions.  However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, 17years&waiting said:

I'd be curious how many of these "contested" passes are the WR's not making plays on the ball, and are not necessarily Allen's fault.  It's hard to tell how they decide whether or not the pass was the QB's fault, but in my mind, I haven't seen that many passes that are Allen's fault.

 

Take for instance the Foster play in the sun against the Patriots: how does that count for PFF?  It's technically not a drop, because I don't think Foster touched it, but it was also maybe the best deep pass I've seen Allen throw this year.  Does it count as "inaccurate" in this rating system?

I'm just as curious as you are about how they rated this pass.  And do they use the "official" dropped pass metric which seems a bit lose to me, you know the one where Logan Thomas didn't drop the ball at the goal line?

 

It just seems to me that the amount of subjective as opposed to objective info that flows into this kind of analytic makes it very difficult to quantitate.   

Edited December 27, 2018 by CincyBillsFan

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Thanks for posting, Thurm.  

 

While some of the details are interesting, I don't think this article tells us anything we don't already know.   The more basic stats (like completion percentage) - and our own eyes - have already informed us that Josh has not been an accurate passer this season.

Josh's accuracy this year is not the real debate.  The more meaningful debate is how much he'll improve as a QB from Year 1 to Year 2.  I have not heard a convincing argument from either side.   Some say accuracy is a genetic hand-eye thing that does't ever get better.  Others say there are a lot more factors to completion percentage than precision with the ball: biomechanics, predictable & precise route running by the WRs, the ability to find the open guy (easiest target), and so on.  

 

Certainly some QBs have improved upon their Year 1 completion percentage.  Some have not.  Personally, I really don't know what to expect from Josh next year.

 

 

As other posters have pointed out Allen's improvement over the course of this season has been impressive and indicates that his improvement from year 1 to year 2, given a whole off season to work with AND better offensive weapons, will be substantial.  

[hondo in seattle]

I don't know if Allen will ever be a good QB.  But I do know that QBs playing for offenses that are well-oiled, finely tuned machines are more productive.

 

When a receiver (and we have a bunch of young ones) cuts a bit too soon, or too late, or takes a slightly angle after the cut, the result can change from a completion to something else.  And PFF can't account for this because they don't know what the receiver was supposed to do.  The pass looks errant and that's how it's graded.  

 

Or imagine this.  The beginning of the play is going well.  The snap is perfect.  The QB drops back and plants his feet just  the way he's been coached.  The OL creates a good pocket and the QB can see downfield clearly.  As he scans the defense, the QB realizes his pre-snap read was spot on.  The play is unfolding just as he hoped and gets ready to launch the ball...  and that's when something goes wrong with the WR.  He cuts right instead of left or slips behind the DB instead of cutting in front.    Now the QB is stressed.  He knows his OL isn't very good and the pocket won't last much longer.  He quickly searches for his #2 target.  The guy is covered but the QB doesn't believe the pocket will last much longer so he hurriedly forces the pass anyway.  Incomplete.  PFF scores the pass poorly but had the primary receiver run his route right, the pass would have been complete.  If the QB had more confidence in the OL, he might have taken the time to find the open checkdown.  

 

A QB on a high functioning offense will play better than a QB on a dysfunctional offense.  The Bills offense is closer to the "dysfunctional" end of the spectrum than the "high-functioning" end.  This isn't a good environment for any QB, let alone a rookie.  

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I've been watching this team for over 30 years now.  I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys.  I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special.  I feel optimism about Allen.

 

 

This is my take as well. 

 

Let's face it those of us Bills fans who've been around the block and paying attention to the parade of QB's over the last 20 years have earned a PhD in Advanced Crappy QB play.  Allen looks different to us and it's not just wishful thinking on our part. 

[Trogdor]

28 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

So your theory is: 

Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead?

 

Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions.  However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

 

I think the plays called are a product of his trouble with short passes. He also has a history of trying to push everything.  I don't agree with your theory that you can get an aggressive QB to checkdown, but I hope it's true. 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

31 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

So your theory is: 

Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead?

 

Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions.  However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

 

 

I have had the same thought.  He doesn’t entirely trust the finesse throw where he has to modulate his 1-100 arm power to say 55 power and would rather take the throw that requires 90-100 power.

