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Is it starting to become a little more clear why the rebiuld?


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3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Actually, the difference in cap space is quite small...have to assume they don't sign Star if Marcel is still here, so the difference is all of $5M.

 

I'm near certain that, had they picked up Sammy's option, they wouldn't have traded for Benjamin, so it's a literal wash.

 

In fact, the only impact is that moving Sammy gave the team a 2nd-round pick that they used to trade up for Allen.

 

I dont understand your math.  How is it a wash?  One, its not just about the money, its about who we are paying the money too.  And second, how is KB a wash with Sammy financially?  Sammy is making $16M per, KB wasn't making close to that.  

 

We saved a ton moving on from Marcell and not keeping Sammy.  And as much as I have been a believer in Sammy's talents, its also painfully clear he is not remotely close to living up to expectations of his contract.  Rams replaced him for a guy that is only making $500k less than Sammy and gave up a first round pick to get him.  And that guy Cooks, is grossly out performing what Sammy did in 16 full games on the same roster.  Now Sammy has had a couple good games in KC but mostly been underwhelming in an offense that has a QB about to pass for around 50 TDs and around 5000 yards.  

 

So in two explosive offenses, Sammy is the one not performing statistically like his contract suggests.  In LA, his value went further than the stat sheet in terms of his downfield threat opening up the game for others...however, Cooks is playing the same role and still grossly out performing Sammy in LA.  

 

This front office got a 2nd round pick and a quality player that helped us make the playoffs last year for a WR they were never going to pay the money he would command and were going to lose for nothing.  Or they could have overpaid him to be an 800 yard receiver here too, which would be 300 yards more than he put up with McCoy, Goff, and Gurley as the #1 target (alleged #1 WR).  

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3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Marcel - not worth the money...lazy...is not improving the jags defense (you could make a case that he is hurting it for the amount he is getting paid but is not a team leader)

 

Sammy - foot is hurt again....not living up to the draft status and cost on 3rd team has played with two different very good QBs.

 

These are the players that we would have given contracts to if we did not trade them away for draft picks....our cap space would be nil.....and we would be right where we were.

 

This is why they were let go...this is why we rebiult...this is why Beane and McD did what they did.

 

 

 

 

It's been clear since the day they were moved.

 

What took you so long?

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13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

We only saved 2 mil against the cap by trading Dareus. Most of his contract turned into dead cap after the trade. 

 

There was an out in his contract after this season. Given that we barely save against the cap by trading him, I would've rather kept him around. 

 

Im fine with that, he doesn’t have the drive to be great anymore. Just an average NFL DT at this point.

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1 minute ago, QCity said:

 

 

It's been clear since the day they were moved.

 

What took you so long?

I have been there since day one of this......and taking a lot of heat for it I might add

 

This is directed to the non believers

15 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

We only saved 2 mil against the cap by trading Dareus. Most of his contract turned into dead cap after the trade. 

 

There was an out in his contract after this season. Given that we barely save against the cap by trading him, I would've rather kept him around. 

Why?  So he can drag down the team?

 

Or maybe your ok with him falling asleep in team meetings, smoking his fake weed, contantly being injured?

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12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I dont understand your math.  How is it a wash?  One, its not just about the money, its about who we are paying the money too.  And second, how is KB a wash with Sammy financially?  Sammy is making $16M per, KB wasn't making close to that.  

 

We saved a ton moving on from Marcell and not keeping Sammy.  And as much as I have been a believer in Sammy's talents, its also painfully clear he is not remotely close to living up to expectations of his contract.  Rams replaced him for a guy that is only making $500k less than Sammy and gave up a first round pick to get him.  And that guy Cooks, is grossly out performing what Sammy did in 16 full games on the same roster.  Now Sammy has had a couple good games in KC but mostly been underwhelming in an offense that has a QB about to pass for around 50 TDs and around 5000 yards.  

 

So in two explosive offenses, Sammy is the one not performing statistically like his contract suggests.  In LA, his value went further than the stat sheet in terms of his downfield threat opening up the game for others...however, Cooks is playing the same role and still grossly out performing Sammy in LA.  

 

This front office got a 2nd round pick and a quality player that helped us make the playoffs last year for a WR they were never going to pay the money he would command and were going to lose for nothing.  Or they could have overpaid him to be an 800 yard receiver here too, which would be 300 yards more than he put up with McCoy, Goff, and Gurley as the #1 target (alleged #1 WR).  

 

It's easy: had the team picked up Sammy's option year, he'd have been given a cap number equal to the average of the top 10 WRs in the league--that's true for any 1st round WR, and so his cap number would be identical to Benjamin's 

 

Moreover, he's a better player than Benjamin. Had the team kept him and let him walk in FA, they'd have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

And none of that is the point. I refuted John's claim that the team would have suffered cap-wise by keeping Dareus and Sammy--it's simply not true 

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4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Marcel - not worth the money...lazy...is not improving the jags defense (you could make a case that he is hurting it for the amount he is getting paid but is not a team leader)

 

Sammy - foot is hurt again....not living up to the draft status and cost on 3rd team has played with two different very good QBs.

 

These are the players that we would have given contracts to if we did not trade them away for draft picks....our cap space would be nil.....and we would be right where we were.

 

This is why they were let go...this is why we rebiult...this is why Beane and McD did what they did.

 

Is it becoming more clear?

 

Its not all perfect.....I wanted to keep Woods but he didnt want to stay.....Gilmore is still a good player with the patriots.....

Gilmore wouldn't come up and tackle my grandmother.   Woods is a SoCal softy; his agent pulled him out.

 

all your points are on target.. the process is working.    This was all abundantly clear to me a year ago.   Trust IT. 

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7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It's easy: had the team picked up Sammy's option year, he'd have been given a cap number equal to the average of the top 10 WRs in the league--that's true for any 1st round WR, and so his cap number would be identical to Benjamin's 

 

Moreover, he's a better player than Benjamin. Had the team kept him and let him walk in FA, they'd have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

And none of that is the point. I refuted John's claim that the team would have suffered cap-wise by keeping Dareus and Sammy--it's simply not true 

 

No, Sammy would not have played this year on that deal, he would be at $16M per.  Thats how this all played out.  They declined Sammys option before trading him and before acquiring KB.  Second, if they felt Sammy was worth top 10 money and a guy they wanted here for the rebuild, they would have picked the option up.  But Sammy hasn't even produced at a level worthy of top 10 pay, in fact he hasn't come close...and I was a guy who wanted to keep Sammy and I can easily admit that he hasn't produced anything like he should at the money he currently makes or the money he would have made on an option.  

 

And MOST importantly...we netted both a player (who helped us make playoffs last year) and an asset that helped us land Allen WITHOUT giving up any future picks.  So I cant see how this is a wash, we came up a lot moving on from Sammy when we did both for the cap and in our ability to rebuild this team.

 

Not to mention, Sammy said himself he wasn't the best teammate here and we got rid of Dareus attitude as well.  So like I said in my original post, its far from just a numbers game too.  

 

Beane made the right decisions on both, and for the record, I didn't love either decision when we made them.  I wanted to see what a healthy Sammy could do (although felt we got good value in trade, I just wanted to see a healthy Sammy out there) and also thought we might get more for MD if we waited til the offseason.  Beane proved he was right in both instances.  

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16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It's easy: had the team picked up Sammy's option year, he'd have been given a cap number equal to the average of the top 10 WRs in the league--that's true for any 1st round WR, and so his cap number would be identical to Benjamin's 

 

Moreover, he's a better player than Benjamin. Had the team kept him and let him walk in FA, they'd have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

And none of that is the point. I refuted John's claim that the team would have suffered cap-wise by keeping Dareus and Sammy--it's simply not true 

And if we would have given Marcel and Sammy extensions?   (I think I am understanding your point about if we got rid of them after this year)  My point is if we were not going to go with those players as being biulding blocks of our team then best to get rid of them when we could actually get draft picks for them.

 

Which we did...which was part of the rebiuld (and also why we are eating a dead cap crap sandwich this year)

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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, Sammy would not have played this year on that deal, he would be at $16M per.  Thats how this all played out.  They declined Sammys option before trading him and before acquiring KB.  Second, if they felt Sammy was worth top 10 money and a guy they wanted here for the rebuild, they would have picked the option up.  But Sammy hasn't even produced at a level worthy of top 10 pay, in fact he hasn't come close...and I was a guy who wanted to keep Sammy and I can easily admit that he hasn't produced anything like he should at the money he currently makes or the money he would have made on an option.  

 

And MOST importantly...we netted both a player (who helped us make playoffs last year) and an asset that helped us land Allen WITHOUT giving up any future picks.  So I cant see how this is a wash, we came up a lot moving on from Sammy when we did both for the cap and in our ability to rebuild this team.

 

Not to mention, Sammy said himself he wasn't the best teammate here and we got rid of Dareus attitude as well.  So like I said in my original post, its far from just a numbers game too.  

 

Beane made the right decisions on both, and for the record, I didn't love either decision when we made them.  I wanted to see what a healthy Sammy could do (although felt we got good value in trade, I just wanted to see a healthy Sammy out there) and also thought we might get more for MD if we waited til the offseason.  Beane proved he was right in both instances.  

 

Honestly man, this isn't complicated.

 

Had they picked up Sammy's option year, he'd have been under contract for this season at the same salary as KB--they were drafted in the same year 

 

If we aren't on the same page there then we're talking past each other 

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3 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

You wouldn’t swap a late second and Benjamin for a 3rd and Watkins?!

Watkins cap hit the next two years is 19.2 mil and 21 mil.  The guy's availability isn't good and neither are his stats.  No, I wouldn't want Watkins.

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6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

And if we would have given Marcel and Sammy extensions?   (I think I am understanding your point about if we got rid of them after this year)  My point is if we were not going to go with those players as being biulding blocks of our team then best to get rid of them when we could actually get draft picks for them.

 

Which we did...which was part of the rebiuld (and also why we are eating a dead cap crap sandwich this year)

 

Dareus is under contract for another 2 years, and Sammy would likely leave in FA, so he'd be gone just like Benjamin.

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4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Actually, the difference in cap space is quite small...have to assume they don't sign Star if Marcel is still here, so the difference is all of $5M.

 

I'm near certain that, had they picked up Sammy's option, they wouldn't have traded for Benjamin, so it's a literal wash.

 

In fact, the only impact is that moving Sammy gave the team a 2nd-round pick that they used to trade up for Allen.

 

 

I get ya, bandit, however it isn’t really a wash as Sammy is getting 16 million and kelvin was getting 8.

 

sorry if brought up later in the thread.

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5 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I get ya, bandit, however it isn’t really a wash as Sammy is getting 16 million and kelvin was getting 8.

 

sorry if brought up later in the thread.

 

No worries--I think folks are forgetting that the team could have had Sammy here for 2018 at the same cap figure as KB has they not declined his option year.

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The rebuild really comes to a peak in the next offseason.  How will they use the $90m in cap space wisely?   Will they have a strong draft?  

 

It’s too early to grade the rebuild.  Yes, making the playoffs while clearing cap space was good in 2017.  The results of the 2018 draft, specifically Allen and Edmunds will be the keys to it all. 

 

There are are many holes to fill and depth is a problem.  This loooks like a team being built for 2020’s.  

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2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Honestly man, this isn't complicated.

 

Had they picked up Sammy's option year, he'd have been under contract for this season at the same salary as KB--they were drafted in the same year 

 

If we aren't on the same page there then we're talking past each other 

 

Watkins was a higher pick in the 1st so he would be at a bit higher salary - $13M and change as I recall.

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3 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

We only saved 2 mil against the cap by trading Dareus. Most of his contract turned into dead cap after the trade. 

 

There was an out in his contract after this season. Given that we barely save against the cap by trading him, I would've rather kept him around. 

 

Trading Dareus wasn't just about cap savings. He wasn't playing to his contract, wasn't a great locker room fit and wasn't part of the culture they are trying to build. Further, the draft pick they got was used to draft Teller, who hopefully in the long run will prove to be a greater asset here than Dareus would be at this stage.

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I thought it was pretty clear to me.  Poor cap space average defense, average offense.  No franchise player with the top producers aging.  They are now one of the youngest teams with loads of cap space with a top defense.  If Allen keeps playing the same way they are in line for a perennial contender.  

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Sammy for a 2+ CB

Darby for. 3 + WR

buf 3  and 7 for Benjamin

buf 1 Glenn their 2 and 2 for Allen

Taylor and KC pick for Edmunds 

 

they keep sammy and Darby...

 

they trade 2 1st  Allen+ 3 from Tampa 

 

they have their 2, their 3, CLE 3. They’d have 3 players instead of just Edmunds.

 

 

 

 

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I won’t deny it’s a “rebuild”, but it may be the world’s fastest rebuild. We made the palyoffs last year after a 17 year drought. We will miss it this year due to the obvious moves. I would not be shocked AT ALL to make the playoffs next year. So if you want to complain about “only” making the playoffs 2 out of 3 years.....after a 17 year drought.....you just want to complain. The arrow is pointed up people, especially if Josh is the guy. 

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7 hours ago, Pablocruise said:

Beane understands, and expects value. Don't confuse "production " with "value". Value is a function of cost and production. Watkins has 40 catches, on an 8 million cap hit, which works out to 200,000 per catch,. Zay Jones has 41 catches, at a 1.5 million hit , or, app. 38,000 per catch. That is , of course, over-simplified, but for those complaining about  the players the Bills gave  up, look at how much they (and their replacements)are getting paid.


Watkins played on two different teams ranked #1 in offense. Sammy was a key contributor to those teams, although not the sole reason. Zay Jones plays on one of the worst offenses in the game. 

I suppose that is a different way of oversimplifying it. 

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16 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Marcel - not worth the money...lazy...is not improving the jags defense (you could make a case that he is hurting it for the amount he is getting paid but is not a team leader)

 

Sammy - foot is hurt again....not living up to the draft status and cost on 3rd team has played with two different very good QBs.

 

These are the players that we would have given contracts to if we did not trade them away for draft picks....our cap space would be nil.....and we would be right where we were.

 

This is why they were let go...this is why we rebiult...this is why Beane and McD did what they did.

 

Is it becoming more clear?

 

Its not all perfect.....I wanted to keep Woods but he didnt want to stay.....Gilmore is still a good player with the patriots.....

 

Another day, another round of excuses for Pegula and his minions.    You can pretend that the Bills are "on the right track", but it took Pegula seven years to rebuild the Sabres into a competitive squad after he dismantled the playoff team he purchased in 2011 in a league where it takes real incompetence to NOT make the playoffs.  Thinking the Bills are going to turn into a perennial playoff team any time in the near future seems like a real long-shot, even if Allen turns out to be a good NFL QB.

 

 

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If Bills can have another draft like the last two,

If the Bills can use their cap space to solidify the OL,

If Allen keeps progressing as he has,

No one will care that they gave up Marcel, Watkins, Gilmore, Woods and Darby.

How Bills got to where they are now and hopefully where they are going will make for an interesting storyline down the road.

Good insight from all of you.  

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45 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Another day, another round of excuses for Pegula and his minions.    You can pretend that the Bills are "on the right track", but it took Pegula seven years to rebuild the Sabres into a competitive squad after he dismantled the playoff team he purchased in 2011 in a league where it takes real incompetence to NOT make the playoffs.  Thinking the Bills are going to turn into a perennial playoff team any time in the near future seems like a real long-shot, even if Allen turns out to be a good NFL QB.

 

 

Such a pathetic post

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18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Marcel - not worth the money...lazy...is not improving the jags defense (you could make a case that he is hurting it for the amount he is getting paid but is not a team leader)

 

Sammy - foot is hurt again....not living up to the draft status and cost on 3rd team has played with two different very good QBs.

 

These are the players that we would have given contracts to if we did not trade them away for draft picks....our cap space would be nil.....and we would be right where we were.

 

This is why they were let go...this is why we rebiult...this is why Beane and McD did what they did.

 

Is it becoming more clear?

 

Its not all perfect.....I wanted to keep Woods but he didnt want to stay.....Gilmore is still a good player with the patriots.....

Why are you regurgitating the distant past?

 

Was ignoring the BU QB position part of the rebuild plan?

Was wasting a draft pick on Benjamin part of the rebuild plan?

Was cutting Benjamin so he could sign elsewhere (good buddy Andy Reid) part of the rebuild plan?

 

I could go on about TE, O-line, your boy $tar but it won't do any good.  A Hemet by any other name is still a kool aid drinking homer.

 

This organ-I-zation has had as many misses as hits. At times they appear as though they are in well over their collective head.  Too bad the Pegulas did not follow through with their plan to bring in a "football" guy to run the organ-I-zation.

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17 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

He gets referred to as the weak link in their secondary on their forums.

 

 

shh...Don't tell Bandit...He's still trying to push the Gilmore agenda in 2018!

 

Gilmore DID HAVE high expectations...Jesus Christ he was picked 10th overall.  He tackled like a high school player, got burnt by no other than Hogan, looked miserable when he got drafted by the Bills and finally he wasn't a leader.

 

But hey...to each their own!

 

Glad we got our defence and glad we got number 27 on our team.

11 hours ago, Augie said:

The worst thing about the trade up for Sammy is that we are still talking about it. He’s gone, and yet again not playing. It’s over and I think it’s healthy to move on.  

 

I see what you did there!!! Smart!

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2 minutes ago, KW95 said:

 

 

shh...Don't tell Bandit...He's still trying to push the Gilmore agenda in 2018!

 

Gilmore DID HAVE high expectations...Jesus Christ he was picked 10th overall.  He tackled like a high school player, got burnt by no other than Hogan, looked miserable when he got drafted by the Bills and finally he wasn't a leader.

 

But hey...to each their own!

 

Glad we got our defence and glad we got number 27 on our team.

 

Gotta love the NE fans--the only pro bowler in their secondary is the weak link!

 

 The only corner that didn't get abused by Nick Foles is the weak link.

 

 If folks on this board judged by play and not emotions they'd see the obvious 

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14 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Gilmore wouldn't come up and tackle my grandmother.   Woods is a SoCal softy; his agent pulled him out.

 

all your points are on target.. the process is working.    This was all abundantly clear to me a year ago.   Trust IT. 

 

What on earth are you talking about "Woods is a SoCal softy; his agent pulled him out"

 

McDermott (and whatever advice he was getting behind the scenes) didn't think Woods was worth the 5 year, 34M contract he got from the Rams.

He cost them $7M last year and is costing $5.4M this year, certainly way less than the Bills chose to pay for Corey Coleman (fully guaranteed) and Kelvin Benjamin.

 

Woods is 100% 'process' guy who willingly blocked and did whatever else was asked of him while here, putting up modest numbers because he got low targets. 

 

McBeane have made some good moves, but looking at their decisions at WR, they are very hard to defend based upon results, and it's hard to defend an argument to the contrary.  It's almost as though they're looking at the draft position of guys they bring in vs. actual in depth scouting.

 

OL would be another position where their choices are questionable.

 

 

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Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Gotta love the NE fans--the only pro bowler in their secondary is the weak link!

 

 The only corner that didn't get abused by Nick Foles is the weak link.

 

 If folks on this board judged by play and not emotions they'd see the obvious 

 

How you doing my friend? Wishing you a happy Holidays!

 

In regards to Gilmore, no worries.  We both not gonna change our ideas.  So no big deal. I was just busting your balls cuz its funny that 2 years later we still talking about Gilmore.

 

Also, the Eagles won the game!

 

Cheers mate.

 

All the best

 

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19 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

In fact, the only impact is that moving Sammy gave the team a 2nd-round pick that they used to trade up for Allen.

 

The motivation behind the tear down was first and foremost getting in position to draft a franchise QB specifically in the 2018 draft. Every other motivation behind the moves was secondary to that goal.

 

Sammy, Darby, Ragland, Marcel, Tyrod were all moved to acquire assets that not only would give Buffalo the fire power needed to reel in their QB through a draft day trade, but also to alleviate the the damage inflicted by the loss of draft picks that was sure to come due to the trade.

 

 

Edited by KennyDavisEyes
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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What on earth are you talking about "Woods is a SoCal softy; his agent pulled him out"

 

McDermott (and whatever advice he was getting behind the scenes) didn't think Woods was worth the 5 year, 34M contract he got from the Rams.

He cost them $7M last year and is costing $5.4M this year, certainly way less than the Bills chose to pay for Corey Coleman (fully guaranteed) and Kelvin Benjamin.

 

Woods is 100% 'process' guy who willingly blocked and did whatever else was asked of him while here, putting up modest numbers because he got low targets. 

 

McBeane have made some good moves, but looking at their decisions at WR, they are very hard to defend based upon results, and it's hard to defend an argument to the contrary.  It's almost as though they're looking at the draft position of guys they bring in vs. actual in depth scouting.

 

OL would be another position where their choices are questionable.

 

 

 

In his tenure with Buffalo, Woods did block well.....That's all he showed in Buffalo.   Good on him for having a breakout season last year and playing well this year!

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Just now, KW95 said:

 

In his tenure with Buffalo, Woods did block well.....That's all he showed in Buffalo.   Good on him for having a breakout season last year and playing well this year!

Well see, you gots to have a decent offensive game plan and someone to deliver the ball.  Letting Woods walk was a big mistake and I said so at the time.  People talk about him wanting out etc. yet they have yet to provide evidence. The Bills ignored him, he moved on.

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1 minute ago, KW95 said:

 

In his tenure with Buffalo, Woods did block well.....That's all he showed in Buffalo.   Good on him for having a breakout season last year and playing well this year!

 

Horsefeathers on "all he showed".  In 2016, he racked up 613 yds on a mighty 76 targets with a 67% catch percentage and looking at film, he was open far more often than he was targeted.  It doesn't take a math genius to project that if he got the 145 targets KB got in 2014, Woods could easily have  racked up >1300 yds.  And he was just a rock-steady gamer.

 

What he's shown in LA is not some "breakout season", he's playing there exactly as he played here, he just has a QB and an offense that utilize him more.  In fact his catch % is a little bit lower, because he is being asked to make more high degree of difficulty catches (and doing so very well).

I've said before, I'll say again now, McBeane have made some good moves.  But let's not pretend that every choice they made was forced on them or has shown good football judgement.  Some of their decisions have been head-scratching or bad.  WR choices would be an example of the latter.

 

 

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