 

What did Coach Arians say in the game.  Allen needs to learn to play the game at 5-15 yards instead of 30-50 yards?  (Something like that.)

 

i alos liked the analogy someone made on this site comparing Allen to a Golfer that loves the Driver and playing long ball.  Or the bowler who can whip strikes but is always 50/50 on picking up 1-2 pin spares.

[Jay_Fixit]

Dude just needs to take the check down. I can’t believe how often he passes the easy completion up.

 

He’ll learn. 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully.

[CincyBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

I think the plays called are a product of his trouble with short passes. He also has a history of trying to push everything.  I don't agree with your theory that you can get an aggressive QB to checkdown, but I hope it's true. 

The problem with trying to figure any of this out is that there are to many variables:

 

*  When watching the Bills try to execute a screen pass the first thing you notice is that Allen's short passing accuracy is the least of our worries.  It seems like the O-line has major problems in first selling the screen then getting out there to make a block.

 

*  With Shady banged up since Allen came back from his injury we probably have the worst set of receiving RB's in the NFL.  Ditto for our TE's. While it's one thing to want an effective short passing offense it's not so easy to do without decent route running & pass catching RB's & TE's. 

 

*  The Bills seem to be in a lot of 1st & long and 2nd & long situations due to the false stars and holding penalties.  In the NFL defensive coordinators know that 1st & 20 or 2nd & 15 just cry out for a dump off pass and they game plan accordingly.  It also means Allen is thinking about getting back big chunks of that yardage and that explains his urgency to push the ball downfield.  Patience is one of the last things a rookie gunslinger type QB learns.  Which was a point Arians made over & over again. 

 

*  The ability of the opposition to take our WR's out of the game with minimum effort allows them to better focus against the short passing game. 

 

*  Outside of Shady the Bills don't have the type of RB talent/experience that can differentiate when they need to pick up the blitz and when they're free to sneak out into the flat.  While Allen has to get better at spotting these guys and making the throw I've seen our RBs standing their waiting for a blitzer who didn't come yet NOT getting out of the backfield for the dump off. 

[hondo in seattle]

I remember watching Steve DeBerg in 1978 and wondering what the heck was this clown doing lining up behind center pretending to be a NFL QB?  He was unspeakably bad that season, completing just 45% of his passes with a 8-22 TD to INT ratio.  His passer rating of 40.0 wasn't quite Peterman bad but it was close.  

 

The next year DeBerg completed 60% of his passes and went on to have a decent career.   (DeBerg is #31 on the all-time passing yards list, only 4 spots below Kelly).  

 

Some guys get better with experience and coaching.  And some guys get better when they get the right cast around them.  Hopefully both things happen with Josh.  

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

9 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I remember watching Steve DeBerg in 1978 and wondering what the heck was this clown doing lining up behind center pretending to be a NFL QB?  He was unspeakably bad that season, completing just 45% of his passes with a 8-22 TD to INT ratio.  His passer rating of 40.0 wasn't quite Peterman bad but it was close.  

 

The next year DeBerg completed 60% of his passes and went on to have a decent career.   (DeBerg is #31 on the all-time passing yards list, only 4 spots below Kelly).  

 

Some guys get better with experience and coaching.  And some guys get better when they get the right cast around them.  Hopefully both things happen with Josh.  

 

The exciting part and maybe the fortunate/unfortunate part for Allen (depends) is the Bar that 2nd Year QBs of this current generation have set for upcoming 2nd year QBs is prettt high but not unreachable.

 

Wentz, Goff, Trubisky, Mahomes all made tremendous leaps in Season 2.  It was pretty significant.  From completion percentages, yards and touchdowns.  AND (barring a KC Upset this Sunday) all four led their squads to division titles in Season 2.

 

Now you are going to have peopel tell you next year “patience”, or “process” or “it takes time”.  Hogwash.  The league moves fast and Allen should be expected to deliver at least a run at the Diviison title and ample improvement in all statiscal categories mix. 

 

if you want to have high standards you need to hold your own team to the level that the rest of the league sets.

 

It can’t be one standard for the league and a lower standard for Buffalo just because you want to feel good about your team.

 

Next season Allen has some big improvements stats wise to accomplish...if he doesn’t take the next step like his contemporaries...then it’s time to start looking again.

Edited December 27, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar